Real Exchange Rate Changes Research Articles

Contract farming risks: A quantitative assessment

The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost-benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV), a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia; the international price of paprika; and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilising and increasing yields. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and changes in international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.

Quality, trade, and exchange rate pass-through

We investigate theoretically and empirically the effects of real exchange rate changes on the behavior of firms exporting multiple products with heterogeneous levels of quality. Our model, which features a demand elasticity that falls with quality, predicts more pricing-to-market and a smaller response of export volumes to a real depreciation for higher quality goods. We provide strong support for the model predictions using a unique data set of Argentinean firm-level wine export values and volumes between 2002 and 2009 combined with experts wine ratings to measure quality. The heterogeneity we find in the response of export prices and volumes to changes in exchange rates remains robust to alternative measures of quality, samples, and specifications.

Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model

Recent advances in time-series and cointegration analysis have allowed for the estimation of the nonlinear effects of currency depreciations on countries’ trade balances. This study examines Mexico’s bilateral trade with 13 trade partners, applying both the linear and the nonlinear versions of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration and error-correction methodologies, to test whether peso appreciations affect trade differently than do peso depreciations. The linear ARDL model generates significant long-run coefficients for six partners, implying that while peso depreciations improve Mexico’s trade balance with them, peso appreciation hurt it. However, the nonlinear ARDL model finds that peso appreciation hurts Mexico’s trade balance with three additional partners, and that peso depreciation improves it with one additional partner. Additional statistical tests reveal that indeed the effects of peso appreciation are significantly different than effects of peso depreciation, supporting the asymmetric effects of real exchange rate changes.

Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance: Commodity Level Evidence from Turkish Bilateral Trade Data1

An initial currency depreciation/devaluation is expected to worsen the trade balance in short run, before leading to an improvement in the long run. Given the persistent nature of its current account deficits and large oscillations in Turkish Lira, prospective effects of exchange rate policy prescriptions raise academic interest in Turkish economy. This paper aims to investigate the links between the real exchange rate and the balance of trade. By employing cointegration technique and error correction modelling between Turkey and her major trading partner Germany, presence of J- Curve phenomenon is tested on a monthly basis over the period 2002 to 2014. We employed disaggregate data on commodity level. Use of disaggregated bilateral trade data avoids any aggregation bias. Furthermore, disaggregation at commodity level permits to weigh the effect of changes in real exchange rate on the individual industry trade balance. Empirical results provide some support for the existence of j-curve effect. Nevertheless, no single pattern of exchange rate - trade balance relationship is found to exist.

Contract farming risks: A quantitative assessment

The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost-benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV), a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia; the international price of paprika; and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilising and increasing yields. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and changes in international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.

Accounting for real exchange rate changes at long time horizons

Engel (1999) introduced real exchange rate accounting to determine the importance of nontradables for real exchange rate movements. We extend his approach in two directions. First, we identify a potential bias in the mean squared error (MSE) measure used in previous work. Second, using the corrected MSE measure we provide new empirical evidence that nontradables explain real exchange rate movements but only at really long horizons – over decades not years.

The Euro's Effect on Trade Balance Dynamics

During the pre-EMU period changes in real effective exchange rate or faster-than-trading-partners growth rates Granger caused changes in trade balance in most of the EMU-12 countries. However, our data driven article provides evidence that after the adoption of euro, these Granger causalities disappeared. We decompose trade balances into intra balances (trade balance vis-a-vis the euro area) and extra balances (trade balance vis-a-vis the rest of the world), and find that the disappearance of dynamic feedback effect typically occurred in the intra balances rather than in the extra balances. Our results imply that debtor countries cannot reduce their trade deficits in the short-run by enhancing price competitiveness or by adopting austerity policies. Only in Finland the trade balance has improved (or deteriorated) as a result of real effective exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) during the EMU period.

The Source of Real and Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Thailand: Real Shock or Nominal Shock

This paper examines the source of exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand. We employed a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model with the long-run neutrality restriction of Blanchard and Quah (1989) to investigate the changes in real and nominal exchange rates from 1994 to 2015. In this paper, we assume that there are two types of shocks which related to exchange rate movements: real shocks and nominal shocks. The empirical analysis indicates that real shocks are the fundamental component in driving real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations.

Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Indonesia

We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006) approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007), two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movement of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rate changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in the real exchange rate behavior may be strongly justified by the implementation of free-floating exchange rate system since August 1997. Second, the shift of the real exchange rate behavior after 2000 does not necessarily affect the current account dynamics. Empirical evidence confirms that the variance of current account post 2000 remains largely due to temporary shocks. Albeit having increasing influence, permanent shocks have insignificant effect in explaining fluctuations of the current account. In this sense, the current account surplus after 2000 is attributed largely to nominal variables such as price increase, while the impact of productivity improvement is still limited.Keywords: Current Account; Real Exchange Rate; Asian Crises 1997/1998AbstrakKami menganalisa peranan faktor permanen dan temporer dalam memengaruhi neraca berjalan dan dinamika nilai tukar mata uang riil Indonesia sebelum dan setelah tahun 2000. Mengadopsi pendekatan Lee dan Chinn (1998; 2006) serta Chinn et al. (2007), telah diperoleh dua kesimpulan. Pertama, kami mengonfirmasi bahwa pola nilai tukar mata uang riil telah berubah sejak tahun 2000. Identifikasi menunjukkan bahwa shock permanen adalah penyebab utama pergerakan nilai tukar mata uang riil setelah tahun 2000, sedangkan di periode sebelum tahun 2000 perubahan nilai tukar mata uang riil dicirikan oleh dominansi shock temporer. Perubahan pola nilai tukar mata uang tersebut dapat berakar dari penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas sejak Agustus 1997. Kedua, perubahan pola nilai tukar mata uang setelah tahun 2000 tidak serta merta memengaruhi dinamika neraca berjalan. Bukti empiris mengonfirmasi bahwa variansi neraca berjalan setelah tahun 2000 tetap disebabkan utamanya oleh shock temporer. Meskipun menunjukkan peningkatan pengaruh, shock permanen memiliki pengaruh yang tidak signifikan dalam menjelaskan fluktuasi neraca berjalan. Atau dalam kata lain, surplus neraca berjalan setelah tahun 2000 dapat diatribusikan kepada variabel nominal seperti kenaikan harga, sedangkan pengaruh peningkatan produktivitas masih cenderung terbatas.Kata kunci: Neraca Transaksi Berjalan; Nilai Tukar Riil; Krisis Asia 1997/1998JEL classifications: F31; F41

Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?

We analyze and quantify the determinants of medium-term real exchange rate (RER) changes. First, we discuss the sources of asymmetric shocks causing exchange rate variability and the role of the RER as a shock absorber or generator. Secondly, we use data for 21 advanced and late transition economies to gauge the extent to which medium-term bilateral real exchange rate variability can be explained by various fundamental factors. Using Bayesian model averaging, we find that out of 22 factors under consideration, four types of dissimilarities within a given pair of economies are likely to be included in the true model: dissimilarities as regards (i) financial development, (ii) per capita income growth, (iii) central bank autonomy, and (iv) the structure of the economy. A regression based on these four factors indicates that they explain about 96 percent of the sample average level of three year RER variability. In the logic of our approach, the remaining part of the total variability represents an upper estimate of the influence of the foreign exchange market itself. For our sample, the contribution of the real exchange rate itself to asymmetric shocks therefore appears to be very low.

Tracking the causes of eurozone external imbalances: new evidence and some policy implications

The paper assesses the contribution of key drivers of external imbalances in the Eurozone through the estimation of a panel-data Vector Autoregressive model over 1975–2011. Growth fluctuations, initially associated with demand booms triggered by unusually low interest rates, and later with demand contractions resulting from the crisis and policy adjustments, have played an important role in current account balance fluctuations. Changes in real exchange rates or unit labor costs have played a less important role. Demand shocks have contributed more to current account balance dynamics in the Eurozone periphery than in the core, whereas competitiveness has been a less prominent factor in the periphery but relatively more important in the core. Some broad policy implications of the findings for demand management in a currency union are discussed, including for fiscal policy coordination and macroprudential policies when union members face asymmetric shocks. The role of internal devaluation policies as a means of correcting external imbalances is also reassessed.

Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access

We explore the impact of real exchange rate changes on the performance of Indian manufacturing firms over the period 2000–2012. Our empirical analysis shows that real exchange rate movements have a significant impact on Indian firms’ performance but the impact varies across different firm and industry characteristics. In particular, the impact depends upon the degree of market power, trade orientation, foreign ownership, access to domestic finance and industry concentration. Furthermore, appreciation and depreciation affect firms’ performance differently. Results from Panel-VAR confirm these findings. Overall, our results point toward the need for taking into account firm and industry level heterogeneity in designing policies aimed at managing exchange rate shocks and also the role of greater financial development in currency risk management.

Fiscal policy and the substitution between national and foreign savings

This paper addresses the relationship between fiscal policy, the real exchange rate, national and foreign savings, and investment. It shows how the mechanism of the finance–investment–saving–funding Keynesian circuit (FISF) works in open economies. This is undertaken in an attempt to demonstrate that real exchange rate changes affect the FISF circuit in that they trigger the substitution between national and foreign savings. Thus, domestic investment causes savings, but the distribution of aggregate savings between its national and foreign components depends on the level of the real exchange rate. Finally, we show that if government budget deficits change relative prices in an economy, this worsens the current account balance by triggering substitution between national and foreign savings. Thus, the constraint on investment (and on growth) that can emanate from this process is one that emerges from external forces.

Transmission of Real Exchange Rate to the Manufacturing Sector: Role of Financial Access

We explore the impact of Real Exchange Rate changes on the performance of Indian manufacturing firms over the period 2000-2012. Our empirical analysis shows that real exchange rate movements have a significant impact on Indian firms’ performance but the impact varies across different firm and industry characteristics. In particular the impact depends upon the degree of market power, trade orientation, foreign ownership, access to domestic finance and industry concentration. Further, appreciation and depreciation affect firms’ performance differently. Results from Panel-VAR confirm these findings. Overall, our results point towards the need for taking in to account firm and industry level heterogeneity in designing policies aimed at managing exchange rate shocks and also the role of greater financial development in currency risk management.

Structural change, the real exchange rate and the balance of payments in Mexico, 1960–2012

This paper estimates a structural model of the balance of payments, with disaggregated exports (manufactures and other) and imports (final and intermediate), and a reduced form model of the trade balance for the Mexican economy. The analysis identifies structural changes in the composition of Mexico’s trade and the parameters that affect it across five subperiods marked by statistical breakpoints. The results indicate that a tightening of the balance-of-payments constraint may account for the post-liberalization slowdown in Mexico’s growth only during certain subperiods, and that the impact of real exchange rate changes on the trade balance has diminished, most likely as a result of the increasing integration of export industries into global supply chains. The results also suggest an asymmetry, whereby a country cannot sustain growth above the rate consistent with balance-of-payments equilibrium, as expected, but it can grow persistently below that rate when other constraints are more binding.

Currency Value Strategies

This paper examines the profitability of value strategies based on four different measures of currency valuation. Real exchange rate level strategies generate the largest excess returns on intervals up to 1 month, while real exchange rate changes produce the largest excess returns for intervals of 1-12 months. Purchasing power parity and Big-Mac index based strategies underperform. The returns are not explained by economic state variables or currency risk factors and are larger than estimated transaction costs. A composite strategy based on all four valuation approaches produces superior mean returns but volatility is also higher due to portfolio concentration.

Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances

The Great Financial Crisis coincided with a sizable reduction in global external imbalances, defined as the absolute value of the sum of individual country current account surpluses and deficits relative to global GDP. Although current account balances should not respond to a downturn that is uniform across countries, one that hits countries with current account deficits harder than those with surpluses might result in a decline in the global balance. This paper quantifies the cyclical portion of the current account balance for 35 countries using estimates of the severity of the cycle in each country relative to that of its trading partners in conjunction with three estimates of the sensitivity of the current account balance to changes in the output gap. Two of the estimates are derived from equations linking trade to income and the third is derived from the relationship between changes in current account balances and changes in output gap differentials. The main result is that the bulk of the reduction in the global current account imbalance since 2006 appears to have been structural. Cyclical forces are estimated to account for between 10 and 30 percent of the decline. In the aggregate, the cyclical effect is estimated to be currently holding down the global current account balance by about 1/2 percentage point. However, the size of the cyclical effect is more substantial for some countries. Both surplus and deficit countries have contributed to the decline in the absolute value of the global current account imbalance, but the contribution of the deficit countries is about twice as large as that of the surplus countries. Changes in oil prices have had largely offsetting effects on the global current account balance, but changes in real exchange rates in recent years have contributed to the reduction.

Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances

The Great Financial Crisis coincided with a sizable reduction in global external imbalances, defined as the absolute value of the sum of individual country current account surpluses and deficits relative to global GDP. Although current account balances should not respond to a downturn that is uniform across countries, one that hits countries with current account deficits harder than those with surpluses might result in a decline in the global balance. This paper quantifies the cyclical portion of the current account balance for 35 countries using estimates of the severity of the cycle in each country relative to that of its trading partners in conjunction with three estimates of the sensitivity of the current account balance to changes in the output gap. Two of the estimates are derived from equations linking trade to income and the third is derived from the relationship between changes in current account balances and changes in output gap differentials. The main result is that the bulk of the reduction in the global current account imbalance since 2006 appears to have been structural. Cyclical forces are estimated to account for between 10 and 30 percent of the decline. In the aggregate, the cyclical effect is estimated to be currently holding down the global current account balance by about 1/2 percentage point. However, the size of the cyclical effect is more substantial for some countries. Both surplus and deficit countries have contributed to the decline in the absolute value of the global current account imbalance, but the contribution of the deficit countries is about twice as large as that of the surplus countries. Changes in oil prices have had largely offsetting effects on the global current account balance, but changes in real exchange rates in recent years have contributed to the reduction.

Analisis Penerapan Kebijakan Moneter Suku Bunga Jangka Pendek pada Variabel-variabel Endogen MakroEkonomi Indonesia

This study analyzed the impact of the implementation of monetary policy through short-term interest rates setting on the variation that occurs in the endogenous variables of Indonesian macro economy in the period of 2000-2009 by implementing the Structural Vector Autoregressive approach (SVAR) which is the development of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modelling with Eviews program. By careful examination of the results, this study indicates that the value of interest rate changes is significantly associated with shocks that are associated with monetary policy. The monetary sector is heavily influenced by real GDP shock, liquidity, and inflation shock. However, the monetary sector is only slightly affected by the decomposition of the variance of the exchange rate, which is very sensitive to the inflation shock. The study also indicates that the endogenous variables in the value of changes in interest rates and real exchange rate of rupiah will be close to convergence in the long term. The endogenous variables are more susceptible to changes in variables derived from domestic, such as the level of demand for domestic currency liquidity, compared to variables derived from international capital exposure. Thus, the value of the variable interest rate changes can be used to reduce the potential risks derived from domestic money demand shock.

A Re-examination of Exchange Rate Exposure: Industry-level Analysis of Indian Firms

This study examines the relationship between exchange rate changes and firm value. For this purpose, a sample of 342 Indian non-financial firms grouped into 20 industry portfolios is studied over the period of April 2006 to March 2011. The sensitivity of industry’s stock returns to actual and unanticipated changes in exchange rate is determined. The study reports a higher number of industries significantly exposed to real exchange rate changes than nominal changes which implies that the firms should focus more on their real currency exposure especially in the emerging markets experiencing high inflation. The results also suggest that the Indian industries gain (loss) from the depreciation (appreciation) of the rupee against foreign currencies. The results are robust to the use of bilateral exchange rate and estimation models. The findings have practical and theoretical implications.