Global Sea Surface Temperature Change Research Articles

A regional and seasonal approach to explain the observed trends in the Antarctic sea ice in recent decades

AbstractIn contrast to the declining sea ice extent across most of the Arctic in the past several decades, sea ice extent in the Antarctic has experienced opposite regional trends with regions of sea ice expansion exceeding those of contraction. Various mechanisms have been put forward to explain the Antarctic sea ice trends, but few have been successful at explaining a large portion of the observed trends. Dividing the Southern Ocean into the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean sectors and examining the trends over 1979–2018 separately for each sector and for each season of the year, we are able to identify modes of variability that statistically explain more than 42% of the trends in all three sectors and all four seasons. In certain sector and season, up to 94% of the trends can be explained. The leading modes of variability that explain a substantial portion of the trends appear to be related to several known climate variability modes including the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Pacific South American (PSA) 1 and 2, and the Zonal Wavenumber 2–6 patterns. In the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sectors, the changes in the occurrences of the main contributing modes to sea ice trends are dominated by local sea‐surface temperature (SST) variations, while in the Pacific sector, they are related to changes in global SST.

Decomposing the response of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation to an abrupt quadrupling in CO<sub>2</sub>

Abstract. We perform time-slice experiments using HadGEM3-A to decompose the long-term (years 101–150) response of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) to an abrupt quadrupling in CO2 (4×CO2) into (1) a rapid atmospheric adjustment, (2) a contribution from the global-average sea surface temperature (SST) change (+3.4 K), and (3) an SST pattern effect. The SST fields are derived from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Two further experiments explore the impact on the BDC of the spread in global-average SST response to 4×CO2 across the CMIP5 models (range 2.1–4.9 K). At 70 hPa (10 hPa) the annual-mean tropical upward mass flux increases by 45 % (35 %) due to the 4×CO2 perturbation. At 70 hPa, around 70 % of the increase is from the global-uniform SST warming, with the remainder coming in similar contributions from the rapid adjustment and SST pattern effect. In contrast, at 10 hPa the increase in mass flux comes mainly from the rapid adjustment (∼40 %) and the uniform SST warming (∼45 %), with a small contribution from the SST pattern. At 10 hPa, the effect of the multi-model spread in global-mean SST is comparable in magnitude to the rapid adjustment. Conversely, at 70 hPa the effect of spread in global-mean SST is substantially larger than both the rapid adjustment and the SST pattern effect. We derive an approximately linear sensitivity of the tropical upward mass flux to global surface air temperature change of 0.62×109 kg s−1 K−1 (9 % K−1) at 70 hPa and 0.10×109 kg s−1 K−1 (6 % K−1) at 10 hPa. The results confirm the most important factor for the acceleration of the BDC in the lower stratosphere under increased CO2 is global SST changes. We also quantify for the first time that the rapid adjustment to CO2 is of similar importance to SSTs for the increased BDC in the upper stratosphere. This demonstrates a potential for a fast and slow timescale of the response of the BDC to greenhouse gas forcing, with the relative prominence of those timescales being height dependent.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

Knowledge of natural climate variability is essential to better constrain the uncertainties in projections of twenty-first-century climate change 1–5. The past 2,000 years (2 kyr) have emerged as a critical interval in this endeavour, with sufficient length to characterize natural decadal-to-centennial scale change, known external climate forcings 6 and with distinctive patterns of spatiotemporal temperature variations 7. However, reconstructions for the full 2 kyr interval are not available for the global ocean, a primary heat reservoir 8 and an important regulator of global climate on longer timescales 9–11. Here we present a global ocean sea surface temperature (SST) synthesis (Ocean2k SST synthesis) spanning the Common Era, which shows a cooling trend that is similar, within uncertainty, to that simulated by realistically forced climate models for the past millennium. We use the simulations to identify the climate forcing(s) consistent with reconstructed SST variations during the past millennium. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Warm–dry collocation of recent drought in southwestern China tied to moisture transport and climate warming**Project supported by the National Basic Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430201), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41075058 and 41475075), and the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (Grant No. GYHY201106016).

This study aims to investigate the recent drought in southwestern China and its association with environmental changes in moisture transport (MT) and atmospheric circulation. Climatic Research Unit grid data, in situ observations in China, and ERA-interim reanalysis are used to study the characteristics of the drought and the associated mechanism. Recent precipitation trends show a pattern of “Northern wetting and Southern drying”, similar to the anti-phase of the climate pattern prevailing during 1980–2000 in mainland China; southwestern China incurred a severe drought during 2009–2013. Wavelet analysis reveals that the drought coincides with a warm–dry phase of temperature and precipitation on a period of about 20 years and beyond 100 years, where contributions account for 43% and 57% of the deficiency of the precipitation, averaged for 2003–2012, respectively. A further investigation reveals that the drought results chiefly from the decline of the southwestern monsoon MT toward southwestern China, in addition to mid-latitude circulation changes, which leads to more blockings near the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk in the rainy season and negative anomalies around Lake Baikal and northeast China in the dry season. These anomalies are likely to be correlated with global sea surface temperature changes and need to be studied further.

Interactive effects of climate change and eutrophication on the dinoflagellate-bearing benthic foraminifer Marginopora vertebralis

Elevated sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change and increased nutrient concentrations resulting from land runoff both are stressors for calcifying coral reef organisms. Here, we test the hypothesis that increased temperature leads to bleaching in dinoflagellate-bearing foraminifera similar to corals and that increased nutrients through runoff can exaggerate stress on the holobiont. In an experiment manipulating temperatures alone, we have shown that mortality of Marginopora vertebralis increased with temperatures. Most individuals died after 7 days at 34°C, ~5°C above current summer maxima. Survival at 37 days was >98% at 28°C. After 7 days of exposure to 31 or 32°C, photosynthesis of the endosymbionts was compromised, as indicated by several photophysiological parameters (effective quantum yield and apparent photosynthetic rate). In a flow-though experiment manipulating both temperature (three levels, 26, 29 and 31°C) and nitrate concentrations (3 levels, ~0.5, 1.0 and 1.4 μmol l−1 NO3 −), elevated temperature had a significant negative effect on most parameters measured. At 31°C, most photopigments (measured by UPLC) in the foraminifera were significantly reduced. The only pigment that increased was the photoprotective diatoxanthin. Several other parameters measured (maximum and effective quantum yield, O2 production in light, organic carbon contents) also significantly decreased with temperature. Optode-based respirometry demonstrated that the presence of symbionts at elevated temperatures represents a net carbon loss for the host. Growth rates of M. vertebralis and mortality at the end of the experiment were significantly affected by both temperature increase and nitrate addition. We conclude that these foraminifera bleach in a similar fashion to corals and that global sea surface temperature change and nitrate increases are stressors for these protists. Furthermore, this provides support for the hypothesis that management of local stressors elevates resilience of coral reefs to global stressors.

Socio-economic and management implications of range-shifting species in marine systems

Climate change is leading to a redistribution of marine species, altering ecosystem dynamics as species extend or shift their geographic ranges polewards with warming waters. In marine systems, range shifts have been observed in a wide diversity of species and ecosystems and are predicted to become more prevalent as environmental conditions continue to change. Large-scale shifts in the ranges of marine species will likely have dramatic socio-economic and management implications. Australia provides a unique setting in which to examine the range of consequences of climate-induced range shifts because it encompasses a diverse range of ecosystems, spanning tropical to temperate systems, within a single nation and is home to global sea surface temperature change ‘hotspots’ (where range shifts are particularly likely to occur). We draw on global examples with a particular emphasis on Australian cases to evaluate these consequences. We show that in Australia, range shifts span a variety of ecosystem types, trophic levels, and perceived outcomes (i.e., negative versus positive). The effect(s) of range shifts on socio-economic change variables are rarely reviewed, yet have the potential to have positive and/or negative effects on economic activities, human health and ecosystem services. Even less information exists about potential management responses to range-shifting species. However, synthesis of these diverse examples provides some initial guidance for selecting effective adaptive response strategies and management tools in the face of continuing climate-mediated range shifts.

Effects of physical changes in the ocean on the atmospheric pCO2: glacial-interglacial cycles

Based on LGM experiments with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, we systematically investigated the effects of physical changes in the ocean and induced biological effects as well on the low atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Numerical experiments with an oceanic carbon-cycle model showed that pCO2 was lowered by ~30 ppm in the LGM ocean. Most of the pCO2 reduction was explained by the change in CO2 solubility in the ocean due to lower sea surface temperature (SST) during the LGM. Moreover, we found that SST changes in the high-latitude Northern Atlantic could explain more than one-third of the overall change in pCO2 induced by global SST change, suggesting an important feedback between the Laurentide ice sheet and pCO2.

Feeding macroecology of territorial damselfishes (Perciformes: Pomacentridae)

The present study provides the first analysis of the feeding macroecology of territorial damselfishes (Perciformes: Pomacentridae), a circumtropical family whose feeding and behavioral activities are important in structuring tropical and subtropical reef benthic communities. The analyses were conducted from data collected by the authors and from the literature. A strong positive correlation was observed between bite rates and sea surface temperature (SST) for the genus Stegastes. A negative correlation was found between bite rates and mean body size for the genera Stegastes and Pomacentrus, but this relationship was not significant when all territorial pomacentrids were analyzed together. A negative correlation between body size and SST was observed for the whole group and for the genera Stegastes, and Pomacentrus. No relationship was found between territory size and feeding rates. Principal Components Analysis showed that differences in feeding rates accounted for most of the variability in the data. It also suggested that body size may be important in characterizing the different genera. In general, tropical species are smaller and have higher bite rates than subtropical ones. This study extended the validity of Bergmann’s rule, which states that larger species or larger individuals within species occur towards higher latitudes and/or lower temperatures, for an important group of reef fishes. The identification of large-scale, robust ecological patterns in the feeding ecology of pomacentrid fishes may establish a foundation for predicting large-scale changes in reef fish assemblages with expected future changes in global SST.