Clear-sky Radiative Forcing Research Articles

A colorful look at climate sensitivity

Abstract. The radiative response to warming and to changing concentrations of CO2 is studied in spectral space. If, at a particular wavenumber, the emission temperature of the constituent controlling the emission to space does not change its emission temperature, as is the case when water vapor adopts a fixed relative humidity in the troposphere or for CO2 emissions in the stratosphere, spectral emissions become independent of surface temperature, giving rise to the idea of spectral masking. This way of thinking allows one to derive simple, physically informative, and surprisingly accurate expressions for the clear-sky radiative forcing, the radiative response to warming, and hence climate sensitivity. Extending these concepts to include the effects of clouds leads to the expectation that (i) clouds dampen the clear-sky response to forcing; (ii) diminutive clouds near the surface, which are often thought to be unimportant, may be effective at enhancing the clear-sky sensitivity over deep moist tropical boundary layers; (iii) even small changes in high clouds over deep moist regions in the tropics make these regions radiatively more responsive to warming than previously believed; and (iv) spectral masking by clouds may contribute substantially to polar amplification. The analysis demonstrates that the net effect of clouds on warming is ambiguous, if not moderating, justifying the assertion that the clear-sky (fixed relative humidity) climate sensitivity – which, after accounting for surface albedo feedbacks, we estimate to be about 3 K – provides a reasonable prior for Bayesian updates accounting for how clouds are distributed, how they might change, and deviations associated with changes in relative humidity with temperature. These effects are best assessed by quantifying the distribution of clouds and water vapor and how they change in temperature rather than geographic space.

Radiative impacts of the Australian bushfires 2019–2020 – Part 1: Large-scale radiative forcing

Abstract. As a consequence of extreme heat and drought, record-breaking wildfires developed and ravaged south-eastern Australia during the fire season 2019–2020. The fire strength reached its paroxysmal phase at the turn of the year 2019–2020. During this phase, pyrocumulonimbus clouds (pyroCb) developed and injected biomass burning aerosols and gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The UTLS aerosol layer was massively perturbed by these fires, with aerosol extinction increased by a factor of 3 in the visible spectral range in the Southern Hemisphere, with respect to a background atmosphere, and stratospheric aerosol optical depth reaching values as large as 0.015 in February 2020. Using the best available description of this event by observations, we estimate the radiative forcing (RF) of such perturbations of the Southern Hemispheric aerosol layer. We use offline radiative transfer modelling driven by observed information of the aerosol extinction perturbation and its spectral variability obtained from limb satellite measurements. Based on hypotheses on the absorptivity and the angular scattering properties of the aerosol layer, the regional (at three latitude bands in the Southern Hemisphere) clear-sky TOA (top-of-atmosphere) RF is found varying from small positive values to relatively large negative values (up to −2.0 W m−2), and the regional clear-sky surface RF is found to be consistently negative and reaching large values (up to −4.5 W m−2). We argue that clear-sky positive values are unlikely for this event, if the ageing/mixing of the biomass burning plume is mirrored by the evolution of its optical properties. Our best estimate for the area-weighted global-equivalent clear-sky RF is -0.35±0.21 (TOA RF) and -0.94±0.26 W m−2 (surface RF), thus the strongest documented for a fire event and of comparable magnitude with the strongest volcanic eruptions of the post-Pinatubo era. The surplus of RF at the surface, with respect to TOA, is due to absorption within the plume that has contributed to the generation of ascending smoke vortices in the stratosphere. Highly reflective underlying surfaces, like clouds, can nevertheless swap negative to positive TOA RF, with global average RF as high as +1.0 W m−2 assuming highly absorbing particles.

Insect Herbivory Caused Plant Stress Emissions Increases the Negative Radiative Forcing of Aerosols.

Plant stress in a changing climate is predicted to increase plant volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and thus can affect the formed secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations, which in turn affect the radiative properties of clouds and aerosol. However, global aerosol‐climate models do not usually consider plant stress induced VOCs in their emission schemes. In this study, we modified the monoterpene emission factors in biogenic emission model to simulate biotic stress caused by insect herbivory on needleleaf evergreen boreal and broadleaf deciduous boreal trees and studied the consequent effects on SOA formation, aerosol‐cloud interactions as well as direct radiative effects of formed SOA. Simulations were done altering the fraction of stressed and healthy trees in the latest version of ECHAM‐HAMMOZ (ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3‐MOZ1.0) global aerosol‐climate model. Our simulations showed that increasing the extent of stress to the aforementioned tree types, substantially increased the SOA burden especially over the areas where these trees are located. This indicates that increased VOC emissions due to increasing stress enhance the SOA formation via oxidation of VOCs to low VOCs. In addition, cloud droplet number concentration at the cloud top increased with increasing extent of biotic stress. This indicates that as SOA formation increases, it further enhances the number of particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei. The increase in SOA formation also decreased both all‐sky and clear‐sky radiative forcing. This was due to a shift in particle size distributions that enhanced aerosol reflecting and scattering of incoming solar radiation.

Exploring accumulation-mode H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> versus SO<sub>2</sub> stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in a sectional aerosol–chemistry–climate model

Abstract. Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering (SSG) could contribute to avoiding some of the adverse impacts of climate change. We used the SOCOL-AER global aerosol–chemistry–climate model to investigate 21 different SSG scenarios, each with 1.83 Mt S yr−1 injected either in the form of accumulation-mode H2SO4 droplets (AM H2SO4), gas-phase SO2 or as combinations of both. For most scenarios, the sulfur was continuously emitted at an altitude of 50 hPa (≈20 km) in the tropics and subtropics. We assumed emissions to be zonally and latitudinally symmetric around the Equator. The spread of emissions ranged from 3.75∘ S–3.75∘ N to 30∘ S–30∘ N. In the SO2 emission scenarios, continuous production of tiny nucleation-mode particles results in increased coagulation, which together with gaseous H2SO4 condensation, produces coarse-mode particles. These large particles are less effective for backscattering solar radiation and have a shorter stratospheric residence time than AM H2SO4 particles. On average, the stratospheric aerosol burden and corresponding all-sky shortwave radiative forcing for the AM H2SO4 scenarios are about 37 % larger than for the SO2 scenarios. The simulated stratospheric aerosol burdens show a weak dependence on the latitudinal spread of emissions. Emitting at 30∘ N–30∘ S instead of 10∘ N–10∘ S only decreases stratospheric burdens by about 10 %. This is because a decrease in coagulation and the resulting smaller particle size is roughly balanced by faster removal through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport via tropopause folds. Increasing the injection altitude is also ineffective, although it generates a larger stratospheric burden, because enhanced condensation and/or coagulation leads to larger particles, which are less effective scatterers. In the case of gaseous SO2 emissions, limiting the sulfur injections spatially and temporally in the form of point and pulsed emissions reduces the total global annual nucleation, leading to less coagulation and thus smaller particles with increased stratospheric residence times. Pulse or point emissions of AM H2SO4 have the opposite effect: they decrease the stratospheric aerosol burden by increasing coagulation and only slightly decrease clear-sky radiative forcing. This study shows that direct emission of AM H2SO4 results in higher radiative forcing for the same sulfur equivalent mass injection strength than SO2 emissions, and that the sensitivity to different injection strategies varies for different forms of injected sulfur.

Aerosol Characteristics over the Northwestern Indo-Gangetic Plain: Clear-Sky Radiative Forcing of Composite and Black Carbon Aerosol

The present study examines the aerosol characteristics over Patiala in northwestern India from October 2013 to June 2014. The average mass concentration of the total suspended particulates (TSP) varied from 117 to 301 µg m–3, with PM10 accounting for ~63–83% from October to February (P1) and decreasing to less than ~40% from March to June (P2). The aerosol optical depth (AOD500) exhibited its highest values during October (0.818) and its lowest during April (0.332), with the wavelength dependence differing significantly on a temporal scale. The Ångstrom exponent (α380-870) values indicated a relatively high quantity of fine-mode particles over the study region during P1 as compared to P2, which is consistent with the PM measurements. The average monthly mass concentration of the climate forcing agent black carbon (BC) varied from 2.4 to 12 µg m–3, with the highest mass concentration in December and the lowest in June. The average monthly single scattering albedo (SSA500) derived from the OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) model varied from 0.890 to 0.947, with lower values during P1 than P2. The average monthly clear-sky direct atmospheric aerosol radiative forcing (ATM ARF) estimated by the SBDART (Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer) model ranged between +12 and +36 Wm–2 over the study region. Even though the mass fraction of BC averaged over the study period was only 2.4% of the total mass of the composite aerosol, its contribution to net ATM ARF was found to be significant (> 60%), indicating that BC contributes significantly to warming on a regional scale. These results improve our understanding of the impact of BC and composite aerosol on the earth’s radiation budget and hence on regional climate.

Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

Atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features in the temporal trajectory of atmospheric CH4 are expected to perturb the surface energy balance through radiative forcing, largely due to the infrared radiative absorption features of CH4. However, to date this has been determined strictly through radiative transfer calculations. Here, we present a quantified observation of the time series of clear-sky radiative forcing by CH4 at the surface from 2002 to 2012 at a single site derived from spectroscopic measurements along with line-by-line calculations using ancillary data. There was no significant trend in CH4 forcing between 2002 and 2006, but since then, the trend in forcing was 0.026 ± 0.006 (99.7% CI) W m2 yr−1. The seasonal-cycle amplitude and secular trends in observed forcing are influenced by a corresponding seasonal cycle and trend in atmospheric CH4. However, we find that we must account for the overlapping absorption effects of atmospheric water vapour (H2O) and CH4 to explain the observations fully. Thus, the determination of CH4 radiative forcing requires accurate observations of both the spatiotemporal distribution of CH4 and the vertically resolved trends in H2O. Observations of the radiative forcing from methane at the Earth’s surface are influenced by absorption effects from water vapour, according to spectroscopic measurements and line-by-line calculations.

An offline constrained data assimilation technique for aerosols: Improving GCM simulations over South Asia using observations from two satellite sensors

Aerosol properties simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) exhibit large uncertainties due to biases in model processes and inaccuracies in aerosol emission inputs. In this work, we propose an offline, constrained optimization based procedure to improve these simulations by assimilating them with observational data. The proposed approach explicitly incorporates the non-negativity constraint on the aerosol optical depth (AOD) which is a key metric to quantify aerosol distributions. The resulting optimization problem is quadratic programming in nature and can be easily solved by available optimization routines. The utility of the approach is demonstrated by performing offline assimilation of GCM simulated aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing over South Asia (40–120 E, 5–40 N), with satellite AOD measurements from two sensors, namely Moderate Resolution Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MODIS) and Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Uncertainty in observational data used in the assimilation is computed by developing different error bands around regional AOD observations, based on their quality assurance flags. The assimilation, evaluated on monthly and daily scales, compares well with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations as determined by goodness of fit statistics. Assimilation increased both model predicted atmospheric absorption and clear sky radiative forcing by factors consistent with recent estimates in literature. Thus, the constrained assimilation algorithm helps in systematically reducing uncertainties in aerosol simulations.

Radiative forcing by aerosols as derived from the AeroCom present-day and pre-industrial simulations

Abstract. Nine different global models with detailed aerosol modules have independently produced instantaneous direct radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols. The anthropogenic impact is derived from the difference of two model simulations with prescribed aerosol emissions, one for present-day and one for pre-industrial conditions. The difference in the solar energy budget at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) yields a new harmonized estimate for the aerosol direct radiative forcing (RF) under all-sky conditions. On a global annual basis RF is −0.22 Wm−2, ranging from +0.04 to −0.41 Wm−2, with a standard deviation of ±0.16 Wm−2. Anthropogenic nitrate and dust are not included in this estimate. No model shows a significant positive all-sky RF. The corresponding clear-sky RF is −0.68 Wm−2. The cloud-sky RF was derived based on all-sky and clear-sky RF and modelled cloud cover. It was significantly different from zero and ranged between −0.16 and +0.34 Wm−2. A sensitivity analysis shows that the total aerosol RF is influenced by considerable diversity in simulated residence times, mass extinction coefficients and most importantly forcing efficiencies (forcing per unit optical depth). The clear-sky forcing efficiency (forcing per unit optical depth) has diversity comparable to that for the all-sky/ clear-sky forcing ratio. While the diversity in clear-sky forcing efficiency is impacted by factors such as aerosol absorption, size, and surface albedo, we can show that the all-sky/clear-sky forcing ratio is important because all-sky forcing estimates require proper representation of cloud fields and the correct relative altitude placement between absorbing aerosol and clouds. The analysis of the sulphate RF shows that long sulphate residence times are compensated by low mass extinction coefficients and vice versa. This is explained by more sulphate particle humidity growth and thus higher extinction in those models where short-lived sulphate is present at lower altitude and vice versa. Solar atmospheric forcing within the atmospheric column is estimated at +0.82±0.17 Wm−2. The local annual average maxima of atmospheric forcing exceed +5 Wm−2 confirming the regional character of aerosol impacts on climate. The annual average surface forcing is −1.02±0.23 Wm−2. With the current uncertainties in the modelling of the radiative forcing due to the direct aerosol effect we show here that an estimate from one model is not sufficient but a combination of several model estimates is necessary to provide a mean and to explore the uncertainty.

A Comparison of Model- and Satellite-Derived Aerosol Optical Depth and Reflectivity

The determination of an accurate quantitative understanding of the role of tropospheric aerosols in the earth's radiation budget is extremely important because forcing by anthropogenic aerosols presently represents one of the most uncertain aspects of climate models. Here the authors present a systematic comparison of three different analyses of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-measured radiances with optical depths derived from six different models. Also compared are the model-derived clear-sky reflected shortwave radiation with satellite-measured reflectivities derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite. The three different satellite-derived optical depths differ by between −0.10 and 0.07 optical depth units in comparison to the average of the three analyses depending on latitude and month, but the general features of the retrievals are similar. The models differ by between −0.09 and +0.16 optical depth units from the average of the models. Differences between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses range over −0.11 to +0.05 optical depth units. These differences are significant since the annual average clear-sky radiative forcing associated with the difference between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses ranges between −3.9 and 0.7 W m−2 depending on latitude and is −1.7 W m−2 on a global average annual basis. Variations in the source strengths of dimethylsulfide-derived aerosols and sea salt aerosols can explain differences between the models, and between the models and satellite retrievals of up to 0.2 optical depth units. The comparison of model-generated reflected shortwave radiation and ERBE-measured shortwave radiation is similar in character as a function of latitude to the analysis of modeled and satellite-retrieved optical depths, but the differences between the modeled clear-sky reflected flux and the ERBE clear-sky reflected flux is generally larger than that inferred from the difference between the models and the AVHRR optical depths, especially at high latitudes. The difference between the mean of the models and the ERBE-analyzed clear-sky flux is 1.6 W m−2. The overall comparison indicates that the model-generated aerosol optical depth is systematically lower than that inferred from measurements between the latitudes of 10° and 30°S. It is not likely that the shortfall is due to small values of the sea salt optical depth because increases in this component would create modeled optical depths that are larger than those from satellites in the region north of 30°N and near 50°S. Instead, the source strengths for DMS and biomass aerosols in the models may be too low. Firm conclusions, however, will require better retrieval procedures for the satellites, including better cloud screening procedures, further improvement of the model's treatment of aerosol transport and removal, and a better determination of aerosol source strengths.