Coastal Farmers Research Articles

Impact of climate-smart agriculture practices on multidimensional poverty among coastal farmers in Bangladesh

Climate-smart agriculture technology helps safeguard crop income from climate change-induced crop loss. Here we identify the factors determining the adoption of climate-smart agriculture and the impact of its adoption on multidimensional poverty among coastal climate-vulnerable farm households. We employ full information maximum likelihood estimation under the endogenous switching regression approach to account for counterfactual scenarios. Results indicate that the decision to adopt climate-smart agriculture is influenced by crop vulnerability, crop income, access to extension service, and training on input management. The current adopters of climate-smart agriculture experience a 41-percentage point reduction in multidimensional poverty compared to if they had not adopted this technique. Likewise, if the current non-adopters adopted climate-smart technology they could reduce poverty by 15 percentage points. Findings also claim that some specific climate-smart technologies are particularly effective in reducing poverty, providing valuable information to coastal farmers in making informed decisions about which technologies may be effective.

Coastal Farmers’ Attitude Towards Climate Smart Agriculture In Bangladesh

Coastal Farmers’ Attitude Towards Climate Smart Agriculture In Bangladesh

Impact of Paddy Varietal Demonstrations in Adoption, Knowledge Gain and Economic Perspective of Tiruvallur District, T.N., India

Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Tiruvallur has been instrumental in conducting frontline demonstrations on high yielding, pest and disease resistant, submergence and salinity tolerant paddy varieties like CO 51, TKM 13, CR 1009 Sub 1 and TRY 3 in order to improve the existing yield level, net returns and also to address the specific environment related issues faced by the farmers. The KVK, Tiruvallur and the Department of Agriculture conducted varietal demonstrations and extension activities resulting in the adoption of CO 51 across 11,580 ha (25.7% of short-duration paddy area) and TKM 13 across 8,915 ha (17.29% of mediumduration paddy area). CO 51 provided an additional income of Rs. 24,935/ha over ADT 43, with a cost saving of Rs. 5,510/ha. While TKM 13 yielded Rs. 25,330/ha more than BPT 5204, with a cost saving of Rs. 8,600/ha. Economic impact realized by way of cultivating CO 51 in an area of 11580 ha and TKM 13 in 8915 ha is 28.87 and 22.58 crores respectively. The introduction of CR 1009 Sub 1 in coastal area has helped farmers realize additional income of Rs.24150/ha over the check variety BPT 5204 and cost saving of Rs.5650/ ha with economic gain of Rs. 72.45 lakhs in 300ha. The introduction of TRY 3 variety has gained popularity among the coastal farmers and cultivated in about 215 ha and earned an economic gain of Rs. 7,33,150 to the farmers apart from addressing problems due to salinity like poor establishment and grain sterility. Cost saving of Rs. 3700/ha and additional net income of Rs.3410 over the check variety BPT 5204 has also been realized. This study clearly indicates the higher economic gains attained by the farmers. The area spread of the popular varieties shows an increasing trend and more area coverage is expected in the coming years. The knowledge gain by the farmers of various blocks of Tiruvallur had significantly improved after intervention where 82-86 per cent farmers had more than 50% knowledge about the high yielding varieties.

What psychological factors lead to the abandonment of cultivated land by coastal farmers? An interpretation based on the psychological distance

For a long time, the research on the cultivated land abandonment behavior of farmers, caused by natural constraints such as coastal ecological environment vulnerability and frequent extreme climates, has received extensive attention. However, few scholars pay attention to the impact of psychological construction of farmers’ environmental risk perception on abandoned farming behavior, especially the use of psychological distance (PD) to quantify this abstract psychological process. Taking Shankou Town, Guangxi, China as an example, this study combines the PD in the field of sociology with the construal level theory to build a PD framework for coastal farmers. A structural equation model was used to explore the influence mechanism of the social, temporal, hypothetical, and spatial distances on farmers’ cultivated land abandonment behavior. We found that coastal land abandonment is affected by social trust and the probability of extreme weather, although the risk preference under the ‘discount rate’ is not significantly affected. At the same time, the closer the spatial distance between the residence and the coastline, the higher the abandonment of cultivated land, although with a different impact. In addition, population mobility and human-sea connection were found to play a mediating role in the effect of psychological distance on cultivated land abandonment. We confirmed that the direction of the effects of the four types of psychological distance on land abandonment behavior is not consistent. This study is helpful to understand the cultivated land abandonment behavior of farmers in coastal zone, and tries to provide reference for coastal zone planting planning.

Assessment of Major Problems Faced by Coastal Farmers of India

The coastal ecosystem is important from both economic and ecological points of view owing to the abundance of natural resources, and diversity and its role in supporting livelihoods. However, coastal agriculture faces multiple challenges such as cyclones, flooding, salinity, seawater intrusion, etc. which affect the production systems and livelihoods of farmers. To identify and rank the problems faced by coastal farmers, we undertook this research study using an online questionnaire with Google-Form and collected responses from 69 respondents covering all the coastal states and Union Territories (UTs) during 2022. The responses were analysed using Garrett’s technique for ranking the reported problems. Our study indicated that the problem of pests & diseases (I), weather-related problems (II) and marketing & prices (III) were the major problems faced by farmers in the agriculture & horticulture sector. While in the animal husbandry & poultry sector, fodder shortage, higher feed cost and lower productivity & profitability were the major problems. In the field of fisheries, shortage of good quality fish seeds (I), lower profitability (II) and lower catch (III) were identified as the major problems.

Common sources and needs of weather information for rice disease forecasting and management in coastal Bangladesh

Rice farmers in coastal Bangladesh are severely affected by climate change. Climate variability and change impact crop production in numerous ways, including by changing occurrences of different rice diseases. Weather and climate information services (WCIS) can assist farmers in improving agricultural decision-making, in relation to rice disease management. Currently, however, farmers in coastal Bangladesh have limited access to accurate, timely, and location-specific information on weather and climate. To design actionable information services, it is important to know the types of information that farmers need. With this in mind, the current research addressed three questions: (i) What types of weather information do coastal farmers need to forecast rice diseases? (ii) What types of weather information are currently available to coastal farmers? (iii) How does weather information play a role in rice disease management-related decision-making? Results indicate that coastal rice farmers have access to weather and climate information services mainly through personal experiences, neighbouring farmers, agricultural extension agents, local knowledge and input dealers. During interviews, farmers indicated that they mainly needed information on temperatures, rainfall, relative humidity, cloud cover, fog and wind information to predict rice disease outbreaks sufficiently in advance. Raising awareness about application of climate information services in rice disease management and building the capacity of farmers through training and education is vital to address major challenges faced by the coastal farmers in accessing weather information. We conclude that the farmers need more accurate, timely, location-specific, trustworthy and actionable weather information services to forecast and manage rice diseases.

From hinterland to heartland: Knowledge and market insecurity are barriers to crop farmers using sustainable soil management in Guyana

In Guyana, the coastal plains dominate agricultural production, while the hinterland is an emerging agricultural frontier. The coastal and hinterland regions have differing agro-climatic conditions, but share immediate climate change and environmental degradation pressures, including soil degradation. Even though climate change adaptation is prioritized over greenhouse gas mitigation in Guyana, soil-focused farming, otherwise known as sustainable soil management (SSM), can provide a system that creates synergies between these two facets of climate-smart agriculture and, also, promotes soil security. This article proposes a bottom-up planning process for SSM in Guyana by assessing its underlying psycho-social and physical facilitators and barriers. The main questions addressed are: what are the attitudes of Guyanese farmers to climate change? What are their capabilities for SSM, in terms of education, technology and government support? In answering these questions, inductive-derived thematic analysis of transcripts derived from in-depth telephone interviews with seventeen (17) farmers, from coastal and hinterland regions, provides an initial basis for ground truthing on the local appropriateness of SSM. Results show that hinterland farmers are more emotive and value-driven about their environment, while coastal farmers, instead, prioritize access to markets and gaining favorable prices for their commodities. Additionally, the lack of education and training are identified as severe limitations to the capabilities of farmers to practice SSM. In conclusion, a weak marketing environment is seen as a binding constraint of sustainable intensification as surplus goods attract low prices. Stronger linkages to dynamic markets, as well as increased investment opportunities are needed for sustainable farming to become economically feasible. Therefore, psychosocial capital must be strengthened before any natural capital is improved under Guyana's various agro-environmental policies.

Resisting-accepting-directing sea level rise on the Chesapeake Bay: Agricultural producers’ motivations and actions

As relative rates of sea level rise accelerate in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, the frequency of flooding and saltwater intrusion on coastal lands also increases, prompting ecological transformation which can conflict with existing coastal land use such as agriculture. We performed an exploratory study of coastal farmers and woodlot managers in Maryland and Virginia to understand how these producers make land management decisions within the context of sea level rise. Specifically, we used a mixed-methods approach to identify and understand 1) the producer-observed impacts of sea level rise and flooding on coastal lands; 2) the range of actions producers may take in response to sea level rise and flooding; 3) producers' intentions for managing their land in the short- and long-term; 4) producers' motivations for selecting a particular response; and 5) the additional support coastal producers need to successfully adapt to sea level rise. We used the Resist-Accept-Direct framework as an analytical tool to understand how producers’ actions and motivations align with 1) prevention or removal of impacts from flooding and saltwater intrusion, 2) accommodation for wetter or saltier conditions as they naturally occur, or 3) facilitation of specific changes toward a new desired outcome. We found that while most producers in our study plan to resist or accept changes over the next five years, over the longer term a majority of participating producers plan to transition land to a use that is compatible with increased saltwater intrusion and flooding. Most producers in our study would prefer to continue farming yet face a lack of effective and/or affordable management options to resist ecological changes. Flexible mechanisms that support producers in resisting sea level rise impacts in the short term, while supporting them in directing the transition of their land to another productive use in the long term, are needed to support coastal farmers as they adapt to a changing climate.

Mapping The Agriculture Land of The Land Farmers in The South Coast of Kulon Progo

The south coast land of Kulon Progo on the beginning was sandy and infertile soil. The land then was converted into agriculture land, chilli farm based on the idea of the agriculture expert, Mr. Karman. This study aimed to map the agriculture land in Bidadara coast, Panjatan district, Kulon Progo because of the the success of the coastal farmers on producing an abundance of chilli harvest. The method used was interviews and field observation. The deviced used for mapping was DJI Mavic 2 Pro multicopter drone operated approximately for 20 minutes. The result of this study was aerial photos of drone shots with a height of 20 meters, 30 meters, and 50 meters above ground level onto the soil conditions adjacent to Bidara Beach, Panjatan, Kulon Progo. It was seen that the stretch of coastal land was planted with coconut trees and chilies. Hence, no wonder that the coastal land farmers are rich because of fantastic income from the farm. It is proven that the cultivation of this chili plant can improve the economy of the farming community on the South Coast of Kulon Progo.

Assessing Adverse Impacts of Aquaculture Activities on Groundwater Quality in Ponneri Taluk of Tiruvallur District, Tamilnadu using Drinking Water Quality Index

Tamilnadu is a State that is deprived of perennial water sources like major rivers and streams. Agricultural activities in Tamilnadu are mainly dependent on seasonal rainfall and ground water. The shortages of water resources drive many coastal farmers to convert their fertile agricultural lands to aquaculture. Groundwater suitability for human consumption is determined by its physical, chemical and bacteriological properties. Irrational conversion of agricultural lands to aquaculture is found to be unsustainable leading to wastage of sparse natural resource fertile land and groundwater. The aquaculture practices started very extensively since year 2012 where fertile agriculture land, land with scrub and wasteland area have been converted for the aquaculture ponds. The use of temporal remote sensing helps in understanding the patterns of land use conversion from agricultural practice to aquaculture. In addition, indiscriminate use of fertilizers and chemicals in aquaculture farming has led to soil salinization and ground water pollution in many parts of study area. Use of salinity indices was tried in identification of salinity levels in lands in and around the current and abandoned aquaculture ponds. The study indicates that the use of Remote Sensing and GIS has helped in identification of landuse conversion and its adverse effects on characteristics of land due to extensive aquaculture activities in Ponneri Taluk of Tamilnadu. Using satellite data of Landsat OLI 8 (2015), IRS LISS IV, Sentinel II 2017, the changes have been estimated. The water quality parameters include pH, TDS, cations such as Ca, Mg, Na and K, anions such as Cl, SO4, HCO3, NO3 and PO4. Surface and groundwater quality results are cross-checked at the field areas which clearly indicate that almost entire Ponneri Taluk groundwater is unsuitable for drinking purposes. The classification for drinking water is obtained by DWQI. The piper plot has been studied by the geochemistry methods.

Changes in coastal farming systems in a changing climate in Bangladesh

Changes in farming systems are dominated by changes in global climate and local environment, apart from the non-climatic drivers. Given the challenges in partitioning the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in farming systems, this paper aims to assess the types and changes of coastal farming systems, the farmer perceptions of the causes of the changes in farming systems, and the relationship between the influencing factors and perceptions. A structured interview schedule was used to collect data from 381 randomly selected coastal households during September–October 2018. The random forest classification model was applied to estimate the relative importance of the farmers’ characteristics on their perception of causes of changes in farming systems. This study reveals that the coastal farmers had mostly semi-subsistence type of mixed farming systems, which were going through dynamic changes in terms of their sizes and number of farmers. In general, the participation in rice, vegetables, and livestock farming was decreasing but increasing in fisheries, forestry, and fruit farming. Most (95.5%) of the farmers had to change at least one of the farming enterprises over the past decade (2009–2018) compared with the previous decade (1999–2008). About two-thirds of the farmers perceived that climate change had caused changes in their farming systems. Compared with the eastern coasts, the farmers in the western coasts tended to blame climate change to a higher extent for the effect on their agricultural activities. The random forest model outputs imply that the farmers who are younger in age and with less formal education, larger family, and smaller farmland should be supported with scientific knowledge on causes of changes in farming systems. This could help them more aware of climate change issues related to agriculture and increase their enthusiasm to take part in adaptive changes in farming systems.

What are the impacts of livelihood capital and distance effect on farmers' willingness to pay for coastal zone ecological protection? Empirical analysis from the Beibu Gulf of China

Coastal farmers earn their living by the sea, and their willingness to pay (WTP) is particularly important for coastal zone ecological protection (CZEP). What are the specific impacts of livelihood capital and distance effect on farmers' WTP for CZEP? And what are the impact paths of these effects? To answer these questions, taking the coastal zone of the Beibu Gulf of China as an example, this paper constructs an index system based on sustainable livelihood theory, carries out research and design combined with the contingent valuation method (CVM), and conducts an empirical study on the relationship between livelihood capital, distance effect and WTP for ecological protection with the help of the entropy method, ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression model and bootstrap method. The results show that (1) only 56.23% of the respondents have a WTP for CZEP, while 43.77% of the respondents refuse to pay. (2) The scores of each dimension of farmers' livelihood capital are as follows: risk perception (0.635) > natural capital (0.531) > financial capital (0.406) > human capital (0.299) > social capital (0.130) > physical capital (0.110), and farmers' livelihood capital and distance effect have an inverted U-shaped relationship with the WTP for ecological protection. (3) The ecological protection payments of pure farmers, type 1 farmers, type 2 farmers and nonfarmers were 151.83, 112.73, 78.87 and 95.58 RMB/year, respectively, and the influencing factors are heterogeneous. (4) We found that the mediating effects of natural capital, physical capital and financial capital are negative, social capital and risk perception are positive, while the mediating effects of human capital are not significant. Therefore, the government should establish a comprehensive management system that is cross-regional, cross-departmental, coordinated, systematic and efficient across the coastal zone.

ANALISIS KONTRIBUSI MASYARAKAT PETANI PESISIR TERHADAP KETAHANAN PANGAN RUMAH TANGGA DI ERA ADAPTASI KEBIASAAN BARU (Studi Kasus di Desa Jarangan, Kec. Rejoso, Kab. Pasuruan)

This study aims to describe the agribusiness management of coastal farming communities, identify the contribution of male and female farmers and analyze coastal farming businesses in order to help maintain regional food security. The results of the study show that pond agribusiness management is carried out traditionally in the saprodi and production subsystems. The contribution of coastal farmers to household resilience is dominated by male farmers in pond management with a percentage of 74% and female farmers 36%. Coastal farmers who work on ponds are able to meet their daily food needs. Sourced from the results of milkfish farming and wild shrimp fishing. The income obtained from these results of Rp. 6,295,712 per season or Rp. 2,098,570 per month can meet their other basic needs every month in this New Habit Adaptation Era.

PROGRAM PEMBENTUKAN DAN PENINGKATAN KAPASITAS PETANI PESISIR DOMPAK LAUT SEBAGAI PEMBERDAYAAN MASYARAKAT PESISIR

Indonesia as a maritime country has many coastal community groups. But unfortunately, the various efforts to develop the blue economy have not been able to improve the welfare of these community groups. Most of them choose to depend on the fisheries and tourism sectors, even though Indonesia's marine potential is vast and there is much that can still be developed. Coastal communities are not aware of the climate crisis that is getting worse and can threaten the security of the environment where they live. Based on this, the CarbonEthics Foundation seeks to be a solution by prioritizing training and education to save the earth while empowering coastal communities. This study further examines one of its newest programs, namely the Capacity Building and Capacity Building Program for the Dompak Laut Coastal Farmers group. The research was conducted with a qualitative approach and descriptive method with data collection in the form of in-depth interviews and literature studies. The results of the study found that this program not only provides technical training but also education to increase awareness regarding marine natural conditions, as well as assistance and supervision which is planned to be carried out for three years. Part of the implementation and planning of this program is in accordance with the theory of stages of empowerment. The stage of formulating the action plan was not appropriate because the CarbonEthics Foundation formulated and determined programs and activities without the participation of the community or program participants. However, this stage is a cyclical process. In addition, in less than half a year, program participants have benefited from their new abilities by getting an 83% increase in income. This finding supports the foundation program as an empowerment effort. With a program like this, coastal communities will then become more empowered and able to compete with their new capabilities.

Otonomi Kolektif dan Operasionalisasi Kesadaran Publik dalam Gerakan Solidaritas Pangan Jogja (SPJ)

The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the pattern of interaction and socialization of community members. One of them is an effort to build awareness and social solidarity to help each other, especially in the dimension of domestic needs, such as food fulfillment. The Jogja Food Solidarity Movement (Solidaritas Pangan Jogja/SPJ) represents a collective action that grew because of the awareness of individuals and groups to distribute food aid to informal workers and marginalized groups in Yogyakarta. This paper examines two main points; first, how SPJ manages its social network pattern during the Covid-19 pandemic. Second, why the SPJ movement is autonomous. Using a qualitative approach and case study method, this paper finds that the SPJ movement maximizes social capital through networks and social support from non-governmental institutions, activist groups, artists, students, and the Kulon Progo Coastal Farmers Association (Paguyuban Petani Lahan Pantai/PPLP) to distribute food. to the public. The SPJ movement is formed organically, autonomously and rationally, which is a manifestation of systematically organized collective action. Through the analysis of the Resource Mobilization Theory (Teori Mobilisasi Sumber Daya/TMSD), the SPJ movement is needed to create and show collective dissatisfaction, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, namely without which dissatisfaction is only at the individual level.

Growth performance and cost-benefit analysis of brackishwater fin fishes (Mugil cephalus and Rhinomugil corsula) with prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) in polyculture at coastal ponds

The study was carried out to observe growth, production and profit of prawn, stripped mullet (Mugil cephalus) and corsula mullet (Rhinomugil corsula) at different stocking ratio under polyculture in the Bagerhat district for four months. The experiment was designed as a randomized block design and had three treatments based on stocking ratio with three replicates in each treatment. Juveniles of prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) and fingerlings of fin fishes (stripped mullet and corsula mullet) were stocked at a stocking ratio of 3:1:1, 4:1:1 and 5:1:1/m2 in T1, T2 and T3, respectively. Prawn and fin fishes were fed with a commercial diet and farm made formulated feed on a daily basis. Recorded water quality parameters were within suitable ranges of prawn and fish culture. Higher growth (43.0 g) of the prawn was achieved in T1 followed by T2 (41.0 g) and T3 (38.0 g), but prawn growth was not significantly different between T1 and T2. The growth and survival rate of prawn, stripped mullet and corsula mullet were lower in T3, where the stocking ratio was higher. Higher production of the prawn was obtained in T2 (1148.0 kg/ha) than those of T1 (954.6 kg/ha) and T3 (1083.0 kg/ha). But significantly (p<0.05), higher production of stripped mullet was found in T1 (650.0 kg/ha) and T2 (579.5 kg/ha) than T3 (500.5 kg/ha). Similarly, higher production of corsula mullet was found in T1 (850.0 kg/ha) and T2 (834.9 kg/ha) than T3 (719.8 kg/ha). However, combined production and net profit of prawn and fin fish farming were significantly (p<0.05) higher in T2 (2562.4 kg/ha, BDT 277,384.51/ha) followed by T3 (2303.3 kg/ha, BDT 229,693.95/ha) and T1 (2454.6 kg/ha, BDT 179,393.31/ha). So from a production and economic point of view, polyculture of prawn and fin fish at a stocking ratio of 4:1:1/m2 is more profitable compared to other stocking ratios and this system may be suggested to disseminate at coastal farmers’ level.
 J. Asiat. Soc. Bangladesh, Sci. 47(1): 67-78, June 2021

Итоги и перспективы развития прибрежного рыболовства в Западной Арктике России

The results of the functioning of the Association of coastal fishermen and farmers. The social significance of the Association is shown. The possibilities for the development of the organization members' activities are explored. Measures to increase the social significance of coastal fishery are given.

What Are the Impacts of a Coastal Zone Protection Policy on Farmers’ Livelihood Capital? Empirical Analysis From the Perspective of Farmer Participation

To restore and protect the ecosystem service function of coastal zones, some farmers have changed their certain original production methods and lifestyles and some have even relinquished a portion of the economic benefits that could be obtained directly. What impacts do the coastal zone ecological protection policies bring to the livelihoods of coastal farmers? The strict coastline protection of Beibu Gulf, Hepu County, Beihai City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, is taken as an example. Combined with the sustainable livelihood framework (SLF), this paper set up an evaluation index system for the livelihood capital of farmers in the Beibu Gulf coastal zone, obtaining 568 valid questionnaires through a field survey, and use the propensity score matching and difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method to study the impacts of a coastal ecological protection policy on the livelihood capital of coastal farmers from the perspective of farmer participation. The results show that (1) the coastal ecological protection policy had a significant impact on the natural capital and social capital of coastal farmers that actively participated in coastal ecological protection, which increased by 0.181 and 0.052, respectively. (2) However, it did not have a significant impact on the total livelihood capital, human capital, physical capital or financial capital. Therefore, this paper presents policy suggestions for constructing coastal ecological compensation mechanisms and for promoting active participation by coastal farmers in coastal ecological protection efforts.

Characteristics of Coastal Farmers in Kulon Progo Regency

The study explored the characteristics of coastal farmers in Kulon Progo Regency. It emphasized the issues of the socio-economical arrangements of farmers in marginal and resource-poor area and the access of farmers to productive capital. The research will contribute to development practitioners and policymakers in prescribing the context-specific policies and programs. In doing so, the research aimed at exploring the characteristics of coastal farmers in aspects like age, educational level, farming experiences and monthly income, as well as uncover their access to productive capital. The data came from a survey carried out using a questionnaire-based field interview, which adopted and used a simple random sampling method to select 60 respondents. The result of this research showed that the average age of coastal farmers is 43.2 years. In majority, farmers went to school for 10-12 years or were graduated from high school. Besides, 86.53% of the farmers had more than 10-year experience, which indicated that farming in coastal areas was profitable. The average monthly income of coastal farmers was 6 million rupiahs during peak season. Chili, the most profitable crop, contributed as the primary source of income, mostly when the selling price was high. Access to land, livestock, transportation (motorbike), extension services, internet and informal institution were considered high and very high, while access to four-wheeled transportation, credit and formal institution (farmers’ group) were medium and low.

Exploring the differences between coastal farmers’ subjective and objective risk preferences in China using an agent-based model

Around the world, farming decision-making has been receiving increasing attention from the academic circles, while there is currently an important research gap regarding coastal farmers' farming decision-making. Natural disasters occur frequently in coastal zones. Farmers, as a rational agent, inevitably have heterogeneous risk preferences. However, few studies have distinguished between subjective and objective risk preferences, and have analyzed the influence of these differences on the final results. In this paper, the Shankou Town in the Hepu County, Beihai City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China was selected as a typical coastal zone research area. The aim of this study was to analyze subjective and objective risk preferences, build a multi-agent model, and simulate farmers' real farming decision-making. By providing targeted policy recommendations, we believe that our research can contribute to reducing land abandonment. In fact, a wrong perception of the risk preferences may lead to differences in the prediction of future land abandonment. In many cases, farmers do not understand the risk-taking behavior. Therefore, through this method, the severity of land abandonment can be predicted in advance. so that the government can take the necessary measures to prevent and control it, and raise the willingness of farmers for land reconversion.