Canadian Climate Research Articles

Risk Assessment of Norovirus Illness from Consumption of Raw Oysters in the United States and in Canada.

Human norovirus (NoV) is the leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States and Canada. Bivalve molluscan shellfish is one commodity commonly identified as being a vector of NoV. Bivalve molluscan shellfish are grown in waters that may be affected by contamination events, tend to bioaccumulate viruses, and are frequently eaten raw. In an effort to better assess the elements that contribute to potential risk of NoV infection and illness from consumption of bivalve molluscan shellfish, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services/Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Health Canada (HC), the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) collaborated to conduct a quantitative risk assessment for NoV in bivalve molluscan shellfish, notably oysters. This study describes the model and scenarios developed and results obtained to assess the risk of NoV infection and illness from consumption of raw oysters harvested from a quasi‐steady‐state situation. Among the many factors that influence the risk of NoV illness for raw oyster consumers, the concentrations of NoV in the influent (raw, untreated) and effluent (treated) of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) were identified to be the most important. Thus, mitigation and control strategies that limit the influence from human waste (WWTP outfalls) in oyster growing areas have a major influence on the risk of illness from consumption of those oysters.

Effects of climate changes on building energy demand and thermal comfort in Canadian office buildings adopting different temperature setpoints

Office buildings are responsible for a substantial portion of the energy demand in the commercial sector. To better understand and address the impacts of climate change on their energy demand and comfort levels, this paper investigates office buildings located in extremely cold, cold-humid, and cool-humid Canadian climate zones. Building energy simulations are performed using climate projections for the 2056–2075 period. The effect of extending thermostat setpoints, as a demand response strategy on reducing energy demand, is also studied under future climate conditions. The results quantify the expected decrease in the heating and the increase in the cooling loads due to the future warmer temperatures across Canada. However, the magnitude of change varies significantly among the three selected climate zones. In fact, extending the temperature setpoints would reduce the annual energy demand by 0.9–8.7% in Quebec City, 1.6–9.1% in Toronto, and 1.4–9.9% in Vancouver. For all three selected cities, extending the temperature setpoints result in a substantial percentage of zones with a predicted mean vote (PMV) outside of the ±0.5 range. The benefits of increased levels of insulation for reaching thermal comfort during cold winter days and the penalty that would occur in summer days are assessed. Finally, the greenhouse gas emissions for the present and forecasted future energy demand of heating and cooling are determined.

On the Immorality and Futility of Canadian Climate Policy under Trudeau

ABSTRACT This paper argues that Canadian climate policy under the Trudeau government is both self-defeating and immoral. Focusing on the central facet of the government's strategy – which trades a small carbon price for significant expansions of oil pipelines – the paper develops this argument in three principal ways. First, it situates the strategy in relation to the global warming potential of new extracted/exported emissions facilitated by new pipelines, which would overwhelm the savings created by the carbon price. Second, the paper focuses on the policy's potential to exacerbate a perilous national accumulation strategy that leaves workers and communities highly vulnerable to unstable global commodity markets. Finally, it situates the policy in relation to a centuries-old process of colonial theft of Indigenous lands to facilitate extractive development. The paper closes by considering what an environmentally sound and morally just Canadian climate policy would look like along eco-socialist lines.

Assessment of a novel phase change material-based thermal caisson for geothermal heating and cooling

Space heating and cooling account for major portions of the energy consumption in various types of buildings. Energy use that relies heavily on fossil fuels results in greenhouse gas emissions and ultimately contributes to climate change via global warming. As such, it is important to utilize clean and renewable technologies to meet building energy demands. One such technology is the ground-source heat pump (GSHP), which uses the free and abundant energy from the ground. However, GSHP systems are expensive to install and often suffer from declining efficiencies over time, especially when they are employed in buildings that have unbalanced heating and cooling loads, such as those in extreme Canadian climates. In this study, we introduce a novel concept, a thermal caisson (TC), which not only considerably reduces the capital costs of GSHP systems, but also mitigates their efficiency degradation over time. TCs serve a dual functionality as both structural components that support the building as well as energy system components that provide heating and cooling to buildings. The TC comprises ground heat exchanger loops and a carefully chosen phase change material (PCM), which stores and releases large quantities of latent heat when needed, connected to a high efficiency heat pump inside the building. Results show that TCs could reduce the capital costs of GSHP systems by up to 49% and increase their coefficients of performance by up to 16% (with a median change from 3.7 to 4.3 in January) resulting in much shorter payback periods as well as more stable and improved performance. Compared to fossil-fuel based systems, TCs offer a considerable reduction (close to 30% in this study) in annual operating costs for a much smaller corresponding increase in capital costs. The results suggest that TCs have promise to be widely incorporated in the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems of numerous building types.

Facilitators and Barriers to Healthy Midlife Transition among South Asian Immigrant Women in Canada: A Qualitative Exploration.

Background: South Asian immigrant women make up the largest visible minority in Canada, where visible minorities include persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour, and approximately half of these women are above the age of 35. Few studies have investigated the factors that impact the midlife transition for these women. This study aims to identify the facilitators and barriers experienced by South Asian immigrant women during the midlife transition. Methods: Two focus groups and ten one-on-one interviews about the midlife transition were held with South Asian first-generation immigrant women in the Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, Canada; discussions were analyzed thematically. Findings: Personal facilitators to the midlife transition included being employed and possessing adequate life skills. Personal barriers consisted of financial strain, overwhelming demands, and limited life skills. Familial facilitators were stable financial status and support. Familial barriers included limited understanding and support and high expectations. Community facilitators included a close social circle and adequate healthcare. Community barriers were limited social support and cultural expectations. Fair and respectful societies were a facilitator, whereas inadequate policy support and acculturative stress were societal barriers. An environmental barrier was the colder Canadian climate. Discussion: Employment and education programs for South Asian immigrant women need to be prioritized to help them integrate into society. Family-centred assessment and education can improve familial support. Communities need to foster peer support groups and culturally sensitive healthcare. Social and employment policies should accommodate the midlife transition. Conclusions: South Asian immigrant women experience unique facilitators and barriers to their midlife transition that should be considered by healthcare providers, policymakers and society to support them.

Studying the impact factors influencing variable-capacity heat pump energy performance through simulation

Cold-climate variable-capacity air-to-air heat pumps (VCHPs) have the potential to significantly reduce energy use in the Canadian residential sector. However, optimizing their integration in the Canadian climate can be a challenge, with efficiency and operating behaviour heavily dependent on ambient conditions, building thermal loads, modulating capability and the units’ individual performance characteristics. Better understanding how these factors influence energy performance can lead to improved system selection, and ensure that high efficiency space heating systems contribute towards meeting Canada’s emission reduction targets. This study outlines three major factors – individual performance characteristics (cold climate capacity, part load performance), modulation ratio and sizing – related to VCHP selection, and examines their relative impact on annual energy use and operating behaviour using a simulation-based approach.

Assessment of three solar-assisted heat pump typologies in Canada: parallel, series, and ice storage

This paper discusses the energy savings, operating costs, and net present values of three typologies of solar assisted heat pump in Canada: parallel systems, series systems, and ice storage systems. Typologies are evaluated for three detached house archetypes of varying energy performances, and across a variety of Canadian climates. Hourly energy modelling is accomplished with a custom spreadsheet tool. The models developed are approximate and meant for high level analysis. This work is meant as a first step in a process of verifying the potential for each of the typologies. In most cases, the parallel system performs best in terms of annual energy savings. The paper goes over the models, assumptions, and some results. Recommendations are discussed for future research focusing on system payback times. The next step will consist of using a detailed sub-hourly simulation tool for the typology that has been found to be the most promising.

Canadian Climate Change Policy: A Comprehensive Account

At present, there is a rich and extensive body of literature that concerns itself with the climate-related policies of successive Canadian governments. A vast majority of these works rely heavily on a single determinant—societal, governmental, or external—to account for said policies. In borrowing from and adding to this scholarship, this paper demonstrates how all three determinants have interacted with one another in unique and important ways in order to inform Canadian climate policy thus far. In analyzing nearly four decades worth of major climate-related decisions made by the Canadian government, this paper is organized sequentially, into four chronological phases, each of which focuses primarily upon the given governing party. In concluding its evaluation, this paper presents two normative policy recommendations to enhance Canada’s climate agenda: increased investment in green technology and purposive, thoughtful consultation with Indigenous peoples.

Thirty Years of Failure: Understanding Canadian Climate Policy. Robert MacNeil

<i>Thirty Years of Failure: Understanding Canadian Climate Policy</i>. Robert MacNeil

The forecast of fire impact on Pinus sylvestris renewal in southwestern Siberia

Simulation of fire impact on forest floor renewal in pine forests was based on predictions for 2100 by the Canadian Climate Centre for increase in temperatures of by 4.5 °C and total precipitation by 14% in the West Siberian pre-forest-steppes and empirical regression relationships between them and the degree of burnt forest floor, as well as amount of Pinus sylvestris L. regeneration. It was predicted that by 2100, pine regeneration on fire prone sites under the canopy of the dominant forest type will increase by 29–54% compared to the 1980s but on adjacent open sites, regeneration will decrease twice as much. This means that the regeneration potential and pine population stability in pre-forest-steppes will become as poor as it is today.

Estimation of genetic parameters and trends for growth traits in Hays Converter cattle using multiple-trait and random regression models

Hays Converter (HC), the first registered Canadian beef breed, was developed by Harry Hays in the 1950’s as a composite with contributions from Holstein, Hereford, Brown Swiss and with a later introgression of Angus. The breed is well adapted to the Western Canadian climate. Calves reach market weight early, convert feed to gain efficiently, and have excellent carcass quality and yield. The edited data consisted of 21,612 weight records taken at ages 1 to 474 days, from 8,850 animals born at Red Bow Ranching Ltd., Calgary, Alberta between 1970 and 2016. This study aimed to evaluate the genetic parameters and trends in birth, weaning and yearling weights of HC through comparison of different multiple trait models (MTM) with a random regression model (RRM). In MTM scenarios, both adjusted and unadjusted data were examined besides considering contemporary groups (CG) as fixed or random. Estimates of variance components, heritability and genetic correlations from the two approaches were not substantially different and showed similar changes along the growth trajectory. Although there was a considerable reduction in genetic trends from 2004 to 2008, due to weak sire selection, trends generally increased through 2016. Overall, both models performed similarly and fixed CG were preferred.

Smart energy harvesting performance of photovoltaic roof assemblies in Canadian climate

ABSTRACT In Canada, the solar electricity sector is growing rapidly. Much of this success is based on the growth of the Ontario solar market where more than 99% of Canada’s solar electricity is generated. Ontario has developed a globally recognized solar market sector. The vast surface area of existing residential roofs across Canada represents an untapped resource for capitalizing on passive and active management of impinging solar insolation. The aim of the current research study is to evaluate the new energy harvesting technologies such as a thin-film PV integrated roof system that could serve as a conventional roofing for weather protection while generating clean solar electricity, and the new generation micro inverters that have the potential to outperform string inverters under shading and snow-cover conditions. This paper has two parts that will discuss about two smart energy harvesting technologies and their performance on residential applications in Canadian climate. Part 1 of the paper focusses on field evaluation of Roof Integrated Photovoltaic (RIPV) and Part 2 talks about the energy yield performance of integrated solar tiles and new generation micro inverters. The RIPV field trial took place at the Canadian Centre for Housing Technology (CCHT) Info Centre in Ottawa, Canada. This is a novel approach adapted from a roofing system that would typically be found on low-sloped roofs such as commercial supermarkets, industrial warehouses and school buildings. Over the eight month study period, surmounting the effects of snow cover and shadows, the RIPV system generated over 1 MWh of electricity, and had a measured system efficiency of 5.3%. The study on the new generation micro inverters for residential applications addressed the shading effects on the intermittent nature of solar energy generation. Simulating the shading conditions that are experienced by typical residential rooftop, the micro inverters were found to increase production by 1–68% relative to the conventional string inverters. The research outcome of this study has demonstrated that both these energy harvesting technologies have important incremental benefits in increasing the renewables contribution to power generation in residential homes in Canadian climatic conditions.

Seasonal sensitivity to atmospheric and ground surface temperature changes of an open earth-air heat exchanger in Canadian climates

Open earth-air heat exchangers (EAHE) have an inherent relationship with their surrounding environment, relying on the natural contrast between ambient air and subsurface temperatures. This work explored the seasonal sensitivity of open earth air heat exchanger systems to variations in these temperatures. Utilizing 492 weather files in Canada, the heating and cooling potential of open earth air heat exchangers computed using a climate-based approach were compared for different seasonal variation scenarios. Heightened sensitivity to seasonal changes in ground temperatures relative to air temperatures were observed. These effects expectedly decreased with depth. Heating and cooling potential sensitivity to seasonal variations in air temperatures are dependent on the timing, often observing the greatest influence during peak demand periods. Binning by climates identified that regions with a greater mix of heating and cooling potential were more susceptible to seasonal variations. These results also suggest improvements to the heating potential in Canada can be improved by increasing ground surface temperatures outside the summer season, with little influence on the cooling potential. Understanding the interaction between open earth air heat exchanger systems and their environments can ultimately help outline limitations and design solutions specific to their implementation in Canadian climates.

Media Coverage and Perceived Policy Influence of Environmental Actors: Good Strategy or Pyrrhic Victory?

In this article we analyze how media coverage for environmental actors (individual environmental activists and environmental movement organizations) is associated with their perceived policy influence in Canadian climate change policy networks. We conceptualize media coverage as the total number of media mentions an actor received in Canada’s two main national newspapers—the &lt;em&gt;Globe and Mail&lt;/em&gt; and &lt;em&gt;National Post&lt;/em&gt;. We conceptualize perceived policy influence as the total number of times an actor was nominated by other actors in a policy network as being perceived to be influential in domestic climate change policy making in Canada. Literature from the field of social movements, agenda setting, and policy networks suggests that environmental actors who garner more media coverage should be perceived as more influential in policy networks than actors who garner less coverage. We assess support for this main hypothesis in two ways. First, we analyze how actor attributes (such as the type of actor) are associated with the amount of media coverage an actor receives. Second, we evaluate whether being an environmental actor shapes the association between media coverage and perceived policy influence. We find a negative association between media coverage and perceived policy influence for individual activists, but not for environmental movement organizations. This case raises fundamental theoretical questions about the nature of relations between media and policy spheres, and the efficacy of media for signaling and mobilizing policy influence.

Implications of EMF 34 scenarios on renewable deployment and carbon abatement in Canada: Insights from a regionalized energy model

This paper proposes a detailed analysis of the evolution of Canadian energy systems under some selected EMF (Energy Modeling Forum) 34 scenarios. Our analysis is based on NATEM, an energy model that follows the TIMES approach of the International Energy Agency to represent in detail the energy sector of each of the 13 Canadian provinces and territories. NATEM shows that imposing different renewable penetration constraints for electricity generation has limited impacts outside the electricity sector. In particular, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to increase over time. Conversely, the imposition of a carbon tax has broader impacts on Canadian energy systems and on GHG emissions that are almost stabilized. However, the level of the carbon tax envisions by the EMF 34 study (increasing to a maximum level of $130 per tonne by 2050) is not high enough, in a Canadian context, to trigger a decrease of GHG emissions over time as mandated by Canadian climate policies.

Scaling up forest landscape restoration in Canada in an era of cumulative effects and climate change

While the global restoration movement is rapidly gaining momentum, understanding the concept and benefits of forest and landscape restoration (FLR) is paramount to safeguarding the natural capital of Canada's forests. In the face of increasing cumulative effects, we investigated the opportunities for scaling up FLR efforts in Canadian forests. The pace of industrial natural resource extraction developments (logging, agriculture, mining, and energy sector), and their overlapping in time and space with the impacts of climate change have resulted in ecosystem function and services alteration, as well as changes in natural disturbance regimes (e.g., wildland fire and pests). These dramatic and synergistic changes to environmental, socio-economic and cultural values occurring in the landscape need to be considered in land use planning but are highly variable and uncertain. We suggested that adding FLR to the land use agenda could offer a clear pathway to transform degraded landscapes into functional landscapes that deliver co-benefits and livelihoods to multiple land users. Supported by existing policies, the practices and goals of FLR initiatives dovetail with Canadian national conservation priorities such as national woodland caribou recovery as well as the development of Indigenous protected areas and nature-based climate solutions. At the international level, involvement in FLR initiatives such as the Bonn Challenge could advance Canadian climate change and ecosystem degradation commitments identified in the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals as well as in the Convention on Biological Diversity. To inform policymakers and practitioners, we suggested key collaborative actions to move towards a national restoration framework. Given competing land uses and values, a successful FLR strategy will require a multi-stakeholder governance approach supported by the different levels of government as well as other land users including extractive industries and Indigenous communities. Assessing socio-economic trade-offs around planning, funding, implementing, and monitoring restoration efforts is also crucial.

Life Cycle Operating Carbon Impact of a Standardized Passive House in Various Canadian Climates

Abstract Over the past 10 years in Europe and North America, passive house standards have become the leading high-performance building standards. Although site energy metrics are paramount in these...

Evaluation of Climate Change in the Rice-Growing Zone of Ukraine and Ways of Adaptation to the Predicted Changes

The article presents the results of the analysis of the current state of weather and climatic conditions and evaluation of their predicted changes for immediate and distant prospects in the rice-growing zone of Ukraine. Studies were performed on the example of the Danube rice irrigation systems (RIS) in Odessa region with a total area of 13,678 ha, which are located in lands prone to salinization. The following major meteorological characteristics were investigated: air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and air humidity deficit, as well as derivatives: photosynthetically active radiation and water availability coefficient (precipitation/evapotranspiration ratio). Retrospective analysis and forecast of meteorological regimes by typical groups were done (estimated years) of vegetation periods of target years in view of general heat and moisture provision: very wet—p = 10%, wet—p = 30%, middle—p = 50%, dry—p = 70%, very dry—p = 90%. The basis of forecast calculations is the results of studies of possible changes of air temperature by the models of Canadian Climate Center “CCCM” and of the United Kingdom Met Office “UKMO” which foresee an increase in average annual temperature up to 4 °C and 6 °C relatively—provided that the doubling CO2 in atmosphere occurs. The main trends in changes of meteorological characteristics and their possible effect on the conditions of functioning rice irrigation systems as well as on the natural and ameliorative state of irrigated areas were identified. The most significant influence on the condition of fonctioning of RIS is air temperature, which directly effects duration of maturation and total value of water consumption of rice crops. It is established that in the last decades a significant increase in the average value of air temperature for the growing season happened (April–October): 1981–1990—16.9 °C, 1991–2000—17.5 °C, 2001–2010—18.1 °C, 2011–2017—17.7 °C. It is determined that at the existing rates and levels of weather and climatic changes, we should expect a significant deterioration of functioning conditions of RIS and natural reclamation state of irrigated land. In this regard, were examined core measures regarding the adaptive potential enhancement and development of the rice-growing zone under the conditions of climate change.

Sampling frequency of climate data for the determination of daily temperature and daily temperature extrema

AbstractThe sampling frequency of temperature data is examined. The range of sampling from hourly to twice daily are explored to determine the uncertainty that is introduced by sampling less frequently than hourly in the determination of daily temperature and daily temperature extrema. The standards for comparison for the daily average temperature are the average of hourly data and the average of the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Hourly temperature data from 12 Canadian climate stations are examined for several decades leading up to 2017. Daily average temperatures were calculated using data sampled 24 times a day (hourly), 12 times, 8 times, 6 times, 4 times and twice daily. Two triad algorithms from the literature and an experimental one are assessed relative to these sampling frequencies. The sampling frequency analysis was remarkably consistent across all climate stations. The departure from the hourly estimate ranged from 0.1°C for the bi‐hourly sampling to ~1°C for the twice daily sampling. The uncertainty associated with the min/max method consistently fell within that of three and four samples per day. Comparison of triad algorithms, based on a quantitative criterion for determination of best sampling hours, revealed a station specific triad that outperforms algorithms from the literature and thrice daily evenly spaced sampling. Minimum and maximum estimates were compared across the different sampling frequencies for all stations as well. The accuracy of estimating temperature extrema decreases with lower sampling rates with the exception of the 8 hr sampling where hour of sampling influences accuracy. The results demonstrate that the local climate characteristics needs to be considered when choosing the optimal sampling frequency and calculation method for daily means and extrema.

Evaluation of gridded climate datasets over Canada using univariate and bivariate approaches: Implications for hydrological modelling

This study evaluates the univariate and bivariate characteristics of five gridded products with respect to the Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data for 1980–2010. Spatial variations of temperature and precipitation biases including the ones corresponding to the magnitude and frequency of extremes are assessed over Canada. The dependence structure between the two variables is analysed across each dataset using a goodness of fit test based on copulas. The propagation of univariate and bivariate biases into streamflow simulations is then investigated by driving a semi-distributed hydrological model for three watersheds with distinct characteristics in western Canada. The input data include original (unadjusted) and bias-corrected climate data based on the univariate quantile delta mapping and multivariate bias correction approaches. The univariate analyses show that all datasets have relatively significant cold and wet biases to the west of the Rocky Mountains and hot and dry biases over the Prairies. Bivariate evaluations using copulas show that all products fail to capture the dependence structure between temperature and precipitation at the majority of the locations, which can undermine their suitability for compound event assessments. The differences between univariate and multivariate bias correction approaches are highlighted by the significant differences in the interrelationships between precipitation and temperature. Hydrological modelling results show major improvements in the detection of extremes after correcting the bivariate biases of the input datasets.