Warming climates, fewer bats? Assessing future risks to pest suppression services

The current health care system is an extreme environment akin to harsh weather conditions with precipitous changes in health care policy and significant funding cuts to public insurance and medical research. Some psychiatrists and other health care clinicians are cautious about speaking out against these new challenges for fear of repercussions. Patients, concerned with maintaining their health care coverage and well-being, are caught in these rapid changes. Concurrently, psychiatrists and other health professionals face ethical challenges and moral injury. Considerations for collaborative advocacy to effect change are offered to assist clinicians in navigating the complexities of this health care environment.

The impacts of global change on biodiversity and ecosystems have become a pressing concern for researchers, necessitating the selection of suitable model systems for empirical investigation. For decades, natural microcosms, particularly tank bromeliads, have proven invaluable in addressing fundamental questions in ecology and evolution. Their natural environmental conditions, high multitrophic diversity and small size facilitate both realistic and highly replicable controlled experiments across the Neotropics. Tank bromeliads have thus emerged as effective model systems for studying various anthropogenic impacts. This review synthesizes studies employing bromeliads in space-for-time substitution approaches and experiments simulating human-induced changes in temperature, precipitation, habitat and biodiversity loss, detritus quality, ecological interactions and ecosystem processes. These studies consistently reveal the profound effects of human drivers on organismal vulnerability, ecological dynamics, food webs and ecosystem functioning. By enabling the investigation of multiple ecological questions across scales and levels of biological organization, these 'big answers from small worlds' provide critical insights into the impacts of global changes on complex systems. These findings from bromeliad microecosystems can be used as guiding strategies to preserve and manage natural freshwater ecosystems amidst ongoing global change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Life in natural microcosms'.

Precipitation and circulation changes in the Indian summer monsoon region under stratospheric aerosol intervention in the GLENS simulations

Abstract Sulfur-based stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) can reduce greenhouse gas-induced warming, but also reduces global precipitation, and alters the atmospheric circulation through lower stratospheric warming (LSW) from absorption of radiation. We compare the hydrological response to SAI in model simulations using sulfate as geoengineering material versus three alternative materials, alumina, calcite, and diamond dust, which have lower absorptivity but comparable shortwave radiation (SW) scattering. Our results show that the usage of less absorptive materials for SAI reduces perturbations to the atmospheric radiation balance, decreasing global apparent hydrological sensitivity, defined here as total global precipitation change per degree surface cooling. It also limits LSW and circulation changes, with tropical circulation metrics, such as Hadley Cell strength and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) location being altered less compared to sulfur. It is important to note, however, that simulations involving solid particle injections are subject to substantially larger uncertainties than sulfur‑based SAI, particularly related to plume‑scale microphysics, stratospheric chemistry, and aerosol–cloud interactions. Despite these uncertainties, our results indicate that, within the present idealized modeling framework, SAI materials with reduced longwave absorptivity have the potential to mitigate key hydrological and dynamical side effects associated with sulfur‑based SAI.

The main source of plant water in alpine meadows dominated by supra-permafrost water under decreasing rain conditions.

ABSTRACTThe phenology of bird vocalizations is increasingly employed to understand avian reproduction and territoriality, among other ecological aspects. Although precipitation is ostensibly the major driver of seasonality at the equator, subtle photoperiodic signals are discernible in daylength, with a typical variation of 20 to 25 min over the entire year. However, in hyper‐diverse areas, such as the tropics, environmental cues for phenological patterns are relatively small compared to temperate regions, requiring long‐term data to identify patterns of vocal seasonality. One such source of data comes from the increasing numbers of bird visual and aural records generated by citizen science initiatives, easily accessible through online platforms such as eBird. First, we validated the use of eBird citizen science data for vocal phenology research, demonstrating strong concordance with independent audio recordings. Then, we assessed the vocal phenology of forest tinamous using a large eBird dataset. This work tested the hypotheses that the vocal phenology of tropical forest tinamous is influenced by changes in daylength and precipitation. To test the effect of changes in daylength and precipitation, we grouped records of forest tinamous in five regions with similar precipitation regimes over four latitudinal bands. After filtering, we obtained a total of 44,071 records of 16 forest tinamou species between January 2000 and December 2022. We found that vocal phenology in tropical forest tinamous can be predicted by changes in precipitation but is primarily influenced by changes in daylength. There appears to be a clear difference in singing patterns between the broad regions defined by precipitation regimes. In wetter regions, the effect of precipitation was stronger. Forest tinamous vocalize mainly when precipitation is low, especially in humid regions with similar climatic regimes. They also tend to sing more when days become either longer or shorter, with the lowest vocal activity at 12 h of daylength. Questions such as these, concerning tropical phenology, have been elucidated through the contribution of citizen science to this burgeoning field.

This study evaluates the impacts of recent climate change and permafrost dynamics on lake morphometry in the semi-arid Khangay Mountains of central Mongolia, focusing on Telmen (TEL), Ulaagchiny Khar (UKL), and Terkhiin Tsagaan Lakes (TTL). Multi-source datasets, including Landsat and MODIS imagery, meteorological observations, and bathymetric data, were integrated to quantify changes in lake area, volume, vegetation productivity (NDVI), air temperature, and precipitation over the period 1993–2023. Results show a persistent increase in mean annual air temperature, while precipitation exhibits clear spatial variability among lake basins. Lake volumes declined by 0.062 km³ (UKL), 0.143 km³ (TEL), and 0.027 km³ (TTL), corresponding to reductions of approximately 16%, 54%, and 10%, respectively, indicating pronounced differences in hydrological sensitivity. Evaporation appears to contribute to lake-volume decline, particularly in UKL and TEL; however, lake-water balance is also influenced by precipitation variability, inflow conditions, and groundwater exchange. Vegetation productivity increased across catchments, suggesting improved growing-season conditions associated with permafrost warming. Overall, these findings highlight the sensitivity of permafrost-influenced lake systems to climate variability and emphasize the need for further process-based studies to better constrain hydrological responses.

Mixed-species litters exhibit decomposition characteristics distinct from those of monospecific litters and are highly sensitive to precipitation changes in arid desert regions. However, the effects of altered precipitation on mixed-litter decomposition in these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Fresh leaf litter of Reaumuria soongarica, Salsola passerina and Nitraria sphaerocarpa was collected from arid desert habitats. We investigated decomposition differences among three monospecific litters and four mixed-species litters under different precipitation treatments. For both monospecific and mixed litters, increased precipitation significantly accelerated mass loss and nitrogen release through the entire experimental period. Compared with the natural precipitation treatment (CK), litter mass loss increased by 10.97–18.07%, while nitrogen (N) release increased by 4.64–7.96% after 12 months of decomposition. By contrast, decreased precipitation only significantly reduced carbon release. Increased precipitation did not shift the non-additive effects on mass loss from antagonistic to synergistic; it only weakened the antagonistic effects. Mixing effects on nutrient release varied among litter mixtures. Two-species mixtures exhibited stronger antagonistic effects than three-species mixtures, and increased precipitation moderately enhanced the synergistic effects in two-species mixtures. In conclusion, precipitation change altered litter decomposition in desert plants but had limited effects on litter-mixture interactions.

Precipitation change and biomass allocation in a temperate grassland: The role of intraspecific variation and species composition change

• Optimal scaling 5.5–8.4% K −1 varies with event duration and return period. • High-elevation basins show strong CPM–scaling agreement; lowlands weak links. • Seasonal shifts degrade scaling reliability, especially for longer-duration storms. • Event-based temperature outperforms mean annual temperature in T-P scaling. Quantifying future changes in sub-daily extreme precipitation in mountainous basins is essential for adapting to increasingly intense flash floods and debris flows. Often, extreme precipitation-temperature scaling rates are used to anticipate future extremes. In this study, we evaluate the reliability of temperature-scaling approaches by comparing their projections of extreme precipitation to outputs from convection-permitting models (CPMs) across a complex mountainous region in northeastern Italy. We use hourly data from an ensemble of five CPMs at a 3 km resolution, comparing historical (1996–2005) and future (2090–2099, RCP8.5) periods and using average temperatures in the 24 h prior to the precipitation event to compute the scaling rates. Our analysis employs a robust methodological framework to identify optimal scaling factors that replicate the extreme precipitation estimates produced by CPM simulations. We find that the optimal scaling rates vary with duration and return period. For moderate extremes (2- and 5-year return period), the optimal scaling rates are typically between 5.5 and 6% K −1 , while more severe events scale with higher rates, up to 8.4% K −1 for 3‐hour, 100‐year events. Future shift in precipitation seasonality also plays a role. In high‐elevation areas, where extremes are prevalent in the summer in both present and future conditions, estimates based on temperature-scaling rates align closely with CPM outputs. Conversely, poorer performances are found in areas where large shifts in the seasonality of extremes are expected. Overall, careful consideration of local variability, seasonality, duration, and return period is necessary to avoid potential inaccuracies when deriving projections from temperature-scaling relationships.

Projected temperature and precipitation changes under future climate scenarios in the Siak watershed, Indonesia

Spatiotemporal evolution and hyetograph changes of global extreme precipitation

Asymmetric microbial community reassembly under 7-year experimental precipitation decouples soil carbon storage in a coastal wetland.

Precipitation is a limiting factor for various system functions in desert steppe ecosystems, and its impacts on aboveground and belowground processes may diverge. To evaluate these differences, for five years, we conducted field experiments to examine the effects of four different precipitation treatments [natural precipitation (WCK), as well as a 50% decrease (W- 50%), 50% increase (W+ 50%), and 100% increase (W+ 100%) in natural precipitation] on the functioning of a desert steppe. The results showed that W- 50% significantly reduced aboveground ecosystem multifunctionality (AEMF), while W+ 50% and W+ 100% significantly increased AEMF and ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF). There was no significant difference in belowground ecosystem multifunctionality (BEMF) between these treatments. Furthermore, precipitation alterations significantly modified soil water content and pH, while also influencing vegetation coverage and species richness. Partial Least Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) revealed that precipitation primarily drove changes in AEMF through a direct cascading pathway by significantly regulating the soil microenvironment, rather than directly through shifts in vegetation characteristics. Additionally, the model demonstrated a lack of explanatory power for BEMF. The asymmetric precipitation response of desert steppes highlights the critical need to determine belowground stability thresholds for sustainable ecosystem management under climate extremes.

Intraspecific communication through volatile organic compounds in the mosses Didymodon vinealis and Syntrichia caninervis from an arid temperate desert.

Marine fish play a significant yet understudied role in the oceanic carbon cycle through the production of magnesium-rich calcium carbonate (CaCO3) precipitates known as ichthyocarbonates. These deposits form in the gut of marine teleost fish in response to salinity, serving as part of their osmoregulation strategy. Through this, marine fish may contribute as much as 9.04 Pg of CaCO3 per year in global new carbonate production, being equivalent to or potentially higher than the production by coccolithophores and pelagic foraminifera. Despite their ecological relevance, the biological mechanisms driving ichthyocarbonate precipitation remain to be fully resolved. Intriguingly, bacteria are consistently found in intimate association with ichthyocarbonate precipitates. Given the widespread capacity of prokaryotes to mediate CaCO₃ precipitation, this association points to a previously unexplored microbial contribution to the process. To investigate the potential role of bacteria in ichthyocarbonate production, we subjected Gulf toadfish (Opsanus beta) to salinity treatments common to their native range and known to elicit changes in CaCO3 precipitation. To assess the respective contributions of the host and its microbiota to ichthyocarbonate formation in the gut, we characterized the microbiome across the toadfish gut and performed meta-transcriptomic analysis. Across the toadfish gut, we identify a high abundance of vibrios associated with ichthyocarbonates with the metabolic potential for CaCO3 precipitation. Specifically, we observe the expression of the transcriptional activator of urease (ureR) by Photobacterium damselae subsp. damselae, which can induce the precipitation of CaCO3 via the production of bicarbonate. We demonstrate that CaCO₃ precipitation in marine fish may not solely be a host-driven process, but potentially the result of a functional symbiosis with gut-associated Vibrio bacteria. We hypothesize that just as photosymbionts enable corals to build reefs, fish hosts, along with their microbial partners, may synergistically contribute to oceanic carbonate production. This discovery, if confirmed, expands the role of symbiosis in marine biomineralization and underscores its broader influence on global biogeochemical cycles.

Extreme rainfall is increasing under climate warming, but its future patterns across Africa remain highly uncertain. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, we assess projected changes in annual maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1day) and rare precipitation extremes across African subregions under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Our results show robust intensification of Rx1day by the late twenty-first century, with increases of ~5-10 mm day⁻¹ (15-23 mm day⁻¹) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5), largest in convectively dominated equatorial regions such as West, Central, and Northeast Africa. Rare events that historically occurred once every 50 (100) years are projected to recur every ~5-10 ( ~ 6-14) years, with recurrence intervals as short as 2-3 years in equatorial regions under SSP5-8.5. This intensification is driven primarily by thermodynamic moistening associated with radiation-induced warming, while diabatic heating-driven dynamic changes modulate regional responses and account for much of the intermodel spread. A hierarchical emergent-constraint framework based on observed historical global mean surface temperature trends moderates mean Rx1day intensification by ~11-35% without altering its sign. Constrained and unconstrained projections indicate substantial continent-wide increases in population and gross domestic product exposure.

Remotely sensed evapotranspiration-based ensemble streamflow modeling in an ungauged watershed under climate and land use/cover change, North Korea.

Abstract Paleoclimate records indicate substantial decreases in precipitation associated with the South Asian monsoon in response to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) perturbations, yet the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigate the impacts of a collapsed AMOC on the South Asian monsoon using a suite of North Atlantic freshwater hosing simulations conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), global climate model under preindustrial conditions. Our results show that a weakened AMOC leads to reduced monsoon rainfall and a southward shift of the Southern Hemisphere branch of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). We also see a substantial increase in precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula, driven by enhanced winds across the Bay of Bengal. We show that these responses cannot be explained by global energy budget arguments and instead propose a local dynamical mechanism in which enhanced winds over the Bay of Bengal increase orographic precipitation across the Indochina Peninsula. These findings have important implications for both projections of future AMOC weakening or collapse under continued anthropogenic warming and for interpreting paleoclimate records of past monsoon variability. Significance Statement This study explores how the South Asian monsoon responds to a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), a large-scale ocean circulation system in the climate system. This is important because climate models project that the AMOC will weaken due to increased anthropogenic warming. While much work has been done on how tropical precipitation changes at global scales, fewer studies have focused on local basins or monsoon systems. We find that the South Asian monsoon weakens in response to an AMOC collapse. However, we also show that the current leading framework of energy budget theory cannot fully explain the regional changes around the Indian Ocean. In particular, there is an increase in precipitation over the Bay of Bengal and the Indochina Peninsula which is driven by local dynamics rather than global energy shifts. These findings highlight the need for region-specific analysis and may help guide future research, including the interpretation of past climate records in this region.