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  • Baseline Scenario
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  • Research Article
  • 10.1144/geoenergy2025-053
Natural Hydrogen in Europe: A Continental-Scale Geological Prospectivity Assessment
  • Apr 23, 2026
  • Geoenergy
  • Florian H J Willemsen + 1 more

Natural hydrogen, generated by geological processes within the Earth's crust, is increasingly recognized as a potential low carbon energy resource. Unlike green hydrogen, which is currently limited by high production costs, natural hydrogen may offer a continuous and cheaper supply if accessible at scale. Yet systematic assessments of its occurrence remain scarce, particularly at continental scales. Here we present the first Europe-wide natural hydrogen prospectivity map, integrating geological indicators of hydrogen generation (serpentinization, radiolysis, and deep sources), reservoir quality, and sealing capacity. To quantify geological uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations were used to generate conservative, median, and optimistic prospectivity scenarios. Our results highlight significant high-potential regions (prospectivity >0.8, ∼200.000 km²), particularly in Hungary, Denmark, Poland, and Serbia, with model predictions consistent with many known natural hydrogen occurrences., This work identifies priority regions for exploration and offers first-order resource estimates that can inform Europe's hydrogen strategy. By linking geological prospectivity to energy transition goals, we demonstrate that natural hydrogen could complement renewable hydrogen pathways and enhance long-term energy security.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3390/nu18071142
Ketoanalogue-Supplemented Low-Protein Diet in Patients with Stage 4+ Chronic Kidney Disease in Italy: A Cost-Utility Analysis.
  • Apr 2, 2026
  • Nutrients
  • Luca De Nicola + 10 more

Background/Objectives: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with substantial clinical and economic burden, largely driven by progression to dialysis. Nutritional interventions have shown potential in delaying disease progression, yet evidence on their cost-effectiveness remains limited. This study evaluated the long-term cost-utility profile of a low-protein diet supplemented with ketoanalogues (s-LPD) versus a standard low-protein diet (LPD) in patients with stage 4+ CKD from both the Italian National Health System (NHS) and societal perspectives. Methods: A Markov model with monthly cycles simulated disease progression from pre-dialysis to dialysis or death. Clinical inputs were derived from the published literature, while costs reflected 2024 Italian tariffs. Three effectiveness scenarios (optimistic, conservative, and pessimistic) were explored to account for uncertainty in the treatment effect. Outcomes included costs, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-utility ratios. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed model robustness. Results: Across all scenarios, s-LPD improved survival (up to +0.59 life-years), increased QALYs (up to +0.48), and delayed dialysis initiation (up to +2.88 years) compared with LPD. From the NHS perspective, s-LPD was dominant in the optimistic scenario and cost-effective in both conservative and pessimistic scenarios, with cost savings or only a marginal cost that increases under extreme assumptions. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed a high probability of cost-effectiveness across scenarios. Results remained robust in additional scenario analyses, including the societal perspective. Conclusions: This first Italian cost-utility analysis of s-LPD highlights that s-LPD is a cost-effective strategy for patients with advanced CKD, offering clinically meaningful benefits while reducing or containing healthcare costs. These findings support the adoption of s-LPD as part of conservative management strategies aimed at safely delaying dialysis initiation.

  • Research Article
  • 10.21101/cejph.a8918
Railway accident with benzene release into the environment in 2025: estimation of health risks from available data.
  • Mar 31, 2026
  • Central European journal of public health
  • Milan Tuček

The aim of the study was to assess potential health risks associated with a large-scale environmental release of benzene following a railway accident in Moravia, Czech Republic, in 2025, with emphasis on differences between population and occupational exposure. An assessment of potential health risks associated with exposure was performed using available environmental monitoring data. Conservative exposure scenarios were defined for the general population and for remediation workers. Non-carcinogenic risk was expressed as the hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk as excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR). Short-term peaks in ambient air benzene concentrations were observed in the period immediately following the accident and during remediation activities, with occasional hourly values reaching the order of tens of µg.m-3. During the accident and its immediate aftermath, benzene concentrations at the accident site ranged from < LOQ-32.3 mg.m-3 (LOQ - limit of quantification) in soil gas (March-April 2025), 0.0004-2.43 g.l-1 in groundwater (March-May 2025), < LOQ-19.9 µg.l-1 in surface water (March-June 2025), and < LOQ-849.7 mg.kg-1 in soils (March-April 2025). Extreme values were confined to the immediate accident zone and represented the dominant exposure for workers rather than residents. For the general population, HQ values remained below 1 and ELCR ranged from 10-6 to 10-5. In contrast, remediation workers exhibited substantially higher risks, with HQ values reaching 104-105 and ELCR up to 10-3, particularly for inhalation exposure. While population exposure remained within acceptable limits, occupational exposure during remediation represented the dominant health risk. Two workers involved in remediation activities were excluded from further work based on the results of biological monitoring of benzene exposure. The results highlight the need for strict exposure control and health surveillance of exposed workers.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1371/journal.pone.0346028
Effects of two side-by-side camera trap deployments on estimations of richness, abundance, and the detection of medium- and large-sized mammals.
  • Mar 27, 2026
  • PloS one
  • Sergio Guerrero-Vázquez + 4 more

Medium- and large-sized mammals play key ecological roles but remain difficult to monitor due to low detectability and logistical constraints. Camera traps are widely used to address these challenges; however, survey outcomes are strongly influenced by sampling design. In this study, we evaluated how deploying two side-by-side camera traps per site, compared with a single-camera configuration, affects sampling efficiency and information gain in a small-scale monitoring grid. We quantified differences in detected species richness, number of photographic records, and time to first detection between single- and double-camera deployments. Using two cameras per site significantly increased detected species richness and the number of records per species and reduced time to first detection. Survival analyses showed that detection occurred more than twice as fast under the double-camera design, with particularly strong gains for rarely detected species. Comparisons with a conservative single-camera scenario further highlighted the risk of delayed or missed detections under limited sampling effort. Rather than testing novel ecological hypotheses, our results provide empirically grounded guidance on how site-level camera-trap deployment choices influence detection efficiency, inventory completeness, and the reliability of commonly used biodiversity metrics.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1245/s10434-026-19412-8
Reducing Plastic Surgery's Silicone Footprint: Modeling Shipping Costs for Breast Implants and Tissue Expanders.
  • Mar 14, 2026
  • Annals of surgical oncology
  • Tara D Thomason + 6 more

In the traditional ordering model, plastic surgeons often request 3-4 different sizes of implants, tissue expanders (TEs), and sizers per procedure and order duplicates as backup. This can result in large orders, ranging from 15 to 32 items, with most of the materials remaining unused and ultimately being shipped back to the manufacturer. This study aims to quantify the costs incurred by shipping materials used in breast augmentations and reconstructions. A model was constructed to tabulate annual shipping costs, built upon key inputs for annual ordering volumes and shipping rates that were obtained through secondary sources (e.g., courier websites, American Society of Plastic Surgery [ASPS] statistics data), as well as implant/TE sizes and weights. Extreme and conservative scenarios of ordering behavior were simulated in the model to deduce an expected range and most realistic median figure of annual shipping costs. In the base case scenario where three sizes were ordered for all cases using overnight shipping, the total shipping costs for 2023 were $125.3 million. Compared with this, choosing ground shipping for three sizes cost $34.5 million (72.5% less), while ordering four sizes with overnight shipping cost $173.4 million (38.4% more). Implant/TE shipping costs are significant and can total tens to hundreds of millions of dollars depending on the shipping type and total sizes ordered. These costs are handed down to multiple stakeholders in the healthcare system, including physician practices, implant companies, and patients. The results of this study may encourage the use of more cost-efficient methods to decrease overall waste.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3390/app16062678
From 2D to 3D: A Generative Model from Single Image to Digital 3D of Chinese Three Gorges Cultural Relics
  • Mar 11, 2026
  • Applied Sciences
  • Guang Wu + 4 more

The acquisition of high-quality three-dimensional (3D) models of cultural relics often relies on expensive scanning equipment or multi-view image capture, which limits large-scale deployment in real-world heritage conservation scenarios. Large-scale water impoundment in the Three Gorges region has resulted in the permanent submergence of numerous cultural relics and archaeological remains. For many of these artifacts, only a single two-dimensional image remains as the sole visual record, posing significant challenges for reconstructing their original three-dimensional geometry and appearance. This limitation renders traditional multi-view reconstruction and physical scanning methods infeasible. To address this challenge, we propose a generative framework for reconstructing high-fidelity 3D digital models of Chinese Three Gorges cultural relics from a single two-dimensional (2D) image. Building upon recent advances in generative 3D representation learning, the proposed method adopts a transformer-based image-to-triplane architecture to infer an implicit 3D representation directly from a single RGB image. A vision transformer encoder is employed to extract global and local visual features, which are subsequently projected into a compact triplane representation through a cross-attention-based decoder. The reconstructed triplane features are further decoded by a neural radiance field (NeRF) to synthesize dense geometry and appearance, enabling accurate mesh extraction and novel-view rendering. To enhance robustness under in-the-wild conditions, the model implicitly estimates camera parameters during inference without relying on explicit calibration information. The proposed method is evaluated on a dataset of Chinese Three Gorges cultural relics, covering diverse artifact categories and visual styles. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework is capable of producing structurally coherent and visually consistent 3D reconstructions from a single image, effectively preserving key morphological characteristics of cultural relics under limited data conditions. Compared with existing single-image and multi-view reconstruction baselines, the proposed framework exhibits better reconstruction accuracy, visual consistency, and generalization capability. This study provides an efficient and scalable solution for the digital reconstruction of cultural relics and offers a practical pathway for large-scale 3D digitization of heritage artifacts from archival images. This work provides a practical solution for the digital reconstruction of submerged heritage artifacts and contributes to the application of generative 3D modeling techniques in cultural heritage preservation and restoration.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3390/foods15050964
Migration and Safety Assessment of 20 Antioxidants in 39 Disposable Biodegradable Tableware Products.
  • Mar 9, 2026
  • Foods (Basel, Switzerland)
  • Liqian Wang + 6 more

(1) Background: The safety of antioxidants (AOs) in disposable biodegradable tableware products remains insufficiently understood. (2) Methods: The migration of 20 AOs from 39 disposable biodegradable tableware under multiple usage conditions was investigated by Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry. Their potential exposure risks were evaluated using three risk assessment frameworks (EU, FDA, and Monte Carlo simulation). (3) Results: Ten AOs were detected in 95% ethanol, with Irganox 1010 showing the highest migration (0.29 ± 0.62 mg/kg). Starch-based products exhibited a greater variety and higher migration of AOs compared to PLA-based and fiber-based products. Food simulant type, temperature, and time exerted a more significant effect on AO migration than microwave and ultraviolet treatments. An analysis method for six typical AOs in soybean oil using freezing degreasing was established, which demonstrated good recoveries (77.6-110.3%) and relative standard deviations (1.7-14.7%). Four AOs were detected in soybean oil, with Irganox 1010 showing the highest migration (603.7 × 10-3 mg/kg). Utilizing high-percentile conservative exposure scenarios derived from Monte Carlo simulation, Irganox 1010 may pose a health risk to humans under high-dose exposure in soybean oil. (4) Conclusions: This study provides a basis for the safety evaluation of AOs in disposable biodegradable tableware.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1016/j.isci.2026.114830
Quantitative assessment of water-related ecological security patterns based on ecosystem service flows: A case study of Jilin Province, China.
  • Mar 1, 2026
  • iScience
  • Qing Ru + 5 more

Quantitative assessment of water-related ecological security patterns based on ecosystem service flows: A case study of Jilin Province, China.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1049/icp.2025.4354
Economic assessment of battery hosting capacity with grid-aware optimization
  • Mar 1, 2026
  • IET Conference Proceedings
  • Markus Miller + 2 more

Battery energy storage system (BESS) investors typically seek grid connections at locations determined by non-grid factors such as land availability, creating potential mismatches with optimal grid integration points. Compounding this challenge, traditional hosting capacity assessments rely on conservative worst-case scenarios that significantly underestimate viable BESS capacities and reduce investment attractiveness. This paper presents a Multi-Period Quadratic Constraint Optimal Power Flow framework for one-year hourly operations that evaluates cooperative investment models where investors grant operational control to distribution system operators, enabling mutual benefits through larger installations and optimized grid operation. The convex optimization leads to fast solving with approximately 160 seconds. The methodology integrates state-of-charge temporal depen-dencies, degradation costs, and penalty terms to model comprehensive BESS operation while enforcing voltage, thermal line, and power balance constraints. Applied to the CIGRE MV benchmark network with 2024 market data, the framework system-atically compares standalone arbitrage operation against grid-integrated scenarios through Net Present Value analysis. Results identify an optimal BESS capacity of 30 MWh at a single connection point, with network bottlenecks limiting further capacity expansion. Although line congestion hours increase substantially as capacity grows, the configuration remains economically attractive, demonstrating that cooperative operational frameworks unlock significant value for both investors and grid operators while maintaining system reliability.

  • Research Article
  • 10.9765/kscoe.2026.38.1.21
Techno-Economic and Commercial Feasibility Analysis of a Mobile Wave Energy System Utilizing Second-Life EV Batteries
  • Feb 28, 2026
  • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
  • Min Gu Kim + 3 more

This study evaluates the techno-economic and commercialization feasibility of a 10-MW mobile wave energy system integrated with second-life EV battery energy storage. A hybrid swing-plate–cylinder converter and a coupled hydrodynamic–mooring–PTO simulation framework were developed to ensure survivability and operational efficiency under typhoon-level seas. Economic analysis assumes an 80 % capacity factor, SMP of 90 KRW/kWh, REC of 62.7 KRW/kWh, and a total CAPEX of 60 billion KRW. The resulting indicators are B/C=1.18, NPV≒14.0 billion KRW, and IRR=6.6 %. Even in conservative scenarios (CAPEX 75 billion KRW, price −10 KRW/kWh), B/C remains near 1.0, while favorable conditions raise B/C to 1.6~2.1. A commercialization strategy through a special-purpose company (SPC) including utilities, port authorities, and shipyards is proposed. The ESS employs EV battery packs in pack-as-is configuration, offering cost advantages and enabling maritime fast-charging or island microgrids. The concept aligns with Korea’s net-zero policy and demonstrates high export potential to wave-resource-rich regions.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3390/heritage9020082
Environmental Trade-Offs Between Essential Oil and Quaternary Ammonium Biocides in Cultural Heritage Conservation
  • Feb 21, 2026
  • Heritage
  • Andrea Macchia + 7 more

Quaternary ammonium compounds (QACs) have dominated biocidal practice in cultural heritage conservation for decades, yet growing evidence of environmental persistence, aquatic ecotoxicity, and antimicrobial resistance induction has prompted the search for safer alternatives. Essential oils (EO) have emerged as promising bio-based biocides, though their environmental performance has rarely been quantified through rigorous life cycle approaches. This study presents a comparative Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) of EO-based and QAC-based biocidal formulations across representative conservation scenarios, following ISO 14040/14044 standards and the Environmental Footprint 3.1 methodology with USEtox® 2.1 characterization factors. Three complementary functional units were employed: formulation-based, surface-based, and intervention-based. The results reveal a fundamental trade-off: EO-based systems exhibit 81% higher climate change impacts but 82–89% lower human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity impacts compared to QAC-based systems. Surface-normalized comparisons reduce the climate gap to 32%, while toxicity advantages remain robust across all sensitivity scenarios. Monte Carlo analysis confirms the robustness of toxicity findings (p &gt; 99%), whereas climate comparisons remain scenario-dependent. These findings support context-dependent adoption of EO-based biocides in conservation practice and demonstrate that EO-related climate impacts are technically mitigable, while QAC toxicity is intrinsic to their molecular structure.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1038/s41746-026-02430-x
Health economic simulation modeling of an AI-enabled clinical decision support system for coronary revascularization.
  • Feb 16, 2026
  • NPJ digital medicine
  • Tom Mullie + 8 more

While artificial intelligence (AI) models have been developed to support coronary revascularization decision-making, health economic evaluation of such models has been rare. We conducted a retrospective health economic simulation modeling study using real-world data from 25,942 adult patients with obstructive coronary artery disease in Alberta, Canada to evaluate the economic value of an AI-enabled coronary revascularization decision support system. Clinicians deciding among medical therapy only, percutaneous coronary intervention, and coronary artery bypass grafting were simulated to be provided with AI predictions of 3- and 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. At a willingness-to-pay of $50,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY), as many as 72.4% of all actual treatment decisions shifted to a different health economically optimized treatment, resulting in an average cost saving of $22,960 and a QALY gain equivalent to up to $22,439 per patient. Even in a conservative scenario where clinicians' AI adoption was assumed to be limited, 53.2% of the actual decisions shifted, resulting in an average QALY gain equivalent to up to $32,214 per patient. AI can potentially optimize the health system level economic value of treatment decisions in the form of reduced costs stemming from fewer future complications and improved patient outcomes.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1021/acs.oprd.5c00362
Modeling and Safe Operation of Fatty Alcohol Ethoxylation in a Continuous Flow Calorimeter
  • Feb 13, 2026
  • Organic Process Research &amp; Development
  • This Zahnd + 8 more

A safe, continuous process for the base-catalyzed ethoxylation of fatty alcohols at the miniplant scale is developed in this work. A flow process model based on preexisting semibatch and literature data is used to design a Fluitec flow calorimeter miniplant. Validation experiments at 1.5 mol equiv (mequiv) of ethylene oxide (EO) agreed well with semibatch kinetics, while 3 mequiv experiments showed considerable discrepancies. Critically, observed temperature peaks increased at higher flow rates, while the model predicts the opposite behavior. Caloric measurements using 1.5 mequiv of EO resulted in an average reaction enthalpy of 88 ± 4 kJ/mol ethylene oxide, which is in good agreement with the literature. A conservative total-failure scenario model predicted maximum temperature rises of 60 K (1.5 mequiv) and 104 K (3 mequiv), whereas experimental values were significantly lower (22 and 38 K). This article shows how simulations and theoretical calculations should guide practical experimental work and vice versa. Moreover, it demonstrates the feasibility of transferring semibatch data to continuous flow systems and emphasizes the importance of model validation under flow conditions.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1021/acs.est.5c18046
Combining Biomonitoring Data and a Pharmacokinetic Model to Estimate the Extended Half-Life of Neonicotinoid Insecticides in Humans.
  • Feb 9, 2026
  • Environmental science & technology
  • Tao Zhang + 6 more

Neonicotinoid insecticides (NEOs) are globally prevalent environmental contaminants. However, their biological half-lives in humans remain poorly characterized. This study employed a controlled mouse pharmacokinetic experiment with human biomonitoring data to elucidate key parameters for selected NEOs. Human biomonitoring provided renal clearance (CLrenal), while controlled mice experiment provided the volume of distribution (Vd); these were combined to estimate the biological half-life. Analysis of 172 paired human urine and blood samples revealed that CLrenal varied substantially among parent NEOs (median: 9.04 to 158 mL/day/kg) and exhibited a distinct structure-dependency. The CLrenal of fused, bicyclic NEOs (i.e., imidacloprid (IMI), thiacloprid (THD), and thiamethoxam (THM)) was governed by water solubility, while that of their nonfused, monocyclic systems (i.e., acetamiprid (ACE), clothianidin (CLO), and dinotefuran (DIN)) was determined by lipophilicity. A one-compartment log-linear regression analysis of intravenous mice data provided robust estimates of Vd, which ranged from 306 to 700 mL/kg body weight for ACE, IMI, and DIN. By combining Vd with human CLrenal, the extrapolated median biological half-life for ACE, IMI, and DIN were 15.5, 24.8, and 53.7 days, respectively, indicating significant potential for bioaccumulation in humans. Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these prolonged estimates, yielding 95% confidence intervals of 5.53 (ACE) to 157 (DIN) days, with even the most conservative scenario giving a range of 5.17 (ACE) to 17.9 (DIN) days. The prolonged half-life of NEOs indicates a significant potential for bioaccumulation in humans upon continuous exposure, which warrants further investigation regarding its implications for human health risk assessment.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1002/njz2.70009
Mitigating Competition Between Apis mellifera Workers and Reintroduced Birds by Natural Repellent Use
  • Feb 8, 2026
  • New Zealand Journal of Zoology
  • Isabela S Prado + 5 more

Apis mellifera competes with reintroduced birds for nests and feeders, reducing bird useof these resources and affecting their breeding success. Conversely, control measures such as insecticide use may negatively impact native bee populations. Identifying natural repellents is key to conserving both taxa. This study focused on evaluating the effectiveness of citronella, lemongrass, peppermint, clove basil oils, and 2‐heptanone as bee repellents and assessed the impact of the most effective substance as a repellent on bird and bee presence in a bird reintroduction area. Petri dishes containing a food attractant were placed in an apiary, with the test substances sprayed around the outer edge of each dish. Repellency was evaluated by measuring the following: time until the first bee arrived at the dish, time to deplete the attractant, and number of bees during exposure. Then, we recorded the number of birds and bees feeding at feeders in the reintroduction area before and after repellent application. Clove basil was the most effective bee repellent. At the feeders, we found a negative association between bee and bird presence, and repelling bees increased bird visitation. These results highlight the potential of natural repellents as a conservation tool to mitigate interspecific competition in similar conservation scenarios.

  • Research Article
  • 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202602.021
Multi-scenario simulation of synergistic dynamics in ecosystem services within Shennongjia National Park
  • Feb 1, 2026
  • Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology
  • Bin-Bin Zheng + 5 more

Understanding the trade-offs, synergies, and dynamics among ecosystem services (ESs) under both current and future conditions is crucial foundation for promoting holistic ecosystem conservation and scientific management of national park. Using the PLUS and InVEST models, we assessed land use and ES changes of Shennongjia National Park in 2030 and 2050 under three scenarios: Natural development, ecological conservation, and tourism development. We used Spearman correlation analysis and K-means clustering to identify trade-offs and synergies among ESs, delineate the functional structure of ES bundles, and examine their dynamics. The results showed that different ESs exhibited distinct evolutionary trends from 2020 to 2050. Recreational services remained relatively stable overall. Water yield, soil conservation, and habitat quality showed declining trends, with the most significant reductions under the tourism development scenario by 359769.00 mm, 28388.70 t, and 0.11, respectively. Carbon storage increased significantly only under the ecological conservation scenario, with a gain of 102096.71 t. Relationships among ESs under different scenarios were predominantly synergistic and showed notable changes. Under the natural development and tourism development scenarios, trade-offs weakened while synergies strengthened. The relationship between carbon storage and water yield shifted from trade-off to synergy. Under the ecological conservation scenario, trade-offs and synergies remained largely unchanged. Based on K-means clustering of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies, four distinct types of ES bundles were identified: strict protection, science education and recreation, community livelihood, and ecological restoration. The spatial patterns of ES bundles showed minimal variation and remained relatively stable across different scenarios. Based on the distribution patterns and internal characteristics of different ES bundles, we proposed corresponding ecological management strategies to provide a scientific basis for the holistic conservation of national park ecosystems.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101076
Land use configuration optimization based on ecosystem service enhancement in Xi'an City
  • Feb 1, 2026
  • Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
  • Shancai Xiao + 2 more

Land use configuration optimization based on ecosystem service enhancement in Xi'an City

  • Research Article
  • 10.36253/a_h-18167
Assessing the Climatic Vulnerability of the Micrurus sangilensis (Niceforo Maria, 1942) under Future Scenarios
  • Jan 20, 2026
  • Acta Herpetologica
  • Julián Arango-Lozano + 2 more

The Vulnerable Micrurus sangilensis common known as the Santander coral snake distributes in dry and montane forests, ecosystems under severe anthropogenic pressure in northeastern Colombia. Its already fragmented habitat may exacerbate risks in vegetation structure due to climate change. We assessed whether the current distribution of the snake may be altered under different scenarios with climate change in the 2040-2060 years; aiming to recognize conservation priority areas. With ecological niche modeling we calculated current and obtained values of stability in the distribution range of the species for the most conservative emission scenarios of socio-economic pathways (SSP) 126, and 245; and the expected greater emissions 585 within five different global circulation models. We also escalated an index of vulnerability to land use change to 2050 in the remaining areas for the species, detecting prioritizing conservation zones. Our findings reveal a nearly 25% consistency of loss in the three SSP scenarios, while gaining stability varies between different GCMs. Over 37% of remaining suitable areas were categorized as highly vulnerable to land-use change, especially at elevations between 900 and 2000 m. We emphasize the need to integrate M. sangilensis habitats into Colombia’s protected area network, restore degraded ecosystems, and establish ecological corridors to mitigate fragmentation. While the most vulnerable to changing areas appear to be the ones with critical requirements for conservation; we call attention to aim conservation efforts in the low and middle vulnerable to change regions, those with lower likelihood to be modified in the near future.

  • Research Article
  • 10.26444/aaem/214156
Health and environmental risk assessment of berry fruits contaminated with pesticide residues, including soil ecosystem exposure.
  • Jan 15, 2026
  • Annals of agricultural and environmental medicine : AAEM
  • Jarosław P Chmielewski + 5 more

Pesticides, also known as plant protection products, are used to control pests, plant diseases, and weeds during crop cultivation and post-harvest handling. The aim of the study is evaluation of the health and environmental risks associated with pesticide residues in berry fruits (strawberries, raspberries, and blueberries) available in Poland in 2022. The study is based on the results of officially controlled, laboratory analyses of pesticide residues in berry fruits available on the Polish market in 2022, data on fruit consumption, and literature data concerning acceptable daily intake values (ADI). Estimated daily intake (EDI) and hazard quotients (HQ) were calculated to assess the chronic dietary risk. In addition, a screening-level environmental risk assessment was carried out for the same active substances, focusing on the soil compartment as the main sink of pesticide residues. The health risk assessment showed that all calculated EDI, HQ, and HI values for pesticide residues in strawberries, raspberries, and blueberries consumed in Poland in 2022 were several orders of magnitude below the threshold of concern (HQ < 1). The environmental risk assessment indicated that most fungicides (boscalid, cyprodinil, fludioxonil, fluopyram) posed low risk to soil organisms (RQ < 1), even under conservative scenarios. However, acetamiprid exceeded the risk threshold at higher assumed soil concentrations (MEC = 0.10mg/kg), suggesting potential ecological concern for sensitive soil invertebrates, such as collembolans. The study showed that pesticide residues in strawberries, raspberries, and blueberries available in Poland in 2022 did not pose a chronic health risk to consumers. Environmental risk assessment indicated low risk for most fungicides; however, acetamiprid exceeded the safety threshold under higher soil contamination scenarios, suggesting potential concern for soil invertebrates.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3390/su18020894
Constructing Ecological Security Patterns Using Remote Sensing Ecological Index Multi-Scenario Simulation and Circuit Theory: A Case Study of Xishuangbanna, a Border City
  • Jan 15, 2026
  • Sustainability
  • Jiaqi Yang + 2 more

Driven by the globalization tide, urbanization and cross-border economic cooperation have intensified challenges to ecological conservation, with border regions increasingly confronting irreversible habitat degradation risks. As a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot, Xishuangbanna acts as a strategic hub for cross-border ecological security between China and Southeast Asia, having long been confronted with dual pressures from economic development and ecological conservation. By analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) during 2003–2023, this study simulates its multi-scenario dynamics, develops the “RSEI-ESP-PLUS” framework, presents a novel assessment mechanism for ecological security patterns (ESP), and provides a scientific basis for regional sustainable development. Results indicate that integrating RSEI improves the accuracy of ecological source identification. Over the past two decades, regional Ecological Environmental Quality has exhibited an overall improvement trend, yet persistent ecological pressures remain—including vegetation degradation and climate warming. Concurrently, high-quality ecological areas have contracted while moderate-quality ones have expanded. In the 2033 simulation, the ecological conservation scenario delivered the most favorable ecological network assessment outcomes, identifying 16 stable and 15 potential ecological sources. Accordingly, this study establishes an ecological security pattern centered on the core structure of the “One Axis, Two Corridors, and Three Zones”, which provides a spatial planning scheme for regional sustainable development.

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