Abstract As global power structures shift and energy security becomes increasingly politicized, tracing the cross-border transmission of uncertainty between economically and strategically linked nations has become crucial. This study investigates the dynamic interdependence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and energy-related uncertainty (EUI) between Germany and Russia over 2001–2023. We first examine bilateral linkages between the EPU and EUI indices using static and dynamic correlation measures. Standard and time-varying Granger causality tests reveal a persistent unidirectional influence from German to Russian EPU, while reverse causality remains weak. In the EUI domain, the causal structure is more volatile and bidirectional, with Russia influencing Germany before the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War, but Germany becoming the dominant driver afterward. To isolate the role of energy in the transmission of policy uncertainty, we orthogonalize each country's EPU with respect to its own EUI. The results show that much of the bilateral EPU correlation is energy-driven; however, Germany's EPU component, unrelated to energy, still significantly affects Russian EPU in the post-war period. These findings highlight the strategic importance of energy policy in shaping macroeconomic uncertainty and highlight the need for its explicit integration into international economic policymaking.

This study empirically investigates hierarchical endogeneity and shock transmission among three major international stock markets the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and Nikkei 225 from 2010 to 2023. Utilizing a Vector Autoregression framework and Granger causality test, the research examines the direction and strength of cross-market dependencies. The findings reveal a clear, asymmetric structure where the US market acts as the primary exogenous driver, with unidirectional causality flowing from the S&P 500 to both the FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225. A secondary channel of influence from the UK to Japan was also identified. Forecast error variance decomposition confirms the US market's dominance, explaining over 25% of the movements in the UK's financial market and 18.7% of Japan's forecast error variance, while remaining largely insulated from feedback. The findings of this study suggest that international markets are characterized by hierarchical endogeneity, challenging notions of symmetric interdependence and highlighting significant implications for financial stability frameworks making a noteworthy contribution.

The article analyzes the relationship between financial liberalization and the current account balance. It thus attempts to answer the question of how financial market deregulation affects international trade. There are two main arguments in favor of undertaking this research topic. The first concerns the search for answers to the question of the consequences of financial market deregulation for the real economy. The second concerns the identification of the determinants of permanent trade deficits. The impact of financial liberalization on a nation’s external balance is a crucial consideration, particularly given recent shifts in global trade policy. The article presents the theoretical channels through which financial liberalization affects trade. The empirical analysis covered 35 countries from 1973 to 2019, primarily OECD countries. As part of the research process, a financial liberalization index covering a wide range of instruments regulating its functioning was used to measure the phenomenon of financial liberalization. The study used comparative analysis and Granger causality analysis (Granger Dumitrescu-Hurlina causality test). An analysis of deregulation episodes in the studied countries revealed that financial liberalization was, on average, followed by an improvement in the current account balance. These findings were corroborated across various time intervals during the period of financial sector reform. Additionally, the research confirmed the presence of Granger causality between the level of financial liberalization and the current account balance. Utilizing the Granger-Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test, it was demonstrated that financial liberalization serves as a Granger cause for the current account balance. This relationship holds true regardless of the lag order applied in the analysis. Based on the analysis results, it can be concluded that financial liberalization may have a positive impact on the current account balance.

Persistent inflation in Nigeria has raised concerns about the effectiveness of conventional macroeconomic policy instruments, motivating renewed attention to the role of governance and public sector performance in shaping price dynamics. This study investigates the extent to which public sector efficiency and bureaucratic structure influence inflation outcomes in Nigeria, beyond the effects of standard macroeconomic variables. The objective is to empirically examine the relationship between inflation and public sector efficiency, institutional quality, government regime type, interest rates, real economic output, and the nominal exchange rate. The analysis focuses on Nigeria from 1981 to 2024, incorporating key macroeconomic variables by alternating democratic and military regimes, structural reforms, and recurrent inflationary experiences. Methodologically, the study adopts an econometric time-series framework, modelling inflation as a function of public sector efficiency, institutional quality, regime dummy variables, interest rates, real gross domestic product, and the nominal exchange rate. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach alongside Granger causality tests, the study assesses both short-run and long-run relationships between institutional factors and economic performance, standard diagnostic tests and robustness checks are employed to ensure the reliability of results. The findings reveal that inefficiencies in the public sector and weak institutional quality significantly exacerbate inflationary pressures, while rigid bureaucratic structures constrain effective policy transmission. Interest rates and exchange rate movements are also found to be important channels through which governance weaknesses translate into persistent inflation. Based on these findings, the study recommends strengthening public sector efficiency through institutional reforms, bureaucratic streamlining, and improved policy coordination alongside monetary measures. It concludes that sustainable inflation control in Nigeria requires an integrated macro-institutional approach that addresses governance and bureaucratic constraints in tandem with conventional economic policy tools.

This study analyzes relationships between ASEAN exports and key macroeconomic variables (imports, GDP current prices, GDP per capita, inflation, FDI) during 2013-2022. Few studies have discussed this relationship using a Vector Error Correction Model approach with comprehensive panel data from all ASEAN member states. Results reveal that exports exhibit high endogeneity with 98.21% of variability explained by internal dynamics. This research identifies a temporal dichotomy where imports positively affect exports in the short-term but negatively in the long-term. We observe an "Economic Development Paradox" where GDP growth reduces export orientation as domestic markets strengthen. Granger causality tests confirm the export-led growth hypothesis for ASEAN economies. FDI functions as a structural catalyst with positive long-term effects on export performance. This study contributes methodologically through analysis that combines long-term equilibrium relationships with short-term adjustment mechanisms. These findings have implications for regional trade policy, highlighting the need for strategic FDI enhancement, balanced development approaches, and strengthened value chain integration to sustain ASEAN's competitiveness, which has not yet formed a fully integrated economic community.

This paper analyzes the influence of financial development on economic growth in Türkiye, specifically focusing on the roles of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness (TRADE), and nominal exchange rate (ER) from 2005 to 2023. In this study, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (NARDL) approach was used to identify the effects of independent variables on GDP growth, and the Toda-Yamamato causality approach was used to determine the direction of the relationship between variables. In the long run, positive shocks to financial development result in GDP growth, while negative shocks cause significantly larger declines in GDP, highlighting the Turkish economy's vulnerability to negative developments. The analysis reveals that the impact of positive FDI developments on economic growth is insignificant for Türkiye. However, in the long run, the negative effects of FDI negatively impact economic growth. The findings indicate an urgent need for policies that mitigate the risks associated with financial downturns to promote sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, the Toda–Yamamoto causality test results indicate unidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and financial development, FDI, and trade openness, but no causal relationship with exchange rates, thereby demonstrating that the NARDL findings are robust to potential endogeneity and reverse causality.

The study aims to examine the relationship between private childcare services and mothers' labour force participation. To this end, data from the 2007-2023 period are analysed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and also Granger Causality methods. According to the findings, the number of students enrolled in private kindergartens and nurseries, institutions affiliated with the Ministry of Family and Social Services [MoFSS], and nurseries opened in businesses negatively affects mothers' labour force participation in the long term. However, in the short term, these factors have a positive effect on mothers' labour force participation. Furthermore, the analysis results show that COVID-19 reduced mothers' labour force participation rates in both the long and short term, but this effect is more pronounced in the short term. According to the Granger causality test results, the number of students enrolled in private kindergartens and nurseries, institutions affiliated with the MoFSS, and nurseries opened in businesses does not statistically significantly predict mothers' labour force participation. In other words, these childcare services do not play a causal role in mothers' participation in the labour market. Conversely, the rate of mothers' participation in the labour force affects enrolment in these institutions.

Background: Maritime transportation has rapidly growth handling more than 80% of International global trade and nearly one million ship calls annually in Indonesia. Considering Indonesia's vast archipelago, shipping is the backbone of its logistics and people mobility. However, it simultaneously degrades the environment quality in certain areas. This study aims to assess the causal dynamics between the frequency of ship call and Environmental Quality Index (EQI) in 25 major Indonesian ports. Methods: This research used time series data from 2014 - 2023 and applied the Granger Causality Test to investigate the predictive causal nexus between variables. Findings: The results indicate that the causal relationship between ship calls and the Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is not uniformly significant across provinces. Significant Granger causality appears only in several major ports, showing regional variation in environmental impact. In these areas, increased ship call frequency tends to precede changes in EQI, suggesting environmental pressure from maritime activity. However, the relationship varies by province due to differences in industrial structure and environmental governance. Evidence of reverse causality—from EQI to ship calls—is generally weak, indicating that environmental quality does not significantly influence maritime traffic. Conclusion: These results provide crucial empirical findings for a geographically targeted, non-uniform policy approach for environmental sustainability in the Indonesian maritime sector. Novelty/Originality of this article: This research may contribute to the first known attempt to analyze the predictive cause-and-effect relationship between Ship Call and the EQI at the provincial level in Indonesia using the Granger Causality method, offering a preliminary fundamental evidence base for policymakers to balance maritime economic activity with environmental protection.

This study examines how global uncertainty influences the financial dynamics of technology firms involved in quantum computing, a strategically significant but structurally fragile segment of emerging deep-tech markets. Using daily data from January 2015 to May 2025, the analysis integrates principal component decomposition, panel regression, Granger causality testing and volatility diagnostics to assess the transmission of market volatility and geopolitical risk. The findings show that market volatility, proxied by the VIX index, exerts a persistent and adverse influence on stock returns, confirming its role as a systemic risk factor. Geopolitical risk, measured through the ACT and THREAT sub-indices of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), also affects return behaviour, but through asymmetric and time-varying transmission mechanisms that emerge under heightened uncertainty and global strategic tension. The results further reveal heterogeneous vulnerability profiles across firms, indicating conditional risk spillovers rather than uniform market reactions. The study contributes new empirical evidence on the interplay between financial and geopolitical risk in advanced technology sectors and offers a replicable framework for uncertainty modelling in frontier markets.

Energy poverty remains a persistent challenge in many developing economies, constraining socioeconomic development and diminishing quality of life. This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness (TO) on energy poverty reduction in seven Latin American countries—Belize, Bolivia, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and Peru—over the period 1992–2024. Employing a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) framework, the analysis reveals that both FDI and trade openness significantly enhance electricity access, which serves as a key proxy for energy poverty. Specifically, a 1% increase in trade openness leads to a 0.083% improvement in electricity access, while FDI exerts a substantially stronger effect, increasing access by 2.325%. Economic growth also contributes to energy poverty alleviation, albeit with a more modest elasticity of 0.195%. Granger causality tests indicate bidirectional causal relationships between trade openness and energy poverty, as well as between energy poverty and FDI inflows, suggesting the presence of a virtuous cycle whereby improved energy access fosters deeper economic integration. Additional feedback effects are identified between trade openness and economic growth, and between FDI and economic growth. Moreover, trade openness is found to directly stimulate FDI inflows, while economic growth unidirectionally reduces energy poverty. The robustness of these findings is confirmed through FMOLS and DOLS estimations. Overall, the results highlight the critical role of globalization in alleviating energy poverty in Latin America. Policy implications emphasize the need to reduce trade barriers for renewable energy technologies, promote green-oriented FDI, and channel economic growth toward expanding rural electrification. Nonetheless, the study’s reliance on electricity access as a single proxy for energy poverty and its regional focus point to avenues for future research, including the use of multidimensional energy poverty indices and cross-regional comparative analyses. Keywords: Energy poverty; electricity access; trade openness; foreign direct investment; globalization; Latin America.

ABSTRACT This article examines the relationship between short-term rentals (STRs) and housing purchase and rental prices in tourist destinations. The article focuses on how this relationship varies by the typology of tourism development – specifically, vacation homes (hotel-based) versus second-home-based models (residential models). Using time series analysis and data from three destinations in the Region of Valencia (Spain), the study tests for Granger causality between STR activity and housing market dynamics. Findings reveal that the impact of STRs on housing prices differs across destinations, echoing patterns previously observed in other economic variables such as employment and rental markets.

Purpose This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic determinants that influence housing prices in Malaysia and Singapore, two Southeast Asian economies with distinct policy frameworks and housing market characteristics. The research seeks to identify both short-run and long-run dynamics that shape housing market behaviour and to provide comparative insights for policymakers and investors. Design/methodology/approach Quarterly time-series data from 2000 to 2024 are analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the error correction model (ECM). The Granger causality test is used to determine the direction of relationships among variables. Housing price index (HPI) serves as the dependent variable, while gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (CPI), interest rate, unemployment rate and money supply (M3) act as the explanatory variables. Findings The empirical results indicate that both economies exhibit long-run cointegration among housing prices and the selected macroeconomic variables. Money supply and GDP growth emerge as dominant long-run drivers in both countries, while inflation and interest rates show mixed short-run effects. Singapore demonstrates a stronger feedback mechanism between housing prices and macroeconomic indicators, whereas Malaysia’s housing market appears more sensitive to monetary expansion and inflationary pressures. Research limitations/implications The findings highlight the need for coherent macroeconomic and housing policies. For Malaysia, stabilising money supply growth and enhancing income dynamics are vital to moderating housing price escalation. In Singapore, maintaining policy coordination between monetary and housing supply instruments remains key to ensuring market stability. Originality/value This study offers one of the few comparative empirical analyses of housing price determinants in Malaysia and Singapore using ARDL and Granger causality. The study contributes to the limited Southeast Asian literature by integrating macroeconomic theory with real estate market evidence to guide housing policy and investment strategies.

This study aims to analyze the interactions among the minimum wage, unemployment rate, economic growth, and financial development in relation to inflation, as well as to identify causal relationship patterns among these variables. The research employs a quantitative approach using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis based on time-series data. Stationarity tests, optimal lag determination, stability tests, Granger causality tests, cointegration tests, and VECM estimation are conducted to examine the direction of relationships among variables and to estimate long-run effects in measuring the impact of each variable on inflation. The data utilized are secondary data obtained from official publications of relevant institutions and are analyzed using the E-Views statistical software. The results indicate that not all variables exhibit causal relationships. Inflation shows a one-way causal relationship with the unemployment rate, while financial development exhibits a one-way causal relationship with inflation. In addition, bidirectional causality is found between financial development and the minimum wage, as well as between financial development and economic growth. Long-run estimation results reveal that the minimum wage and unemployment rate have a positive and significant effect on inflation, whereas economic growth has a negative and significant effect on inflation. Financial development is also shown to have a positive effect on inflation. The findings underscore that inflation is influenced by a combination of labor market factors, macroeconomic conditions, and financial sector development; therefore, effective inflation control requires integrated and sustainable economic policies.

Purpose This study examined the relative roles of climate and economic factors in driving fish production across Indian states from 2000 to 2020, with a disaggregated focus on inland and marine systems. It also explored the multivariate causal relationships between fish production, CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, GDP and fish consumption. Design/methodology/approach To investigate the interactions between fish production, climatic and economic indicators, we used two novel techniques, namely a two-stage instrumental variable approach (2SIV) and a JKS causality test. Findings Results showed that rising temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions significantly reduce fish production, while rainfall, state GDP and per capita fish consumption enhance it. A disaggregated analysis revealed that all variables of interest had a considerable effect on marine fish production, comparable with the results for overall production; however, rainfall has a negligible effect on inland fish production. This discrepancy reflects system-specific dynamics: monsoonal rainfall has a direct impact on marine fisheries through nutrient enrichment and stock availability, whereas inland aquaculture is predominantly influenced by managed economic inputs rather than rainfall variability. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that marine production is more sensitive to climatic factors, whereas inland production is more elastic to economic variables. The JKS test revealed that incorporating climatic and economic indicators improves the accuracy of fish production predictions than relying solely on its past values. Research limitations/implications For the foreseeable future, these findings have significant policy ramifications. In addition to strengthening water resource management and encouraging climate-resilient practices, fisheries departments should allocate a larger percentage of their GDP to infrastructure development. Additional stimulation of production can be achieved by demand-side measures like nutrition campaigns and the inclusion of fish in public food programs. To maintain the sustainable growth of both marine and inland fisheries, a comprehensive policy framework that concurrently addresses climatic, economic and consumer aspects is necessary in light of the established multivariate causation. Finally, it is prudent for policymakers and other stakeholders to adopt climate-adaptive strategies for marine fisheries and direct investments and technological support towards inland aquaculture to align interventions with system-specific production drivers. Originality/value We contribute to the literature by integrating annual data for an empirical analysis across 32 Indian states and union territories. In addition, this study empirically disentangles the system-specific dynamics of Indian inland and marine fisheries. This aspect is often overlooked in existing literature because fisheries are often portrayed as a homogeneous industry. Moreover, the paper offers actionable insights for designing ecologically appropriate fisheries policies, while advancing academic debates on climate–economy–production relationships.

Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractThis study analyzes the causal relationships between economic growth, inflation, exports, and domestic credit to the private sector in Turkey using annual data covering the period from 1990 to 2024, obtained from the World Bank and the Turkish Statistical Institute. The empirical strategy is based on a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework combined with the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality approach, with the long-run interactions among the variables further examined through Johansen cointegration analysis. This integrated methodology allows for a comprehensive assessment of both short-run dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships in the Turkish macro-financial system. The empirical findings from the Toda–Yamamoto causality tests reveal statistically significant causal effects running from exports of goods and services, economic growth, and inflation to domestic credit to the private sector. Specifically, exports (EXGS), GDP growth (GDPG), and inflation (INF) each exert a meaningful influence on domestic private sector credit (DOCR), indicating that historical movements in these macroeconomic variables possess substantial explanatory and predictive power for credit dynamics. These results underscore the importance of real economic activity, external trade performance, and price stability in shaping the evolution of financial intermediation in Turkey. From a policy perspective, the results imply that maintaining export competitiveness, promoting stable and inclusive economic growth, and ensuring low and predictable inflation are essential for improving private sector credit access, reinforcing financial sector performance, and fostering sustainable economic development and macroeconomic stability in Turkey.

ABSTRACT This study aimed to explore the interactions between corporate quality and downside risk. We identified the bidirectional causality through Granger causality test, then employed lagged one period panel data regressions. The empirical results revealed that all downside risk measures exhibited consistent explanatory power in corporate quality and remained robust under different parameters settings and GMM tests. This study contributes to the literature by offering empirical evidence linking downside risk to multidimensional corporate quality in an emerging market context. Practical implications are drawn for investors, corporate managers, and policymakers aiming to enhance financial resilience, strengthen risk management, and improve market-based screening mechanisms.

This study examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in selected Asian economies (1970–2022) by comparing the influence of structural drivers with that of short-term fluctuations. Employing a comprehensive empirical framework—Fully Modified OLS ‎‎(FMOLS), Dynamic OLS (DOLS), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)—we distinguish long-run equilibrium relationships from ‎transient dynamics. The long-run estimates identify key structural drivers: economic growth exerts a strong positive effect, affirming the ‎market-size hypothesis, whereas inflation and trade openness exhibit significant negative effects, pointing to the deterrents of macroeconomic instability and intense competitive pressures from liberalization, respectively. Conversely, short-run analysis reveals limited transient effects. The VECM indicates no short-run convergence to equilibrium, and Granger causality tests show that only trade openness has a significant short-run causal impact on FDI. This dichotomy is further elucidated by time-varying impulse response functions, which confirm that ‎FDI reactions to macroeconomic shocks are asymmetric and period-specific. Notably, trade innovations generate the most substantial short-term gains, despite their negative long-term effects. Overall, the findings robustly demonstrate that FDI in the region is fundamentally anchored by long-term structural conditions—namely, stable prices, managed trade integration, and sustained economic expansion—while ‎being only marginally influenced by short-run fluctuations.

This study examines the evolution, heterogeneity, and short-term prospects of export performance in seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies—Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia—over the period 1995–2024. Using annual World Bank data, exports are modeled as a share of GDP to ensure cross-country comparability and to capture differences in trade dependence. The analysis combines descriptive and inferential statistics with Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests, non-parametric comparisons, Granger causality analysis, and country-specific ARIMA models to investigate export dynamics, the role of foreign direct investment (FDI), and future export trajectories. The results reveal a common long-term upward trend in export intensity across all countries, driven by European integration and structural transformation, but with pronounced cross-country differences in export dependence and volatility. Highly open economies such as Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic exhibit strong export performance alongside greater exposure to external shocks, while larger domestic markets such as Poland and Romania display lower export intensity and greater stabilization. Granger causality tests indicate that FDI contributes to export growth in several economies, often with multi-year lags, highlighting the importance of absorptive capacity and institutional quality in translating investment inflows into export competitiveness. ARIMA-based forecasts for 2025–2027 suggest continued export expansion and relative stabilization despite recent global disruptions. This study’s primary contribution lies in integrating comparative export analysis, causality testing, and short-term forecasting within a unified econometric framework, offering policy-relevant insights into export-led growth and economic convergence in post-transition European economies.

ABSTRACT Sustainable transportation has become a central concern for policymakers due to its implications for economic growth, poverty alleviation, and environmental sustainability. This study examines the relationships among poverty (POV), transportation-related CO₂ emissions (TCO₂), economic growth (EG), trade openness (TR), urbanization (URB), road infrastructure (RTI), and transport energy consumption (RTEC) in 14 MENA countries over the period 1983–2021. Using a panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) approach, we assess long-run relationships, complemented by panel causality tests. The results indicate positive long-run effects of all variables on EG, except POV. TCO₂ emissions are driven by EG, RTEC, RTI, URB, and TR, while EG, TCO₂, and RTI contribute to poverty reduction. Causality findings reveal complex bidirectional and unidirectional linkages among growth, poverty, emissions, and transport variables. Overall, the results confirm the need for integrated transport policies that simultaneously promote economic growth, environmental sustainability, and poverty reduction in the MENA region.

Abstract Background The psychological health of university teachers is closely related to their research effectiveness. Existing research has mostly focused on the static correlation between work stress and depression, but there is still a lack of empirical research on the dynamic interaction between research performance evaluation stress, a core source of stress, and depressive emotions. Big data and time series analysis provide methodological support for exploring this time-varying relationship. The research aims to reveal the dynamic correlation patterns and causal time series between the two through longitudinal tracking data, providing empirical evidence for constructing a scientific teacher support system. Methods Adopting a longitudinal tracking design, a monthly questionnaire survey was conducted to track 1520 university teachers for a period of 12 months, and a total of 18 240 valid longitudinal data were obtained. Evaluate monthly using the self-designed "Research Performance Assessment Stress Scale" and the Flow Survey Center Depression Scale (simplified version). The core analysis steps are as follows: (1) Conduct stationarity tests on the time series of each variable; (2) Construct a panel vector autoregressive model; (3) Perform Granger causality test; (4) Calculate the impulse response function and analyze the dynamic transmission path of the impact; (5) Perform variance decomposition to quantify the degree of mutual explanation. Results The Granger causality test showed a significant bidirectional causal relationship between research stress and depression (stress→ depression: F = 8.632, p<.001); Depression→ stress: F = 5.247, p<.01). Pulse response analysis shows that when research pressure is impacted by a standard unit, depressive emotions respond rapidly, rising by 0.32 units in the current period, reaching a peak of 0.41 in the second month, and the impact lasts for about 6 months. When depressive emotions are impacted, the response to research stress is relatively slow, reaching its peak at the third month (0.28), and the impact lasts for about 5 months. The variance decomposition results showed that in the 12th month of the prediction period, 31.7% of depressive mood fluctuations could be explained by research stress fluctuations, while 22.4% of research stress fluctuations could be explained by depressive mood fluctuations. This indicates that the two form a mutually reinforcing dynamic cycle, and stress has a stronger and faster driving effect on emotions. Discussion Through big data time series analysis, the study systematically revealed the bidirectional and time delayed dynamic interlocking relationship between the pressure of scientific research performance assessment and depression among university teachers. This discovery has important practical significance: it suggests that university administrators and policy makers should not adopt isolated static measures to intervene in teachers' mental health or alleviate research pressure, but should design systematic and sustained intervention plans to break this vicious cycle. Future research could incorporate more objective physiological or behavioral data and explore the moderating effects of protective factors such as individual resilience. In summary, the study provides key evidence for understanding and intervening in the occupational mental health of university teachers from a dynamic system perspective. Funding No. 2026-YYZD-12.