This study examines the presence of significant positive abnormal returns in the technology and financial sectors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using an event study methodology with a 360 trading days, namely March 2, 2020 (the date of the announcement of the first case of COVID-19 in Indonesia, t=0), with a sample size of 35 shares on the IDX (15 technology, 20 finance) and 30 shares on the SET (12 technology, 18 finance), this study measures the market's response to the pandemic shock. A one-sample t-test reveals significant positive abnormal returns in both sectors and markets, with the Indonesian technology sector recording the highest abnormal return. Paired t-tests confirm significant differences between the technology and financial sectors within the same market; in contrast, independent t-tests show no significant differences in abnormal returns across markets for the same sector. These findings indicate that the technology sector demonstrates greater resilience and growth potential than the financial sector, with relatively comparable performance across these major ASEAN markets. This study contributes to the literature on semi-strong-form market efficiency and signaling theory by addressing gaps in the literature on emerging ASEAN markets during a prolonged crisis and by providing strategic implications for investors and regulators in managing risks and making post-pandemic investment decisions. Additionally, the study highlights the need for enhanced regional policy collaboration to strengthen capital market stability in the ASEAN region.

Regression-based multisource conditional domain adaptation for policy outcome prediction.

Behavioral effects of capital market regulations on investor (ir)rationality and market (in)efficiency: Evidence from MAD and TPD EU directives

ABSTRACT The French private equity ecosystem is characterised by the presence of Bpifrance, a state investment bank (SIB) which has structured and streamlined the sector since its creation in 2013. On the demand side, this research questions the influence of Bpifrance, as a direct public investor with sustainable venture capital objectives for environmental and social public good. France’s venture capital market is examined on the length of time between early-stage venture capital funding rounds and the ability of funded ventures, including those with deep tech and sustainable development goals (SDGs), to progress along the stages of the finance escalator. To answer this question, data was collected from Dealroom, a platform that provides investment information on a large number of startups in different countries over their lifecycle. An event history analysis is conducted on a sample of 3741 French ventures that raised their first seed funds between 1990 and 2023. The results confirm the impact of Bpifrance and the various public programmes that accompanied it on the structuring of the French venture capital ecosystem. On the other hand, the results question the ability of Bpifrance to support start-up companies with disruptive social and/or environmental innovations that require patient capital and significant risk-taking.

Amid global digital transformation and heterogeneous financial data explosion, traditional audits fail to effectively utilize unstructured information and identify dynamic fraud. This study proposed an intelligent audit risk assessment model integrating multimodal data fusion and explainable stacking ensemble learning. Using China Securities Index 300 companies' data (2018–2022), the study constructed dynamic financial indicators and text features and adopted random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, bidirectional long short-term memory with SHapley Additive exPlanations for interpretability. Experimental results showed the model's accuracy reached 95.3%, outperforming eXtreme Gradient Boosting (92.1%) and logistic regression (88.4%). It effectively detected hidden financial fraud, providing technical support for capital market supervision.

ABSTRACT We examine whether business complexity increases firms' exposure to negative environmental, social, and governance (ESG) outcomes, specifically ESG controversies, using a global panel of firms from 37 countries over the period 2002–2021. We further investigate the moderating roles of external monitoring by financial analysts; internal governance mechanisms, including board independence and workforce gender diversity; and international policy frameworks, with particular emphasis on the Paris Agreement as a regulatory tightening mechanism. Our results show that business complexity is strongly and positively associated with ESG controversies worldwide. Analyst scrutiny amplifies, rather than mitigates, this effect, indicating that external capital market monitoring does not effectively discipline ESG risk in complex firms. In contrast, stronger internal governance, reflected in greater board independence and a higher proportion of female employees, significantly attenuates the complexity controversy link. We also find that the positive effect of complexity on ESG controversies weakens in the post‐Paris Agreement period, consistent with heightened regulatory pressure and compliance expectations imposed on firms following the Agreement. Overall, the study provides novel cross‐country evidence on how organizational structure shapes negative ESG outcomes, integrating insights from complexity and agency theories with important implications for managers, policymakers, and investors.

The information quality embedded in financial reports disclosure by the Chinese listed companies is very important. However, the lack of the detecting mechanism on accounting information reliability leads not to increase the agency cost, but also to affect the development of the Chinese capital market. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to build an effective indicator to measure the reliability of accounting information, specialized in the earnings releases of the firm. Because the enterprises announce both the GAAP earnings and non-GAAP numeral information, this study applies the accounting conservatism to the mediator of my detecting model. My empirical results show that the indicator calculated by the absolute value of the average correlated coefficients among the GAAP diluted EPS, the non-GAAP numbers and the accounting conservatism is statistically significant. Instead, by the standardization of the Pearson correlated coefficient, my indicator holds the comparability in one firm among different period or in one period among different firms. At last, in robustness I divide my samples into the profitable and the loss firms, and find that the level of the information reliability detected from the profitable firms is significantly larger rather than that from the loss firms. My empirical results contribute to the non-GAAP literature dispute in monitoring earnings quality. Thus, this study could make contributions on the firm’s internal control, the security valuation from outside investors, and the monitoring costs paid by the regulators.

This study investigates the determinants of Sharia investment interest by integrating multidimensional risk tolerance and religiosity within ‎the Indonesian Islamic capital market context. Moving beyond conventional single-dimensional approaches, risk tolerance is decomposed ‎into risk propensity, risk attitude, risk capacity, and risk knowledge to provide a more comprehensive behavioral framework. Data were ‎collected from Muslim investors and analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM).‎ The findings indicate that only risk capacity and religiosity significantly influence Sharia investment interest. Religiosity emerges as the ‎strongest predictor, underscoring the central role of ethical commitment in Islamic financial decision-making. Risk capacity also demon-‎strates a significant positive effect, suggesting that objective financial resilience functions as a structural enabling factor in Sharia investment ‎participation. In contrast, risk propensity, risk attitude, and risk knowledge do not exhibit significant effects, implying that general psycho-‎logical risk preferences and financial literacy alone may be insufficient drivers within Sharia-constrained investment environments.‎ These results extend prior Islamic finance models by highlighting the differential roles of structural and ethical determinants over psycholog-‎ical risk dimensions. The study contributes theoretically by refining multidimensional risk tolerance theory in an Islamic context and offers ‎practical implications for regulators and Islamic fund managers in investor segmentation and market development strategies‎.

This study examines the dynamics of public debt in the Philippines using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Error ‎Correction Model (VECM) frameworks over the period 2005–2023. The empirical findings indicate that public debt dynamics are driven ‎predominantly by short-run macro-financial shocks rather than long-run structural factors. Although government expenditure exhibits a ‎positive coefficient in the long-run estimates, it is not statistically significant, suggesting that expenditure growth alone does not consistently ‎explain long-term debt accumulation. In contrast, the short-run results reveal strong and persistent effects of government expenditure across ‎multiple lag periods, highlighting its immediate role in shaping fiscal imbalances during crisis episodes and periods of elevated public ‎spending. Exchange rate depreciation also emerges as a significant short-run determinant, intensifying debt burdens through the valuation ‎effects of foreign-denominated liabilities. Inflation displays a nonlinear short-run impact, initially reducing the real value of debt but eventually exacerbating fiscal pressures when inflation persists. Meanwhile, stock market prices, government revenues, and interest rates do not ‎exert statistically significant effects in either the short or long run, reflecting the limited transmission of capital market signals and the gradual nature of structural revenue adjustments in the Philippine context. The policy implications underscore the importance of improving ex‎penditure efficiency, strengthening revenue mobilization, and reducing reliance on foreign-currency borrowing. The findings further high-‎light the need for credible inflation management and robust countercyclical fiscal buffers to mitigate the debt-creating effects of macroeconomic shocks. By identifying expenditure and exchange rate dynamics as key drivers of short-run debt fluctuations, this study contributes to ‎the literature on fiscal sustainability in emerging economies and offers evidence-based insights for Philippine policymakers seeking to balance growth objectives with debt stability‎.

This paper examines the influence of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) on ESG strategies among companies listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), employing an exploratory design that combines quantitative and qualitative analysis of five leading NSE issuers to assess how CSRD-shaped disclosure practices influence ESG risk management within the Kenyan capital markets context. While the findings reveal that ESG reporting has expanded following the 2021 NSE guidance, alignment with core CSRD features remains uneven, particularly with respect to double materiality assessments and independent assurance, underscoring the need for the Capital Markets Authority and the NSE to strengthen enforcement mechanisms and provide targeted capacity-building initiatives that bring Kenyan ESG reporting into closer alignment with evolving global standards.

The misalignment between the strong macro fundamentals of the Indonesian healthcare sector post-pandemic and the high volatility of the capital market. This study analyzes the influence of good corporate governance (measured by institutional ownership), profitability (measured by return on assets), and profit growth (measured by year-over-year analysis) on firm value using Tobin's Q. This quantitative research using the hypothetico-deductive method uses panel data from 28 companies during the 2022-2024 period, resulting in 84 samples, analyzed with Eviews13. The results indicate that, partially or simultaneously, the three independent variables do not significantly influence firm value, with an adjusted R^2 of only 0.47%, indicating that 99.53% of the variation in firm value is explained by factors outside the model. It is concluded that in this context of high volatility, factors such as corporate governance, profitability, and profit growth are not sufficient to explain firm value, so further research requires broader consideration of other factors and an extended period. However, findings in the Indonesian healthcare sector remain inconsistent, particularly in the post-pandemic period. Therefore, this study aims to examine the partial and simultaneous effects of good corporate governance, profitability, and profit growth on the value of healthcare sector companies on the IDX for the 2022-2024 period.

This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants of stock market performance in Nigeria, focusing on GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates, using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2024. The persistent volatility of Nigeria’s equity market and its apparent disconnection from real economic activity motivate this analysis. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the research captures both long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run dynamics, while incorporating threshold regression techniques to address nonlinear inflation effects. The logarithm of the All-Share Index serves as the primary proxy for stock market performance, with robustness checks utilising alternative measures. The findings indicate a stable long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables: GDP growth exerts a positive, statistically significant effect, affirming the pivotal role of real economic activity in long-term equity valuation. Inflation has a negative impact, with threshold analysis revealing a critical rate of approximately 15.2%, beyond which adverse effects intensify due to increased uncertainty and diminished real returns. Interest rates demonstrate a significant short-run negative effect, highlighting rapid market repricing in response to monetary policy shifts. Diagnostic and stability tests confirm the robustness of these results. Overall, the study underscores that while Nigeria’s stock market reflects long-run economic growth, its performance is highly susceptible to macroeconomic instability, emphasising the need for effective inflation control and coordinated macroeconomic policies for sustainable capital market development

Purpose We provide a systematic literature review of the determinants and consequences of income smoothing in an international context. First, we offer a theoretical discussion of income smoothing, which is motivated either by opportunistic or by informative reasons, followed by an examination of its measurement. Next, we review the determinants of income smoothing, categorizing them into financial reporting standards, firm characteristics, corporate governance, managerial characteristics and macro environment determinants. We then review the empirical literature on the consequences of income smoothing from the perspective of capital market and credit market consequences. We also provide some suggestions for future research. Design/methodology/approach We perform a systematic literature review using the Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review of Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines to examine archival studies investigating the determinants and consequences of income smoothing. Using a Boolean search strategy on Scopus and PRISMA selection criteria, we review 111 published archival research articles from 2004 to the first quarter of 2025. Findings The implementation of reporting standards reduces income smoothing practices. Firm characteristics have varied effects on income smoothing, while governance reforms and internal corporate governance mechanisms are generally found to constrain smoothing behavior. Our review further reveals that managerial characteristics are associated with income smoothing practices. Furthermore, exogenous shocks also shape managerial incentives to engage in income smoothing. The capital market consequences of income smoothing reveal that income smoothing improves earnings informativeness, lowers both equity and credit investors' perceived risk, but increases future stock price crash risk. The credit market effect shows that income smoothing lowers the cost of debt capital. Originality/value Although there remains a high-quality review on earnings quality (e.g. Dechow et al., 2010), we lack a thorough coverage of the evolution of income smoothing research for the last two decades. We fill that void in the literature, highlight some research gaps, draw researchers' attention to measurement problems associated with existing smoothing measures, and offer some suggestions for future research.

This study investigates the effectiveness of artificial intelligence in forecasting the market capitalization of publicly listed firms by integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) indicators with traditional financial variables. Grounded in Stakeholder Theory and Signaling Theory, the research evaluates whether ESG information enhances predictive performance beyond conventional financial metrics. The analysis employs a global panel dataset comprising more than 11,000 firm-year observations from approximately 1,000 companies across multiple industries and regions during 2015–2025. Several machine learning models, including Random Forest, CatBoost, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Extra Trees, and Linear Regression, have been developed using log-transformed financial variables and dimension-reduced ESG components derived through principal component analysis. Time series validation is applied to ensure temporal robustness. The findings indicate that tree-based ensemble models significantly outperform linear regression, with Random Forest explaining 84.53% of the variation in future market capitalization. Financial indicators, particularly revenue and profit margin, remain dominant predictors, while ESG factors contribute limited short-term incremental value. The results highlight the complementary role of ESG reporting in supporting long-term transparency and sustainable competitiveness.

The aim of the study was to compare the WIG, WIG-20, WIG-Banki, and WIG-Spożywczy indices listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2018-2023. The research period covered unprecedented events, i.e., the Covid-19 pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, which had a significant impact on the country’s socio-economic policy assumptions. The research shows that these events had a negative impact on the value of the indices studied. Of the indices analyzed, only the WIG index recorded a slight increase in value during the study period, while the WIG-20, WIG-Banki, and WIG-Spożywczy indices recorded a decline in valuation. An analysis of the factors influencing the changes in the value of the indices examined showed that the inflation rate was a significant factor affecting their value during the study period. This points to the important role of the state’s monetary policy in relation to the possibility of increasing the value of capital market companies by influencing internal demand, which determines the increase in the financial efficiency of enterprises. Research on the impact of unprecedented events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, is most often conducted in the context of the entire economy. This article examines the impact of these events on selected sectors. The study is valuable due to the relatively long research period (66 months) and its attempt to use capital market data to assess the situation in two different sectors: food and banking.

The article is devoted to the study of the essence and signs of asset securitization, as well as determining its place in the legal system of Ukraine. It is determined that in recent years, when the national economy is at the stage of active search for means to attract large-scale investments, asset securitization is considered not only a financial mechanism, but also a strategic legal category. Making changes to the rights of claim in liquid securities allows business entities to mobilize resources, which plays a critically important role in the restoration of the housing and infrastructure sector. However, the legal significance of this process is still debatable, repeatedly creating legal uncertainty between the usual assignment of the right of claim (cession) and factoring. In general, the need to study asset securitization from the point of view of legal science is associated with comprehensive changes in the financial system of Ukraine, the need to attract investments for the purpose of post-war economic recovery and the dynamic development of digitalization. It is worth noting that the development of the digital economy leads to the emergence of new challenges, in particular the need for a legal definition of securitization of virtual assets and the use of «blockchain technologies». In turn, this requires a reassessment of the features of securitization. Securitization should be considered a complex legal institution, which includes an interdisciplinary complex of legal norms and stock market law. Therefore, a clear understanding of its place will make it possible to unify legal norms and ensure stable development of the capital market. We have determined that asset securitization in Ukraine should be considered the process of transforming future cash flows from assets (in particular, loans) into securities, which allows the originator (creditor) to obtain financing by selling rights to such flows to investors through a specially created institution (SPV). It has been established that securitization should be considered not only as an economic process, but also as a complex legal structure, which involves the assignment of the right of claim to a specially created institution (SPV) and the subsequent issuance of securities. The main features of securitization are identified, in particular, the separation of the originator’s property pool; the presence of a special entity (SPV); the change of rights of claim into financial instruments.

The high volatility of stock prices in the property and real estate sector poses challenges for investors in predicting price movements and assessing firms’ fundamental performance. This study aims to analyze the effect of investment decisions and profitability on stock prices of property and real estate companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (Bursa Efek Indonesia, BEI) during the 2021–2024 period. A quantitative approach was employed with purposive sampling of 21 companies, resulting in 84 observational data points. Secondary data were collected from the official BEI website and analyzed using panel data regression with the aid of EViews 12 software. The results show that investment decisions do not have a significant effect on stock prices, whereas profitability has a positive and significant effect on stock prices. These findings indicate that investors are more responsive to firms’ earnings performance than to investment decisions as reflected in financial statements. The study concludes that improving profitability is a key factor in strengthening stock prices in the property and real estate sector and recommends that companies place greater emphasis on operational efficiency and profit management to enhance their investment appeal in the capital market.

S&P 500 is commonly used in empirical finance and macroeconomics as a measure of overall capital market sentiment, and the associated VIX is taken as an indicator of economic uncertainty. While both assume that the S&P 500 index is objectively constructed, we show that its membership decisions have a nontrivial amount of discretion unexplained by its published methodology. Importantly, we show that firms’ purchases of S&P ratings appear to improve their chance of entering the index (but purchases of Moody’s ratings do not). Furthermore, openings in index membership tend to motivate firms to purchase more S&P ratings. This is also confirmed by an event study of a 2002 membership rule change. These patterns raise concerns over potential governance issues. This paper was accepted by Will Cong, finance. Supplemental Material: The internet appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.08157 .

Purpose We present an accessible method of estimating companies' potential extreme weather liabilities, which can be used by policymakers, accountants, financial analysts, lenders and others to help assess climate risks. Design/methodology/approach Applying the emerging tool of emissions-based attribution, we estimate firms' climate liabilities by proposing an innovative Gordon's growth variant model for firms' potential extreme-weather-event liabilities. Findings Using our modelling approach, high-emitting firms' exposures appear considerable, potentially 3% of market capitalisation from single events. We estimate extreme-weather-event liability growth rates, showing the challenges of economic growth (accompanied by emissions) outstripping climate damages. Research limitations/implications The study provides a novel framework that can be used to assess the cost of extreme weather (EW) events for firms. Empirical testing is left to future research. Practical implications Our novel approach to assessing climate liability costs is accessible and straightforward to use by numerous stakeholders. Governments can assess carbon cost implications for high-emitting companies and contextualise corporate value implications against societal costs during policy design when considering responsibility (and cost) assignment to emitters. Accountants and analysts can explore company value sensitivities to extreme weather phenomena, emissions estimates and evolving societal positions on climate responsibility, including litigation. This will allow markets and decision-makers to better respond to corporate emissions' regulatory or financial consequences. Originality/value We include warming intensification, allowing financial analysts, accounting and risk management professionals to explore potential event liabilities, revised emissions estimates and evolving societal positions on climate damages responsibility (including litigation). Our model enables key economic stakeholders to more effectively integrate the financial impacts of corporate emissions into their decision-making processes and avoid a disruptive transition.

National Level At the national level, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) functions as the main capital market infrastructure that provides capital access for issuers and investment facilities for the public. This study aims to analyse the effect of dividend policy on the stock price of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk. during the 2015–2024 period, focusing on the analysis of Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Dividends Per Share (DPS). The method used in this study is quantitative with a causal nature. The research design is a time series study, as data were collected from the 2015–2024 period. Data were collected from the annual financial statements and quarterly reports of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk, which is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Data analysis was performed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM-PLS) techniques with the assistance of Smart PLS version 4 software to test the influence between the variables studied. The results show that stable and high dividend announcements, reflected in increases in EPS and DPS values, have a significant impact on the stock price of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk. Furthermore, DPS functions as a mediator between EPS and stock price, thereby increasing investor attractiveness to the company. The recommendation from this study is that an effective dividend policy can provide a positive signal to the market and influence stock price dynamics, so companies need to maintain a consistent dividend policy to strengthen investor confidence and stabilize stock prices in the capital market.