Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

Predicting future impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow in the middle reaches of China's Yellow River

With increasing temperatures, changing weather patterns and ongoing development, it is becoming increasingly important to clarify the evolution mechanism of future regional streamflow processes and their controlling factors. In this study, an integrated framework for watershed streamflow prediction based on a Global Climate Model (GCM), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was proposed in the middle Yellow River. The results indicate that, compared with the baseline period (1989–2018), levels of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase in the next 30 years, resulting in a warmer and wetter regional climate. Under various climate scenarios, the annual streamflow is projected to increase by 49.2–115.1%. The acreage of various land types may have tended to be saturated, and the main land types such as cropland, forest and grassland have little change (−6.6%-0.6%), so the impact on streamflow will be correspondingly reduced. Under various land use scenarios, the annual streamflow is projected to increase by 5.0%–7.3%. The annual average streamflow trends under the combined climate and land use scenarios are consistent with the climate change scenarios, while the mean values corresponding to the combined scenarios are higher than those of the single scenario. Findings show that climate change is the main driver influencing streamflow, with a contribution of 86.3%–95.1%. This study deepens understanding of the change pattern and influence mechanism of the streamflow process, which can provide a scientific basis for the development and refinement of regional ecological construction plans.

Evaluating water quality of rock glacier outflows in the Western Alps, Italy: a regional perspective.

Intact rock glaciers (RG) are considered valuable water storage because containing permafrost ice volumes. The hydrological relevance of RG is forecasted to increase with respect to glaciers under climate change scenarios, as well as RG's role as water resources in alpine basins for multiple uses. Besides the assessment of water amount stored in intact rock glaciers, the evaluation of water quality is of primary importance. Here, we present the results of a chemical survey performed on five outflows from intact RG in 2020-2023 in the Piedmont region, Western Alps, Italy, along a latitudinal gradient and in different geological settings. The survey aimed to assess the water quality of RG outflows based on chemical indicators (major ions, nutrients, trace metals). Sampling and analyses were performed according to standard methods for freshwater samples, paying specific attention to the analytical quality and consistency of the data. We considered seasonal and interannual variability of the main chemical variables and the possible effects of RG outflows on the chemistry of lakes and ponds located in proximity to the RG. All the investigated sites were characterized by low to moderate ion content, low nutrients, and trace metals close to or below the detection limit, indicating a good water quality status. Results suggested lithology as the main factor affecting the chemical composition of RG outflows. The results of this study indicate it is advisable to develop shared protocols and joint monitoring programs for data collecting at RG outflow sites all over the Alps, possibly integrating chemical and biological indicators, with the final aim of monitoring the water quality of these valuable resources and its temporal evolution under climate change.

Potential impact of climate change on water productivity and water footprints of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plains of India.

Agriculture faces a significant problem as a result of the decline in per capita freshwater supply that has been observed over the past couple of decades. Better water management strategies are required in order to make agriculture water secure, environmentally sustainable, and economically attractive. The goal of this study was to develop water productivity scenarios for rice and wheat crops in India's Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) by analysing agricultural production from the perspective of water consumption. To pinpoint the areas that are hydrologically suitable for growing rice and wheat crops under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, water footprints and water productivity have been mapped. The study found that changes in temperature trends under future climate scenarios are probably going to increase crop water requirements, leading to greater water footprints for IGP regions. Water risk hotspots have been identified in the IGP for the rice- and wheat-growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana. In order to achieve food security in a sustainable way, attention should be given to increase the water productivity of both crops.

Metabolic strategies in hypoxic plants.

Complex multicellular organisms have evolved in an oxygen-enriched atmosphere. Oxygen is therefore essential for all aerobic organisms including plants, for energy production through cellular respiration. However, plants can experience hypoxia following extreme flooding events and also under aerated conditions in proliferative organs or tissues characterized by high oxygen consumption. When oxygen availability is compromised, plants adopt different strategies to cope with hypoxia and limited aeration. A common feature among different plant species is the activation of an anaerobic fermentative metabolism to provide adenosine triphosphate (ATP) to maintain cellular homeostasis under hypoxia. Fermentation also requires many sugar substrates, which is not always feasible, and alternative metabolic strategies are thus needed. Recent findings have also shown that the hypoxic metabolism is also active in specific organs or tissues of the plant under aerated conditions. Here, we describe the regulatory mechanisms that control the metabolic strategies of plants and how they enable them to thrive despite challenging conditions. A comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the genetic and physiological components underlying hypoxic metabolism should help to provide opportunities to improve plant resilience under the current climate change scenario.

Impact of Solar Radiation Management on Andean glacier-wide surface mass balance

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is a climate intervention strategy aimed at mitigating global warming by reducing incoming solar radiation. We investigate the potential influence of SRM on Andean glacier-wide surface mass balance, as glaciers are crucial for downstream ecological functions along the west coast of South America. We numerically simulate the surface mass balance response of thousands of glaciers to SRM and other climate change scenarios throughout the 21st century. Results indicate Pan-Andean negative mass balance, irrespective of the scenario or glacier-climate regimes. However, SRM tends to modify interannual variability and temperature sensitivity in several regions. Our findings also suggest that if SRM had been implemented in the late 1980’s, it would have been effective in avoiding the negative trajectory seen today. The Andes feature nearly all mountain hydroclimatic regimes, representing a globally relevant example of SRM impacts. These findings emphasize the urgency of drastic emissions reduction.

Seven Decades of Surface Temperature Changes in Central European Lakes: What Is Next?

Lakes are vital components of the hydrosphere, holding both environmental and economic significance. In recent times, they have undergone transformations in one of their key characteristics—water temperature. Assessing the scale and pace of these changes depends on the length and accuracy of the available data. This study focuses on the two lakes in Poland (Białe Augustowskie and Studzieniczne) with the longest continuous water temperature records, ranging from 1954 to 2023. The results reveal a relatively stable thermal regime until the late 1980s (with changes that were statistically insignificant) and a significant shift over the past three decades, during which the water temperature increased at a rate of 0.5 °C per decade. Importantly, simulations indicate further warming of the water by the end of the 21st century. Depending on the chosen climate change scenario, the warming of both lakes is expected to continue, with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585) scenario projecting a steady increase of 0.5 °C per decade. Given the fundamental importance of water temperature in determining factors such as water quality, these future changes present a significant challenge for water management authorities in terms of maintaining and managing these ecosystems.

The scion-driven transcriptomic changes guide the resilience of grafted near-isohydric grapevines under water deficit

Abstract The large diversity of grapevine cultivars includes genotypes more tolerant to water deficit than others. Widely distributed cultivars, like Merlot, are more sensitive to water deprivation than local cultivars like Callet, which are more adapted to water deficit due to their Mediterranean origin. Despite their tolerance, adaptation to water deficit influenced by grafting in rootstocks like 110 Richter is key to facing drought in vineyards, defining the scion/rootstock relationship. To understand these differences, we explored transcriptomic, metabolic, hormonal and physiological responses under three levels of water deficit (mild, high and extreme), using 110 Richter as the rootstock in both cultivars. Results revealed that sensitivity to ABA is essential for water deficit tolerance in the aerial part, guiding root responses. Callet/110 Richter activates more gene expression patterns in response to ABA, reducing water loss compared to Merlot/110 Richter in both aerial and root parts. This modulation in Callet/110 Richter involves regulating metabolic pathways to increase cell turgor, reducing photosynthesis, and producing molecules like polyphenols or flavonoids to respond to oxidative stress. In contrast, Merlot/110 Richter shows a lack of specific response, especially in the roots, indicating less resilience to water stress. Therefore, selecting genotypes more sensitive to ABA and their interaction with rootstocks is key for managing vineyards in future climate change scenarios.

Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change.

Magnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China. We selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R. The ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions. Our study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora.

A Global Estimation of Potential Climate Change Effects on Pollinator-Dependent Crops

AbstractClimate change poses a threat to global food security by significantly affecting agricultural products, both directly and indirectly. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the climate suitability of 61 pollinator-dependent crops worldwide under different climate change scenarios. Utilizing species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted climate suitability maps for these crops in the present and projected conditions for 2070. Our findings indicate that under the most pessimistic climate change scenario in 2070 (SSP585), 16, 31, 34, 29, 29, and 31 crops in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America, respectively, may experience a decrease in their suitable habitats. On average, crops in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America are expected to see a decrease of − 14.5%, − 11.2%, − 26.2%, − 4.7%, 5.5%, and − 14.4% in their suitability by 2070. Regional variations in the effects of climate change on crops highlight the vulnerability of certain areas, particularly Australia, where a substantial number of crops face a decline in suitable habitats. Conversely, North America may witness an increase in the distribution of specific products. Urgent action is needed to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including the development of more resilient crop varieties and improvements in agricultural practices, especially for highly vulnerable pollinator-dependent crops in Asia and Africa.

An integrated policy approach for sustainable decarbonization pathways of energy system in a city under climate change scenarios

An integrated assessment model has been developed to estimate useful energy demand, followed by an optimization model for planning the energy supply. Four scenarios have been developed. The findings of this study highlight the impact of behavioral, climate change, and socio-economic factors on energy demand and supply. Specifically, these factors can lead to significant variations in demand, such as a more than 3.48-fold difference in cooling demand or a 1.75-fold difference in the transportation demand by cars across various scenarios.The use of a dual-fuel car and electric motorcycle is suggested in all scenarios. Waste processing has been done with a landfill in all scenarios except in the final years of the net-zero emission target scenario, where an incinerator is proposed. The supply model for electricity generation in the early years suggests the combined cycle power plant followed by solar energy at the end. However, in the low-cost electricity scenario, it is always suggested to import electricity. The sensitivity analysis showed that the emission penalty and electricity price are the most important parameters. The results of this study will help policymakers and decision-makers in energy system planning and provide researchers with appropriate information, tools, and methods for future research.

Prediction of number of generations of serpentine leaf miner, <i>Liriomyza trifolii</i> (Burgess) (Agromyzidae: Diptera) in India assessed by CLIMEX under climate change scenario

The serpentine leaf miner, Liriomyza trifolii, is an invasive pest that affects plants, causing damage to the leaves and reducing crop yield. Number of generations of serpentine leaf miner was assessed under current and expected future climate change scenarios. The assessment was done for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) future climate change scenario in India. L. trifolii would have had 16-19 generations, in base line and 17-24 in 2050-time frame under future climate change in Andhra Pradesh conditions. Under Arunachal Pradesh conditions, it would have had 6-14 generations in base line and is expected to complete the same number of generations in 2050, scenario. Under Sikkim conditions 3 - 4 and 5 number of generations were assessed for present and future climate change scenario. Suitability of the localities was expressed in terms of Ecoclimatic index (EI) ranging from 0 to > 20 by combining the interaction effect of various stress indices and growth indices for the development of L. trifolii. It was observed that in temperate areas the pest incidence may increase in future, in contrast to the decreasing trend in areas where already the prevailing temperatures are near upper thresholds. It is therefore expected that number of generations of L. trifolii would increase with the rising temperatures under climate change situations.

High-resolution modeling and projection of heat-related mortality in Germany under climate change.

Heat has become a leading cause of preventable deaths during summer. Understanding the link between high temperatures and excess mortality is crucial for designing effective prevention and adaptation plans. Yet, data analyses are challenging due to often fragmented data archives over different agglomeration levels. Using Germany as a case study, we develop a multi-scale machine learning model to estimate heat-related mortality with variable temporal and spatial resolution. This approach allows us to estimate heat-related mortality at different scales, such as regional heat risk during a specific heatwave, annual and nationwide heat risk, or future heat risk under climate changescenarios. We estimate a total of 48,000 heat-related deaths in Germany during the last decade (2014-2023), and the majority of heat-related deaths occur during specific heatwave events. Aggregating our results over larger regions, we reach good agreement with previously published reports from Robert Koch Institute (RKI). In 2023, the heatwave of July 7-14 contributes approximately 1100 cases (28%) to a total of approximately 3900 heat-related deaths for the whole year. Combining our model with shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) of future climate change provides evidence that heat-related mortality in Germany could further increase by a factor of 2.5 (SSP245) to 9 (SSP370) without adaptation to extreme heat under static sociodemographic developments assumptions. Our approach is a valuable tool for climate-driven public health strategies, aiding in the identification of local risks during heatwaves and long-term resilience planning.

The Effect of Climate Change on Indicator Wetland Insects: Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of Two Giant Water Bugs (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) in South Korea.

Giant water bugs (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) are top predators in wetland ecosystems, serving as biological indicators of the health of lentic ecosystems and as effective biological control agents for freshwater snails and mosquitoes. This study aimed to predict the current and future distribution of two Korean giant water bugs, Appasus japonicus and Diplonychus esakii, under three climate change scenarios, contributing to the sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in South Korea. Using MaxEnt models, we employed seven climatic and three non-climatic variables to investigate the habitat preferences and distribution patterns of the species. The results revealed that A. japonicus is likely to experience a northward range contraction due to climate change, while D. esakii is predicted to expand its distribution northward without losing its current range. These responses may lead to occupancy turnover between the two species, potentially driving reassembly in aquatic organism community. Elevation was the primary factor influencing the distribution of A. japonicus, whereas annual mean temperature was the most informative variable for D. esakii, both factors derived under the current climate conditions. These findings suggest that both species are highly sensitive to climate change, with potential range shifts toward higher latitudes and elevations. This study provides insights into how climate change could impact two giant water bugs, thereby supporting future efforts to manage and conserve wetland ecosystems in this country.

Case Study on the Adaptive Assessment of Floods Caused by Climate Change in Coastal Areas of the Republic of Korea

This study aims to assess the adaptability of coastal areas in the Republic of Korea to future climate change-induced flooding. Coastal areas can be susceptible to complex external factors, including rainfall, tide levels, storm surge wave overtopping, etc. The study employs an integrated approach to address this, connecting hydrological and marine engineering technologies. The models utilized in this study encompass XP-SWMM, ADCIRC, SWAN, and FLOW-3D. This study analyzed floods in 2050 and 2100, considering expected rainfall patterns, sea level rising, and an increase in typhoon intensity based on climate change scenarios for six coastal areas in the Republic of Korea. We reviewed the adaptability of flooding to climate change in each region.

Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change: a decision making under deep uncertainty-based approach for effective actions

ABSTRACT Livestock farmers are increasingly challenged to adapt to the impacts of climate change, necessitating the selection of adaptation strategies to effectively mitigate risks and protect livelihoods. This paper introduces a framework designed specifically for guiding the selection of context-specific adaptation options in the Eastern and Southern Africa region. The framework builds on a decision tree that incorporates changes within a management system or switching to another one, enabling a nuanced evaluation of adaptation options. Driven repetitively under different scenarios of climate changes and/or climate models, the frequencies of selecting different adaptation measures vary across livestock value chains, climate zones, and systems. Responding to the evolution of the climate system, these frequencies evolve over time, affecting the selection. For instance, agroforestry emerges as an increasingly suitable option for cattle and, to a lesser extent, for goats due to the projected rise in moderate heat stress periods, particularly in tropical climates. Conversely, this frequency decreases for sheep, more susceptible to heat stress, beyond the effect of agroforestry. This framework resolves the need for more context – and time-specific decisions on adaptation. This decision tree-based framework serves as a robust decision-making tool to steer the livestock sector toward effective climate change adaptation.

Global change drives potential niche contraction and range shift of globally threatened African vulture

Human-induced global change poses an increasingly severe threat to biodiversity, with species having limited population sizes being particularly vulnerable. Mapping and modeling the distribution ranges of such species, along with detecting potential range shifts and contractions at both local and regional scales, are essential for developing effective conservation plans. Ruppell's vulture Gyps rueppelli, an ecologically important bird species native to Africa, is experiencing a rapid decline in its range. The purpose of this study is to map and model potential regional spatio-temporal distribution of Ruppell's vulture in Africa, alongside detecting the possibility of the species' range shifts and contractions. A total of 804 rarefied localities were identified where the Ruppell's vulture was the dominant bird species. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to perform species distribution modeling for the Ruppell's vulture. The modeling considered current climate conditions (1970s-2000s) as a baseline, along with two future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) for two future time periods (2050s and 2070s). The model's performance was evaluated by optimizing settings and examining the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). Among the 13 bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables included in the model, four (isothermality, cropland expansion, anthropogenic biomes, and urban expansion (in order of importance)) emerged as the most influential drivers of Ruppell's vulture regional distribution. All considered Species distribution models (SDMs) achieved high predictive performance, with AUC-ROC values exceeding 0.9.The model predicted a total of approximately 19,453 ha of suitable habitat for Ruppell's vultures in Africa, with East Africa identified as the most prominent region under the current climate scenario. Isothermality (38.8%) was the primary factor influencing Ruppell's vulture distribution, followed by agricultural expansion (29.9%) and anthropogenic biomes (7.2%) in the face of global change. The results reveal considerable future habitat loss (up to 61%) for Ruppell's vultures in the study area, alongside an eastward range shift (longitudinal axis) by the 2050s under projected climate change scenarios. These imply that Ruppell's vultures face imminent population decline and range shift due to significant habitat loss and climate change. Hence, prioritizing the development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program that incorporates captive breeding and assisted migration is critical to save this vulture species in its native African range.

Spatial optimization of land use and carbon storage prediction in urban agglomerations under climate change: Different scenarios and multiscale perspectives of CMIP6

Land use/land cover (LULC) structure optimization can effectively increase carbon storage/carbon sequestration (CS) and help realize carbon neutrality goals1. Studying the spatial distributions of LULC and CS under climate change conditions is highly important for realizing sustainable development goals. This study is based on different climate change models, and the coordinated development of economic, water, carbon and ecological sustainability was considered to establish a comprehensive multiscale, multiscenario and multiobjective LULC optimization model. Then, different climate change scenarios were optimized, and regional CS values were predicted. The LULC simulation model provided satisfactory simulation results at different scales. Notably, the average accuracy exceeded 0.92. The optimized land expansion results exhibited heterogeneity. Forestland change accounted for the largest proportion of the total LULC change. After optimization, the CS values under the different scenarios were similar. The northwestern part of the study area served as the main carbon sink area. The aim of this study was to respond to future complex climate change by rationally planning the LULC structure, thus achieving the sustainable development of urban agglomerations.

The Germination Performance After Dormancy Breaking of Leucaena diversifolia (Schltdl.) Benth. Seeds in a Thermal Gradient and Its Distribution Under Climate Change Scenarios.

Climate change models predict temperature increases, which may affect germination, an important stage in the recruitment of individuals in agroecosystems. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct research on how temperature will impact the germination of multipurpose native species. Leucaena diversifolia (Schltdl.) Benth. is native to America and is commonly cultivated around the world due to having a high protein content in seeds, and their trees are used in agrosilvopastoral systems because they fix nitrogen and provide shade and cattle feed. However, climate change affects the critical phases of its life cycle and influences its growth, reproduction, phenology, and distribution. To assess the germination performance of Leucaena diversifolia under different temperatures throughout thermal times, we estimated germination variables and determined cardinal temperatures and thermal time; we also analysed germination and potential distribution under two climate change scenarios. We found significant variations in seed germination (78-98%) and differences in cardinal temperatures (Tb = 5.17 and 7.6 °C, To = 29.42 and 29.54 °C, and Tc = 39.45 and 39.76 °C). On the other hand, the sub-optimal and supra-optimal temperature values showed little differences: 51.34 and 55.57 °Cd. The models used showed variations in germination time for the analysed scenarios and the potential distribution. We confirm that the populations and distribution of L. diversifolia will be altered due to climate changes, but the species retains the ability to germinate under warmer conditions.

Modelling the Effects of Forest use Change on Brownification of Finnish Rivers under Atmospheric Pressure.

Browning of surface waters due to increased terrestrial loading of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is observed across the Northern Hemisphere. The effects influence several ecosystem services from freshwater productivity to water purification. Brownification is often explained by changes in large-scale anthropogenic pressures and ecosystem functioning (acidification, climate change, and land cover changes). This study examined the effect of forest use changes on water browning in Finland, considering the effects of global pressures. Our goal was to find the ecosystems and geographic areas that are most sensitive to environmental pressures that increase the loading of DOM. We were also looking for land use strategies that decrease browning. We combined mathematical watershed modelling to scenarios of climate change, atmospheric deposition, and forest use change. Changes included scenarios of forest harvest and protection on forest, that were derived from European Union's regulation. The study area covered 20 watersheds from south to north of Finland. In northern Finland brownification continue. In southern Finland global influence (atmospheric deposition, climate change) seem to weaken, giving more space for local forest use change having an influence on brownification. Forest use change was more influential in river basins dominated by organic soils than in mineral soils. Extending forest protection decreased brownification especially in areas where the influence of atmospheric pressure is decreasing. When forest protection is planned to provide a carbon storage and sequestration potential and to favor biodiversity, it has favorable effect on surface water quality as well.

Salinity influence on Mytilus galloprovincialis exposed to antineoplastic agents: a transcriptomic, biochemical, and histopathological approach

Nowadays, aquatic species face a variety of environmental risks associated with pharmaceutical consumption. More specifically, the increased number of cancer patients has been accompanied by an increased consumption of antineoplastic drugs, such as ifosfamide (IF) and cyclophosphamide (CP). These drugs have been found in aquatic ecosystems, raising concerns about their impact, especially on estuarine species, as marine waters are the final recipients of continental effluents. Simultaneously, predicted climatic changes, such as salinity shifts, may threaten organisms. Considering this, the present research aims to investigate the combined effects of IF and CP, and salinity shifts. For this, a transcriptomic, biochemical, and histopathological assessment was made using the bivalve species Mytilus galloprovincialis exposed for 28 days to IF and CP (500 ng/L), individually, at different salinity levels (20, 30, and 40). IF and CP up-regulated metabolism-related gene cyp3a1, with CP also affecting abcc gene, showing minimal salinity impact and highlighting the importance of these metabolic routes in mussels. Salinity shifts affected the transcription of genes related to apoptosis and cell cycle growth, such as p53, as well as the aerobic metabolism, the antioxidant and biotransformation mechanisms. These findings indicate mussels' high metabolic adaptability to osmotic stress. Under CP exposure and low salinity, mussels exhibited increased cellular damage and histopathological effects in digestive gland tubules, revealing detrimental effects towards M. galloprovincialis, and suggesting that a metabolic slowdown and activation of antioxidant mechanisms helped prevent oxidative damage at the control and high salinities. Overall, results reinforce the need for antineoplastics ecotoxicological risk assessment, especially under foreseen climate change scenarios.