Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

Remote sensing-driven machine learning models for spatiotemporal analysis of coastal phytoplankton blooms under climate change scenarios

Remote sensing-driven machine learning models for spatiotemporal analysis of coastal phytoplankton blooms under climate change scenarios

Forecasting the risk of Phytophthora cinnamomi related-decline in Mediterranean forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios

Forecasting the risk of Phytophthora cinnamomi related-decline in Mediterranean forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios

Projected river water temperatures in Poland under climate change scenarios

Projected river water temperatures in Poland under climate change scenarios

Impact of climate change to the potential habitat distribution of three cephalopod species from offshore of Zhejiang.

Impact of climate change to the potential habitat distribution of three cephalopod species from offshore of Zhejiang.

Climate change and overfishing combine to drive the population decline of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in the Pearl River Estuary from the Northern South China Sea.

Climate change and overfishing combine to drive the population decline of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in the Pearl River Estuary from the Northern South China Sea.

Forecasting the potential habitat for the spectacled bear and the Páramo ecoregion for current conditions and climate change scenarios in 2050: A contribution to SDG 15 in Perú, Ecuador and Colombia

Forecasting the potential habitat for the spectacled bear and the Páramo ecoregion for current conditions and climate change scenarios in 2050: A contribution to SDG 15 in Perú, Ecuador and Colombia

Surface ozone pollution-driven risks for the yield of major food crops under future climate change scenarios in India.

Surface ozone pollution-driven risks for the yield of major food crops under future climate change scenarios in India.

Simulated climate warming scenarios lead to earlier emergence and increased weight loss but have no effect on overwintering survival in solitary bees.

Simulated climate warming scenarios lead to earlier emergence and increased weight loss but have no effect on overwintering survival in solitary bees.

Changing climate in Italian cities and Italian building regulations: Analysis focused on future climate change scenarios

Changing climate in Italian cities and Italian building regulations: Analysis focused on future climate change scenarios

Decadal long sub-lethal temperature increases alter the production of non-structural carbohydrates in Zostera muelleri.

Decadal long sub-lethal temperature increases alter the production of non-structural carbohydrates in Zostera muelleri.

Simulating the effects of climate change on the growth and management of uneven-aged Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis L.) in Hyrcanian forests of Iran

Abstract Adaptive management approaches are needed to maintain and improve forests’ resilience to future climatic changes. Climate sensitive forest increment models are the crucial tools to evaluate the performance of the adaptive strategies in forest management under climate change. Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis L.) is the most dominating and commercially important tree species in Hyrcanian forests of Iran, the main source of timber production, biodiversity conservation, and eco-tourism. Consequently, this study aims to achieve three primary objectives: (1) to develop a climate-sensitive tree increment and yield model for oriental beech forests (2) to predict the increment and yielding of these forests in the future under climate change (IPCC scenarios), and (3) to analyze the resilience of four alternative management strategies including business as usual (BAU) and logging ban. We re-calibrated a single-tree diameter and height increment, and tree survival models using forest measurement data from permanent plots with five-year interval and from 1988 to 2018. By validating the models, three climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 as well as four harvest strategies (logging ban, intensified logging (50% above BAU), and decreased logging (50% < BAU), and BAU) were applied for the simulation of increment and survival probability of single trees in a selected site. Our findings indicate that climate change, particularly increased drought stress under the RCP8.5 scenario, significantly reduces the increment and survival probability of beech trees. However, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, we observed a slight increase in increment. Implementing a logging ban as a management strategy emerged as the most resilient alternative for these forests, potentially fostering an increase in both diameter (up to 5.93 cm) and height increment (up to 3.12 m) until the final period. These findings lend support to the existing forest policy of enforcing a ten-year logging ban in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran.

Catchment-based water resources modelling and planning of the transboundary Inkisi River in the Congo Basin

ABSTRACT Large river basins exhibit many local-scale management concerns for which a catchment-based approach is required. This study addresses the need for hydrological and water resources management information at the scale of decision making, the catchment scale. A hydrology and water resources planning modelling approach is applied to a transboundary Inkisi River in the Congo basin, based on six catchments that were partitioned following the catchment classification framework for Congo basin. The model is established for the reference period, spanning from 1948 to 2021, to generate the necessary information on water availability, and is used to assess future scenarios of climate change and water demands for the horizon 2100. The model is calibrated using on 20 years of available streamflow data, which shows a good performance based on the objective functions of hydrological model evaluation. Assessment of the impact of climate change, based on two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, shows a decreasing trend in water availability, highlighting the need for adaptive water management strategies.

Beyond the Trail—Understanding Non‐Native Plant Invasions in Mountain Ecosystems

ABSTRACTAimWe aimed to examine the abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic drivers of non‐native plant species distribution along hiking trails in mountainous regions.LocationNine mountain regions across six continents, including North America (USA), South America (Argentina and Chile), Europe (Sweden, Norway, Czech Republic), Africa (South Africa), Asia (China) and Oceania (Australia).Time PeriodData were collected between 2016 to 2022 during the summer season.Major Taxa StudiedVascular plants.MethodsWe implemented a standardised sampling design (MIREN trail survey) with T‐shaped sample sites placed parallel to trails and perpendicular to adjacent vegetation. We examined the main drivers (abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic factors) affecting non‐native species' presence, richness and cover.ResultsAt the global scale, abiotic (climatic) variables explained most of the variation in non‐native species richness. In contrast, biotic factors were the most important for the presence and cover of non‐native plants. Anthropogenic factors, including distance to the trail, use intensity and livestock grazing, were also important but to a lesser extent than the main factors. While the total number of non‐native species differed across regions, the patterns explaining plant invasions were consistent.Main ConclusionsOur regional study identified mountain trails that are particularly vulnerable to plant invasions. Our findings suggest that under future scenarios of climate change, increased anthropogenic pressure and heightened livestock activity, the presence of non‐native species beyond trail edges may become more frequent. This highlights the need to restrict off‐trail activities in areas of high conservation value.

INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO COASTAL COMPOUND FLOOD RISK

Coastal communities are increasingly vulnerable to multi- hazard events such as storm surges, riverine flooding, and precipitation-induced runoff. Current engineering practices and risk management strategies necessitate a comprehensive assessment of these concurrent risks to effectively mitigate potential damages. Traditional methods, including those outlined in the North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, 2015), tend to focus on storm surge and wave contributions on coastal flooding, and less so combined effects of precipitation. Advancements in climate science suggest a shifting baseline for the frequency and intensity of these events under climate change scenarios, although associated with uncertainties. Despite these uncertainties, there is a need for tools that integrate predicted climate change impacts into coastal flooding hazard evaluations, thereby enhancing the alignment of engineering practices with applied climate and weather research. This presentation introduces a framework for evaluating coastal flood risks incorporating the effects of climate change.

EXPLORING THE VIABILITY OF ACCOMMODATION SPACE-BASED COASTAL ADAPTATION IN DEVELOPED MEDITERRANEAN COASTS

At present, a substantial part of the Mediterranean sedimentary coastline is retreating (e.g. Luijendijk et al. 2018), a trend that could be intensified by climate change, thereby increasing the risk of beach disappearance (e.g. Vousdoukas et al. 2020). Harnessing the natural resilience of coastal ecosystems to adapt to external pressures is gaining prominence as a favored approach for enhancing climate resilience and thus support EU policy priorities. This work presents a framework for assessing the necessary accommodation space to facilitate the natural rebuilding of beaches under an external forcing. It integrates predictions of the space requirement to cope with coastal hazards under both current and future climate change scenarios, within relevant time horizons for planning purposes. The ultimate practical goal is to categorize the territory based on space requirements, land characteristics, and the feasibility of generating the necessary space. This classification will also enable the identification of areas suitable for the implementation of adaptation measures that demand additional space, such as dunes, wetlands or managed retreat, differentiating between those where such measures can be easily applied and areas where they are only viable for short-term horizons.

MODELING THE FUTURE OF CORAL REEFS: AN ECO-MORPHODYNAMIC APPROACH

Coral reefs are complex biological structures that provide critical ecosystem services, such as provision of habitat for marine organisms, fisheries supply, recreational space for tourism industry, and coastal protection. Due to climate change, coral reefs have been undergoing, and will continue to experience, alterations in their capacity to deliver essential ecosystem services. To comprehend these existing alterations and forecast reef responses to future climate change scenarios, it is imperative to employ dynamic modeling approaches that encompass both abiotic and biotic factors. This study aims to build an eco-morphodynamic point model (also known as a Zero-Dimensional – 0D - Model) that incorporates the key variables responsible for driving changes within reef systems, ultimately affecting their capacity to mitigate wave impacts and facilitate sediment production. For the development of this model, we chose the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) as a testing ground, due to its extensive reef network, offering a wide range of scenarios, and its ample and long-term data availability.

NATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF SEA LEVEL RISE VULNERABILITY OF ARCHEOLOGICAL HERITAGE SITES OF TURKIYE

The coastal cultural heritage sites are expected to be affected negatively by sea-level rise, although these impacts will be observed at different levels in different areas. ICOMOS (2019) has urged the member states to determine and assess the vulnerability and risks of those cultural heritage sites that are under threat and increase the efforts to protect and adapt these locations to the impacts of climate change. Turkey has many significant natural and archeological heritage sites with outstanding values, and these areas are protected by law. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkiye (TUBITAK) funded project “Vulnerability of Coastal Cultural Heritage Areas to Sea Level Rise and Its Impacts” (No: 122M613) focused on assessing the vulnerability of the coastal areas with heritage sites (both natural and cultural sites protected by law) to sea level rise and its impacts (coastal erosion, inundation and coastal flooding due to extreme water levels) using the Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model, FCVAM (Ozyurt, 2010). Within the project, an additional module is developed to determine the vulnerability of coastal cultural heritage sites based on their interaction with the coastal area and the coastal vulnerability. The assessments use several sea level rise projections based on different climate change scenarios to ensure that the vulnerability of these sites reflects the latest sea level rise research and the uncertainty ranges. Thus, the coastal cultural heritage sites of Turkiye will be prioritized according to their vulnerability at a national level and using a multi-dimensional approach. This study will present these Turkish coastal archeological heritage sites exposed to impacts of sea level rise, their respective coastal vulnerability indices, and the heritage vulnerability results based on the heritage site characteristics and their interaction with the coastal vulnerability.

Co-constructing and simulating LUCC scenarios for evaluating the sustainability of environmental policies and supporting long-term decision-making

Urbanization and agricultural intensification are major drivers of biodiversity loss due to multiple stressors, including land artificialization, habitat fragmentation, isolation, and degradation. These land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC) also impact water quality, carbon sequestration, and ecosystem services. Designing Blue and Green Infrastructure Networks (BGINs) has been proposed as a strategic approach to land-use planning that enhances ecosystem services while preserving biodiversity and improving water management. This study focuses on the Couesnon watershed (Brittany, France) within the LTSER Zone Atelier Armorique (https://deims.org/31e67a47-5f15-40ad-9a72-f6f0ee4ecff6). A participatory approach was employed to develop five future LUCC scenarios incorporating BGINs. Narrative descriptions were then used as input for the FORESCEM model to simulate LUCC dynamics (Fig. 1 - Houet et al. 2022). The impacts on biodiversity were assessed by evaluating changes in landscape connectivity for woodlands, grasslands, and wetlands using the model developed by Boussard et al. (2020). Additionally, the effects on water quality and quantity were analyzed under LUCC and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios using the model developed by Álvarez-Cabria et al. (2016). The effectiveness of BGIN policies was assessed by comparing current landscape connectivity (2018) with projected connectivity in 2050 and by estimating future water quality. Results indicate that despite integrating BGINs, the projected impacts on biodiversity (Fig. 2) and water resources could still be significantly negative. Key drivers of future agricultural land-use changes and related environmental impacts include evolving CAP priorities, demographic trends among farmers, and climate change. While BGINs are effective in mitigating urbanization impacts, they may not be sufficient at the landscape scale. This study highlights the necessity of systemic environmental policies that foster synergies among different administrative services involved in land management. The current sectoral (or "siloed") organisation levels remain a barrier to achieving land sustainability goals. While LUCC simulations are designed to assist decision-makers in implementing sustainable policies, we examined whether our results effectively support local stakeholders in the Couesnon watershed. We conducted 14 public meetings involving nearly 150 participants, including farmers, policymakers, land and resource management professionals, and students. Surveys and interviews conducted during the meetings and 6 to 12 months later revealed that while scenario-based approaches can influence decision-making, their impact requires time to materialize (Rigo and Houet 2023, Rigo et al. 2024). These findings underscore the need for further research and the importance of effectively communicating scientific insights to support the understanding, monitoring, and sustainable management of socio-ecological systems within the critical zone.

Critical below-ground drought effects on temperate trees – insights from six years of ecophysiological monitoring and two years of rain exclusion

Climate change, including a reduction in precipitation, increased atmospheric moisture demand, and drying soils, threaten the life-supporting function in trees. In response, trees can exhibit different below-ground drought acclimation strategies, including increased root-water uptake depth and root growth to increase water supply. We initiated a long-term monitoring experiment at the Swiss Canopy Crane II (SCCII) site in Switzerland in 2018, including a rainfall exclusion of 50% during the vegetation period (April-October) since 2023. The SCCII site provides growing conditions representative of a central European mid-mountain range forest and hosts 10 co-occurring European temperate tree species. For six years, we measured the δ2H and δ18O values of samples collected from tree xylem, soil water in different depths, and precipitation, as well as a multitude of ecophysiological measurements within a great range of environmental conditions (wet and dry), including the exceptionally dry summer in 2023. The extreme conditions in 2023 caused canopy dieback and mortality in individuals of Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, and Abies alba in the drought treatment indicating critically low soil water supply. We utilized the data to parameterize the hydrological model LWFBrook90.jl with the goal of simulating soil moisture, soil water potential and soil water isotope transport, as well as root water uptake depth under different environmental conditions. By quantifying the temporal origins of root water uptake and running scenarios of further increased drought conditions, we will quantify the access of different tree species to soil water from various depths and the soil water residence time. Moreover, we will quantify how soil water residence time and, thus, the supply of water to tree species at different soil depths varies under different climate change scenarios. First results show that depending on the severity of drought and tree water consumption, the soil water is used up almost entirely within one growing season indicating the vital role of summer precipitation and winter-time refilling. We expect the final results of this study to provide us with valuable insights on soil water retention time and the temporal dynamics of root water uptake under various drought conditions. These findings will increase our understanding critical below-ground drought effects and acclimation of temperate trees.

The impact of stratospheric aerosol injection: a regional case study

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a form of climate intervention that has been proposed to limit future warming and mitigate some of the adverse impacts of climate change while humanity continues efforts to reduce emissions and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. In this study, we use an Earth system model to compare the projected effects of a climate change scenario to three different SAI scenarios. Our analysis centers on both climate and crop productivity impacts. We focus on four Global South regions: South Asia, East Asia, South Central America, and West Africa. These regions were selected due to their socioeconomic vulnerability to climate change. The SAI scenarios project reduced temperature extremes and greater wet season precipitation, soil moisture and crop productivity compared to the climate change scenario over all four regions. We also find that the extent to which SAI mitigates crop productivity declines due to climate change is likely greater in South Central America and West Africa than in South and East Asia. Our study is a step toward addressing the need for more regional analyses of the potential impacts of different SAI scenarios.