ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of music programmers – the individuals responsible for curating lineups for festivals and venues – in the contemporary live music market. Drawing on empirical data from in-depth interviews and participant observation, it analyzes how programmers select emerging artists under conditions of high uncertainty. While traditional sociological accounts emphasize programmers’ individual taste and cultural capital, this study draws on Actor-Network Theory (ANT) to argue that music curation is a distributed process embedded in socio-technical arrangements. The analysis conceptualizes showcase festivals as recurring assemblages of market devices that function as calculative infrastructures, enabling the comparison and collective evaluation of artists. By stabilizing shared contexts of assessment and facilitating peer observation and trust-based coordination, these events help programmers manage uncertainty and align expectations. In this view, the power of the intermediary lies not primarily in individual taste or cultural authority, but in their embeddedness within broader systems of valuation and coordination. The paper concludes that the final lineup is not a simple expression of habitus, but a relational effect of organizational constraints and networked mediation.

The problem of quantifying information security risks for a specific class of systems ‒ geographically distributed information systems of law enforcement agencies is considered. The key methodological difficulty in applying traditional approaches in this subject area is associated with a systemic lack of reliable incident statistics, caused by both the confidential nature of operations and the uniqueness of many threats. As a solution, a mathematical model based on the apparatus of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic inference, adapted to operate under conditions of high uncertainty, is proposed. The model operates with qualitative expert judgments, formalized through the linguistic variables “Asset value”, “Threat probability”, and “Vulnerability degree”. The inference mechanism is implemented based on a complete knowledge base of twenty-seven production rules and the Mamdani algorithm, the output of which is a quantitative assessment of the integral “Risk level”. Model verification was conducted through a computational experiment simulating three characteristic system operation scenarios: mobile access through potentially hostile networks, secure data exchange via dedicated channels, and an internal insider threat. The experiment results demonstrate the model's adequate and logically consistent response, correctly identifying critical and acceptable states. Visualization in the form of a response surface confirms the nonlinear nature of the dependence of the resulting risk on the input parameters. The practical significance of the research, lies in the possibility of integrating the developed model into decision support systems for well-founded planning of protective measures and optimal resource allocation under conditions of incomplete initial data.

As the central actors in corporate strategy formulation and resource allocation, managers exert a profound influence on a company’s green development. Against the backdrop of China’s policy-driven push for corporate green transformation, this study examines the impact of managerial discretion on corporate green innovation and its underlying mechanisms. Drawing on a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2023, the analysis integrates agency theory and stewardship theory, focusing on the formal authority granted to Chief Executive Officer by their boards of directors. Empirical results indicate that managerial discretion exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with corporate green innovation: moderate power stimulates stewardship behavior among managers, thereby promoting green innovation, whereas excessive power induces agency problems, which in turn exerts a suppressing effect. Mechanism analysis reveals that R&D investment serves as a key transmission channel and itself exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with green innovation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this effect is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises and under conditions of high environmental uncertainty. Therefore, firms should reasonably delegate authority to management and actively establish monitoring mechanisms for green R&D investment thresholds to precisely enhance green innovation capabilities.

This study examines the effect of strategic leadership on business strategy success, with environmental turbulence as a moderating variable. In an increasingly dynamic and competitive business environment, organizations must adapt quickly to changes in technology, market conditions, and competition. Strategic leadership plays a critical role in ensuring that organizational strategies are effectively formulated and implemented to achieve sustainable competitive advantage. This research adopts a quantitative approach with an explanatory design. Data were collected through structured questionnaires distributed to managers, supervisors, and employees involved in strategic decision-making. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling, with respondents selected based on specific criteria, including a minimum of one year of work experience and involvement in strategy implementation. Data analysis was conducted using Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) to test both direct and interaction effects. The results indicate that strategic leadership has a significant positive effect on business strategy success. Additionally, environmental turbulence significantly moderates this relationship, strengthening the influence of strategic leadership under conditions of high uncertainty and rapid change. This finding suggests that the role of strategic leadership becomes more critical as environmental complexity increases. In conclusion, organizations are encouraged to develop adaptive and responsive leadership capabilities to effectively navigate turbulent environments and enhance strategic outcomes. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of environmental turbulence in shaping the effectiveness of strategic leadership.

Purpose While research on institutional theory has comprehensively investigated the adoption and diffusion of managerial practices, far less attention has been paid to their decline and abandonment, particularly in the context of transplanted practices across institutional boundaries. The author know little about how institutional distance and uncertainty interact with insider resistance to destabilize and ultimately dismantle practices imported from other institutional contexts. This study aims to address this gap by analysing the case of Toyota Kirloskar Motors in India (1999–2014) to validate and extend the core tenets of deinstitutionalization. Specifically, this study investigates the mechanisms, phases and outcomes of the decline of the Toyota Production System (TPS) while offering a conceptual framework and propositions that clarify when and how transplanted practices are abandoned or transformed into hybrid local institutions. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts a rigorously structured conceptual research design grounded in theory-building principles. Drawing on institutional theory, deinstitutionalization and institutional transplantation literature, this study develops an integrated process model supported by an in-depth secondary case analysis of TPS implementation in India. Findings The analysis identifies a multi-phased deinstitutionalization process comprising legitimacy erosion, resistance escalation, pressure convergence and negotiated adaptation. It demonstrates how normative, political and coercive pressures – mobilized primarily by local actors – undermined TPS’s taken-for-granted status, resulting not in outright disappearance but in hybrid transformation into the Toyota India Production System. The findings extend deinstitutionalization theory by distinguishing insider and outsider pressures and specifying boundary conditions of high institutional distance and uncertainty. Practical implications Increased international business activity across the world owing to globalization has resulted in enterprises exporting, borrowing and/or experimenting with management concepts and models developed in different institutional contexts. This paper is a call to practitioners to consider the potential pitfalls inherent within such initiatives. Originality/value This is the first work – to the best of the authors’ knowledge – that has used the lens of deinstitutionalization to explore the transplantation journey of an overseas affiliate of the Japanese global automotive giant Toyota.

Abstract Synthetic aperture radar remote sensing has long been recognized as a valuable tool for estimating aboveground biomass density in forest ecosystems. In this study, we specifically evaluated the sensitivity of the SAOCOM mission to forest biomass under conditions of high spatial uncertainty in reference data (± 1.6 km). A complex single-look SAOCOM acquisition was processed to obtain a comprehensive set of polarimetric backscatter and decomposition metrics, which were used as predictors in Random Forest regression models calibrated with biomass estimates from the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis program. The optimized model achieved a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.50, with a mean square error of 59 Mg ha⁻¹ and a mean absolute error of 47 Mg ha⁻¹ on independent test data. Beyond predictive performance, the results demonstrate that SAOCOM observations retain significant sensitivity to forest structural variability, even when the spatial correspondence between satellite measurements and ground-based biomass references is substantially degraded. These findings highlight SAOCOM’s potential for biomass-oriented applications, even under challenging conditions.

Recent advances in sensing and artificial intelligence technologies have laid the foundation for proactive pedestrian safety at non-signalized intersections. These technologies enable the prediction of future pedestrian-vehicle conflicts, allowing for timely intervention. Existing studies, however, overlook the uncertainty inherent in future prediction, which mainly stems from behavioral variability and observational inaccuracies. Probabilistic trajectory prediction can capture these uncertainties, yet it has rarely been applied to future conflict evaluation. To improve future conflict evaluation by accounting for uncertainty, this study introduces a novel method that integrates probabilistic trajectory prediction with a newly designed surrogate safety measure, Stochastic Predicted Time to Collision (SPTTC). SPTTC enables accurate conflict prediction, reliable scenario classification and evaluation of conflict severity progression, as demonstrated in quantitative results and case studies. Across different types of non-signalized intersections, SPTTC was separately integrated with four probabilistic trajectory prediction models, achieving F1 scores of 0.77–0.84 and consistently outperforming baseline methods. The proposed method also exhibits strong robustness under high-uncertainty conditions, such as unpredictable pedestrian behavior (e.g., children), low visibility (e.g., nighttime), and missing data. This proposed method can be integrated into proactive pedestrian protection systems, enhancing safety by providing timely alerts to pedestrians or activating vehicle brakes at critical moments.

The article examines marketing logistics as an integrated management system within transport enterprises, emphasizing its role in creating sustainable competitive advantages through the effective management of flows and delivery of services that preserve consumer value. In modern economic conditions, traditional isolated application of marketing and logistics tools often fails to ensure the achievement of strategic objectives, particularly under circumstances of high uncertainty, resource limitations, and disruptions in supply chains, such as those experienced during martial law. Marketing logistics emerges as an integrative mechanism that combines market-oriented approaches with process- and flow-oriented logistics, aligning demand generation with the enterprise’s operational capabilities. A critical review of domestic and international literature reveals a lack of unified conceptual understanding of marketing logistics. Foreign studies tend to interpret it from a logistics perspective, emphasizing operational efficiency and physical distribution, while domestic research increasingly views it as a comprehensive, integrative system that coordinates marketing and logistics decisions to achieve long-term competitive advantages. The article classifies approaches to marketing logistics into three groups: functional-distributional, integration-oriented, and value-oriented (synthetic), reflecting its evolution from a narrowly operational function to a strategic management concept. The study offers a conceptual generalization of marketing logistics as an integrated management system under conditions of high uncertainty. The study identifies key objectives and tactical tasks of marketing logistics, including ensuring full and timely satisfaction of consumer demand, optimizing logistics costs, maintaining service quality, enhancing resilience, and supporting sustainable development and digital transformation. The article further delineates the core functions of marketing logistics — analytical, planning, organizational, coordination, control, and value-oriented — demonstrating their integrative nature in harmonizing marketing and logistics processes. Comparative analysis highlights that marketing logistics not only delivers physical products but also generates additional value for the consumer by balancing service levels with operational efficiency. The findings underscore the relevance of marketing logistics as a holistic management tool for transport enterprises operating in dynamic and uncertain environments. Prospects for further research include the development of digital, data-driven, and adaptive approaches to enhance efficiency, resilience, and sustainability in marketing logistics processes.

The article summarizes the theoretical approaches and practical developments regarding the reintegration of military veterans into the business environment as a strategic resource for enhancing business resilience of enterprises and developing entrepreneurial ecosystems in Ukraine’s postwar economy. It is substantiated that under conditions of wartime and postwar instability, multidimensional uncertainty, labor shortages, and structural transformation of the economy, the human capital of veterans acquires particular value as a factor of adaptability, operational resilience, and organizational transformation of enterprises. The present work systematizes modern approaches to interpreting business resilience and entrepreneurial ecosystems and demonstrates the feasibility of their integration for analyzing the economic reintegration of veterans. The specifics of veteran human capital, which develops under conditions of high risk, uncertainty, and team interaction, have been identified, along with the main institutional and organizational barriers to its efficient integration into the civilian economy. It is shown that the dominance of a social-compensatory approach to veteran policy limits the use of this potential in business development strategies and entrepreneurial ecosystems. An original conceptual model, VetRes-ECO (Veterans’ Reintegration for Enterprise Resilience & Entrepreneurial Ecosystems), is proposed, interpreting the veteran as a «resilient module» within the entrepreneurial ecosystem and revealing the mechanisms through which veteran reintegration influences enterprise resilience at the levels of organizational processes, network interactions, and government support policy. The role of targeted retraining, inclusive HR practices, veteran and social entrepreneurship, as well as private investment in veteran value chains, has been substantiated as complementary factors in shaping resilient business models. The research findings indicate that integrating veteran policies into human resource management strategies, business continuity plans, and programs for developing entrepreneurial ecosystems helps reduce enterprise recovery time, enhance team cohesion, stabilize employment, and create long-term foundations for sustainable economic development. The practical significance of the article lies in the potential use of these findings by government authorities, businesses, and entrepreneurship support institutions in the formulation of postwar reconstruction policies and the reintegration of veterans into Ukraine’s economy.

The article examines theoretical and applied aspects of forming a strategy for managing innovation activities of an enterprise in conditions of high risks and uncertainty of the external environment. It is substantiated that in modern economic conditions, innovation activity is a key factor in ensuring the competitiveness of enterprises, their adaptability to crisis phenomena, technological changes and global challenges. It is determined that the strategy for managing innovation activities is a complex system of longterm goals, principles, methods and management decisions aimed at the effective creation, implementation and commercialization of innovations taking into account risks. The main elements of such a strategy are revealed, in particular: analysis of the external and internal environment, risk assessment, formation of an innovation portfolio, selection of financing sources, development of innovation potential and knowledge management system. Modern approaches to risk management in the innovative activities of enterprises are analyzed, including the identification, assessment and minimization of risks at different stages of the innovation process. Particular attention is paid to the implementation of flexible management methods, digital technologies, scenario planning and diversification of innovation projects as tools for increasing the sustainability of enterprises. The influence of external factors, in particular economic instability, military risks, globalization processes and technological transformations, on the formation of innovation strategies is summarized. Key problems are identified, including: limited financial resources, high level of uncertainty of innovation results, insufficient integration of risk management into the strategic management system. Directions for improving the strategy for managing the innovative activities of an enterprise are substantiated, which include the development of a risk management system, increasing the investment attractiveness of innovations, the implementation of modern management approaches, the activation of partnership interactions and the formation of adaptive organizational structures. It is concluded that an effective strategy for managing innovation activities in conditions of high risks is a necessary prerequisite for ensuring sustainable development of the enterprise, increasing its competitive position and long-term economic efficiency.

A dynamically changing market economy requires companies to change traditional budgeting methods. Classic annual budgeting is becoming irrelevant in conditions of high uncertainty. The pandemic and economic upheaval have only exposed the shortcomings of rigid budgets – many CFOs note that the time has come to seek alternatives that are more flexible. As a result, modern budgeting approaches have developed, allowing organizations to quickly adapt plans, manage resources more effectively, and maintain the alignment of finances with strategic goals.The purpose of this article is to examine these approaches, identify their advantages and limitations, examine their impact on strategy and implementation experience in companies (including Kazakhstan), and explore the role of digitalization in transforming the budgeting process.This article has high scientific and practical significance due to the fact, that some budgeting methods are insufficiently studied, and not reflected in modern research. Furthermore, the application of modern methods allows enterprises, particularly those in Kazakhstan, to choose ways to create effective cost accounting and control systems, where resource management errors can lead to a decrease in business competitiveness. Many Kazakhstani enterprises face challenges such as inefficient resource use and a lack of a systematic approach to planning. Under these circumstances, the implementation of effective budgeting methods becomes a key tool for informed management decision-making. This article addresses these challenges, highlighting its practical and theoretical significance. This research may be useful for companies seeking to optimize costs and improve financial discipline.

Topicality. The management of strategic transformations in contemporary organisations is increasingly based on an understanding of the psychological, emotional and social factors that determine the actual behaviour of employees. Traditional rationalistic approaches, which assume the logic, predictability and stability of managerial decisions, prove to be insufficient in conditions of turbulence, digital transformation and intensive organisational change. Therefore, the importance of behaviourally oriented management is growing, as it integrates the achievements of behavioural economics, organisational psychology, motivation theories and leadership studies. The formation of new models of behavioural interaction, risk diagnosis and the development of leadership practices become critical factors in ensuring the sustainability and effectiveness of strategic transformations, which determines the relevance of this research. Aim and tasks. The purpose of the study is to provide a theoretical substantiation and to develop the conceptual foundations of behaviourally oriented management in the context of strategic transformations. To achieve this purpose, the following objectives are pursued: to systematise the key behavioural determinants of managerial decision-making during transformation processes; to analyse behavioural leadership models and determine their influence on employee motivation and readiness for change; to identify and classify the main behavioural risks of strategic transformations and the relevant tools for their assessment; to propose an integrated conceptual model that reflects the interrelationships between behavioural determinants, leadership practices, behavioural risks, employee readiness and a system of managerial actions aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of strategic change. Materials and Methods. The research is based on the use of institutional, logical and comparative analysis methods, content analysis of scientific and regulatory sources, as well as conceptual and graphical modelling methods. Research results. The article substantiates the conceptual foundations of behaviourally oriented management of strategic transformations in organisations. It is demonstrated that under conditions of high uncertainty and turbulence, classical rationalistic decision-making models fail to explain the actual reactions of managers and employees to change, as a decisive role is played by bounded rationality, cognitive biases, emotional states, levels of trust, corporate culture norms and mechanisms of social influence. Based on the systematisation of the achievements of behavioural economics, organisational psychology and leadership theories, the main behavioural determinants of managerial decisions and their impact on the pace and effectiveness of strategic change are identified. The content of behavioural leadership models (empathetic, adaptive, transformational, participative, communicative and trust-based leadership) and their role in shaping employee motivation and readiness for transformation are revealed. Key behavioural risks — resistance to change, cognitive errors, emotional destabilisation, loss of trust, group disorientation, loss of meaning in work and cultural conflict — are identified, and an approach to their assessment using quantitative and evaluative indicators is proposed. On this basis, a conceptual model of behaviourally oriented management of strategic transformations is developed, in which behavioural determinants, leadership practices, a risk management system, employee behavioural readiness and a set of managerial interventions are aligned. It is proven that the effectiveness of strategic change is determined by an organisation’s ability to purposefully shape the choice architecture, create an emotionally safe environment and establish fair rules of interaction, thereby transforming behavioural risks into a resource for supporting transformations. Conclusion. The conducted research confirms that the behavioural component is a system-forming element of strategic transformations and determines employees’ actual responses to change to a much greater extent than formal procedures or rational decision-making models. Bounded rationality, cognitive biases, emotional regulation, levels of trust, corporate culture and mechanisms of social influence form the behavioural governance framework, which directly affects the pace, coherence and effectiveness of transformations. It is established that under conditions of high turbulence, behavioural factors become key moderators of organisational resilience, determining employees’ readiness to support strategic innovations and overcome associated risks. The analysis of behavioural leadership models demonstrates their ability either to mitigate or, conversely, to intensify behavioural risks. Empathetic, transformational, participative and communicative leadership reduce resistance, enhance psychological safety and contribute to employees’ emotional stability. At the same time, insufficient trust, lack of decision-making transparency and cultural conflicts generate persistent risks of disorientation, communication fragmentation and loss of work meaning. The proposed conceptual model integrates behavioural determinants, leadership practices, a diagnostic system and the assessment of behavioural risks, forming a holistic framework for managing strategic change. Further research will focus on the development of quantitative indicators of employee behavioural readiness, which will enable comparative measurement and dynamic risk forecasting during transformation processes.

Healthcare-associated infections remain one of the most critical challenges for patient safety and healthcare sustainability, which urgently requires decision-making frameworks that can model uncertainty, hesitation, and conflicting expert opinions. Most of the existing studies in hospital infection-control evaluation models have relied on classical or basic fuzzy approaches, which cannot represent the circular preference behavior of expert judgments and high degrees of ambiguity. In this respect, this study proposes a decision-support framework based on Circular q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy sets integrated with a modified CRADIS method. The Circular q-ROF structure enables simultaneous modeling of uncertainty, hesitation, and periodic judgment patterns frequently faced in many expert-driven healthcare assessments. Furthermore, this study reformulates the modified CRADIS method under the Circular q-ROF environment with the necessary adaptation of normalization, aggregation, and ranking procedures. Based on the proposed model, hospital infection-control measures are evaluated with respect to several criteria covering effectiveness, safety, cost, and sustainability. A numerical case study is provided to demonstrate its applicability, and comparisons are conducted with some of the well-known existing fuzzy aggregation-based decision models to demonstrate the ranking behavior. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the robustness of the results when considering parameter variation and changes in expert weights. Accordingly, the results have shown that the proposed approach provided stable and interpretable rankings, ensuring good robustness of the results under high uncertainty conditions. This paper contributes a structured and reliable decision-support tool for hospital infection-control policy formulation.

This paper develops a region-specific technological transformation strategy for the automotive and mobility sector in Southeast Lower Saxony (SON) under conditions of high uncertainty driven by electrification, digitalization, and automation. The study integrates three analytical components: (i) a SWOT-based baseline assessment of SON’s current strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; (ii) a scenario-technique framework describing alternative German mobility futures toward 2035; and (iii) a two-round Delphi survey with experts from the Institutes of Automotive Engineering and Engineering Design to evaluate actionable transformation measures. SWOT factors are mapped to scenario key-factor projections and assessed using a trinary impact scale (−1/0/+1), followed by aggregation and normalization to derive scenario-specific change factors. Delphi-rated measures are then prioritized using scenario-overarching performance and SWOT relevance, yielding a tiered strategy concept. The resulting strategy is organized around five interdependent pillars: strengthening industry–research cooperation, advancing research in modern mobility, developing key mobility-support technologies (battery technology, AI, circular economy), expanding digital infrastructure, and upgrading R&D infrastructure and talent capacity, supported by enabling regulatory and workforce measures. The paper provides focus points from regional diagnosis to prioritized action, supporting robust strategic decision-making and adaptive capability building in SON.

The article examines the transformation of sales strategies for food products in wholesale trade enterprises of Ukraine under martial law caused by the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in 2022. The study analyzes the key challenges faced by the sector, including disruptions of traditional supply chains, reduction of production volumes, loss of part of warehouse infrastructure, and changes in consumer demand structure. Adaptation mechanisms are identified that enabled wholesale enterprises to maintain the functioning of food supply systems and ensure economic resilience even under conditions of high uncertainty. Particular attention is paid to the diversification of logistics routes, digitalization of business processes to optimize resource management, integration of electronic trading platforms, and modification of assortment policies in line with current population needs. It is demonstrated that the transition from intensive sales strategies to selective and omnichannel models contributed to greater flexibility and reduced risks in enterprise operations. The practical significance of the study lies in providing recommendations for building effective sales strategies in crisis conditions, which can be applied to ensure food security, support economic stability, and foster the development of Ukraine’s domestic market.

This study introduces a novel intraday volume-based uncertainty (IVU) proxy—the ratio of opening-half-hour volume to total volume of the preceding seven intervals—to predict final half-hour return direction in the Chinese stock market. Using threshold regression, we identify a statistically significant IVU critical value of 0.476225 (p < 0.001), which splits the sample into distinct uncertainty regimes. Logistic regression incorporating this threshold reveals that the joint condition of high opening volume and low IVU (high uncertainty) significantly amplifies the predictive power of initial returns, achieving 63.04% accuracy in the high-uncertainty, high-volume regime. XGBoost further captures complex non-linear interactions, with IVU-related features ranking among the most important predictors and achieving 71.43% out-of-sample accuracy under high-volume, high-uncertainty conditions. A machine learning trading strategy leveraging these predictions yields a total return of 117.99% with a Sharpe ratio of 3.02 over seven years, significantly outperforming benchmarks. Our findings highlight information uncertainty as a critical moderator of intraday momentum and a valuable source of actionable alpha.

In recent years, agro-industrial enterprises have experienced a significant destabilizing impact caused by military aggression and the strengthening of socio-economic instability against this background. Significant amounts of information that must be promptly processed for effective management decisions by agro-industrial producers in the financial sector necessitate the implementation of a financial controlling system that will increase management effectiveness in conditions of high variability, uncertainty and risk. The purpose of this article is to study the conceptual provisions for the formation of a financial controlling system for agro-industrial enterprises. It has been established that financial controlling, as a separate component in the general controlling system of an agro-industrial enterprise, plays the role of a connecting link between the general controlling system of the enterprise and its financial management, focusing on harmonizing the financial development strategy of the enterprise with its general strategy and mission. At the same time, a wide range of tasks and functions are assigned to the financial controlling system, the main of which are the function of provision, analysis, planning, control and coordination. Considering that agro-industrial enterprises are commercial in nature, the purpose of their financial controlling system is proposed to be defined as ensuring the maximization of profit and the cost of capital in a strategic perspective through management and control actions in priority areas of the enterprise's financial activity. Accordingly, the financial controlling system of an agro-industrial enterprise can be identified as a subsystem of the general controlling system of an agro-industrial enterprise, which, based on the synergistic interaction of its elements (management accounting, analysis, budgeting, internal control, information collection, etc.), contributes to increasing the efficiency of managerial financial decisions to ensure strategic development in a volatile external environment. To ensure the effectiveness of the financial controlling system of an agro-industrial enterprise, it is proposed to adhere to the key principles of its effective functioning, namely the principle of target orientation, complexity, autonomy, efficiency and systematicity, automation.

The aim of this article is to develop a comprehensive theoretical and methodological framework for resilient management of enterprise financial development and to create a mechanism for its practical implementation, aimed at ensuring adaptability and sustainable growth of business entities under external shocks. The article explores the issue of establishing a system of resilient management of enterprise financial development under conditions of high uncertainty and continuous crises. Based on a systematic analysis of literature from 2020–2025, the evolution of the conception is traced from traditional crisis financial management to the paradigm of resilience and anti-fragility, which entails not only survival but also accelerated growth during shocks. The conceptual and categorical framework of resilient financial management is clarified. The theoretical and methodological foundations of resilient financial management have been developed, based on the integration of dynamic capabilities theory, N. Taleb’s conception of anti-fragility, and contemporary approaches to strategic financial planning. The basic principles of resilient financial management have been defined. Some methodological instruments have been proposed, including: a three-tier model for assessing financial resilience; stress testing of the capital structure under five crisis scenarios; an algorithm for calculating the dynamic target criterion; and a priority matrix for investment projects in crisis and post-crisis periods. A mechanism for implementing resilient financial management has been suggested. The results have theoretical significance for the advancement of financial management and practical application for developing financial strategies of enterprises in highly turbulent countries. Prospects for further research in this area include developing a comprehensive methodological framework for assessing and forecasting the resilience of enterprises’ financial development, based on the integration of big data and artificial intelligence technologies for early detection of financial crises, and sustainable development metrics as tools for evaluating long-term financial and corporate stability. In this context, resilient financial management becomes a systemic instrument for the strategic development of enterprises.

Abstract. The article considers current issues regarding the assessment of the effectiveness of foresight methods for marketing IT products. It is noted that foresight, as a methodology for studying the future and its alternatives, is used in strategic planning to identify priority areas of technological development and create forecast scenarios of innovative changes. It acts not only as a forecasting tool, but also as a mechanism for designing future market configurations that have a direct impact on the marketing processes of IT products and digital platform ecosystems. In the modern digital economy, the effectiveness of marketing activities is traditionally assessed through a system of operational and financial indicators, such as ROI, CAC, LTV, market share and conversion rates. However, these indicators mainly reflect the results of the implementation of short- and medium-term marketing activities and are not able to adequately characterize the impact of foresight methods aimed at forming long-term strategic prerequisites for the development of IT products and digital platforms. Market foresight, or foresight-oriented marketing, has a fundamentally different nature. Its function is not to stimulate existing demand, but to identify, model and design future market configurations, technological trajectories and architectures of platform ecosystems. In this context, foresight does not directly affect the financial result, but the quality of strategic decisions, the structure of the product portfolio, the innovative orientation of the company and its ability to integrate into future technological waves. A system of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of foresight-oriented marketing of IT products and a conceptual scheme for an integrated assessment of the effectiveness of foresight methods in IT product marketing are proposed, which reflects the logical flow of transformation of external factors and information signals into a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the company's activities. A calculation model of the integral foresight effectiveness index (EIF) and methods for calculating its components are presented. The methodology proposed in the study allows not only to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of foresight activities, but also to identify relationships between cognitive, strategic, platform and economic effects, which contributes to the formation of scientifically based recommendations for strategic marketing of IT products. Its scientific novelty lies in the systemic integration of four blocks of efficiency and the use of normalized indicators, which provides a comprehensive, quantitatively-oriented assessment of foresight methods and increases the practical value of the methodology for managing the development of IT companies in conditions of high technological and market uncertainty.

Introduction. The functioning of Ukraine’s banking system under conditions of high uncertainty and risks caused by the war is accompanied by the accumulation of crisis potential. External factors such as geopolitical shocks, macroeconomic fluctuations, and regulatory changes cannot be controlled by banks, which highlights the need to strengthen the manageability of internal determinants of financial stability. Problem Statement. While the impact of external threats on banking stability is widely studied in the academic literature, there is no unified system of internal determinants that define capital adequacy and its ability to withstand risks. Particular attention should be paid to the quality of Tier 1 capital, which serves as the key buffer for absorbing losses, whereas Tier 2 capital has a limited stabilizing role. The purpose is to develop a methodology for assessing the impact of internal factors on bank capital adequacy under uncertainty, to construct an econometric model, and to establish a basis for forecasting future capital values in line with the risk profile and regulatory requirements. Methods. Statistical tests, econometric methods, correlation analysis, multicollinearity testing, regression trials, and stationarity checks were applied. Results. The study proposes the use of CAR_T1 as the dependent variable, as it most accurately reflects bank capital resilience. A set of factors forming the information base for modeling was identified: growth in non-performing loans, risk-weighted assets, and debt burden reduces CAR_T1, while asset profitability and the share of equity increase it. The statistical selection methodology ensures the construction of a model that reflects the real mechanisms of internal processes affecting capital stability. Conclusions. The developed system of factors and the methodology for their selection provide the foundation for building an econometric model of bank capital adequacy assessment. Using CAR_T1 as the key indicator enables the acquisition of relevant quantitative estimates, improves the accuracy of managerial decisions, and ensures the adaptability of capital management policies under crisis conditions.