Chinese Imports Research Articles

Trade war effects: evidence from sectors of energy and resources in Africa

The US government proposes to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to significant concerns over the Trade War between the US and China. The article evaluates and examines the market responses of companies in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. Moreover, this paper fills the gap in literature about deglobalization in Energy and Resources Sectors in Africa. This paper proves the idea that US companies that are more dependent on exports and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns, and, at the same time, higher default risks in the short time aspect. The article found Trade War effects in energy and resources companies in Africa in the last years: on ownership rank, on credit country rank, on default risks and on their profitability. The paper also demonstrates that companies’ indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output links affects their responses to news on the subject matter. These findings suggest that the state of US-China trade of energy and resources is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that was in the beginning of Trade War with China. As a result of the Trade War, the real changes in stock prices of China companies (-0.07%) in energy and resource sectors is less than the same changes in US companies in Africa (-0.32%) in 2019. Also, the probability of default of Chinese companies (average default probability changed in -0.08%) in energy and resource sectors changed less than the same rank of US companies in Africa (average default probability changed by -0.84%).

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

AbstractWe exploit differences across U.S. states' exposure to trade to study the effects of changes in the exchange rate on economic activity. Across states, trade‐weighted exchange rate depreciations are associated with increased state exports, reduced state unemployment, and higher state hours worked. The effects are particularly strong during periods of economic slack. A multiregion model with interstate trade and labor flows, calibrated to match state‐level trade data and migration flows, replicates the empirical relationship between exchange rates and unemployment. The high degree of interstate trade plays an important role in transmitting shocks across states in the first year, whereas interstate migration shapes cross‐sectional patterns in later years. We use the model to study the regional effects of tariffs in the United States. The model suggests that a 25% Chinese import tariff on U.S. goods would be felt throughout the United States, even in states with small direct linkages to China, raising unemployment rates by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points in the short run.

Effects of Chinese Import Competition on Plant Productivity and Product Scope: Evidence from India

How trade shocks emanating from a low-wage country affect the productivity of manufacturing plants in other low-wage countries has been little researched. This paper investigates the impact of Chinese import competition on the performance of Indian manufacturing sector through the lens of theoretical models of multiple-product firms using plant-level ASI panel data from 1998 to 2009. Increased import competition from China leads to an improvement in revenue productivity, and a reduction in product scope. A 10 percentage point increase in exposure to Chinese imports leads to a 3.8 percent increase in revenue productivity of large plants and a 1 percent decrease in the number of products within-plant. However, the impact on selection of products within-plant is not symmetric. The evidence suggests that product rationalization is one of the key channels through which trade shocks can affect plant productivity. Although import competition from high-wage countries has no statistically significant impact on plant performance or product scope, plant product-level adjustment shows that import competition shocks from high-wage countries and China have similar impact on selection of products within-plant.

Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad

The increasing range and quality of China's exports is a major development internationally with potentially far‐reaching effects. In this paper, on top of the direct labour market effects of imports from China studied in previous research, we also measure the indirect effects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our findings, based on matched employer–employee data of Portugal covering the period 1991–2008, indicate that workers’ earnings and employment are significantly negatively affected by China's competition, but only through the indirect ‘market‐stealing’ channel. In contrast to earlier evidence, the direct effects of Chinese imports are mostly non‐significant. The results are robust to a number of checks and also highlight particular groups more affected by indirect competition, including women, older and less educated workers, and workers in larger, older and domestic firms.

The end of the trade war? Effects of tariff exclusions on U.S. forest products in China

China's importance to the U.S. forestry sector and the disruptive effect of retaliatory tariffs raises questions about how U.S. forest products compete in the Chinese market. The goal of this study was to estimate China's lumber and log import demand and assess how tariffs affect the competitiveness of U.S. products compared to other exporting countries. Using a dynamic framework, we estimated import demand elasticities by exporting country and conducted simulations of China's new tariff exclusion policy for U.S. products. Results indicated that Chinese importers are highly sensitive to U.S. lumber and log prices, which could explain the significant decline in U.S. exports to China when the retaliatory tariffs were imposed. Projections suggest that tariff elimination should benefit U.S. lumber and log exports to China, primarily at the expense of Russian lumber. However, results indicate that China's new tariff exclusion policy may not be enough to get U.S. forest products back to pre-trade war levels.

A Study on the Pass-Through Rate of the Exchange Rate on the Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Import Price in China

The Chinese liquid natural gas (LNG) import price has been unstable because the stability of LNG import prices is related to changes in the exchange rates. This paper analyzes the pass-through rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Japanese Yen (JPY) on the Chinese LNG import price. The Time-Varying Parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is adopted to verify the pass-through rate of the exchange rates on the LNG import price using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Since September 2005, the JPY pass-through rate on the Chinese LNG import price has been decreasing while that of the CNY has been increasing. Notably, the pass-through rate of CNY began to exceed that of JPY after 2008. Moreover, since 2005, the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price became longer compared to JPY. If any new currency reform of the CNY is implemented in the future, then the impact of JPY on the Chinese LNG import price could be reduced and the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price could become longer. Therefore, the fluctuation of the CNY is becoming an important factor in understanding the movements of the Chinese LNG import price. This implies the significance of considering the effect of the exchange rate on an energy market when the market is influenced by a monetary reform of the importing country.

“We Deserve Better”: Ideologies of Deservingness and Status in the Interpretation of Chinese Goods in an Iranian Bazaar

This article argues that even as Chinese imports occupy an increasingly large percentage of the space in Mashhad’s bazaars and marketplaces, such goods are interpreted not only as being of poor quality but, critically, as insufficiently “worthy” of the Iranian middle class who positioned themselves as “deserving better.” In attempting to assess why this is the case, the article suggests that such framing both reveals much of, and requires us to consider, the pivotal role of status in Iran. It holds that this concern for status is expressed at multiple levels: that of the family, as a class, and finally, of the nation. At each of these levels of expression, it is possible to trace different post-revolutionary social phenomena. These include the reification of the family as a moral unit, major shifts in the demographics of education and urbanization, the rise of a consumer culture and the perilous decline of the fortunes of the middle class, and, finally, imaginings of national exceptionalism. This article then uses such readings of Chinese goods as a window into middle class ideologies of worth and deservingness.

Trade models and macroeconomics

This paper discusses some macro links that are missing from trade models. A multicountry macroeconometric model is used to analyze the effects on the United States of increased import competition from China, an experiment that is common in the recent trade literature. In the macro story a fall in Chinese export prices is stimulative. Domestic prices fall, which increases real wage rates and real wealth, which increases household expenditures. Trade models do not have these channels, and they likely overestimate the negative effects or underestimate the positive effects on total output and employment from increased Chinese import competition. They lack some important aggregate demand channels.

US–China Relations: Nationalism, the Trade War, and COVID-19

The trade war between the USA and China has shocked many across the world. A disruption to the interdependence of the two largest economies seemed unfathomable. However, in an effort to thwart China’s economic practices and boost the US economy, President Trump’s administration levied tariffs on Chinese imports shortly after taking office, moving US foreign economic policy from liberalism, practiced for decades, to protectionism. China has retaliated, and the trade war continues today. With conceptual insights from the nationalism literature, we explore the nationalist roots of the trade war from both the US and Chinese perspectives. In the USA, the Trump administration’s plan to achieve energy autonomy, decrease reliance on foreign resources, and reinvigorate the manufacturing sector has led to protectionist policies, the othering of China, and hence the trade war. Although reluctant to enter the conflict, China has rebuffed the USA, resisting and counterattacking US actions, owing to a long-felt sense of persecution in the global space and an eagerness to participate fully, and lead in some issue areas, in international affairs. The conflict continues into the COVID-19 era, marked by US scapegoating of China and hits to economic performance. Until both sides are convinced they have achieved their goals, or the USA undergoes an administration change, the conflict will likely continue.

Does China’s Belt and Road Initiative Threaten Food Security in Central Asia?

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) needs little introduction; the infrastructure investment will reconfigure development in Central Asia. As its origin story and initial encounter, Central Asia offers a prismatic lens to delve into the vital impacts and significant changes wrought by the BRI. In the dryland region, the BRI impact on watersheds and agriculture is a critical challenge with direct implications for food security. Framed by diverse research sources, we utilized spatial datasets from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative and the World Bank to explore the intersection of food production, water and development. Investigation evaluates the possible trade-offs that Chinese infrastructure investment can have on the communities and environment of Central Asia. The findings identify more than 15,000 km of rail and 20,000 km of roads linked to the BRI crisscrossing the region in 2018. Whilst these transport corridors have improved connectivity, many of these rails and roads traverse important agricultural and water zones, creating undetermined risks and opportunities. Land use change was examined within a 10-km buffer around BRI roads and rails from 2008 to 2018. Railways increased by 23% during this time, yet irrigated and rainfed agriculture decreased whilst urban areas markedly expanded. Contextual research identifies how Chinese policies may encourage agribusiness investment for food exports as possible disruptions to national and regional food supply. However, to date Central Asia provides <1% of Chinese agricultural imports. In fact, Afghanistan is the region’s dominant export market, tripling agricultural imports >300% in this time. Similarly, five times more livestock are traded within the region than to China. Evaluating infrastructure change is essential to understand BRI impacts on environments and societies, with the food-water nexus a particular concern in Central Asia. Limited Chinese imports of Central Asian agriculture suggests the region’s food security will not be significantly altered by the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Effects of Chinese Imports on Female Workers in the Brazilian Manufacturing Sector

ABSTRACT This study uses the Becker’s (1957) taste-based discrimination model to analyse the effects of import penetration from China and from the Rest of the World (ROW) on the share of female workers and on the male-female wage gap in the manufacturing sector of Brazil. Using 2000-2012 data from the Brazilian Censuses and Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, this paper finds no effect of the industry-level exports share on these outcomes. The Chinese import penetration increased the female share and narrowed the male-female wage gap except for college educated workers. The ROW import penetration raised the female share among workers with college degrees, but widened the wage gap except for those with college degrees. These effects were modified with the implementation of the Nova Matriz Econômica (NME) policy in 2008. During the post-NME regime, Chinese import penetration reduced the female share across all workers’ groups, while the negative effects of ROW increased on the female share of all groups and on the wage gap in the unskilled-labour intensive industries except for the workers with college degrees. Hence, the effects of the heightened trade-induced competition on workers’ discrimination depends on the type and source of imports, the education of workers, and the domestic policies, specifically on wages and sectoral subsidies.

Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data

We use Chinese imports, measured as reported exports of trading partners, as a benchmark to gauge the accuracy of alternative Chinese indicators (including GDP) of fluctuations in economic activity. Externally-reported imports are likely to be relatively well-measured and free from domestic manipulation. Using principal components, we derive activity indices from a wide range of indicators. We choose a preferred index of eight non-GDP indicators based on their fit to Chinese imports, which we call the China Cyclical Activity Tracker (or C-CAT). We find that Chinese statistics have broadly become more reliable in measuring cyclical fluctuations over time. However, measured GDP has been excessively smooth since 2013, and adds little information relative to combinations of other indicators.

미ㆍ중 간 기술패권 경쟁과 시사점 (U.S.-China Technological Rivalry and Its Implications for Korea)

미ㆍ중 간 기술패권 경쟁과 시사점 (U.S.-China Technological Rivalry and Its Implications for Korea)

Understanding the Economic and Political Effects of Trump's China Tariffs

Although President Trump has persistently claimed that China is paying billions of dollars in tariffs imposed on Chinese imports to the United States, empirical evidence indicates that U.S. consumers are bearing the cost of the tariffs: $51 billion in increased prices and a net loss of $7.3 billion to the U.S. economy. The unilateral power-based approach to trade used by the Trump Administration has also resulted in unexpected economic and political costs in key Midwestern states that helped propel Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2016. These costs have led to reverses for the Trump Administration in the mid-term elections of 2018 and could ensue in further electoral losses. As both political parties currently hold little affection for China, the United States could continue to use tariffs against China and other countries as trade policy no matter which party controls the U.S. presidency. For these reasons, a study of how to most effectively use a power-based approach to trade is both useful and timely. This study indicates that a power-based approach can be used most effectively against countries that lack either the economic power or the political will to engage the United States in a prolonged trade standoff. While most nations appear to fall into one or both of these categories, China is not one of them. China has the economic power to fight a trade war and China believes that it must stand up to the United States. When used against China, the power-based approach carries greater risks because its economic and political effects are difficult to predict and because this approach is inherently more uncertain than the cooperative approach of the World Trade Organization that the United States has rejected. Using a power-based approach against China could backfire because China has the economic power and political will to endure a prolonged battle and play a dangerous game of mutual pain and destruction with the United States.

Do firm boundaries matter? The impact of Chinese imports on US conglomerates

The purpose of this paper is to use China’s World Trade Organization accession as a quasi-natural experiment and examine whether conglomeration affects firmss’ ability to respond to a significant increase in competitive pressure. Conglomerate segments have higher sales growth and higher profitability than singlesegment firms, when they face intensified import competition. Conglomerates’ outperformance is not observed when the markets in which segments operate already have high product market competition. Overall, conglomeration encourages competitiveness, and internal resources are allocated to relatively competitive segments.

Replication Files for "On `Trade Induced Technical Change: The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity'''"

Replication Files for "On `Trade Induced Technical Change: The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity'''"

On ``Trade Induced Technical Change: The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity''

On ``Trade Induced Technical Change: The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity''

Trapped Factors and China’s Impact on Global Growth

AbstractAfter a recent increase in Chinese import competition, European firms increased innovation. We present and rationalise these patterns using ‘trapped factors’ at the micro level within a stylised equilibrium model of product-cycle trade and growth. Trade integration of the magnitude observed between the OECD and low-wage nations as a whole can considerably increase the long-run growth rate and welfare. In the short run exposed firms devote trapped factors to increased innovation, leading both to increased innovation at these individual firms as well as to a small amount of extra transitional growth overall. China accounts for half of the dynamic trade gains.

New Technologies, Automation, and Labor Markets

This paper demonstrates the causal effect of new technologies on the U.S. labor market. I employ information and communications technology, and robot penetration, as two proxy for new technologies to assess the effect of automation on 795 occupations across 450 industries between 2004 and 2016. New technologies reduce the annual growth rate of occupation at risk of automation by 1.8–2.8% relative to risk-less occupations. I demonstrate causality using the differential effect of technology capital, instrumented by E.U. capital, on occupations with different risks of automation. Sector-year dummies control for Chinese and Mexican imports, the Great Recession, and conventional capital. Trade evidence reassures my results.

China as an Alternative Power in Middle East: Its Outcomes for the Region's Future

This research considers China's Middle East policies and commitments, including international alliances, regional disputes, and trade ties. It compiles information on arms transfers to the Middle East, as well as Chinese imports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the region. Moreover, the study applies the power transition theory to justify the choice of Middle Eastern states that how external circumstances forced them to look beyond the American umbrella to protect the sovereignty and economic interest. Besides, the primary data has mostly been incorporated from the official files, speeches and statements of the Chinese president and Middle East diplomats and policymakers. Overall, this paper examines China's overall military, economic, and foreign footprint, shedding light on the state's current and potential involvement in the Middle East.