Livestock systems represent a considerable environmental challenge. In response, various scientists, non-governmental organisations, and policy makers claim that Western populations in particular need to sharply reduce meat consumption. Given people's attachment to meat, many of these actors favour hard policy interventions based on a range of systemic financial and legal reforms that would go beyond mere nudging and the formulation of recommendations, including the top-down imposition of meat taxes and bans, as well as herd size reductions, which would lead to sharply higher prices. However, arguments in support of such policies tend to oversimplify the issue, ignoring regional variations, mitigation potential, and broader ecological and nutritional contexts. The focus of this article is on dietary greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a main target for environmental policymaking, with all livestock production in the West contributing 2.6% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions globally. From a consumption perspective, reductions in meat eating represent a saving of 1-6% on the total individual carbon (C) footprint of an average Westerner, depending on dietary restrictiveness. However, such estimates need to account for differences in nutritional value when comparing animal and plant-based foods, as well as to factor in co-product benefits, C sequestration in grazing systems, natural baselines in rewilding scenarios, constraints on afforestation, the potential risk of "carbon leakage", and distinct evaluation metrics for biogenic (enteric) methane versus fossil-fuel derived carbon dioxide. Carbon tunnel vision, hyperbolic narratives, and misguided policies risk compromising pathways to reasonable reform of existing meat industries, which are desirable and urgent.

China's rapid deployment of wind and solar power is pivotal to its decarbonization strategy, but the pronounced temporal and spatial variabilities of these resources create recurrent shortfalls that necessitate fossil backup and lead to additional CO2 emissions. We define this "carbon leakage" as the surplus emissions from dispatchable generation during wind-solar deficits, quantified using a high-resolution province-day framework for China across four climate-socioeconomic pathways to 2050. Results indicate substantial leakage across all scenarios, ranging from 100 to 140 MtCO2, equivalent to about 4% of China's 2020 power-sector emissions. Renewable power deficits remain concentrated in central and eastern load centers, whereas the associated carbon leakage is more spatially dispersed and extends into major electricity-exporting regions. The drivers of leakage also shift seasonally. Power load remains the dominant year-round driver, while the seasonal drivers of leakage shift from temperature-driven demand in winter and summer to wind and solar variability in spring and autumn. These results indicate that managing renewable shortfalls is essential not only for maintaining reliability but also for avoiding structurally embedded rebound emissions during deep power-sector decarbonization.

International unilateral climate policies and carbon leakage: Evidence from airline routes

Structural changes in the wheat supply chain and their environmental footprints through satellite yield forecasting

Redox oscillations in riparian zone stimulate carbon loss by enhancing microbial respiration.

This paper explores the macroeconomic and social implications of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for the Western Balkan countries. The study employs a partial equilibrium sectoral exposure model that estimates potential CBAM related costs in core industries steel, cement, and electricity by comparing projected carbon pricing burdens to sectoral revenues and employment levels. The analysis identifies areas of high vulnerability where CBAM-induced costs could undermine export competitiveness, threaten fiscal stability, and increase the risk of job displacement in carbon intensive sectors. Framed through the concept of development leakage, the paper argues that policies aimed at preventing carbon leakage within the EU may inadvertently constrain industrial modernization and economic convergence in its neighboring economies. The findings suggest that, without transitional financial and technical support, CBAM risks acting as a de facto trade barrier, potentially slowing the Western Balkans’ progress toward EU accession. To ensure an equitable transition, extended implementation timelines, coordinated carbon pricing mechanisms, and just transition measures integrated into EU-Western Balkan climate cooperation frameworks are needed.

The article examines metallurgy as one of the key sources of carbon externalities in global value chains. The aim of the study is to identify the economic nature of embedded emissions that arise in the steel production process and are transferred to other sectors of the economy through cross-sectoral linkages. The methodological basis is the approaches of global cross-sector analysis, the concept of embedded emissions, as well as the calculation of the author’s embedded emissions index (EEI) based on OECD TiVA and Greenhouse Gas Footprints data. The dual role of metallurgy is substantiated: on the one hand, it is a significant source of greenhouse gases, and on the other, it is the material basis of low-carbon transformation. It is established that the greatest impact of metallurgical emissions is observed in sectors closely integrated with metallurgical production. The results of the study can be used to improve climate policy, assess carbon leakage, and develop effective approaches to industrial decarbonization

Can carbon border adjustment mechanisms reduce carbon leakage? Revisiting the dual sourcing problem for a manufacturer

This research is motivated by the growing global attention toward the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism implemented by the European Union as an effort to address carbon leakage and maintain the competitiveness of domestic industries. Most previous studies have primarily focused on the economic and trade dimensions, while discussions on the policy’s impact on developing countries such as Indonesia remain limited. This study aims to analyze how the implementation of this policy affects Indonesia’s trade dynamics and export competitiveness, as well as to provide insights for the development of national carbon regulation aligned with global mechanisms. The research employs a juridical-normative approach with qualitative analysis through a literature study of relevant legislation, international policies, and legal doctrines. The findings indicate that this policy potentially increases export costs and reduces the competitiveness of Indonesian products in the European market. However, it also presents an opportunity to strengthen Indonesia’s national carbon economic value system through regulatory harmonization, enhanced transparency in emission reporting, and the adoption of sustainable low-carbon technologies.

When carrots meet sticks: Reverse carbon leakage driven by carbon regulation conflicts

Sub-system input-output analysis of international and inter-industry leakage of emissions induced by household consumption in the United States of America

Heavy energy subsidies in Iran, amounting to nearly 36% of GDP, have long driven excessive fossil‐fuel consumption and worsening air pollution. This study applies a province-level input-output model to assess energy subsidy reforms in Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran, using official government data. It derives sectoral CO₂ intensities and simulates both uniform and sector-specific energy price shocks to reflect the uneven distribution of existing subsidies. The results show that uniform energy price reforms across all sectors lead to nearly proportional CO₂ reductions while causing only modest declines in regional GDP. In contrast, steeper price increases in the agricultural sector result in limited additional abatement, due to low farm-gate tariffs, inelastic irrigation demand, and the reallocation of electricity during shortages. The electricity supply and related services sector emerge as the most influential leverage point, with its high emissions multiplier offering substantial decarbonisation potential across provinces. Notably, transport, storage, and postal services sector ranks as the third-largest emitter and exhibits considerable price responsiveness. These findings challenge the efficacy of irrigation-focused pricing for decarbonisation. We propose that combining price reforms with complementary measures such as modernising the electricity generation sector, improving irrigation efficiency, deploying solar pumps, and strengthening groundwater governance would yield more effective outcomes. • Subsidy reform cuts CO₂ by 15-62% with 2-7% GDP loss in Razavi Khorasan. • The “Electricity Supply and Related Services” sector is the top CO₂ emitter with a high emissions multiplier. • Targeting agriculture with higher price hikes yields minimal extra CO₂ cuts. • Combining price reforms with structural and efficiency investments is crucial.

Comparing carbon border adjustment mechanism certificates to EU allowances: price predictability and arbitrage opportunities

Quantifying the long-term impact of carbon border adjustment mechanism on Chinese steel industry

Asymmetric environmental regulation, interfuel substitution and carbon leakage

Abstract In Japan, the “Building Whole Life Carbon Assessment Tool (J-CAT / Japan Carbon Assessment Tool for Building Lifecycle)”, which calculates the Whole Life Carbon (WLC) of buildings primarily based on the original emission intensities derived from which a domestic inter-industrial relation database, named the Embodied Energy and Emission Intensity Data for Japan Using Input-Output Tables(3EID), was released in 2024.This report presents case studies utilizing J-CAT for specific uses. We evaluated six subjects, including a nearly Zero-Energy Building (nZEB), highlighting trends in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and discussed the input data settings related to Operational Carbon (OC) and refrigerant leakage, as well as their impacts. The results of the case studies indicated that, particularly for office buildings, the total emissions impact from OC due to energy consumption and embodied carbon associated with refrigerant leakage was significant. Therefore, it was found that efforts towards ZEB conversion through optimal architectural planning can contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions.

CARBON AT THE BORDER: THE EFFECT OF THE EU’S CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM ON INDIA’S EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS Chinju Kuruvilla, LLM- Corporate and Commercial Law Student, Christ University, Bangalore, Karnataka (India) Download Manuscript doi.org/10.70183/lijdlr.2026.v04.02 The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (henceforth referred to as CBAM), introduced as part of the European Green Deal is one The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (henceforth referred to as CBAM), introduced as part of the European Green Deal is one of the most ambitious attempts at combining trade and climate regulations. While the EU has implemented CBAM to prevent carbon leakage, its implication for developing economies like India has not only been legally contentious, but also of economic importance.

This paper presents a critical strategic analysis of international carbon pricing and its environmental, economic, and social impacts. It examines and reviews the impact of carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETS) on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, technological innovation, and structural change over the long term through systematic literature review and content analysis. This study also considers distributional equity, competitiveness, administrative capacity, and carbon leakage risk and concludes that a carbon price is not a pillar to be used to attain the level of decarburization that would be needed to meet international climate targets but a complementary pillar that should be combined with stronger regulatory, fiscal, and industrial policies. Global cooperation, better policy formulation, strategic revenue application, and emphasis on social equity are thus important in the effectiveness and legitimacy of carbon pricing at the international level.

Abstract Recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports emphasize that there is no ‘silver bullet’ to tackle the global climate crisis. In response, several Members of the World Trade Orgnization (WTO) are adopting policy instruments to internalize the environmental costs of greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, when adopting these policy tools, Members may face concerns about the risk of carbon leakage and the resulting loss of competitiveness. In May 2023, the European Union (EU) adopted Regulation 2023/956, establishing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Shortly thereafter, other WTO Members, including the USA, tabled proposals for national border carbon adjustment (BCA) mechanisms. While BCAs hold potential to advance climate mitigation and incentivize global decarbonization, they also pose complex legal and systemic challenges under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). If not designed and implemented with sensitivity to global disparities, BCAs may impose disproportionate burdens on developing and least-developed countries, potentially undermining their consistency with GATT non-discrimination obligations and the chapeau of Article XX. To ensure that BCAs are genuinely directed towards climate objectives, interpretations of Article XX chapeau must be informed by the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) principle, which must guide States’ climate mitigation efforts. Against this backdrop, this contribution critically examines and compares the core implementation challenges of the EU CBAM and four BCA proposals introduced in the 118th US Congress in 2023. With the EU CBAM nearing full implementation and growing momentum for BCAs in other jurisdictions, including the USA, addressing legal and distributive concerns is imperative to avoid adverse impacts on vulnerable economies. This is particularly pressing also in light of the potential emergence of a ‘BCA coalition’ among politically and economically aligned states. While BCAs can foster international cooperation and make meaningful contributions to climate change mitigation, their legitimacy depends on consistency with the CBDR-RC principle and compliance with the GATT.

The removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere via ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is proposed and discussed to mitigate climate change. We modeled the life cycles of four types of OAE technologies (ocean liming, accelerated weathering of limestone, mineral carbonation-ocean liming, and coastal enhanced weathering) in an Earth system model and investigated their environmental impacts. When the OAE is simulated to operate from the year 2030 to 2099 in 12 different coastal areas, the carbon emissions generated from the OAE's mining, processing, transportation, and dumping can significantly offset their carbon sequestration effects, causing specific OAE technologies unable to reduce atmospheric CO2. Among all four OAE technologies, coastal enhanced weathering exhibits the best overall carbon removal effectiveness, while the North Atlantic has the highest potential to store OAE-captured CO2. All OAE runs have an OAE-induced oceanic carbon leakage into the atmosphere, especially when clean energy is utilized to power the OAE activities, highlighting the necessity to consider the carbon removal additionality, permanency, and leakage performance for robust modeling assessment.