Climate change (CC) and air pollution are closely interlinked environmental challenges that significantly affect human health and quality of life, especially in urban and industrialized regions. This study conducted a comprehensive investigation on how future climate scenarios may affect air quality and related human impacts, using a Southern European country (Portugal) for illustration. The study employed the most up-to-date future climate projections (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—SSP) that were dynamically downscaled for Portugal. High-resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model, providing data for relevant meteorological variables that most affect air quality, for three future climate scenarios: fossil-fueled development (SSP5-8.5), regional inequality (SSP3-7.0), and a middle-of-the-road future (SSP2-4.5). Current and future air quality was simulated with the CHIMERE chemical transport model driven by WRF downscaled data and future emissions from the SSP v2.0 database. Results show that CC will impact nitrogen oxides (NO2), ozone (O3), and particulate matter (PM) concentrations over Portugal, with only agricultural emissions increasing in all scenarios. PM and NO2 will decrease in urban areas, over the short and long term, mainly for more conservative scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), while O3 will increase over mainland Portugal (except for coastal/urban areas). Regarding human health, premature deaths are expected to be highest in urban areas, with reductions projected for NO2 and PM2.5 under SSP2-4.5 and increases in O3-related mortality under SSP5-8.5. Overall, SSP2-4.5 presents the most sustainable outcomes, highlighting the importance of integrating air quality management and health impact assessments into climate adaptation strategies to promote long-term environmental sustainability in southern Europe, consistent with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

ABSTRACT The Alboran Sea, located at the western Mediterranean Sea, hosts a diverse and ecologically important cetacean community, including endangered species. However, current marine protected areas (MPAs) in the region are limited in scope, and existing conservation strategies are insufficient to address the wide‐ranging ecological needs of cetaceans. This study aims to synthesise existing national and international conservation initiatives in the Alboran Sea, develop a prioritization framework and propose a global protection framework for the basin. Our main results highlight that the Alboran Sea presents diverse protection figures including multiple sites of community importance (SCI) for the conservation of cetaceans, as well as it has been designated a cetacean critical habitat, and three different important marine mammal areas (IMMAs) have been identified. In addition, by using species distribution models and a prioritization approach, we identified key areas requiring enhanced protection for multiple cetacean species. The prioritization analysis considered various conservation scenarios, including minimising area costs and accounting for human threats such as fishing and pollution. Three critical areas emerged from our analysis, bridging existing SCIs. So, in this context, we propose the establishment of new protected areas in the northern site of the basin and advocate for a large‐scale marine sanctuary—the Mediterranean Gate Sanctuary—due to the overlap of several national and international proposals for protection. A threat‐based, species‐ and space‐oriented conservation approach is recommended to effectively safeguard the region's biodiversity. By fostering stakeholder engagement and transnational collaboration, this sanctuary could address the ecological challenges cetaceans face and ensure sustainable marine management in the Alboran Sea.

Abstract Recent research on batteries has led to novel approaches for preventing TRP at both the module and pack levels. Since evidence for failure mechanisms and propagation processes is still emerging and limited, this study introduces a scenario-based framework to evaluate strategies for mitigating TRP. The focus is on the synergistic use of thermal barriers and liquid cooling systems in combination with a TRP containment mechanism. Four scenarios were analyzed under simplified assumptions to investigate whether the considered battery system could meet the safety targets for manned eVTOL and UAV applications. The results highlight the crucial role of TRP containment mechanisms, in addition to cell-to-cell TRP prevention techniques. Under the most conservative scenario, where no TRP containment mechanism is included, the safety targets could be achieved only for UAV applications with a moderate mass penalty. However, achieving the safety targets for manned eVTOL applications would require a TRP containment mechanism, which significantly increases the mass penalty. In more progressive scenarios, safety targets for both UAV and manned eVTOL applications could be met with a negligible mass penalty even without any TRP containment mechanism.

Impact evaluation of conservation actions is a crucial step in global efforts to curb the biodiversity crisis. Through robust impact evaluation, practitioners can assess the effectiveness of conservation strategies and optimize the use of limited resources. Despite a proliferation of methods and tools for evaluating conservation impact, no standardized method exists to assess and compare the impact, and global contribution, of species recovery programs. To address this gap, we devised an evaluation framework, based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green Status of Species (GSS), a global standard for measuring species recovery. We sought to provide a way for conservation program delivery partners to evaluate the effectiveness of their programs in contributing to global species recovery. We adapted 2 scenarios used in GSS assessments to estimate the impact of worldwide conservation actions on a species (the counterfactual current scenario and the future without conservation scenario), in order to propose a new assessment: the program GSS, a method allowing conservation practitioners to estimate the past and potential future impacts of a conservation program relative to the global impact. To identify the strengths and limitations of applying the GSS method at the program level and to gather proof of concept for our adaptation, we tested the proposed method on 16 species recovery programs. The program GSS approach identified past or future impacts of program actions on species status in 9 of the programs assessed. The detectability of program impact and the relative impact of the program compared with global impact were influenced by time since program establishment and program scope (i.e., proportion of a species' population or distribution included in the program). Our framework for program GSS assessments can provide practitioners with a standard, straightforward, and cost-effective way to communicate conservation successes and expected future impacts. Results from our program GSS framework can be compared with the global recovery of a species (conservation legacy and conservation impact) and thus indicate a program's contribution to the recovery of the entire species.

Gut microbiota are crucial for the fitness of endangered wildlife, yet how different conservation strategies affect these microbial ecosystems and their metabolic activities remains insufficiently understood. This study employed integrated metagenomic and metabolomic analyses to compare the gut microbial communities and fecal metabolomes of endangered golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) under three distinct conservation scenarios: natural wild, food provisioning, and captivity. We established a comprehensive species-specific gut microbial gene catalog and observed significant microbial and metabolic divergence associated with each conservation strategy. Monkeys in managed settings (captive and provisioned) exhibited larger gut microbial gene catalogs than wild individuals. While alpha diversity was highest in the provisioned group, both captive and provisioned groups showed notably altered microbial community structures and co-occurrence networks compared to the wild baseline. Captivity was linked to the most pronounced shifts, including a microbiome assembly more strongly governed by deterministic processes, reduced network stability, and an enrichment of habitat specialists, alongside an increased abundance of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and virulence factors (VFs), and distinct alterations in microbiota-metabolite co-variation patterns, particularly concerning amino acid metabolism. These findings highlight that food provisioning, when managed to emulate natural conditions, is associated with a less disruptive microbial and metabolic profile than intensive captivity, offering crucial insights for developing microbiome-informed conservation practices to enhance the health and long-term viability of this endangered primate.

<p>Carbon emissions have consistently been a focal point of attention for the Chinese government. As one of the key drivers of China's economy, Jiangsu province plays a pivotal role in achieving the dual carbon goals. This study is grounded in data from Jiangsu province spanning 2003 to 2022 and constructs an extended STIRPAT model to delve into the impact of factors such as population, GDP per capita, urbanization rate, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, and per capita energy consumption on carbon emissions. Additionally, this paper forecasts the future carbon emission trends of the 13 cities in Jiangsu province under different scenarios and explores the possibility of the province reaching its carbon peak.The findings reveal that cities exhibit varying degrees of sensitivity to influencing factors. Under the baseline scenario, cities like Wuxi and Zhenjiang are expected to achieve carbon peaking by 2030, whereas in more economically developed areas such as Nanjing and Suzhou, the timing of carbon peak may be relatively delayed. In the green development scenario, all cities across the province are projected to reach carbon peak ahead of schedule. Moreover, scenarios of industrial structure optimization and energy conservation are also found to accelerate the process of carbon peaking. However, under the extensive development scenario, only a few cities are likely to achieve carbon peaking before 2030. Accordingly, Jiangsu province should formulate differentiated carbon peak targets based on the specific circumstances of each city and strengthen inter-regional coordinated development. Simultaneously, the government needs to adopt more robust policy measures to facilitate the optimization and adjustment of the energy structure, the upgrading of industrial structures, and the enhancement of energy efficiency, thereby ensuring the successful realization of the province's carbon peak goals.</p>

Estimated radiation doses to potential adoptive-owners of dogs and cats rescued from Chernobyl and Fukushima.

Soil erosion affects agricultural and environmental sustainability and needs to be addressed. The Cagayan de Oro River Basin (CDORB), one of the major river basins in the Philippines, provides economic, social, and environmental services to the city and municipalities inside the basin. More than 70% of the area of the river basin is devoted to various forms of agricultural production. Land cover critically influences erosion dynamics as vegetation reduces rainfall impact, enhances infiltration, and limits sediment transport. This study employs the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) integrated with the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) to evaluate soil erosion under different rainfall return periods (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 years) and four land cover scenarios: No Reforestation Intervention (NI), Maximum Forest Cover (MF), Slope-Based Land Use (SB), and Reforestation on Public Domain (PD). Model results showed that soil loss increased with rainfall intensity, with NI yielding the highest average erosion of 1443 t ha−1. Conservation scenarios reduced erosion by up to 53% compared to NI. Among the conservation scenarios, MF, SB, and PD yielded average erosion of 21, 716, and 1304 t ha−1, respectively. While the MF scenario had the least soil loss, no space was assigned for economic production. On the other hand, the SB approach offered the best balance, halving erosion across all rainfall return periods, but at the same time has sufficient space available for economic production. These findings demonstrate the scientific value of integrating HEC-HMS and MUSLE for event-based erosion modeling and highlight how comparing multiple land-cover scenarios can inform data-driven land use planning and policy formulation for sustainable watershed management.

Quantifying sediment yield and discharge fluctuations using the GeoWEPP in response to soil and water conservation practices

We present a comprehensive study of the X-ray binary system XTE J1550-564, with the primary objective of analyzing the evolution of the black hole’s spin parameter. To achieve this objective, we embarked on the necessary step of identifying a plausible progenitor for the system. Using a set of models covering various parameter combinations, we were able to replicate the system’s observed characteristics within acceptable error margins, including fundamental parameters such as component masses, orbital period, donor luminosity, and effective temperature. The model results indicate the possibility of diverse evolutionary pathways for the system, highlighting the significant role played by the initial mass of the donor star and the efficiency of mass transfer episodes. While some models are well-aligned with estimates of the mass transfer rate, they all fall short of explaining the black hole’s observed moderate spin ( a * = 0.49). We also explored alternative magnetic braking prescriptions, finding that only an extreme and fully conservative scenario, based on the convection and rotation boosted prescription, can reproduce the observed spin and only in a marginal way. Our study attempts to shed light on the complex dynamics of black hole X-ray binaries and the challenges of explaining their observed properties with theoretical models.

Land-use change exerts a profound influence on ecosystem services (ES), and accurately assessing its spatiotemporal dynamics is essential for achieving regional sustainability. Taking Shandong Province as a case study, this research integrates the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate the impacts of land-use changes on carbon storage and habitat quality in Shandong Province between 2000 and 2020, and to project their dynamics under different scenarios for 2030. The InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model was employed to reassess variations in carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). The main findings are as follows: (1) Cultivated land decreased by 12.3%, while construction land expanded by 51.04%, predominantly replacing farmland and forested areas, resulting in a distinct spatial pattern characterized by an “urbanized east and agricultural west.” (2) Carbon storage declined by approximately 63 million tons, primarily due to urban expansion. (3) Habitat quality experienced a 3.6% decrease, with significant ecological fragmentation identified in the central mountainous regions and the Yellow River Delta, driven by intensified urbanization and agricultural activities. (4) Future scenario simulations indicate that under the ecological conservation scenario, carbon storage could increase by 12.5% and habitat quality could reach 0.572 by 2040; in contrast, the natural development scenario suggests ongoing degradation. These findings highlight the trade-offs between land development and ecosystem services, emphasizing the necessity of reinforcing ecological zoning, compensation mechanisms, and the establishment of ecological corridors. This study provides a scientific basis for advancing sustainable land-use planning and ecosystem management.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-25097-y.

ABSTRACT Conventional oil and gas wells produce wastewater, or brine, that has a beneficial use as a road deicer. However, the brine also contains naturally occurring radium (Ra-226 and Ra-228). This work modeled radiation doses to an adult and a 15-year-old receptor (the highest dose age group) from two scenarios. Scenario 1 considers exposures during recreational activities from deicer runoff to roadside soils following repeated deicer applications. Scenario 2 assumes that a residence with farming is built on soil having the same radiation content as the roadside soils in Scenario 1. Maximum detected Ra-226 and Ra-228 levels in brine samples taken from six conventional gas wells located in northern Ohio were used, along with conservative assumptions, to model annual whole-body doses. Accounting for Ra-226 and Ra-228 decay and assuming limited radium buildup in roadside soil, as supported by experimental and empirical evidence, modeled doses for an adult and 15-year-old were predicted to reach an asymptote at approximately year 50 of 0.0077 and 0.012 millisieverts per year (mSv/yr), respectively, in Scenario 1, and 0.025 and 0.040 mSv/yr in Scenario 2. Assuming no limit on buildup and the northern Ohio average of 30 brine applications per season, accumulated doses were predicted as 0.0010 mSv/yr for an adult and 0.0087 mSv/yr for a 15-year-old, respectively, in Scenario 1 at year 50 and 0.19 and 0.30 mSv/yr in Scenario 2. These dose estimates are within the U.S. EPA and NRC standards of 0.25 to 1 mSv/yr for protecting the general public and well below the natural background dose. This analysis predicts that use of conventional gas-well brine as a road deicer is unlikely to pose an unacceptable radiation risk to the public. The analysis is sensitive to the level of radiation buildup in soils; more field studies on radium transport processes are warranted. Implications: The manuscript entitled “Public Radiation Dose from Conventional Gas-Well Produced Water Used as a Pavement Deicer” presents modeled radiation doses to the public from two conservative scenarios in which conventional gas-well wastewater brine is used as a pavement deicer. Given the heightened public interest in potential human health risks from oil and gas drilling operations, this analysis offers timely insight into a relevant topic. In particular, it demonstrates that such brine can be beneficially used as a deicer without unacceptable risk from radiation even under highly conservative scenarios.

The article presents the findings on assessment of dose loads in the natural population of Siberian roe deer ( Capreolus pygargus Pal., 1771) living in the Semipalatinsk Test Site area. The calculated expected dose rate for roe deer living in the "conditionally background" area of the STS will not exceed 3.7 µGy/day, while for those in areas affected by radioactive fallout plumes, it will not exceed 150 µGy/day. The main contribution to the dose comes from internal exposure to 90 Sr. According to radiation effect scales for biota, depending on the dose rate of chronic exposure in various animal species, the calculated dose for the “conditionally background” areas of the STS correspond to natural background radiation. In areas with radioactive fallout plumes at the STS, the expected dose may reach the threshold for minor cytogenetic effects and stimulation in sensitive vertebrate species. According to the set of derived reference levels, the calculated dose for roe deer living in the “conditionally background” areas of the STS correspond to natural background radiation. In contrast, the doses calculated for roe deer living in areas with radioactive fallout plumes at the STS indicate an extremely low probability of any biological effects. At the technical sites of the STS, under the most conservative exposure scenario, the maximum possible dose rates may range from 1.6·10 4 –1.7·10 7 µGy/day. There are risks of a fairly wide range of effects, up to the occurrence of fatal radiation sickness (at the “Experimental Field”, “4” and “4A” technical sites). According to the risk of various effects, the studied areas can be arranged in the following decreasing order: RWA test sites (“4” and “4A”) > Experimental Field test locations > Degelen test locations > Balapan test locations > Sary-Uzen test locations > area of radioactive fallout plumes at the STS > areas of the STS without radioactive fallout plumes and test locations.

: Objective: This paper analyzes a multi-country sheet of Ayurvedic products to quantify demand across continents, identify leading countries and product clusters, and generate short- to mid‑term projections under two growth scenarios. Background: Global interest in traditional and herbal products has accelerated, with WHO backing a dedicated Global Traditional Medicine Centre and governments digitizing knowledge assets; market estimates for Ayurveda and herbal supplements indicate strong growth trajectories. Methods: We cleaned the dataset, aggregated Grand Total values at continent and country levels, and compared product portfolios via a continent–product heatmap. We then modelled forward projections (2025–2030) using compound annual growth rates (CAGR) representing (a) a conservative herbal‑supplements path (8.9%) and (b) a high‑growth Ayurveda path (27.2%). Results: The sheet indicates pronounced geographic concentration of demand, with a small set of countries contributing a large share of the Grand Total. Product mix differs materially by continent, suggesting localization of preferences and supply chains. Under the conservative scenario the global total approximately doubles over 7 years, whereas the high‑growth path yields a 4–5× expansion. Implications: Distinct product–continent niches (e.g., turmeric extract dominance in select regions; emerging interest in ashwagandha and boswellia) can guide portfolio and sourcing strategies. Conclusions: Combining granular sheet analytics with externally validated growth ranges offers a transparent, scenario‑based view of opportunity while flagging data limitations (single snapshot, no time series).

Objective: This paper analyzes a multi-country sheet of Ayurvedic products to quantify demand across continents, identify leading countries and product clusters, and generate short- to mid‑term projections under two growth scenarios. Background: Global interest in traditional and herbal products has accelerated, with WHO backing a dedicated Global Traditional Medicine Centre and governments digitizing knowledge assets; market estimates for Ayurveda and herbal supplements indicate strong growth trajectories. Methods: We cleaned the dataset, aggregated Grand Total values at continent and country levels, and compared product portfolios via a continent–product heatmap. We then modelled forward projections (2025–2030) using compound annual growth rates (CAGR) representing (a) a conservative herbal‑supplements path (8.9%) and (b) a high‑growth Ayurveda path (27.2%). Results: The sheet indicates pronounced geographic concentration of demand, with a small set of countries contributing a large share of the Grand Total. Product mix differs materially by continent, suggesting localization of preferences and supply chains. Under the conservative scenario the global total approximately doubles over 7 years, whereas the high‑growth path yields a 4–5× expansion. Implications: Distinct product–continent niches (e.g., turmeric extract dominance in select regions; emerging interest in ashwagandha and boswellia) can guide portfolio and sourcing strategies. Conclusions: Combining granular sheet analytics with externally validated growth ranges offers a transparent, scenario‑based view of opportunity while flagging data limitations (single snapshot, no time series).

The Mae Chang watershed is part of the headwaters of the Wang River, located in Lampang Province in Northern Thailand. Resource pressures at forest-agriculture-extractive frontiers make this landscape crucial for studying land-habitat conversion and guiding sustainable land-use planning. Thus, this study interpreted LULC (1989, 2005, 2013, 2021) and projected LULC for 2029 and 2037 under BAU, conservation (CON), and development (DEV) scenarios using TerrSet’s LCM-MLP with local drivers, isolating intervention effects by contrasting CON/DEV (with constraint and incentive (CI) layers) against BAU (no CI). From 1989 to 2021, deciduous forest declined 23.3% (-249.01 km²), from 1,070.41 to 821.40 km² (65.40→50.18% of the watershed; -15.2 percentage points), while field crops increased by 104.7%, perennial crops by 97.3%, mines/pits by 240.8%, and urban areas by 28.8% based on human activity. Sub-model accuracies ranged 53-92%, and validation achieved Kstandard 0.824, Kno 0.861, Klocation 0.893, exceeding the success threshold. The three future scenarios yielded similar projected areas in both 2029 and 2037 but there were location differences. The deciduous forest area in 2029 and 2037 declined by 22.3% and 31.5%, respectively for all scenarios compared with 2021. The CON scenario outperformed BAU/DEV because strict no-conversion constraints in protected forests and restricted area effectively prevent ongoing deforestation, offering a practical simulation-based tool to support and implement land-use policies at local and regional scales. These findings provide a validated, transferable framework that isolates policy effects and supports evidence-based land-use planning in tropical headwatersheds.

This study examines Indonesia's defense equipment modernization in the evolving Indo-Pacific security environment shaped by the establishment of AUKUS (Australia–United Kingdom–United States security pact). Using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), the research estimates the impact of different defense budget allocation scenarios on Indonesia's capability development, focusing on air, naval, and cyber defense. The model incorporates uncertainties such as GDP growth, inflation, exchange rates, procurement costs, technological advancements, and regional security dynamics from 2025 to 2045. Three scenarios are analysed: (1) Conservative, with defense spending limited to 2–3% of GDP; (2) Moderate, with gradual increases to 3–3.5% of GDP; and (3) Ambitious, maintaining 4% of GDP. Findings indicate that under the Conservative Scenario, Indonesia faces a 65% probability of failing to meet Minimum Essential Force (MEF) targets by 2035, particularly in naval and air power. The Moderate Scenario shows a 55% probability of meeting MEF by 2035, although cyber defense remains underfunded. In contrast, the Ambitious Scenario provides a 70% probability of Indonesia surpassing MEF targets and achieving advanced deterrence capabilities by 2045. The results demonstrate that fiscal commitment is the most decisive factor in shaping modernization outcomes, although efficiency in procurement, domestic defense industry growth, and regional partnerships can significantly influence success. While AUKUS heightens arms competition, it also presents opportunities for Indonesia to pursue strategic cooperation and technology access. Overall, MCS offers a probabilistic framework that underscores the importance of sustained budgetary support, adaptive strategies, and domestic industrial development in advancing Indonesia's long-term defense modernisation.

Enhancing indoor environmental quality while reducing building energy consumption represents a critical challenge for sustainable building design, particularly in hot arid climates where cooling loads dominate energy use. Despite extensive research on green wall systems (GWSs), robust quantitative data on their combined impact on air quality and thermal performance in real-world office environments remains limited. This research quantified the synergistic effects of an active indoor green wall system on key indoor air quality indicators and cooling energy consumption in a contemporary office environment. A comparative field study was conducted over 12 months in two identical office rooms in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, with one room serving as a control while the other was retrofitted with a modular hydroponic green wall system. High-resolution sensors continuously monitored indoor CO2, volatile organic compounds via photoionization detection (VOC_PID; isobutylene-equivalent), and PM2.5 concentrations, alongside dedicated sub-metering of cooling energy consumption. The green wall system achieved statistically significant improvements across all parameters: 14.1% reduction in CO2 concentrations during occupied hours, 28.1% reduction in volatile organic compounds, 20.9% reduction in PM2.5, and 13.5% reduction in cooling energy consumption (574.5 kWh annually). Economic analysis indicated financial viability (2.0-year payback; benefit–cost ratio 3.0; 15-year net present value SAR 31,865). Productivity-related benefits were valued from published relationships rather than measured in this study; base-case viability remained strictly positive in energy-only and conservative sensitivity scenarios. Strong correlations were established between evapotranspiration rates and cooling benefits (r = 0.734), with peak performance during summer months reaching 17.1% energy savings. Active indoor GWSs effectively function as multifunctional strategies, delivering simultaneous air quality improvements and measurable cooling energy reductions through evapotranspiration-mediated mechanisms, supporting their integration into sustainable building design practices.

Research on the scrap volume and recyclable resource potential of residential photovoltaic （PV） systems is directly related to constructing a circular economy model for the PV industry and informs future cost-benefit analysis. It also significantly impacts environmental protection and sustainable development across residential sectors in different regions. This study is crucial for developing effective recycling policies and promoting resource circularity and also provides technical support for the strategic construction and layout of PV recycling and disposal capacities across regions. Given that the lifespan and installed capacity of residential PV systems vary regionally due to rooftop space limitations， this study utilizes material flow and spatiotemporal heterogeneity analyses to forecast future scrap volumes and recycling potentials for residential PV systems nationwide and by region. The results indicate that China's cumulative installed capacity for residential PV will reach 467.33 GW by 2050. Under conservative， baseline， and high-growth scenarios， and based on early and conventional failure modes， cumulative scrap volume is highest under the high-growth scenario， reaching 705.11 GW and 627.80 GW， respectively， approximately 200% higher than in the conservative scenario. In the conventional failure scenario， the total recyclable resource content from decommissioned components is 2.027 million tons， which is 49.8% higher than the content of the conservative scenario and 45.17% lower than the content of the high-growth scenario. From a spatiotemporal perspective， provinces with early development and proactive policy implementation， such as Shandong and Hebei， are expected to reach scrap peaks around 2042. Recycling policies and system improvements should be prioritized in these areas. Although Guangdong， Zhejiang， and Jiangsu have later scrap peaks， they still require early planning for recycling funds and technological innovation. Regions such as Sichuan， Guizhou， and Chongqing， despite lower scrap volumes， must not overlook the handling of toxic metals. It is recommended that the operation and maintenance management of residential PV systems be further strengthened by enhancing maintenance quality， incorporating intelligent management technologies， and implementing replacement programs. Additionally， regional differences should be considered to plan recycling and disposal capacities for decommissioned PV modules strategically.

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is a key driving factor influencing the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage. In high-groundwater-level coal resource-based cities (HGCRBCs), the interplay of urban expansion, mining disturbances, and land reclamation makes the carbon storage evolution process more complex. This study takes Jining, Zaozhuang, and Heze cities in Shandong Province as the research area and constructs a coupled analytical framework of “mining–reclamation–carbon storage” by integrating the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), Probability Integral Method (PIM), InVEST, and Grey Multi-Objective Programming (GMOP) models. It systematically evaluates the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon storage changes from 2000 to 2020 and simulates the carbon storage responses under different development scenarios in 2030. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage in the region decreased by 31.53 Tg, with cropland conversion to construction land and water bodies being the primary carbon loss pathways, contributing up to 89.86% of the total carbon loss. (2) Among the 16 major LULC transition paths identified, single-process drivers dominated carbon storage changes. Specifically, urban expansion and mining activities individually accounted for nearly 70% and 8.65% of the carbon loss, respectively. Although the reclamation path contributed to a recovery of 1.72 Tg of carbon storage, it could not fully offset the loss caused by mining. (3) Future scenario simulations indicate that the ecological conservation scenario yields the highest carbon storage, while the economic development scenario results in the lowest. Mining activities generally lead to approximately 3.5 Tg of carbon loss, while post-mining reclamation can restore about 72% of the loss.