Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Research Articles

Recovering the true size of an Eocene hyperthermal from the marine sedimentary record

[1] Hyperthermals—episodes of abrupt global warming associated with the massive injection of carbon into the oceans and atmosphere—represent possible analogs for future climate change. However, uncertainties in their magnitude, rate, and duration arising as a result of mixing processes and changes in carbonate preservation as the sediment record is formed complicate their use in constraining climate sensitivity and the role of carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, we use cGENIE, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, to assess likely magnitude and rate of carbon input, taking a small hyperthermal event from the early-middle Eocene, C22nH3 (~49.2Ma) as a case study. We develop an iterative method combined with a sediment model simulating the formation and mixing of deep-sea sediments to converge on an estimate for the “true” magnitude of the carbon cycle perturbation in the atmosphere and ocean that drives the event. In inverting the � 0.95‰ benthic δ 13 Cexcursion recorded atOcean Drilling Program Site 1258, we obtain an estimate of at least � 1.45‰ for the atmospheric CO2 δ 13 C excursion that drove event C22nH3. We also assess controls on intersite variation of event shape in model sediments and find that sedimentation rate is the strongest determinant of modeled event size, with higher sedimentation rate sites recording the atmospheric signal more accurately. Our revised estimate for the size of C22nH3 implies a total carbon input almost two-thirds higher than would be deduced if the recorded δ 13 C excursion magnitude was taken at face value.

Warming Reduces Carbon Losses from Grassland Exposed to Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate – carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate – carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil.

Carbon cycle feedbacks during the Oligocene-Miocene transient glaciation

Ice sheet models suggest that once formed, the large, high- altitude East Antarctic Ice Sheet was relatively self-stabilizing, due to its cold upper surface. The ice sheet hysteresis problem results from an inability to reconcile this expectation with geological evidence for episodes of ice sheet retreat. A classic example of this problem is manifested in benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records across the Oligocene-Miocene boundary (ca. 23 Ma), which display a transient ~1‰ excursion to higher values. The inferred increase and subsequent decrease in ice volume has been linked to advance and retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet across the continental shelf. However, oxygen isotope records alone do not provide unambiguous records of temperature and ice volume, hindering assessment of the driving mechanism for these variations. Here we present new benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca, Li/Ca, and U/Ca records across the Oligocene- Miocene boundary from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 926 and 929. Our records demonstrate that Atlantic bottom-water temperatures varied cyclically, with the main cooling and warming steps followed by ice growth and decay respectively. We suggest that enhanced organic carbon burial acted as a positive feedback as climate cooled. Several lines of evidence suggest that the deglaciation was associated with an input of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system, culminating in a previously unidentified seafloor dissolution event. We suggest that one of the initial sources of carbon was organic matter oxidation in ocean sediments. This study demonstrates that carbon cycle feedbacks should be considered when evaluating the stability of ancient ice sheets.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Twenty-First-Century Compatible CO2 Emissions and Airborne Fraction Simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models under Four Representative Concentration Pathways

Abstract The carbon cycle is a crucial Earth system component affecting climate and atmospheric composition. The response of natural carbon uptake to CO2 and climate change will determine anthropogenic emissions compatible with a target CO2 pathway. For phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), four future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and used as scenarios by state-of-the-art climate models, enabling quantification of compatible carbon emissions for the four scenarios by complex, process-based models. Here, the authors present results from 15 such Earth system GCMs for future changes in land and ocean carbon storage and the implications for anthropogenic emissions. The results are consistent with the underlying scenarios but show substantial model spread. Uncertainty in land carbon uptake due to differences among models is comparable with the spread across scenarios. Model estimates of historical fossil-fuel emissions agree well with reconstructions, and future projections for representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP4.5 are consistent with the IAMs. For high-end scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), GCMs simulate smaller compatible emissions than the IAMs, indicating a larger climate–carbon cycle feedback in the GCMs in these scenarios. For the RCP2.6 mitigation scenario, an average reduction of 50% in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels is required but with very large model spread (14%–96%). The models also disagree on both the requirement for sustained negative emissions to achieve the RCP2.6 CO2 concentration and the success of this scenario to restrict global warming below 2°C. All models agree that the future airborne fraction depends strongly on the emissions profile with higher airborne fraction for higher emissions scenarios.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework 1 . Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4‐0:5 C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8‐1:0 C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22‐27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Abstract. We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

GCM characteristics explain the majority of uncertainty in projected 21st century terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance

Abstract. One of the largest sources of uncertainties in modelling of the future global climate is the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Studies have shown that it is likely that the extant land sink of carbon will weaken in a warming climate. Should this happen, a larger portion of the annual carbon dioxide emissions will remain in the atmosphere, and further increase global warming, which in turn may further weaken the land sink. We investigate the potential sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance to differences in future climate simulated by four general circulation models (GCMs) under three different CO2 concentration scenarios. We find that the response in simulated carbon balance is more influenced by GCMs than CO2 concentration scenarios. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reveals differences among GCMs in simulated SST variability leading to decreased tropical ecosystem productivity in two out of four GCMs. We extract parameters describing GCM characteristics by parameterizing a statistical emulator mimicking the carbon balance response simulated by a full dynamic ecosystem model. By sampling two GCM-specific parameters and global temperatures we create 60 new "artificial" GCMs and investigate the extent to which the GCM characteristics may explain the uncertainty in global carbon balance under future radiative forcing. Differences among GCMs in the representation of SST variability and ENSO and its effect on precipitation and temperature patterns explain the majority of the uncertainty in the future evolution of global terrestrial ecosystem carbon in our analysis. We suggest that the characterisation and evaluation of patterns and trends in simulated SST variability should be a priority for the further development of GCMs, in particular as vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle feedbacks are incorporated.

Climate-related changes in peatland carbon accumulation during the last millennium

Abstract. Peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon store and a persistent natural carbon sink during the Holocene, but there is considerable uncertainty over the fate of peatland carbon in a changing climate. It is generally assumed that higher temperatures will increase peat decay, causing a positive feedback to climate warming and contributing to the global positive carbon cycle feedback. Here we use a new extensive database of peat profiles across northern high latitudes to examine spatial and temporal patterns of carbon accumulation over the past millennium. Opposite to expectations, our results indicate a small negative carbon cycle feedback from past changes in the long-term accumulation rates of northern peatlands. Total carbon accumulated over the last 1000 yr is linearly related to contemporary growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation, suggesting that variability in net primary productivity is more important than decomposition in determining long-term carbon accumulation. Furthermore, northern peatland carbon sequestration rate declined over the climate transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA), probably because of lower LIA temperatures combined with increased cloudiness suppressing net primary productivity. Other factors including changing moisture status, peatland distribution, fire, nitrogen deposition, permafrost thaw and methane emissions will also influence future peatland carbon cycle feedbacks, but our data suggest that the carbon sequestration rate could increase over many areas of northern peatlands in a warmer future.

Probabilistic projections of transient climate change

This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65–80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than −1.7 W m−2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our observationally constrained PDF for the Transient Climate Response are 1.6, 2.0 and 2.4 °C respectively, compared with the 10–90 % range of 1.0–3.0 °C assessed by the IPCC.

Drought's legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die‐off and portends increased future risk

Forest mortality constitutes a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Recent drought-induced, widespread forest die-offs highlight that climate change could accelerate forest mortality with its diverse and potentially severe consequences for the global carbon cycle, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. How trees die during drought over multiple years remains largely unknown and precludes mechanistic modeling and prediction of forest die-off with climate change. Here, we examine the physiological basis of a recent multiyear widespread die-off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) across much of western North America. Using observations from both native trees while they are dying and a rainfall exclusion experiment on mature trees, we measure hydraulic performance over multiple seasons and years and assess pathways of accumulated hydraulic damage. We test whether accumulated hydraulic damage can predict the probability of tree survival over 2 years. We find that hydraulic damage persisted and increased in dying trees over multiple years and exhibited few signs of repair. This accumulated hydraulic deterioration is largely mediated by increased vulnerability to cavitation, a process known as cavitation fatigue. Furthermore, this hydraulic damage predicts the probability of interyear stem mortality. Contrary to the expectation that surviving trees have weathered severe drought, the hydraulic deterioration demonstrated here reveals that surviving regions of these forests are actually more vulnerable to future droughts due to accumulated xylem damage. As the most widespread tree species in North America, increasing vulnerability to drought in these forests has important ramifications for ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and ecosystem carbon balance. Our results provide a foundation for incorporating accumulated drought impacts into climate-vegetation models. Finally, our findings highlight the critical role of drought stress accumulation and repair of stress-induced damage for avoiding plant mortality, presenting a dynamic and contingent framework for drought impacts on forest ecosystems.

Remote sensing of canopy chemistry

One of the major uncertainties in predicting climate change comes from a full accounting of carbon-cycle feedbacks, which roughly double physical feedbacks (1, 2). Most of this uncertainty is a result of the many pathways and time scales at which ecosystems interact with the climate system and how these will respond to change (3). The relationship between leaf nitrogen and the carbon cycle is key to many ecosystem processes because photosynthesis provides the energy and carbon-cycle molecules for growth and reproduction (4⇓⇓–7) and decomposition for nutrient cycling (7, 8). Ecologists have long recognized that nitrogen was the most limited nutrient for plant growth (9, 10). Quantifying changes in canopy nitrogen content provides direct information about ecosystem functioning and a method to detect and monitor changes in response to climate forcing (9, 10); thus, it has been a long-term objective for airborne and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy (11⇓–13). Several papers have reported direct detection of canopy nitrogen from airborne imaging spectrometers (14⇓⇓–17). Ollinger (18) argues that selective pressure on plant competition for light, water, and nutrients should result in suites of biochemical and structural traits that integrate their functional strategies. Thus, structural traits affecting light scattering “over scales ranging from cells to canopies” (18) will be convergent with their biochemical traits. Knyazikhin et al. …

Characterizing Post-Drainage Succession in Thermokarst Lake Basins on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska with TerraSAR-X Backscatter and Landsat-based NDVI Data

Drained thermokarst lake basins accumulate significant amounts of soil organic carbon in the form of peat, which is of interest to understanding carbon cycling and climate change feedbacks associated with thermokarst in the Arctic. Remote sensing is a tool useful for understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of drained basins. In this study, we tested the application of high-resolution X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data of the German TerraSAR-X satellite from the 2009 growing season (July–September) for characterizing drained thermokarst lake basins of various age in the ice-rich permafrost region of the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. To enhance interpretation of patterns identified in X-band SAR for these basins, we also analyzed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from a Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper image acquired on July 2009 and compared both X-band SAR and NDVI data with observations of basin age. We found significant logarithmic relationships between (a) TerraSAR-X backscatter and basin age from 0 to 10,000 years, (b) Landat-5 TM NDVI and basin age from 0 to 10,000 years, and (c) TerraSAR-X backscatter and basin age from 50 to 10,000 years. NDVI was a better indicator of basin age over a period of 0–10,000 years. However, TerraSAR-X data performed much better for discriminating radiocarbon-dated basins (50–10,000 years old). No clear relationships were found for either backscatter or NDVI and basin age from 0 to 50 years. We attribute the decreasing trend of backscatter and NDVI with increasing basin age to post-drainage changes in the basin surface. Such changes include succession in vegetation, soils, hydrology, and renewed permafrost aggradation, ground ice accumulation and localized frost heave. Results of this study show the potential application of X-band SAR data in combination with NDVI data to map long-term succession dynamics of drained thermokarst lake basins.

Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress

The multitude of forest die-off events within the last decade strongly suggests that forest mortality is an emerging global phenomenon, constituting a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, climate-ecosystem interactions, and carbon-cycle feedbacks. This Review considers the societal and ecological consequences of dying forests.

Thickness of the chemical weathering zone and implications for erosional and climatic drivers of weathering and for carbon-cycle feedbacks

Quantitative understanding of variability in weathering fluxes on the modern Earth is limited because little is known about where the most important weathering reactions take place. This is partly because the locus of weathering is difficult to measure empirically. Inverse analysis of a parametric model presented here provides first-order constraints on variability in the thickness of the zone of active weathering. Results suggest that the effective thickness of the weathering zone varies relatively little across several orders of magnitude of denudation rate. At low to moderate denudation rates, reactions in soils may dominate weathering fluxes at the catchment scale, but the contribution from soil weathering decreases at higher denudation rates. Consequently, increased erosion leads to higher weathering fluxes, sustained by progressively greater contributions from weathering in bedrock. The effect of climate (temperature and runoff) on weathering fluxes is apparently weaker at low denudation rates than at high denudation rates, such that erosion, and potentially associated bedrock weathering, may be important for maintaining climate-stabilizing feedbacks in Earth’s carbon cycle.

Does atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> seasonality play an important role in governing the air-sea flux of CO<sub>2</sub>?

Abstract. The amplitude, phase, and form of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentrations varies on many time and space scales (Peters et al., 2007). Intra-annual CO2 variation is primarily driven by seasonal uptake and release of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere (Machta et al., 1977; Buchwitz et al., 2007), with a small (Cadule et al., 2010; Heimann et al., 1998), but potentially changing (Gorgues et al., 2010) contribution from the ocean. Variability in the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal drivers of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) will be induced by, amongst other factors, anthropogenic CO2 release (Keeling et al., 1996), land-use change (Zimov et al., 1999) and planetary orbital variability, and will lead to changes in CO2atm seasonality. Despite CO2atm seasonality being a dynamic and prominent feature of the Earth System, its potential to drive changes in the air-sea flux of CO2 has not previously (to the best of my knowledge) been explored. It is important that we investigate the impact of CO2atm seasonality change, and the potential for carbon-cycle feedbacks to operate through the modification of the CO2atm seasonal cycle, because the decision had been made to prescribe CO2atm concentrations (rather than emissions) within model simulations for the fifth IPCC climate assessment (Taylor et al., 2009). In this study I undertake ocean-model simulations within which different magnitude CO2atm seasonal cycles are prescribed. These simulations allow me to examine the effect of a change in CO2atm seasonal cycle magnitude on the air-sea CO2 flux. I then use an off-line model to isolate the drivers of the identified air-sea CO2 flux change, and propose mechanisms by which this change may come about. Three mechanisms are identified by which co-variability of the seasonal cycles in atmospheric CO2 concentration, and seasonality in sea-ice extent, wind-speed and ocean temperature, could potentially lead to changes in the air-sea flux of CO2 at mid-to-high latitudes. The sea-ice driven mechanism responds to an increase in CO2atm seasonality by pumping CO2 into the ocean, the wind-speed and solubility-driven mechanisms, by releasing CO2 from the ocean (in a relative sense). The relative importance of the mechanisms will be determined by, amongst other variables, the seasonal extent of sea-ice. To capture the described feedbacks within earth system models, CO2atm concentrations must be allowed to evolve freely, forced only by anthropogenic emissions rather than prescribed CO2atm concentrations; however, time-integrated ocean simulations imply that the cumulative net air-sea flux could be at most equivalent to a few ppm CO2atm. The findings presented here suggest that, at least under pre-industrial conditions, the prescription of CO2atm concentrations rather than emissions within simulations will have little impact on the marine anthropogenic CO2 sink.

CO2 evasion from the Greenland Ice Sheet: A new carbon-climate feedback

Decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) figures prominently in climate change predictions, but direct carbon cycle feedbacks are poorly constrained. Here, we show that melting of the GIS yields a previously unknown flux of CO2 to the atmosphere, and we use a reactive-transport model to examine if, how, and to what extent this flux will change as the ice sheet decays in a warmer world. Water emerges from beneath the Isunnguata and Russell Glaciers in West Greenland with CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) 3 - 10× supersaturated with respect to atmospheric equilibrium. During downstream transport in the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River, mineral weathering sequesters 75% of the excess CO2 as HCO3− – a carbon sink on human timescales – and the remaining 25% evades to the atmosphere. Scaled to all rivers draining the GIS, the evasion flux of 0.11±0.03 Tg C/year compares to fluxes reported for other rivers draining Precambrian shield crystalline rocks and having similar dissolved carbonate systematics. This flux is insufficient to influence modern-day atmospheric CO2 levels, and we find that higher meltwater discharge alone will cause only moderate future increases. However, more substantial increases could occur if meltwaters intersect basal ice known to have elevated pCO2 values. Worst-case model scenarios yield evasion fluxes of 100±20–170±40 Tg C/year by 2100. These atmospheric CO2 inputs surpass those for Arctic Lakes and would augment by up to ~25% those predicted for permafrost thaw. Our findings suggest that positive feedbacks linking greenhouse gas emissions, Arctic climate change, and global warming may be stronger than previously realized.

Predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate: Integrating the right tools for the job

Organic matter (OM) is a critical component of Earth's carbon cycle, with strong potential to provide positive feedbacks to a warmer climate via enhanced release of carbon dioxide. Investigations of the fate of OM typically focus on large reservoirs (e.g., soils) and on abundant, relatively long‐lived compounds (e.g., lignin, a compound derived from the cell walls of woody plants), and the products of its decay. Many of these investigations are challenged by issues of scale. The appropriate spatial scale of many carbon cycling questions requires infrastructure beyond the means of most projects and temporal scales often impossible to achieve in a human lifetime. We advocate coupling flux measurements, parameters that ecosystem scientists often quantify, with compositional characterization of sources, reservoirs, and sinks, data often generated by organic geochemists. Combined, the approaches of these disciplines offer powerful tools to understand OM dynamics.

High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes

Unknowns in future global warming are usually assumed to arise from uncertainties either in the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or in the sensitivity of the climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Characterizing the additional uncertainty in relating CO2 emissions to atmospheric concentrations has relied on either a small number of complex models with diversity in process representations, or simple models. To date, these models indicate that the relevant carbon cycle uncertainties are smaller than the uncertainties in physical climate feedbacks and emissions. Here, for a single emissions scenario, we use a full coupled climate–carbon cycle model and a systematic method to explore uncertainties in the land carbon cycle feedback. We find a plausible range of climate–carbon cycle feedbacks significantly larger than previously estimated. Indeed the range of CO2 concentrations arising from our single emissions scenario is greater than that previously estimated across the full range of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios with carbon cycle uncertainties ignored. The sensitivity of photosynthetic metabolism to temperature emerges as the most important uncertainty. This highlights an aspect of current land carbon modelling where there are open questions about the potential role of plant acclimation to increasing temperatures. There is an urgent need for better understanding of plant photosynthetic responses to high temperature, as these responses are shown here to be key contributors to the magnitude of future change.

Complex aspen forest carbon and root dynamics during drought

Drought-induced vegetation mortality has been documented on every vegetated continent in recent decades and constitutes a major uncertainty in climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle feedbacks. While recent research has focused on specific failure mechanisms during drought-induced forest die-off, a broader understanding of the physiology of trees under drought, especially changes in growth and carbon allocation, is needed for determining the sensitivity of forests to drought and interacting mechanisms during forest mortality. I present here multi-tissue and high-resolution temporal dynamics of tree carbon resources during moderate experimental and natural drought in trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests, a major forest type in western North America that recently experienced widespread drought-induced die-off. Drought led to substantial declines in inferred carbon uptake. Tree carbohydrate concentrations, however, largely increased in concert with substantial decreases in growth and severe declines in root biomass. These findings highlight that growth declines, especially in fine roots which are important to water uptake, and increased carbon allocation to root non-structural carbohydrates are key responses to drought in aspen and could play an important role in widespread die-off. They suggest multi-year consequences of drought and carbon-hydraulic interconnections. They underscore the need for a more integrated multi-tissue, multi-process, and multi-year perspective of climate-induced forest mortality.