Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan Research Articles

The large‐scale restoration of fire and water regimes in Everglades National Park reveal little change in plant diversity along an elevational gradient

Quantifying the response of plant diversity to large‐scale restoration is essential for measuring management success. One of the world's largest restoration efforts began in 2000 in the Everglades ecosystem in Florida, United States, through the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In coordination with ongoing fire management, this restoration effort aims to restore natural hydrologic and fire regimes in this dynamic ecosystem. Restored water and fire regimes in the Everglades interact along an elevational gradient between seasonally inundated marl prairie and frequently burned pine rockland on Long Pine Key in Everglades National Park. To determine the impact of management on plant community richness and composition, we resampled transects spanning the elevational gradient between marl prairie and pine rockland initially sampled prior to the implementation of current restoration efforts (circa 1997–1999). We measured percent plant cover and developed generalized linear mixed models to determine the effects of fire frequency, average water depth, and elevation on plant species richness and composition across the two time periods. Additionally, we used species‐level random effects to examine how individual species respond to each environmental variable. We failed to detect any systematic shifts in plant composition in response to fire and water management. However, we found that complex interactions between fire and water structure plant composition and maximize species richness along gradients of water depth and elevation, with low, moderate, and high burn frequencies increasing richness in wet, moderately wet, and dry sites, respectively.

Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration.

One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial-temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (-88%), clupeids (-55%), hardhead silverside (-15%), mojarras (-117%), and Portunid crabs (-16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler-preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (-40%), Atlantic tarpon (-73%), and common snook (-507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler-preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long-term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.

How Are Man-Made Changes in Freshwater Flow Related to the Abundance of Juvenile Estuarine Fishes?

Changes in freshwater flow to estuaries can cause a suite of ecosystem impacts including eutrophication and alterations to plant communities, zooplankton populations, and other biota. In southwest Florida, historical manipulation of freshwater flow due to development, canals, and drainage ditches is pervasive. Because there are estuaries with reduced, increased, and relatively natural freshwater flow, this region presents an ideal system to study how these changes relate to downstream fish abundances. We used a 20-year trawl dataset focused on juvenile and small-bodied fish from three mangrove-lined sub-estuaries with contrasting flow conditions in southwest Florida’s Ten Thousand Islands to identify important environmental and temporal variables influencing fish populations. We used generalized additive models to investigate total fish abundance, species richness, diversity, and the abundances of 23 ecologically, recreationally, or commercially important species and describe their relationships with important environmental and temporal variables. While salinity and temperature had species-specific relationships with fish abundances, seasonality, interannual variability, and sub-estuary were more closely related to fish than salinity and temperature in most cases. Only 8 of 23 species responded most strongly to temperature, and only 1 species responded most strongly to salinity. This suggests that for most species in our study, temporal factors such as timing of spawning and recruitment variability had stronger relationships with the structure of fish populations than changes in freshwater flow. This work quantified how changes in freshwater flow, using salinity as a proxy, may relate to downstream fish abundances and therefore the potential implications of planned watershed restoration that is part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan.

The Importance of Paleoecology in Everglades Restoration Science and Management

Paleoecology studies provide pre-instrument data from the Everglades painting an informative picture of physical, biological, and ecological conditions prior to human intervention. Because Florida’s development history is relatively recent, and because observational data span only the last half-century, managers rely on paleoecology data as the basis for important decisions regarding multi-decadal and expensive restoration. Effective restoration depends strongly on the establishment of restoration targets, especially pre-development vegetation and hydropatterns (flow, depth, timing, distribution). Coring data were instrumental in the reconstruction of paleo hydrologic and vegetation trends in the ARM Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, helping managers understand the magnitude and causes of 20th century problems. Similarly, sediment cores from the Big Cypress National Preserve led managers to understand that the development of marl prairies in Everglades National Park – critical habitat for the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow – was a 20th century phenomenon resulting from past water management practices. Finally, paleoecological and modeling studies in Florida Bay and the Everglades for the $20B+ Comprehensive Everglades Restoration plan established freshwater flow targets now used by managers. Although restoration of historic freshwater flow is not feasible, knowledge about Everglades hydrology and ecology prior to human intervention plays a pivotal role in the design, selection, and construction of restoration projects. Paleoecological data, coupled with decadal-scale monitoring and other long-term studies, provide the long-term perspective necessary to understand decadal, to centennial, and to millennial time-scale processes. While these data are cost-effective to procure, a long-term commitment to funding these types of studies is essential to provide the scientific foundation for restoration.

What is the potential for extirpating spectacled caiman from Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan projects in South Florida?

What is the potential for extirpating spectacled caiman from Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan projects in South Florida?

Geophysical Characterization in the Shallow Water Estuarine Lakes of the Southern Everglades, Florida

Anthropogenic activities have greatly modified freshwater flows through Everglades National Park (ENP) such that saltwater has intruded extensively inland from the coastline, causing coastal lakes and their ecosystems to be exposed to varying salinity conditions. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) makes an effort to restore the quantity, quality, timing, and distribution of freshwater flow in ENP with a goal of reducing salinity conditions within the coastal communities and adjacent estuaries. An understanding of the temporal and spatial variations of surface water and shallow groundwater salinity in the coastal lakes of ENP is needed to evaluate restoration efforts. Geophysical surveys were conducted between 2016 to 2019 using electrical resistivity and electromagnetic (EM) methods in the coastal lakes of ENP. A mean local formation factor of 10.7 ± 1.8 was calculated for the region by comparing the lakes’ bottom formation inverted electrical resistivity soundings with coincident pore water resistivity measured in groundwater wells. The conductivity of surface and groundwater increased during the dry season, reflecting decreased precipitation, increased evapotranspiration, and the increasing influence of saline water from Florida Bay. Spatially, salinity in the lakes increased from west to east in the surface water with an opposite trend observed in the shallow groundwater. Along the south to north inland direction, the salinity of both surface water and groundwater decreased. This study demonstrates that floating electrical resistivity and EM methods can characterize the subsurface formation resistivity and describe temporal and spatial patterns of surface and shallow groundwater conductivity.

Dynamics of Florida milk production and total phosphate in Lake Okeechobee

A central tenant of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is nutrient reduction to levels supportive of ecosystem health. A particular focus is phosphorus. We examine links between agricultural production and phosphorus concentration in the Everglades headwaters: Kissimmee River basin and Lake Okeechobee, considered an important source of water for restoration efforts. Over a span of 47 years we find strong correspondence between milk production in Florida and total phosphate in the lake, and, over the last decade, evidence that phosphorus concentrations in the lake water column may have initiated a long-anticipated decline.

Evaluating the rainwater killifish (Lucania parva) as an indicator of Everglades restoration

Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) objectives include the return of more natural salinity regimes to the bays and estuaries of southern Florida (U.S.A.). We examined for spatiotemporal patterns in rainwater killifish (Lucania parva) density and size with emphasis on relations with salinity, salinity variation, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), temperature, and depth. Using linear quantile mixed models (LQMM) and cluster analyses, we analyzed 18 consecutive wet‐dry seasons (9 years) of enclosure trap data from 44 fixed stations along mainland shoreline of southern Biscayne Bay, Florida. The LQMM results suggested that SAV was the strongest influencing, and (potentially) most limiting, habitat variable on killifish density, and that decreases in mean salinity and salinity variation may result in higher killifish densities in our study domain. Killifish size‐habitat relationships were few. Cluster analysis of stations, based on killifish densities across time, failed to reveal clear spatial fish density gradients, consistent density hot‐spots, or grouping according to median habitat conditions. However, cluster analysis of seasons, based on killifish densities across space, indicated that high densities were associated with the wet season and low densities with the dry, although this depended on year. Our analyses suggest that realization of lower salinities and lower salinity variation in our study domain, if they are not accompanied by SAV decreases, may enhance killifish populations and/or their role as prey. Owing to its high stress ‐tolerance and extreme variability in density, L. parva is not an ideal indicator species of CERP‐modified salinity conditions, but warrants tracking as restoration activities ensue.

Ecosystem structure and resilience of the Florida Bay Estuary: an original ecosystem model with implications for everglades restoration

Restricted from its historic freshwater input from the Everglades, the Florida Bay estuary is plagued by hypersaline conditions and disturbances such as aperiodic seagrass die-off events. One of the largest restoration efforts in the US, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore the freshwater inputs lost. Providing world-renowned recreational fishing opportunities and nursery habitat for valuable commercial fisheries, the bay’s condition, coupled with the potential changes from CERP and future climate, highlight the need to implement an ecosystem-based management (EBM) approach. We developed a comprehensive ecosystem model of Florida Bay using Ecopath with Ecosim to provide a thorough understanding of its structure and resilience to environmental disturbances. The results supported the hypothesis that the bay is stabilised through detrital pathways but is not driven primarily through bottom-up control as predicted. Several predator–prey relationships are identified for suggested ecological attention in fisheries management, including the ecological benefits of the forage species pink shrimp, clupeids, pinfish and mullets, and a negative top-down effect of common snook on red drum. The results further support the hypothesis that the restoration of freshwater flows will improve overall resilience in Florida Bay, namely by providing a regime of lower salinity and reduced nutrient enrichment.

Economic valuation of the ecological response to hydrologic restoration in the Greater Everglades ecosystem

Economic analyses incorporating ecological and hydrological benefits are useful in guiding and justifying large and complex environmental restoration programs. The Greater Everglades region in Florida, USA is a large area of freshwater and estuarine wetlands adjacent to dense human populations undergoing an extensive restoration effort. Six Everglades restoration scenarios were modeled involving combinations of decompartmentalization (removal of canals and levees), extent of seepage control, and volume of water storage (296–3084 million m3)—all core components of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. Under these scenarios, we simulated changes in ecological indicators across the Everglades, including Everglade snail kites and apple snails, wading birds, American alligators, and spotted seatrout. We also evaluated reductions of harmful discharges from Lake Okeechobee to the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee estuaries in each scenario. Results were structured as options in a willingness-to-pay survey to aid in quantifying the benefits of restoration. Overall, we found Everglades restoration would increase ecosystem service benefits by $1.18 billion to $1.53 billion annually. A moderate amount of water storage improved ecosystem service benefits for Everglade snail kites and apple snails, American alligators, and wading birds, but additional storage led to equal or reduced benefits. For discharge reduction and spotted seatrout, ecosystem service benefits increased in proportion to the volume of water storage. Moderate water storage (1850 million m3) led to the greatest total ecosystem service benefits for the entire region, while the highest water storage volume led to the greatest benefits for specific Everglades regions like Florida Bay, St. Lucie, and Caloosahatchee estuaries. These results demonstrate the importance of economic valuation in estimating the potential ecosystem service benefits from large-scale environmental restoration and as a decision-support tool for prioritizing projects.

Public preferences for ecological indicators used in Everglades restoration.

The Everglades is one of the largest wetland ecosystems in the world covering almost 18,000 square miles from central Florida southward to Florida Bay. Over the 20th century, efforts to drain the Everglades for agriculture and development severely damaged the ecosystem so that today roughly 50% of the historic flow of water through the Everglades has been diverted elsewhere. In an attempt to restore the Everglades, the U.S. Congress authorized the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) in 2000, expected to cost over $16 billion and to take several decades to complete. We used the results from a stated preference choice experiment (SPCE) survey of Florida households to estimate the willingness to pay for several ecological attributes related to CERP performance indicators likely to be impacted by Everglades restoration. We also used a latent class model (LCM) to explore preference heterogeneity among respondents. On average, survey respondents were willing to pay for improvements in all of the attributes included in the survey, namely increased populations of wading birds, American alligators, endangered snail kites, and spotted seatrout, and reduced polluted discharges from Lake Okeechobee to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie rivers. Willingness to pay was highest for reduced polluted discharges from Lake Okeechobee.

Using historical information and data to strengthen planning for environmental protection and management at Everglades National Park, South Florida

The early environmental conditions in many national parks fit the favorable description given to Everglades National Park (ENP) at the time of its founding that the park’s wilderness and ecological resources were “superlative in value.” With the understanding that wilderness does not mean complete human exclusion, this study examines the possibilities, interests, and difficulties associated with establishing the historical superlative state of the park’s resources as a target for current restoration efforts. The focus is specifically on ENP, as the park’s existence was considered justified only if its superlative and pristine wilderness conditions could be retained in the future. Data were gathered from 18 historical documents obtained from the ENP museum and the online archives of the library shared by Florida International University and the University of Miami. The 1979 Master Plan, 2000 Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) and other literature provided planning information. Qualitative data analysis was performed using NVivo 11. The findings indicate that the current restoration targets are heavily influenced by shifting baseline syndrome and that outcomes fall short of no net loss of environmental resources. Therefore, the restoration targets not based on the region’s resources during the predrainage period are technically achievable but cannot produce a restored ecosystem in the long term. This study concludes that that planning initiatives should go beyond pollution reduction strategies to include historical conditions and acquisitions of conservation lands as targets for ongoing restoration efforts.

The Role of Flow in the Everglades Landscape

The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to improve water quantity, timing, distribution, and quality of the Greater Everglades System (Figure 1) over the next 35 years (SFERTF 1998). Not only is it the most expensive (8 billion dollars, 1999) and ambitious ecological restoration ever undertaken, but it involves multiple agencies and organizations analyzing natural and ecological attributes to recover the natural system. A critically important but often overlooked aspect of the Everglades is the role of flow--the actual movement of water across the landscape--in creation and maintenance of habitats for Everglades plants and animals. Successful restoration of the Everglades landscape requires a thorough understanding of the role of flow (SCT 2003). This document is CIR1452, one of a series of the Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Department, University of Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. Publication date: December, 2004.
 CIR 1452/UW199: The Role of Flow in the Everglades Landscape (ufl.edu)

American Alligator Ecology and Monitoring for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

The American alligator once occupied all wetland habitats in south Florida, from sinkholes and ponds in pinelands to freshwater sloughs to mangrove estuaries. Nearly all aquatic life in the Everglades is affected by alligators (Beard, 1938). As a top predator in their ecosystem, they undergo an extraordinary change in body size and consume different prey items as they grow. As ecosystem engineers, the trails and holes that alligators build provide refuge for wading birds and fish during the dry season, and their nests provide elevated areas for nests of other reptiles and germination of plants less tolerant of flooding. This document is Cir 1478, one of a series of the Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Department, University of Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. Publication date: November, 2005.

Pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus duorarum spatiotemporal abundance trends along an urban, subtropical shoreline slated for restoration.

The Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands (BBCW) project of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to reduce point-source freshwater discharges and spread freshwater flow along the mainland shoreline of southern Biscayne Bay. These actions will be taken to approximate conditions in the coastal wetlands and bay that existed prior to construction of canals and water control structures. An increase in pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duorarum) density to ≥ 2 individuals m-2 during the wet season (i.e., August-October) along the mainland shoreline was previously proposed as an indication of BBCW success. This study examined pre-BBCW baseline densities and compared them with the proposed target. Densities were monitored by seasonal (wet, dry) throw-trapping (1 m2 replicated in triplicate) at 47 sites along ~22 km of the southwestern Biscayne Bay coastline over 10 years (2007–2016). Densities varied across years and were most often higher in dry seasons. Quantile regression revealed density limitation by four habitat attributes: water temperature (°C), depth (m), salinity (ppt), and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV: % cover). Procrustean analyses that tested for concordance between the spatial and temporal distributions of shrimp densities and habitat metrics found that water temperature, water depth, and salinity explained ~ 28%, 28%, and 22% of density variability, respectively. No significant relationship with SAV was observed. Hierarchical clustering was used to identify spatially and temporally similar groupings of pink shrimp densities by sites or season-years. Significant groupings were then investigated with respect to potentially limiting habitat attributes. Six site and four year-season clusters were identified. Although habitat attributes significantly differed among spatial clusters, within-cluster median pink shrimp densities did not correlate with within-cluster minima, maxima, medians, or standard deviations of habitat attributes. Overall, pink shrimp density ( = 0.86, SD = 1.32 shrimp m-2) was significantly lower (t(α = 0.10,2),939 = -26.53, P <0.0001) than the 2 shrimp m-2 CERP Interim Goal target. Pink shrimp density corresponded significantly with salinity and appeared limited to density < 2 shrimp m-2 by salinity < ~18 ppt. Salinity is an environmental attribute that will be directly influenced by CERP implementation.

Sheet Flow Effects on Sediment Transport in a Degraded Ridge‐and‐Slough Wetland: Insights Using Molecular Markers

AbstractWetland ecosystems are often characterized by self‐organized landscape patterning, driven by abiotic and biotic factors. In the Florida Everglades, natural sheet flow is hypothesized to have distributed sediments to form the pattern of linear emergent ridges and submerged sloughs. Drainage and barriers to flow have degraded these microtopographic features. As part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan, the Decompartmentalization Physical Model is a landscape‐scale experiment to evaluate ecosystem responses to restored sheet flow by increasing freshwater inputs and removing barriers to flow. To test the proposed mechanism that flow rebuilds ridge‐slough microtopography by remobilizing slough sediments into ridges, four molecular markers capable of distinguishing ridge, slough, and microbial sources were evaluated in flocculent benthic sediments (floc) and advected sediments (collected in traps) during preflow, high‐flow, and postflow conditions over 4 years. The combined use of the four biomarkers, namely, the aquatic proxy (Paq), C20 highly branched isoprenoids, kaurenes, and botryococcenes, showed compositional patterns that clearly distinguished ridge and slough organic matter. Of these molecular parameters, the Paq was the most reliable in distinguishing among organic matter sources. Long‐term patterns in floc Paq at ridge and slough sites indicate a general increase, indicative of preferential mobilization of slough material. The Paq values for advected sediments are also strongly associated with slough environments, supporting temporal trends in floc samples. Our results tentatively confirm the hypothesis that increased flow in degraded ridge‐and‐slough wetlands, and associated sediment transport, is a potentially viable mechanism to restore historic patterns of microtopography.

Nutrients and phytoplankton in semienclosed lagoon systems in Florida Bay and their responses to changes in flow from Everglades restoration

AbstractThe largest estuarine flow restoration project is the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). In 2012, one of its first phases, the C‐111 Project, was initiated and designed to increase freshwater flow into northern Florida Bay. Effects of changes in flow and associated nutrients on phytoplankton abundance and composition were studied in two sets of interconnected, quasi‐enclosed saline lakes at the southern end of the Everglades that discharge into northern Florida Bay. After C‐111 implementation, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) decreased, driven by especially large declines in . In spite of N reduction, those lakes that has been oligotrophic prior to the project experienced an approximate doubling of phytoplankton biomass as nutrient ratios converged on Redfield proportions, and a shift to smaller sized cells and a loss of diatoms as availability declined. The other set of these lakes, previously highly eutrophic, sustained a significant, nearly 50%, decline in overall phytoplankton biomass, particularly larger sized cells, which, in turn, increased downstream. A chemostat model was invoked to explain these changes based on changes in flow and nutrients. In both systems the proportions of picocyanobacteria increased in the upper lakes as the relative availability of chemically reduced forms of N increased. Both lake systems may export algal biomass, changing the phytoplankton assemblage in northern Florida Bay. These lakes may also serve as buffers, damping the effects in Florida Bay itself, and they illustrate broad implications for estuaries that are impacted by natural or anthropogenic changes in flow.

Potential Impacts of Everglades Restoration on Lobster and Hard Bottom Communities in the Florida Keys, FL (USA)

The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is intended to restore the Everglades ecosystem (FL, USA) by altering its hydrology, with likely consequences for “downstream” estuarine and marine communities in Florida Bay and the Florida Keys. Spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus) are among several species of special concern with respect to CERP because they are of economic and ecological importance and because their nursery habitat may be impacted. We used agent-based, spatially explicit modeling to evaluate the possible impacts of changing water quality (temperature, salinity, harmful algal blooms (HABs)) on spiny lobsters and sponges, the latter of which provide shelter for juvenile lobsters. In our simulations, lobster abundance declined 6–24% in scenarios where salinity either decreased alone or in combination with HABs that kill sponges and are associated with changing water quality. The most severe decline in lobsters occurred when salinity was lowest and HABs occurred annually. One third of this decline was attributable to decreased salinity that increased lobster mortality and movement. However, the greatest impacts on lobsters were indirect. CERP-associated changes in salinity along with HABs caused a die-off of large sponges, resulting in higher predatory mortality on lobsters that depend on sponges for shelter in hard bottom nursery habitats. Sponges declined by ∼50% in simulations with HABs, whereas decreased salinity alone led to sponge mortality of 9–18%. In contrast, higher temperatures increased juvenile lobster growth and eventual recruitment by approximately 7%. Our results suggest that returning Florida Bay to more estuarine, pre-development conditions is likely to result in an ecosystem reversal that is detrimental to stenohaline marine taxa, a scenario with significant socioeconomic implications.

Restoring the foundation of the Everglades ecosystem: assessment of edaphic responses to hydrologic restoration scenarios

AbstractBecause of the significant role soils play in the health and function of the Everglades ecosystem, soil conservation is a central tenet of Everglades restoration. As such, it is critical to anticipate ecosystem responses to hydrologic restoration activities from the perspective of the soil component. The broad goal of this work was to investigate the resulting effects of various hydrologic restoration scenarios on soil processes of phosphorus and carbon accretion by modeling soil edaphic processes using the Everglades Landscape Model. The results of modeling effort suggest that full implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan provides the greatest spatial reduction of phosphorus (P) enrichment throughout the system. The existing condition baseline (ECB) scenario, which represents the current hydrologic and nutrient impaired condition, produced the highest observed rates of soil carbon accretion; however, this scenario is successful in accretion of soil carbon due to elevated P conditions, not restored hydrology. Management implications of restoration with respect to soil elucidated from this work include: (1) prioritization of habitat quality and ecosystem function (via P reduction) over carbon sequestration potential and (2) need to reduce P inputs before restoring hydrologic connectivity and historic flows.

Recurrence intervals of spatially simulated hydrologic metrics for restoration of Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis) habitat

Marl prairie, a diverse graminoid-dominated freshwater vegetation community in the Florida Everglades, provides a specialized niche for the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS). This paper describes a regional habitat suitability modeling approach to evaluating how changes in management from Everglades restoration may affect the CSSS. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator (CSSSMarlPrairie) is a spatially explicit model that integrates frequency (return periods) of target hydrologic conditions to simulate the anticipated response of marl prairie CSSS habitats to fluxing hydropatterns resulting from restoration projects, water management operations, and climatic change. The model integrates CSSS field survey data with the hydrologic targets at the resolution of the hydrologic simulation model (in this case, the Regional Simulation Model). The application of return periods for hydrologic events provides a novel approach for simulation of anticipated marl prairie responses in the southern Everglades and is readily applicable to evaluating targets of modeled wetland restoration scenarios elsewhere. CSSSMarlPrairie is intended to be used for decision support, in association with a suite of ecological models for additional species of management concern, to facilitate planning of ecosystem restoration projects such as those in the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan and recovery of the marl prairie habitats of the CSSS. A tentatively selected restoration plan for the central Everglades is projected to have mostly minor overall impacts to marl prairie CSSS habitats. Local substantial habitat shifts in and adjacent to designated habitat boundaries have been identified, however, that warrant management consideration.