Carbon Mitigation Policies Research Articles

Investment in Renewables under Uncertainty: Fitting a Feed-in Scheme into ETS

We analyze incentives to invest in renewable energy technologies induced by the overlap of two types of policies: feed-in schemes and carbon mitigation instruments. We find that results differ markedly depending on the specific types of policies in place, reflecting different impacts of uncertainty. As a result, the recent reform to the EU-ETS system that has established the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), effective in 2019, requires to appropriately fine-tune the direct RES-E support schemes. We show that this may involve moving away from feed-in tariffs towards feed-in premia. Our results suggest that the schemes currently adopted in Germany and in Italy, broadly based on feed-in premia for large generators and on feed-in tariffs for the small ones, could well fit also the post-MSR EU carbon mitigation policy. To the contrary, other countries (e.g. France and the U.K.) may have to modify their support schemes as the MSR will become operational.

Forest carbon mitigation policy: A policy gap analysis for British Columbia

Land-based emissions are an important contributor to global climate change. Various jurisdictions worldwide have implemented forest carbon mitigation strategies and policies to reduce their GHG emissions or increase carbon sequestration. Yet the policy literature on forest carbon mitigation is limited, and no attempt has been made so far to systematically document a jurisdiction's existing forest carbon mitigation policies and policy gaps. This paper applies policy gap analysis to policies for GHG and forest management in the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, as a case study focusing on the challenges posed by existing policies and the opportunities for policy innovation to more effectively promote forest carbon mitigation. This policy gap analysis shows that while BC has an ambitious climate action regime for fossil fuel-based emissions, it has few policies explicitly targeting forests or the use of harvested wood products for carbon mitigation. As a result, forest carbon mitigation is an under-exploited opportunity for the province. Throughout history, forest management policies have evolved in response to changing social values, such as protection of fresh water, fish and wildlife, and biodiversity. As this case study of BC illustrates, it is time for jurisdictions to renew their forest policies to more effectively incorporate opportunities for carbon mitigation.

Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics.

Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km(2) of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

ChemInform Abstract: Carbon Cycle in Advanced Coal Chemical Engineering

AbstractReview: 359 refs.

Air pollution co-benefits of low carbon policies in road transport: a sub-national assessment for India

This letter assesses low carbon scenarios for India at the subnational level in the passenger road transport sector. We estimate the future passenger mobility demand and assess the impact of carbon mitigation policies using the Asia–Pacific Integrated Assessment/Enduse models. This letter focuses on the transitions of energy and emissions of passenger transport in India in alternate scenarios i.e. the business-as-usual scenario and a low carbon scenario that aligns to the 2 °C temperature stabilization target agreed under the global climate change negotiations. The modelling results show that passenger mobility demand will rise in all sub-national regions of India in the coming few decades. However, the volume and modal structure will vary across regions. Modelling assessment results show that aligning global low carbon policies with local policies has potential to deliver significant air quality co-benefits. This analysis provides insights into the comparative dynamics of environmental policymaking at sub-national levels.

Pursuing air pollutant co-benefits of CO 2 mitigation in China: A provincial leveled analysis

Abstract With fast economic development, industrialization and urbanization, China faces increasing pressures on carbon emission reduction, and especially on air pollutants (SO 2 , NOx, PM) reduction, particularly the notorious haze issue caused by air pollution in recent years. Pursuing co-benefits is an effective approach to simultaneously respond to both carbon and air pollutant problems. In this paper, the AIM/CGE (Asia–Pacific Integrated Assessment Model/Computational General Equilibrium) model and GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies)-China model are combined together to project future CO 2 and air pollutants emissions in China, as well as reduction costs and co-benefit effects. Considering implementation of carbon mitigation policy and air pollutant mitigation technologies, four scenarios (S1, S2, S3 and S4) are analyzed. Results indicate that by implementing both carbon and air pollutant mitigation (S4), CO 2 emission per GDP can be reduced by 41% by 2020, compared with the 2005 level, and SO 2 , NOx and PM2.5 emissions would change by a factor 0.8, 1.26 and 1.0 of the 2005 level, respectively in 2030. The real co-benefits of emission reductions (S2 minus S4) for SO 2 , NOx and PM2.5 are 2.4 Mt, 2.1 Mt and 0.3 Mt in 2020, and the corresponding cost reduction co-benefits are 4, 0.11, and 0.8 billion €, respectively. Provincial disparity analysis reveals that regions with higher co-benefits are those with higher GDP such as Guangdong, Shandong and Jiangsu, energy production bases such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, low coal quality provinces such as Sichuan (for SO 2 ), and industrial base provinces such as Liaoning. Cost-effectiveness is finally discussed for policy implications, which suggests that investment in less developed western regions is more cost-effective and easier in reducing CO 2 or air pollutant emissions than in developed eastern regions.

Carbon cycle in advanced coal chemical engineering.

This review summarizes how the carbon cycle occurs and how to reduce CO2 emissions in highly efficient carbon utilization from the most abundant carbon source, coal. Nowadays, more and more attention has been paid to CO2 emissions and its myriad of sources. Much research has been undertaken on fossil energy and renewable energy and current existing problems, challenges and opportunities in controlling and reducing CO2 emission with technologies of CO2 capture, utilization, and storage. The coal chemical industry is a crucial area in the (CO2 value chain) Carbon Cycle. The realization of clean and effective conversion of coal resources, improving the utilization and efficiency of resources, whilst reducing CO2 emissions is a key area for further development and investigation by the coal chemical industry. Under a weak carbon mitigation policy, the value and price of products from coal conversion are suggested in the carbon cycle.

Strategic responses to CO2 emission reduction targets drive shift in U.S. electric sector water use

The U.S. electric sector's reliance on water makes it vulnerable to climate variability and change. Here we investigate whether carbon mitigation policies would improve or exacerbate electric sector water reliance. We use EPAUS9r MARKAL to model changes in U.S. electric sector water withdrawal and consumption through 2055 resulting from energy system-wide CO2 emissions reduction targets of 10%, 25%, and 50%, as well as nine sensitivity analysis scenarios. CO2 reduction strategies accelerate the deployment of more water-efficient thermoelectric generation technologies and increase the use of renewables, nuclear, and carbon capture. The 50% CO2 reduction scenario also prompts electrification in end-use demand sectors, most notably transportation, increasing electricity demand 36% by 2055. In aggregate, CO2 reduction strategies decrease national electric sector water withdrawal in all scenarios (−31% to −46% by 2055), but have a varied impact on water consumption (−4% to +42% by 2055). These changes in electricity generation technology and the resulting change in water use would likely reduce electric sector vulnerability to droughts and heat waves.

Assessing the equity of carbon mitigation policies for transport in Scotland

Different social groups exhibit diverse travel behaviours and will thus experience very different outcomes in adapting to any changes to the transport system. This paper is concerned with making more transparent the equity implications of transport policies that are designed to change people's travel behaviours; explicitly those designed to mitigate the carbon impacts of the domestic transport sector. This is a relatively new area of transport policy delivery within the United Kingdom and elsewhere and, as yet, social equity considerations appear to be largely absent from the policy debate. This is in part due to a lack of suitable policy appraisal tools to identify their social consequences of such policies at the national and local level.To this end, we have developed an evaluation framework to test the social equity effects of the carbon mitigation policies for transport. The paper offers an example analysis of three policy measures that selected from Scotland's strategy for mitigating climate change in the transport sector. The case study has been chosen because the necessary strategy and policies are already well developed and so sufficient information is available to evaluate its likely behaviour changes outcomes. The paper concludes that there is a significant gap in both scientific and policy knowledge in this area and that a universal lack of data (i.e. not only in Scotland but internationally) is a major barrier to the robust analysis of the equity impacts of climate change mitigation measures. It also identifies some potential avenues for future research.

Assessing the Interactions among U.S. Climate Policy, Biomass Energy, and Agricultural Trade

Energy from biomass is potentially an important contributor to U.S. climate change mitigation efforts. However, large-scale implementation of bioenergy competes with other uses of land, including agriculture and forest production and terrestrial carbon storage in non-commercial lands. And with trade, bioenergy could mean greater reliance on imported energy. Based on EMF-24 policy specifications, this paper explores these dimensions of bioenergy’s role in U.S. climate policy and the relationship to alternative measures for ameliorating the trade and land use consequences. It shows how widespread use of biomass in the U.S. could lead to imports; and it highlights that the relative stringency of domestic and international carbon mitigation policy will heavily influence the amount of imports. It demonstrates that limiting biomass imports could alter the balance of trade in other agricultural products. Finally, it shows that increasing efforts to protect both U.S. and international forests could also affect the balance of trade in other agricultural products.

The value of a clear, long-term climate policy agenda: A case study of China’s power sector using a multi-region optimization model

This study uses China’s power sector as the target of a case study to assess the value of a timely outcome of the long-term climate policy agenda. It examines the question of how much extra cost will be incurred if hypothetical post-2020 carbon mitigation targets are not acknowledged and considered by the sector before 2020. This paper develops a multi-period multi-region optimization model for China’s power sector while developing and applying regional differences and analyzing connections. The results estimate that when compared to the 2010 level, the 2030 carbon intensity mitigation target of 30% would be a total of 84.9GCNY. The current local air pollution control targets, which are currently priorities in China’s power sector emission control, may contribute slightly to the decrease of carbon intensity in the power sector by about 15.5gCO2/kWh in 2020 and reduce the impact of a delayed post-2020 carbon mitigation target. The study suggests that clear and certain pre-consideration of long-term carbon mitigation policy should be taken as early as possible to avoid carbon lock-in investment. Control policies of LAP and CO2 mitigation could be combined in advance in the power sector in China in order to incentivize a cost-effective method of sustainable development.

3E (energy, environmental, and economy) evaluation and assessment to an innovative dual-gas polygeneration system

To resolve problems surrounding simultaneous CO2 conversion and COG (coke oven gas) utilization, a novel system combining a dual-gas of CGG (coal gasified gas) and COG with the technology of CO2 recycling into a single gasifier and reforming unit is proposed. 3E performance (energy, environmental, and economic) analysis showed that this novel system renders unnecessary the traditional water–gas shift process, and realizes the conversion and utilization of CH4 and CO2 that would otherwise be directly discharged into the air. Under a weak carbon mitigation policy, the economics of co-producing low-carbon fuels and electricity from a dual-gas of CGG and COG are promising. The “dual-gas” technology is a potentially viable option for clean coal and its efficient use in the co-production of low-carbon fuels and electricity in areas possessing COG, natural gas or other unconventional natural gas resources.

Policy implications of Monetized Leakage Risk from Geologic CO2 Storage Reservoirs

Abstract Geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as a part of the CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) process has a large potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but its deployment will require accurate assessment of both the possibility and cost of leakage. In this study, we took the Michigan sedimentary basin as an example to investigate the monetized risks associated with leakage, using the Risk Interference of Subsurface CO 2 Storage (RISCS) model. The monetized leakage risks derived from the RISCS model were then used to modify existing cost curves in GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). With the modified cost curves, the model provided policy-relevant results to help inform the potential role of CCS in future energy systems when carbon mitigation targets and incentives are in place. The results showed that leakage risks from geologic storage reservoirs can reduce the deployment of CCS as much as 60%. The extent of this impact is sensitive to the permeability of potential leakage pathways, the regulations governing leakage interferences with other subsurface activities, and the stringency of climate policies. With low well leakage permeability, the costs of leakage will be manageable, and under more stringent carbon mitigation policies such as a high carbon tax, higher leakage risks can be afforded and incorporating leakage risks will have a smaller impact on CCS deployment. Our results also show that if the leakage risks were accounted for by charging a fixed premium - similar to how the risk of nuclear waste disposal is treated - the projected scale of CCS deployment in the energy mix is less affected.

Energy, Climate and Environmental Policy in China: Introduction to the Special Double Issue

China's rampant environmental pollution problems and rising greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting climate change are undermining its long-term economic growth. China, from its own perspective cannot afford to and, from an international perspective, is not meant to continue on the conventional path of encouraging economic growth at the expense of the environment. Clearly, balancing China's energy needs to fuel its economic growth with the resulting potential impacts of climate change presents an enormous climate policy dilemma, not simply for China but for the entire world. Dealing with such a challenging issue not only needs warm hearts, but even more importantly cool heads. It is in this spirit that, in this special double issue of Energy and Environment, leading scholars from China and their collaborators tackle a select set of key issues that China is facing, including China's energy price issues, energy and carbon mitigation policy and their distributional aspects and regional dimensions, and energy statistics. The insights from their analyses not only contribute to deepening our understanding of the key issues in China's energy, climate and environmental policy debate, but also help to formulate mutually supportive policies to facilitate China's transition to a low-carbon economy.

The Cost of Lower Emissions: An Appraisal for Five Lac Economies Using CGE Models

Climate change mitigation policies have begun to be discussed in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries in recent years. However, the economic effects of such policies - i. e. , winners and losers - may vary significantly across countries. This paper attempts to shed light on some of these differences for a set of five LAC countries that may in the future adopt or be forced to accept some form of carbon mitigation policy. To this end a single-country CGE model is used to simulate a set of domestic carbon taxes that the countries could adopt or face. The results show that the costs of reducing 1 percent of emissions are in a range of 0. 18 to 0. 32 percent of GDP. Although in all instances the primary objective of reducing emissions is achieved, the sectors that win/lose vary, making this type of analysis relevant for countries to use before adopting a given policy. There is evidence, however, that those costs could become benefits when carbon taxes are compensated with reductions in general taxes.

The effects of alternative carbon mitigation policies on Japanese industries

To address the climate change issue, developed nations have considered introducing carbon pricing mechanisms in the form of a carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme (ETS). Despite the small number of programmes actually in operation, these mechanisms remain under active discussion in a number of countries, including Japan. Using an input–output model of the Japanese economy, this article analyses the effects of carbon pricing on Japan′s industrial sector. We also examine the impact of a rebate programme of the type proposed for energy-intensive trade-exposed (EITE) industries in U.S. legislation, the Waxman–Markey Bill (H.R. 2454), and in the European Union′s ETS. We find that a carbon pricing scheme would impose a disproportionate burden on a limited number of sectors – namely, pig iron, crude steel (converters), cement and other EITE industries. Out of 401 industries, 23 would be eligible for rebates according to the Waxman–Markey-type programme, whereas 122 industries would be eligible for rebates according to the E.U.-type programme, if adopted in Japan. Overall, despite the differences in coverage, we find that the Waxman–Markey and E.U. rebate programmes have roughly similar impacts in reducing the average burden on EITE industries.

GHG Mitigation Policies and Employment: A CGE Analysis with Wage Rigidity and Application to Canada

We use a general equilibrium framework to assess the impact of carbon mitigation policies in the presence of labour market rigidities. We analyze the impact of reducing CO2 emissions in a cap-and-trade system and the implications of different revenue-recycling options. Our results suggest that the policy has a negative impact on employment and welfare when permit revenues are recycled as lump-sum transfers to households. Using the carbon proceeds to reduce payroll tax achieves better outcomes, as the benefits outweigh the pure abatement cost. Moreover, using permit revenues to reduce payroll tax of low-skill workers alone represents the best option.

Non-nuclear, low-carbon, or both? The case of Taiwan

The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has renewed debates on the safety of nuclear power, possibly hurting the role of nuclear power in efforts to limit CO2 emissions. I develop a dynamic economy-wide model of Taiwan with a detailed set of technology options in the power sector to examine the implications of adopting different carbon and nuclear power policies on CO2 emissions and the economy. Without a carbon mitigation policy, limiting nuclear power has a small economic cost for Taiwan, but CO2 emissions may increase by around 4.5% by 2050 when nuclear is replaced by fossil-based generation. With a low-carbon target of a 50% reduction from year 2000 levels by 2050, the costs of cutting CO2 emissions are greatly reduced if both carbon sequestration and nuclear expansion were viable. This study finds that converting Taiwan's industrial structure into a less energy-intensive one is crucial to carry out the non-nuclear and low-carbon environment.

A multi-period optimization model for planning of China's power sector with consideration of carbon dioxide mitigation—The importance of continuous and stable carbon mitigation policy

Abstract A great challenge China's power sector faces is to mitigate its carbon emissions whilst satisfying the ever-increasing power demand. Optimal planning of the power sector with consideration of carbon mitigation for a long-term future remains a complex task, involving many technical alternatives and an infinite number of possible plants installations, retrofitting, and decommissioning over the planning horizon. Previously the authors built a multi-period optimization model for the planning of China's power sector during 2010–2050. Based on that model, this paper executed calculations on the optimal pathways of China's power sector with two typical decision-making modes, which are based on “full-information” and “limited-information” hypothesis, and analyzed the impacts on the optimal planning results by two typical types of carbon tax policies including a “continuous and stable” one and a “loose first and tight later” one. The results showed that making carbon tax policy for long-term future, and improving the continuity and stability in policy execution can effectively help reduce the accumulated total carbon emissions, and also the cost for carbon mitigation of the power sector. The conclusion of this study is of great significance for the policy makers to make carbon mitigation policies in China and other countries as well.

Carbon Mitigation Policies, Distributional Dilemmas and Social Policies

AbstractContemporary policies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will have distributive consequences and thus implications for the scope and remit of social policy. This paper studies current carbon mitigation policies and their distributive impacts. It considers a range of current and proposed social programmes to ameliorate these impacts, before proposing alternatives. This argument is pursued in two parts according to whether emissions are conceived and accounted within a production or a consumption framework. The first part works within the Kyoto policy framework, critiques the present suite of policies and suggests alternative policy scenarios that may better marry together the goals of carbon reduction and social equity. The second half justifies and operationalises a broader focus on all GHGs emitted by British consumers, whether directly or embodied in goods and services. It argues that to target these will require going beyond the current policy paradigm to develop more radical policies to modify preferences and behaviour, and to constrain total consumption demand. It then speculates on ways that new social policy programmes might combine the pursuit of these goals together with social equity.