Capital Stock Series Research Articles

A new global database on agriculture investment and capital stock

This paper introduces a new analytical database on aggregate physical investment flows and capital stock in agriculture, forestry and fishing for 189 countries and territories over the period 1995–2017. Long time series of the agricultural investment-to-value added ratio are employed to obtain agricultural investment flows. These latter are subsequently converted into capital stock series, by applying a variant of the perpetual inventory method. This article describes the database content and the data sources, the methodology used to deal with missing data in the investment-to-value added ratio as well as several measurement issues underlying its development. Lastly, it presents an overview of the main global and regional trends in agricultural gross fixed capital formation and capital stock, drawing some implications and directions for future research.

Efficiency‐adjusted public capital, capital grants, and growth

AbstractA debate on whether capital grants, and especially European Union (EU) funds, actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This article empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991–2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency‐adjusted public capital stock series, which reflects the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the article illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.

Total factor productivity growth in Central and Eastern Europe before, during and after the global financial crisis

This article presents growth accounting results for 11 EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe for the years 1996–2016. Its contributions include the estimation of new capital stock series and adjustment for the utilisation of capital stock. Before the crisis, growth in total factor productivity (TFP) was the main contributor to output growth in Slovenia, Hungary and Slovakia, while capital deepening was more important in the Czech Republic, Croatia and Poland. During the global financial crisis the contributions of TFP and capital growth differed markedly across the countries, reflecting the very diverse dynamics of the crisis. After the crisis the contribution of TFP growth has been negligible in all of the sample countries coinciding with generally weak output growth. The results are generally robust to changes in estimation methods and parametrisations, but some assumptions regarding the construction of the capital stock series are critical for the results.

Profit, Accumulation, and Crisis: Long-Term Movement of the Profit Rate in China, Japan, and the United States

China has emerged as the center of global capital accumulation. But, there have been few studies on the movement of the profit rate in the Chinese economy. This article measures China’s economy-wide profit rate and its contributing factors from 1980 to 2015. The measurement is based on the construction of China’s business sector capital stock series, estimation of China’s labor income share, and the profit share of economic output. The movement of China’s profit rate is compared with the long-term movement of the profit rate in the United States and Japan. A comparative analysis of the three largest economies in the world helps to illustrate important developments of the global capitalist economy over the late twentieth and the early twenty-first century. This article finds that China’s profit rate is approaching a level that historically was associated with major crises in the United States and Japan. The decline of the profit rate is likely to continue in the coming years.

Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital, Capital Grants, and Growth

Recent literature has explored the relationship between efficiency-adjusted public capital and economic growth. A debate on whether capital grants, and especially EU funds actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This paper empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991-2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series, constructed reflecting the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the paper illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.

Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital, Capital Grants, and Growth

Recent literature has explored the relationship between efficiency-adjusted public capital and economic growth. A debate on whether capital grants, and especially EU funds actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This paper empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991-2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series, constructed reflecting the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the paper illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

This study calculates the public transportation capital stock for Turkey for the 1980-2003 period. Then those series are used to estimate the effect of public transportation investments on gross domestic product. A similar attempt is made to formulate public capital stock series for various transportation subsystems and I use them to estimate the effect of subsystem investments on the value-added (so, economic growth) of the transportation sector. Estimations indicate a positive relationship between public transportation investments and gross domestic product. At the subsystem levels, it is estimated that railway, highway, maritime, airline and pipeline investments have various effects on the value-added of the transportation sector.

What output-capital ratio to adopt for macroeconomic calibrations?

Regarding the output-capital ratio in heterodox macroeconomic simulation studies, a surprisingly wide range of numerical values can be found. The paper discusses quarterly US data that are publicly available where, in order to capture depreciation, the construction of the capital stock by the perpetual inventory method relies on detailed estimates of its lifetime. Subsequently the paper builds up a capital stock series by alternatively having recourse to the statistics about capital consumption and furthermore determining an initial level by an assumption about the long-term growth of capital. This procedure leads to somewhat different results. In addition, the rates of depreciation and profit are studied that are implied by the two approaches. The paper closes with two numerical proposals for the steady state values of these variables and the output-capital ratio that could be readily employed for macrodynamic modelling, and that are quite different from many of the aforementioned examples.

GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade

There are different academic assessments of the principal forces behind Russia’s GDP growth. Studies that reconstruct capital stocks using gross fixed capital formation and the perpetual inventory method find that total factor productivity growth has been paramount to GDP growth. On the other hand, capital services datasets that have recently been made available find that capital developments have been instrumental in driving economic growth. We reconstruct a capital stock series for Russia for 1995–2013 and compare the results to two capital services time series using the Solow growth model. We also take into account terms of trade developments that have lent strong support to Russia’s economy. The terms of trade is shown to have been an important factor behind the development of gross fixed capital formation and thus GDP growth.

Trade liberalization and its economic impact on developing and least developed countries

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth of selected developing and least developed economies by augmenting standard production function. Design/methodology/approach – The panel fixed effect model is used to estimate impacts of macroeconomic variables on economic growth. Real GDP million US$ is taken as proxy for economic growth. The capital stock series for each cross-section is generated from gross fixed capital formation. The total trade to GDP is taken as proxy for trade liberalization. Findings – The result shows significant positive impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth, except trade liberalization index. The one unit increase in trade liberalization deteriorates economic growth, of developing countries by −280.86 million US$ and least developing by −3555.09 million US$. Research limitations/implications – The significant negative impact indicates the relatively greater share of import than exports. The developing nations should develop production side and adopt export promotion policies besides managing imports for the achievement of sustainable growth. Originality/value – This study uses augmented production function and constructed capital stock for individual countries. The total trade to GDP is taken as index for trade liberalization and was found to have significant negative impact.

Evidence of public capital spillovers and endogenous growth in Taiwan

This study reaffirms the empirical evidence of public capital spillovers and endogenous growth by using data for the period 1966Q3–2012Q3 in Taiwan. Avoiding the use of a 100% depreciation rate for generating public and private capital stock series that is applied in some related studies, this study estimates these series by using disaggregate data of various investment assets and applying their individual depreciation rates, as calculated by Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000). The results show that, first, (per capita) output, private capital stock, and public capital stock cointegrated in the sample period. Second, the contribution of private capital to output is 50% higher than that of public capital. Third, in the presence of significant and sizeable public capital spillover effects, growth in Taiwan is strictly endogenous. Finally, the dynamic model with a cointegration equation helps in studying some sensible short-run properties of the model and bi-directional effects among variables.

Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth

Summary This paper constructs an efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series and re-examines the public capital and growth relationship. The paper also examines the effects of four specific stages of the public investment process—appraisal, selection, implementation and evaluation—on capital accumulation and growth. The results show that public capital is a significant contributor to economic growth. The quality of public investment, as measured by variables capturing the adequacy of project selection and implementation, is statistically significant in explaining variations in economic growth, a result mainly driven by low-income countries.

India's Growth Experience and the Missing Transition

This paper examines the structure of growth acceleration of the postindependence Indian economy using national as well as state level output figures and capital stock series at the national level. By examining the manner in which growth accelerations at various national and sub-national disaggregated series are clustered in time, we argue that they began in the 1980s and caught momentum in the 1990s. In moving away from excessive dependence on agriculture, Indian economy seems to have missed the Kuznets transition to an increased share of the manufacturing sector. This has important implications for employment and rural poverty.

Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth

This paper constructs an efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series and re-examines the public capital and growth relationship for 52 developing countries. The results show that public capital is a significant contributor to economic growth. Although the estimated coefficient for the income share of public capital is larger in middle- than in low-income countries, the opposite is true for the marginal product of public capital. The quality of public investment, as measured by variables capturing the adequacy of project selection and implementation, are statistically significant in explaining variations in economic growth, a result mainly driven by low-income countries.

Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth

This paper constructs an efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series and re-examines the public capital and growth relationship for 52 developing countries. The results show that public capital is a significant contributor to economic growth. Although the estimated coefficient for the income share of public capital is larger in middle- than in low-income countries, the opposite is true for the marginal product of public capital. The quality of public investment, as measured by variables capturing the adequacy of project selection and implementation, are statistically significant in explaining variations in economic growth, a result mainly driven by low-income countries.

Growth in Russia's federal districts, 1994–2003

Russian macroeconomic growth in the transition era is analysed across federal districts using a neoclassical production function often found in studies of Soviet-era economic growth. An adjusted capital stock series for Russian regions is created and used in the aggregate production function for 1995–2003 to analyse growth across the 11 federal districts in Russia. Federal district output growth is found to be explained well by neoclassical growth theory, indicating that poorer regions may converge to richer regions, thereby strengthening the Russian Federation. Federal districts also have high capital/labour ratios, suggesting that expanded regional domestic and foreign investment across Russia in the future will enhance growth.

The Puzzle of the Replacement Ratio in the Context of Renewal Theory

The models Feldstein and Rothschild (1974) and Jorgenson (1974) adopted to highlight the nature of the replacement ratio were identical. Yet, even though the theorems they derived from them were complementary and reinforced each other, the authors reached diametrically opposite conclusions. Digging deeper into the controversy that erupted, it emerges that the staying power of the theorem, according to which replacement is a constant propor-tion of the outstanding capital stock, may be attributed to the following reasons. The discernible shift from realism to instrumentalism in the methodology of economics; Its operational advantages; The data that accumulated, thus facilitating research without having to compute capital stock series from scratch; The inertia of the status quo, which is sustained by the absence of a process to decide when a theorem is in conflict with experience and should be set aside, and lastly the lack of a model leading to a more useful theorem than the one un-der consideration. In this light it is concluded that the time has come for research efforts to be directed towards constructing and testing models in which the useful life of capital is deter-mined endogenously in the presence of embodied technological change.

Fonctions de production dans l’économie du Québec

The purpose of this paper is to study the characteristics of the production process in the Quebec economy. We devote particular attention to two features of the technology: the returns to scale and the substitution possibilities. Two forms of production functions, the Cobb-Douglas and an homothetic translog production function, are estimated for six branches of economic activity. These are: Agriculture; Fishing and Forestry; Mining; Quarying and Oil Wells; Manufacturing; Utilities; Services. Two main conclusions are derived from this work. First, there is strong evidence of constant returns to scale in all branches of the Quebec economy but services. Second, when comparing the Cobb-Douglas model with an homothetic translog model, the hypothesis that the true model is the Cobb-Douglas one cannot be rejected for five of our six sectors. Therefore, there is evidence that the elasticity of substitution is around one. Finally a byproduct of our work has been the construction of capital stock series for the Quebec economy (1960-73) disaggregated into 14 sectors, and two types of capital: construction and machinery and equipment.

Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison

In this paper, we present international comparisons of potential output growth among several economies—Canada, the euro area, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States—for the period 1991–2004, for which we construct consistent and homogenous capital stock series. The main estimates rely on a structural approach where output of the whole economy is described by a Cobb–Douglas function and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is estimated allowing for possible breaks in the deterministic trend. The results confirm that over the considered period the potential gross domestic product growth has been faster in the United States than in other studied countries, reflecting a combination of higher labour contribution and faster TFP growth. Overall, this paper might help to shed some light on cross-country differences in economic performance over the recent period.

Firm-level estimates of capital stock and productivity

Recent empirical work has highlighted the importance of firm-level studies in explaining productivity trends over time and across industries and countries. Using the microdata sets, made available within the Virtual Microdata Laboratory (VML) at the Office for National Studies (ONS), has made exploring the richness of differing firm characteristics and their impact on productivity possible. This article reviews the recent literature, and describes how a new firm-level capital stock series has been created. This will provide a gateway to future academic research and inform policy on productivity and firm performance.