Introduction and Objective: The Dysglycemia Risk Score (DRISK) is a validated, EHR-based risk score to identify patients at high risk for undiagnosed dysglycemia (prediabetes and T2D). DRISK performs better than screening guidelines to detect prevalent, undiagnosed dysglycemia; however, its ability to predict future development of T2D is unknown. Methods: Participants in a T2D screening study, excluding those with T2D on baseline screening, were analyzed. DRISK score (range 0-28; components: age, race, BMI, hypertension, random blood glucose (RBG)) was calculated from EHR data. Incident T2D was defined using a validated, EHR computable phenotype (2 of 3: HbA1c > 6.5%, T2D diagnosis codes; antihyperglycemic medications) calculated after the initial screening visit until the patients’ last EHR encounter. We used the baseline DRISK score to predict incident T2D using a Cox proportional hazard model with censoring for death or loss to followup. We adjusted for baseline HbA1c to address potential confounding during followup. Results: A total of 502 individuals without T2D at baseline (mean age 48y; BMI 30 kg/m2; 70% female; 69% Hispanic, 22% Black; 35% hypertension; 31% prediabetes (HbA1c≥5.7%); mean DRISK score 9.5) were analyzed. Over a mean followup of 5.8 years, 12% progressed to T2D. Those having higher BMI, hypertension, prediabetes, and higher HbA1c, RBG and DRISK scores at baseline were more likely to develop T2D (p<0.05 for all). Patients with DRISK scores ≥10 were more likely to progress to T2D than those with DRISK scores <10 (HR=1.9, p<0.015). ADA and USPSTF screening guidelines (HR 1.4 and 1.3 respectively; p>0.05 for both) did not predict future development of T2D in this cohort. Conclusion: DRISK can identify individuals at high risk of progression to T2D and has greater prognostic value than commonly used screening guidelines. By utilizing routinely available, structured EHR data, DRISK may help identify patients at high risk of progressing to T2D within health systems. Disclosure A. Mamun: None. M. McGuire: None. V. Merrill: None. S. Zhang: None. N.O. Santini: None. B. Moran: None. L. Meneghini: Employee; Sanofi. Stock/Shareholder; Sanofi. I. Lingvay: Consultant; Abbvie, Altimmune, Amgen, Alveus Tx, Antag Tx, Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Betagenon AB, Bioio Inc., Biomea, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Carmot, Cytoki Pharma, Eli Lilly, Intercept, Janssen/J&J, Juvena, Keros Ther, Novo Nordisk, Pharmaventures, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sanofi, Shionogi, Source Bio, Structure Therapeutics, TARGET RWE, TERNS Pharma, The Comm Group, WebMD, and Zealand Pharma. Research Support; Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Boehringer-Ingelheim. E. Halm: None. M.E. Bowen: Research Support; Boehringer-Ingelheim. Funding National Institute of Diabetes Digestive and Kidney Diseases at NIH (K23DK104065)
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