During the late 1980s and early 1990s, the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery boomed in southern New England, but starting in the early 2000s lobsters declined in the nearshore regions and the fishery retracted. While previous research has focused on the causes for the declining numbers of adult lobsters in the region as well as lobster settlement, lobster larvae were not sampled in Rhode Island waters. Additionally research was mixed on the origin of lobster larvae found inshore. To examine larval presence in coastal Rhode Island, weekly net tows were conducted at the mouth of Narragansett Bay during summer from 2019 to 2021, and light traps were deployed in 2020 and 2021. Time series segmentation and generalized linear models assessed trends and connections between lobsters caught in trawl surveys, commercial landings data, lobster settlement data, bottom water temperatures, and climate indices. Larval supply to Narragansett Bay is very low and mostly concentrated in the East Passage where ocean water flows into the bay, suggesting that a failure in larval supply from offshore sources is harming local population levels. Time series segmentation and models indicate that declines in lobster settlement followed the decline in adult lobsters in coastal Rhode Island, not Narragansett Bay. Altogether, the data suggest that larval lobster are transported inshore from spawning stock outside the bay. Present circulation patterns combined with the movement of lobsters into deeper waters has made the transport of larvae to Narragansett Bay unlikely.
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