Energy Policy Change Research Articles

Forecasting Shifts in Europe's Renewable and Fossil Fuel Markets Using Deep Learning Methods

ABSTRACTAccurate forecasts of renewable and nonrenewable energy output are essential for meeting global energy needs and resolving environmental issues. Energy sources like the sun and wind are variable, making forecasting difficult. Changes in weather, demand, and energy policy exacerbate this unpredictability. These challenges will be addressed by the bidirectional gated recurrent unit (Bi‐GRU) model, which forecasts power‐generating outcomes more efficiently. The investigation is done over a health data set from 2000 to 2023, including the energy states of the United Kingdom, Finland, Germany, and Switzerland. The comparison of our model (Bi‐GRU) performance with other popular models, including bidirectional long short‐term memory (Bi‐LSTM), ensemble techniques combining convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Bi‐LSTM, and CNNs, make the study more interesting. The performance remains better with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.75%, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0414, mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0017, and authentify that Bi‐GRU performs much better than others. This model's superior prediction accuracy significantly enhances our ability to forecast renewable and nonrenewable energy outputs in European states, contributing to more effective energy management strategies.

Developing an energy storage systems selection methodology for peak shaving purposes in photovoltaic micro-installations

This study investigates the selection methodology for peak shaving purposes in photovoltaic micro-installations. Due to the increasing share of photovoltaic micro-installations in the national electricity production and the consequent changes in the country's energy policy, the need for energy storage is becoming increasingly apparent. Therefore, based on data collected throughout the study of a photovoltaic installation conducted in years 2020-2024 and data on market electricity prices, the correlation between production, market electricity prices, and energy value was analyzed. The analysis established interconnections between these values and identified factors influencing their changes. It was observed that the market price of electricity is relatively low during hours of increased photovoltaic energy production. By comparing the correlations between energy production and electricity prices over different years, an increasing impact of the increasing share of photovoltaic energy production in national electricity production on the market price of electricity was noted, highlighting the importance of energy storage. For the described household, an energy storage system was selected with a view to meeting the energy demand during hours of higher market electricity prices. The selected model was Lithium-Iron-Phosphate battery with a capacity of 5 kWh. Furthermore, the cost effectiveness of household-scale energy storage systems was examined. Implementing the proposed solutions could result in increased auto-consumption and presumably improve cost-effectiveness of photovoltaic installations in the future.

Supporting energy policy research with large language models: A case study in wind energy siting ordinances

The recent growth in renewable energy development in the United States has been accompanied by a simultaneous surge in renewable energy siting ordinances. These zoning laws play a critical role in dictating the placement of wind and solar resources that are critical for achieving low-carbon energy futures. In this context, efficient access to and management of siting ordinance data becomes imperative. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently introduced a public wind and solar siting database to fill this need. This paper presents a method for harnessing Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate the extraction of these siting ordinances from legal documents, enabling this database to maintain accurate up-to-date information in the rapidly changing energy policy landscape. A novel contribution of this research is the integration of a decision tree framework with LLMs. Our results show that this approach is 85 to 90 % accurate with outputs that can be used directly in downstream quantitative modeling. We discuss opportunities to use this work to support similar large-scale policy research in the energy sector. By unlocking new efficiencies in the extraction and analysis of legal documents using LLMs, this study enables a path forward for automated large-scale energy policy research.

ANALYSIS OF SELECTED COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO THEIR ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY CLUSTER ANALYSIS K-MEANS METHOD

In this study, countries (Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Mexico, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turiye, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uzbekistan) were clustered based on their energy consumption for the years 2000 and 2021. In line with the objectives of the study, data on nuclear energy, coal consumption, oil consumption, natural gas consumption, hydropower consumption, and renewable energy consumption were used to represent energy consumption. The clustering analysis revealed differences between countries in the clusters formed between 2000 and 2021. The transition of countries such as Iran, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Luxembourg from Cluster 1 in 2000 to Cluster 2 in 2021 illustrates the complexity of changes in energy consumption patterns. Factors underlying these changes include changes in energy policies, economic conditions, international relations, and technological advances. Similarly, the transition of countries such as Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom from Cluster 2 in 2000 to Cluster 1 in 2021 can be attributed to various factors such as changes in energy policies, economic growth or stagnation, technological progress, shifts in international trade relations, and environmental considerations.

Differentiating Indigenous Peoples from local communities under climate regimes in just energy transition: Implications for the Inuit and Sami Peoples

The distinction between Indigenous peoples and local communities under climate regimes was initially addressed under the UNFCCC and has recently garnered renewed attention owing to energy policy changes to cope with rapid climate change such as in Alaska. The Montana climate litigation demonstrates the possibility of harmonizing Indigenous peoples and local communities by clearly identifying the unique climate-related indigenous culture and avoiding unintentional confrontation, given the difficulty of making clear distinctions in modern society and garnering sympathy from the local community against litigations that solely seek indigenous rights, but Indigenous peoples themselves may not see the need for harmony. Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas (ICCAs) is one approach to achieve a 30 by 30 target under the CBD by designating Indigenous peoples' original land but may not be beneficial to assert inherent rights or the best way to achieve harmony if they work with local communities. The local community of Finnish non-Sami reindeer herders will not receive protection under the ICCPR unlike Sami herders in Norway, if a case similar to Norway's Fosen case occurs. As just energy transition alone does not automatically reflect the perspectives of Indigenous peoples, green colonialism could easily occur when their rights are not considered.

Long-term contributions of VOC sources and their link to ozone pollution in Bronx, New York City

Changes in energy and environmental policies along with changes in the energy markets of New York State over the past two decades, have spurred interest in evaluating their impacts on emissions from various energy generation sectors. This study focused on quantifying these effects on VOC (volatile organic compounds) emissions and their subsequent impacts on air quality within the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area. NYC is an EPA nonattainment region for ozone (O3) and likely is a VOC limited region. NYC has a complex coastal topography and meteorology with low-level jets and sea/bay/land breeze circulation associated with heat waves, leading to summertime O3 exceedances and formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). To date, no comprehensive source apportionment studies have been done to understand the contributions of local and long-range sources of VOCs in this area. This study applied an improved Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) methodology designed to incorporate atmospheric dispersion and photochemical reaction losses of VOCs to provide improved apportionment results. Hourly measurements of VOCs were obtained from a Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station located at an urban site in the Bronx from 2000 to 2021. The study further explores the role of VOC sources in O3 and SOA formation and leverages advanced machine learning tools, XGBoost and SHAP algorithms, to identify synergistic interactions between sources and provided VOC source impacts on ambient O3 concentrations. Isoprene demonstrated a substantial influence in the source contribution of the biogenic factor, emphasizing its role in O3 formation. Notable contributions from anthropogenic emissions, such as fuel evaporation and various industrial processes, along with significant traffic-related sources that likely contribute to SOA formation, underscore the combined impact of natural and human-made sources on O3 pollution. Findings of this study can assist regulatory agencies in developing appropriate policy and management initiatives to control O3 pollution in NYC.

Energy Policy and Climate Change: Challenges for Public Sector Organizations in South Sulawesi

This paper aims to discuss about some issues and prospect that might faced by the power policies for public sector organizations in South Sulawesi. It celebrates the richness of the renewable power sources available within the region and the possibility of the enhanced opportunities brought about through technological advancement, at the same time as identifying strategic limitations including economic limitations, infrastructural challenges, regulatory issues, political considerations, social acceptance concerns, technological challenges amongst others. The paper offers recommendations, including reforms for coverage and financing as well as current funding mechanisms, building an institutional framework, partnership, and integration of climate resilience into the network’s capacity. Al these strategies are needed for providing solutions to the boundaries and for effective implementation of the sustainable energy development in the region which contributes for economic boom, social advancement and overall climatic trade system, mitigation process.

Oil and Stock Markets in Ongoing Flux: Impact of Current Events on Oil Price and Stock Market Performance

Abstract The price of oil and, indirectly, the performance of stock indices have been significantly affected by the events of recent years, with a negative impact on the global economy, including the evolution of the energy market in the context of the transition to renewable energy sources and changes in global energy policy. This paper proposes a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of stock indices, oil market volatility and investors' response to the "black swan" events that have recently caused changes in the global economy. Using advanced econometric and statistical models, the paper presents the complex relationship between the analyzed stock indices, the trends and changes that occurred within them and the relevant influencing factors, such as the price of Brent Oil and the Baltic Dry Index. The results obtained, based on univariate GARCH models (GJR-GARCH) and multivariate DCC-GARCH models are in accordance with specialized studies in the field and show that oil price fluctuations were higher at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic compared to the period after the military conflicts (stage in which no significant influence of the oil price on the stock market is observed). Also, using the Chow test, in the analyzed period there are 3 important breaking points that coincide with the dates when the COVID-19 pandemic began, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine as well as the military conflict between Israel and Gaza, events with a strong impact on the economy. The obtained results also show another important aspect, namely that, during the selected period January 2019-November 2023, the price of oil and the stock market were much more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic than by military conflicts, which cannot be also stated in the case of the price of the Baltic-Dry Index.

Advancing Urban Building Energy Modeling: Building Energy Simulations for Three Commercial Building Stocks through Archetype Development

Urban building energy models (UBEMs), developed to understand the energy performance of building stocks of a region, can aid in key decisions related to energy policy and climate change solutions. However, creating a city-scale UBEM is challenging due to the requirements of diverse geometric and non-geometric datasets. Thus, we aimed to further elucidate the process of creating a UBEM with disparate and scarce data based on a bottom-up, physics-based approach. We focused on three typically overlooked but functionally important commercial building stocks, which are sales and shopping, healthcare facilities, and food sales and services, in the region of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We harvested relevant local building information and employed photogrammetry and image processing. We created archetypes for key building types, designed 3D buildings with SketchUp, and performed an energy analysis using EnergyPlus. The average annual simulated energy use intensities (EUIs) were 528 kWh/m2, 822 kWh/m2, and 2894 kWh/m2 for sales and shopping, healthcare facilities, and food sales and services, respectively. In addition to variations found in the simulated energy use pattern among the stocks, considerable variations were observed within buildings of the same stock. About 9% and 11% errors were observed for sales and shopping and healthcare facilities when validating the simulated results with the actual data. The suggested energy conservation measures could reduce the annual EUI by 10–26% depending on the building use type. The UBEM results can assist in finding energy-efficient retrofit solutions with respect to the energy and carbon reduction goal for commercial building stocks at the city scale. The limitations highlighted may be considered for higher accuracy, and the UBEM has a high potential to integrate with urban climate and energy models, circular economy, and life cycle assessment for sustainable urban planning.

Energy policy and climate change mitigation at national level in the European Union: A case study of Lithuania

The European Union (EU) is addressing global climate change issues in the formulation of energy policy for many years. Each EU member state plays a pivotal role in realising ambitious goals and implementing measures for energy policy and climate change mitigation. This study introduces a composite indicator, serving as a metric to assess the progress achieved in the implementation of national-level energy and climate change policy in Lithuania, scrutinises Lithuania's adopted energy policy frameworks and computes a short-term index forecast. The indicator created is applied for a case study of Lithuania in the period of 2010–2021 taking into account different importance of the indicators selected. Results indicate a gradual annual increase in achievements whit an overall growth of 72% over the last 11 years. However, both the attained results and the short-term index forecast suggest that expected growth rates are insufficient to meet ambitious regional and national climate change and energy targets. The proposed indicator is universal and adaptable for measuring energy policy achievements in various countries, allowing comparisons and rankings of countries, and analysis of best practices. This case study contributes to a broader understanding of energy policy and climate change mitigation at the national level within the EU.

Comparing Wood Chip Quality from Different Sources across the Southeastern United States

Abstract Global use of renewable energy has risen over the past few decades because of international energy policy changes, new legislation, and an effort to create a more sustainable energy source for a rapidly growing global population. One of these renewable energy sources is biofuels, specifically in the form of wood pellets created from wood chips. Wood pellet manufacturers in the southeastern United States must adhere to rigid quality-control standards of the European markets where their pellets are shipped and consumed. Thus, there is a need to improve our understanding of the factors that influence the quality of the source materials. Higher heating value (HHV), moisture content (MC), ash content, elemental composition, and size stratification are all important quality factors to consider when analyzing wood chips. Variations in these quality factors can cause longer drying times, blockages in feed systems, excess waste, and fluctuations in energy output. The objective of this study was to quantify these quality factors across multiple sources of wood chips. Softwood and hardwood in-woods chip samples as well as softwood mill residual chips were collected from thinnings and clear-cuts across the southeastern United States. Softwoods had a greater HHV and MC than hardwood chips, with 18,949 kJ/kg and 18,242 kJ/kg, respectively. Softwood thinnings had the highest HHV and lowest ash content. However, only 4 of the 60 samples analyzed were from softwood thinnings. This study provides an overview of the variation in wood chip quality across the southeastern United States.

Economic crises as critical junctures for policy and structural changes towards decarbonization – the cases of Spain and Germany

ABSTRACT Crises may act as tipping points for decarbonization pathways by triggering structural economic change or offering windows of opportunity for policy change. We investigate both types of effects of the global financial and COVID-19 crises on decarbonization in Spain and Germany through a quantitative Kaya-decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions and through a qualitative review of climate and energy policy changes. We show that the global financial crisis resulted in a critical juncture for Spanish CO2 emissions due to the combined effects of the deep economic recession and crisis-induced structural change, resulting in reductions in carbon and energy intensities and shifts in the economic structure. However, the crisis also resulted in a rollback of renewable energy policy, halting progress in the transition to green electricity. The impacts were less pronounced in Germany, where pre-existing decarbonization and policy trends continued after the crisis. Recovery packages had modest effects, primarily due to their temporary nature and the limited share of climate-related spending. The direct short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on CO2 emissions were more substantial in Spain than in Germany. The policy responses in both countries sought to align short-term economic recovery with the long-term climate change goals of decarbonization, but it is too soon to observe their lasting effects. Our findings show that crises can affect structural change and support decarbonization but suggest that such effects depend on pre-existing trends, the severity of the crisis and political manoeuvring during the crisis.

The Innovative Nature of Selected Polish Companies in the Energy Sector Compared to the Use of Renewable Energy Sources from a Financial and an Investor’s Perspective

Analysis of the energy sector from the micro perspective that relates to individual companies is much rarer than a macroeconomic analysis that concerns the power industry as a whole and its impact on the functioning of the economy. However, energy companies directly implement the government’s energy policies and innovation strategies. Thus, this article attempts to answer the question concerning the relationships in three large energy companies operating in Poland (1) between the use of renewable resources for production and the innovative nature of a company, (2) between the use of renewable energy sources and the standing on the stock exchange and profitability. This study used multiple case studies, financial analysis indicators, a time series analysis, and an interdependence analysis. This study covers 2011–2022 and allows consideration of long-term changes in domestic energy policy. Our findings suggest that there is a relationship between a company’s investment activity and the use of renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, the scope of the use of RESs in these companies is small (from ca. 1% to 15%, which demonstrates the low progress of green transformation) and has negative correlations with the investors’ assessment and profitability. In relation to innovation, the ratio of intangible assets to total assets was the highest for Tauron SA, increasing from 1.96% to 5.16%. Its material commitment to innovation is distinguishable from the other two companies. This is also the company with the highest share of RESs in energy production. The second place belongs to Enea SA with its ratio of intangible assets to total assets that increased from 0.72% to 1.69%. The ratio was lowest for PGE SA, increasing from 0.37% to 1.47%. The results and standing of the analyzed energy companies are strongly affected by energy policy amendments, including the improved status of coal and the re-oriented use of RESs (prioritizing solar energy over wind). As a result, these companies, despite the twelve-year period of the implementation of green transformation in the European Union, have achieved little on the path to sustainable energy. Therefore, achieving the goal of a zero-emission economy seems unlikely, since the renewable energy mix is still very slight and not diversified. Changes in energy policy are also not conducive to sectoral and economic innovation.

Path creation for an electricity transition in South African tourism

Transitions to low-carbon energy are central to sustainability transitions, with electricity being a pressing current concern both in South Africa and globally. Economic, social, institutional, and political factors often make transitioning to renewable electricity particularly complex. In this article, we examine electricity transitions in tourism from a global South context, combining evolutionary economic geography (EEG) concepts with the multi-level perspective (MLP). Our findings point to strong exogenous lock-in factors working against an electricity transition in South African tourism. A historic dependence on coal, along with complex place-based factors lock the country into a carbon-intensive electricity path at the national electricity infrastructure level. In turn, these complexities adversely affect an electricity transition in the tourism sector. However, energy policy change along with innovation by tourism actors is emergent stimuli for creating low-carbon electricity paths. More specifically, recent climate change mitigation policies, the increasing unreliability of grid electricity, and legislative reforms are significant factors encouraging the renewal of the electricity system. At the same time, it is becoming more cost-effective for businesses, including tourism establishments, to install renewables. The South African case contributes to the emerging body of literature on sustainability transitions in tourism. It does this by showing that to achieve a just energy transition, proper appraisal of path-dependent structural challenges is needed to understand the nature and levels of change required.

Examining the Role and Challenges of Sustainable Development Goals for the Universities in the United Arab Emirates

This study aims to explore the potential role of higher education institutions in the United Arab Emirates in driving the world’s progress toward achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The objectives of the study also include examining the challenges faced by the universities while integrating the SDG into their systems. This study adopted a mixed-method study design by conducting interviews with deans (15) and a survey with faculty members (350) of the universities in the UAE. The most pressing challenges reported were difficulties in the identification of priorities for the most impactful SDGs for universities, reduction of the environmental footprints of universities, the lack of sufficient collaboration and communication among universities, tracking the progress of SDGs in the absence of reporting protocols, impediments to participation from cultural and societal factors, bureaucratic hurdles, and political and economic influence over prioritization of SDGs in universities’ strategic planning. However, governmental change in economic and energy policy was highlighted as a favorable measure to accelerate the adoption of SDGs by the universities. Additionally, the results show that the scope of research and collaborative projects at the universities are limited and do not bring about any substantial change in society.

Regional Differences in Energy Policy Changes of EU Countries in 2012-2021

Regional Differences in Energy Policy Changes of EU Countries in 2012-2021

Recent renewable energy policy changes in Ireland satisfy the requirements of a nascent wave energy technology development sector?

Regulatory frameworks for European countries are influenced by international and EU policies. These policies have a direct effect on the renewables sector with European countries as signatories to the Paris Agreement[1]and the European Green Deal[2].
 As a result of emissions targets being ratified into national statute books, governments have agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 51% in 2030 and to net zero by 2050, and with recently heightened energy security concerns, renewable energy policies must adapt to keep pace. One country undergoing major changes is Ireland. This study examines the changes to renewables policy in Ireland in general and offshore renewables policy in particular, and whether they are sufficient to enable the country to forge what has the potential to become a vibrant wave energy technology development sector. This study will compare these policy changes with some of the successful wind energy policy measures implemented in Denmark and with examples set by other international institutions.
 This study will examine policy changes in Ireland since the ratification of the Climate Action Act 2021[3] and Marine Area Planning Act 2021[4]. The study will attempt to determine whether the new policies meet the requirements of Ireland’s nascent wave energy industry. It will look at areas of interest for wave energy technology developers, specifically: climate-related legislation, test facilities, consenting procedures, feed-in tariffs, environmental impact, public support, intellectual property protection and government financial support. This study will examine examples set by Wave Energy Scotland (WES) and EuropeWave; pre-commercial, government funded procurement models, and ask whether the newly established Maritime Area Regulatory Authority (MARA) which will be responsible for issuing foreshore licences in Ireland, is Ireland’s version of these institutions and how it is likely to differ. Questions will be raised about whether the focus on offshore wind by policy architects helps or hinders wave energy technology development and whether it is possible to balance public concerns with technology development through policy. Finally, it will look at Denmark’s wind energy development and examine which policies contributed most to its enduring success and whether these have been absorbed into new offshore renewables policies in Ireland.
 Conclusions will show that many policy requirements that had been formerly lacking have been addressed. It will be shown that the changes have largely come about due to the demand for offshore wind and that wave energy technology developers in Ireland will benefit and lose from this. Further analysis and the passage of time are required to determine whether the new policies are fully enforced by newly formed MARA but that Ireland needs to develop an institution that embraces the new policies.
 
 [1] The Paris Agreement | United Nations
 [2] European Green Deal | Think Tank | European Parliament (europa.eu)
 [3] Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 (irishstatutebook.ie)]
 [4] Maritime Area Planning Act 2021 (irishstatutebook.ie)

Is Africa Left behind in the Global Climate Finance Architecture: Redefining Climate Vulnerability and Revamping the Climate Finance Landscape—A Comprehensive Review

African countries contribute less than 4% of global carbon emissions and are susceptible to the repercussions of climate change due to pre-existing challenges such as poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity. The Paris Agreement underscores the need for climate finance to support resilience and low-carbon investments. However, African nations struggle to access adequate funds, hindering effective adaptation and mitigation. Against this background, a bibliometric analysis was conducted on climate finance literature for the period 2007–2023 in order to explore the publication trends, emerging themes, and future research directions. Merging 91 documents from Web of Science and 94 from Scopus yielded a dataset of 139 records. Web of Science experienced a 10.58% publication growth rate, while Scopus had a higher publication growth rate of 13.18%. The merged dataset’s publication growth rate was 13.88%, reflecting consistent contributions. The surge in publications from 2019 to 2023 points to intensified discussions on climate change and associated policies. International collaboration between authors is evident, with Web of Science at 37.76%, Scopus at 28.7%, and the merged dataset at 26.62%. Temporally, 2007–2023 saw escalating interest, especially post-2012, reflecting the evolution of climate change and renewable energy policies. Authors were ranked based on article count and fractionalized ranks, with Chirambo D being the lead author in the field of climate finance in Africa. Key articles advocated for supplementary fund integration into government budgets. The UK, USA, and Germany topped in citations, reflecting the availability of research funding, expertise, and collaborations. Leading sources included Climate Policy and Climate and Development. Keyword co-occurrence identified five emerging thematic trends, contributing to an in-depth understanding of climate finance literature’s dynamics and future directions.

러시아와 EU 간의 에너지 협력과 갈등에 대한 소고

Energy policies are planned in consideration of a number of factors that meet various social needs. Typical constituent factors are energy security, environmental sustainability, and energy equity. Energy cooperation between Russia and the EU is also a key issue. The Corona pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are having a huge impact on both Russia and the EU. War, not only Russia, but also the EU thinks that the balance of peace can be upset rather than maintaining the geopolitical balance. However, energy is required for industrial development and maintenance, and a significant part of the required energy is dependent on Russia. To avoid these risks, the EU is actively pursuing the establishment of a decarbonized energy system and the energy transition. Russia is also responding by diversifying its exports. Importantly, both Russia and the EU are at an inflection point for energy policy changes. Therefore, it can be said that a clear analysis of the changes in energy policies in Russia and the EU is necessary because the policy changes of both camps have a great impact on the global economy.

Managing the EU energy crisis and greenhouse gas emissions: Seasonal ARIMA forecast

Changes in the logistics of energy resources and their potential shortage are causing a review of the EU energy policy. The energy sector significantly affects the progress toward achieving climate policy goals due to significt greenhouse gas emissions. The REPowerEU plan, implemented in the EU27 to overcome the energy crisis, requires new forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions due to a change in European energy policy. This paper aims to examine the consequences of the management of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on EU climate policy. This study focuses on forecasting greenhouse gas emissions in the EU until 2030 and uses the Seasonal ARIMA model based on quarterly time series in the EU27. Depending on energy management and changes in energy policy to overcome the energy crisis, a positive or negative scenario for greenhouse gas emissions may occur. An important parameter that should be considered when determining the scenario of the EU energy development according to climate policy was defined by correlation analysis.According to the negative scenario and under the influence of the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the value of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU at the beginning of 2030 will be 0.752911 tons per capita. The positive scenario shows greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced to 0.235225 tons per capita.The study results proved two extreme scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, depending on how to overcome the energy crisis. AcknowledgmentThe authors appreciate the copyright holder: © European Union, 1995–2022, as well as the source of the extracted data, which is the European Commission website, Eurostat http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat (accessed on 16 October 2022). This study was funded by the European Union (the project No. 101048079 – EU4SmartED – ERASMUS-JMO-2021-HEI-TCH-RSCH); by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (projects No. 0122U000788, 0122U000769, 0121U109553, 0120U102001, 0122U000777).This research was funded by Faculty of Organization and Management of the Silesian University of Technology (grant number: 13/990/BK_23/0178).