Complex Earth System Models Research Articles

Simulating the mid-Pleistocene transition through regolith removal

Quaternary δ18O ice-volume proxy records show a transition from high frequency, small-amplitude glacial cycles to low frequency, large-amplitude glacial cycles. This reorganization of the climate system, termed the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT), is thought to reflect a change in land-ice response to orbital forcing, despite no significant change in orbital cycles during this period. One potential explanation for the MPT proposes that gradual erosion of high-latitude northern hemisphere regolith by multiple cycles of glaciation caused a transition in ice sheet response to external forcing. Here, we explore this “regolith hypothesis” using a complex Earth system model. We show that simulating a transition from deformable sediment to crystalline bedrock produces an evolution in ice-volume response similar to proxy reconstructions of the MPT. The simulated change in ice-volume response is due to a combination of climate and ice-flow changes, with crystalline bedrock producing thicker, colder ice sheets that accumulate more snowfall and have a smaller ablation zone. Further, experiments that include transient eccentricity-amplifying CO2 forcing show only small differences in ice response compared to those with orbital forcing only, suggesting that cycles of CO2 were not the primary cause of the MPT.

On Approaches to Analyze the Sensitivity of Simulated Hydrologic Fluxes to Model Parameters in the Community Land Model

Effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalized linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.

How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?

This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO2 gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been run with the same prescribed anthropogenic emission pathways and compared to analyses with complex earth system models (ESMs) in terms of concentration and radiative forcing levels. In our comparison, particular attention was given to the short-lived forcers' climate effects. In general, SCMs show forcing levels within the expert model ranges. However, the more simple SCMs seem to underestimate forcing differences between baseline and mitigation scenarios because of omission of ozone, black carbon and/or indirect methane forcing effects. Above all, results also show that among IAMs there is a significant spread (0.74 W/m2 in 2100) in non-CO2 forcing projections for a 2.6 W/m2 mitigation scenario, mainly due to uncertainties in the indirect effects of aerosols. This has large implications for determining optimal mitigation strategies among IAMs with regard to required CO2 forcing targets and policy costs.

Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models

Long-term climate experiments up to the year 2300 have been conducted using two full-scale complex Earth system models (ESMs), CESM1(BGC) and MIROC-ESM, for a CO2 emissions reduction pathway, termed Z650, where annual CO2 emissions peak at 11 PgC in 2020, decline by 50% every 30 years, and reach zero in 2160. The results have been examined by focusing on the approximate linear relationship between the temperature increase and cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the temperature increase is nearly proportional to the cumulative CO2 emissions in both models, this relationship does not necessarily provide a robust basis for the restriction of CO2 emissions because it is substantially modulated by non-CO2 forcing. CO2-induced warming, estimated from the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the models, indicates an approximate compensation of nonlinear changes between fast-mode responses to concentration changes at less than 10 years and slow-mode response at more than 100 years due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. In this estimate, CESM1(BGC) closely approximates a linear trend of 1.7 °C per 1000 PgC, whereas MIROC-ESM shows a deviation toward higher temperatures after the emissions peak, from 1.8 °C to 2.4 °C per 1000 PgC over the range of 400–850 PgC cumulative emissions corresponding to years 2000–2050. The evolution of temperature under zero emissions, 2160–2300, shows a slight decrease of about 0.1 °C per century in CESM1(BGC), but remains almost constant in MIROC-ESM. The fast-mode response toward the equilibrium state decreases with a decrease in the airborne fraction owing to continued CO2 uptake (carbon cycle inertia), whereas the slow-mode response results in more warming owing to continued heat uptake (thermal inertia). Several specific differences are noted between the two models regarding the degree of this compensation and in some key regional aspects associated with sustained warming and long-term climate risks. Overall, elevated temperatures continue for at least a few hundred years under zero emissions.

Potential increasing dominance of heterotrophy in the global ocean

Autotrophy is largely resource-limited in the modern ocean. Paleo evidence indicates this was not necessarily the case in warmer climates, and modern observations as well as standard metabolic theory suggest continued ocean warming could shift global ecology towards heterotrophy, thereby reducing autotrophic nutrient limitation. Such a shift would entail strong nutrient recycling in the upper ocean and high rates of net primary production (NPP), yet low carbon export to the deep ocean and sediments. We demonstrate transition towards such a state in the early 22nd century as a response to business-as-usual representative concentration pathway forcing (RCP8.5) in an intermediate complexity Earth system model in three configurations; with and without an explicit calcifier phytoplankton class and calcite ballast model. In all models nutrient regeneration in the near-surface becomes an increasingly important driver of primary production. The near-linear relationship between changes in NPP and global sea surface temperature (SST) found over the 21st century becomes exponential above a 2–4 global mean SST change. This transition to a more heterotrophic ocean agrees roughly with metabolic theory.

Deep water formation in the North Pacific and deglacial CO2rise

Deep water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean is widely thought to influence deglacial CO_2 rise and climate change; here we suggest that deep water formation in the North Pacific may also play an important role. We present paired radiocarbon and boron isotope data from foraminifera from sediment core MD02-2489 at 3640 m in the North East Pacific. These show a pronounced excursion during Heinrich Stadial 1, with benthic-planktic radiocarbon offsets dropping to ~350 years, accompanied by a decrease in benthic δ^(11)B. We suggest that this is driven by the onset of deep convection in the North Pacific, which mixes young shallow waters to depth, old deep waters to the surface, and low-pH water from intermediate depths into the deep ocean. This deep water formation event was likely driven by an increase in surface salinity, due to subdued atmospheric/monsoonal freshwater flux during Heinrich Stadial 1. The ability of North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) formation to explain the excursions seen in our data is demonstrated in a series of experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth system model. These experiments also show that breakdown of stratification in the North Pacific leads to a rapid ~30 ppm increase in atmospheric CO_2, along with decreases in atmospheric δ^(13)C and Δ^(14)C, consistent with observations of the early deglaciation. Our inference of deep water formation is based mainly on results from a single sediment core, and our boron isotope data are unavoidably sparse in the key HS1 interval, so this hypothesis merits further testing. However, we note that there is independent support for breakdown of stratification in shallower waters during this period, including a minimum in δ^(15)N, younging in intermediate water ^(14)C, and regional warming. We also re-evaluate deglacial changes in North Pacific productivity and carbonate preservation in light of our new data and suggest that the regional pulse of export production observed during the Bolling-Allerod is promoted by relatively stratified conditions, with increased light availability and a shallow, potent nutricline. Overall, our work highlights the potential of NPDW formation to play a significant and hitherto unrealized role in deglacial climate change and CO_2 rise.

CO2 radiative forcing and Intertropical Convergence Zone influences on western Pacific warm pool climate over the past 400 ka

The western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) is an important heat source for the atmospheric circulation and influences climate conditions worldwide. Estimating WPWP sensitivity to past radiative forcing perturbations is important for understanding the magnitudes and patterns of current and projected tropical climate change. Here we present a new Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction over the past 400ka from the Bismarck Sea, off Papua New Guinea, along with benthic foraminiferal δ18O records and a transient intermediate complexity earth system model simulation. The Mg/Ca-SST record exhibits a close similarity with atmospheric CO2 content for the whole study period. Our model analysis demonstrates that greenhouse gas forcing is the primary driver for glacial/interglacial SST changes in the entire WPWP region. Mg/Ca-SST in the Bismarck Sea also includes a weaker precessional component, which covaries with reconstructed and simulated local precipitation, and simulated surface currents. We propose that orbitally driven latitudinal shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and oceanic heat advection are responsible for this residual SST variability. On glacial timescales the reconstructed WPWP surface temperature changes over the past 400ka are highly correlated with East Antarctic air temperature variations. The strong effect of greenhouse gas forcings on both records and on global mean temperature variability allows us to determine a scaling factor of 1–1.5 between reconstructed WPWP temperature anomalies and estimates of the global mean temperature.

Hindcasting the continuum of Dansgaard–Oeschger variability: mechanisms, patterns and timing

Abstract. Millennial-scale variability associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger events is arguably one of the most puzzling climate phenomena ever discovered in paleoclimate archives. Here, we set out to elucidate the underlying dynamics by conducting a transient global hindcast simulation with a 3-D intermediate complexity earth system model covering the period 50 to 30 ka BP. The model is forced by time-varying external boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet orography and albedo) and anomalous North Atlantic freshwater fluxes, which mimic the effects of changing northern hemispheric ice volume on millennial timescales. Together these forcings generate a realistic global climate trajectory, as demonstrated by an extensive model/paleo data comparison. Our results are consistent with the idea that variations in ice-sheet calving and subsequent changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation were the main drivers for the continuum of glacial millennial-scale variability seen in paleorecords across the globe.

Is the climate response to CO2 emissions path dependent?

Recent studies with coupled climate‐carbon cycle models suggest that global mean temperature change is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, independent of the timing of those emissions. This finding has prompted the suggestion that climate stabilization targets, such as the 2°C target adopted by the Copenhagen Accord, can be expressed in terms of cumulative CO2 emissions. Here we examine the simulated response of a range of global and regional climate variables to the same cumulative CO2 emissions (2500 PgC) released along different pathways using a complex Earth system model. We find that the response of most surface climate variables is largely independent of the emissions pathway once emissions cease, with the exception of variables with response timescales of centuries, such as ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level rise. Peak responses of many climate variables, such as global mean temperature, precipitation and sea ice, are also largely independent of the emissions pathway, except for scenarios with cumulative emissions overshoot which require net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. By contrast, peak responses of atmospheric CO2 and surface ocean pH are found to be dependent on the emissions pathway. We conclude that a CO2mitigation framework based on cumulative emissions is well suited for limiting changes in many impact‐relevant climate variables, but is less effective in avoiding impacts directly associated with atmospheric CO2, whose peak response is dependent on the rate of emissions.

Plant-driven variation in decomposition rates improves projections of global litter stock distribution

Abstract. Plant litter stocks are critical, regionally for their role in fueling fire regimes and controlling soil fertility, and globally through their feedback to atmospheric CO2 and climate. Here we employ two global databases linking plant functional types to decomposition rates of wood and leaf litter (Cornwell et al., 2008; Weedon et al., 2009) to improve future projections of climate and carbon cycle using an intermediate complexity Earth System model. Implementing separate wood and leaf litter decomposabilities and their temperature sensitivities for a range of plant functional types yielded a more realistic distribution of litter stocks in all present biomes with the exception of boreal forests and projects a strong increase in global litter stocks by 35 Gt C and a concomitant small decrease in atmospheric CO2 by 3 ppm by the end of this century. Despite a relatively strong increase in litter stocks, the modified parameterization results in less elevated wildfire emissions because of a litter redistribution towards more humid regions.

The evaluation of Earth System Models: discussion summary

Complex Earth system models, and their various sub-components, are not yet subject to rigorous evaluation against observations as much as they should be, despite the existence of hundreds of proposed diagnostics. A concerted process is urgently needed to make this the norm, not the exception. Earth Observation, field observations and palaeo data can be applied to contexts as diverse as wildfire, marine ecosystems, the land carbon cycle, and greenhouse gases. Model evaluation (by comparing models and benchmark data) and model weighting (defining the ‘quality’ of models on the basis of such a comparison) should be considered as separate issues. Systematic approaches to parameter optimization, such as the adjoint technique, allow structural differences between models to be identified and limitations to be addressed. Such methods are established in atmospheric tracer transport and carbon cycling; research carried out in the QUEST programme has demonstrated their applicability for climate modelling. Although it is impossible to devise a foolproof metric for the ability of models to predict the future, relevant metrics could be based on their ability to simulate the past. Furthermore, it should be possible to extend parameter optimization techniques to assimilate data from the past. There are limits to what can be achieved by benchmarking against a mean state, when it is a change in state that is of greatest interest. It is useful to benchmark individual processes rather than aggregate properties. Coupling good components does not automatically result in a good Earth System model, so for complex models, a two-stage process is needed: first, benchmarking the components in stand-alone mode, and second, using the same benchmarks in coupled mode.

Can we trust empirical marine DMS parameterisations within projections of future climate?

Abstract. Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is a globally important aerosol precurser. In 1987 Charlson and others proposed that an increase in DMS production by certain phytoplankton species in response to a warming climate could stimulate increased aerosol formation, increasing the lower-atmosphere's albedo, and promoting cooling. Despite two decades of research, the global significance of this negative climate feedback remains contentious. It is therefore imperative that schemes are developed and tested, which allow for the realistic incorporation of phytoplankton DMS production into Earth System models. Using these models we can investigate the DMS-climate feedback and reduce uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate. Here we examine two empirical DMS parameterisations within the context of an Earth System model and find them to perform marginally better than the standard DMS climatology at predicting observations from an independent global dataset. We then question whether parameterisations based on our present understanding of DMS production by phytoplankton, and simple enough to incorporate into global climate models, can be shown to enhance the future predictive capacity of those models. This is an important question to ask now, as results from increasingly complex Earth System models lead us into the 5th assessment of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Comparing observed and predicted inter-annual variability, we suggest that future climate projections may underestimate the magnitude of surface ocean DMS change. Unfortunately this conclusion relies on a relatively small dataset, in which observed inter-annual variability may be exaggerated by biases in sample collection. We therefore encourage the observational community to make repeat measurements of sea-surface DMS concentrations an important focus, and highlight areas of apparent high inter-annual variability where sampling might be carried out. Finally, we assess future projections from two similarly valid empirical DMS schemes, and demonstrate contrasting results. We therefore conclude that the use of empirical DMS parameterisations within simulations of future climate should be undertaken only with careful appreciation of the caveats discussed.

Bergen Earth system model (BCM-C): model description and regional climate-carbon cycle feedbacks assessment

Abstract. We developed a complex Earth system model by coupling terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle components into the Bergen Climate Model. For this study, we have generated two model simulations (one with climate change inclusions and the other without) to study the large scale climate and carbon cycle variability as well as its feedback for the period 1850–2100. The simulations are performed based on historical and future IPCC CO2 emission scenarios. Globally, a pronounced positive climate-carbon cycle feedback is simulated by the terrestrial carbon cycle model, but smaller signals are shown by the oceanic counterpart. Over land, the regional climate-carbon cycle feedback is highlighted by increased soil respiration, which exceeds the enhanced production due to the atmospheric CO2 fertilization effect, in the equatorial and northern hemisphere mid-latitude regions. For the ocean, our analysis indicates that there are substantial temporal and spatial variations in climate impact on the air-sea CO2 fluxes. This implies feedback mechanisms act inhomogeneously in different ocean regions. In the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, the simulated future cooling of SST improves the CO2 gas solubility in seawater and, hence, reduces the strength of positive climate carbon cycle feedback in this region. In most ocean regions, the changes in the Revelle factor is dominated by changes in surface pCO2, and not by the warming of SST. Therefore, the solubility-associated positive feedback is more prominent than the buffer capacity feedback. In our climate change simulation, the retreat of Southern Ocean sea ice due to melting allows an additional ~20 Pg C uptake as compared to the simulation without climate change.

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.

Long-term effects of biogeophysical and biogeochemical interactions between terrestrial biosphere and climate under anthropogenic climate change

A complex earth system model, simulating atmosphere and ocean dynamics, marine biogeochemistry, terrestrial vegetation and ice sheets, was used to study feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and climate with a set of long-term climate change ensemble experiments. CO 2 emissions were assigned according to historical data and the IPCC SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2, followed by an exponential decay of the emissions for the period 2100–3000. The experiments give a reasonable reconstruction of the measured CO 2 concentrations between 1750 and 2000. Maximum atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 520 ppm (B1), 860 ppm (A1B) and 1680 ppm (A2) were reached between 2200 and 2500. Additional experiments were performed with CO 2 emissions and suppressed climate change, as well as an experiment with a prescribed land surface. The experiments were repeated with the vegetation model driven offline, to investigate the effects of climate and CO 2 changes separately. The biogeochemical and biogeophysical interactions between terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere were quantified and compared. A decrease of albedo at high latitudes was the most important biogeophysical change. For the A2 scenario experiment, it causes an additional temperature increase of 1 to 2 K for some high latitude regions by the year 3000, but the changes are minor compared to the heating due to CO 2 increase. The terrestrial biosphere takes up between 15 and 30% of the CO 2 emissions, depending on the scenario and the period considered. The carbon is stored in the tropics and subtropics, where carbon is stored fast, and in the high latitudes, where carbon storage, partly due to forest expansion, is much slower. By the year 3000, the storage of terrestrial carbon results in a decrease of atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 400 ppm, which in turn decreases the global temperature increase by 0.4 K.

Parameter uncertainties in the modelling of vegetation dynamics—Effects on tree community structure and ecosystem functioning in European forest biomes

Dynamic vegetation models are useful tools for analysing terrestrial ecosystem processes and their interactions with climate through variations in carbon and water exchange. Long-term changes in structure and composition (vegetation dynamics) caused by altered competitive strength between plant functional types (PFTs) are attracting increasing attention as controls on ecosystem functioning and potential feedbacks to climate. Imperfect process knowledge and limited observational data restrict the possibility to parameterise these processes adequately and potentially contribute to uncertainty in model results. This study addresses uncertainty among parameters scaling vegetation dynamic processes in a process-based ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, designed for regional-scale studies, with the objective to assess the extent to which this uncertainty propagates to additional uncertainty in the tree community structure (in terms of the tree functional types present and their relative abundance) and thus to ecosystem functioning (carbon storage and fluxes). The results clearly indicate that the uncertainties in parameterisation can lead to a shift in competitive balance, most strikingly among deciduous tree PFTs, with dominance of either shade-tolerant or shade-intolerant PFTs being possible, depending on the choice of plausible parameter values. Despite this uncertainty, our results indicate that the resulting effect on ecosystem functioning is low. Since the vegetation dynamics in LPJ-GUESS are representative for the more complex Earth system models now being applied within ecosystem and climate research, we assume that our findings will be of general relevance. We suggest that, in terms of carbon storage and fluxes, the heavier parameterisation requirement of the processes involved does not widen the overall uncertainty in model predictions.

Long-term ice sheet–climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model

Several multi-century and multi-millennia simulations have been performed with a complex Earth System Model (ESM) for different anthropogenic climate change scenarios in order to study the long-term evolution of sea level and the impact of ice sheet changes on the climate system. The core of the ESM is a coupled coarse-resolution Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). Ocean biogeochemistry, land vegetation and ice sheets are included as components of the ESM. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) decays in all simulations, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes negatively to sea level rise, due to enhanced storage of water caused by larger snowfall rates. Freshwater flux increases from Greenland are one order of magnitude smaller than total freshwater flux increases into the North Atlantic basin (the sum of the contribution from changes in precipitation, evaporation, run-off and Greenland meltwater) and do not play an important role in changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC). The regional climate change associated with weakening/collapse of the NAMOC drastically reduces the decay rate of the GrIS. The dynamical changes due to GrIS topography modification driven by mass balance changes act first as a negative feedback for the decay of the ice sheet, but accelerate the decay at a later stage. The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet.

Sedimentary response to Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum carbon release: A model-data comparison

Possible sources of carbon that may have caused global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary are constrained using an intermediate complexity Earth-system model confi gured with early Eocene paleogeography. We fi that 6800 Pg C (δ 13 C of -22‰) is the smallest pulse modeled here to reasonably reproduce observations of the extent of seafl oor CaCO 3 dis- solution. This pulse could not have been solely the result of methane hydrate destabilization, suggesting that additional sources of CO 2 such as volcanic CO 2 , the oxidation of sedimentary organic carbon, or thermogenic methane must also have contributed. Observed contrasts in dissolution intensity between Atlantic and Pacifi c sites are reproduced in the model by reduc- ing bioturbation in the Atlantic during the event, simulating a potential consequence of the spread of low-oxygen bottom waters.

Changes in the hydrological cycle, ocean circulation, and carbon/nutrient cycling during the last interglacial and glacial transition

A complex Earth system model has been forced by insolation changes for the last interglacial (LIG) for which geological records evidence a climate cooling that culminated in the last glacial inception. During an early warm period (127–125 ka B.P.) the Arctic/North Atlantic drainage basin north of 30°N receives ∼27,000 m3/s more fresh water mainly imported across the watershed of North America compared to a cooler period centered around 115 ka B.P. Together with a strong surface warming by up to 2 K, this results in a weaker North Atlantic overturning (reduced by ∼20%). Sea ice cover is reduced by 3 × 106 km2 in the Northern Hemisphere, stimulating a stronger productivity in the Barents and Kara seas. In the North Pacific a lowered salinity and a surface warming of more than 3 K increase the stratification. The eastern Pacific becomes nutrient poorer, which leads to a reduction in the export production in areas with vigorous upwelling. The climate cooling in the course of the LIG induces a carbon release by the terrestrial biosphere of 308 Gt, which is counteracted by an oceanic/sedimentary uptake of 290 Gt. The rest remains in the atmosphere increasing the pCO2 by 9 ppm. The large oceanic CO2 uptake corresponds to a rise of the calcite lysocline of about 300 m in the midlatitude Atlantic. The chemically interactive carbonate sediment pool in the Atlantic is reduced by 10%. For nearly the entire North Atlantic, our results are contradictory to the common interpretation of carbonate preservation proxies as a reliable tool for monitoring changes in deep water circulation.

Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO2 concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations before.