Capita Grain Research Articles

Farmland transition and its influences on grain production in China

Farmland transition and its influences on grain production in China

Spatial distribution characteristics and optimized reconstruction analysis of China’s rural settlements during the process of rapid urbanization

Spatial distribution characteristics and optimized reconstruction analysis of China’s rural settlements during the process of rapid urbanization

Capacity of soil loss control in the Loess Plateau based on soil erosion control degree

The capacity of soil and water conservation measures, defined as the maximum quantity of suitable soil and water conservation measures contained in a region, were determined for the Loess Plateau based on zones suitable for establishing terraced fields, forestland and grassland with the support of geographic information system (GIS) software. The minimum possible soil erosion modulus and actual soil erosion modulus in 2010 were calculated using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), and the ratio of the minimum possible soil erosion modulus under the capacity of soil and water conservation measures to the actual soil erosion modulus was defined as the soil erosion control degree. The control potential of soil erosion and water loss in the Loess Plateau was studied using this concept. Results showed that the actual soil erosion modulus was 3355 t∙km–2∙a–1, the minimum possible soil erosion modulus was 1921 t∙km–2∙a–1, and the soil erosion control degree was 0.57 (medium level) in the Loess Plateau in 2010. In terms of zoning, the control degree was relatively high in the river valley-plain area, soil-rocky mountainous area, and windy-sandy area, but relatively low in the soil-rocky hilly-forested area, hilly-gully area and plateau-gully area. The rate of erosion areas with a soil erosion modulus of less than 1000 t∙km–2∙a–1 increased from 50.48% to 57.71%, forest and grass coverage rose from 56.74% to 69.15%, rate of terraced fields increased from 4.36% to 19.03%, and per capita grain available rose from 418 kg∙a–1 to 459 kg∙a–1 under the capacity of soil and water conservation measures compared with actual conditions. These research results are of some guiding significance for soil and water loss control in the Loess Plateau.

Development of Sustainable Agriculture in China

Development of Sustainable Agriculture in China

基于模糊综合评判法的曲靖市农业可持续发展探析

通过建立曲靖农业可持续发展评价指标体系(农村经济指标、社会发展指标、资源永续指标和环境改善指标)，采用模糊综合评判法对曲靖农业可持续发展状况进行评估。结果表明：曲靖农业可持续发展各项指标的总隶属度为0.803，曲靖农业可持续发展的程度已基本隶属于目标值，但尚存在0.197的距离，尤其是曲靖农村经济增长指标仅为0.595，农村经济发展水平与目标值存在较大差距，差距值达0.405。从各类指标体系的子指标看，15项子指标中有7项指标的隶属度达到1，占总指标数的46.7%，表明这些指标是曲靖农业可持续发展的强项，隶属度小于0.5的指标有人均粮食产量、人均农业产值，这表明曲靖农业可持续发展的最大限制因素是农村经济增长指标。 Through the evaluation index system of agricultural sustainable development of Qujing (rural economic indicators, social indicators of development, sustainable resource indicators and envi-ronmental improvement index), the sustainable development of agriculture in Qujing is evaluated by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that: the indexes of sustainable agricultural development in Qujing of the total membership is 0.803, which indicates that the sustainable development of agriculture in Qujing basically belongs to the target value, but there are still 0.197 of the distance, especially the Qujing rural economic growth index was only 0.595, there is a big gap between the level and target of rural economic development, the gap value is 0.405. From the index of the index system, the 7 index of 15 indexes’ degree is 1, accounting for the total index number 46.7%, indicating that these indicators are the strengths of Qujing agricultural sustainable development. The index of less than 0.5 has per capita grain output and per capita agricultural output, which indicates that the maximum limit of the sustainable development of agriculture is the rural economic growth index in Qujing.

Comprehensive evaluation of agricultural water-saving potential in the middle reaches of Hei River using genetic projection pursuit model

农业节水潜力综合评价是进行节水规划的重要依据。目前, 区域农业节水潜力的定量研究和综合评价研究仍存在不足。为此, 本研究以地处西北内陆的黑河中游地区为研究单元, 以流域统计资料和野外参与式农户调查资料为基础, 借鉴层次分析方法原理, 考虑区域社会经济发展水平、水文水资源状况、农业水资源开发利用、农业节水水平和生态环境对区域农业节水潜力的影响, 建立了区域农业节水潜力综合评价指标体系。并针对各个单项评价指标的不相容问题, 提出基于实码加速遗传投影寻踪的区域农业节水潜力综合评价模型, 利用最佳投影方向判断各指标对综合评价目标的贡献大小和方向, 通过投影指标值大小对黑河中游地区各区县(甘州区、民乐县、临泽县、高台县和山丹县)农业节水潜力实现水平进行评价。结果表明: 水利投资占GDP比例、渠道防渗面积比和管道输水面积比等指标对区域农业节水潜力的影响较大, 而人均粮食产量、人均水资源拥有量、供水量模数等指标影响较小; 2005年, 甘州区、民乐县、临泽县、高台县和山丹县的投影值Z(i)=(1.366 5, 1.170 4, 1.239 1, 1.259 6, 1.158 6), 故甘州区、高台县和临泽县农业节水技术水平较高, 山丹县和民乐县农业节水技术水平较低, 节水技术应用潜力空间较大。研究结果可为区域节水农业技术持续发展提供科学依据和决策支持。

Research on the food security condition and food supply capacity of Egypt.

Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.

Prediction of Chinese per Capita Grain Yield Base on Residual Modification GM (1, 1) Model

To build effective grain yield prediction system and predict its trend scientifically, this study, on the basis of statistics, prognostics and agricultural economics, explains and functions grey system theory. As a new method, grey system still has many shortages. On the basis of comparison in correlative prediction, we propose GM (1, 1) grey prediction method by modifying ends to improve predictive precisions. Besides, combining with historic data during 2000-2009, predict, summary and propose the research future. Research indicates, whether theoretic basis or practice, grey model is more useful and convenient. It predicts the yield in future 5 years, the increasing speed will decrease. The increasing yield is 5-6 kilos per person, less than 8-10 kilos per person during 2003-2009. Surely, grain industry includes many son industries, such as rice, corn and wheat. The biggest son industry should be found to give different financial support, in order to eliminate errors. The innovation is to solve time responding function and incandesce equation of end residual sequence of GM (1, 1) model, to eliminate error. Besides, analyze practical examples to indicate its value in economic prediction and provide references for relative areas.

Mineral grains in caddisfly pupal cases and streambed sediments: assessing resource use and its limitation across various river types

Typically, lotic caddisflies attach their mineral pupal cases to cobbles in riffles, where rapid flows facilitate respiration but also decrease case-building material availability through erosion. Effects of local grain availability on grain quantities in and architecture of (per capita grain size use) pupal cases should be more important in Resident Construction Workers (RCWs, building immediately before pupation with minerals collected near the pupation location) than in Itinerant Construction Workers (ICWs, building months before pupation with minerals collected distantly from the pupation location). I tested these hypotheses analyzing mineral grain sizes in pupal cases and streambed sediments of cobble habitats in riffles of five running water types (headwater to large river in different regions) at baseflow or exceptional droughts. When pupae were abundant, the data supported both hypotheses at the local scale of samples, as grain size use by RCWs (as a group) but not by ICWs increased across all sites with local grain availability and abundant taxa among the former responded with four types of case-architecture modifications to grain size shortage. The data also supported the idea that at larger scales such as river or habitat types, mineral grains may be a limited resource for caddisflies building pupal cases with them. These findings suggest that water currents in streams or near shores of lakes and oceans that erode finer mineral grains can create conflicts in resource requirements for invertebrates that build with locally occurring finer mineral grains and simultaneously need high oxygen renewal rates and coarse grains for attachment.

Origins of the Food Crisis in India and Developing Countries

India has had a growing problem with food output and availability for the mass of the population since the inception of neoliberal economic reforms in 1991. A deep agricultural depression and rising unemployment rates resulting from reform policies have made the problem especially acute over the past decade. There has been a sharp decline in per capita grain output as well as grain consumption in the economy as a whole. Income has been shifting away from the majority towards the wealthy minority and a substantial segment of the population is being forced to eat less food and wear older clothing than before. This is exacerbated by the current global depression, which is further constraining mass consumption because of rising unemployment.This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website, where most recent articles are published in full.Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

Cold War Competition and Food Production in China, 1957–1962

Abstract This article examines how Mao’s grand strategy for Cold War competition inflicted a catastrophic agricultural failure in China and victimized tens of millions of Chinese peasants. It argues that Khrushchev’s 1957 boast about the Soviet Union surpassing the United States in key economic areas inspired Mao to launch an industrialization program that would push the People’s Republic past Great Britain in some production categories within fifteen years. Beginning in 1958 Mao imposed unrealistic targets on Chinese grain production to extract funds from agriculture for rapid industrial growth. Maoists placed relentless pressure on communist cadres for ruthless implementation of the Great Leap Forward. Contrary to Maoist plans, China’s grain output in 1959-1960 declined sharply from 1957 levels and rural per capita grain retention decreased dramatically. Throughout China, party cadres’ mismanagement of agricultural production was responsible for the decline in grain output, and the communist state’s excessive requisition of grain caused food shortages for the peasants. But the key factor determining the famine’s uneven impact on the peasantry in the provinces was the degree to which provincial leaders genuinely and energetically embraced Maoist programs. This is illustrated by a close examination of the Great Leap famine in Anhui Province.

Cold War Competition and Food Production in China, 1957-1962

This article examines how Mao's grand strategy for Cold War competition inflicted a catastrophic agricultural failure in China and victimized tens of millions of Chinese peasants. It argues that Khrushchev's 1957 boast about the Soviet Union surpassing the United States in key economic areas inspired Mao to launch an industrialization program that would push the People's Republic past Great Britain in some production categories within fifteen years. Beginning in 1958 Mao imposed unrealistic targets on Chinese grain production to extract funds from agriculture for rapid industrial growth. Maoists placed relentless pressure on communist cadres for ruthless implementation of the Great Leap Forward. Contrary to Maoist plans, China's grain output in 1959-1960 declined sharply from 1957 levels and rural per capita grain retention decreased dramatically. Throughout China, party cadres' mismanagement of agricultural production was responsible for the decline in grain output, and the communist state's excessive requisition of grain caused food shortages for the peasants. But the key factor determining the famine's uneven impact on the peasantry in the provinces was the degree to which provincial leaders genuinely and energetically embraced Maoist programs. This is illustrated by a close examination of the Great Leap famine in Anhui Province.

Droughts, Grain Markets and Food Crisis in Niger

Droughts, Grain Markets and Food Crisis in Niger

The changing regional distribution of grain production in China in the 21st century

This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000–2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in China can be observed. The main grain-producing areas have shifted from the south to the north of China. New grain production regions have been also added to western China since the late 1990s. The per capita grain consumption in one third of China’s main grain-producing counties has fallen below 400 kg; most of these areas are located in southern China. In the new millennium, Northeast China, the central-south North China, and the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China produced three quarters of the surplus grains. Most of these areas are located in regions susceptible to environmental change. The amount of grain production in these regions shows high fluctuations. It is argued here that further studies of recent environmental changes as well as a risk assessment of China’s food security in main grain-output regions are needed.

Implications of sustainable agriculture for the world food situation

Abstract World population growth rate has slowed since the early 1970s, but growth in world grain production has slowed further. As a result, per capita grain production has declined since 1983. Conventional farming practices that use heavy chemical applications and high‐yielding varieties have resulted in soil erosion, depletion of natural resources, contamination of the environment, and reduced biodiversity; and threaten to diminish the world's ability to sustain life of all kinds. If these trends persist, the earth may not sustain an adequate level of food production. Transition to sustainable agricultural practices could presumably prevent most of this degradation but may not produce adequate supplies of food to meet the growing demand. Although yields from sustainable agricultural farms can be as high as those from conventional farms, food production per acre of rotation generally declines because sustainable farms need to incorporate green manure crops and forage legumes into their rotations. Theref...

Does demographic entrapment challenge the two-child paradigm?

There has been a slowdown in the rate of increase of world population from 2.1% in 1970 to 1.8% in 1977. However there are no new technologies in prospect which suggest that farmers can restore the 3% increase in global grain production that took place annually from 1950 to 1984. Per capita grain has fallen 12% since 1984 and over the last 10 years the average annual increment in global grain has been 12 million tons. A local population is demographically trapped if it has exceeded or is projected to exceed the combination of: carrying capacity of its own ecosystem its ability to obtain food and its ability to migrate to other ecosystems. A severely trapped population faces the five alternatives of entrapment in varying combination. Rwanda is one of the most densely populated countries in Africa and has the highest total fertility in the world 8.5 children per woman. There is wide agreement that parts of the Indian subcontinent and much of Sub-Saharan Africa are demographically trapped. The World Bank estimates that if current food production and growth trends continue the food shortage for Africa will amount to 250 million tons of grain by 2020 or 20 times its current food gap. The world appears to be moving from a North/South polarity towards a rich/poor one in which Southern elites who are not trapped side with the North. If the current annual grain increment really is only 12 million tons of grain feeding 36 million people this calls for a one-child world if per capita grain is not to continue to fall. The most powerful argument for a one-child world is that if local communities need one-child families to avoid starvation or the other alternatives of entrapment the rest of the world should in the interests of equity do the same.

Food versus Fuel

Agriculturally-based alcohol fuel programs in food-exporting countries will become international issues as land is converted from food to fuel crops and the affluent world minority increases its demands and power at the expense of the poor. Brazil is the current leader in fuel crops, followed by the US, South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and a number of developing countries. The effect this is having on per capita grain production is reflected in the decline of world cropland and the increase in food prices. The shift to massive energy crops will have social and political ramifications as countries weigh the environmental and economic attractions of alcohol fuels against the pressures they place on food production. The steps that could minimize the potentially adverse effects of fuel crops include careful international planning to warn food-importing countries, arrest the erosion of topsoil, and a food-pricing monitoring system. 30 references, 2 tables.

Hunger in China: The Failure of a System?

Why have many economists missed the fact of persistent malnutrition, hunger, and famine in the People's Republic of China? The fault is certainly not in their expertise (remarkably sophisticated in application, given the dubious nature of the data available) but in their interpretive comments and conclusions, which often seem gratuitous, deriving neither from estimates of per capita grain consumption nor from any visible basis in fact.

Per capita grain output in China and India

Per capita grain output in China and India

Twenty-Two Dimensions of the Population Problem.

An examination of the economic social ecological and political facets of overpopulation portray the stresses and strains associated with continued population growth in a world already inhabited by four billion people. A lack of facilities and the effects of poor nutrition on intelligence make illiteracy especially common in areas of high population growth. Overfishing and pollution of oceans has lowered the productivity of oceanic fisheries and even at maximum levels oceanic production cannot meet food demands. Access to recreation areas is becoming increasingly limited. Waste has increased to a point where the ecosystem can no longer readily break it down and absorb it and pollution results. Inflation caused when demand exceeds supply is a result of large population gains. A growing share of all illness and death in the world today is directly attributable to human changes in the environment stemming from population growth. The recent downturn in per capita grain consumption the inability to rebuild grain reserves the acceleration of world dependence on North American grain exports and overgrazing are direct results of growing demands for food. Providing decent living quarters for a rapidly increasing population is extraordinarily difficult. Increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and dust in the atmosphere have changed the climate of large regions of the earth. The rural exodus has increased urbanization and crowding in both rural and urban areas has deleterious effects. Large population growth offsets gains in economic growth lowering the per capita income. Demand for land for agriculture and wood for fuel has caused serious deforestation. Energy and mineral demands cannot be met and water is in short supply. Health services cannot keep up with population growth. Individual freedom is compromised when limitations and guidelines must be imposed by the government for the common good.