Conditional Survival Of Patients Research Articles

Survival trends and conditional survival in patients with pulmonary metastases from differentiated thyroid carcinoma.

Patients with pulmonary metastases from differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) have a significantly poorer prognosis compared to DTC patients without metastases. This study aimed to establish a nomogram combined with dynamic survival analysis to predict the survival probability of patients with pulmonary metastases from differentiated thyroid carcinoma and compensate for the underestimation of survival in patients with very poor prognosis. Patient data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiological, and End Result (SEER) data resource from 2010 to 2019. Multivariate analysis was carried out by the Cox proportional hazards regression to construct a nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves along with calibration were employed to assess the effectiveness of the model.The life table was used to estimate the conditional cancer-specific survival (CSS). In the training set, the AUCs for the CSS nomogram were 0.728, 0.741, and 0.779, with a c-index of 0.682, indicating good predictive performance at 3, 5, and 10 years. In the validation set, the AUCs for the CSS nomogram were 0.706, 0.726, and 0.769, with a c-index of 0.696, while the AUCs for the 8th TNM staging system were 0.521, 0.555, and 0.601, with a c-index of 0.579. The overall 5-year conditional survival rate for patients increased slightly from 63.44 to 70.52%. The survival gap was greatest between patients aged <55 years and those aged ≥55 years. We established a nomogram combined with dynamic survival analysis, which serve as promising options for prognosis estimation, to enhance personalized evaluation of survival risks and provide the basis for the development of more clinical treatment approaches.

Conditional survival of patients with primary bone lymphoma of the spine: how survival changes after initial diagnosis.

The current survival prediction methodologies for primary bone lymphoma (PBL) of the spine are deficient. This study represents the inaugural utilization of conditional survival (CS) to assess the outcome of this disease. Moreover, our objective was to devise a CS-based nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in real-time for spinal PBL. Patients with PBL of the spine diagnosed between January 2000 and December 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The OS was determined through the Kaplan-Meier method. The CS characteristic of patients with spinal PBL was delineated, with the CS being estimated utilizing the formula: CS(α|β) = OS(α+β)/OS(β). CS(α|β) denotes the probability of additional α-year survivorship, assuming the patient has already survived β years after the time of observation. Three methods including univariate Cox regression, best subset regression (BSR) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to identify predictors for CS-based nomogram construction. Kaplan-Meier analysis was executed to determine the OS rate for these patients, revealing a survival rate of 68% and subsequently 63% at the 3-year and 5-year mark respectively. We then investigated the CS patterning exhibited by these patients and discovered the survival of PBL in the spine progressively improved with time. Meanwhile, through three different prognostic factor selection methods, we identified the best predicter subset including age, tumor histology, tumor stage, chemotherapy and marital status, for survival prediction model construction. Finally, we successfully established and validated a novel CS-based nomogram model for real-time and dynamic survival estimation. Moreover, we further designed a risk stratification system to facilitate the identification of high-risk patients. This is the first study to analyze the CS pattern of PBL of the spine. And we have also developed a CS-based nomogram that provide dynamic prognostic data in real-time, thereby aiding in the formulation of personalized treatment strategies in clinical practice.

Conditional survival analysis and real-time prognosis prediction in stage III T3–T4 colon cancer patients after surgical resection: a SEER database analysis

BackgroundConditional survival (CS) takes into consideration the duration of survival post-surgery and can provide valuable additional insights. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors associated with reduced one-year postoperative conditional survival in patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer and real-time prognosis prediction. Furthermore, we aim to develop pertinent nomograms and predictive models.MethodsClinical data and survival outcomes of patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, covering the period from 2010 to 2019. Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The training set consisted of a total of 11,386 patients for conditional overall survival (cOS) and 11,800 patients for conditional cancer-specific survival (cCSS), while the validation set comprised 4876 patients for cOS and 5055 patients for cCSS. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to identify independent risk factors influencing one-year postoperative cOS and cCSS. Subsequently, predictive nomograms for cOS and cCSS at 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, and 5-year intervals were constructed based on the identified prognostic factors. The performance of these nomograms was rigorously assessed through metrics including the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and the area under curve (AUC) derived from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Clinical utility was further evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsA total of 18,190 patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer were included in this study. Independent risk factors for one-year postoperative cOS and cCSS included age, pT stage, pN stage, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, receipt of chemotherapy, perineural invasion (PNI), presence of tumor deposits, the number of harvested lymph nodes, and marital status. Sex and tumor site were significantly associated with one-year postoperative cOS, while radiation therapy was notably associated with one-year postoperative cCSS. In the training cohort, the developed nomogram demonstrated a C-index of 0.701 (95% CI, 0.711–0.691) for predicting one-year postoperative cOS and 0.701 (95% CI, 0.713–0.689) for one-year postoperative cCSS. Following validation, the C-index remained robust at 0.707 (95% CI, 0.721–0.693) for one-year postoperative cOS and 0.700 (95% CI, 0.716–0.684) for one-year postoperative cCSS. ROC and calibration curves provided evidence of the model's stability and reliability. Furthermore, DCA underscored the nomogram’s superior clinical utility.ConclusionsOur study developed nomograms and predictive models for postoperative stage III survival in T3–T4 colon cancer with the aim of accurately estimating conditional survival. Survival bias in our analyses may lead to overestimation of survival outcomes, which may limit the applicability of our findings.

Conditional Survival of Patients with Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer After Surgery: A National Real-World Cohort Study.

The prognosis of limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) after surgery usually is estimated at diagnosis, but how the prognosis actually evolves over time for patients who survived for a predefined time is unknown. Data on patients with a diagnosis of LS-SCLC after surgery between 2004 and 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The 5-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CCSS) and conditional overall survival (COS) were calculated. This study analyzed 997 patients (555 women, 55.7%) with a median age, of 67 years (interquartile range [IQR], 60-73 years). The 5-year CCSS and COS increased from 44.7% and 38.3%, respectively, at diagnosis to 83.7% and 67.9% at 5 years after diagnosis. Although there were large differences with different stages (stages I, II, and III) at diagnosis (respectively 59.5%, 28.4%; 28.1% for CCSS and 50.6%, 24.8%, and 23.6% for COS), the gap decreased with time, and the rates were similar after 5 years (respectively 85.0%, 80.3%, and 79.4% for CCSS; 65.6%, 56.9%, and 61.3% for COS). The 5-year conditional survival for the patients who received lobectomy was better than for those who received sublobectomy or pneumonectomy. Multivariable analyses showed that only age and resection type were independent predictors for CCSS and COS, respectively, throughout the period. Conditional survival estimates for LS-SCLC generally increased over time, with the most significant improvement in patients with advanced stage of disease. Resection type and old age represented extremely important determinants of prognosis after a lengthy event-free follow-up period.

The impact of the HER2-low status on conditional survival in patients with breast cancer.

With recent advances in breast cancer (BC) treatment, the disease-free survival (DFS) of patients is increasing and the risk factors for recurrence and metastasis are changing. However, a dynamic approach to assessing the risk of recurrent metastasis in BC is currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a dynamically changing prediction model for recurrent metastases based on conditional survival (CS) analysis. Clinical and pathological data from patients with BC who underwent surgery at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between August 2011 and August 2022 were retrospectively analysed. The risk of recurrence and metastasis in patients with varying survival rates was calculated using CS analysis, and a risk prediction model was constructed. A total of 4244 patients were included in this study, with a median follow-up of 83.16 ± 31.59 months. Our findings suggested that the real-time DFS of patients increased over time, and the likelihood of DFS after surgery correlated with the number of years of prior survival. We explored different risk factors for recurrent metastasis in baseline patients, 3-year, and 5-year disease-free survivors, and found that low HER2 was a risk factor for subsequent recurrence in patients with 5-year DFS. Based on this, conditional nomograms were developed. The nomograms showed good predictive ability for recurrence and metastasis in patients with BC. Our study showed that the longer patients with BC remained disease-free, the greater their chances of remaining disease-free again. Predictive models for recurrence and metastasis risk based on CS analysis can help improve the confidence of patients fighting cancer and help doctors personalise treatment and follow-up plans.

Tumor differentiation-dependent conditional survival of patients with operable thyroid cancer.

Little is known about the changing risk profile of death and conditional survival in patients with operable thyroid cancer. This study aimed to investigate the annual hazard rate of cancer death, actuarial disease-specific survival (DSS), and conditional DSS in patients with thyroid cancer and explore the effects of tumor differentiation. Patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer (N = 132,354) between 2004 and 2019 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The hazard function was used to estimate the annual hazard rate of death. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used for the calculation and between-group comparison of actuarial DSS, respectively. The life table was used to estimate the conditional DSS. A total of 1896 (1.4%) patients died due to thyroid cancer during the follow-up period. Patients with ATC (68.9%, 313/454) were more likely to die than those with PDTC (19.4%, 171/883) or DTC (1.1%, 1412/131017). For the entire cohort, patients with DTC and PDTC had excellent and relatively stable one-year conditional survival, respectively; patients with ATC had the worst one-year conditional survival, but they achieved the greatest improvements. The worst one-year conditional survival and the most obvious improvement were seen in patients with ATC regardless of any SEER Summary Stage. Prognosis improved over time in a tumor differentiation-dependent manner in patients with operable thyroid cancer after diagnosis. This information provides more precise dynamic evaluations of the long-term prognosis of thyroid cancer survivors and paramount clinical implications for individualized treatment and surveillance.

Conditional survival analysis of patients with resected non–small cell lung cancer

BackgroundConditional survival (CS) analyses provide an estimate of survival accounting for years already survived after treatment. We aim to evaluate the difference between actuarial and conditional survival in patients following lung resection for non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In addition, CS analyses are used to examine whether prognosticators of survival change over time following surgery. MethodsPatients who underwent anatomic lung resection at a single institution for pathologic stage I-IIIA NSCLC between 2010 and 2021 were identified; those who underwent wedge resection for node-negative tumors ≤2 cm were also included. CS estimates were calculated as the probability of remaining disease-free after x years of nonrecurrence (CSx). Kaplan–Meier, log-rank, and Cox proportional hazard methods for examining CS were used for subgroup comparisons and assessing associations with baseline covariates. ResultsOverall, 863 patients met the study inclusion criteria, with a median follow-up of 44.1 months. Conditional overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were greater than actuarial rates at all time points after surgery. At the time of resection, male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.72; P = .032), tumor size >3 cm (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11-1.23; P < .001), node positivity (HR, 3.31; 95% CI, 2.52-4.33; P < .001), and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P < .001) were associated with DFS. However, if a patient lived 3 years without recurrence (CS3), these factors were no longer prognostic of DFS. ConclusionsConditional survival analyses provide dynamic assessments of OS and DFS after NSCLC resection. After 3 years without recurrence, certain characteristics associated with DFS at the time of surgery no longer prognosticate recurrence.

Racial disparities in conditional survival of patients with bladder cancer: a population-based study

BackgroundTraditional estimates can only provide static predictions of cancer outcomes and cannot assess the evolving effect of race on patient survival. This study aims to reveal the dynamic survival of patients with bladder cancer and to explore the evolving effect of race on patient prognosis.MethodsUsing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry, 99,590 white, 6,036 African American, and 4,685 Asian/Pacific Islander (API) patients with bladder cancer were identified. Conditional cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates, which could reflect the dynamic survival prediction of cancer patients, represented the primary outcomes, and were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier algorithm. The evolving effect of race on patient survival was evaluated by multivariable Cox regression in combination with conditional survival (CS) estimates.ResultsThe 5-year CSS for African American patients who had survived 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 years after definitive therapy improved from the baseline calculation by + 5.8 (84.4%), + 9.5 (87.4%), + 12.8 (90.0%), + 14.4 (91.3%), and + 14.7% (91.5%), respectively. The increasing trend also held for overall white and API patients, and for all patient subsets when CS was calculated according to different levels of sex, age, and disease stage. African Americans, despite having the worst survival at baseline, could have CSS comparable to their white and API counterparts after 4 years of survivorship. In addition, the risk of death for African Americans tended to decrease with increasing survival, and the risk was no longer significantly different from that of whites after 4 years of survival.ConclusionsWhile having the worst initial predicted outcomes, African Americans may eventually achieve comparable survival to white and API patients given several years of survivorship. As patient survival increases, African American race may lose its role as an indicator of poorer prognosis.

Conditional survival of patients with low-risk prostate cancer: Temporal changes in active surveillance permanence over time.

To determine risk categories for patients with prostate cancer (PCa) in active surveillance (AS) and to test the conditional survival (CS) that examined the effect of event-free survival since AS-entrance. From January 2012 to December 2020 we analyzed 606 patients with PCa enrolled in our AS program. Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots depicted AS-exit rate. Multivariable Cox regression models (MCRMs) tested for AS-exit rate independent predictors to determine risk categories. CS estimates were used to calculate overall AS-exit rate after event-free survival intervals of 1, 2, 3, and 5 years, and after stratification according to risk categories. At MCRMs PSAd ≥ 0.15 (HR: 1.43; P-value 0.04), PI-RADS 4-5 (HR: 2.56; P-value <0.001) and number of biopsy positive cores ≥ 2 (HR: 1.75; P-value <0.001) were independent predictors of AS-exit. These variables were used to determine risk categories: low-, intermediate- and high-risk. Overall, according to CS-analyses, 5-year AS-exit free rate increased from 59.7% at baseline, to 67.3%, 74.7%, and 89.4% in patients who remained in AS respectively ≥1, ≥2, ≥3 and ≥5 years. After stratification according to risk categories, in those patients who remained in AS ≥ 5 years, 5-year AS-exit free rates increased from 76.3% to 100% in patients with a low-risk, from 62.7% to 83.7% in patients with an intermediate-risk and from 42.3% to 87.5% in patients with a high-risk. CS models showed a direct relationship between event-free survival duration and subsequent AS permanence in overall PCa patients and after stratification according to risk categories.

Stage-Dependent Death Hazard and Conditional Survival of Patients with Papillary Thyroid Cancer.

Not applicable.

Conditional survival in patients treated for gastric cancer with a curative intent.

Conditional survival (CS) provides the probability that a patient who has already survived a certain number of years after treatment will survive an additional number of years. We aim to study the CS of patients with gastric cancer. Patients who underwent curative intent treatment for gastric cancer in a single institution between 2007 and 2018 were included in the analysis. The probability (CS) that a patient who has already survived x years will survive an additional y year, was calculated as CS (y/x) = S(x + y)/S(x). The probability of surviving an additional 3 years if a patient had already survived 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after treatment were 64.2%, 74.5%, 81.6%, 83.2%, and 88.2%, respectively whereas the 4-, 5-, 6-, 7-, and 8-year actuarial OS were only 47.2%, 43.2%, 41%, 39.4%, and 38.2%, respectively. The independent prognostic factors associated with poor survival were age >60 years, T stage ≥T3, N stage ≥N2, proximal tumor location, and lymph node ratio > 0.18. Patients with these high-risk features showed the greatest increase in CS3 over time. CS estimates provided a more dynamic prognostic information over time for patients treated for gastric cancer with curative intent.

Conditional survival after surgery for metastatic tumors of the spine: does prognosis change over time?

Conditional survival (CS) provides a dynamic prediction of patient survival by incorporating the time an individual has already survived given their disease specific characteristics. The objective of the current study was to estimate CS among patients after surgery for spinal cord compression or spinal instability, as well as stratify CS according to relevant patient- and disease-related characteristics. The clinical outcomes of 361 patients undergoing surgical management of metastatic spinal tumors were retrospectively analyzed. Stratification of this cohort according to disease and surgery-specific characteristics allowed for univariate and multivariate statistical analyses of our study population. Observed overall and conditional survival estimates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. 12-month conditional survival in patients undergoing surgical management of metastatic spine tumors increased from 57% at baseline to 70% at 24months following spine surgery. Overall survival (OS) was influenced by CCI grade, Katagiri tumor type, presence of lung metastasis, type of spine surgery, presence of postoperative systemic therapy and ambulatory status at follow-up. Analyses of OS and CS by prognostic strata were similar with exception of stratification by surgery type. Differences in survival between strata tend to converge over time. Unfavorable factors for OS appear to be less relevant after a period of 24months following spine surgery. Patients after surgery for metastatic tumors of the spine can expect a positive trend in conditional survival as survivorship increases. Even patients with a more severe disease can be encouraged with gains in conditional survival over time. Level IV (retrospective cohort study).

Conditional survival in patients with stage IB‐IIIA melanoma undergoing sentinel node biopsy in Queensland: A longitudinal study

Tumour characteristics such as thickness and ulceration, along with sentinel lymph node (SLN) status, have been essential in predicting survival in patients with locally invasive melanomas at the time of diagnosis. It is unclear if these prognostic factors are relevant 1, 2 or 5 years after diagnosis. The key aim of this project was to analyse conditional survival in a cohort of Queensland patients with stage IB to IIIA melanomas (American Joint Committee on Cancer's staging system, 8th version) and to test the relevance of clinicopathological prognostic factors for melanoma outcome after varying intervals of survival time. Patients with primary invasive cutaneous melanoma who were referred to a tertiary melanoma clinic and underwent SLN biopsy between 1994 and 2011 were ascertained. The effect of patient and tumour characteristics on melanoma survival were calculated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models at diagnosis and at variable times after diagnosis. The final analysis included 651 patients (average age 49 years, 55.5% male) with stage IB to IIIA melanoma. At diagnosis, and after 1 and 2 years survived, SLN positivity, thickness and ulceration were predictive of 10-year survival since diagnosis. However, once patients survived 5 years, only SLN status was predictive. Overall conditional melanoma survival improved with increasing time survived. Five years after diagnosis, 10-year conditional melanoma survival (MSS) was 91% (95% CI 86%-95%) compared with 85% (82%-88%) predicted at diagnosis. The improvement in MSS was observed mainly for Stage II melanoma patients and not for those with a positive SLN biopsy. This study confirms the improvement of prognosis according to time survived since diagnosis suggesting that after 5 years survival the classic prognostic indicators may not have the same influence.

Conditional Survival of Patients with Prostate Cancer Undergoing External-Beam Radiotherapy on RTOG 0126 and 0415

<h3>Purpose/Objective(s)</h3> Patients with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer (PCa) treated with radiation (RT) alone have excellent outcomes with anticipated long overall survival (OS). Although biochemical failure (BF) and OS rates are commonly reported from time of diagnosis, the relevance of such data diminishes over time for survivors. Conditional survival analyses can provide more relevant survival estimates for long-term survivors and help patients understand changing recurrence risks. The primary objective of this study was to report conditional OS and BF in patients with low- and intermediate-risk PCa treated with RT. A secondary objective was to determine if prognostic factors at initial treatment remain relevant later in survival. <h3>Materials/Methods</h3> We performed a pooled analysis of patients with low- or intermediate- risk PCa enrolled in RTOG 0126 or 0415 treated with RT alone. OS was calculated (Kaplan–Meier) at various survivorship timepoints. Cumulative incidence (Phoenix definition) was used to calculate BF rates. Risk factors (Gleason score [GS], T stage, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and EQD2 of prescribed dose) were analyzed at different timepoints using multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling (MVA). <h3>Results</h3> A total of 2,591 patients were included (median age, 69 y; median PSA, 6.4 ng/mL; 48.5% with GS 7; 34.2% with stage T2 disease). Median follow-up was 6.9 y. The 3-, 5-, and 8-y OS from time of treatment were 96.2%, 89.2%, and 41.0%, respectively. Patients with 1-, 3-, and 5y of survival, had an additional 5 y survival rate of 73.3%, 42.6%, and 20.8%, respectively. On MVA at diagnosis, GS 7 (HR 1.352, <i>P</i> = 0.003), increasing age (HR 1.054, <i>P</i> < 0.001), and increasing PSA (HR 1.054, <i>P</i> = 0.01), were associated with all-cause mortality. For patients who survived 5 y, only age (HR 1.071, <i>P</i> < 0.001) was predictive of mortality. The 3-, 5-, and 8-y rates of BF from time of treatment were 7.1%, 12.5%, and 22.3%, respectively. For patients surviving 1, 3, and 5 y without BF, the rates of BF in the next 5 y were 14.2%, 17.2%, and 18.8%, respectively. On MVA, GS 7 (HR 1.907, <i>P</i> < 0.001), T2 disease (HR 1.375, <i>P</i> < 0.001), and increasing PSA (HR 1.114, <i>P</i> < 0.001) were significantly associated with increased risk of BF, whereas increasing EQD2 was associated with decreased BF rates (HR 0.922, <i>P</i> < 0.001). For patients who survived 5 y without BF, all initial prognostic factors remained statistically significant: GS 7 (HR 2.401, <i>P</i> < 0.001), stage T2 (HR 1.344, <i>P</i> = 0.0396), PSA (HR 1.109, <i>P</i>< 0.001), and EQD2 (HR 0.887, <i>P</i> < 0.001). <h3>Conclusion</h3> Conditional risk of BF increases over time for patients with PCa initially treated with RT. Initial biologic and treatment variables remain prognostic at long-term follow-up, with dose-escalated RT continuing to be associated with decreased BF. This data can be used to counsel patients for their risk of BF in follow-up and to help decide on the frequency of PSA monitoring.

Treatment Response and Conditional Survival in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Patients Treated with FOLFIRINOX: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background FOLFIRINOX chemotherapy is the current Dutch standard of care for locally advanced (LAPC) and metastatic pancreatic cancer (PDAC) patients with good performance status. The objective of this study was to evaluate real-world response rates and survival in advanced PDAC and to assess conditional survival after FOLFIRINOX. Methods A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was conducted in four hospitals in the Netherlands. Consecutive patients with LAPC or metastatic PDAC, treated with FOLFIRINOX, were included. Results Between 2012 and 2018, 284 patients were included: n = 136 with LAPC and n = 148 with metastatic PDAC. Objective response rates were similar in both the groups: 14.0% in LAPC and 18.2% in metastatic patients. The disease control rate was higher in LAPC patients (77.2%) compared to metastatic PDAC (51.4%, P < 0.001). Median overall survival (OS) in LAPC patients was 12.7 months (95% CI 11.4–14.1 months). Their 2-year survival probability increased from 14% to 26% one year after the completion of FOLFIRINOX. Median OS in metastatic PDAC patients was 8.1 months (95% CI 6.5–9.6 months); 2-year survival probability increased from 10% to 29% after one year. Discussion. Our study provides real-world estimates of response rates, survival, and conditional survival in patients with advanced PDAC treated with FOLFIRINOX. These results are useful for patient counseling and clinical decision making.

Prognostic variables for conditional survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent minimally invasive surgery

BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) survival is mainly reported at the time of treatment. Conditional survival is another prognostic tool to evaluate ESCC patients who has survived more than one year since treatment.MethodsWe analyzed data from 705 ESCC patients who underwent minimally invasive surgery between 2013 and 2016. Using the Kaplan–Meier method, we computed a 5-year relative conditional survival. We also investigated the prognostic factors associated with survival using Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsConditional survival improved over time for all cohorts of ESCC patients who survived a period after surgery. The greatest improve in conditional survival were observed in patients 2 years after surgery. In addition, the results of the Cox survival model from the time of surgery, T stage (p < 0.001), N stage (p < 0.001), and anastomotic leak (p = 0.022), were significantly associated with survival. However, the results of the Cox survival model from 2 years after surgery, N stage (p < 0.001), and anastomotic leak (p = 0.032) were significantly associated with survival.ConclusionFor ESCC patients who survived a period after surgery, the largest increases in conditional survival were observed in patients 2 years after surgery. We suggest that patients with anastomotic leakage and higher T and N stages should be strictly screened according to various time, and that conditional survival should be used as a powerful prognostic tool for ESCC patients.

A0283 - Conditional survival of patients with low-risk prostate cancer: Temporal changes in active surveillance permanence according to risk stratification

A0283 - Conditional survival of patients with low-risk prostate cancer: Temporal changes in active surveillance permanence according to risk stratification

Conditional Long-Term Survival Among Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) Patients Treated with Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (AHCT)

Introduction: AHCT is standard therapy for chemosensitive relapsed DLBCL and survival from the time of AHCT has been well described in large patient cohorts. Outcomes have not been well described for patients who survive a certain time period after transplantation, when the risks of relapse have diminished. We performed a retrospective cohort study to delineate conditional survival in patients with DLBCL who survived 1, 2, and 5 yrs after AHCT. We also compare survival for these cohorts to their general population controls.Methods: We included 371 consecutive adult (≥18 yrs) patients with DLBCL who received AHCT at our institution from 2000-2014. 10-year overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), relapse mortality (RM) and non-relapse mortality (NRM) from AHCT were determined for three cohorts: 1-yr survivors (N=272), 2-yr survivors (N=232), and 5-yr survivors (N=157). Outcomes were estimated with Kaplan-Meier (OS, PFS) or cumulative incidence (RM, NRM). Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate prognostic factors for OS and PFS. In addition, standardized mortality ratio (SMR) compared to the age-, gender- and race-matched healthy population was estimated for each survivor cohort.Results: Median age for 1-yr cohort was 56 yrs (19-78 yrs). 61% were male, 78% were stage III/IV and 45% had B-symptoms at diagnosis, 28% had received prior radiation and 81% had received prior rituximab. 77% patients received chemotherapy mobilization and Bu/Cy/VP was conditioning regimen for 97% patients. Median followup for this 1 yr cohort was 8 yrs (1.3-16.5 yrs). OS, PFS, RM and NRM at 10 yrs after AHCT are described in Table 1. OS and PFS improved with increasing survival after transplantation. Relapse was the primary cause of death in 1- and 2-yr survivors; cumulative incidence of RM and NRM was low but similar in 5-yr survivors. As expected, in multivariable analyses, lymphoma relapse prior to landmark time was associated with significantly worse OS and PFS for 1-, 2- and 5-yr survivors. Among other patient and disease characteristics evaluated in risk factor analysis, age and duration of AHCT hospitalization were the only factors associated with OS and PFS. Older age (10 yr increments) was associated with greater mortality risk among 1- and 2-yr but not 5-yr survivors. Older age at AHCT was associated with worse PFS in all three survivor cohorts. Prolonged hospital stay, as a surrogate for early post-transplant complications, was also associated with lower OS for all three cohorts, and lower PFS for 2-yr and 5-yr survivors. Survival was lower compared to the general population, although it improved and approached that of healthy peers with increasing post-transplant survival (SMR 4.0, 3.0 and 1.8 among 1-, 2- and 5-yr survivors, respectively, Figure 1).Conclusions: Conditional OS and PFS for DLBCL patients treated with AHCT improves with increasing survival post-transplantation. Relapse is the primary driver of poor survival, although the probability of death due to relapse decreases over time. NRM continues to be an important cause of treatment failure even among patients surviving 5-years after AHCT. Our data provide personalized survivorship information for DLBCL AHCT recipients and identify risk factors for poor survival. Our study also underscores the need for continued research on decreasing relapse risk and for surveillance for prevention and management of late-complications in this population. [Display omitted] DisclosuresKharfan-Dabaja:Incyte: Speakers Bureau; Alexion Pharmaceuticals: Speakers Bureau; Seattle Genetics: Speakers Bureau. Majhail:Anthem, Inc.: Consultancy; Sanofi: Honoraria.

Conditional Survival of Surgically Treated Patients with Lung Cancer: A Comprehensive Analyses of Overall, Recurrence-free, and Relative Survival.

PurposeSurvival probability changes over time in cancer survivors. This study examined conditional survival in patients undergoing curative resection for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).Materials and MethodsFive-year conditional recurrence-free survival (CRFS), conditional overall survival (COS), and conditional relative survival (CRS) up to 10 years after surgery were calculated in patients who underwent NSCLC resection from 1994 to 2016. These rates were stratified according to age, sex, year of diagnosis, pathological stage, tumor histology, smoking status, comorbidity, and lung function.ResultsFive-year CRFS increased from 65.6% at baseline to 90.9% at 10 years after surgery. Early differences in 5-year CRFS according to stratified patient characteristics disappeared, except for age: older patients exhibited persistently lower 5-year CRFS. Five-year COS increased from 72.7% to 78.3% at 8 years and then decreased to 75.4% at 10 years. Five-year CRS increased from 79.0% at baseline to 86.8% at 10 years. Older age and higher pathologic stage were associated with lower 5-year COS and CRS up to 10 years after surgery. Female patients, those with adenocarcinoma histology, non-smokers, patient without comorbidities and had good lung function showed higher COS and CRS.ConclusionCRFS improved over time, but significant risk remained after 5 years. CRS slightly improved over time but did not reach 90%, suggesting significant excess mortality compared to the general population. Age and stage remained significant predictors of conditional survival several years after surgery. Our conditional survival estimates should help clinicians and patients make informed treatment and personal life decisions based on survivorship status.

Conditional survival in patients with esophageal or gastroesophageal junction cancer after receiving various treatment modalities.

BackgroundTo estimate the adjusted conditional overall survival (COS) in patients with esophageal cancer after receiving various treatment modalities via a national population‐based database, and to investigate the possible time‐dependent effects.Materials and MethodsEligible patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer between 2000 and 2016 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. The Kaplan‐Meier method was used to calculate conventional survival time. The inverse probability of treatment weighting method was used to estimate the adjusted COS in patients receiving different treatment modalities. Landmark analysis was employed to investigate the possible time‐dependent effects of different treatment modalities in patients who had survived a certain period of time.ResultsA total of 25,232 patients were included in the final analysis. The conventional 5‐year overall survival was 19.3%. The 5‐year adjusted COS increased most for the first 3 years, and increased slightly afterwards. In patients with regional esophageal or gastroesophageal junction cancer, stage‐specific analysis showed that surgery only and preoperative radiation therapy benefited most for patients with localized disease, preoperative radiation therapy plus surgery benefited regional, and preoperative radiation therapy plus surgery benefited distant disease, with the 5‐year adjusted COS given patients had survived 3 years being 67.0% (95% CI 65.2%–68.7%), 59.9% (95% CI 58.3%–61.5%), 58.4% (95% CI 56.3%–60.5%), and 61.8% (95% CI 59.5%–64.1%), respectively. In time‐dependent analysis, the benefits of surgery only in localized cases were prominent within 48 months after diagnosis. Preoperative radiation therapy showed long‐lasting benefits in patients with regional disease. In patients with distant disease, all treatment modalities showed similar and short‐term effects.ConclusionsThe adjusted COS in patients with esophageal cancer increased as time accrued after receiving various treatment modalities. The time‐dependent effects in specific tumor stage provided a dynamic view on optimization of treatment strategies.