Complementary Hypothesis Research Articles

International migration and the advent of a new demographic era

AbstractThe paper explores whether international migration is linked to currently decreasing levels of fertility in high birth rates countries, thereby to the advent of a stage of population degrowth at the world's level. Methodology is in two steps. First, a global dataset is assembled comprising 13 variables for each country. For the country itself: emigrant stock, total fertility rate, girls' enrolment rate, women's labour force participation, global gender gap, and income per capita; for a fictitious average region of destination of migrants originating from this specific country, the last six variables. In the second step, links between origin and destination countries in terms of fertility levels and determinants are analysed using bivariate correlations. A remarkable fact emerges, namely national levels of fertility and their determinants vary quasi perfectly parallel at both ends of international migration corridors. Fertility at origin is not correlated to any phenomenon as much as to fertility, girls' school enrolment and gender equity at destination. Three complementary hypotheses explaining this apparently puzzling fact are discussed: transmission of norms by migrants; cultural similarities at both ends of migrant corridors; and congruency between the global diffusion of norms and the global migration of people. The conclusion highlights the original contribution of the paper, both to the demographic discipline (migration should also be dealt with as a remote determinant of fertility) and political debates on migration (erecting barriers to migration works against the preservation of earth).

Regulatory impact of informality on gasoline consumption efficiency in Africa: A proposed two-part complementary hypothesis test

This study provides new evidence for the regulatory impact of informality on gasoline efficiency in Africa. I propose a Two-Part Complementary Hypothesis (hereafter referred to as the TPCH test), advocating a differential approach to promoting gasoline efficiency: (1) an inverted U-shaped relationship between informality and gasoline inefficiency, and (2) a U-shaped relationship between government regulation and informality, with a significant level effect. The findings indicate an inverted U-shaped effect of informality on gasoline efficiency and a level-negative effect of regulation on informality. These results suggest a differential strategy for enhancing gasoline efficiency. Government regulation is more effective in economies at the pre-saturation stage (characterized by normal growth levels of informality) but proves ineffective in economies at the post-saturation stage (characterized by abnormal growth levels of informality), where energy-saving behaviors may be self-motivated. This is corroborated by the inefficiency equation, where indicators of good governance, such as the rule of law, control of corruption, and regulatory quality, are statistically significant in advancing energy efficiency goals. Gasoline efficiency performance varies across countries, with the higher performers also being the continent's most economically advanced. However, these estimates risk downward bias if outliers or unobserved/observed heterogeneity are not considered.

Reexamining the causes of age patterns in Black-White birth weight disparities: Evidence from U.S. cohorts

Black-White disparities in low birth weight (LBW) rise with maternal age. Why? The “weathering hypothesis” holds that the increasing disparity is due to the accumulation of adverse exposures leading to accelerated aging among Black compared to White mothers. Using US birth certificate data covering millions of births to successive cohorts of US women, this paper finds two sets of results that complicate this theory. Descriptively, I find that Black-White LBW disparities increase with age for some cohorts but not others. More causally, analyses exploiting a plausibly exogenous policy shock show that the effects of reducing adverse exposures were larger for older compared to younger mothers. This evidence points toward an alternative or complementary hypothesis: that LBW risks are more responsive to adverse exposures at older maternal ages than at younger ages. Emphasizing this pathway -- what I call “responsiveness” -- as opposed to accumulation has important implications for both research and policy.

The complementary dominance hypothesis: a model for remediating the 'good' hand in stroke survivors.

The complementary dominance hypothesis is a novel model of motor lateralization substantiated by decades of research examining interlimb differences in the control of upper extremity movements in neurotypical adults and hemisphere-specific motor deficits in stroke survivors. In contrast to earlier ideas that attribute handedness to the specialization of one hemisphere, our model proposes complementary motor control specializations in each hemisphere. The dominant hemisphere mediates optimal control of limb dynamics as required for smooth and efficient movements, whereas the non-dominant hemisphere mediates impedance control, important for countering unexpected mechanical conditions and achieving steady-state limb positions. Importantly, this model proposes that each hemisphere contributes its specialization to both arms (though with greater influence from either arm's contralateral hemisphere) and thus predicts that lesions to one hemisphere should produce hemisphere-specific motor deficits in not only the contralesional arm, but also the ipsilesional arm of stroke survivors - a powerful prediction now supported by a growing body of evidence. Such ipsilesional arm motor deficits vary with contralesional arm impairment, and thus individuals with little to no functional use of the contralesional arm experience both the greatest impairments in the ipsilesional arm, as well as the greatest reliance on it to serve as the main or sole manipulator for activities of daily living. Accordingly, we have proposed and tested a novel intervention that reduces hemisphere-specific ipsilesional arm deficits and thereby improves functional independence in stroke survivors with severe contralesional impairment.

Heterosexual men's reactions to infidelity revisited: Comparing the sex role presentation of extradyadic female partners

AbstractHeterosexual men report less distress at infidelity from female interlopers than male interlopers. In addition to presenting no risk of cuckoldry, men could also perceive these women as additional sexual opportunities if they assume mutual interest from the female interloper. The current study considered this possibility by experimentally manipulating the sex role assumption of a female interloper (either masculine or feminine presentation) for expected sexual interest in men. Heterosexual men reacted to infidelity from hypothetical long‐term romantic partners in two experiments. The extrapair mate was another man, a feminine woman, or a masculine‐presenting woman. Although infidelity elicited an overall negative reaction, men reported less distress when the extradyadic partner was female. The feminine woman was additionally regarded as affording the most sexual opportunity. Effects were particularly amplified when this information included images of the extradyadic partner. Studies provide evidence for complementary hypotheses based on intrasexual conflict and intersexual opportunities.

Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Control Systems: A Study at Itaipu Binacional

Several studies have thus far linked diverse organizational outcomes as antecedents to dynamic capabilities, with an emphasis on entrepreneurship, environmental dynamism, resources, knowledge management, organizational learning, and strategic planning. This study aims to fully assess how the model of strategic levers of control and dynamic capabilities framework are related, considering all conceptual dimensions and the profile of ITAIPU Binacional employees. The data was collected through a survey, and the hypotheses evaluated with the assistance of structural equation modelling, using the partial least squares estimation method. The findings validated the central hypothesis, that the levers of control do positively influence the presence of the dynamic capabilities, in addition to one other complementary hypothesis— that the interactive system also positively influences the ability to sense opportunities. The strategic levers of control can now be treated by organizations as possible sources of dynamic capabilities.

Screen Time and Autism Spectrum Disorder

Contemporary studies raise concerns regarding the implications of excessive screen time on the development of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, the existing literature consists of mixed and unquantified findings. To conduct a systematic review and meta-analyis of the association between screen time and ASD. A search was conducted in the PubMed, PsycNET, and ProQuest Dissertation & Theses Global databases for studies published up to May 1, 2023. The search was conducted independently by 2 authors. Included studies comprised empirical, peer-reviewed articles or dissertations published in English with statistics from which relevant effect sizes could be calculated. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline. Two authors independently coded all titles and abstracts, reviewed full-text articles against the inclusion and exclusion criteria, and resolved all discrepancies by consensus. Effect sizes were transformed into log odds ratios (ORs) and analyzed using a random-effects meta-analysis and mixed-effects meta-regression. Study quality was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. Publication bias was tested via the Egger z test for funnel plot asymmetry. Data analysis was performed in June 2023. The 2 main variables of interest in this study were screen time and ASD. Screen time was defined as hours of screen use per day or per week, and ASD was defined as an ASD clinical diagnosis (yes or no) or ASD symptoms. The meta-regression considered screen type (ie, general use of screens, television, video games, computers, smartphones, and social media), age group (children vs adults or heterogenous age groups), and type of ASD measure (clinical diagnosis vs ASD symptoms). Of the 4682 records identified, 46 studies with a total of 562 131 participants met the inclusion criteria. The studies were observational (5 were longitudinal and 41 were cross-sectional) and included 66 relevant effect sizes. The meta-analysis resulted in a positive summary effect size (log OR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.34 to 0.74]). A trim-and-fill correction for a significant publication bias (Egger z = 2.15; P = .03) resulted in a substantially decreased and nonsignificant effect size (log OR, 0.22 [95% CI, -0.004 to 0.44]). The meta-regression results suggested that the positive summary effect size was only significant in studies targeting general screen use (β [SE] = 0.73 [0.34]; t58 = 2.10; P = .03). This effect size was most dominant in studies of children (log OR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.66 to 1.29]). Interestingly, a negative summary effect size was observed in studies investigating associations between social media and ASD (log OR, -1.24 [95% CI, -1.51 to -0.96]). The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that the proclaimed association between screen use and ASD is not sufficiently supported in the existing literature. Although excessive screen use may pose developmental risks, the mixed findings, the small effect sizes (especially when considering the observed publication bias), and the correlational nature of the available research require further scientific investigation. These findings also do not rule out the complementary hypothesis that children with ASD may prioritize screen activities to avoid social challenges.

Persistent Biofluid Small-Molecule Alterations Induced by Trypanosoma cruzi Infection Are Not Restored by Parasite Elimination.

Chagas disease (CD), caused by Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi) protozoa, is a complicated parasitic illness with inadequate medical measures for diagnosing infection and monitoring treatment success. To address this gap, we analyzed changes in the metabolome of T. cruzi-infected mice via liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry of clinically accessible biofluids: saliva, urine, and plasma. Urine was the most indicative of infection status across mouse and parasite genotypes. Metabolites perturbed by infection in urine include kynurenate, acylcarnitines, and threonylcarbamoyladenosine. Based on these results, we sought to implement urine as a tool for the assessment of CD treatment success. Strikingly, it was found that mice with parasite clearance following benznidazole antiparasitic treatment had an overall urine metabolome comparable to that of mice that failed to clear parasites. These results provide a complementary hypothesis to explain clinical trial data in which benznidazole treatment did not improve patient outcomes in late-stage disease, even in patients with successful parasite clearance. Overall, this study provides insights into new small-molecule-based CD diagnostic methods and a new approach to assess functional responses to treatment.

Normative Modeling of Brain Morphometry in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

The lack of robust neuroanatomical markers of psychosis risk has been traditionally attributed to heterogeneity. A complementary hypothesis is that variation in neuroanatomical measures in individuals at psychosis risk may be nested within the range observed in healthy individuals. To quantify deviations from the normative range of neuroanatomical variation in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) and evaluate their overlap with healthy variation and their association with positive symptoms, cognition, and conversion to a psychotic disorder. This case-control study used clinical-, IQ-, and neuroimaging software (FreeSurfer)-derived regional measures of cortical thickness (CT), cortical surface area (SA), and subcortical volume (SV) from 1340 individuals with CHR-P and 1237 healthy individuals pooled from 29 international sites participating in the Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics Through Meta-analysis (ENIGMA) Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Working Group. Healthy individuals and individuals with CHR-P were matched on age and sex within each recruitment site. Data were analyzed between September 1, 2021, and November 30, 2022. For each regional morphometric measure, deviation scores were computed as z scores indexing the degree of deviation from their normative means from a healthy reference population. Average deviation scores (ADS) were also calculated for regional CT, SA, and SV measures and globally across all measures. Regression analyses quantified the association of deviation scores with clinical severity and cognition, and 2-proportion z tests identified case-control differences in the proportion of individuals with infranormal (z < -1.96) or supranormal (z > 1.96) scores. Among 1340 individuals with CHR-P, 709 (52.91%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 20.75 (4.74) years. Among 1237 healthy individuals, 684 (55.30%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 22.32 (4.95) years. Individuals with CHR-P and healthy individuals overlapped in the distributions of the observed values, regional z scores, and all ADS values. For any given region, the proportion of individuals with CHR-P who had infranormal or supranormal values was low (up to 153 individuals [<11.42%]) and similar to that of healthy individuals (<115 individuals [<9.30%]). Individuals with CHR-P who converted to a psychotic disorder had a higher percentage of infranormal values in temporal regions compared with those who did not convert (7.01% vs 1.38%) and healthy individuals (5.10% vs 0.89%). In the CHR-P group, only the ADS SA was associated with positive symptoms (β = -0.08; 95% CI, -0.13 to -0.02; P = .02 for false discovery rate) and IQ (β = 0.09; 95% CI, 0.02-0.15; P = .02 for false discovery rate). In this case-control study, findings suggest that macroscale neuromorphometric measures may not provide an adequate explanation of psychosis risk.

Cheetah spatiotemporal overlap with other large carnivores and prey at camera-trap sites: do they fit the niche-complementarity hypothesis?

In guilds, such as the large predators, species compete over multiple resources that are both consumable and non-consumable. The niche complementary hypothesis states that competitors can overlap in resource use if there is low overlap for at least one shared resource. In Africa, cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus, compete with other large carnivores across space, time and prey and are known to be subordinate; however, rarely has the entire guild been considered when assessing resource partitioning by cheetah. Using camera-trap data from four areas sampled over 4 years, we compared spatial and temporal overlap between cheetah and other large carnivores. Moreover, we estimated short-term avoidance of sites by cheetah after another large carnivore had visited. We show that cheetah align with the niche complementary hypothesis to avoid other large carnivores. Cheetah experienced high overlap with African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, activity patterns but avoided sites that were used frequently by them. The inverse was observed for lion, Panthera leo, and spotted hyena, Crocuta crocuta, with cheetah avoiding them across time but not space. Cheetah experienced moderate overlap with leopard, Panthera pardus, across both space and time, with only possible short-term avoidance occurring. Finally, cheetah exhibited high levels of spatial and temporal overlap with preferred prey species, suggesting a novel demonstration of the trade-off between resource acquisition and predator avoidance. Our results showcase the importance of taking multiple scales and resource axes into consideration when determining species abilities to co-exist and provides tools for managers working in highly managed systems.

Digital Gender Gap in the Second Half of Life is Declining: Changes in Gendered Internet Use Between 2014 and 2021 in Germany.

The main purpose of the study has been to examine changes in Internet use among men and women in three age groups (mid-life, early old age, and advanced old age) between 2014 and 2021. We tested two hypotheses: The complementary hypothesis posits that online activities reproduce gender differences in offline activities. The compensatory hypothesis posits that women are catching up over time in male-typed activities as Internet access approaches saturation for both genders. We used representative, longitudinal data from the German Ageing Survey (DEAS) collected in 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2021 (n=21,505, age rage 46-90 years). We ran logistic regressions on Internet access and Internet use for four differently gender-typed activities: social contact (female-typed), shopping (gender neutral), entertainment (male-typed), and banking (male-typed). Between 2014 and 2021, women drew level with men in Internet access. Gender differences in all four forms of Internet use declined considerably between 2014 and 2021. Women overtook men in using the Internet for social contact. In older age groups, men held the lead regarding online banking. During the COVID-19 crisis, women caught up to men in Internet use, especially for entertainment. Overall time trends support the complementary hypothesis. By contrast, the finding that women have been catching up in in some male-typed online activities during the COVID-19 pandemic, supports the compensatory hypothesis.

How do researchers choose their goals of inference? A survey experiment on the effects of the state of research and method preferences on the choice between research goals

In empirical research, scholars can choose between an exploratory causes-of-effects analysis, a confirmatory effects-of-causes approach, or a mechanism-of-effects analysis that can be either exploratory or confirmatory. Understanding the choice between the approaches is important for two reasons. First, the added value of each approach depends on how much is known about the phenomenon of interest at the time of the analysis. Second, because of the specializations of methods, there are benefits to a division of labor between researchers who have expertise in the application of a given method. In this preregistered study, we test two hypotheses that follow from these arguments. We theorize that exploratory research is chosen when little is known about a phenomenon and a confirmatory approach is taken when more knowledge is available. A complementary hypothesis is that quantitative researchers opt for confirmatory designs and qualitative researchers for exploration because of their academic socialization. We test the hypotheses with a survey experiment of more than 900 political scientists from the United States and Europe. The results indicate that the state of knowledge has a significant and sizeable effect on the choice of the approach. In contrast, the evidence about the effect of methods expertise is more ambivalent.

Tumoral Densities of T-Cells and Mast Cells Are Associated With Recurrence in Early-Stage Lung Adenocarcinoma

IntroductionLung cancer is the deadliest cancer in the United States and worldwide, and lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is the most prevalent histologic subtype in the United States. LUAD exhibits a wide range of aggressiveness and risk of recurrence, but the biological underpinnings of this behavior are poorly understood. Past studies have focused on the biological characteristics of the tumor itself, but the ability of the immune response to contain tumor growth represents an alternative or complementary hypothesis. Emerging technologies enable us to investigate the spatial distribution of specific cell types within the tumor nest and characterize this immune response. This study aimed to investigate the association between immune cell density within the primary tumor and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in stage I and II LUAD. MethodsThis study is a prospective collection with retrospective evaluation. A total of 100 patients with surgically resected LUAD and at least 5-year follow-ups, including 69 stage I and 31 stages II tumors, were enrolled. Multiplexed immunohistochemistry panels for immune markers were used for measurement. ResultsCox regression models adjusted for sex and EGFR mutation status revealed that the risk of recurrence was reduced by 50% for the unit of one interquartile range (IQR) change in the tumoral T-cell (adjusted hazard ratio per IQR increase = 0.50, 95% confidence interval: 0.27–0.93) and decreased by 64% in mast cell density (adjusted hazard ratio per IQR increase = 0.36, confidence interval: 0.15–0.84). The analyses were reported without the type I error correction for the multiple types of immune cell testing. ConclusionsAnalysis of the density of immune cells within the tumor and surrounding stroma reveals an association between the density of T-cells and RFS and between mast cells and RFS in early-stage LUAD. This preliminary result is a limited study with a small sample size and a lack of an independent validation set.

To say almost the same thing? A study on cross-linguistic variation in ancient texts and their translations

Abstract This article presents a study of several parallel corpora of historical languages and their translations. The aligned corpora are the result of a large crowdsourcing project, named Ugarit, aimed at supporting translation alignment for ancient and historical languages: the study of the resulting translation pairs allows us to observe cross-linguistic dynamics in a range of languages, some of which have never been systematically aligned before. The corpora considered are divided into two distinct groups: English translations of ancient languages, including Greek, Latin, Persian, and Coptic; and translations of ancient Greek into other languages, including Latin, English, Georgian, Italian, and Persian. We evaluated different ratios of word matching across each language pair (one-to-one, one-to-many, many-to-one, and many-to-many), and analyzed the resulting trends across the corpus. We propose some observations on how and why different types of alignment links are established in a given language pair, and what factors affect their creation beyond the control of the user: we propose two complementary hypotheses to explain the changes, one based on structural linguistic factors and the other based on cultural difference.

Chloroplast C-to-U RNA editing in vascular plants is adaptive due to its restorative effect: testing the restorative hypothesis.

The adaptiveness of nonsynonymous RNA editing (recoding) could be conferred by the flexibility of the temporal-spatially controllable proteomic diversity, or by its restorative effect which fixes unfavorable genomic mutations at the RNA level. These two complementary hypotheses, namely, the diversifying hypothesis and the restorative hypothesis, have distinct predictions on the landscape of RNA editing sites. We collected the chloroplast C-to-U RNA editomes of 21 vascular plants (11 angiosperms, four gymnosperms, and six ferns) from a previous study, aiming to testify whether the plant editomes typically conform to the restorative hypothesis. All predictions made by the restorative hypothesis are verified: (i) nonsynonymous editing sites are more frequent and have higher editing levels than synonymous sites; (ii) nonsynonymous editing levels are extremely high and show weak tissue-specificity in plants; (iii) on the inferred genomic sites with recent T-to-C mutations, nonsynonymous sites but not synonymous sites are compensated by C-to-U RNA editing. In conclusion, nonsynonymous C-to-U RNA editing in plants is adaptive due to its restorative effects. The recoding levels are high and are constantly required across the whole plant so that the recoding events could perfectly mimic DNA mutations. The evolutionary significance of plant RNA editing is systematically demonstrated at the genome-wide level.

Strategic Power Europe: A Contradiction in Terms?

As of 2021, the European Union (EU) is now a foundational part of Europe’s defense architecture, with programmes such as PESCO now enabling the EU to organise civil-military responses to crise and coordinate the defense-planning cycles of 25 European countries. This article asks why EU member states have opted to use the EU to enable their capabilities and manage ongoing security crises? In answering this question, the article uses a pluralistic reading, utilising realist and liberal-intergovernmentalist frameworks to assess complementary hypotheses for this cooperation. The second part assesses the state of the international system, concluding its increasing insecurity has prompted a collective awareness that a more strategic response to collective security is necessary. The third part evaluates the role of the political and economic balance of bargaining power between EU member states, assessing Germany, France, and Poland as case studies. The paper concludes briefly on the implications of this cooperation and the need for pluralistic readings of EU defense cooperation.

Non-linear intensification of monsoon low-pressure systems by the BSISO

Abstract. More than half of the rainfall brought to the Indian subcontinent by the summer monsoon is associated with low-pressure systems (LPSs). Yet their relationship with the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) – the dominant intraseasonal forcing on the monsoon – is only superficially understood. Using reanalysis data, we explore the relationship between the BSISO and LPS intensity, propagation and precipitation, and associated underlying mechanisms. The BSISO has a large impact on mean monsoon vorticity and rainfall as it moves northward – maximising both in phases 2–3 over southern India and phases 5–6 over northern India – but a much weaker relationship with total column water vapour. We present evidence that LPS genesis also preferentially follows these phases of the BSISO. We identify significant relationships between BSISO phase and LPS precipitation and propagation: for example, during BSISO phase 5, LPSs over northern India produce 51 % heavier rainfall and propagate northwestward 20 % more quickly. Using a combination of moisture flux linearisation and quasi-geostrophic theory, we show that these relationships are driven by changes to the underlying dynamics rather than the moisture content or thermodynamic structure of the monsoon. Using the example of LPSs over northern India during BSISO phase 5, we show that the vertical structure of anomalous vorticity can be split into contributions from the BSISO background circulation and the non-linear response of the LPS to anomalous BSISO circulation. Complementary hypotheses emerge about the source of this non-linear vorticity response: non-linear frictional convergence and secondary barotropic growth. We show that both are important. The BSISO imparts greater meridional shear on the background state, supporting LPS intensification. The BSISO background and non-linear LPS response both contribute significantly to anomalous boundary layer convergence, and we show through vortex budget arguments that the former supports additional LPS intensification in boundary layer, while the latter supports faster westward propagation. This work therefore yields important insights into the scale interactions controlling one of the dominant synoptic systems contributing to rainfall during the monsoon.

The Effect of Own Body Concerns on Judgments of Other Women's Body Size.

We investigated the relationships between healthy women’s estimates of their own body size, their body dissatisfaction, and how they subjectively judge the transition from normal to overweight in other women’s bodies (the “normal/overweight” boundary). We propose two complementary hypotheses. In the first, participants compare other women to an internalized Western “thin ideal,” whose size reflects the observer’s own body dissatisfaction. As dissatisfaction increases, so the size of their “thin ideal” reduces, predicting an inverse relationship between the “normal/overweight” boundary and participants’ body dissatisfaction. Alternatively, participants judge the size of other women relative to the body size they believe they have. For this implicit or explicit social comparison, the participant selects a “normal/overweight” boundary that minimizes the chance of her making an upward social comparison. So, the “normal/overweight” boundary matches or is larger than her own body size. In an online study of 129 healthy women, we found that both opposing factors explain where women place the “normal/overweight” boundary. Increasing body dissatisfaction leads to slimmer judgments for the position of the “normal/overweight” boundary in the body mass index (BMI) spectrum. Whereas, increasing overestimation by the observer of their own body size shifts the “normal/overweight” boundary toward higher BMIs.

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of a drying Himalayan river

Abstract. Streamflow regimes are rapidly changing in many regions of the world. Attribution of these changes to specific hydrological processes and their underlying climatic and anthropogenic drivers is essential to formulate an effective water policy. Traditional approaches to hydrologic attribution rely on the ability to infer hydrological processes through the development of catchment-scale hydrological models. However, such approaches are challenging to implement in practice due to limitations in using models to accurately associate changes in observed outcomes with corresponding drivers. Here we present an alternative approach that leverages the method of multiple hypotheses to attribute changes in streamflow in the Upper Jhelum watershed, an important tributary headwater region of the Indus basin, where a dramatic decline in streamflow since 2000 has yet to be adequately attributed to its corresponding drivers. We generate and empirically evaluate a series of alternative and complementary hypotheses concerning distinct components of the water balance. This process allows a holistic understanding of watershed-scale processes to be developed, even though the catchment-scale water balance remains open. Using remote sensing and secondary data, we explore changes in climate, surface water, and groundwater. The evidence reveals that climate, rather than land use, had a considerably stronger influence on reductions in streamflow, both through reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Baseflow analyses suggest different mechanisms affecting streamflow decline in upstream and downstream regions, respectively. These findings offer promising avenues for future research in the Upper Jhelum watershed, and an alternative approach to hydrological attribution in data-scarce regions.

Deciphering the Increased Prevalence of TP53 Mutations in Metastatic Prostate Cancer.

The prevalence of TP53 mutations in advanced prostate cancers (PCa) is 3 to 5 times of the quantity in primary PCa. By an integrative analysis of the Cancer Genome Atlas and Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer data, we revealed the supporting evidence for 2 complementary hypotheses: H1 - TP53 abnormalities promote metastasis or therapy-resistance of PCa cells, and H2—part of TP53 mutations in PCa metastases occur after the diagnosis of original cancers. The plausibility of these hypotheses can explain the increased prevalence of TP53 mutations in PCa metastases. With H1 and H2 as the general assumptions, we developed mathematical models to decipher the change of the percentage frequency (prevalence) of TP53 mutations from primary tumors to metastases. The following results were obtained. Compared to TP53-normal patients, TP53-mutated patients had poorer biochemical relapse-free survival, higher Gleason scores, and more advanced t-stages (P < .01). Single-nucleotide variants in metastases more frequently occurred on G bases of the coding sequence than those in primary cancers (P = .03). The profile of TP53 hotspot mutations was significantly different between primary and metastatic PCa as demonstrated in a set of statistical tests (P < .05). By the derived formulae, we estimated that about 40% TP53 mutation records collected from metastases occurred after the diagnosis of the original cancers. Our study provided significant insight into PCa progression. The proposed models can also be applied to decipher the prevalence of mutations on TP53 (or other driver genes) in other cancer types.