Catastrophic Failure Research Articles

Optimal resilience-based restoration of a system subject to recurrent dependent hazards

Many engineered systems are faced with multiple natural and manmade hazards during operation. Since such hazards may cause system disruptions (e.g., catastrophic failure and performance deterioration), timely and effective restoration needs to be conducted to minimize the negative impacts of the hazards. In practice, these hazards are recurrent and often interact dynamically with each other. This causes a major challenge in assessing the performance of the systems and determining the optimal restoration policy from a holistic perspective. In this paper, we model the availability and resilience of a system subject to recurrent and dependent hazards and develop the optimal restoration policies for decision makers with different risk preferences. Particularly, we first model the random occurrence times and severities of a set of hazards whose occurrence frequencies and severities are dynamically dependent. Next, we derive the analytical expressions for the system's availability metrics. Third, we investigate the optimal restoration policies for both risk-neutral (RN) and risk-averse (RA) decision makers by solving two related optimization problems. A case study on the pipelines in the Mid-Atlantic area of the U.S. is provided to illustrate the practical values of the proposed availability assessment and resilience optimization methods.

Spall size estimation for wind turbine pitch bearings: observation, signal processing method and experiments

It is essential to continuously monitor the spall size of wind turbine pitch bearings to prevent severe faults and catastrophic failure. In the field of spall size estimation for bearings, an essential step is to extract the entry and impact signals simultaneously. And this would become more difficult when it comes to the wind turbine pitch bearings due to the limited fault signals and heavy noise. In this paper, a coherent procedure is proposed to estimate the spall size for wind turbine pitch bearings. Firstly, the characteristics of entry and impact signals in actual wind turbine pitch bearings are observed to be low-frequency and high-frequency dominated, respectively. On the basis of characteristics analysis, a novel two-stage signal processing method called the wavelet augmented sparse dictionary, is proposed to extract the entry and impact signals, which combines the discrete wavelet transform and sparse representation technique. Finally, the spall size is calculated according to aforementioned extraction and geometric constraints. Results from real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Failure precursors recognition method for loading coal and rock using the fracture texture features of infrared thermal images

Early warning of the catastrophic failure of rocks is a challenging rock mechanics problem. This article proposed a failure precursor recognition method based on infrared thermal image texture features for coal and rock. Based on spatiotemporal background noise correction for infrared thermal images, a new thermal image parameter of loading coal and rock, Contrast Texture Feature Values (CTFV), is proposed to extract subtle changes in the thermal image caused by crack evolution based on the Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM). The cumulative Crack Texture Thermal Image (CTTI) is reconstructed using CTFV, which can accurately reflect the spatial evolution process of loading coal and rock cracks. The CTFV remains at 0 in the early stage of loading and gradually increases with stress increase at the unstable crack propagation stage, which can serve as a reference for precursor warning of coal and rock failure. For shale, sandstone, and limestone, the precursor of CTFV at grayscale levels of 7, 8, and 9, can be classified into high failure risk, medium failure risk, and low failure risk, respectively. For coal samples, the CTFV is only applicable for the critical warning of high failure risk when the grayscale level is 7. Then, an adaptive identification method for failure precursors based on the sliding window probability density estimation method is proposed. The research results can enhance the reliability of IR monitoring technology for rock failure and instability early warning and can provide support for the prevention and control of rock engineering and geological disasters.

New insights into the catastrophic slope failures at Sau Mau Ping: the role of antecedent rainfall pattern

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, which aggravate the threat to the safety of natural and man-made slopes. There is growing interest in the role of rainfall characteristics in these slope failures. Most of previous studies treated the rainfall individually or as cumulative value and used hypothetical rainfall temporal patterns with no association with actual physical failures. In this study, the two deadly landslides in Sau Mau Ping, Hong Kong, in June 1972 and August 1976, which caused 165 casualties, are revisited. An intriguing question that has long been overlooked is posed: why the slopes that withstood the 1972 rainfall failed in the 1976 rainfall, given that the rainfall intensity of the latter event was only half of the former? Based on an extensive review of the forensic reports and relevant studies on the failure events, numerical modeling is carried out by a combination of seepage analysis with stability analysis and unsaturated shear strength theory. Focus is placed on the geological and hydrological settings and the rainfall characteristics, particularly the temporal pattern of the antecedent and main rainfall, to look into the causes and mechanisms for these failures. Implications of the new findings for future research and practice are also highlighted.

Uncovering the dual role of dimensionless radius in buckling of spherical shells with random geometric imperfections

Localized deformation and randomly shaped imperfections are salient features of buckling-type instabilities in thin-walled load-bearing structures. However, it is generally agreed that their complex interactions in response to mechanical loading are not yet sufficiently understood, as evidenced by buckling-induced catastrophic failures which continue to today. This study investigates how the intimate coupling between localization mechanisms and geometric imperfections combine to determine the statistics of the pressure required to buckle (the illustrative example of) a hemispherical shell. The geometric imperfections, in the form of a surface, are defined by a random field generated over the nominally hemispherical shell geometry, and the probability distribution of the buckling pressure is computed via stochastic finite element analysis. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed for a wide range of the shell's radius to thickness ratio, as well as the correlation length of the spatial distribution of the imperfection. The results show that over this range, the buckling pressure is captured by the Weibull distribution. In addition, the analyses of the deformation patterns observed during the simulations provide insights into the effects of certain characteristic lengths on the local buckling that triggers global instability. In light of the simulation results, a probabilistic model is developed for the statistics of the buckling load that reveals how the dimensionless radius plays a dual role which remained hidden in previous deterministic analyses. The implications of the present model for reliability-based design of shell structures are discussed.

Numerical Investigation on the Capability of Modeling Approaches for Composite Cylinders under Low-Velocity Impact Loading

Composite pressure vessels can be exposed to extreme loadings, for instance, impact loading, during manufacturing, maintenance, or their service lifetime. These kinds of loadings may provoke both visible and invisible levels of damage, e.g., fiber breakage matrix cracks and delamination and eventually may lead to catastrophic failures. Thus, the quantification and evaluation of such damages are of great importance. Considering the cost of relevant full-scale experiments, a numerical model can be a powerful tool for such a kind of study. This paper aims to provide a numerical study to investigate the capability of different modeling methods to predict delamination in composite vessels. In this study, various numerical modeling aspects, such as element types (solid and shell elements) and material parameters (such as interface properties), were considered to investigate delamination in a composite pressure vessel under low-velocity impact loading. Specifically, solid elements were used to model each layer of the composite pressure vessel, while, in another model, shell elements with composite layup were considered. Compared with the available experimental data from low-velocity impact tests described in the literature, the capability of these two models to predict both mechanical responses and failure phenomena is shown.

Analytical Solution for the Steady Seepage Field of a Foundation Pit in an Anisotropic Layer

The soil piping and drift sand phenomenon is one of the catastrophic failure forms in foundation pit excavations in coastal buildings. Presently, there is a deficiency in the theoretical research regarding the seepage fields around foundation pits, primarily due to the complexity of theoretical solutions given the difficulty in accurately describing the distribution of the groundwater’s hydraulic head in a seepage field. This study proposes an explicit analytical solution for the steady-state seepage field surrounding a foundation pit under anisotropic conditions. A numerical model, constructed with FLAC3D 7.0 software, was utilized to validate the solution presented in this study. The effects of the foundation pit’s width, the distance between the retaining wall and the impervious layer, and anisotropic seepage conditions on the total head are studied through parameter research. The study shows that the flow behavior of a foundation pit is sensitive to parameters such as the anisotropy of the soil layer and the width of the foundation pit. Further, the study also analyzes the influence of the above parameters on the exit gradient and proposes a simplified algorithm for the exit hydraulic gradient at the base of a foundation pit, which can control the error within 5%. This method makes a certain contribution to improving seepage calculations for foundation pits and is applicable to the seepage problem of anisotropic soil layers.

Enhanced mechanical properties of the hybrid CFRP-SLA laminates through laminate modifications

Enhanced mechanical properties on the hybrid laminates consist of carbon fiber reinforced polymers-stereolithography (CFRP-SLA) reported in the present study. Hybrid laminates can significantly increase tensile strength more than 4,2 times higher (91.35 MPa), and flexural strength 10.7 times higher (156.81 MPa) compared to bare 3D printed samples. The improvement can be achieved due to the modification of the surface of the 3D printed model which has empty cavities filled with resin to form an interlocking mechanism and improved adhesion between laminates. The model can delay catastrophic failure mechanisms. The study could potentially be applied in structural and aerospace fields.

Chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking in Austenitic steels for SNF storage canisters - Recent understanding and advances in mitigation and repair

Chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) is a critical threat to stainless steel (SS) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and radioactive materials storage canisters currently in service worldwide. In the past decade, extensive research has been conducted to understand fundamental mechanisms of CISCC, as well as to develop effective repair and mitigation methods to prevent catastrophic failure of the SNF canisters from CISCC. This review article aims to: (1) summarize recent progress from fundamental studies of CISCC in SS, and (2) present state-of-the-art developments in CISCC mitigation and repair techniques that may be especially well-suited for SNF storage applications, including cold spray (CS), friction stir welding (FSW), friction surfacing (FS), laser shock peening (LSP), and ultrasonic nanocrystal surface modification (UNSM). Knowledge gaps in current understanding of CISCC and roadmaps for deployment of the repair techniques are also discussed.

Degradation Modelling of and Optimising the Timing of Replacements for Batch Vacuum Pans

Replacing a pan involves the expenditure of significant capital for a sugar mill. Replacing a pan too late may result in excessive downtime, maintenance costs, and risk of catastrophic failure. On the other hand, replacing a pan too early will lead to wasting residual life and an unnecessary allocation of capital funds that may have been spent better elsewhere in the mill. This paper reports on the development of a replacement policy for batch vacuum pan components based on a stochastic model of degradation. Degradation data, principally wall-thickness measurements, were collected from the vacuum pans of an Australian sugar factory and used to develop component degradation models. Unlike the conventional approach of using a line of best fit to identify the end of life of the pan, the methods adopted account for the uncertainties due to seasonal operating conditions and inherent uncertainty in the degradation model parameters. The quantification of the uncertainty in identifying the end of life of a vacuum pan has shown that there is significant risk of a pan failing earlier than the straight-line prediction. Employing this quantification of the risk, a component replacement plan was developed by optimising the replacement of each component individually and subsequently optimising the replacement plan for the entire pan. This strategy is demonstrated using a case study with and without parametric uncertainty to evaluate its impact on maintenance optimisation. Including parametric uncertainty leads to the determination of greater risk earlier, proposing the replacement of components earlier than when parameters are considered as ‘known’. It is, therefore, important to consider parametric uncertainty in the planning of pan component replacements to better manage risk.

High-throughput quantification of quasistatic, dynamic and spall strength of materials across 10 orders of strain rates

Abstract The response of metals and their microstructures under extreme dynamic conditions can be markedly different from that under quasistatic conditions. Traditionally, high strain rates and shock stresses are achieved using cumbersome and expensive methods such as the Kolsky bar or large spall experiments. These methods are low throughput and do not facilitate high-fidelity microstructure–property linkages. In this work, we combine two powerful small-scale testing methods, custom nanoindentation, and laser-driven microflyer (LDMF) shock, to measure the dynamic and spall strength of metals. The nanoindentation system is configured to test samples from quasistatic to dynamic strain-rate regimes. The LDMF shock system can test samples through impact loading, triggering spall failure. The model material used for testing is magnesium alloys, which are lightweight, possess high-specific strengths, and have historically been challenging to design and strengthen due to their mechanical anisotropy. We adopt two distinct microstructures, solutionized (no precipitates) and peak-aged (with precipitates) to demonstrate interesting upticks in strain-rate sensitivity and evolution of dynamic strength. At high shock-loading rates, we unravel an interesting paradigm where the spall strength vs. strain rate of these materials converges, but the failure mechanisms are markedly different. Peak aging, considered to be a standard method to strengthen metallic alloys, causes catastrophic failure, faring much worse than solutionized alloys. Our high-throughput testing framework not only quantifies strength but also teases out unexplored failure mechanisms at extreme strain rates, providing valuable insights for the rapid design and improvement of materials for extreme environments.

A Detection Method for Slight Inter-Turn Short-Circuit Fault in Dry-Type Air-Core Shunt Reactors

Dry-type air-core shunt reactors are integral components in power transmission and distribution networks, designed to control reactive power and enhance system stability. However, inter-turn short-circuit faults (ISCFs) are common occurrences in shunt reactors, which are caused by various factors, including manufacturing defects, insulation degradation, or operational stresses. At the early stage of the ISCFs, the current does not reach a sufficient level to activate the protective equipment. These faults may lead to serious consequences, such as overheating, insulation breakdown, and even catastrophic failures, posing risks to the entire power system. Therefore, developing an effective and reliable detection method for ISCFs at the early stage is paramount. In this paper, a new method named the fault detection factor (FDF) based on equivalent resistance is presented to detect the slight ISCFs in dry-type air-core shunt reactors considering insulation resistance. In addition, the effect of noise signal existence in the monitoring process is taken into account. A moving average filter is adopted to guarantee both the sensitivity and the reliability of the proposed method. Ultimately, the simulation results of the FDF under different conditions are presented, which show the effectiveness and potential of the proposed method in observing and monitoring slight ISCFs.

Field Validation of a Universally Applicable Condition-Based Maintenance System for Mud Pumps

Summary Although mud pumps are considered to be critical rig equipment, their health monitoring currently still relies on infrequent human observation and monitoring. This approach often fails to detect pump damage at an early stage, resulting in nonproductive time (NPT) and increased well construction costs when initial damage progresses and pumps go down unexpectedly and catastrophically. Automated approaches to condition-based maintenance (CBM) of mud pumps to date have failed due to the lack of a generalized solution applicable to any pump type and/or operating conditions. This paper presents a field-validated universally applicable solution to mud pump CBM. The system uses a sensor package that includes acoustic emission sensors and accelerometers in combination with anomaly detection deep learning data analysis to pinpoint any abnormal behavior of the pump and its components. The deep learning models are trained with undamaged normal state data only, and a damage score characterizing the extent of damage to the mud pump is calculated to identify the earliest signs of damage. The system can then generate alerts to notify the rig crew of the damage level of key mud pump components, prompting proactive maintenance actions. Field tests were conducted while drilling an unconventional shale well in west Texas, USA, and a geothermal well in Japan (i.e., two very different drilling operations) to verify the feasibility and general applicability of the developed pump CBM solution. Sensors were attached to pump modules, and data were collected and analyzed using the deep learning models during drilling operations. During the field tests, different hyperparameters and features were compared to select the most effective ones for identifying damage while at the same time delivering low false positive rates (i.e., false alarms during normal state pump operation). The system required only several hours of normal state data for training with no prior pump information. Moreover, it correctly identified the degradation of the pump, swabs, and valves and produced early alerts several hours (in the range of 0.5–17 hours) before actual pump maintenance action was taken by the rig crew. This generally applicable pump CBM system eliminates the environmental, health, and safety concerns that can occur during human-based observations of mud pump health and avoids unnecessary NPT associated with catastrophic pump failures. The final version of this system will be a fully self-contained magnetically attachable box containing sensors and a processor, generating simple indicators for recommending proactive pump maintenance tasks when needed.

Primitive Accumulation in the East Africa Groundnut Scheme

ABSTRACT This paper revisits the Groundnut Scheme, a postwar colonial development project in East Africa infamous for its catastrophic failure. It examines the plans made by British state managers and the Scheme’s planners at both the United Africa Company and the Overseas Food Corporation to transform African colonial subjects into stabilized wage-labourers. The paper seeks to understand this social transformation in the context of the contradictory nature of capitalist social relations. This is achieved by using Marx’s concept of primitive accumulation: the separation of the worker from their means of subsistence. The paper focuses on two aspects of this process. Firstly, the creation of remote villages for the Scheme’s workers, physically separating them from traditional support structures. Secondly, the creation of a new gendered division of labour that would have transformed the homelife of the Scheme’s workers.

INTEGRATION OF GRID SCALE BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS AND APPLICATION SCENARIOS

Integration of renewable energy sources (RESs) into the grid has profoundly gained a lot of attention in the energy domain, coupled with an ever-changing generation profile and dependency on weather conditions, RESs are commonly known to pose security of supply challenges and in case they are not monitored they can cause techno-economic losses and even lead to catastrophic failure of the electrical grids. However, their availability and negligible generation cost make them environmentally friendly when compared to conventional energy sources. For seamless connection of renewables to the grid network, battery energy storage system (BESS) has been suggested in literature, the technology has come to the fore recently, and has found application cases in the utility grid with enhanced functions to participate in both reserve and wholesale electricity markets such as day-ahead and intra-day markets. This technical brief presents various energy storage systems (ESSs) potentially used in large-scale grid networks, which are investigated, and their individual properties are compared, where necessary application areas with examples enabled by constituting material properties are outlined, in the same context their general advantages and disadvantages are given in reference to the specific application cases. In addition, the application of large-scale BESS is explained together with the integration solutions such as use of Virtual Power Plant (VPP) and microgrid.

Techniques for abductor reattachment in proximal femoral replacement for non-oncological reconstructions: a narrative review.

Proximal femoral replacement due to revision hip arthroplasty or catastrophic proximal femur fracture fixation failures with considerable proximal femur bone loss can lead to a substantial loss of function of the soft tissue around the hip and the abductor muscles in particular. Surgical techniques of gluteus medius repair and/or abductor mechanism reattachment/reconstruction are widely debated in the literature, but it is quite rarely dealt with in the context of megaprosthesis and femoral reconstruction, particularly in non-oncologic patients. The aim of this study is to present a narrative review of the literature on techniques for abductor reattachment in proximal femoral replacement for non-oncological reconstructions. MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched by two researchers independently from inception until February 1st, 2023 (923 for MEDLINE and 963 for Embase; Cochrane is a composite of multiple databases and thus does not report a standard inception date). Articles examining proximal femoral reconstruction with megaprosthesis or allograft prosthesis were included. Studies concerning cadaver and oncologic patients were excluded. If the researchers failed to find an agreement on whether to include a study, the senior researcher would make a final decision in such cases. Data were extracted and stored, and qualitative synthesis was performed. A total of 1,157 articles from MEDLINE, 11,187 articles from Embase, and 0 articles from Cochrane were identified. Of 12,344 articles, the structured screening process revealed 10 eligible trials. Four different types of abductor musculature reconstruction/reinsertion were identified. Multiple and complex revision hip arthroplasties as well as multiple surgical procedures for proximal femur fracture fixations failures may have a great impact on proximal femur bone stock condition and soft tissue preservation requiring the use of a proximal femur megaprosthesis. In such cases, the abductor mechanism reconstruction and/or reattachment is achievable with different techniques that can be resumed in four different groups: direct suture to the prosthesis, trochanteric sleeve osteotomy, muscle-to-muscle suture, and synthetic tube augmentation suture.

A Comprehensive Seismic Monitoring of the Pillar Threatening the World Cultural Heritage Site Chauvet‐Pont d'Arc Cave, Toward Rock Damage Assessment

AbstractFragile geological features must undergo frequent structural health assessments to prevent catastrophic failure events. The mechanical behavior of natural sites is largely guided by vibrations of the earth and environmental exposure, but damage is rarely assessed, except empirically. The Chauvet‐Pont d’Arc cave, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, represents a shining example of fragility that would benefit from monitoring. It is overhung by a rock column known as Abraham's pillar that extends out from the cliff like a natural tuning fork. For this study, we monitored dancing movements of this pillar for over 2 years to analyze its elastic response to weather conditions. Using ambient‐seismic‐noise‐based methods, we identified the pillar's first two natural resonance modes. Through extensive monitoring of the site, we observed the striking temporal evolution of these two resonance frequencies on hourly, daily, seasonal, and pluriannual scales in response to changes in air temperature and insolation. Based on thermo‐acousto‐elastic modeling with a simplified 3D geometric structure, we determined how thermally‐induced stress stiffening affects the rock material, by applying convective and radiative heat fluxes to the model. From the results obtained, we suggest a novel quantitative method based on daily observations that can estimate the level of damage within the rock material. Our work provides a foundation for distinguishing between reversible processes and damage for hazard studies in the frame of climate change. Such knowledge is crucial not only for the preservation of heritage sites but also for enhancing risk assessment protocols and informing conservation efforts worldwide.

Void nucleation and growth behavior of TIG welded AA2219 deformed at cryogenic temperatures

This work investigates the failure behaviour of tungsten inert gas (TIG) welded 2219 aluminum alloy butt welds deformed over a range of cryogenic temperatures relevant to liquid hydrogen/oxygen propellent storage tanks. A novel in situ tensile testing machine, able to deform samples at temperatures down to 83 K, was designed to be accommodated on synchrotron computed tomography beamlines. In this way we were able to observe the accumulation of damage from void nucleation through growth to coalescence and ultimate failure by time-lapse X-ray microtomography during tensile straining at 293 K and 123 K. The results reveal that micro-void nucleation is triggered by θ (Al2Cu) precipitates and α-Al + θ (Al2Cu) eutectics in the form of particle fracture and interface decohesion. After nucleation, these freshly nucleated voids, along with pre-existing welding defects, extend with straining along the loading direction. This leads to void linkage, a very short void coalescence stage and subsequent catastrophic failure. The probability distribution function that describes the rate at which voids nucleate by interface decohesion considering the particle orientation was determined through the Eshelby inclusion theory. The evolution of void aspect ratio and void growth were modelled using the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman model and Le Roy model, respectively. This suggests that pre-existing defects grow faster, but that the numerous closely spaced nucleated voids play a significant role in failure.

Ultra-low cycle fatigue test study of bolted spherical joints in steel grid structures

During a catastrophic earthquake, bending and failure were exhibited in the bolted spherical joints, and these phenomena have obvious ultra-low cycle fatigue (ULCF) failure characteristics. To study the failure characteristics, hysteresis behavior, stiffness degradation, and energy consumption of bolted spherical joints, the ULCF test of bolted spherical joints specimens was carried out. The experimental study showed that the high-strength bolts experienced an ULCF failure process of bending, crack initiation, crack propagation, and instantaneous failure, and the fatigue life of the specimens was less than 20 times. The pinch phenomenon in the hysteresis curve of the specimen was significant, indicating that its energy consumption was poor. The energy-damage model of the specimens under cyclic displacement was derived based on the cumulative energy consumption. A damage assessment method for the specimen was proposed based on the energy-damage model and angle change characteristics of the specimen. This method provides a reference for damage assessment and repair design of bolted spherical joint grid structures after an earthquake.

Elastic, antiflaming phenolic aerogels for advanced thermal protection at extreme environments

In practical applications, thermal protection demands materials with reliable structural stability under extreme conditions. Phenolic aerogels exhibit remarkable thermal protection capabilities; however, their inherent brittleness and porous structure make them susceptible to catastrophic failure when subjected to mechanical stresses or thermal oxidation. To address this, robust phenolic composite (PFR@SiO2) aerogels were synthesized through a three-step process involving sol-gel generation, ambient-pressure drying, and chemical vapor deposition. The resulting PFR@SiO2 aerogels display impressive mechanical properties, as well as a high degree of flame resistance. Furthermore, under fatigue stress/strain cycling tests or ultrahigh-temperature oxidation circumstance, such phenolic composite aerogels also exhibit exceptional structural stability. Overall, these combined properties position the PFR@SiO2 aerogels as a promising material system for robust thermal superinsulation under extreme conditions.