Many studies have confirmed that fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses significant hazards to both human health and the ecological environment. Predicting future trends in PM2.5 concentrations is crucial for preventing air pollution hazards to human health. However, current machine learning-based forecasting models often focus on specific regions or sites, resulting in poor spatial generalization performance. To address this issue, this study utilizes ERA5 meteorological reanalysis data, MERRA2 assimilated aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and ground pollutant monitoring site data to construct a three-dimensional dataset. A novel hybrid deep neural network model (D_GAT) is proposed to simultaneously forecast the future 72h PM2.5 concentration trends for all sites in China. The D_GAT model combines the advantages of a graph attention network and a long short-term memory neural network, which can effectively aggregate spatial information between sites and simulate the spatial transport process and time series change characteristics of pollutant particles. Moreover, the proposed calculation method for attention scores quantified based on the actual pollutant propagation characteristics, combined with the upper atmosphere pollution transport process represented by AOD, can better express the pollution contributions of different neighboring sites to the predicted central site. Experimental results show that, compared to four other baseline models, the novel model achieves an average R2 of 0.732 for all sites in 72-h prediction, which is the highest among the five models, and the prediction accuracy of 72h is also in the forefront compared with the current similar research. The RMSE and MAE are 14.63 μg/m3 and 9.49 μg/m3, respectively, which are 2–4 μg/m3 lower than the other four baseline models, indicating that it has higher reliability and can achieve the goal of timely prediction and early warning. Overall, the new model is an effective tool for multiple sites generalization forecasting.
Read full abstract