Changes In Distribution Of Species Research Articles

Predicting high-risk zones for pine wood nematodes invasion: Integrating climate suitability, host availability, and vector dominance.

Predicting high-risk zones for pine wood nematodes invasion: Integrating climate suitability, host availability, and vector dominance.

Recent distribution changes of invasive Asteraceae species in China: A five-year analysis (2016-2020).

Recent distribution changes of invasive Asteraceae species in China: A five-year analysis (2016-2020).

Tracking hidden dimensions of plant biogeography from herbaria.

Plants are diverse, but investigating their ecology and evolution in nature across geographic and temporal scales to predict how species will respond to global change is challenging. With their geographic and temporal breadth, herbarium data provide physical evidence of the existence of a species in a place and time. The remarkable size of herbarium collections along with growing digitization efforts around the world and the possibility of extracting functional traits and geographic data from preserved plant specimens makes them invaluable resources for advancing our understanding of changing species distributions over time, functional biogeography, and conserving plant communities. Here, I synthesize core aspects of plant biogeography that can be gleaned from herbaria along changing distributions, attributes (functional biogeography), and conservation biogeography across the globe. I advocate for a collaborative, multisite, and multispecies research to harness the full potential of these collections while addressing the inherent challenges of using herbarium data for biogeography and macroecological investigations. Ultimately, these data present untapped resources and opportunities to enable predictions of plant species' responses to global change and inform effective conservation planning.

Water economics of African savanna herbivores: How much does plant moisture matter?

Water is an essential and often limiting resource that pervades all aspects of animal ecology. Yet, water economics are grossly understudied relative to foraging and predation, leaving ecologists ill-equipped to predict how the intensifying disruption of hydrological regimes worldwide will impact communities. For savanna herbivores, reliance on surface water can increase exposure to predators and competitors, and thus strategies that reduce the need to drink are advantageous. Yet, the extent to which increasing dietary water intake while decreasing water loss enables animals to forego drinking remains unknown. We studied water budgets of sympatric African savanna antelopes that differ in size, bushbuck (Tragelaphus sylvaticus, ~35 kg) and kudu (T. strepsiceros, ~140 kg). We hypothesized that both species compensate for seasonally declining water availability by increasing consumption of moisture-rich plants and reducing faecal water loss, and that these adjustments are sufficient for small-bodied-but not large-bodied-herbivores to avoid spending more time near permanent water sources as the dry season advances. We tested our predictions using temporally explicit data on antelope movements, diets, plant traits and drinking behaviour in Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique. Water content declined between the early and late dry seasons in roughly half of plant taxa consumed by antelope. Although both species reduced faecal water loss and shifted their diets towards relatively moisture-rich plants as the dry season progressed, dietary water intake still declined. Contrary to expectation, kudu reduced selection for surface water in the late dry season without adjusting total time spent drinking, whereas bushbuck increased selection for surface water. We developed a generalizable approach for parsing the importance of dietary and surface water for large herbivores. Our results underscore that variation in surface-water dependence is a key organizing force in herbivore communities, that simple allometric predictions about the behavioural and ecological consequences of this variation are unreliable. Understanding wildlife water economics is a research frontier that will be essential for predicting changes in species distribution and community composition as temperatures rise and droughts intensify.

BioVars - A bioclimatic dataset for Europe based on a large regional climate ensemble for periods in 1971–2098

Ongoing ecological research is concerned with analysing climate-induced changes in species distribution. For this purpose, the projection must have high-quality bioclimatic variables from historical and future climatic periods for the projection. To date, there are many global bioclimatic variables on this topic. Nevertheless, a consistent dataset with identical model variables from historic and projected periods is rare. We present 26 bioclimatic variables that are calculated based on a large ensemble consisting of 70 bias-adjusted GCM-RCM simulations for 1971–2098. Both, the historic and the projection periods were calculated using the same models to ensure consistency between the periods. The variables are validated against E-OBS observations from which we calculated the same bioclimatic variables. For projection periods we chose 20 year ranges between 2021–2098. Here, we offer two versions of them: (1) variables separated into RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, including percentiles among the realisations and within the RCPs; and (2) variables per realisation separately. We then extracted the temporal 5th, 50th and 95th percentile per period as representing values.

Detection and attribution of species distribution and richness changes: a case study of bird and vascular plant species in China

ABSTRACT In this study, data spanning 60 years on the distributions and richness of 19 bird species and 108 vascular plant species in China were utilized to detect and attribute multidirectional changes in distribution and richness. Between 1961 and 2020, approximately two-thirds of the studied species exhibited northward shifts in their northern boundaries or latitudinal centres of distribution, while significant statistical shifts in range variables occurred for less than one-third of the species. Changes in northern boundaries and distribution centres were observed for more than half of the studied species, with other directional shifts attributed to climate change affecting less than one-third of the species; additionally, some range shifts were linked to land-use activities. Furthermore, a significant shift was noted in the statistical distribution of richness among the studied species, accompanied by increases in both mean and median values; these changes in richness were associated with climate change as well as land-use factors.

Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China

AbstractIncreases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climate events (ECEs) are already impacting ecosystems, with many of the strongest effects associated with high‐elevation areas. Most research on the ecological impacts of climate change has focused on climatic averages, which might differ from ECEs. Rhododendron, a diverse genus of alpine and subalpine woody plant, plays a crucial role in ecosystem stability and biodiversity in the biodiversity hotspots of the Himalayas and Hengduan Mountains. Here, we compared the predicted impacts of average climate with those including ECEs on 189 Rhododendron species in China for the historical period (1981–2010) and the future period (2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). We analyzed changes in suitable habitat and patterns of species richness, weighted endemism, and phylogenetic diversity, identifying areas of coinciding high‐risk as priority conservation areas. Inclusion of ECEs altered the projected areas of suitable habitat across all species from an increase of over 3% to a decrease exceeding 10%, with the distribution of most Rhododendron species strongly influenced by extremes of drought and high temperatures. We found fewer than 18% of high‐risk areas of diversity loss were currently protected, with priority conservation areas mainly located in the Daxue, Daliang, Wumeng, and Jade Dragon Snow Mountains, as well as in the Nyingchi. We suggest inclusion of ECEs is critical when projecting changes in alpine and subalpine species distributions for effective conservation planning for climate change.

Integrated movement models for individual tracking and species distribution data

Abstract While the quantity, quality, and variety of movement data has increased, methods that jointly allow for population‐ and species‐level movement parameters to be estimated are still needed. We present a formal data integration approach to combine individual‐level movement and population‐level distribution data. We show how formal data integration can be used to improve precision of individual and population‐level movement parameters and allow additional population‐level metrics (e.g., connectivity) to be formally quantified. We describe three components needed for an Integrated Movement Model (IMM): a model for individual movement, a model for among‐individual heterogeneity, and a model to quantify changes in species distribution. We outline a general IMM framework and develop and apply a specific stochastic differential equation model to a case study of telemetry and species distribution data for golden eagles in western North American during spring migration. We estimate eagle movements during spring migration from data collected between 2011 and 2019. Individual heterogeneity in migration behaviour was modelled for two subpopulations, individuals that make significant northward migrations and those that remained in the southern Rocky Mountain region through the summer. As is the case with most tracking studies, the sample population of individual telemetered birds is not representative of the population and underrepresents the proportion of long‐distance migrants in the population. The IMM was able to provide a more biological accurate subpopulation structure using joint estimation. In addition, the integrated approach (a) improves accuracy of other estimated movement parameters, (b) allows us to estimate the proportion of migratory and non‐migratory birds in a given location and time, and (c) estimate future spatiotemporal distributions of birds given a wintering location, which provide estimates of seasonal connectivity and migratory routes. We demonstrate how IMMs can be successfully used to address the challenge of estimating accurate population‐level movement parameters. Our approach can be generalized to a broad range of available movement models and data types, allowing us to significantly improve our knowledge of migration ecology across taxonomic groups, and address population and continental level information needs for conservation and management.

Mosquito аbundance and species surveillance in St. Joseph County, Indiana, 1976-1997.

Approximately twenty-one years of historical mosquito abundance and species surveillance data, collected by the University of Notre Dame and the St. Joseph County (IN) Health Department, from 1976 to 1997 are made available following a data rescue effort. St. Joseph County is a county in Indiana, located on the Michigan-Indiana border, 35 miles from Lake Michigan. The collected data will allow for trends in species to be followed over a wide time range and facilitate further research regarding mosquito-borne diseases, species distribution, phenology and ecological changes over time.

Contrasting demographic processes underlie uphill shifts in a desert ecosystem.

Climate change is projected to cause extensive plant range shifts, and, in many cases such shifts already are underway. Most long-term studies of range shifts measure emergent changes in species distributions but not the underlying demographic patterns that shape them. To better understand species' elevational range shifts and their underlying demographic processes, we use the powerful approach of rephotography, comparing historical (1978-1982) and modern (2015-2016) photographs taken along a 1000-m elevational gradient in the Colorado Desert of Southern California. This approach allowed us to track demographic outcomes for 4263 individual plants of 11 long-lived, perennial species over the past ~36 years. All species showed an upward shift in mean elevation (average = 45 m), consistent with observed increasing temperature and severe drought in the region. We found that varying demographic processes underlaid these elevational shifts, with some species showing higher recruitment and some showing higher survival with increasing elevation. Species with faster life-history rates (higher background recruitment and mortality rates) underwent larger elevational shifts. Our findings emphasize the importance of demography and life history in shaping range shift responses and future community composition, as well as the sensitivity of desert systems to climate change despite the typical "slow motion" population dynamics of perennial desert plants.

Forecasting the Effects of Global Change on a Bee Biodiversity Hotspot.

The Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, recognized as a global hotspot for bee biodiversity, are experiencing habitat degradation from urbanization, utility-scale solar energy (USSE) development, and climate change. In this study, we evaluated the current and future distribution of bee diversity, assessed how protected areas safeguard bee species richness, and predicted how global change may affect bees across the region. Using Joint Species Distribution Models (JSDMs) of 148 bee species, we project changes in species distributions, occurrence area, and richness under four global change scenarios between 1971 and 2050. We evaluated the threat posed by USSE development and predicted how climate change will affect the suitability of protected areas for conservation. Our findings indicate that changes in temperature and precipitation do not uniformly affect bee richness. Lower elevation protected areas are projected to experience mean losses of up to 5.8 species, whereas protected areas at higher elevations and transition zones may gain up to 7.8 species. Areas prioritized for future USSE development have an average species richness of 4.2 species higher than the study area average, and lower priority "variance" areas have 8.2 more species. USSE zones are expected to experience declines of up to 8.0 species by 2050 due to climate change alone. Despite the importance of solitary bees for pollination, their diversity is often overlooked in land management decisions. Our results show the utility of JSDMs for leveraging existing collection records to ease the inclusion of data-limited insect species in land management decision-making.

Future climate and land use changes challenge current dependencies on wild food harvesting by rural indigenous communities.

Traditional food systems support the livelihoods and well-being of rural Indigenous communities, particularly in remote, asset-poor areas. However, the diversity of wild foods is in global decline under the accelerating impacts of climate and environmental change with major but poorly understood implications for dependent communities. Here, we combine a comprehensive systematic household survey involving 400 households from 18 rural Indigenous settlements across the Republic of Sakha, a vast and climate change sensitive region in the Russian Far East, with species distribution models for 51 food species of animals, plants, and fungi to (i) profile current household dependencies on wild food harvesting; (ii) project future (2050s) changes in the regional distribution and local availability of wild foods under alternative climate and land use change scenarios; and (iii) discuss their combined potential implications. We find that current dependencies, understood as shares of the total food consumed and income by household, are on average relatively low across settlements, albeit with important regional variability. Remote and isolated settlements in the Arctic region of the Republic of Sakha have greater levels of dependency with stronger links to animal products, while those in the southern and central regions, which are better connected and closer to major urban areas, have lower levels of dependency and are dominated by nonanimal products (plant-based products and fungi). These dependency patterns contrast with projected changes in the regional distribution and local availability of food species, signaling major turnovers of species with important potential implications for dependent rural livelihoods.

Differences in species composition between calcareous and siliceous herbaceous communities are primarily explained by competition in favourable climates

Difference in vegetation composition between communities from calcareous and siliceous soils might be due to high competition on siliceous soils for species from calcareous origin, and high rock‐induced drought stress on calcareous soils for species from siliceous origin. We tested the hypothesis that, with increasing climate stress, competition should decrease on siliceous rock for species of calcareous origin and drought stress increase on calcareous rock for species of siliceous origin because of decreasing community biomass with increasing cold or drought stress. This question is of high interest for predicting changes in species distribution with climate change since bedrock type and climate change are both complex factors that are likely to interact with climate. We set up a transplant removal experiment in contrasting climate conditions of the south of France, warm and wet temperate, warm and dry Mediterranean, and cold temperate in the Alps and the Pyrenees. In each climate condition, three targets (two species and one population from a third species) from each origin were transplanted with and without neighbours on the two rock types and during two years with different levels of drought stress. Variation in the effects of neighbours and rock‐induced drought stress on transplant survival with and without neighbours were analysed with linear modelling at each site, separately, and with ANCOVA in the whole design. Competition was the highest on siliceous rock in the more favourable climate conditions but for species of siliceous origin. The lower competition found for species of calcareous origin was likely due to the occurrence of allelopathic effects that decreased the negative effect of neighbours as measured with the removal method. The rock‐induced drought stress was the highest on calcareous rock, in particular for species of siliceous origin. Thus, the decrease in competition intensity on siliceous rocks with increasing climate stress was more important for species from siliceous than calcareous origin. Additionally, the importance of the rock‐induced drought stress was relatively low in the most stressful climate conditions as compared to the overwhelming importance of climate drought stress over the two years of our experiment, which likely induced a collapse of the positive effect of growing on a siliceous rock.

Changes in waterbird occurrence and abundance at their northern range boundaries in response to climate warming: importance of site area and protection status

AbstractClimate warming is driving changes in species distribution, but habitat characteristics can interact with warming temperatures to affect populations in unexpected ways. We investigated wintering waterbird responses to climate warming depending on habitat characteristics, with a focus on the northern boundary of their non‐breeding distributions where winter climatic conditions are more extreme. At these Nordic latitudes, climate warming is expected to drive positive changes in species occurrence and abundance, with likely differences in species‐specific responses. We analyzed the occurrence and abundance of 18 species of waterbirds monitored over 2,982 surveys at 245 inland wetlands over a 25‐year period in Sweden. We used hierarchical modeling of species communities (HMSC) which enabled us to relate species‐specific changes to both functional traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We investigated occurrence and abundance changes in response to average temperature, temperature anomalies, site area, site protection status (Natura 2000), and land use in agricultural and urban surfaces. Unsurprisingly, both average temperatures and temperature anomalies were the most important variables influencing positively waterbird occurrence and abundance. For 60% of the species, the effect of temperature anomalies was even stronger in large or protected wetlands. Geese and mallard occurred more often at sites surrounded by agricultural and urban surfaces, respectively, but their occurrence in these habitats was not affected by interactive effects with climate warming. Species abundance was greater inside protected areas only for 11% of the species, but occurrence probability was higher inside protected areas for 44% of the species. Overall, we observed that species thermal affinity was a strong predictor for positive species response to temperature anomalies, and that species sharing similar phylogenetic history had similar relationships with environmental variables. Protection of large wetlands and restoration of the surrounding habitats are two targets for climate change adaptation strategies to facilitate future responses of waterbirds to climate warming.

Heavy metal exposure reduces larval gut microbiota diversity of the rice striped stem borer, Chilo suppressalis.

Cadmium (Cd), a widely distributed environmental pollutant in agroecosystems, causes negative effects on crops and herbivores through bottom-up processes. The gut microbial community of an insect can play a critical role in response to metal stress. To understand how microbiota affect the stress responses of organisms to heavy metals in agroecosystems, we initially used 16S rRNA sequencing to characterize the larval gut microbiota of Chilo suppressalis, an important agricultural pest, exposed to a diet containing Cd. The species richness, diversity, and composition of the gut microbial community was then analyzed. Results revealed that while the richness (Chao1 and ACE) of gut microbiota in larvae exposed to Cd was not significantly affected, diversity (Shannon and Simpson) was reduced due to changes in species distribution and relative abundance. Overall, the most abundant genus was Enterococcus, while the abundance of the genera Micrococcaceae and Faecalibaculum in the control significantly superior to that in Cd-exposed pests. Phylogenetic investigation of microbial communities by the reconstruction of unobserved states (PICRUSt) showed that the intestinal microorganisms appear to participate in 34 pathways, especially those used in environmental information processing and the metabolism of the organism. This study suggests that the gut microbiota of C. suppressalis are significantly impacted by Cd exposure and highlights the importance of the gut microbiome in host stress responses and negative effects of Cd pollution in agroecosystems.

Near-Term Forecasting of Terrestrial Mobile Species Distributions for Adaptive Management Under Extreme Weather Events.

Across the globe, mobile species are key components of ecosystems. Migratory birds and nomadic antelope can have considerable conservation, economic or societal value, while irruptive insects can be major pests and threaten food security. Extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity under ongoing climate change, are driving rapid and unforeseen shifts in mobile species distributions. This challenges their management, potentially leading to population declines, or exacerbating the adverse impacts of pests. Near-term, within-year forecasting may have the potential to anticipate mobile species distribution changes during extreme weather events, thus informing adaptive management strategies. Here, for the first time, we assess the robustness of near-term forecasting of the distribution of a terrestrial species under extreme weather. For this, we generated near-term (2 weeks to 7 months ahead) distribution forecasts for a crop pest that is a threat to food security in southern Africa, the red-billed quelea Quelea quelea. To assess performance, we generated hindcasts of the species distribution across 13 years (2004-2016) that encompassed two major droughts. We show that, using dynamic species distribution models (D-SDMs), environmental suitability for quelea can be accurately forecast with seasonal lead times (up to 7 months ahead), at high resolution, and across a large spatial scale, including in extreme drought conditions. D-SDM predictive accuracy and near-term hindcast reliability were primarily driven by the availability of training data rather than overarching weather conditions. We discuss how a forecasting system could be used to inform adaptive management of mobile species and mitigate impacts of extreme weather, including by anticipating sites and times for transient management and proactively mobilising resources for prepared responses. Our results suggest that such techniques could be widely applied to inform more resilient, adaptive management of mobile species worldwide.

Using eDNA Sampling to Identify Correlates of Species Occupancy Across Broad Spatial Scales

ABSTRACTAimSpecies presence–absence data can be time‐consuming and logistically difficult to obtain across large spatial extents. Yet these data are important for ensuring changes in species distributions are accurately monitored and are vital for ensuring appropriate conservation actions are undertaken. Here, we demonstrate how environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling can be used to systematically collect species occupancy data rapidly and efficiently across vast spatial domains to improve understanding of factors influencing species distributions.LocationSouth‐eastern Australia.MethodsWe use a widely distributed, but near‐threatened species, the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus), as a test case and undertake an environmentally stratified systematic survey to assess the presence–absence of platypus eDNA at 504 sites across 584,292 km2 of south‐eastern Australia, representing ~37% of the species' extensive distribution. Site occupancy‐detection models were used to analyse how landscape‐ and site‐level factors affect platypus occupancy, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty at the different levels inherent in eDNA sampling (site, water sample replicate and qPCR replicate).ResultsPlatypus eDNA was detected at 272 sites (~54%) with platypuses more likely to occupy sites in catchments with increased runoff and less zero‐flow days, and sites with access to banks suitable for burrowing. Platypuses were less likely to occupy sites in catchments with a high proportion of shrubs and grasslands, or agricultural land use.Main ConclusionsThese data provide an important large‐scale validation of the landscape‐ and site‐level factors influencing platypus occupancy that can be used to inform future conservation efforts. Our case study shows that systematically designed, stratified eDNA surveys provide an efficient means to understand how environmental characteristics affect species occupancy across broad environmental gradients. The methods employed here can be applied to aquatic and semi‐aquatic species globally, providing unprecedented opportunities to understand biodiversity status and change and provide insights for current and future conservation actions.

Characterizing long-term tree species dynamics in Canada’s forested ecosystems using annual time series remote sensing data

Characterizing long-term tree species dynamics in Canada’s forested ecosystems using annual time series remote sensing data

Effects of extra resource and harvesting on the pattern formation for a predation system

Effects of extra resource and harvesting on the pattern formation for a predation system

Vulvovaginal candidiasis clinical signs, and distribution of Candida species

Background: Vulvovaginal candidiasis is a global issue of concern due to its association with economic costs, sexually transmitted infections, and ascending genital tract infection. The aim of this study was to determine clinical signs and species distribution of Candida species causing vulvovaginal candidiasis. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from December to June 2021-2024 among 400 women attending Obstetrics and Gynecology outpatient clinics in Sana'a City. The study involved collecting vaginal swabs from each participant and analyzing them in a microbiology laboratory. The swabs were used to identify yeast cells, fungal culturing, and germ tube formation tests. The study also used the VITEK II system to confirm species identification, with the VITEK® 2 YST ID identification card being used to identify Candida species. Results: A study of 400 women found that 91.8% were infected with Candida albicans, while 8.2% were infected with other non-Candida albicans. The majority were aged 26-35, with secondary education being the most common. Most were married, with 1-3 pregnancies. The most common sign distribution was vaginal discharge with a 99.5% prevalence. Dysuria was the lowest, with a 65.0% prevalence. Candida species were most frequently isolated, with Candida albicans being the most common. Candida tropicalis was found in 1 out of 6 women, while Candida dubliniensis, Candida famata, Candida glabrata, and Candida lusitaniae were found in 1 out of 6 women. Conclusions: The high prevalence rate of vulvovaginal candidiasis and observation of a low prevalence rate of nonalbicans Candida species in the present study substantiate the importance of conducting continuous epidemiological surveys to measure changes in species distribution from C. albicans to non-albicans Candida species in Yemen.