Century Crisis Research Articles

Features and problems in the construction of the postunitary Italian banking system

The study of the evolution of Italian economy experienced, in recent years, new interpretive hypotheses, themselves based on the use of more updated series of historical data, The latter have brought scholars to reconsider, especially taking long-term viewpoints into account, the path Italy followed in joining the global economic system. Therefore, both Italian and international historiography have striven to highlight the most favorable elements, as well as the limits and the contradictions accompanying the nevertheless robust growth Italy experienced during the last 150 years. All this began for Italy as it joined, during the later 1800s, the productive mechanisms of the Second Industrial Revolution, fully maturing during the Golden Age. To fully understand such a path it is necessary to integrate, following a comparative, systemic and interdisciplinary approach, the behavioral analysis of some specific industrial sectors with the so-called system prerequisites to development including, and in an important position at that, the construction of the financial market and the shaping of the banking system. Within such a context, studying the period between the Unification of Italy and the “end of the century crisis” appears particularly important, as it is during this phase that some of the lines through which the model Italy used to join the process of the Second Industrial Revolution were shaped. Such a situation will challenge the future reforms, themselves a prelude to the takeoff Italy experienced during the Giolitti era.This contribution intends to highlight some features of the buildup of the Italian banking system within the framework of Italian nation building, between 1861 and 1893. In order to do that, besides offering an analysis of the political, economic and financial situation of the time, it examines the path, the uses and the crossings of capital which, starting with the financial movements recorded between the end of the 1860s and the beginning of the 1870s between the Centre-North of Italy, Germany and Austria and then pouring into the activities of the Banca Tiberina, based in Rome and one of the main protagonists of the growing phenomenon joining banks and companies during that time. Therefore, this work of mine does not only focus on the descending parable the Banca Tiberina experienced (something well known in economic historiography, especially when examining the end of the century crisis) but rather more on the whole three previous decades, from the beginning to the expansion phase.Therefore, a composite framework emerges, striving to keep the features of the political, social and economic features of Italy with those events being only apparently local and between these and the evolution of the banking system after the Italian Unification.

The COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons on building more equal and sustainable societies

AbstractThis discussion paper by a group of scholars across the fields of health, economics and labour relations argues that COVID-19 is an unprecedented humanitarian crisis from which there can be no return to the ‘old normal’. The pandemic’s disastrous worldwide health impacts have been exacerbated by, and have compounded, the unsustainability of economic globalisation based on the neoliberal dismantling of state capabilities in favour of markets. Flow-on economic impacts have simultaneously created major supply and demand disruptions, and highlighted the growing within-country inequalities and precarity generated by neoliberal regimes of labour market regulation. Taking an Australian and international perspective, we examine these economic and labour market impacts, paying particular attention to differential impacts on First Nations people, developing countries, women, immigrants and young people. Evaluating policy responses in a political climate of national and international leadership very different from those in which major twentieth century crises were addressed, we argue the need for a national and international conversation to develop a new pathway out of crisis.

Генезис идеи общественного прогресса в историко-философской мысли

Development and social changes are realized in the culture and fixed by the public consciousness, beginning with the ancient civilizations. The concept of progress is viewed through the prism of the history of philosophy. Attention is focused on the creation of the first cyclical theories of the development of society by Plato and Aristotle, the spread of social change to various spheres of social structure. The perception of the idea of social progress as the flourishing and movement for a better future in the philosophical theories of the New time is shown reflecting political optimism and faith in the abilities and intelligence of human. We analyze the genesis of social progress during the 19th century, the belief in the continuous progressive development of humanity, human values, to the aid of which science and technology come. The weakening of people’s faith in absolute and endless progress is taking place against the background of the historical events of the 20th century, including wars, revolutions, environmental disasters and economic crises, resulting in the flowering of historical pessimism, disappointment and doubt in the progressive movement. Under the conditions of the modern civilizational crisis, the idea of progress is replaced by ideas about the regressive nature of social and societal changes. The evolutionary nature of philosophical concepts, the acquisition of the status of philosophy of not being an abstract theoretical concept, but a fundamentally important tool for understanding modern society and predicting historical and social perspectives, is given. The article provides the conclusion that the concepts of zero growth and restrained, gradual development are replacing the idea of progress and regress, while positivist philosophy gives way to syncretic directions and a tolerant attitude towards the world as a whole.

Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018

With recourse to archival, printed primary, and secondary sources, this paper reconstructs global real interest rates on an annual basis going back to the 14th century, covering 78% of advanced economy GDP over time. I show that across successive monetary and fiscal regimes, and a variety of asset classes, real interest rates have not been ‘stable’, and that since the major monetary upheavals of the late middle ages, a trend decline between 0.6–1.6 basis points per annum has prevailed. A gradual increase in real negative-yielding rates in advanced economies over the same horizon is identified, despite important temporary reversals such as the 17th Century Crisis. Against their long-term context, currently depressedbsovereign real rates are in fact converging ‘back to historical trend’ — a trend that makes narratives about a ‘secular stagnation’ environment entirely misleading, and suggests that — irrespective of particular monetary and fiscal responses — real rates could soon enter permanently negative territory. I also posit that the return data here reflects a substantial share of ‘non-human wealth’ over time: the resulting R-G series derived from this data show a downward trend over the same timeframe: suggestions about the ‘virtual stability’ of capital returns, and the policy implications advanced by Piketty (2014) are in consequence equally unsubstantiated by the historical record.

III

III John S. Grabowski Mark S. Massa utilizes Thomas Kuhn's model of paradigm revolution and replacement in the history of modern science to offer a novel reading of modern Catholic natural law theory. The various paradigms of natural law do not betray linear, organic development as much as wholesale replacement of competing accounts as each sought [End Page 70] to explain better the anomalies of the reigning paradigm and the "data" of lived moral experience, the complexity of which always exceeds the ability of any one model to capture. Certainly, this Kuhnian lens yields insights into the inadequacy of what Massa calls the Neo-scholastic paradigm in the face of the twentieth century crisis of Catholic moral reasoning before and after Humanae Vitae. Yet one cannot help but wish that the landscape was surveyed more widely both historically and analytically. The use of Lonergan's account of "historical consciousness" to outline the overturning of the "classicism" of modern Catholic moral theology can have an ahistorical ring insofar as this language fails to acknowledge its own embeddedness in a historical tradition with its roots in Hegel, Vico, and others. It also tends to create an unfortunate binary in regard to method—either one is classicist or "historically conscious"—as if there were no other alternatives. Something like Alasdair MacIntyre's account of dialogue within and among rival historical traditions seems to offer a more sophisticated approach to this history without smoothing away Massa's sharp Kuhnian edges of disagreement. Another set of problems is posed by Massa's decision to focus on what he calls the "micro-tradition" of natural law. This can create the impression that natural law is a sufficient or stand-alone methodology for Christian moral reasoning and the language of virtue or scripture is an afterthought or add on. In regard to some of the thinkers he engages (e.g., the proportionalism of Richard McCormick or the new natural law of Germain Grisez), this might be fair. But certainly, Jean Porter gives significant weight to the language of virtue in her "robust realist" recovery of Thomas and Lisa Sowle Cahill spends a significant amount of time wrestling with the biblical witness in constructing her pragmatic, cross-culturally capable, feminist ethic. And beyond these figures, much of the work of post-conciliar renewal has been precisely in a deeper engagement with biblical theology and virtue theory. When it comes to the Angelic Doctor himself whom Massa sees as the font of the many paradigms he surveys, the problem is even more pronounced. It is worth considering that while the Summa Theologiae devotes a mere question to natural law (I–II, q. 94), the language of virtue (and opposing vices) occupies much more space within the prima secundae and virtually all of the secunda secundae. Further, Aquinas's entire account of virtue is situated within a deeply biblical account of creation and salvation history. The effort to construct an entire moral system on the basis of natural law is simply foreign to Thomas. In the end Massa's reading is interesting, but the lens too narrow. Catholic moral theology—medieval or modern—cannot be reduced to a [End Page 71] dispute over the most adequate accounts of natural law without significant distortion. John S. Grabowski The Catholic University of America Copyright © 2020 American Catholic Historical Society

Time and Eternity: The Vestal Virgins and the Crisis of the Third Century

References to time and eternity on third-century c.e. inscriptions commemorating the Vestal Virgins illustrate ways in which the priesthood was shaped by the structures of time and by expectations of persistent service. This traditional theme reflects contemporary emphasis on the continual performance of traditional religious rituals during an era when religious and political instability threatened eternal Rome. This paper discusses the heightened significance of the theme of time and eternity during the third century crisis focusing on the inscriptions honoring Flavia Publicia, who served in the mid-third century c.e., and Coelia Claudiana, who served in the late third century c.e.

Cambios y continuidades en el Levante (ca. 1300-900 a.n.e.): Una propuesta de síntesis sociopolítica

Entre 1300 y 900 a.n.e., las regiones de Siria y de Palestina experimentaron una serie de disrupciones y reacomodamientos, especialmente en la escena política. Más aún, la opinión historiográfica tradicionalmente aceptada indica que un cambio radical en las estructuras sociopolíticas ocurrió, marcando una transición de organizaciones políticas territoriales a organizaciones “nacionales” o étnicas. La discusión presentada en este trabajo apunta a revisar dicha opinión y a observar una permanencia fundamental, luego de la crisis del siglo XII, de las estructuras jerárquicas basadas en el parentesco y el patronazgo; estructuras sociopolíticas que proporcionaban las pautas básicas en la dinámica interna y externa de los reinos locales. Finalmente, se presenta una hipótesis al respecto de la relevancia de la adscripción y la subordinación políticas en la creación de identidades étnicas en el Levante durante la Edad del Hierro.

Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018

With recourse to archival, printed primary, and secondary sources, this paper reconstructs global real interest rates on an annual basis going back to the 14th century, covering 78% of advanced economy GDP over time. I show that across successive monetary and fiscal regimes, and a variety of asset classes, real interest rates have not been ‘stable’, and that since the major monetary upheavals of the late middle ages, a trend decline between 0.6–1.6 basis points per annum has prevailed. A gradual increase in real negative-yielding rates in advanced economies over the same horizon is identified, despite important temporary reversals such as the 17th Century Crisis. Against their long-term context, currently depressedbsovereign real rates are in fact converging ‘back to historical trend’ — a trend that makes narratives about a ‘secular stagnation’ environment entirely misleading, and suggests that — irrespective of particular monetary and fiscal responses — real rates could soon enter permanently negative territory. I also posit that the return data here reflects a substantial share of ‘non-human wealth’ over time: the resulting R-G series derived from this data show a downward trend over the same timeframe: suggestions about the ‘virtual stability’ of capital returns, and the policy implications advanced by Piketty (2014) are in consequence equally unsubstantiated by the historical record.

O 'médio' e o monstro: Hibridismo mínimo em 'Effi Briest', de Theodor Fontane

Mediante uma leitura de Effi Briest, de Theodor Fontane, o ensaio discute a possibilidade do hibridismo romanesco num estado de evidência mínima. Pressupondo que a afirmação do romance no século XVIII e suas crises no XX expuseram um número considerável de formas narrativas heterogêneas, lê-se por oposição o modelo realista histórico, entre esses dois momentos, como uma espécie de assentamento normativo que admite, entretanto, o sentido de uma antinorma para um gênero ele próprio não normativo. Assim, argumenta-se que Effi Briest, no desenvolvimento pleno da literatura realista, expõe, tanto no plano formal como no conteudístico, um controle exemplar do irrompimento monstruoso associado ao hibridismo e à heterogeneidade, para adquirir uma dimensão crítica nesse território do médio que, em parte, circunscreve o romance oitocentista em tempos de epopeia burguesa. ---DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22409/gragoata.2018n47a1145

The calm before the storm: explaining the institutionalization of Southern European party systems before the great recession

ABSTRACTThis article looks at the development of Southern European party systems between the moment of their independence (Malta and Cyprus) and democratisation (Portugal, Greece and Spain) and before the beginning of 2012, at the highest point of the global financial and economic crisis. In particular, it constitutes the first attempt since Morlino's path-breaking study, published 20 years ago, to try to understand why some Southern European party systems institutionalised. Departing from Casal Bértoa's [2012. Parties, regime and cleavages: Explaining party system institutionalization in East Central Europe. East European Politics, 28(4), 452–472] work on the sources of party system institutionalisation in East Central Europe, the current article examines, looking at four different periods (i.e. infancy, Cold War, twentieth century and economic crisis), the causes of institutionalisation in five Southern European party systems across time. The most important finding is that the sources explaining variation in the level of institutionalisation of young party systems are the same no matter the time (one, two, three decades) or space (post-communist or post-authoritarian Europe) taken into consideration. Thus, party systems characterised by electoral disproportionality, legislative concentration, cleavage cumulation and, to a lesser extent, parliamentarism as well as institutionalised political parties score significantly higher in terms of institutionalisation than more fractionalized, proportional, organisationally less rooted, semi-presidential, and socio-politically cross-cut party systems.

Una mirada a los Hospitales Neogranadinos de la Orden San Juan de Dios desde las visitas-reforma (1774-1777)

Para la segunda mitad del siglo XVIII se hizo evidente la crisis financiera, administrativa y asistencial de los hospitales de la América colonial. Como parte de las políticas de mejoramiento y control de los establecimientos financiados por la Corona española, se implementaron mecanismos de registro que tenían como propósito evaluar la situación por la que estaban atravesando estos centros asistenciales. El presente trabajo reúne la serie documental producida entre 1774 y 1777 por Fray Nicolás de la Concepción Delgado, visitador nombrado para los catorce hospitales de la Orden San Juan de Dios en la provincia de Nueva Granada, territorio que hoy ocupan las repúblicas de Colombia y Panamá. El objetivo principal del trabajo es brindar información sobre la situación que vivían estas instituciones a partir de las descripciones hechas en las visitas-reforma y la relevancia que adquiere para el gobierno peninsular la labor de registrar e inventariar los aspectos de la vida económica y social de los hospitales.

Capital, credit and the business cycle in Marx

The purpose of this paper is to identify two inconsistencies that are found in the third chapter of Marx's Das Kapital, dedicated to the study of credit. In the first one Marx states that the distinction between commercial and bank credit is only nominal, but he resorts to it in order to provide an explanation for the nineteenth century crisis in England, thus implying that the distinction was not only nominal, but real. The second inconsistency is noticed between Marx’s statement that real and money capital move in opposite directions during the trade cycle (with-out an explanation of how it is possible), and the second book of The Capital where Marx states that capital in the form of money and real capital must move in the same directions during the business cycle

Tożsamość żydowska na pograniczu kultur i narodów

Identity construction is one of the fundamental human needs. The process takes place in two areas simultaneously: internal, self-reflexive and external, associated with a sense of belonging to a particular group. The Jews, until the beginning of the nineteenth century constituted quite uniform society voluntarily separating themselves from other communities. As a result of emancipation and assimilation processes, various influences affect their identity. As a consequence the Jews faced two difficulties. The first one was the dilemma between own nation and territorial homeland while the other was the progressing deep internal divisions. At present Jewish identity is most of all national and ethnical identity strongly reinforced by historical memory and fight with anti-Semitism. After the period of the twentieth century crisis and in the light of the western world secularization it has become also cultural identity.Identity construction is one of the fundamental human needs. Theprocess takes place in two areas simultaneously: internal, self-reflexiveand external, associated with a sense of belonging to a particulargroup. The Jews, until the beginning of the nineteenth century constitutedquite uniform society voluntarily separating themselves fromother communities. As a result of emancipation and assimilation processes,various influences affect their identity. As a consequence theJews faced two difficulties. The first one was the dilemma betweenown nation and territorial homeland while the other was the progressingdeep internal divisions. At present Jewish identity is most of allnational and ethnical identity strongly reinforced by historical memoryand fight with anti-Semitism. After the period of the twentieth centurycrisis and in the light of the western world secularization it hasbecome also cultural identity.

A Tale of Two Marats: On the Abhorrence of Verticality, from Laissez-Faire to Neoliberalism

Abstract This essay traces a conceptual through-line from the twenty-first century crisis of democratic institutionality, explained as an effect of contemporary neoliberalism, back to the eighteenth-century discursive origins of free-market capitalism. On both ends of this temporal bridge, we find an emphasis on the radical horizontalization of political subjectivity and power against perceived hierarchies of institutional control. The discourse of laissez-faire—and sometime democratic—horizontalization turns on affect as an organizing principle (i.e., morality, sentiment, emotion) and locates control within the self as one entity among equals; verticality, in contrast, is linked to rationality and locates control in an asymmetrical relationship of superiority and inferiority that is decried as tyranny. I offer a comparatist interpretation of these concepts in aesthetic play in Jacques-Louis David's The Death of Marat (1793) alongside Vik Muniz's Marat/Tião as depicted in the documentary film Waste Land (2010) as evidence of the epistemological continuity between the laissez-faire and neoliberal political landscapes of the eighteenth and twenty-first centuries, respectively. The takeaways from this temporal through-line are the possibility that the twenty-first-century symptoms of institutional crisis are the ultimate epistemological expression of affectively inflected horizontal laissez-faire culture and that the reach of this epistemological paradigm extends far beyond political structure and into the deepest cultural imaginings of self and world.

Book Review: China and the 21st Century Crisis

Book Review: China and the 21^st Century Crisis

Ethics, Subjectivity, and Sociomaterial Assemblages: Two Important Directions and Methodological Tensions

Research that explores ethics can help educational communities engage twenty-first century crises and work toward ecologically and socially just forms of life. Integral to this research is an engagement with social theory, which helps educators imagine our shared worlds differently. In this paper I present two theoretical-methodological directions for educational research that centres ethics: Ethics and (human) subjectivity; and Ethics-in-assemblage. While both approaches might be seen as commensurable, they can also be seen as quite divergent. Using Michel Foucault’s later work on subjectivity and ethics, as well as recent work in Anthropology, I present a methodological direction for research into ethical subjectivity, how students come to see themselves as self-reflective ethical actors. Relevant here is the tension between ethics and politics, individual and collective modes of being, as both are crucial to both struggles for justice on a damaged planet. The second direction involves a sociomaterialist approach that employs Deleuze and Guattari’s concept of ‘assemblage’ as well as Karen Barad’s notion ‘entangled responsibility’ to show that ethics can also be seen to co-emerge with/in phenomena that exceed human relations. In short, exploring ethics through educational research means simultaneously examining ethics as subjectivity and ethics as co-emergent larger assemblages/phenomena.

“Human Speech is Naught”? The Authoritative Word in Robert Browning's Poetry

ABSTRACTIt has often been argued that Browning's poems, culminating in the form of the dramatic monologue, evince a rejection of the authoritative authorial voice and insist on the elusiveness of objective truth. Indeed, Browning repeatedly presents human speech as inherently flawed, distinct from the religious idea of the efficacious Word and intrinsically inferior to it. However, the Word, in its various senses, is of major importance to Browning's thought and work: he questions it, emulates it and appropriates it, and always in relation to the authority and truth value of poetic language. References to the Word in “An Epistle … of Karshish”, “A Death in the Desert”, The Ring and the Book and “Fust and his Friends” reveal Browning's appropriation of the authoritative Word within poetic language, with the effect of granting his poetry religious authority, juxtaposed with the nineteenth century crisis of biblical authority taking place in the background.

Fiscal crises in Barbados: comparing the early 1990s and the post-2008 crises

ABSTRACTThis paper discusses the fiscal crises experienced in Barbados in the early 1990s and then again following the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. In doing so, it presents the vulnerabilities faced by a Caribbean small island developing state (SIDS), seeking to navigate the Global Political Economy. Such small states face a complex mix of vulnerabilities to external occurrences which can be exacerbated by domestic efforts to manage social bargains and by the smallness of their economies. The case of Barbados brings out some of these complexities by presenting the fiscal crisis of 1991 that led the country into an IMF programme but that kept intact popular domestic expectations of a stable currency and of the maintenance of a respectable social safety net. During its twenty-first century crisis, Barbados has avoided going to the IMF (as of March 2017) but the debt situation has been precarious. The post 2008 crisis raises questions about whether an IMF programme should be pursued and also about whether, with or without IMF assistance, the popular expectations of maintaining the currency peg and of state funded social programmes can be continued. This paper addresses these issues while comparing the economic crises of the two periods.

An extreme value analysis of the last century crises across industries in the U.S. economy

The two large scale crises that hit the world economy in the last century, i.e. the Great Depression and the Great Recession, have similar outbreak and recovery patterns with respect to several macroeconomic variables. In particular, the largest depressions are likely to be accompanied by stock-market crashes. This study investigates the behavior of the U.S. stock market before, during and after deep downturns, focusing particularly on the tails of the return distribution. We develop two automatic procedures to identify multiple change-points in the tail of financial time series as well as in the co-crash and co-boom probabilities of different markets. We then apply our methodology to twelve time series representative of the sectors of the U.S. economy. We find that regime shifts in the lower tail of the distribution tend to co-occur before deep downturns. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the origin and systemic nature of large scale events to make policy interventions more timely and effective.

Can China Expand Without Limits?

Can China Expand Without Limits? Walter C. Clemens Jr. (bio) Edward N. Luttwak, The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2012). Minqi Li, China and the 21st Century Crisis (London: Pluto, 2016). Henry A. Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin, 2011; 2012 with a new afterword). Odd Arne Westad, Restless China: China and the World Since 1750 (New York: Basic Books, 2012). Does insight into world affairs benefit from looking at the evidence through the lens of an underlying assumption about the way things work? Or does it conduce to scholarly hubris? If we seek to make sense of the multitude of often contradictory facts about China, do we not need such a framework? Edward Luttwak’s framework approximates that of structural (neo)realism. For him the logic of strategy governs all state behavior, regardless of time, place, culture, or individual personalities. Luttwak concludes that China cannot continue to grow its economy and its military at a rapid rate. Nor can it behave aggressively without alienating other actors. Sooner or later, other actors will respond to what they see as a threat and unite to contain Chinese expansion. Minqi Li, on the other hand, proceeds from the world-system assumptions of Immanuel Wallerstein and concludes that China’s form of capitalism, like that of global capitalism, has no future and must give way eventually to a nondictatorial form of socialism. Henry A. Kissinger and Odd Arne Westad, unlike Luttwak and Li, do not proceed from any grand theory except an open-ended [End Page 175] realism. Taking a long view, however, Kissinger and Westad expect China gradually to return to its historic role as a great power, but each is attuned to the importance of individuals as well as structures and forces. Luttwak qualifies his thesis by conceding that the logic of strategy is not “self-executing.” Still, he says, strategic logic compels leaders of other countries to counter the aggrandizing actions that have characterized China’s behavior since 2011. For example, leaders of India and Japan have initiated a strategic dialogue. But while Luttwak expected a tough response by the Philippines to Chinese claims to the Nansha Islands (Kalayaan Island Group or Spratlys), Rodrigo Duterte, elected president in 2016, sidled up to Beijing and then insulted President Obama. Duterte opted to bandwagon with China rather than balance against it. He did so even after the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, responding to arguments entered by a previous Philippine government, ruled against China’s claims in the South China Sea. Except for Vietnam, nearly every case addressed by Luttwak challenges his deterministic thesis. Thus, he details how circumstances and human behaviors bolstered in 2009 and then deflated the pro-Chinese orientation of Ozawa Ichiro’s Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The Senkaku Islands incident in 2010 and the tsunami in 2011 reminded the Japanese of their need for US support. In April 2011, the DPJ leadership reaffirmed the centrality of Japan’s alliance with the United States and spoke of a complementary East Asian alliance that included Australia but not China. While Luttwak’s argument tends to overstate its deterministic implications, the author’s deep and wide factual knowledge lead him to rich, paradoxical conclusions. Thus, predicting China’s future is made more difficult because threats to stability “deemed probable are more likely to be successfully anticipated and energetically repressed, so that it is the unexpected, improbable threats that are more dangerous for dictatorships” (pp. 252–253) as in the impact on Tunisia of a single fruit seller’s self-immolation. Indeed, dictatorships are more apt to fall because of their few virtues than their man-made defects, as with the shah’s land reforms that antagonized Iran’s landowning clerics. [End Page 176] Considering Russia’s possible role in containing or joining China, Luttwak allows for free will over determinism. Thus, he argues that Russia’s orientation could be decisive if Moscow joined the United States and other actors in an economic blockade to counter Chinese aggression (for example, toward Taiwan). The Kremlin could join a blockade or align with China. The coup de grace against Luttwak’s theory...