Changes In Public Opinion Research Articles

Cultural Conservatism and Opposition to Marriage Equality: The Case of Taiwan

ABSTRACTReligious and political conservatism are the strongest predictors of opposition to same‐sex marriage (SSM) in the West. As marriage equality increasingly becomes a political issue in parts of the world where evangelical Christianity is less common and political parties have not taken clear positions, it is less clear whether the same factors influence public opinion elsewhere. We focus on Taiwan, which reinforced its international reputation as a beacon of liberal values by becoming the first Asian country to legalize SSM, even though the public had just voted against marriage equality in a referendum. Although Christian churches led the opposition to SSM, surveys from before and after the policy change indicate that traditional cultural norms presented greater obstacles to marriage equality than religion. Age and education also had strong impacts on public support for marriage equality, but gender and partisan differences were relatively weak.Related ArticlesGover, Daniel. 2023. “Religious Lobbying and Policy Influence: Christian Interest Group Impacts Around the Legalization of Same‐Sex Marriage in England and Wales.” Politics & Policy 51, no. 6: 1097–1116. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12559.Bramlett, Brittany H. 2012. “The Cross‐Pressures of Religion and Contact with Gays and Lesbians, and Their Impact on Same‐Sex Marriage Opinion.” Politics & Policy, 40, no. 1, 13–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2011.00337.x.Lewis, Gregory B., and Craig W. Gossett. 2008. “Changing Public Opinion on Same‐Sex Marriage: The Case of California.” Politics & Policy, 36, no. 1, 4–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2007.00092.x.

‘This won’t work in Uruguay!’ Taking on Montevideo’s car-centric culture

ABSTRACT This is a story about an urban planner from India and a mobility engineer from Germany whose paths crossed in Uruguay after they both became advocates for walking and cycling. Impacted by the injustice of the all-pervasive car supremacy in their newly adopted city of Montevideo, they individually set out to question the overwhelming car bias in the city’s laws and people’s attitudes. Recognising the effectiveness of each other’s approaches, they joined forces, forming a formidable partnership and taking on the role of change-agents for a city they had come to love. Despite initial skepticism from city leaders and the public, Montevideo now boasts a bike lane along its Rambla. It is also undergoing several ongoing traffic calming projects, including a pedestrianisation study of the old town that Reena and Tim are involved in. Montevideo is evolving, with growing public awareness around urban mobility and a marked shift in road culture. The changes in infrastructure and public opinion did not happen in a vacuum. Reena and Tim’s journey illustrates how urban transformation can be driven by the determination of a few individuals. Let’s not underestimate the power of citizen-led action – together we can shape healthier cities for better living.

Litigating Industrial Air Pollution in The Netherlands: The Impact of The European Court of Human Rights

This article will focus on how the development of the European Human Rights Convention (ECHR) by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) prompted Dutch environmental movements and citizens to rely on the ECHR to reduce industrial air pollution. It will further examine the decisive role of human rights in legal proceedings concerning industrial air pollution between environmental movements and affected individuals and the State and/or business entities. The impact of the developing case law by the ECtHR on Dutch cases such as the Air Quality cases, the Urgenda case and the Shell cases will be considered. This article will consider the effects of changing public opinion and scientific developments to understand the changing role of the ECHR in the Netherlands.

Negative public opinion and minority-driven social change in hypergraphs.

The phenomenon where a committed minority overturns established social norms, frequently witnessed in revolutions and elections, has drawn extensive attention as it powerfully showcases the profound influence of strong personal convictions. In order to unravel the underlying mechanisms of the crucial role of public opinion within the dynamic process where a committed minority can leverage negative public opinion to challenge the status and even overturn established norms when a critical threshold is reached, we investigated the effects of negative public opinion by integrating it into the well-established traditional naming game model. It was found that there exists an optimal range of negative public opinion influence, which facilitates the minority's ability to gain power and achieve social consensus. Notably, our results show that a smaller critical mass of committed individuals could trigger consensus behavior under this mechanism. The introduction of negative public influence into opinion propagation has yielded intriguing results, offering a new perspective on expanding consensus formation in opinion dynamics, particularly in diverse environments.

Effectiveness of Polycode Language Means in Achieving Social Advertising Goals

This study addresses the increasing need for a detailed examination of the influence of the socio-cultural context on emotion perception in social advertising, considering the specific linguistic and national backgrounds of the target audience. The subject of the research is the linguocultural specificity of emotion verbalization in social advertising materials in Russian, English, and Turkish. The aim of the study is to identify and systematize the peculiarities of emotional image perception in social advertising within different linguocultural contexts. The theoretical foundations of polycode means contributing to emotional transmission, as well as their effectiveness in multilingual contexts, are considered. The research methodology includes a comparative analysis of emotional expressions and ethnic characteristics based on a developed matrix that describes various emotions and their perception in Russian, English, and Turkish. The analysis, grounded in the comparison of emotional expressions and ethnic characteristics, reveals differentiation in the interpretation of feelings among the three language groups. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development and validation of a comprehensive methodology for the linguocultural analysis of polycode means of expressing emotions in social advertising, considering the interaction of verbal, non-verbal, and socio-cultural factors. A systematized matrix is proposed for the first time, enabling a comparison of the emotional impact of advertising messages in Russian, English, and Turkish linguocultural contexts. The results obtained allow for the identification of universal and specific features of the emotional impact of social advertising. The conclusion is drawn that the effective application of polycode tools, considering linguistic and social factors, significantly intensifies the effectiveness of social advertising and optimizes interaction with various groups of society. The significance of the research lies in its practical application for creating more sensitive and relevant information campaigns, contributing to a more effective impact on public opinion and behavioral change.

Racist Policy Shocks in the United States and Latino Elites’ Identities and Actions: Prop 187, SB 1070, and Trump’s Racism

This article draws on interviews conducted with 65 upper-middle class and upper-class Latinos in the business and corporate sector to investigate how racist and exclusionary immigration policy shocks at the state and federal level in the United States—such as Prop 187 in California, SB1070 in Arizona in the 2010s and Trump’s criminalizing rhetoric and immigration policies before and during his first term—shape the racial/ethnic identification and philanthropic activities of Latino economic elites. I argue that well-publicized racialized policies, what I refer to “racist policy shocks,” have enduring effects because they shock systems at multiple levels of society that ripple through institutions and everyday life and across time. Racist policy shocks can result in more than changes in public opinion, a thickening of ethnic identity, and political protest in the moment that groups are being targeted—they can also have long-lasting impacts on racial/ethnic identity, reinforce ethnic solidarity, and spur people to economic action and ethnoracial uplift. I argue that individual level factors rooted in ethnorace and class intersections—such as growing up in low-income communities and experiences with discrimination—combine with an exclusionary macro level context—such as negative political rhetoric that constantly demonizes Latinos as a threat—to crystallize a sense of ethnic solidarity and responsibility for the broader Latino community.

MODELS FOR PREDICTING CHANGES IN PUBLIC OPINION DURING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NARRATIVE IN SOCIAL MEDIA

Relevance. In the modern world, social media are becoming the main channels of communication, which significantly affects the formation of public opinion and the implementation of strategic narratives. In the context of global information challenges, in particular war, understanding and predicting changes in public sentiment is extremely important for the effective implementation of state information policy, as well as for combating disinformation. The subject of the study is modeling the processes of predicting changes in public opinion during the implementation of a strategic narrative through social media. The aim of the study is to analyze the effectiveness of using diffusion of innovations models and neural networks to predict changes in socio-political sentiment, as well as to optimize content strategy on social media platforms. Main results: The study showed that social media has a significant impact on public consciousness, and the use of information dissemination models, such as Bass's diffusion of innovations model, allows predicting the spread of narratives among different groups of users. The use of neural networks to analyze socio-political sentiment provided highly accurate forecasts with good quality indicators. The results of the study emphasize the importance of adapting content strategy in social media to increase the effectiveness of influencing the audience. Conclusion. The results obtained confirm that for the successful implementation of the state's strategic narrative, it is necessary to apply combined methods of forecasting and adapting content on social platforms. Successful adaptation of content strategy, taking into account changes in user behavior and trends in socio-political sentiment, is a key factor for effective influence on public opinion and support of national interests in the digital environment.

Bulgarian foreign policy and the war in Ukraine: moving towards a more assertive pro-western foreign policy?

This article examines the evolution of Bulgarian foreign policy toward Russia and Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion, emphasising domestic political dynamics. Since 2022, Bulgaria has adopted a more assertive pro-western stance, prompting an investigation into the sustainability of this shift in relation to domestic political contestation and public opinion. The study argues this shift was made possible thanks to significant changes in Bulgaria’s political landscape since 2021 rather than being merely a reaction to the war. While a pro-western elite consensus developed, particularly in support of Ukraine, voting patterns often diverged from majority-opposition norms, influenced by strategic considerations within ruling and opposition parties. Contestation arose from socialist and far-right parties, as well as President Rumen Radev. Notably, this elite pro-western shift has not aligned with public opinion changes. The study concludes that the sustainability of this reorientation depends on political parties’ ability to establish stable pro-western governing coalitions.

The pre-Roe legal framework: a dissecting study of the evolution of abortion laws and their socio-legal implications

Introduction The historical evolution of abortion laws in the United States reflects significant shifts in societal attitudes and legal frameworks, particularly concerning reproductive rights and maternal consent. Prior to Roe v. Wade, abortion was largely criminalised, but gradual changes in public opinion and legislation paved the way for liberalised abortion laws. Objective This study aims to examine the legal and societal developments shaping abortion laws in the United States from the early 19th century to the pre-Roe era, focusing on the interplay between public opinion and legislative milestones. Methods A historical-legal methodology was employed, analysing primary sources such as court rulings and statutes, alongside secondary literature. The research explores the evolving legal definitions of foetal personhood and maternal autonomy, contextualised within broader societal changes. Results The findings reveal a transformation in perceptions of abortion, from being viewed as a criminal act to a recognised right influenced by medical, social, and political factors. Legal frameworks increasingly reflected public support for women’s autonomy, culminating in the Roe v. Wade decision. Conclusions This study provides historical context for contemporary abortion debates, highlighting how pre-Roe legal and societal changes continue to inform discussions on women’s health, autonomy, and reproductive rights.

It has not always been like this: public opinion of climate change in Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

Climate change is affecting weather and climate extremes globally. It has been a subject of debate and controversy leading to the emergence of climate deniers and skeptics. It is a subject of great relevance because of its wide-ranging impacts on socioeconomic and natural systems. This necessitates long-term strategic decisions and response measures. There is a gap between the general public and the scientific community in terms of their awareness, understanding, and perception of climate change. Responding to the global climate crisis requires different actions at various levels, including individual. However, the manner in which the public and societies at large act in response to climate change is dependent on their perceptions and beliefs of climate change. This makes understanding the common opinion on climate change salient. There is an overrepresentation of climate change public opinion research in western nations in comparison with developing countries. This work thus contributes to filling this gap by engaging with members of the public who experience flooding in Nigeria to understand their perceptions and opinions on climate change. Qualitative research was carried out with focus group interviews and semistructured one-on-one interviews as primary data collection tools. The research findings indicate that there is a consensus that climate change is occurring, as evidenced by changes in weather patterns over the years. However, there were differences in opinion among the participants on how it was presenting. This work thus yields key insights on the level of awareness of the climate phenomena in a developing African city. Knowledge of climate change can encourage the public to engage more with the climate crisis, act in their own way, and even mobilize to influence and support government policies towards mitigating climate change.

Deep Recognition of Public Opinion Reversals in Critical Incidents Based on Hypernetwork Architecture

With the development of social media and online platforms, the speed of dissemination and influence of emergencies in cyberspace have increased significantly. The rapid change of public opinion, especially the reversal of public opinion, may have a significant impact on social stability and government credibility. The hypernetwork structure has complex multilevel and multidimensional characteristics, and it is of great significance to analyze the multiple participating subjects of public opinion evolution and their complex relationships based on the hypernetwork theory, and to further identify the public opinion reversal for the public opinion response and guidance of emergencies. According to the complex interaction between the participants of emergencies and internal and external factors, this paper constructs a hypernetwork model including four subnets of users, time series, opinions, and emotions, and analyzes the network structure in detail. On this basis, the method steps of emergency public opinion inversion recognition are proposed. Taking the public opinion event caused by Hongxing Erke donation during the rainstorm in Henan Province of China as an example, the empirical analysis is carried out. The research shows that the proposed emergency hypernetwork model provides effective support for the identification of public opinion inversion, and the identification method of public opinion inversion based on the hypernetwork is helpful to find the trend of public opinion evolution, so as to infer the tendency of public opinion inversion, which provides new ideas for the related research of public opinion monitoring and emergency response.

Exploring the Causes of Stereotype Formation in Social Media and Possible Solutions

The following research targets examining female stereotypes on the internet in the context of the Pink Hair Incident, where Zheng, a young Chinese girl, faced severe internet violence and criticism by posting dyed pink hair with her grandfather. The study delves into the underlying triggers: cultural and social factors. At the same time, the negative reactions of netizens and their linkage with gender stereotypes are analyzed. By collecting real-world evidence, such as comments and posts from Chinese social media platforms, a qualitative analysis was conducted. During the study, the researchers analyzed the events in detail in a timeline. Along with the qualitative analysis, an in-depth analysis was made on the girl’s appearance and educational background responses, the correlation between appearance and social gender expectations, and the change in public opinion. The findings suggest during the initial stage, Zheng’s unconventional hair color and academic achievement fueled cyber-bullying. With time, people began to reflect and form different opinions and voices on the event. The study concluded that such stereotypes greatly limit women’s opportunities and courage to express themselves. The Pink Hair Incident highlights the stereotypes that still exist in Chinese society and the need to be inclusive and supportive.

The power of empirical evidence: assessing changes in public opinion on constitutional emergency provisions

AbstractThe Japanese government is attempting to put emergency clauses in the Constitution. Although the overwhelming majority of legal scholars and practitioners vehemently oppose the initiative, public opinion polls indicate a close divide between opponents and supporters. This division may partly stem from the difficulty the public faces in reaching a conclusive decision through abstract legal arguments. Recently, an empirical study analyzing emergency clauses in various countries showed that such clauses tend to increase government violations of human rights and the death toll during disasters. Our survey experiment investigates how presenting such empirical evidence—which corroborates opponents’ legal arguments—as a treatment affects public support for the potential Japanese emergency clauses. We find that the treatment shifts the ratio of opposition to support from roughly 1:1 to 2.6:1. In the placebo group, the proportions of opposition, neutrality, and support are 28.8%, 43.2%, and 28.0%, compared to 47.7%, 33.6%, and 18.7% in the treatment group. Additionally, initial supporters of the clauses shift more toward opposition after the intervention than do opponents or neutrals. These results suggest that should a referendum be held, making the public aware of the empirical analysis could markedly influence the outcome.

부동산 뉴스로 인한 심리적인지 요인이 전세가격에 미치는 영향 - 인천광역시 연립다세대 주택을 중심으로

Recently, various factors such as interest rate hikes, inflation, and economic slowdowns in the real estate market have had a significant impact on the overall real estate market, including jeonse prices. In particular, real estate news and media have a substantial impact on public opinion formation and market sentiment. This study analyzed the impact of psychological cognitive factors on jeonse prices by dividing jeonse prices into rising and falling periods using real estate news from January 2019 to March 2024 for multi-family houses in Incheon Metropolitan City. The physical characteristics of the house, such as exclusive area, floor, and years of use, had a significant impact on jeonse prices. Among psychological cognitive factors, negative events such as ‘arrest’ or ‘police’ were factors that decreased jeonse prices, while ‘region’ and ‘rent’ were factors that increased jeonse prices, but the statistical significance was low. In particular, jeonse prices are sensitive to supply and demand factors in the market, and psychological cognitive factors play an important role. Therefore, it was confirmed that an approach that considers market characteristics and is consistent with news or public opinion trends is necessary to stabilize the jeonse market. Lastly, it is academically significant in that it quantifies and analyzes the influence of social and psychological factors rather than physical and economic factors, thereby emphasizing the importance of psychological cognitive factors and practically exploring the influence of actual social issues and changes in public opinion on the rental market.

Identifikasi Opini Publik Terhadap Kendaraan Listrik dari Data Komentar YouTube: Pemodelan Topik Menggunakan BERTopic

The Indonesian government is encouraging the transition to electric vehicles to reduce the use of fossil fuels and the negative environmental impact. This transition sparked controversy because Indonesia is still heavily dependent on coal-fired power plants, and many argue that the transition is not ready without adequate renewable energy and supporting infrastructure. Public opinion analysis is crucial in considering the introduction of electric vehicles in Indonesia due to the controversial nature of the transition. The opinion is transmitted through YouTube by taking comment data, then grouped into a topic to identify public opinion. The topic modeling method used is a BERTopic transformer model using IndoBERTweet in embedding. Once public opinion is modeled into a topic, changes in public opinion are evaluated using coherence score metrics and topic diversity as a measure of the consistency and diversity of the topic. The resulting topics have a coherence value of around 0.6 to 1 and a diversity value of 0.95838. This indicates that the resulting themes have strong semantic similarities and high diversity in terms of word usage and capture various aspects of text documents well.

PREPARATION OF FUTURE TEACHERS FOR WORK IN AN INCLUSIVE EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

The publication is devoted to highlighting the main aspects of training future teachers to work in the conditions of an inclusive educational environment. In the training of teachers, it is emphasized that it is im- portant to overcome a number of contradictions that significantly inhibit active changes in the domestic ed- ucational environment The purpose of the article is to define the relevant aspects of preparing future teachers for work in an inclusive educational environment and to explore the characteristics of adaptive games in working with students with special educational needs. The study employed methods of analysis, analogy, concretisation, and systematisation. Currently, society perceives the implementation of inclusion in the institutional system rather cau- tiously, which is manifested in the non-acceptance of the model according to which children with special ed- ucational needs (SEN) have the right to receive education (either in specially created inclusive classes or in classes where ordinary students study), and provision of pedagogical patronage if necessary. The number of children with SEN, as well as inclusive classes, has increased significantly, which calls for society’s tolerance of children of this group, as well as a change in public opinion regarding their education and socialization. Another feature is the requirement to use innovative methods in the education of students with spe- cial needs, as well as taking into account the fact that future teachers at the level of competence should de- velop knowledge about the patterns of physical and psycho-emotional development of a person, since the classification of pupils with SEN into one or another nosological group puts forward appropriate require- ments for modelling educational discourse taking into account speech activity, and the specifics of commu- nicative activity. The publication provides a general method of work of teachers with students with autism on the de- velopment of communication skills (continuous communication; the requirement for the gradual complica- tion of linguistic communication, since in communication the task of the teacher is not the active develop- ment of communication skills and the development of a culture of pronunciation and speech, but the en- couragement to communicate and develop speech activity in a way which is gradual and manageable for the student). The sensory maxim is taken into account, the actualization of which makes it possible to use stere- otypical games as a basis for developing adapted games for students with SEN. Using the example of an adapted game for students with SEN (preschool and primary education) demonstrated the peculiarities of the application of traditional methods in the conditions of an inclusive educational environment in view of pathological features in the physical (physiological and medical-biological indicators) and psycho-emotion- al development of students. In the preparation of future teachers for pedagogical activities with students with SEN, the specifics of the sensory system should be taken into account, which manifests itself in the sharpening of attention to this or that synesthetic component. The game activity of students with SEN enables the gradual develop- ment of communication skills, and also promotes psycho-emotional balance. In conclusion, implementation of the methods based on medical and physiological indicators while working with students with SEN will make it possible to modify the currently established defect-oriented approach in an inclusive educational environment to a person-oriented one. Taking into account the medi- cal and biological indicators and the psycho-emotional state of students with special educational needs, the implementation of adaptive active games in physical education will contribute to achieving psycho-emo- tional balance and overall physical development of the body.

The history of the castle kitchen in Łańcut

The article examines the history and activities of the castle kitchen in Łańcut from the second half of the 17th century until 1944. The results of the research are based on manuscript documents from the AGAD in Warsaw, the Library and Archives of the Łańcut Castle, the collections of the Department of manuscripts of the Vasyl Stefanyk Lviv National Library of Ukraine, and the memoirs of 19 th -century travellers. The changes that took place in the process of improving the kitchen workspace and organizing the work of the staff are an important testament to the culture that prevailed in the palaces and large estates of the Polish gentry. Special attention was paid to the portraits of former kitchen employees, the atmosphere around their workplace, and changes in public opinion about the work of a chef. Many research findings are presented for the first time. The results of the study will be useful for historians, anthropologists, and researchers of material culture.

INFLUENCE OF COMMUNICATION FORMALITY ON PERFORMANCE OF DOMESTIC TOURISM IN ABERDARES NATIONAL PARK

This1study is aimed1at establishing the1influence of communication strategies on performance of domestic tourism promotion initiatives, the case of Aberdares national park. It focused on communication formality. Descriptive survey was1employed1in this research. The study population included employees of Aberdares National Park (ANP) at their head office in Nyahururu County and local community living around Aberdares National Park. A total of 170 employees are found at ANP head office in Nyahururu County. Stratified random sampling was employed as per the departments (General Administration, HR, IT and Operations, finance and accounting), a 50% sample of the total population was adopted therefore 85 respondents made up the target population. Structured questionnaires were used in data collection. Validity was measured by half split method. Pilot testing was done to ensure validity of the instrument where by a sample of 10 were chosen to confirm validity and reliability1of the1instrument. Data1was further presented1in form of tables. The return rate of 94.12% was achieved from the 80 filled questionnaires out of 85 respondents chosen each from ANP staff and domestic tourists. Results showed that Communication formality played a vital role in influencing performance of domestic tourism at A.N.P. The statement that achieved the highest mean were; ANP had well established communication media in place. The study made recommendation that A.N.P needs to more often improve communication content so as to help in changing public opinion on local tourism and that A.N.P should be able to make use of all media channels available so as to achieve maximum coverage. KEYWORDS: Communication Strategies, Communication Formality, Performance, Domestic Tourism Aberdares National Park

MI5, the Security State and Communist Political Refugees from Nazism in Second World War-Era Britain: The Case of Gustav Beuer, 1938–1946

Abstract This article examines the British Security Service’s monitoring of Gustav Beuer, a Sudeten German communist and former member of the Czechoslovak parliament who arrived in London as a refugee in 1938 and set up home there until 1946. Although from a friendly country, Beuer was placed under continuous surveillance and was interned, together with five of his compatriots, in 1940–41. The article uses this case to challenge previous interpretations of MI5’s role in spying on communist refugees from Central Europe. It does so by taking a model developed by the German political scientist Matthias Lemke for analysing the widely varying levels of threat to democracy posed by exceptional security measures taken by liberal states in closely defined time-frames and applying this to Second-World-War Britain. Far from pursuing a linear strategy based on anti-communist prejudice alone, MI5 was obliged to muddle along in its policy towards Beuer and other communist refugees, assimilating unexpected triggers, shifting legal-bureaucratic frameworks, changes in wartime alliances and public opinion, and instances of ministerial action and inaction. The paradoxical result of this was to inject a certain amount of (unforeseen) pragmatism into MI5’s handling of ‘suspect’ refugees, while at the same time undermining its belief that covert fact-finding alone was enough to establish who was and who was not a threat. The article concludes that the self-doubts and unease within the British security state which are often attributed to intelligence failings and spy scandals in the early Cold War period had deeper roots in the Second World War era.

Long-term Energy Policy vs. Dynamic Public Preferences? A Review of German Energy Policy

During the energy crisis peaking in 2022, numerous countries have implemented short-term and immediate policy measures to reinforce security of energy supply and lower energy prices, often at the expense of environmental compatibility. This can be considered a sudden shift in the relative prioritization among these three energy policy goals. However, the sudden political rearrangement of energy policy priorities during the energy crisis in 2022 is only one illustration of a rapid shift. Historically, abrupt changes in public opinion have also prompted short-term adjustments in energy policy. This paper focuses on the dynamic relationship between public opinion and energy policy using the case of Germany. Specifically, we examine the relationship between changing public preferences and energy policy reaction regarding three significant events: the phase-out of nuclear energy, the phase-out of coal-fired power and heat generation, and the recent energy crisis in 2022. Our paper aims to assess the extent to which short-term shifts in public preferences can be aligned with efficient long-term planning of the energy system and identify the potential challenges that may arise during the process.