Domestic Policy Change Research Articles

EXPERIENCE AND PROSPECTS OF CHINA-UKRAINE ECONOMIC AND TRADE COOPERATION IN THE JOINT CONSTRUCTION OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE FROM 2013 TO 2023

In 2013, China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative with the aim of closely integrating its rapidly developing economy with the economies of countries along the Belt and Road route, creating new opportunities for economic development through complementarity. Ukraine, located in the connecting zone between Europe and Asia, is an important country along the Belt and Road route leading to Europe. 2023 marks the tenth anniversary of China-Ukraine cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the past decade, cooperation between China and Ukraine in various fields such as trade and investment has deepened, accumulating rich experience. This article systematically reviews the historical process of China-Ukraine cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative over the past ten years, analyzes the development trends of bilateral trade, and examines the experience accumulated in areas such as infrastructure, agriculture, investment, mineral development, and high-tech cooperation within the Belt and Road framework. The challenges faced by the two countries in jointly building the Belt and Road Initiative are also analyzed, mainly focusing on the impacts of Ukraine's domestic political instability and policy changes during regime transitions. Economic development in Ukraine has been affected by geopolitical conflicts, resulting in market instability and affecting investment and project progress. These factors pose challenges to the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the severe impact of the outbreak of war. Additionally, this article introduces the current efforts of China and Ukraine to strengthen communication and cooperation in order to achieve a peaceful resolution as soon as possible. In the future, once the ongoing war comes to an end, both countries can leverage their ten years of experience in economic and trade cooperation. With a stable political situation and increasing market attractiveness in Ukraine, both sides can fully unleash the role of market entities, expand bilateral cooperation, promote the alignment of their economic development strategies, and actively engage in post-war reconstruction cooperation.

The impact of COVID-19 on the financial performance of the UK construction firms

The COVID-19 outbreak was deemed a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), and the associated travel restrictions led to an unprecedented fall in the UK economic growth including the construction sector. Nevertheless, few quantitative studies assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the UK construction sector have been conducted as of now. So, this research aims to quantitatively assess the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects and causally evaluate its influence on the UK construction industry. We utilize panel data comprising financial information from listed UK construction firms spanning from 2015 to 2021. The findings reveal a substantial adverse impact of COVID-19 on business performance, with a notable improvement in performance in 2021 compared to 2020. It also proves that the supply chain disruption, labour shortage, and financial dilemma are the main reasons for the negative effect of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021, and increased vaccination rate, domestic policy changes, and potential for construction development are the possible reasons for the 2021 recovery. Despite the gradual easing of the epidemic situation, the construction industry must enhance its resilience to sudden disasters to effectively facilitate a robust economic recovery. It is essential to further examine the economic fluctuations caused by the pandemic emergency and the mechanisms for its recovery.

대내·외 정책 변화 요인이 추동한 북·러관계 연구

State relations accelerate the close cooperation and promotion when national interests coincide. The signing of the North Korea-Russia alliance treaty and Kim's first and second visits to Russia served as a driving force when domestic and foreign policy changes interact with national interests. If the China-Soviet conflict and the strengthening of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance led to the 1961 North Korea-Soviet Alliance Treaty, changes in the environment of the international order, including the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the ROK’s northern policy and Putin's equidistant foreign policy, led to the signing of the 2002 North Korea-Russia Friendship Treaty. A comparative analysis of Kim's first and second visits to Russia enabled the derivation of facilitating factors that accelerated the close relationship between North Korea and Russia and challenging factors. This shows that under the international order dominated by power, close contact is accelerated when national interests, such as domestic and foreign environmental factors of North Korea and Russia, namely, domestic political system (leadership), diversification of economy and diplomacy, and securing resources. It is time for strategic thinking that can bring maximum effect with minimal effort through stable situation management of the impact of the US-China-Russia mutual state relations variable. Amid expectations of changes in domestic and foreign exchange environments, it is necessary to closely analyze the impact of North Korea-Russia relations on security in Northeast Asia and devise countermeasures while strengthening the South Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance.

The asymmetric impact of input prices, the Russia-Ukraine war and domestic policy changes on wholesale electricity prices in India: A quantile autoregressive distributed lag analysis

This paper investigates the presence of asymetry in the long-run relationship between wholesale electricity prices (ep) in the day-ahead market and fossil fuel (coal, oil and gas) prices, the exchange rate (er) and economic policy uncertainty (epu) in India, and how the Real-Time Market introduced on 01/06/2020, and the Russia-Ukraine war have affected these relationships. Using daily data from 28/06/2008 to 30/04/2023, and both the quantile auto-regressive distributed lag and the quantile regression methods, we find asymmetric long run relationships, with pronounced and asymmetric impacts in the upper quantiles of ep. Results with the full sample suggest that increases in er and coal significantly raise ep in the upper quantiles; vol and epu have a negative long-term effect on ep. Furthermore, the Real-Time Market has reduced price distortions and brought efficiency to the day-head market. The war increases ep because of supply-chain shockwaves in the input markets. Our results suggest introducing policies aiming at reducing inefficiency to mitigate external shocks.

The war in Ukraine, the EU’s geopolitical awakening and implications for the “contested neighbourhood”

ABSTRACT This article looks at how the Russian invasion has reshaped the EU's Eastern neighbourhood policy and subsequently how has the new policy affected the strategies of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. We systematically review policy responses to the war of the EU and the countries of the EU-Russia contested neighbourhood and identify new patterns in foreign policy behavior of these states and key domestic policy changes. We specifically highlight the shift in two key attributes of the EU's foreign policy, which has traditionally defined its neighbourhood policy: its relations with Russia and the inclusiveness of the EaP countries in the European project. We make two arguments: first, the crisis and new risks in the region has created a demand and opened a geopolitical dimension to the EU neighbourhood policy, which required Brussels to fill a hard security vacuum in its own policies in the neighbourhood, which invoked an application of new instruments to deter Moscow and support EU's Eastern allies. Second, the crisis contributes to even faster erosion of the post-Soviet space and a new regional fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Finally, the question of sustainability of these changes and their effect on the EU as an actor remains open.

Argentina’s Foreign Policy Under Milei: Limited Disruption?

The decisive victory of Javier Milei in Argentina’s 2023 presidential elections signalled major changes in domestic policies and potential shifts in the country’s foreign policy and global positioning. During his campaign, Milei advocated a Western-oriented alignment with the United States, Israel and the ‘free world’, vowing to sever ties with ‘communist’ countries, including Brazil and China – Argentina’s major trading and economic partners. But his capacity to do this will likely be constrained by pressure to maintain domestic stability and his own ultra-libertarian principles. While Argentina probably will increasingly look West under Milei, the extent to which ties with the Global South, including Brazil and China, can be curtailed remains uncertain. The need for economic continuity and stability may temper Milei’s ability and inclination to break or significantly downgrade important relationships, pointing to substantial continuity in foreign and trade policy.

Russia and the Netherlands in the First Half of the 18th Century:
 the Main Stages of the Development of Bilateral Relations

The study of Russian-Dutch relations in the first half of the 18th century is of interest in terms of studying the process of Russia's entry into the all-European system. This article examines in the context of all-European relations the main features and peculiarities of the development of Russian-Dutch mutual relations during four main stages: the period of the Northern War; 1725–1730; the 30s associated with the War of the Polish succession; the 40s of the 18th century - the period of the War
 of the Austrian succession. It turns out that during the Northern War, Russian-Dutch relations changed depending on the international conjuncture and the specifics of the trade policy pursued by Russia. In the first years after the death of Peter I, in 1725–1730, Russian-Dutch diplomatic relations changed due to general changes in Russia's domestic and foreign policy. The revival of 1725–1726 was replaced by the recession of 1727–1730. In the 30s of the 18th century, political, diplomatic and trade relations between Russia and the Netherlands continued to develop, and this happening more often in the context of all-European relations. The latter trend intensified as Russia entered the European system, which found its expression at the next stage of the development of Russian-Dutch relations – during the War of the Austrian Succession. Summing up, we can highlight the following important trend: traditionally focused on trade relations, Russian-Dutch relations are increasingly becoming dependent on the peculiarities of the international situation in Europe, on the balance of power on the international arena.

The Innovative Nature of Selected Polish Companies in the Energy Sector Compared to the Use of Renewable Energy Sources from a Financial and an Investor’s Perspective

Analysis of the energy sector from the micro perspective that relates to individual companies is much rarer than a macroeconomic analysis that concerns the power industry as a whole and its impact on the functioning of the economy. However, energy companies directly implement the government’s energy policies and innovation strategies. Thus, this article attempts to answer the question concerning the relationships in three large energy companies operating in Poland (1) between the use of renewable resources for production and the innovative nature of a company, (2) between the use of renewable energy sources and the standing on the stock exchange and profitability. This study used multiple case studies, financial analysis indicators, a time series analysis, and an interdependence analysis. This study covers 2011–2022 and allows consideration of long-term changes in domestic energy policy. Our findings suggest that there is a relationship between a company’s investment activity and the use of renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, the scope of the use of RESs in these companies is small (from ca. 1% to 15%, which demonstrates the low progress of green transformation) and has negative correlations with the investors’ assessment and profitability. In relation to innovation, the ratio of intangible assets to total assets was the highest for Tauron SA, increasing from 1.96% to 5.16%. Its material commitment to innovation is distinguishable from the other two companies. This is also the company with the highest share of RESs in energy production. The second place belongs to Enea SA with its ratio of intangible assets to total assets that increased from 0.72% to 1.69%. The ratio was lowest for PGE SA, increasing from 0.37% to 1.47%. The results and standing of the analyzed energy companies are strongly affected by energy policy amendments, including the improved status of coal and the re-oriented use of RESs (prioritizing solar energy over wind). As a result, these companies, despite the twelve-year period of the implementation of green transformation in the European Union, have achieved little on the path to sustainable energy. Therefore, achieving the goal of a zero-emission economy seems unlikely, since the renewable energy mix is still very slight and not diversified. Changes in energy policy are also not conducive to sectoral and economic innovation.

Foreign Policy Issues of the Republic of Turkey and the United States in the Period after the End of the Cold War until the 2020

At the beginning of the 21st century, in 2002, a new political era began with the arrival of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Islam-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the head of the Republic of Turkey, which was gradually followed by changes in both foreign and domestic policy of the country.
 The main ideologist of modern Turkey’s foreign policy is one of the founders of the Justice and Development Party and Erdogan’s ally, former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, who outlined the strategic priorities of Turkey’s foreign policy in his pioneering work Strategic Depth. In his doctrine, Ahmet Davutoglu argues that Turkey has “strategic depth” that allows it to pursue an independent foreign policy and claims to be the leading state in the region.
 As we know, the Republic of Turkey is located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. According to the doctrine, precisely because of its geographical position and historical ties, it has a desire to influence all these regions (the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, and the Black Sea), what is considered the core of neo-Ottoman ideology.
 Neo-Ottomanism implies a shift of the Turkish political vector from West to East. Since the beginning of the 21st century, neo-Ottomanism as an ideology has become a force responsible for the shape of political life of Turkey. According to the ideology of neo-Ottomanism, the Republic of Turkey must get rid of the subordination of the United States, which will allow it to put itself on a par with such states as Britain, France, Russia, and China.
 Neo-Ottomanism is the main ideological direction of the new foreign policy of the Republic of Turkey. One of the arguments used by Erdogan and his party in moving from a parliamentary to a presidential model is the fact that the country needs a government that is almost as strong and centralized as the Ottoman Empire. At the same time, the president himself and his entourage constantly emphasize that the Turks are the “heirs of the Ottomans” and that the country must return to its former glory and strengthen its political, economic and cultural influence in the former territories of the Ottoman Empire.
 Thus, neo-Ottomanism is part of the official ideology of the Justice and Development Party and the basis of the country’s new identity, shaped by the political elite over the years. Although there is no direct indication of Turkish regional hegemony in the “strategic depth”, most analysts, especially in the West, believe that the expansion of spheres of influence mentioned in the doctrine is, in fact, nothing more than the restoration of Turkey’s monopoly hegemony in the region, but this times by means adapted to the modern era, in particular through the use of political, economic and cultural expansion and other “soft power” tools.

Don’t Cry No More: A Comparative Study of U.S. Domestic and Foreign Restrictions on Riot Control Agent Use

ABSTRACT What catalysed the changing status of riot control agents (RCAs hereafter) use in wartime? Is that the same catalyst causing domestic policy change for RCAs today? The relationship between war and technology is dynamic, with regular advances to make militaries and police more effective. Some emergent chemical-based technologies are quickly restricted as chemical weapons; others are deemed permissible in perpetuity. However, there may be a third option where classification can change from permissible to restricted over time. We use a structured, focused comparative case study of the United States to understand the INUS causes of this shift at both the domestic and international level of policymaking, particularly where RCAs like tear gas are concerned. To determine this, we ask (1) what processes led to policy change; (2) which factors or forces motivated policy change; and (3) were the same factors present at both the domestic and international level of policy change? By investigating these questions, we find that normative logics are necessary but not sufficient for causing RCA’s changing status. Factors like social pressure and issue saliency, among others, create the necessary environment for norms to impact the RCAs’ status.

External Balance and Financialization: An Interpretation of the Evolution of the Brazilian Economy Since 2000

Brazil experienced a complete economic cycle with an ascending phase in the 2000s, followed by a decline during the following decade. Using the national accounts, the objective of this article is to trace the growth path of the Brazilian economy from the 2000s onwards through a detailed analysis of the financial balance and income flows of the institutional sectors. It will be shown that the economy has two relevant points of inflection: the first was the external shock occasioned by the 2008 global financial crisis, and the second was the change in domestic economic policy after 2015 following an austerity agenda. The article compares the financial balance of the institutional sectors at the two historical moments. It sheds new light on why the Brazilian economy entered the descending phase of the economic cycle and is stagnating and deepening its financialization process.

The resignation of president Nguyen Xuan Phuc and main features of the fight against corruption in Vietnam

The article presents an analysis of the situation in Vietnam after the resignation of President Nguyen Xuan Phuc. It is shown that for the first time as a result of a large-scale anti-corruption campaign a member of the Big Four was was dismissed, however, in general, there are no reasons for major changes in Vietnams foreign and domestic policy, as well as in relation to major foreign players and investors. According to the author, Vietnam, after top-level personnel rotation, will continue stable relations with foreign partners in the traditional more friends, less enemies format, and in domestic politics, the implementation of the decisions of the XIII Congress of the CPV will be continued. It is concluded that regular resignations and bringing to justice of compromised high-ranking officials and representatives of big business allow to maintain controllability of the country and high authority of the central apparatus of the CPV, which leads the process. Otherwise, the processes will begin to control the party, which can lead to a loss of power and unpredictable political changes.

Polska dyplomacja wobec Związku Radzieckiego po przewrocie majowym

The May Coup did not initially bring about any major changes in Polish foreign policy, although the post-May governmental circles put a stronger emphasis on the Promethean idea and the concept of the Intermarium. In mutual relations between Warsaw and Moscow, a dialogue on the Polish-Soviet non-aggression treaty continued, as before 1926. The main point of contention was Warsaw's position on the necessity of concluding a Polish-Soviet non-aggression pact simultaneously with Moscow's analogous agreements with: Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Romania. The article presents the path to the agreement from the perspective of Warsaw, taking into account the changing international situation, including the rise of fascist tendencies in Europe, the threat of war and changes in the USSR's domestic policy. The agreement of 25 January 1932 and the non-agreement pact of 25 July that year between Poland and the USSR were the high points of mutually correct relations. Later years, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and 17 September showed that Sanation diplomacy was unable to prevent Poland from losing its independence. Whether this catastrophe could have been prevented remains a matter of dispute.

Predicting long‐run risk factors of stock returns: Evidence from Australia

AbstractThis study utilises the stock market data provided by the Australian Equity Database to analyse the long‐run relationship between Australian stock returns and key macroeconomic variables over the period 1926–2017. To measure the diverse risk factors in the stock market, we examine the possible determinants in four main categories: real, financial, domestic and international. Our results reveal that historical stock returns are strongly connected to financial and international factors as compared to real and domestic factors. Both the 1973–1974 OPEC Oil Price Crisis and 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis had dampening effects on stock returns. There is a positive association between the US and Australian stock markets in the long‐run. These findings on stock market dynamics and their linkages with domestic and international macroeconomic policy changes in the long‐run have important implications for traders and practitioners.

Dark money, US security guarantees and the twisting of allied arms

How can powerful states best extract domestic concessions from their junior allies? What are the conditions under which the powerful state is more likely to succeed in inducing such domestic policy change? This article explores the link between US security commitments and Washington’s ability to attain favourable policy outcomes within the allied domestic arena. It provides an illustrative case of how the USA, using security guarantees as leverage, can enter allied domestic space and shape its decision-making process. After it was revealed that Latvia had served as a key node through which North Korea attempted to evade the sanctions regime, the USA, by playing its security guarantor card, pressured Riga to carry out substantial policy reforms in relation to its financial system. This approach yielded considerable results. In order to preserve the existing security arrangements with the dominant alliance member, Latvia offered significant policy concessions. This finding demonstrates that US security alliances come with side benefits that are often underrated or neglected in the scholarly literature.

РОЗВИТОК БАГАТОСТОРОННЬОГО МІЖДЕРЖАВНОГО СПІВРОБІТНИЦТВА ЩОДО ГЕНДЕРНИХ ПИТАНЬ НА БЛИЗЬКОМУ СХОДІ (КІНЕЦЬ ХХ – ПОЧАТОК ХХІ СТ.)

The article attempts to analyze the development of forms and manifestations of multilateral intergovernmental cooperation on gender issues in the Middle East at the end of the 20th - beginning of the 21st century. The Middle East region, in religious and civilizational dimensions, is quite specific in terms of the comprehensive implementation of the ideas of feminism and overcoming gender gaps. However, as a result of the study, the effectiveness of the region’s involvement in both global initiatives on gender issues and the formation of its own mechanisms and tools for the protection of women was revealed, which is implemented in the following practical acts. Firstly, the involvement of the Middle East region as an object of activity of the United Nations Structure for Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women (“UN-Women”) aimed at protecting women in conflicts and granting equal rights to women alongside men. Secondly, the formation of a regulatory framework and programs on gender issues in the activities of the regional organization  the League of Arab States (LAD). It was found that the existing mechanism of intergovernmental cooperation in the LAD regarding the implementation of gender equality and the role of women in Arab society is not sufficiently effective, given the advisory nature of the organization’s decisions, and it is not sufficiently implemented in practice by all Middle Eastern states. It should be stressed on the positive and fruitful activity of the Arab Women Organization, which has a number of programs for the protection of Arab women and their rights. Thirdly, the dialogue between the Middle East and North Africa in the format of the MENA region is quite developed – the holding of African-Arab summits between the African Union and the League of Arab States, launched in 1977, which are aimed at jointly solving gender issues. The authors concluded that the Middle East region still has to overcome a number of barriers and domestic policy changes to protect women’s rights, but the initiation and development of dialogue on a multilateral basis is a positive step in achieving global trends in ensuring gender equality and feminism in general.

Партия справедливости и развития и проект “Новой Турции”

After 2010, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) returned the concept of “New Turkey” to the official political vocabulary. This return took place against the backdrop of such changes in Turkish foreign and domestic policies that gave observers grounds to talk of Erdogan’s “revolution” and compare it with the “revolution” of Ataturk. Although Erdogan’s “New Turkey” is largely thought of as a project significantly opposite to Ataturk’s “New Turkey”, in fact, both these projects are in a complex and confusing relationship with each other. Despite all the differences between them, they intend to make Turkey a member of the club of the leading powers that shape the basic contours of the world order. However, while Ataturk tried to achieve this goal by integrating Turkey to the Western world, Erdogan seeks to make the “New Turkey” one of the centers of the emerging post-Western world order. Despite the ongoing changes in Turkey and the AKP’s narrative of a successful transition from “Old” to “New” Turkey, the model of a new political order, which is seen as post-Kemalist, post-Western and post-Westphalian, is still poorly theorized. The understanding of modernity offered by the AKP is vague, fluid and contains many uncertainties. This article examines the case of Erdogan’s “New Turkey” as an example of finding one’s own path to modernity based on the simultaneous rejection and selective use of the Kemalist legacy.

Promoting women’s leadership under environmental decentralization: The roles of domestic policy, foreign aid, and population change

In recent decades, countries across Asia, Latin America, and Africa have adopted environmental decentralization reforms to encourage the community-based management of water, forests, fisheries, and other natural resources. While such reforms are meant to empower rural people to participate in environmental governance, experiences from recent decades suggest that these reforms often suffer from gendered inequalities in participation and leadership. We use the case of a forestry-sector decentralization reform in Nepal to test the importance of domestic policy, foreign aid, and population change for promoting women’s leadership under environmental decentralization. Using data on local natural resource governance committees formed in villages across the country under the reform, we find that a non-binding government guideline encouraging committees to prioritize women’s leadership resulted in an estimated increase of 7.5% points in the number of leadership seats held by women on these committees. We also show that locally-targeted, sector-specific foreign aid projects appear to have a strong impact, with rates of women’s leadership that are estimated to be 24% points higher in committees formed in areas with projects, compared to rates in comparable committees formed in areas without such projects at the time of formation. Finally, we instrument for international male out-migration in rural Nepal, and find no apparent effect of international male out-migration on rates of women’s leadership in local natural resource governance committees. The results highlight the importance of domestic policy, even without stringent enforcement, and targeted foreign aid projects for promoting women’s leadership under environmental decentralization.

What Is the Future of Transnational Advocacy in the Digital Era? A Review of Transnational Advocacy in the Digital Era: Think Global, Act Local, by Nina Hall (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021)

How does transnational advocacy change in the digital era? In Transnational Advocacy in the Digital Era: Thinking Global, Acting Local, Nina Hall argues that a new type of digitial advocacy groups has shifted its focus away from an international campaign focus to domestic politics and have abandoned the staff-driven and single issue model for a membership-focused approach to campaign topic selection and strategizing. The book is based on an ethnographic study of the Online Progressive Engagement Network (OPEN) and additional analysis of similar digitally native groups. It charts their emergence and evolution, critically evaluates their strategic portfolio, and explores their contributions to domestic policy changes on climate, refugees, indigenous rights, and global trade. The book reminds scholars of transnational advocacy that new forms of activism regularly challenge the dominance of traditional groups established well before the internet age.

An empirical analysis of homicides in Mexico through Machine Learning and statistical design of experiments

Homicide is one of the most important mortality causes that has reduced the Mexican life expectancy. That is why the aim of this work is to identify some sociodemographic and economic factors that can help explain homicides in Mexico and measure their impact, assuming the current conditions prevail. To do that, several Machine Learning (ML) methods were evaluated. The C5.0 model is best suited for the data at hand. After fine-tuning the algorithm, we used the estimated model to identify the main factors that explain homicides. Among these factors, eleven were selected that can be influenced by direct changes in domestic public policy, laws and/or regulations. These were used as input in a two-level fractional factorial Statistical Design of Experiments (DOE) to estimate their main effects and possible interactions. Although several of these factors had statistically significant effects on homicide rate, the one that had the biggest and direct impact from a practical perspective, was the Rule of Law Index (RLI). In fact, if we assumed that all states had the median RLI of 0.37, implementing domestic policies and procedures to move them all to the best RLI level could significantly reduce homicide rates.