Chinese Census Data Research Articles

ObjectiveThis population-based study investigated longitudinal changes in the prevalence and genotype distribution of HPV across the pre-pandemic (2017-2019), pandemic (2020-2022), and post-pandemic (2023-2024) periods in Western China.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of 129,585 women, stratified into three chronological cohorts: pre-pandemic (n=40,044), pandemic (n=43,717), and post-pandemic (n=45,824) cohorts. Cervicovaginal specimens were analyzed via real-time PCR-based genotyping to detect 16 high-risk and 7 low-risk genotypes. Age-specific prevalence patterns were evaluated across six demographic strata (<20 to ≥60 years). Age-standardized prevalence rates were calculated using 2020 Chinese census data as a reference population.ResultsThe total HPV prevalence decreased from 31.59% before the pandemic to 23.28% during the pandemic, stabilizing at 21.45% after the pandemic. Nonvaccine-targeted HR-HPV subtypes (HPV-52, HPV-58) maintained persistent dominance across all phases, with the prevalence of HPV-52 decreasing from 6.00% before the pandemic to 3.00% after the pandemic. Adolescents (<20 years) presented the lowest infection rates, whereas peak rates were reported for women aged 40-49 years.ConclusionsThe sustained reduction in total HPV prevalence is potentially associated with pandemic-related behavioral modifications and healthcare disruptions. The persistent circulation of nonvaccine-targeted subtypes highlights gaps in current prevention strategies. These findings emphasize the need for comprehensive surveillance integrating catch-up screening and genotype-specific vaccine development to address post-pandemic HPV transmission dynamics.

The relationship between the geographic environment and human health has been a long-standing focus of scientific inquiry. Sn as an essential trace element for the human body, play vital roles in individual health and may influence longevity. However, the extent to which the statistical characteristics of population longevity are associated with elemental geochemical background values at a regional scale remains an important question. Based on the geochemical survey data of Yunnan Province and Chinese census data, the article utilizes Arcgis spatial analysis and mathematical statistics to explore the relationship between ω(Sn) and regional longevity level. The results of the study show that: (1) There is a close correlation between ω(Sn) and regional longevity levels. Within Yunnan Province, regions with high ω(Sn) have higher levels of longevity index and Ultra-octogenarian Index. (2) Spearman’s correlation coefficient shows that ω(Sn) is significantly positively (P < 0.01) correlated with both the longevity index and the Ultra-octogenarian Index; Linear regression further reveals that ω(Sn) always has a significant positive influence on the longevity index. For the Ultra-octogenarian Index, although the strength of the influence of ω(Sn) is not as significant as that of the longevity index, its influence on the healthy longevity of the population cannot be ignored. At the county scale in Yunnan Province, there is a significant positive correlation between ω(Sn) and longevity index, which may be related to the exposure of Sn in the natural environmental background into the human body and thus affecting the incidence of cancer, but the biogeochemical cycling mechanism of its association with longevity still needs to be further investigated.

ABSTRACTAs China's economy advances toward high‐quality development, how to promote the rational spatial distribution of skilled labor to achieve sustainable regional economic growth has become an urgent issue. This study utilizes microdata from the 2000–2015 Chinese census and tariff data from China covering the same period to empirically regress input tariff cuts on changes in the proportion of skilled labor in cities. The results show that for every 1% decrease in input tariffs, the proportion of skilled labor in cities increases by 0.78%, accounting for 15.22% of the spatial distribution of skilled labor. Mechanism analysis indicates that input tariff cuts facilitate technological progress and subsequently increase skilled labor demand. From an equilibrium perspective, increased skilled labor demand attracts skilled worker inflows, thereby increasing the proportion of skilled labor in cities. Additionally, input tariff cuts have a more significant impact on cities with low trade costs, a high historical proportion of skilled labor, and high labor market flexibility. These findings provide favorable evidence of the micro‐level impact of input tariff cuts on regional skilled labor markets, offering important policy insights into how developing countries similar to China can optimize the spatial distribution of skilled labor through input tariffs.

A thermoregulation model based on the physical and physiological characteristics of Chinese elderly

In this article, I develop and implement the multiscale geographically weighted negative binomial (MGWNB) model, extending the spatially weighted interaction models by integrating a multiscale framework. This model effectively tackles the multiscale nonstationarity and overdispersion issues found in spatial interaction models. By comparing it with multiscale geographically weighted Poisson regression using simulated data, I demonstrate its superior performance in several aspects, including its capability to estimate the scale of processes, its effectiveness in capturing the spatial heterogeneity, and its ability to produce a better goodness of fit. The application of MGWNB in interprovincial population migration in China, using 2020 Chinese census data, also demonstrates its effectiveness and efficiency, revealing strong multiscale spatial heterogeneity in the migration patterns.

Input-Output (IO) data describing supply-demand relationships between buyers and sellers for goods and services within an economy have been used not only in economics but also in scientific, environmental, and interdisciplinary research. However, most conventional IO data are highly aggregated, resulting in challenges for researchers and practitioners who face complex issues in large countries such as China, where firms within the same IO sector may have significant differences in technologies across subnational regions and different ownerships. This paper is the first attempt to compile China’s interprovincial IO (IPIO) tables with separate information for mainland China-, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan-, and foreign-owned firms inside each province/industry pair. To do this, we collect relevant Chinese economic census data, firm surveys, product level Custom trade statistics, and firm value-added tax invoices and consistently integrate them into a 42-sector, 31-province IO account covering 5 benchmark years between 1997–2017. This work provides a solid foundation for a diverse range of innovative IO-based research in which firm heterogeneity information about location and ownership matters.

Many studies showed that marrying younger is associated with a higher risk of divorce. We investigate the causal effect of marrying at an earlier age on women’s divorce risk. We exploit the introduction of the 1981 reform in China, which facilitated legal marriage for urban women younger than 25 years old, using the Chinese Census data. We show that the reform generated a kink in the mean age at marriage for women, which we use in a fuzzy regression kink design (RKD) to assess the causal effect of marrying younger on the probability of divorce. First, we confirm in our data the existence of a negative (in fact, a U-shaped) association between age at marriage and divorce, as commonly observed in previous studies from the USA. Then, we show that this association disappears in our analyses based on RKD. This finding suggests that the well-documented association between early marriage and divorce is in fact attributable to unobservable factors driving both marriage timing and the likelihood of divorce. We discuss the implications.

Objective: To estimate the risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) death attributed to insufficient whole grain intake in seven regions of China from 2005 to 2018. Methods: Based on China National Nutrition and Health Surveys and China Adult Chronic Disease and Nutrition Surveillance, ordinary Kriging method and locally weighted regression were used to estimate the level of whole grain intake of Chinese residents from 2005 to 2018. Based on the results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 and Chronic Diseases Risk Factors Surveillance in China, we calculated the population attributable fraction (PAF), attributable death number and attributable mortality rate of T2DM due to insufficient whole grain intake in people aged ≥20 years in different regions of China, and we used the 2010 Chinese census data to compare the changes in T2DM deaths attributed to insufficient intake of whole grains in seven regions of China. Results: The whole grain intake levels of Chinese people over 20 years old in 2002, 2010 and 2015 were 19.0 g/d, 14.3 g/d and 19.8 g/d, respectively. The estimated overall whole grain intake level was 20.1 g/d in Chinese residents in 2018, and the intake level was 19.4 g/d in men and 20.8 g/d in women. Among the seven regions, the intake level was highest in northern China (47.4 g/d) and lowest in southwestern China (6.0 g/d). In 2018, the PAF was lowest in northern China (12.8%) and highest in southwestern China (19.3%). From 2005 to 2018, the PAF varied in the seven regions, and the PAF in northeastern China fluctuated around 18.5%. Other regions showed downward trends, especially in northern China and northwestern China, decreased by 26.4% and 21.2%, respectively. Over the past 14 years, the number of attributable deaths in the seven regions showed upward trends, with the highest annual average growth rate of 6.7% in southern China and the lowest annual average growth rate of 2.4% in northern China. In 2018, the standardized T2DM mortality rate attributed to insufficient whole grain intake in China was 3.13/100 000, and the attributable mortality was 3.21/100 000 in men and 3.05/100 000 in women. The standardized attributable mortality rate was highest in southwestern China (3.97/100 000) and lowest in northern China (1.78/100 000). From 2005 to 2018, the standardized attributable mortality rate increased by 11.5% in men and decreased by 8.1% in women. The standardized attributable mortality rate in southwestern, southern and central China increased by 23.7%, 21.3% and 4.2%, respectively. The standardized attributable mortality rate in northern, northwestern, eastern and northeastern China decreased by 20.9%, 11.0%, 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively. Conclusion: The whole grain intake level of Chinese residents was low, and the whole grain intake of residents in all seven regions should be increased, especially in the southwest, and men should have more whole grain intake than women to reduce the death risk in patients with T2DM.

Natural resource dependence and urban shrinkage: The role of human capital accumulation

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a rare neurological disease addressed by only few epidemiological studies in China. This population-based study aimed to estimate the prevalence of MS in China by using national medical insurance databases. Data from the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance database and the Urban Residence Basic Medical Insurance database, which were collected during 2012 to 2016 and included approximately 0.20 billion residents in six provinces, were used in this population-based study. The prevalent patients with MS were identified via diagnostic text or disease codes. The crude prevalence in 2016 was 2.44 per 100,000 population (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.18-2.72), with the prevalence in females being higher than that in males. The standardized prevalence (based on 2010 Chinese census data) was 2.29 (95% CI 2.21-2.38). The prevalence in both sexes in 2016 increased up to the age range of 30-34 years. Subsequently, the female prevalence declined with increasing age, but male prevalence stabilized with increasing age. During the 5-year time period, prevalence ranged from 2.32 (95% CI 2.06-2.60) in 2015 to 2.91 (95% CI 2.39-3.47) in 2012. The prevalence of MS in China was lower than that in Europe and North America. The temporal trend of prevalence in China was also observed to be stable. As the first prevalence study of MS in mainland China, this population-based study can provide useful information for worldwide healthcare services and prevention of MS.

China implemented a universal two-child policy in 2016. But its earlier one-child policy resulted in a large population of one-child parents who face miserable later lives if their only-child passes away before them. China’s Current social assistance to such Shidu families is not supportive enough and provides insufficient coverage. Using demographic methods, this paper estimates both the mortality of only-children and the population of Shidu parents over 49 years-old. Furthermore, it advocates for improvements to the standard of social assistance for Shidu families and measures the financial sustainability of that suggested standard. After analyzing Chinese national census data and China Fertility Status Survey data, we found that the risk of death for a rural only-child was higher than for an urban only-child in every age group. Following the concept of period parity progression, we estimated the scale of Shidu parents, which will gradually increase to a peak of 1.05 million in 2030. Considering present policies and the Shidu parents’ unmet needs, we argue that China’s central government should increase its economic support of such families, include those support policies in a comprehensive social security system, and offer more emotional care.

目的分析我国城市人口中浆细胞白血病（PCL）的流行病学特征，并测算2016年PCL患病率。方法利用我国23个省2016年1月1日至2016年12月31日的城镇基本医疗保险数据进行测算。利用医疗保险数据中的疾病诊断名称和疾病诊断编码识别PCL患者。按性别、地区和年龄进行亚组分析，并通过敏感性分析考察结果的稳健性。基于我国2010年全国人口普查数据计算按年龄调整的标准化患病率。结果2016年我国城市人口中PCL患病率为0.11/10万（95％CI 0.05～0.19），其中男性和女性患病率分别为0.12/10万（95％CI 0.06～0.21），0.10/10万（95％CI 0.04～0.19）。PCL的患病率在70～79岁时达高峰。敏感性分析显示本研究结果具有稳健性。根据我国2010年全国人口普查数据所得的标化患病率为0.12/10万（95％CI 0.11～0.13）。结论本研究首次利用全国城镇医疗保险数据测算我国PCL的患病率，为PCL相关研究和政策制定提供依据。

Introduction:People with severe hypertension have high risk of target organ damage, yet few studies focus specifically on this population. We sought to assess the characteristics, prevalence, awareness, and treatment patterns of severe hypertension among middle-aged adults in China.Methods:We enrolled 2 660 666 participants aged 35–75 years from 31 provinces between 2014 and 2018 in the cross-sectional China Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Million Persons Project. Severe hypertension was defined as SBP of at least 160 mmHg or DBP of at least 100 mmHg. Awareness and treatment were defined as self-reported diagnosis of hypertension and current use of antihypertensive medication, respectively. Analyses were completed in 2019.Results:Our sample included 2 618 757 adults with a mean age of 55.6 years (SD 9.8), 59.6% of whom were women. A total of 378 457 (14.5%) participants had severe hypertension, of whom 222 533 (58.8%) were untreated. The age--sex-standardized rate of severe hypertension was 11.6% based on the 2010 Chinese Census data. Advanced age, female sex, current drinking, obesity, lower income, diabetes, and prior cardiovascular events were associated with higher risk of severe hypertension (all P < 0.01). Of untreated participants with severe hypertension, only 60 484 (27.1%) were aware of their conditions. Among participants with severe hypertension despite treatment, 84.7% reported taking one class of antihypertensive medication; only 15% reported taking guideline-recommended combination therapy.Conclusion:Many millions of people in China have severe hypertension and the vast majority are unaware of their condition and undertreated. There are immense opportunities to improve outcomes in this high-risk group.

Endogenous growth theories have underpinned the pivotal role of education in innovation. However, our empirical study uncovers a mixed effect of higher education on firm innovation in China. Using Chinese Patent Census Data, a unique dataset, this paper is able to quantify innovation in China by incorporating a quality dimension for the first time. By merging the patent data with the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database and province-level data on education, we find that the number of higher education institutions has a negative impact on firm-level innovation. However, the quantity of elite higher education institutions at the provincial level exerts a positive impact on firm innovation. In addition, heterogeneity analyses show that the effect of elite higher education on firm innovation is significantly positive for privately owned enterprises, but insignificant for state- and foreign-owned enterprises. Furthermore, the positive effect of elite higher education on innovation in high-tech industries is larger than in other industries.

To analyze the characteristics of patients with progressive muscular atrophy (PMA) and calculate the prevalence of PMA in China in 2016. A retrospective analysis based on China's urban employee basic medical insurance data and the urban residence basic medical insu-rance data from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016 was carried out. Children under 18 years old were excluded. Patients with progressive muscular atrophy were identified by disease names and codes. Subgroup analyses by gender, region and age were carried out to calculate the gender-specific, region-specific and age-specific prevalences. Age-adjusted national prevalence was estimated based on 2010 Chinese census data. Sensitivity analyses were done by only considering the observed cases and by excluding the top 10% provinces regarding the missing rate of diagnostic information, respectively. A total of 996.09 million person-years were included in this study, with 518.41 million person-years in males and 477.67 million person-years in females. The age and gender distribution of the study population was similar to that of the 2010 Chinese census data, therefore the study population was nationally representative. The prevalence of PMA in China in 2016 was 0.28 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.24-0.33), with 0.21 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.16-0.26) and 0.35 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.28-0.42) for females and males, respectively. Regional disparity existed in the Chinese PMA prevalence, with the lowest prevalence in Southwest region (0.11 per 100 000 person-years, 95%CI: 0.07-0.15) and the highest prevalence in Northwest region (3.47 per 100 000 person-years, 95%CI: 0.80-7.99). Age trend in the PMA prevalence was not obvious, but the prevalence among those aged 70 years and older was relatively higher. The age-adjusted prevalence based on 2010 Chinese census data was 0.29 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.27-0.31). The national prevalences calculated by only considering the observed cases and by excluding the top 10% provinces regar-ding the missing rate of diagnostic information were 0.17 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.14-0.20) and 0.24 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.20-0.28), respectively. This study is to calculate the prevalence of PMA among adults in urban China, which can provide basic statistics for the enactment of PMA related medical policies, and clues for the studies on the mechanisms of PMA.

目的分析我国孤立性浆细胞瘤患者分布特征并测算2016年患病率。方法基于2016年1月1日至12月31日我国21个省城镇职工和城镇居民医疗保险数据开展研究。通过疾病诊断名称、疾病诊断编码识别孤立性浆细胞瘤患者。根据性别、地区和年龄进行亚组分析，并进行敏感性分析以考察结果的稳健性。基于我国2010年全国人口普查数据、欧洲2013年标准人口数据、美国2010年人口数据以及澳大利亚2011年人口数据计算按年龄调整的标化患病率。结果2016年我国孤立性浆细胞瘤患病率为1.18/10万（95%CI 1.06~1.31），其中男性患病率为1.26/10万（95%CI 1.10~1.43），女性患病率为1.10/10万（95%CI 0.93~1.29）。基于我国2010年全国人口普查数据所得标化患病率为0.85/10万（95%CI 0.82~0.88）。结论本研究利用全国城镇医疗保险数据测算我国孤立性浆细胞瘤的患病率，为孤立性浆细胞瘤相关医疗政策制定以及基础研究提供线索。

ObjectiveAmyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a severe neurodegenerative disease and information on disease burden of ALS in mainland China was limited. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of...

Disability for the elderly has become a crucial policy concerns in rapidly aging Asia counties, especially in China. This study aimed to predict the trend of the number of and care costs for disabled older adults from 2020 to 2050 in urban and rural areas in China. Population Administration Decision Information System was used to predict the population of China by urban and rural areas and age group from 2020 to 2050. Monte Carlo simulation and Policy Simulation Model were used to estimate the number and care costs of disabled elderly between urban and rural areas, based on the Chinese latest census data, statistical yearbook, and national survey database. The total disabled population rises rapidly from 43.75 million in 2020 to 91.4 million in 2050, of which 69.7% were urban adults. Compared with the values in 2020, the growth rates of the adults with mild, moderate and severe disabilities were 108%, 104% and 120% in 2050, respectively. The value were 167% and 39% in urban and rural areas, respectively. By 2050, the total care costs increase from 538.0 billion yuan in 2020 to 8530.8 billion yuan, of which 80.2% occurs in urban areas. The predicted results indicate that the numbers and care costs for disabled older adults increase sharply from 2020 to 2050, especially in urban areas of China. It provided a series of evidence for the establishment of the long-term care insurance system in China.

ABSTRACTPressure to ban prenatal sex-selection has grown with rising sex ratios at birth in some countries. Governments feel pressured to act, and bans seem an immediate step they can take. However, such bans have been in place for some time in South Korea, China, and India and the available evidence suggests they are difficult to implement and have limited impact. This is indicated most clearly in the Chinese census data, which throw light on the mixed effects of a very intensive effort to implement the ban. Studies show that bans on sex-selection have negative consequences for unwanted girls and their mothers. By contrast, other studies have shown that other policies – including mass messaging and measures to increase gender equity – show fairly quick impact in reducing son preference and increasing parental investment in girls. Such policies can permanently lower son preference and sex-selection, while also improving girls’ life-chances.

To investigate the major causes and predictive factors of death in a middle-aged and elderly Chinese population. A total of 6591 residents aged ≥ 45 years from Shanghai Changfeng community were followed up for an average of 5.4 years. The causes of death were coded according to the 10th Revision of International Classification of Diseases. The mortality rate was calculated by person-years of follow up and age-standardized according to the 2010 Chinese census data. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was performed to investigate the predictors of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. During the total follow-up of 35,739 person-years, 370 deaths were documented (157 from malignant neoplasms, 70 from heart diseases, 68 from cerebrovascular diseases, 75 from other causes). The age-standardized all-cause mortality rate was 798.2 per 100,000 person-years (927.9 among men and 716.7 among women). Results from multivariable analyses showed that aging, diabetes, and osteoporosis at baseline were independent predictors of all-cause mortality, with hazard ratios (HR) of 1.11 (95% CI 1.10–1.13), 1.91 (1.51–2.42), and 1.71 (1.24–2.35), respectively. The population attributable risk percent of diabetes and osteoporosis was 19.7% and 11.7%, respectively. Cigarette smoking was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality in men (HR and 95%CI 1.44, 1.01–2.06). In women, diabetes and osteoporosis were related to a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (3.27, 1.82–5.88 and 1.89, 1.04–3.46, respectively). While in men, osteoporosis was related to a higher risk of malignant neoplasms mortality (2.39, 1.07–5.33). Malignant neoplasms, heart diseases, and cerebrovascular diseases are the leading causes of death. Aging, smoking, underweight, diabetes, and osteoporosis are independent predictors of premature death among middle-aged and elderly Chinese community population. Moreover, there may have been some differences in the causes and predictors of premature death between men and women.