Climate Change Decision Research Articles

Reflections on preparing regional chapters for NCA5

Regional chapters in the National Climate Assessment (NCA) report provide a comprehensive synthesis of how climate change is impacting United States regions and are extensively used to support climate change decision-making by local communities and policymakers. The regional chapter author teams are tasked with assessing the climate trends, risks, and responses across a range of sectors and across a vast and diverse geography, while making content locally relevant. Regional chapters have evolved in many ways since the third NCA (NCA3), often shifting from focusing on climate stressors and hazards to addressing more diverse human-centric impacts (e.g., human health), inequities, and other barriers to action. The fifth NCA (NCA5) author teams were constructed to be intentionally diverse, including more social scientists and cultural practitioners. Here, regional chapter authors provide reflections on the assessment process and identify some best practices for developing an effective regional chapter. These include building a diverse and complementary author team, utilizing technical contributors to enhance the technical and geographical expertise of the team, and conducting extensive public engagement with local communities and policymakers throughout the process. To improve future regional NCA chapters, we identify several recommendations: (1) thoughtful analysis and possible revision of regional boundaries, (2) inclusion of authors from underrepresented regions on national-scale topic chapters, (3) structured cross-chapter engagement among regional chapters, (4) a holistic communications plan for the post-release period, and (5) better coordination with sub-national climate assessments.

Perspectives of Socio-Scientific Issues in Educational Research: A Bibliometric Analysis

The intricate nature of socio-scientific issues has gained traction among researchers in recent decades. This study explores educational research focused on socio-scientific issues over the last 21 years (2002-2023) using the bibliometric method. The analysis of 350 Scopus-indexed articles was conducted, examining publication trends, influential contributors, and research trajectories through citation, co-occurrence, and co-citation analyses. Co-citation analysis reveals a complex intellectual structure within the field, with a dominant cluster of influential authors and several smaller, specialized research communities emerging. Analysis revealed that the major themes discussed by the examined articles include the nature of science, climate-change decision-making, and education for sustainability, which are crucial in addressing contemporary challenges in education and society. This study highlights the significance of fostering interdisciplinary cooperation and integration of technological aspects into future research. It also identifies the necessity of addressing gaps in research resources, improving knowledge accessibility, and strengthening international collaborations for the field's advancement.

Cognitive Biases and Climate Change Decision-Making: Understanding the Role of Optimism and Anchoring in Environmental Choices

This study examines the role of optimism bias and anchoring bias in climate change risk perception and decision-making among 120 Pakistani university teachers in environmental science, psychology, and behavioral economics. The data were gathered using a self-report questionnaire with a quantitative research design and analyzed using correlation and regression analysis. The findings indicate that there is a strong negative correlation (r = -0.621, p < 0.001) between optimism bias and climate risk perception, and individuals with higher optimism bias overestimate climate risks. Anchoring bias was also statistically significant (B = 0.487, p < 0.001) in influencing beliefs related to climate and climate policy decisions, confirming that the use of first information influences environmental attitudes. In addition, interventions for mitigation such as risk communication that is targeted and behavioral change interventions had a significant positive impact on environmental decision-making (B = 0.532, p < 0.001). The study highlights the need to implement cognitive bias mitigation strategies in climate education and policy to increase awareness of risk and policy engagement. Long-term biases effects and the role played by misinformation on the internet should be addressed in future research.

Psychological Trust Dynamics in Climate Change Adaptation Decision-Making Processes: A Literature Review

There has been a growth in interest among academics and professionals in psychological trust dynamics during climate change adaptation. This literature review aimed to examine the research concerning trust dynamics in climate change adaptation from different levels of analysis, encompassing the different phases of adaptation and considering the importance of trust in climate change decision-making. The method consisted of systematically reviewing researches on this topic published in scientific articles, by using appropriate and relevant search keywords (e.g., trust, community, natural hazard, climate change adaptation, decision-making) in academic databases. A total of 25 studies met inclusion criteria. All the articles focused on the latter phases of the climate change adaptation cycle, specifically implementation and monitoring/evaluation, with limited attention devoted to decision-making related to earlier phases of preparation, assessment of risks, and identification and selection of adaptation options. The reviews also indicates that psychological trust is related to different adaptive actions (e.g., adoption of renewable energy technologies), and low- and high-impact mitigation behaviors (e.g., acceptance of paying taxes for actions that mitigate climate change). Therefore, this review underscores the significant role of psychological trust dynamics in shaping individuals’ decision-making processes concerning climate change adaptation, thereby yielding immediate and direct implications for climate systems. Therefore, it is essential to actively promote the culture of trust within the context of climate change adaptation.

ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ ИСКУССТВЕННОГО ИНТЕЛЛЕКТА В ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ

The article describes the application of artificial intelligence in enterprise activities. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the use of intelligent technologies in various activities, including industrial enterprise management. Global competition, increasing demands on product quality and production efficiency, and the need to adapt to changing market conditions are becoming key factors driving climate change decision-making. Intelligent technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data analytics are becoming essential tools for improving the efficiency and competitiveness of organizations.

Designing role-play simulations for climate change decision-making: A step-by-step approach to facilitate cooperation between science and policy

Literature has demonstrated the benefits of role-play simulations (RPS) for decision-making and social learning in the field of climate change and environmental policy. Despite growing interest, step-by-step guidelines are still rare when it comes to the practical design and implementation of RPS, which hinders the adoption and implementation of this promising approach. This article aims to facilitate the development of RPS by proposing a step-by-step framework for designing role-play simulations around three stages – before, during, and after the simulation. To develop the methodology, we use as a starting point a pilot simulation on decision-making and knowledge production in contexts of uncertainty and complexity. Focusing on negative emission technologies in Switzerland, the pilot simulation involved 12 scientists and 12 politicians who role-played each other for half a day. Overall, we propose an actionable framework for RPS designed to facilitate cooperation between groups with different socialisations, timelines, and imperatives towards more informed and collaborative decision-making practices. Doing so, this article contributes to making RPS more accessible to a broad audience as a method supporting cooperation between science and policy in the field of climate and environmental politics and beyond.

Climate change summit: testing the impact of role playing games on crossing the knowledge to action gap

Climate change decision-making happens at the intersection of knowledge, values, and experience, usually requiring action with incomplete information. Yet, climate change education prioritizes improving knowledge gaps, not communication and contextual understanding. Role-playing games highlight the interaction of evidence and values in decision-making; they have also been shown to help participants cope with uncertainty. Here, we used a role-playing activity in 8 undergraduate science class sections to explore how role-playing affected climate change decision-making. We found that students selected significantly different climate proposals based on differing affinities with their characters. Students’ articulation of ‘uncertainty’ and ‘concreteness’ in justifying their final choices were significantly related to their chosen proposals. Students’ understanding of circumstance and perspective in driving different priorities/decisions increased significantly. This activity is scalable and broadly applicable; by empowering participants to discuss data and values and make decisions with incomplete information, we might encourage confident participation in the global climate conversation.

Equity in a sea of debt: how better understanding of small-scale fisheries can help reel in sustainable seafood

Abstract Small-scale fisheries are globally important to food security, nutrition, culture, ecosystem health, and livelihoods for millions of people. They also face considerable ecological, and economic pressures, including climate change, privatization, and top-down decision-making. Historically, processes of exclusion (e.g. industrialization, market forces, and settler colonialism) have persisted in the global food system. To mitigate against such processes and protect the livelihoods and human rights of small-scale fishers, the socially responsible seafood movement has emerged. This paper examines the local relationships in a seafood value chain in Indonesia, which extends from village fishers to international export markets. We present a case study from Sumbawa Indonesia, where a foreign direct seafood exporter is focused on sourcing socially responsible seafood from waters worked by small-scale fishers. Applying a systems lens, we analyse how a system driven by market forces and underpinned by western values can integrate with a system driven by traditional customs, social ties, and trust. The findings demonstrate that social connections and feedbacks within the value chain play a key role. Systems thinking reveals pathways to help synergize the two systems. This research shows that to deliver on the promise of socially responsible seafood, better understanding is needed of the interconnected social, cultural, and economic ties of small-scale fishers.

Extended Peer Communities: Appraising the contributions of tacit knowledges in climate change decision-making

This paper explores the implications of assessing tacit knowledges of climatic change in extended peer communities, as applied in two European research projects on climate action. Post-normal science (PNS) proposes the extension of the peer community to co-produce better quality knowledge for decision-making on issues like climate change, where facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. The paper has two aims. The first, more practical, is to explore methods for critically appraising tacit knowledges for climate action, using the example of two ongoing research projects. The second, more conceptual, is to improve practices and discourses surrounding tacit knowledge in current PNS praxis, with close consideration to the implications and challenges involved in including these forms of knowledge in decision making processes. By exploring theoretical perspectives on the topic of tacit knowledge, four challenges facing extended peer communities in engaging with tacit forms of knowledge have been identified: communication, representation, appropriation, and assessment.

Are citizen juries and assemblies on climate change driving democratic climate policymaking? An exploration of two case studies in the UK

In light of increasing pressure to deliver climate action targets and the growing role of citizens in raising the importance of the issue, deliberative democratic processes (e.g. citizen juries and citizen assemblies) on climate change are increasingly being used to provide a voice to citizens in climate change decision-making. Through a comparative case study of two processes that ran in the UK in 2019 (the Leeds Climate Change Citizens’ Jury and the Oxford Citizens’ Assembly on Climate Change), this paper investigates how far citizen assemblies and juries are increasing citizen engagement on climate change and creating more citizen-centred climate policymaking. Interviews were conducted with policymakers, councillors, professional facilitators and others involved in running these processes to assess motivations for conducting these, their structure and the impact and influence they had. The findings suggest the impact of these processes is not uniform: they have an indirect impact on policy making by creating momentum around climate action and supporting the introduction of pre-planned or pre-existing policies rather than a direct impact by truly being citizen-centred policy making processes or conducive to new climate policy. We conclude with reflections on how these processes give elected representatives a public mandate on climate change, that they help to identify more nuanced and in-depth public opinions in a fair and informed way, yet it can be challenging to embed citizen juries and assemblies in wider democratic processes.

Culturally mediated perceptions of climate change risks in New Zealand

As New Zealand moves towards implementing measures under its new zero carbon climate change act, it is increasingly important to understand the differences in public perceptions of climate change risks, as these can significantly foster or hinder climate change decision-making. While there is some existing research on a range of stakeholder views, beliefs and values pertaining to climate change risks in New Zealand, this paper argues for a more nuanced appreciation for who the ‘public’ is in the country. In an increasingly multi-cultural society, cultural differences across local population groups in climate change risk perception as well as in terms of their varying information needs is relevant to improved science communication and ultimately to improved climate change planning and decision-making.

From Stakeholders to Rightsholders: Assessing Public Participation in the International Climate Regime

Public participation in international climate change decision-making can be considered a human right. Although the international climate regime established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was developed at the same time that the right to participate in environmental decision-making was fleshed out, the rules and practices of the UNFCCC frame public participation in terms of its value to the negotiation process rather than from a rights perspective. This article takes a detailed look at the legal framework of the international climate regime regarding public participation. It explores the historical development of public participation, from the negotiation of the UNFCCC to the current rules of procedure of the Convention’s constituted bodies. The article further analyses the obligations of parties to both the UNFCCC and relevant international access rights agreements, namely the Aarhus Convention and the Escazú Agreement. The article shows that the UNFCCC, as an international forum, is still far from recognising public participation as a human right in its decision-making process. The article contemplates the rules and practices of the international climate regime, and explores how these could approximate the principles and provisions of international access rights agreements.

Climate Decision-Making

Climate change decision-making has emerged in recent decades as an area of research and practice, expanding on an earlier focus on climate policy. Defined as the study of decisions relevant for climate change, it draws on developments in decision science, particularly advances in the study of cognitive and deliberative processes in individuals and organizations. The effects of climate, economic, social, and other framings on decision-making have been studied, often showing that nonclimate frames can be as effective as, or more effective than, climate frames in promoting decision-making and action. The concept of urgency, linked to the ideas of climate crisis and climate emergency, has taken on importance in recent years. Research on climate decision-making has influenced numerous areas of climate action, including nudges and other behavioral interventions, corporate social responsibility, and Indigenous decision-making. Areas of transformational change, such as strategic retreat in the face of sea-level rise, are emerging.

The Vanuatu Tourism Adaptation System: a holistic approach to reducing climate risk

Tourist destinations in small island developing states are facing increasing risk from climate change, threatening not only tourism businesses but all destination elements including the community and ecosystems. In order to reduce climate risk destination wide, this paper first enhances the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change risk framework by extending it with destination specific features. This extended framework was drawn upon to develop a system model for Vanuatu, called the Vanuatu Tourism Adaptation System, using a qualitative multi-phase research design. The system highlights economic, socio-cultural, political, and environmental variables, how they are interlinked and thereby influence climate risk to destinations in Vanuatu. It provides a novel tool for understanding climate risk reduction within destinations as a holistic system and based on this understanding, destination trade-offs and policy recommendations are discussed. It can thus aid tourism and climate change decision makers in identifying and testing adaptation measures that benefit not only tourism but the destination more broadly, including the local community and ecosystem health. This study fills a gap in the academic literature by enhancing the systemic understanding of climate risk in small island developing states destinations and contributes to our understanding of tourism as a climate-resilient development pathway.

National guidance for adapting to coastal hazards and sea-level rise: Anticipating change, when and how to change pathway

National guidance for adapting to coastal hazards and sea-level rise: Anticipating change, when and how to change pathway

To Err is Human: Pondering the Undoing of Human-Induced Climate Change

In this paper we examine how park and protected area managers and scholars might respond to the attempted undoing of human-induced climate change. Drawing from Michael Lewis’ The Undoing Project (2017), we proceed from the assumption that we humans are prone to make mistakes in our assessments of what is and what is not the case when reaching conclusions about complex environmental problems. We reason further that the consequences of making certain kinds of mistakes should be taken into account when shaping management policy, specifically surrounding climate change. We then illustrate how Type 1 and Type 2 errors might serve as useful lenses to better envision how to manage risk in times of uncertainty by applying them to the real or imagined nature of human-induced climate change. We also consider the likely consequences of making Type 1 and Type 2 errors regarding climate change decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we believe is the preferred error to make when thinking about human-induced climate change with regard to the management of parks and protected areas, as well as the implications for individuals and society at large. In so doing, we turn what is commonly referred to as ‘liberal’ and ‘conservative’ thinking inside out, and leave the reader with the question of just who are the conservatives and who are the liberals when thinking about the prospect of undoing human-induced climate change. Subscribe to JPRA

Values in Time Discounting

Controversies about time discounting loom large in decisions about climate change. Prominently, a particularly controversial debate about time discounting in climate change decision-making has been conducted within climate economics, between the authors of Stern et al. (Stern review on the economics of climate change, 2006) and their critics (most prominently Dasgupta in Comments on the Stern review’s economics of climate change, 2006; Tol in Energy Environ 17(6):977–981, 2006; Weitzman in J Econ Lit XLV:703–724, 2007; Nordhaus in J Econ Lit XLV:686–702, 2007). The article examines the role of values in this debate. Firstly, it is shown that time discounting is a case in which values are key because it is at heart an ethical problem. Secondly, it is argued that time discounting in climate economics is a case of economists making frequent and routine references to ethical values and indeed conduct ethical debates with each other. Thirdly, it is argued that there is evidence for deep and pervasive entanglement between facts and values in the prevalent methodologies for time discounting. Finally, it is argued that this means that economists have given up the ‘value-free ideal’ concerning time discounting, and discussed how the current methodology of time discounting in economics can be improved.

The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making

Downscaled climate data are available at fine spatial scales making them desirable to local climate change practitioners. However, without a description of their uncertainty, practitioners cannot know if they provide quality information. We pose that part of the foundation for the description of uncertainty is an assessment of the ability of the underlying climate model to represent the meteorological or weather-scale processes. Here, we demonstrate an assessment of precipitation processes for the Great Lakes region using the Bias Corrected and Spatially Downscaled (BCSD) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) projections. A major weakness of the underlying models is their inability to simulate the effects of the Great Lakes, which is an important issue for most global climate models. There is also uncertainty among the models in the timing of transition between dominant precipitation processes going from the warm to cool season and vice versa. In addition, warm-season convective precipitation processes very greatly among the models. From the assessment, we discuss how process-based uncertainties in the models are inherited by the downscaled projections and how bias correction increases uncertainty in cases where precipitation processes are not well represented. Implications of these findings are presented for three regional examples: lake-effect snow, the spring seasonal transition, and summertime lake-effect precipitation.

The European Union's role in networks on removal of fossil fuel subsidies and disclosure of climate change information

This article deals with newly emerging international collaborative initiatives around two issues connected to climate change: removal of fossil fuel subsidies and improving climate information disclosure practices in the business sector. While networked initiatives on the gradual removal of fossil fuel subsidies and a multi-actor network on disclosure of climate change information do not explicitly mobilize collective actions around climate change, they supplement and reinforce a wide array of other transnational initiatives and partnerships around climate change mitigation efforts. Analysed networks equip transnational policy processes around the climate change issue, initially formed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's member states, with new policy tools to mitigate human-induced climate change and hugely expand the membership of policy-making at the international level. Newly emerging transnational networks in the area of fossil fuel subsidies removal and improving climate change information disclosure practices in the corporate world also strive for harmonization of policy methods and instruments across international boundaries. The experience of the European Union (EU) in promoting climate change actions among its member states and in sustaining collaboration with private actors can serve as an exemplary and learning tool for transnational policy networks across continents. And the size of the EU's market together with its governance structure provides it with a common legitimate voice at the international arena for climate change decision-making.

Mainstreaming and Beyond: Policy Capacity and Climate Change Decision-Making

Mainstreaming and Beyond: Policy Capacity and Climate Change Decision-Making