Changes In Fire Regimes Research Articles

Microbial community shifts reflect losses of native soil carbon with pyrogenic and fresh organic matter additions and are greatest in low-carbon soils.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in regulating global climate change, carbon and nutrient cycling in soils, and soil moisture. Organic matter (OM) additions to soils can affect the rate at which SOC is mineralized by microbes, with potentially important effects on SOC stocks. Understanding how pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) affects the cycling of native SOC (nSOC) and the soil microbes responsible for these effects is important for fire-affected ecosystems as well as for biochar-amended systems. We used an incubation trial with five different soils from National Ecological Observatory Network sites across the US and 13C-labelled 350°C corn stover PyOM and fresh corn stover OM to trace nSOC-derived CO2 emissions with and without PyOM and OM amendments. We used high-throughput sequencing of rRNA genes to characterize bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities and their response to PyOM and OM in soils that were previously stored at -80°C. We found that the effects of amendments on nSOC-derived CO2 reflected the unamended soil C status, where relative increases in C mineralization were greatest in low-C soils. OM additions produced much greater effects on nSOC-CO2 emissions than PyOM additions. Furthermore, the magnitude of microbial community composition change mirrored the magnitude of increases in nSOC-CO2, indicating a specific subset of microbes were likely responsible for the observed changes in nSOC mineralization. However, PyOM responders differed across soils and did not necessarily reflect a common "charosphere". Overall, this study suggests that soils that already have low SOC may be particularly vulnerable to short-term increases in SOC loss with OM or PyOM additions.Importance Soil organic matter (SOM) has an important role in global climate change, carbon and nutrient cycling in soils, and soil moisture dynamics. Understanding the processes that affect SOM stocks is important for managing these functions. Recently, understanding how fire-affected organic matter (or "pyrogenic" organic matter (PyOM)) affects existing SOM stocks has become increasingly important, both due to changing fire regimes, and to interest in "biochar" - pyrogenic organic matter that is produced intentionally for carbon management or as an agricultural soil amendment. We found that soils with less SOM were more prone to increased losses with PyOM (and fresh organic matter) additions, and that soil microbial communities changed more in soils that also had greater SOM losses with PyOM additions. This suggests that soils that already have low SOM content may be particularly vulnerable to short-term increases in SOM loss, and that a subset of the soil microbial community is likely responsible for these effects.

Wildfire as a natural stressor and its effect on female phenotype and ornament development.

Controlled low‐intensity fires are commonly used in ecosystem management for both habitat restoration and wildfire management. Animals in those ecosystems may respond to fire by shifting energy allocation away from reproduction and growth, and toward maintenance. Stress‐induced shifts in energy allocation may affect the expression of condition‐dependent sexual signals, which are sensitive to energetic and physiological trade‐offs mediated by glucocorticoids. Here, we examine the effect of fire on ornament expression, corticosterone, and other phenotypic traits in a population of striped plateau lizards, Sceloporus virgatus, affected by the Horseshoe 2 Fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona, USA. The condition‐dependent female ornament was significantly smaller the month following the fire than 2 years prior and was both smaller and less orange on the burned site relative to a nearby unburned site. These patterns are similar to those found in a previous experimental study examining the response of the ornament to corticosterone manipulations. Yet, in the current study, corticosterone levels were not different in lizards on the burned and unburned sites. Perhaps glucocorticoid levels already returned to baseline, or do not adequately track environmental change. Females tended to be smaller and lighter on the burned site than the unburned site; however, the year after the fire, body condition was higher for females on the burned site, indicating a rapid recovery and potential long‐term benefits in response to low‐intensity fires in this fire‐adapted ecosystem. We found that the lizards adjusted energy allocation away from sexual signaling and growth in response to low‐intensity fires. As fires and fire management are likely to increase in response to changing fire regimes across the globe, it will be important to consider behavioral and physiological responses of impacted species, as well as population‐, community‐, and ecosystem‐level responses.

When do grasses resprout after fire?

This article is a Commentary on Simpson et al. (2021), 230: 832–844.

Estimating social-ecological resilience: fire management futures in the Sonoran Desert.

Resilience quantifies the ability of a system to remain in or return to its current state following disturbance. Due to inconsistent terminology and usage of resilience frameworks, quantitative resilience studies are challenging, and resilience is often treated as an abstract concept rather than a measurable system characteristic. We used a novel, spatially explicit stakeholder engagement process to quantify social-ecological resilience to fire, in light of modeled social-ecological fire risk, across the non-fire-adapted Sonoran Desert Ecosystem in Arizona, USA. Depending on its severity and the characteristics of the ecosystem, fire as a disturbance has the potential to drive ecological state change. As a result, fire regime change is of increasing concern as global change and management legacies alter the distribution and flammability of fuels. Because management and use decisions impact resources and ecological processes, social and ecological factors must be evaluated together to predict resilience to fire. We found highest fire risk in the central and eastern portions of the study area, where flammable fuels occur with greater density and frequency and managers reported fewer management resources than in other locations. We found lowest fire resilience in the southeastern portion of the study area, where combined ecological and social factors, including abundant fuels, few management resources, and little evidence of past institutional adaptability, indicated that sites were least likely to retain their current characteristics and permit achievement of current management objectives. Analyzing ecological and social characteristics together permits regional managers to predict the effects of changing fire regimes across large, multi-jurisdictional landscapes and to consider where to direct resources. This study brought social and ecological factors together into a common spatial framework to produce vulnerability maps; our methods may inform researchers and managers in other systems facing novel disturbance and spatially variable resilience.

Litter trait driven dampening of flammability following deciduous forest community shifts in eastern North America

Global change has contributed to substantial vegetation shifts across many ecosystems through altered fire-vegetation feedbacks, but the direction, strength, and mechanism of these processes vary considerably. Most prior studies have focused on fire-vegetation feedbacks that enhance community flammability with less emphasis on examples of feedbacks resulting from dampened flammability. Widespread fire exclusion in many deciduous forests and woodlands of eastern North America has caused substantive changes in overstory species composition. These changes have led to feedbacks that are hypothesized to decrease community flammability (i.e. mesophication) to the detriment of fire-dependent “pyrophytes”. Mesophytic species, such as maple (Acer spp.), are implicated in these fire regime changes and have extensively invaded many oak (Quercus spp.) landscapes across the region. To date, only limited circumstantial evidence is available in support of dampened flammability as the mechanism contributing to mesophication. Here we use laboratory experiments to determine whether red maple (A. rubrum) and sugar maple (A. saccharum) could reduce forest floor flammability through the input of their leaf litter. Wetting, drying, and burning characteristics of three pyrophytic oaks, white oak (Q. alba), northern red oak (Q. rubra), and chestnut oak (Q. montana), and the two mesophytic maples revealed the strong potential for red maple to reduce community flammability. Red maple absorbed the greatest amount of water, was the slowest to dry, and was the least flammable among these species while white oak was the most resistant to water absorption, the fastest to dry, and the most flammable. Northern red oak, chestnut oak, and sugar maple were intermediate in their moisture dynamics and flammability. The moisture and flammability responses of the species examined were a result of their corresponding leaf traits, with drying rate and curling having the strongest influence. Our findings provide substantial evidence that vegetation shifts resulting from an altered fire regime could result in dampened litter flammability that further limit fire and reinforce on-going changes.

Drought, fire and grazing precursors to large‐scale pine forest decline

AbstractAimTemperate forests are currently facing multiple stresses due to climate change, biological invasions, habitat fragmentation and fire regime change. How these stressors interact with each other influences how, when and whether ecosystems recover, or whether they adapt or transition to a different ecological state. Because forest recovery or collapse may take longer than a human lifetime, predicting the outcomes of different stressor combinations remains difficult. A clearer vision of future forest trajectories in a changing world may be gained by examining collapses of forests in the past. Here, we use long‐term ecological data to conduct a post‐mortem examination of the decline of maritime pine forests (Pinus pinaster Ait.) on the SW Iberian Peninsula 7000–6500 years ago.LocationPortugal and Spain.MethodsWe compared four palaeoecological records—two with pine declines and two without—using a multiproxy approach. Bioclimatic differences between the four sites were explored. Proxies for past vegetation and disturbance (fire and grazing) were compared with independent palaeoclimatic records. We performed functional traits analysis and used phase plots to examine the causes of pine decline.ResultsThe pine decline represents a critical transition in SW Iberia, which lies close to maritime pine's bioclimatic limits. Prolonged drought likely killed trees and suppressed the fires that normally stimulate pine germination and pinewood recovery. Increased grazing pressure facilitated the rapid spread of resprouter shrubs. These competed with pine trees and ultimately replaced them. Our data highlight complex interactions between climate, fire, grazing and forest resilience.Main ConclusionsThe pine decline occurred at least a century after post‐fire resprouters overtook obligate seeders in the vegetation, constituting an early‐warning signal of forest loss. Fire suppression, resprouter encroachment and grazing may threaten the persistence of Mediterranean forests as droughts become more frequent and extreme.

Are wildfires affecting seed germination in cactus? An experimental assessment

AbstractCacti are conspicuous plants across arid and semi‐arid ecosystems of the American continent and are currently under threat due to human pressures, such as habitat loss, illegal collection and changes in fire regimes. Although much of their habitat is highly fire prone, there are strikingly few studies on their germination response to fire cues. The aim of this work was to analyse the effect of heat shock (simulating wildfires) on the ‘germination %’ and the ‘mean germination time’ of 13 cactus species of two growth forms (six columnar and seven globose) from a fire‐prone cactus diversity hotspot in Córdoba Mountains, central Argentina. We also analysed the effect of growth form and seed mass on species responses. Seeds were subjected to the following treatments: 70°C/5 min, 70°C/10 min, 105°C/5 min, 105°C/10 min and a control (i.e. no heat). Germination decreased under at least one treatment in seven species, increased in three species, had contrasting changes in one species, and showed no effect of treatments in two species. Germination was faster in eight species, slower in one species and showed no effects of treatments in four species. Germination was significantly higher for globose species following the 70°C/10 min treatment and for columnar species under the treatment of 110°C/10 min; while germination time did not differ between growth forms. Seed mass did not have a significant effect on germination, and only affected germination time under the 70ºC treatments, under which lighter seeds germinated faster than heavier seeds. Our results show that the studied species exhibited a high diversity of responses, with most of the species presenting tolerance to heat shock, and that under certain conditions growth form and seed mass are important traits related to species responses to heat shock treatments.

Forecasting the Frequency and Magnitude of Postfire Debris Flows Across Southern California

AbstractSouthern California has a long history of damaging debris flows after wildfire. Despite recurrent loss, forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows are not available for the region like they are for earthquakes. Instead, debris flow hazards are typically assessed in a reactive manner after wildfires. Such assessments are crucial for evaluating debris flow risk by postfire emergency response teams; however, time between the fire and first rainstorm is often insufficient to fully develop and implement effective emergency response plans like those in place for earthquakes. Here, we use both historical distributions of fire and precipitation frequency and empirical models of postfire debris flow likelihood and volume to map the expected frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows across southern California. We find that at least small debris flows can be expected almost every year, while major debris flows capable of damaging 40 or more structures have a recurrence interval between 10 and 13 years, a return interval that is comparable to a magnitude 6.7 earthquake. A sensitivity analysis to possible future changes in current fire and precipitation regimes indicates that debris flow activity in southern California is more sensitive to increases in precipitation intensity than increases in fire frequency and severity. Projected increases in rainfall intensity of 18% result in an overall 110% increase in the probability of major debris flows. Our results, in combination with an assessment of exposure, can be used to prioritize watersheds for further analysis and possible prefire mitigation.

Decadal changes in fire frequencies shift tree communities and functional traits.

Global change has resulted in chronic shifts in fire regimes. Variability in the sensitivity of tree communities to multi-decadal changes in fire regimes is critical to anticipating shifts in ecosystem structure and function, yet remains poorly understood. Here, we address the overall effects of fire on tree communities and the factors controlling their sensitivity in 29 sites that experienced multi-decadal alterations in fire frequencies in savanna and forest ecosystems across tropical and temperate regions. Fire had a strong overall effect on tree communities, with an average fire frequency (one fire every three years) reducing stem density by 48% and basal area by 53% after 50 years, relative to unburned plots. The largest changes occurred in savanna ecosystems and in sites with strong wet seasons or strong dry seasons, pointing to fire characteristics and species composition as important. Analyses of functional traits highlighted the impact of fire-driven changes in soil nutrients because frequent burning favoured trees with low biomass nitrogen and phosphorus content, and with more efficient nitrogen acquisition through ectomycorrhizal symbioses. Taken together, the response of trees to altered fire frequencies depends both on climatic and vegetation determinants of fire behaviour and tree growth, and the coupling between fire-driven nutrient losses and plant traits.

Fire and montane vegetation dynamics through successive phases of human occupation in the northern Drakensberg, South Africa

Palaeoecological evidence is compared with the existing archaeological record to understand how changing human activity, over the past two millennia, impacted fire regimes and vegetation dynamics in the Drakensberg Mountains, South Africa. Sediment cores from two wetland sites in the Cathedral Peak area of the northern Drakensberg, KwaZulu-Natal are dated using accelerator mass spectrometry to chronologically support biological proxy data. Fossil pollen analysis is used to detect changes in vegetation composition, and macroscopic charcoal to reconstruct changing fire regimes. Charcoal accumulation rates (CHAR) are used as a proxy for burned biomass, and charcoal width-to-length ratio (W/L) as a proxy for dominant fuel type, whether grassy or woody. Results indicate an increase in CHAR, coincident with the appearance of cereal-type grasses (>40 μm) c. 550 cal BP, suggesting a change in fire regimes associated with the arrival of early agropastoralists. A notable decline in charcoal W/L at this time indicates a shift towards a more grassy fuel type. This is consistent with a seasonal shift in the timing of ignitions from high intensity late season lightning fires to low intensity early season anthropogenic fires. The latter are less damaging to woody vegetation explaining an overall shift to a more grassy fuel type. Large scale ecosystem change is evident in the colonial period, including decreased forest pollen taxa such as Podocarpus, which may be linked to colonial period logging. The increased dominance of Pteridium spores documents the invasion trajectory of bracken fern into montane grasslands in the area, which is attributed to ecosystem disturbance in the form of colonial fire suppression. The subalpine wetland clearly documents woody encroachment of the surrounding open grassland landscape during the agropastoral and subsequent colonial periods. By contrast, at the montane wetland site, these trends appear to be overprinted by local forest dynamics and recent deforestation, likely an elevation effect. Palaeoecological evidence demonstrates how changes in fire regimes and vegetation composition in the northern Drakensberg are closely tied to human activity over the past two millennia.

Past and future potential range changes in one of the last large vertebrates of the Australian continent, the emu Dromaius novaehollandiae

In Australia, significant shifts in species distribution have occurred with the loss of megafauna, changes in indigenous Australian fire regime and land-use changes with European settlement. The emu, one of the last megafaunal species in Australia, has likely undergone substantial distribution changes, particularly near the east coast of Australia where urbanisation is extensive and some populations have declined. We modelled emu distribution across the continental mainland and across the Great Dividing Range region (GDR) of eastern Australia, under historical, present and future climates. We predicted shifts in emu distribution using ensemble modelling, hindcasting and forecasting distribution from current emu occurrence data. Emus have expanded their range northward into central Australia over the 6000 years modelled here. Areas west of the GDR have become more suitable since the mid-Holocene, which was unsuitable then due to high precipitation seasonality. However, the east coast of Australia has become climatically sub-optimal and will remain so for at least 50 years. The north east of NSW encompasses the range of the only listed endangered population, which now occurs at the margins of optimal climatic conditions for emus. Being at the fringe of suitable climatic conditions may put this population at higher risk of further decline from non-climatic anthropogenic disturbances e.g. depredation by introduced foxes and pigs. The limited scientific knowledge about wild emu ecology and biology currently available limits our ability to quantify these risks.

Реконструкция палеопожаров Кулундинской степи для последних 3500 лет по данным из донных отложений озера Малое Яровое

For several millennia, Kulunda has been inhabited by the peoples with different types of economy, but the paleoecological aspect of their habitation has remained understudied. The most promising source of paleoecological information is natural archives of lake sediments. This article presents the first results of studying macro-charcoals in the sediment core from Lake Maloe Yarovoe. Fire conditions for the last 3500 years and type of fuel (wood or grasses) are reconstructed for each period, based on macro-charcoal analysis. Data on the type of fuel and distribution of charcoals by depth in the core were compared with palynological data, reconstructed level of mean annual precipitation, and reconstruction of vegetation from the same core obtained by other methods. The results were also compared with another macro-charcoal column from Lake Kuchuk, which was the only researched column for the south of Western Siberia. The results were compared with archaeological data on the type of economy among the different cultures which inhabited the area in various periods. It has been established that the patterns of coal distribution do not correlate with changes in vegetation and show a weak negative correlation with the level of average annual precipitation, which means that fire activity increased with increased level of precipitation. A temporal connection of change in fire regimes and types of fuel, with change in the types of economy has been observed. From 3500 to 2700 BP, during the prevalence of cattle-breeding type of economy, fire activity was maximal, occurring mainly in the steppe. By the end of the Bronze Age, with the beginning of transition to the nomadic type of economy, intensity of fires decreased, and forest began to be burned. After 1500 BP, when the nomadic type of economy prevailed, fire activity in the area of Lake Maloe Yarovoe sharply decreased. The increase in fire activity with predominance of wood charcoals in the last 200 years coincided with exploration of the region by the Russian settlers.

Post-Fire Recovery of Vegetation and Diversity Patterns in Semiarid Pinus halepensis Mill. Habitats after Salvage Logging

After wildfires, emergency actions and post-fire management are implemented to mitigate fire damage. Salvage logging is a tool often applied to burned stands, but despite being a post-fire forest management tool to restore ecosystem functions, its ecological effects remain poorly understood. In the Mediterranean Basin, where land use and land-use change are bringing about changes in drought periods and fire regimes, optimal treatments should be included in adaptive management in order to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. In July 2012, a mid- to high-burn severity fire burned almost 7000 ha of an Aleppo pine forest (Pinus halepensis Mill.) in southeastern Spain. Five years later (late spring 2017), we designed an experimental study to monitor four stand categories on a burn severity basis (unburned mature stands, low-burn severity stands, and high-burn severity stands) and a salvage logging operation carried out 6 months after the fire in high-burn severity areas. We set 60 circular plots (15 in each treatment scenario) and 180 linear transects (3 per plot, 45 per scenario) to check the ecological facilitation of pine trees and snags (canopy size and/or perch effect). We estimated plant alpha diversity (floristic richness, abundance and dominance indices) and post-fire plant recovery (pine recruitment and adaptive traits). Fire depleted the system’s diversity, but in low-severity burning areas some basic functions remained intact (e.g., soil protection). We found that high-burn severity very negatively impacted ecosystem functions through the removal of duff and litter leaving unprotected soil. Collecting wood reduced pine regeneration and growth, which was considerable in the areas that suffered high-burn severity. The burned snags did not appear to act as perches resulting in seed dispersal. Obligate seeders were determined to be an efficient strategy for facing high-severity fires, whereas resprouters response showed no clear burn severity pattern despite being present in all the scenarios. Therefore, salvage logging did not affect the recovery of some ecosystem properties/features (such as plant total cover or litter cover), although retaining dead pines facilitated pine regeneration. Thus, leaving snags in areas affected by high-burn severity in ecosystems mainly modelled by fires is proposed. However, the ecosystem response could be widely variable and influenced by local abiotic factors, so restoration might not be as effective as in the current proposal.

Long‐term drivers of vegetation turnover in Southern Hemisphere temperate ecosystems

AbstractAimKnowledge of the drivers of ecosystem changes in the past is key to understanding present ecosystem responses to changes in climate, fire regimes and anthropogenic impacts. Northern Hemisphere‐focussed studies suggest that climate and human activities drove turnover during the Holocene in temperate ecosystems. Various drivers have been invoked to explain changes in Southern Hemisphere temperate vegetation, but the region lacks a quantitative assessment of these drivers. To better understand the regional drivers of past diversity, we present a quantitative meta‐analysis study of turnover and richness during the lateglacial and Holocene in Australian temperate ecosystems.LocationSouth‐east Australia (Tasmania, Bass Strait, SE mainland).MethodsWe conducted a meta‐analysis study of 24 fossil pollen records across south‐east Australian temperate ecosystems, applying an empirical turnover threshold to fossil records to identify periods of major turnover for the first time in Australia. We tested pollen richness as a proxy for vegetation richness to estimate past richness and applied this to fossil pollen data. The resulting reconstructions were compared to independent records of climate, sea‐level change and fire through generalized linear modelling.Results and conclusionOur results show changes in available moisture and sea level drove turnover and richness in most parts of SE Australia in the past, explaining up to c. 97% deviance. However, fire mainly drove turnover in Bass Strait. Our richness reconstructions also support the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, suggesting that high biodiversity was partially maintained by anthropogenic‐managed fire regimes. While temperature change is considered key to Northern Hemisphere palaeodiversity, past turnover and richness in Southern Hemisphere temperate ecosystems responded mainly to moisture availability and sea‐level change (considering its role in modulating regional oceanic climate).

Near-complete loss of fire-resistant primary tropical forest cover in Sumatra and Kalimantan

Deforestation in Indonesia in recent decades has made increasingly large parts of the region vulnerable to fires. Burning is particularly widespread in deforested peatlands, and it leads to globally significant carbon emissions. Here we use satellite-based observations to assess loss and fragmentation of primary forests and associated changes in fire regimes in Sumatra and Kalimantan between 2001 and 2019. We find that fires did not penetrate undisturbed primary forest areas deeper than two kilometres from the forest edge irrespective of drought conditions. However, fire-resistant forest now covers only 3% of peatlands and 4.5% of non-peatlands; the majority of the remaining primary forests are severely fragmented or degraded due to proximity to the forest edge. We conclude that protection and regeneration of the remaining blocks of contiguous primary forest, as well as peatland restoration, are urgently needed to mitigate the impacts of potentially more frequent fire events under future global warming.

Rootzone storage capacity reveals drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transitions

Climate change and deforestation have increased the risk of drought-induced forest-to-savanna transitions across the tropics and subtropics. However, the present understanding of forest-savanna transitions is generally focused on the influence of rainfall and fire regime changes, but does not take into account the adaptability of vegetation to droughts by utilizing subsoil moisture in a quantifiable metric. Using rootzone storage capacity (S r), which is a novel metric to represent the vegetation’s ability to utilize subsoil moisture storage and tree cover (TC), we analyze and quantify the occurrence of these forest-savanna transitions along transects in South America and Africa. We found forest-savanna transition thresholds to occur around a S r of 550–750 mm for South America and 400–600 mm for Africa in the range of 30%–40% TC. Analysis of empirical and statistical patterns allowed us to classify the ecosystem’s adaptability to droughts into four classes of drought coping strategies: lowly water-stressed forest (shallow roots, high TC), moderately water-stressed forest (investing in S r, high TC), highly water-stressed forest (trade-off between investments in S r and TC) and savanna-grassland regime (competitive rooting strategy, low TC). The insights from this study are useful for improved understanding of tropical eco-hydrological adaptation, drought coping strategies, and forest ecosystem regime shifts under future climate change.

Land management objectives and activities in the face of projected fire regime change in the Sonoran desert

As a multi-jurisdictional, non-fire-adapted region, the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion is a complex, social-ecological system faced increasingly with no-analogue conditions. A diversity of management objectives and activities form the socioecological landscape of fire management. Different managers have different objectives, resources, and constraints, and each therefore applies different activities. As a result, it can be difficult to predict the regional consequences of changing fire regimes. We interviewed and surveyed managers of 53 million acres of government-managed lands across the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion of Arizona, asking them to describe their management objectives and activities as well as expected changes in the face of projected fire regime change across the region. If current activities were deemed unlikely to meet objectives into the future, this represents a likely adaptation turning point, where new activities are required in order to meet objectives. If no potential activity will meet an objective, it may be necessary to select a new objective, indicating an adaptation tipping point. Here, we report which current objectives and activities are deemed by managers most likely and least likely to succeed. We also discuss constraints reported by managers from different jurisdictions. We find that agriculture, military, and resource extraction objectives are perceived by managers as most likely to be met, whereas conservation of natural and cultural resources is considered least likely to be achieved. Federal land managers reported higher likelihood of both achieving current objectives and adopting new activities than did non-federal land managers. This study illustrates how rapid global change is affecting the ability of land managers differing in missions, mandates, and resources to achieve their central objectives, as well as the constraints and opportunities they face. Our results indicate that changing environmental conditions are unlikely to affect all management entities equally and for some jurisdictions may result in adaptation turning points or tipping points in natural and cultural resource conservation.

Late-Holocene climate changes linked to ecosystem shifts in the Northwest Wisconsin Sand Plain, USA

Records of century-scale climate variability in the Upper Midwest generally agree that moisture availability increased between 4000 and 3000 cal. yr BP (calendar years before present = 1950 CE), and that there were large, frequent droughts 1000–700 cal. yr BP followed by wetter/cooler conditions. Variability among regional sites, however, remains problematic. In this study we reconstruct climate on the Northwest Wisconsin Sand Plain (NWSP), USA, to identify potential climatic drivers of previously documented changes in vegetation and fire regimes. Oak pollen was replaced by pollen from xeric pine taxa at several sites on the NWSP ~1425 cal. yr BP, accompanied by a change to larger, less frequent charcoal peaks. Another major vegetation change occurred ~700 cal. yr BP, when pollen of the more mesic P. strobus L. (white pine) increased and charcoal influx decreased. We used a vegetation-independent lake-level record to determine whether long-term changes in moisture availability were associated with these ecosystem changes. Decreases in percent organic matter in shallow-water sediment cores from Cheney Lake indicate that the lake level decreased sharply ~1500 cal. yr BP, consistent with the interpretation that the changes in vegetation and fire regime were driven by a severe and previously undocumented drought. The lake level rose again, reaching approximately modern levels by 800–700 cal. yr BP, consistent with the hypothesis of cooler/wetter conditions in the Upper Midwest in the past ~700 years and with the expansion of mesic taxa on the NWSP 700 cal. yr BP.

Fire's growing impacts on ecosystems

Fire Ecology Fire has played a prominent role in the evolution of biodiversity and is a natural factor shaping many ecological communities. However, the incidence of fire has been exacerbated by human activity, and this is now affecting ecosystems and habitats that have never been fire prone or fire adapted. Kelly et al. review how such changes are already threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems and discuss the trends causing changes in fire regimes. They also consider actions that could be taken by conservationists and policy-makers to help sustain biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity. Science , this issue p. [eabb0355][1] [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abb0355

Analysis of the Effect of Climate Warming on Paludification Processes: Will Soil Conditions Limit the Adaptation of Northern Boreal Forests to Climate Change? A Synthesis

Northern boreal forests are characterized by accumulation of accumulation of peat (e.g., known as paludification). The functioning of northern boreal forest species and their capacity to adapt to environmental changes appear to depend on soil conditions. Climate warming is expected to have particularly pronounced effects on paludified boreal ecosystems and can alter current forest species composition and adaptation by changing soil conditions such as moisture, temperature regimes, and soil respiration. In this paper, we review and synthesize results from various reported studies (i.e., 88 research articles cited hereafter) to assess the effects of climatic warming on soil conditions of paludified forests in North America. Predictions that global warming may increase the decomposition rate must be considered in combination with its impact on soil moisture, which appears to be a limiting factor. Local adaptation or acclimation to current climatic conditions is occurring in boreal forests, which is likely to be important for continued ecosystem stability in the context of climate change. The most commonly cited response of boreal forest species to global warming is a northward migration that tracks the climate and soil conditions (e.g., temperature and moisture) to which they are adapted. Yet, some constraints may influence this kind of adaptation, such as water availability, changes in fire regimes, decomposer adaptations, and the dynamic of peat accumulation. In this paper, as a study case, we examined an example of potential effects of climatic warming on future paludification changes in the eastern lowland region of Canada through three different combined hypothetical scenarios based on temperature and precipitation (e.g., unchanged, increase, or decrease). An increase scenario in precipitation will likely favor peat accumulation in boreal forest stands prone to paludification and facilitate forested peatland expansion into upland forest, while decreased or unchanged precipitation combined with an increase in temperature will probably favor succession of forested peatlands to upland boreal forests. Each of the three scenarios were discussed in this study, and consequent silvicultural treatment options were suggested for each scenario to cope with anticipated soil and species changes in the boreal forests. We concluded that, despite the fact boreal soils will not constrain adaptation of boreal forests, some consequences of climatic warming may reduce the ability of certain species to respond to natural disturbances such as pest and disease outbreaks, and extreme weather events.