Changing Socio-economic Conditions Research Articles

Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires

Fires can be ignited by people or by natural causes, which are almost exclusively lightning strikes. Discriminating between lightning and anthropogenic fires is paramount when estimating impacts of changing socioeconomic and climatological conditions on fire activity. Here we use reference data of fire ignition locations, cause and burned area from seven world regions in a machine-learning approach to obtain a global attribution of lightning and anthropogenic ignitions as dominant fire ignition sources. We show that 77% (uncertainty expressed as one standard deviation = 8%) of the burned area in extratropical intact forests currently stems from lightning and that these areas will probably experience 11 to 31% more lightning per degree warming. Extratropical forests are of global importance for carbon storage. They currently experience high fire-related forest losses and have, per unit area, among the largest fire emissions on Earth. Future increases in lightning in intact forest may therefore compound the positive feedback loop between climate change and extratropical wildfires.

Prevalence of <i>Helicobacter pylori</i>-associated diseases in the Ural Federal District

Introduction Helicobacter pylori has the most pronounced oncogenic potential among known biological carcinogens of humans. Helicobacter positivity leads to the development of chronic gastritis and with prolonged persistence of infection in the gastric mucosa it is associated with the development of atrophic gastritis and adenocarcinoma of the stomach. According to international data, the prevalence of infection in Russia corresponds to the level of countries with low socio-economic status. The domestic literature contains data for a limited number of reggions, such as North-West Russia, Siberia and the Far East.The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis among patients residing in the Ural Federal District and to identify risk factors for these diseases using modern diagnostic methods used in clinical practice.Materials and methods Observational non-interventional anonymous cross-sectional study of 11,721 primary patients among those tested for H. pylori infection residing in the Ural Federal District. 13C-urease breath test was performed in 10,882 patients, FGDS with gastric mucosal biopsy according to OLGA and histological evaluation of biopsy specimens – in 839 patients.Results The prevalence of H. pylori infection among primary care patients by 13C-UT was 46.9 % and that of chronic atrophic gastritis by histological evaluation of a biopsy specimen was 24.9 %. The risk of chronic atrophic gastritis was higher in those infected with H. pylori (OR 1.71; 95 % CI: 1.24–2.37, p = 0.002) and in patients over 60 years old.Discussion The resulting prevalence of H. pylori infection in the Ural Federal District is below the levels reported in the current literary for Russia. The increasing prevalence of infection with age confirms the principle that the prevalence of infection depends on changing socio-economic conditions in a generation. The observed prevalence of chronic atrophic gastritis is comparable with the national data. The risk of gastric mucosal atrophy increases with age and in the presence of H. pylori infection, which prompts active screening of gastropathology in this category of individuals.Conclusion The prevalence of H. pylori infection and atrophic gastritis among primary patients, as determined by reference diagnostics, was 46.9 % and 24.9 %, respectively.

Socio-Economic Risks of Internal Migration Processes and Their Impact on the Socio-Territorial Mobility of the Population of Kazakhstan

Migration, which is a consequence of the uneven socio-economic development, poverty, and environmental problems of various regions, on the one hand, has significant potential and can help improve economic and social conditions, and on the other hand, it becomes a generator of socioeconomic and other risks, influencing the strengthening inequalities. The purpose of the article is to identify the main forms of socio-economic risks of internal migration of the population of Kazakhstan and assess their impact on the socio-territorial stability of the regional society. To assess the socioeconomic factors affecting the dynamics of internal migration population flows, a systematic approach was applied, and methods of component analysis of the regional standard of living, sampling and grouping of quantitative and qualitative indicators were used. The main directions of the impact of socio-economic risks of migration on the socio-territorial mobility of the population are substantiated. The main forms of socio-economic risks of internal migration of the Kazakhstan population are determined. It is substantiated that the closest relationship exists between the level and quality of life systems and the increase in migration flows. The study concluded that migration is a complex process, which is influenced by the changing socio-economic conditions for the economy and society development and affects the standard of living and lifestyle of the population. This necessitates not only the regulation of migration processes in the country but also the development of mechanisms to reduce the socio-economic risks of migration and their impact on life support systems and livelihoods.

Perubahan Sosial Ekonomi dan Pola Pikir Masyarakat dengan Munculnya Objek Wisata Puncak Nirwana Lampung

Lampung Province is intensively developing local tourism because natural resources (SDA) are very supportive of the potential for tourism development. One of the tourist attractions is Puncak Nirwana, which is located in Kupang Jernih village, Sukarame II, West Teluk Betung District, Bandar Lampung City. The progress of the current tourism economy is very strategic. Many local residents are motivated to make progress on tourism potential in their respective areas. With the increase in the tourism economy, it is one of the projects that can provide benefits for local residents. This is also driven by the progress of the tourism economy which is currently skyrocketing and provides benefits for many parties. This research was conducted using a qualitative method and a descriptive approach. The emergence of the Puncak Nirwana Lampung tourist attraction has clearly had an impact on changing socio-economic conditions for the surrounding community, apart from changing the income of the local community, the emergence of the Puncak Nirwana Lampung tourist attraction has changed the mindset and perspective of the community, where people are more open and motivated to learn about managing tourist attractions. promotion for the progress of their environment. The advice given is the need for more serious and consistent management so that the Puncak Nirwana Lampung tourist attraction can survive for a long time and be able to compete again with other tourist attractions.

Multifunctional agriculture in a peri-urban fringe: Chinese farmers’ responses to shifts in policy and changing socio-economic conditions

Recent Five-Year Plans and No. 1 Central Documents have emphasised the need for Chinese agriculture to play multiple functions to enhance rural development, alleviate rural poverty and increase agricultural productivity. The concept of Chinese agriculture as multifunctional is explored, linking it to specific policy aims, with three key historical phases of the development of multifunctional agriculture (MFA) recognised. MFA has progressed rapidly in rural-urban fringes across China, and its recent evolution is investigated herewith within two case-study districts (Baqiao and Lintong) in the megacity of Xi’an, Shaanxi Province. Since the economic reforms of the late 1970s, farmers in the area have greatly increased horticultural production to supply the substantial local urban market, displacing traditional grain cultivation, although much high-quality farmland has been lost to urban development, especially in Baqiao. The city has also supplied tourists for farm-based tourism activities (nong jia le), including pick-your-own fruit. A questionnaire survey of sample farm households in 17 villages in the two districts generated detailed information on land management, including farm-based enterprises, participation in co-operatives, marketing, and both recent and future planned changes to farms. Factor analysis of mixed (qualitative and quantitative) data (FAMD) and hierarchical clustering of principal components (HCPC) were used to examine typical characteristics of MFA in the peri-urban fringe. This yielded five principal dimensions of farming, with on-farm environmental actions as a key characteristic. There were also three different clusters of farmers, differentiated between commercial horticultural production, contrasting less intensive part-time farmers with farmers in co-operatives and/or producing for ‘dragonhead’ enterprises. Renewed government support for grain cultivation to increase food availability has led to a minor reversion to cereal production, while multifunctionality has been impacted negatively by the Covid pandemic, with reduced tourist numbers. Loss of revenue from tourism is prompting farmers to search for other income streams via increased agricultural outputs, new marketing outlets, and contributions to a more diversified rural economy involving value-adding to agricultural products.

Trends in air pollutants emissions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas under different socioeconomic scenarios

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and its surrounding areas are undergoing rapid changes in socioeconomic conditions, activity sectors, and emission levels. These changes underscore the significance of conducting local environmental assessments in the future and generating air pollutant emission forecasts necessary for effective evaluation. Current pollutants emissions pathways exhibit regional limitation since their based historical inventory could not accurately reflect the emission characteristics in QTP. This study constructed a high spatial resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) atmospheric pollutant emissions dataset in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding Areas (QTPA) based on updated emission inventory and various socioeconomic scenarios. We found that the pollutant emissions levels are distinct among different social development scenarios, with SSP3–7.0 demonstrating the highest magnitude of emissions. Regional and sectoral contributions exhibit substantial variations. Notably, solid fuel combustion originating from residential sectors in Northeast India and open fires in Myanmar are identified as high-density sources of PM2.5 emissions. Current pollutant emission patterns in the QTPA are more akin to SSP2–4.5, however, specific regions such as Qinghai and Tibet have exhibited more pronounced trends of emission reduction. The comparison with previous datasets reveals that the predicted pollutant emissions in this study are lower than Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (SMIP) dataset but higher than Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) dataset due to the revised inventory data and model variations, in which the latter might be the main obstacle to accurate emissions prediction.

The principle of operation as a procedural tool of administrative jurisdiction

Introduction. By its very nature, administrative proceedings can be considered the main tool for protecting the rights and interests of individuals and legal entities in the public legal field against violations by subjects of authority. Such protection must be based on a fair, impartial and timely hearing. A legal and well-founded decision of the court, which resolves the dispute on the merits, may lose its significance or significantly reduce its importance for the protection of the rights of the individual, if it is adopted with an unreasonable delay. The main direction in the development of the modern administrative process in most countries of the world is characterized by the optimal ratio of the procedural activities of the parties and the court. The classic model of competitiveness is inferior to another model, the essence of which is the implementation of the ideas of judicial economy. In the science of the administrative process, the time limits of the process are associated with the implementation of the requirements of efficiency, speed, concentration, and procedural economy. These concepts determine the place and meaning of procedural terms in the mechanism of legal regulation of procedural legal relations and are related to the fulfillment of the task of timeliness of judicial protection, enshrined in Art. 2 of the Code of Administrative Procedure of Ukraine. Short list of main results. The article is devoted to the study of the concept and essence of the principle of efficiency as a procedural tool in the administrative proceedings of Ukraine. It has been established that the importance of this principle is due to the constant dynamics and specificity of the administrative process, changes in socio-economic conditions in the state, and the desire to raise the national standards of the judiciary to European standards. It is justified that the principle of efficiency is reflected in the content of procedural norms of administrative legislation. Conclusions. The principle of efficiency is an independent principle of administrative proceedings that requires immediate legal regulation in procedural legislation.

THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES OF THE VIEW OF HUMAN IN THE CONFUCIAN PHILOSOPHY IN PRE QIN DYNASTY

The view of human in Confucian philosophy in Pre Qin Dynasty arose not only from the change in socio-economic conditions but also from the deterioration of social morality. Facing that situation, thipkers of this period began to study human to come up with solutions to help the rulers stabilize society. Despite the presence of past studies on the topicand views on people in Confucian philosophy during the Pre Qin period, there (xists gaps for further research. This study attempted to understand through a document review and extensive in-depth research procedure the theoretical underpjnnings of the perspectives on the origin of man, on human nathře, on hụman rples and positions and on educating people in order to develop perfect people and maintain civil order in society. The methodology used was documehtation research and content analysis of the data collected. The document reséafch method was particularly helpful in investigating categorizing and analyzing physical sources, most commonly written documents in the social, public or dígital world. The study found out that the Confucianism represents a legitimate doctrine of the Pre Qin philosophy to build social stability social harmony and peace. The Confucianists of Pre Qin also advocated the need for a personal cultivation, cultivation of the body, family, country, and the whole world, and use it as the basis of the methodology for governing the country. Howeyer, for this purpose, the study recommends that people need to be educated to know the way to be human

A Quality Control Improvement Model That Takes into Account the Sustainability Concept and KPIs

Nowadays, in addition to quality aspects, social and environmental issues are also a source of competitive advantage, as a result of changing socio-economic conditions and observed trends. The purpose of the study was to create a model for improving quality control in line with the concept of sustainable development. The model captures the microfoundational approach, and allows identifying quality capability with the idea of sustainable development. The proposed method is based on analyses of the characteristic parameters of methods for detecting aluminum casting nonconformities using automated or semi-automated nondestructive methods. The interdisciplinary approach takes into account indicators from the leading areas of sustainable development (economic, environmental and social dimensions) to determine the gradation of detection methods. Verification of the model confirmed its usefulness in foundry companies. As a result, a ranking of the total efficiency of the analyzed detection methods used in the quality control of the studied product was obtained. This enabled the development of energy, emission and cost optimization of the inspection process while maintaining the expected level of quality. Further research directions will concern the expansion of the model with additional key indicators related to the concept of pure quality control and automation of the implementation of analysis.

TRANSFORMATION OF ENTERPRISE HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM WITHINTHE POST-INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIETY

This article endeavors to examine the profound influence of post-industrial paradigms on personnel management systems in various enterprises. Given the transformative shifts in the economic, technological, and social landscapes, it has become imperative to reassess prevailing approaches to personnel management, whereby contemporary personnel management must be undergirded by several pivotal trends, including but not limited to, flexibility, the escalating significance of knowledge and technology, emotional intelligence, and enhanced colleague interconnectivity. The article justifies the need to change approaches to personnel management in light of changing socio-economic conditions and highlights the main directions for transforming personnel management systems. Key aspects that must be considered when reforming personnel management systems in the context of post-industrial societal development are detailed in the article, including the need to be prepared for changes in company structure, culture, and communication, as well as for the development of new methods for evaluating work and training employees.The article also emphasizes that personnel management should be oriented towards achieving results and meeting the needs of customers, enabling enterprises to be competitive in the market. Special attention is focused on the importance of adhering to sustainable development principles, which are recognized by the global community as necessary for ensuring the futureof the planet. Equality between men and women in personnel management, inclusivity, and diversity are also important, as they help maintain equality and diversity in the workforce, ensure effective work, and reduce the risk of discrimination. The act of extrapolating the findings of the article would serve to aid enterprise management in gaining a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities associated with personnel management in the context of post-industrial societal evolution.

Impact of Entry Point Activities (EPAs) on Changes of Socio-economic Conditions of Watershed Community in the Devipatnam Mandal of East Godavari District, Andhra Pradesh

The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) watershed development program was implemented in the Devipatnam mandal of the west Godavari district of Andhra Pradesh. Introducing watershed development programs to the community through Entry Point Activities (EPAs) has always been recognized as an important activity. The Entry Point Activities (EPAs) were implemented to establish togetherness with the community, strengthening and sustaining it throughout the program and beyond. The present study focused on the assessment of outcomes from Entry Point Activities and their impact on changes inthe socio-economic conditions of the watershed community. The study covered two PMKSY Projects covering four micro watersheds of Batch-V sanctioned in Devipatnam mandal of East Godavari district in Andhra Pradesh. Stratified random sampling was adopted for this study covering 5% of households out of the total households in the study area. Three types of EPAs (RO Plant, Tent houses and Solar street lights) were executed in PMKSY project areas which bring changes in the socio-economic conditions of the watershed community.

Review and Analysis of the Motivations Associated with Urban Gardening in the Pandemic Period

This paper examines people’s motives for urban gardening during the pandemic waves of 2020 and 2021. Interest in this practice has often ebbed and flowed in response to changing socioeconomic conditions and depended on positive effects in terms of social integration, community and individual health, urban regeneration, and food security. While several studies have documented these effects well with reference to the pre-pandemic period, few have detailed their existence—and eventually variations—during the lockdowns. These periods have probably reignited interest in this practice. Unlike other recreational activities, urban gardening was not restricted by regional and national governments because they considered this practice to be beneficial for food provisioning. To explore the motivations behind this newfound interest, this paper illustrates the results of a literature review on the articles published on this topic in the period from early 2020 to mid-2022. Findings reveal that the most widespread motivations are those related to personal and community wellbeing as well as food supply security and include the opportunity to spend time having fun outside the home. In addition, community resilience is a motivation that had not been detected in the past.

Hygienic evaluation of television advertising and adherence to consumer rights

Introduction. In the changing socio-economic conditions, the problem of advertising for children, using a child’s image, the impact of advertising on children’s food consumption and the consequences for their health, has not been sufficiently studied. The choice of unhealthy foods has public health implications, increasing the risks of developing noncommunicable diseases. The use of children’s images in advertising is of concern to specialists in the field of preserving the health of children, since the peculiarities of development and imperfection of legislation in the field of advertising make adolescents vulnerable to the effects of advertising promotion of food. The aim of the study was a qualitative and quantitative analysis of food and beverages advertising intended for children and adolescents on Russian television, and an assessment of the impact of television advertising with the participation of children on the consumer. Materials and methods. A cross-sectional study of food and beverages advertising for children, broadcast on TNT’s Carousel channel (sample of 513 ads), was conducted. To assess the impact of advertising on the potential ability of the consumer to purchase the advertised product, a random sample of undergraduate students was selected. Results. In 36.7% of the analyzed advertisements appeared products with excessive sugar content, chips, fast food. Conclusion. On children’s television channels, more than half of the commercials promote food products that are not actually products of the daily diet of kid food, which creates distorted ideas about rational nutrition among children’s audiences. In 24.5% of commercials with the participation of children, there is false information about products containing sugar and rich in trans fats.

Land use plan and changes in the land use planning system toward its realization: A case study of Sapporo City

AbstractThe purpose of this study is to clarify the long‐term evolution of land use planning and land use planning system operation, as well as the actual status of the population distribution and urban area formation at each stage, using the City of Sapporo as a case study. Sapporo City formulated its first basic urban plan in the 1959 Sapporo comprehensive city plan (SCCP). Since its launch in 1971, the Sapporo long‐term comprehensive plan (LTCP) was consistently employed as a masterplan, and land use plans have been established within it. SCCP emphasizes the need to control expansion of urban areas due to the crisis of sprawling urban proliferation. In response, LTCP developed a land use plan consisting of multiple cores and three types of residential areas sorted by their density. To achieve this goal, the land use planning system was revised. In this process, the basic approach to urban planning has remained consistent for almost half a century. Namely, “Positioning LTCPs as Urban Masterplan”, “Controlling the outward expansion of urban areas” and “Multi‐centered core urban structure and layout of residential areas” were continued. In parallel, the plan was flexibly modified in response to changing socioeconomic conditions.

Socio-economic Impact and Adapting Strategies of Inter Basin Transfer by Kulekhani Hydro-electricity Project Nepal

This paper tries to assess the changes in socio-economic conditions in downstream dewatered area from Kulekhani dam after inter-basin transfer of river water from Kulekhani basin to Rapti basin since 1982. After decline in crop productivity because of decline in irrigation particularly during winter season, livelihood options are affected. Downstream people are depending for water on different resources such as natural springs; tap etc. Traditional water mills are either non-functioning or its efficiency is declined due to decline in water availability. Out of 16, 9 water mills have been closed, remaining are hardly conducting. Almost 90% fishes have decreased and some species of fishes have disappeared from the river therefore, Fishermen who were economically dependent on fishing activities have forced to replace their traditional fishing occupation. People have felt new experiences such as temperature increased and appearance of mosquitoes. Upper reach has almost completely dried but lower reach has little water available in the river because of its tributaries thus upper reach is more effected than lower reach. The risk of artificial uncertain flood due to high dam may burst by natural or unnatural forces and during the period of opening dam gates due to overflow, as there are no enough early warning systems developed particularly at the time of opening the dam gates, the unexpected risk has increased in downstream area.

Identification of Regional Factors Affecting Management of Territories: Formation of Residence and Social Infrastructure System in Urban and Rural Settlements in Kazakhstan

Ensuring the socio-economic development of a country and its territories as a key area of public administration includes the choice of directions and approaches to improving the efficiency of management processes. In the study, the authors focused on the processes of settlement, social infrastructure, and architectural and planning organization of populated areas, which are important factors influencing the development of territories. The article aims at developing a conceptual and theoretical model of the management system of the settlement and social infrastructure in the Republic of Kazakhstan. To attain this objective, the following methods were used: the analysis of documents (archives and historical materials), architectural design methods, socio-economic and demographic analysis, SWOT analysis, and population survey. Data collection was carried out during the expedition and from 1991 to 2020 based on monitoring the forms and methods of managing territories in changing socio-economic conditions, which contributes to the improvement of the settlement system of urban and rural settlements, as well as on the way of life of the population, and the impact of historical, climatic, natural, and socio-economic factors on the spatial organization in the territory. Based on the study results, a conceptual and theoretical model of organization management in the settlement system and social infrastructure of Kazakhstan was developed which reduces the level of urbanization in rural areas and increases the comfort of living of the population and the opportunities for attracting tourists.

Fertility and Reproductive Attitudes of the Population Before and After the Epidemiological Situation Worse

Introduction. The preservation and growth of the population is a key task of the Russian Federation Demographic Policy Concept until 2025. Nevertheless, in recent years, the achievement of this task has been difficult due to escalation of socio-economic and demographic problems. The purpose of the article is to determine and compare birth rates and reproductive attitudes of the population in various periods after the beginning of the 2000s, which differ in the socio-economic context and the list of demographic policy measures, including under the latest circumstances – the worsening epidemiological situation. Materials and Methods. The study is based on a statistical analysis of time series data indicators for conditional generations that reflect the demographic situation of fertility in Russia and the Komi Republic – crude and total fertility rates, natural population growth (decline), the number of women in reproductive age (15–49 years) in total structure of the female population, the number of women aged 15–24 in the structure of the female population of reproductive ages. Also, the methodological basis of the presented work is based on the results of three sociological studies, conducted by a team of scientists of The Institute for Social Economic and Energy problems of the North of the North Federal Research Center Komi Science Centre UB RAS in 2008, 2013 and 2020 among the population of the Komi Republic. Results. It is revealed that the most successful period of demographic development in Russia was 2013–2016 and in the Komi Republic in 2011–2016, which consists in achieving natural population growth. Further, there was a decrease in the birth rate. It is determined that the situation in the field of population reproduction has worsened in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and the Komi Republic. The study reveals that reproductive attitudes in all generations are the best in 2013. The significant success in this period is the growth of reproductive attitudes even among young cohorts. Further in 2020, the expected number of children decreased in all age cohorts. In 2020, the pattern remains – the lowest reproductive orientations are in the two youngest age cohorts of 1996–2000 and 2001–2005 birth. Discussion and Conclusion. The main result of the work was the confirmation on the example of the northern region of Russia the thesis that the growth of the standard of living is accompanied by an increase in the reproductive attitudes of the population and the birth rate, and vice versa. From a theoretical point of view, the usefulness of the article lies in the description of the processes of fertility and the dynamics of the reproductive attitudes of the population, taking into account the changing socio-economic and epidemiological conditions. From a practical point of view, the information obtained can be useful as an assessment of future fertility prospects and confirmation of the high role of the socio-economic well-being of the population in addressing the issue of increasing the level of children in the families.

Modernization of Higher Education for Tourism and Hospitality in Contemporary Conditions: Socio-Philosophical Analysis

The article presents the results of the theoretical generalization of approaches to modeling modern tourism education as a socio-cultural phenomenon, which has entered the stage of new development under the influence of social needs and external influences. It is indicated that because of socio-political and economic changes in the world, the domestic tourism industry has been affected by numerous negative heterogeneous and multidirectional factors. This situation has led to quite profound transformations in the Russian tourism industry. It is emphasized that now the industry business community makes higher demands on the professional level of employees as a key factor in the effective operation of industry’s enterprises and their development in changing socio-economic conditions. The professional community notes the urgent need for growth in public understanding of the prestige of both the tourism industry itself and tourism professional education. The article emphasizes that the domestic tourism industry will require significant quantitative changes in personnel potential in the coming years. The quality of training should ensure the formation of competencies that allow the effective use of the created infrastructure to create a level of service that meets the expectations and demands of consumers of tourist services. The author notes that the transformation of the domestic tourism industry predetermines the change in models of tourism education. The formation of tourist education models is considered through the interconnection of educational content mastered by students and learning activities, providing high-quality and complete learning. The article provides a socio-philosophical analysis of the main models of tourism education in Russia, highlighting some general disadvantages and advantages of each model. The variety of methodological tools used in contemporary training of specialists in tourism and hospitality, considering modern conditions of transition to intensive development of domestic tourism, is traced.

КОНЦЕПТУАЛЬНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ПОТРЕБНОСТИ РЫНКА ТРУДА В КВАЛИФИЦИРОВАННЫХ СПЕЦИАЛИСТАХ НА ОСНОВЕ АГЕНТ-ОРИЕНТИРОВАННОГО ПОДХОДА

One of the most important conditions for a well-functioning and developing economy is a balanced labour force. The mismatch between the demand for labour and its supply leads to higher unemployment, lower living standards and quality of life, an expanding shadow economy and other negative consequences for the population. At the same time, the shortage of qualified labour affects the efficiency of enterprises. Socio-economic changes and crisis phenomena have a significant impact on the formation of the labour force. In the post-reform period, the quality of labour resources has declined significantly and the link between the vocational education system and production has been severed. To assess the situation on the labour market, a forecast of the labour resources balance is used. According to the methodology approved by the Ministry of Labour of the Russian Federation, labour resource balance forecasts are based on expert estimates and extrapolation of data, which cannot provide the necessary reliability under changing conditions in the economy. Forecasting labour market demand in the short, medium and long term using appropriate economic and mathematical methods and models is becoming relevant. Analysis of existing forecasting models shows that most of them are based on forecasts of demography and agesex structure, extrapolating retrospective data on employment and unemployment in the labour market. At the same time, researchers in this direction pay little attention to the behavioural characteristics of economic agents and structural changes in the labour market that may occur in the digital transformation of the economy. A model based on the agent-based approach, which takes into account scenario options of economic and human resource policies, is proposed for forecasting labour demand. Applying this model, it is possible to forecast labour resources under different impact scenarios, such as demographic conditions, changes in socio-economic conditions, disappearance or emergence of new professions in the labour market and education, obtain a set of prospective strategies of agent behaviour, assess the degree of impact on labour resource formation and choose the most effective scenario of impact.

Slum Upgrading and Changes in the Welfare of Home-Based Entrepreneurs in Kampung Bahari Tambaklorok, Indonesia

This study examines changes in community welfare, especially among home-based entrepreneurs in Kampung Bahari Tambaklorok, Semarang, Indonesia. This study hypothesizes that after planning the development of Kampung Bahari Tambaklorok as a tourist destination for five out of twenty years, there has been a change in the socio-economic welfare conditions of the community, primarily home-based enterprise actors. Research data were obtained through observations, questionnaires, and interviews. In addition, this study conducted a descriptive analysis, scoring, and Likert Scale to obtain an overview of changes in socio-economic conditions based on community perceptions. These two analyses examine the changes in welfare experienced by the Tambaklorok community, especially home-based entrepreneurs. Thus, it may impact the sustainability of development planning for the Kampung Bahari Tambaklorok Semarang. However, the result of this study is that only the environmental aspects have an impact. Meanwhile, the other two economic and social aspects have stayed the same. Therefore, the results show that, in general, the welfare condition of the Tambaklorok community did not change after the development of the Tambaklorok Tourism Village in the first five years. Therefore, it needs further action. Keywords: environmental, home-based enterprises, slum, socio-economic, sustainable settlement