Estimates Of Disease Burden Research Articles

Triplex ELISA for Assessing Durability of Taenia solium Seropositivity after Neurocysticercosis Cure.

Neurocysticercosis prevalence estimates often are based on serosurveys. However, assessments of Taenia solium seropositivity durability in patients with various neurocysticercosis types are lacking. We optimized a triplex serologic ELISA by using synthetic GP50, T24H, and Ts18var3 antigens for T. solium. We used that assay to test sequential serologic responses over several years after neurocysticercosis cure in 46 patients, 9 each with parenchymal or ventricular neurocysticercosis and 28 with subarachnoid disease. Triplex results were concordant with 98% of positive and 100% of negative enzyme-linked immunoelectrotransfer blots. Eight years after neurocysticercosis cure, 11.1% of patients with parenchymal, 47.3% with subarachnoid, and 41.7% with ventricular disease were still seropositive. Median time to seroreversion after cure in this cohort in a T. solium nonendemic area was 2 years for parenchymal disease, 4 years for ventricular disease, and 8 years for subarachnoid disease. Our findings can inform epidemiologic models that rely on serosurveys to estimate disease burden.

Estimating disease burden using national linked electronic health records: a study using an English population-based cohort.

Background: Electronic health records (EHRs) have the potential to be used to produce detailed disease burden estimates. In this study we created disease estimates using national EHR for three high burden conditions, compared estimates between linked and unlinked datasets and produced stratified estimates by age, sex, ethnicity, socio-economic deprivation and geographical region. Methods: EHRs containing primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink), secondary care (Hospital Episode Statistics) and mortality records (Office for National Statistics) were used. We used existing disease phenotyping algorithms to identify cases of cancer (breast, lung, colorectal and prostate), type 1 and 2 diabetes, and lower back pain. We calculated age-standardised incidence of first cancer, point prevalence for diabetes, and primary care consultation prevalence for low back pain. Results: 7.2 million people contributing 45.3 million person-years of active follow-up between 2000-2014 were included. CPRD-HES combined and CPRD-HES-ONS combined lung and bowel cancer incidence estimates by sex were similar to cancer registry estimates. Linked CPRD-HES estimates for combined Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes were consistently higher than those of CPRD alone, with the difference steadily increasing over time from 0.26% (2.99% for CPRD-HES vs. 2.73 for CPRD) in 2002 to 0.58% (6.17% vs. 5.59) in 2013. Low back pain prevalence was highest in the most deprived quintile and when compared to the least deprived quintile the difference in prevalence increased over time between 2000 and 2013, with the largest difference of 27% (558.70 per 10,000 people vs 438.20) in 2013. Conclusions: We use national EHRs to produce estimates of burden of disease to produce detailed estimates by deprivation, ethnicity and geographical region. National EHRs have the potential to improve disease burden estimates at a local and global level and may serve as more automated, timely and precise inputs for policy making and global burden of disease estimation.

Systematic review of global hepatitis E outbreaks to inform response and coordination initiatives

IntroductionHepatitis E virus (HEV) is the most common cause of acute hepatitis. While symptoms are generally mild and resolve within weeks, some populations (e.g., pregnant women, immunocompromised adults) are at high-risk of severe HEV-related morbidity and mortality. There has not been a recent comprehensive review of contemporary HEV outbreaks, which limits the validity of current disease burden estimates. Therefore, we aimed to characterize global HEV outbreaks and describe data gaps to inform HEV outbreak prevention and response initiatives.MethodsWe performed a systematic review of peer-reviewed (PubMed, Embase) and gray literature (ProMED) to identify reports of outbreaks published between 2011 and 2022. We included (1) reports with ≥ 5 cases of HEV, and/or (2) reports with 1.5 times the baseline incidence of HEV in a specific population, and (3) all reports with suspected (e.g., clinical case definition) or confirmed (e.g., ELISA or PCR test) cases if they met criterium 1 and/or 2. We describe key outbreak epidemiological, prevention and response characteristics and major data gaps.ResultsWe identified 907 records from PubMed, 468 from Embase, and 247 from ProMED. We screened 1,362 potentially relevant records after deduplication. Seventy-one reports were synthesized, representing 44 HEV outbreaks in 19 countries. The populations at risk, case fatalities, and outbreak durations were not reported in 66% of outbreak reports. No reports described using HEV vaccines. Reported intervention efforts included improving sanitation and hygiene, contact tracing/case surveillance, chlorinating boreholes, and advising residents to boil water. Commonly missing data elements included specific case definitions used, testing strategy and methods, seroprevalence, impacts of interventions, and outbreak response costs. Approximately 20% of HEV outbreaks we found were not published in the peer-reviewed literature.ConclusionHEV represents a significant public health problem. Unfortunately, extensive data shortages and a lack of standardized reporting make it difficult to estimate the HEV disease burden accurately and to implement effective prevention and response activities. Our study has identified major gaps to guide future studies and outbreak reporting systems. Our results support the development of standardized reporting procedures/platforms for HEV outbreaks to ensure accurate and timely data distribution, including active and passive coordinated surveillance systems, particularly among high-risk populations.

Harmonized approach to estimate the burden of disease of dietary exposure to four chemical contaminants - A French study

Exposure to chemical contaminants found in foods has been associated with various adverse health effects. Burden of disease studies are increasingly used to estimate the public health impact of such exposures. The aims of this study were to estimate the burden of disease due to dietary exposure to four chemicals in France in 2019 (lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), methylmercury (MeHg), and inorganic arsenic (i-As)), and to develop harmonized methods that can be applied for other chemicals and countries. We used national food consumption data from the third French national food consumption survey, chemical food monitoring data from the Second French Total Diet Study (TDS), dose-response data and disability weights from scientific literature, and disease incidence and demographics from national statistics. We adopted a risk assessment approach to estimate disease burden, incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to dietary exposure to the chemicals. In all models, we harmonized food classification and exposure assessment. We propagated uncertainty through the calculations using Monte Carlo simulation. We estimated that, among these chemicals, i-As and Pb were responsible for the highest disease burden. i-As was estimated to cause 820 DALYs, or approximately 1.25 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants. The estimated burden of Pb was 1834 to 5936 DALYs, or 2.7 (lower bound) to 8.96 (upper bound) DALYs/100,000. The burden of MeHg (192 DALYs), and Cd (0 DALY) was substantially lower. The foods contributing most to disease burden was drinks (30 %), “other foods” (mostly composite dishes) (19 %), and fish and seafood (7 %). Interpretation of estimates needs to consider all underlying uncertainties, linked with data and knowledge gaps. The harmonized models are the first to make use of data from TDS, which are available in several other countries. Thus, they can be applied to estimate the burden and to rank food-associated chemicals at national level.

The epidemiological patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: global estimates of disease burden, risk factors, and temporal trends.

The incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) has increased steadily over the past few decades. Elucidating its global burden will facilitate more effective disease management and improve patient outcomes. We explored the disease burden, risk factors, and trends in incidence and mortality in NHL globally. The up-to-date data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of NHL were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN 2020, CI5 volumes I-XI, WHO mortality database, and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, focusing on geographic disparities worldwide. We reported incidence and mortality by sex and age, along with corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs), the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and future burden estimates to 2040. In 2020, there were an estimated 545,000 new cases and 260,000 deaths of NHL globally. In addition, NHL resulted in 8,650,352 age-standardized DALYs in 2019 worldwide. The age-specific incidence rates varied drastically across world areas, at least 10-fold in both sexes, with the most pronounced increase trend found in Australia and New Zealand. By contrast, North African countries faced a more significant mortality burden (ASR, 3.7 per 100,000) than highly developed countries. In the past decades, the pace of increase in incidence and mortality accelerated, with the highest AAPC of 4.9 (95%CI: 3.6-6.2) and 6.8 (95%CI: 4.3-9.2) in the elderly population, respectively. Considering risk factors, obesity was positively correlated with age-standardized incidence rates (P< 0.001). And North America was the high-risk region for DALYs due to the high body mass index in 2019. Regarding demographic change, NHL incident cases are projected to rise to approximately 778,000 by 2040. In this pooled analysis, we provided evidence for the growing incidence trends in NHL, particularly among women, older adults, obese populations, and HIV-infected people. And the marked increase in the older population is still a public health issue that requires more attention. Future efforts should be directed at cultivating health awareness and formulating effective and locally tailored cancer prevention strategies, especially in most developing countries.

The estimated disease burden of COVID-19 in Japan from 2020 to 2021

BackgroundTo date, it is not fully understood to what extent COVID-19 has burdened society in Japan. This study aimed to estimate the total disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan during 2020–2021. MethodsWe stratify disease burden estimates by age group and present it as absolute Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost and QALYs lost per 100,000 persons. The total estimated value of QALYs lost consists of (1) QALYs lost brought by deaths due to COVID-19, (2) QALYs lost brought by inpatient cases, (3) QALYs lost brought by outpatient cases, and (4) QALYs lost brought by long-COVID. ResultsThe total QALYs lost due to COVID-19 was estimated as 286,782 for two years, 114.0 QALYs per 100,000 population per year. 71.3% of them were explained by the burden derived from deaths. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the burden of outpatient cases was the most sensitive factor. ConclusionsThe large part of disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021 was derived from Wave 3, 4, and 5 and the proportion of QALYs lost due to morbidity in the total burden increased gradually. The estimated disease burden was smaller than that in other high-income countries. It will be our future challenge to take other indirect factors into consideration.

Estimation of Respiratory Disease Burden Attributed to Particulate Matter from Biomass Burning in Northern Thailand Using 1-km Resolution MAIAC-AOD

The upper northern Thailand suffers from air pollution due to open burning, which has been known for a long time. It was also found that different respiratory diseases were attributed to air pollution, especially particulate matter. This study estimated the health impacts attributed to PM10 between 2014 and 2016 using the burden of disease in terms of the disability adjusted life year (DALYs). The spatial correlation was evaluated based on applicable remote sensing data using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The average measured PM10 concentrations for the summer and annual periods between 2014 and 2016 were 73 and 89 µg m-3, respectively, exceeded the national standard (50 µg m-3). In the months of March and April, when PM10 concentrations were at their highest, the maximum values of the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC-AOD), 2.70 and 3.48, were recorded. There was a strong correlation between the MAIAC-AOD and the ground-based AOD measurements (AERONET stations), with R of 0.8468, 0.8396, and 0.8334 between 2014–2016. The correlation coefficients for the 3,208 co-located gridded of PM10 emissions vs. measured PM10, measured PM10 vs. MAIAC-AOD, and MAIAC-AOD vs. PM10 emissions were 0.6656, 0.6446, and 0.5580, respectively. The spatial correlation between the interpolated measured PM10 and 1-km MAIAC-AOD was 0.5979, 0.3741, and 0.7584 as an outcome of GWR. The total DALYs of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) attributable to PM10 in 2014–2016 were 115,930 years per 100,000 population, with the relative risk of COPD related to PM10 at a 95% confidence interval of 1.2045–1.2107.

A novel approach to biological risk surveillance in occupational hygiene: A case study on the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment to determine occupational risks for wastewater treatment plants workers in Costa Rica

Wastewater treatment is essential for preventing infectious diseases and water pollution. To perform this process, workers operate and maintain wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs); thus, they are exposed to the many pathogens in domestic wastewater. Consequently, it is necessary assess occupational exposure to pathogens in WWTPs. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is an approach for estimating the risk posed by a specific pathogen which can be useful for occupational hygiene assessments of biological risk. In this study, we applied QMRA, informed by occupational field surveillance, to estimate the potential risk for WWTP workers. Furthermore, we used simulations to test additional control strategies such as personal protective equipment (PPE). The QMRA was conducted for three WWTPs in Costa Rica with data collected between May 2020 and May 2021. Observation in each workplace showed a need for more consistent application of risk reduction strategies in the work environment, especially in behavior, infrastructure, and use of appropriate PPE. Cryptosporidium sp., Giardia sp., norovirus, and enterovirus genus were measured and detected in the WWTPs, and the treatment performance was unsatisfactory. As a result, the total health disease burden was higher than the benchmark for drinking water recommended by WHO (1.00 × 10−6 DALY per person per year) by between one and three magnitudes orders in all WWTPs for the three exposure scenarios (operation, maintenance, and visitors). The simulation demonstrated that using PPE could reduce the estimated disease burden by nearly two orders of magnitude. Still, this control measure did not reach a level below the benchmark risk (less than 1.00 × 10−6 DALY per person per year) for the WWTP workers. This study highlights the importance of using PPE with other control measures, such as automation or barriers, to isolate exposure sources. However, this study employed an uncommon approach in occupational health and hygiene, which combined field inspections, survival analysis, and QMRA, using field surveillance to understand the occupational environment and potential exposure routes, which is crucial for hazard identification and risk assessment. In addition, exposure modeling and QMRA were used to simulate different control scenarios, providing a robust estimate of potential risks associated with occupational exposure.

National cervical cancer burden estimation through systematic review and analysis of publicly available data in Pakistan

BackgroundCervical cancer is a major cause of cancer-related deaths among women worldwide. Paucity of data on cervical cancer burden in countries like Pakistan hamper requisite resource allocation.ObjectiveTo estimate the burden of cervical cancer in Pakistan using available data sources.MethodsWe performed a systematic review to identify relevant data on Pakistan between 1995 to 2022. Study data identified through the systematic review that provided enough information to allow age specific incidence rates and age standardized incidence rates (ASIR) calculations for cervical cancer were merged. Population at risk estimates were derived and adjusted for important variables in the care-seeking pathway. The calculated ASIRs were applied to 2020 population estimates to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases in Pakistan.ResultsA total of 13 studies reported ASIRs for cervical cancer for Pakistan. Among the studies selected, the Karachi Cancer Registry reported the highest disease burden estimates for all reported time periods: 1995–1997 ASIR = 6.81, 1998–2002 ASIR = 7.47, and 2017–2019 ASIR = 6.02 per 100,000 women. Using data from Karachi, Punjab and Pakistan Atomic Energy Cancer Registries from 2015–2019, we derived an unadjusted ASIR for cervical cancer of 4.16 per 100,000 women (95% UI 3.28, 5.28). Varying model assumptions produced adjusted ASIRs ranging from 5.2 to 8.4 per 100,000 women. We derived an adjusted ASIR of 7.60, (95% UI 5.98, 10.01) and estimated 6166 (95% UI 4833, 8305) new cases of cervical cancer per year.ConclusionThe estimated cervical cancer burden in Pakistan is higher than the WHO target. Estimates are sensitive to health seeking behavior, and appropriate physician diagnostic intervention, factors that are relevant to the case of cervical cancer, a stigmatized disease in a low-lower middle income country setting. These estimates make the case for approaching cervical cancer elimination through a multi-pronged strategy.

Incidence, hospitalization, and mortality in children aged 5 years and younger with respiratory syncytial virus-related diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection in young children. We aimed to analyze the factors affecting the estimation of RSV-related disease burden, and to provide evidence to help establish a surveillance system. We searched the English- and Chinese-language databases for articles published between January 1, 2010 and June 2, 2022. The quality of the included articles was assessed using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality scale. Random-effects models were used for data synthesis and subgroup analyses. This review was registered in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42022372972). We included 44 studies (149,321,171 participants), all of which were of medium or high quality. The pooled RSV-related disease incidence, hospitalization rate, in-hospital mortality, and overall mortality rates in children aged 5 years and younger were 9.0 per 100 children per year (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.0-11.0), 1.7 per 100 children per year (95% CI: 1.3-2.1), 0.5 per 100 children per year (95% CI: 0.4-0.5), and 0.05 per 100 children per year (95% CI: 0.04-0.06), respectively. Age, economics, surveillance types, case definition, and data source were all recognized as influencing factors. A standardized and unified RSV surveillance system is required. Case definition and surveillance types should be fully considered for surveillance of different age groups.

Disability-Adjusted Life Years Due to Pediatric Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in the United States: A CARES Surveillance Group Study.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) are a common public health metric used to estimate disease burden. The DALY due to pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in the United States is unknown. We aimed to estimate pediatric OHCA DALY and to compare it with the other leading causes of pediatric death and disability in the United States. We conducted a retrospective observational analysis of the national Cardiac Arrest Registry to Enhance Survival database. DALY were calculated as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. Years of life lost were calculated using all pediatric (age <18 years) nontraumatic OHCA from the Cardiac Arrest Registry to Enhance Survival from 2016 to 2020. Disability weights based on cerebral performance category scores, an outcome measure of neurologic function, were used to estimate years lived with disability . Data were reported as total, mean, and rate per 100 000 individuals, and were compared with the leading causes of pediatric DALY in the United States published by the Global Burden of Disease study for 2019. Totally 11 177 OHCA met the study inclusion criteria. A modest increase in total OHCA DALY in the United States was observed from 407 500 (years of life lost = 407 435 and years lived with disability =65) in 2016 to 415 113 (years of life lost = 415 055 and years lived with disability =58) in 2020. The DALY rate increased from 553.3 per 100 000 individuals in 2016 to 568.3 per 100 000 individuals in 2020. For 2019, OHCA was the 10th leading cause of pediatric DALY lost behind neonatal disorders, injuries, mental disorders, premature birth, musculoskeletal disorders, congenital birth defects, skin diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and asthma. Nontraumatic OHCA is one of the top 10 leading causes of annual pediatric DALY lost in the United States.

A Description of the Statistical Methods for the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study

Diarrheal diseases remain a health threat to children in low- and middle-income countries. The Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) study was a 36-month, prospective, matched case-control study designed to estimate the etiology, incidence, and adverse clinical consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. VIDA was conducted following rotavirus vaccine introduction at 3 censused sites in sub-Saharan Africa that participated in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) ∼10 years earlier. We describe the study design and statistical methods of VIDA and where they differ from GEMS. We aimed to enroll 8-9 MSD cases every 2 weeks from sentinel health centers in 3 age strata (0-11, 12-23, 24-59 months) and 1 to 3 controls matched by age, sex, date of case enrollment, and village. Clinical, epidemiological, and anthropometric data were collected at enrollment and ∼60 days later. A stool specimen collected at enrollment was analyzed by both conventional methods and quantitative PCR for enteric pathogens. For the matched case-control study, we estimated the population-based, pathogen-specific attributable fraction (AF) and attributable incidence adjusted for age, site, and other pathogens, and identified episodes attributable to a specific pathogen for additional analyses. A prospective cohort study nested within the original matched case-control study allowed assessment of (1) the association between potential risk factors and outcomes other than MSD status and (2) the impact of MSD on linear growth. GEMS and VIDA together comprise the largest and most comprehensive assessment of MSD conducted to date in sub-Saharan Africa populations at highest risk for morbidity and mortality from diarrhea. The statistical methods used in VIDA have endeavored to maximize the use of available data to produce more robust estimates of the pathogen-specific disease burden that might be prevented by effective interventions.

Pooled prevalence of depressive symptoms among medical students: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BackgroundThe methodological choice of aggregated estimates for meta-analysis may be notable for some common drawbacks, including variations in the cut-off values of depression, and lower statistical power for analyzing the associated factors. The study aimed to refine the precision of previous findings on the prevalence of depressive symptoms among medical students, through gathering individual participant data (IPD) as identified from our previous reviews.Material and methodsIn the present study, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, WanFang, Scielo and LILACS to identify published systematic reviews and meta-analyses up to March 2018, then individual data was requested for further analysis (PROSPERO registration: CRD42018091917). The participants’ age, sex, year of study, scores for depressive symptoms, and other predictor variables were requested. To pool the prevalence from the included studies, random-effects model (two-step method) was used. Multiple linear regression was used to examine the associated factors on the depression z-scores (one-step method).ResultsOf the 249 studies, the datasets of 34 studies were included. The crude prevalence was 19.4% (95% CI: 18.8%, 19.9%) by one-step method and the pooled prevalence was 18.1% (95% CI: 14.1%, 22.1%) by two-step method. Multiple linear regression revealed that being a female, older age, and senior year of study were significantly associated with the z-score.ConclusionThe pooled prevalence of depressive symptoms from the Individual Participant Data (IPD) meta-analysis was lower than the previous meta-analyses using aggregated data. Age, sex, and year of study were significantly associated with the depression z-score. IPD meta-analysis may provide a more accurate estimation of disease burden, and allow verification of associated factors.

Overcoming relapse: prophylactic or pre-emptive use of azacitidine or FLT3 inhibitors after allogeneic transplantation for AML or MDS.

Relapse remains the most critical obstacle in treatment by allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Non-relapse mortality has improved annually, but relapse mortality remains high. Post-transplant maintenance treatment, such as hypomethylating agents and FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) inhibitors, has been investigated for decades as a means of preventing disease relapse after HSCT. Other factors besides the relapse tendency of the primary disease that can affect the transition of estimated disease burden in patients undergoing HSCT are disease status at HSCT (non-remission, remission with minimal/measurable residual disease (MRD), and remission without MRD) and conditioning regimen intensity. Optimal selection of patients at high risk for relapse who can tolerate a long duration of therapy is pivotal for successful post-transplant maintenance therapy. In this review, we provide an overview of current progress in research on post-transplant maintenance treatment using azacitidine or FLT3 inhibitors for preventing disease relapse after HSCT for AML or MDS, and discuss the future outlook in this area.

In Patients Hospitalized for Community-Acquired Pneumonia, SARS-CoV-2 Is Associated with Worse Clinical Outcomes When Compared to Influenza.

SARS-CoV-2 and influenza are primary causes of viral community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Both pathogens have exhibited high transmissibility and are recognized causes of pandemics. Controversy still exists regarding the clinical outcomes between patients hospitalized with CAP due to these viruses. This secondary analysis identified patients with either influenza or SARS-CoV-2 infections from three cohorts of patients hospitalized for CAP. Clinical outcomes between patients with CAP due to influenza or due to SARS-CoV-2 were evaluated. Primary outcomes included length of stay and in-hospital mortality. To account for population differences between cohorts, each case of influenza CAP was matched to two controls with SARS-CoV-2 CAP. Matching criteria included sex, age, and nursing home residency. Stratified cox-proportional hazards regression or conditional logistic regression were used where appropriate. A total of 259 patients with influenza CAP were matched to two controls with SARS-CoV-2 CAP, totaling to 518 controls. Patients with SARS-CoV-2 CAP were 2.23 times more likely to remain hospitalized at any point in time (95% confidence interval: 1.77-2.80), and had 3.84 times higher odds of dying in-hospital (95% confidence interval: 1.91-7.76) when compared to patients with influenza CAP. After matching and adjusting for confounding variables, patients admitted with SARS-CoV-2 CAP had consistently worse outcomes in comparison to their influenza CAP counterparts. This information can help clinicians decide on the level of care needed for patients with confirmed infections due to these pathogens. Additionally, estimates of disease burden can inform individuals at-risk for poor clinical outcomes, and further highlight the importance of effective preventative strategies.

Estimates of disease burden caused by foodborne pathogens in contaminated dairy products in Rwanda

BackgroundThe Girinka program in Rwanda has contributed to an increase in milk production, as well as to reduced malnutrition and increased incomes. But dairy products can be hazardous to health, potentially transmitting diseases such as bovine brucellosis, tuberculosis, and cause diarrhea. We analyzed the burden of foodborne disease due to consumption of raw milk and other dairy products in Rwanda to support the development of policy options for the improvement of the quality and safety of milk.MethodsDisease burden data for five pathogens (Campylobacter spp., nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Cryptosporidium spp., Brucella spp., and Mycobacterium bovis) were extracted from the 2010 WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) database and merged with data of the proportion of foodborne disease attributable to consuming dairy products from FERG and a separately published Structured Expert Elicitation study to generate estimates of the uncertainty distributions of the disease burden by Monte Carlo simulation.ResultsAccording to WHO, the foodborne disease burden (all foods) of these five pathogens in Rwanda in 2010 was like or lower than in the Africa E subregion as defined by FERG. There were 57,500 illnesses occurring in Rwanda owing to consumption of dairy products, 55 deaths and 3,870 Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) causing a cost-of-illness of $3.2 million. 44% of the burden (in DALYs) was attributed to drinking raw milk and sizeable proportions were also attributed to traditionally (16–23%) or industrially (6–22%) fermented milk. More recent data are not available, but the burden (in DALYs) of tuberculosis and diarrheal disease by all causes in Rwanda has declined between 2010 and 2019 by 33% and 46%, respectively.ConclusionThis is the first study examining the WHO estimates of the burden of foodborne disease on a national level in Rwanda. Transitioning from consuming raw to processed milk (fermented, heat treated or otherwise) may prevent a considerable disease burden and cost-of-illness, but the full benefits will only be achieved if there is a simultaneous improvement of pathogen inactivation during processing, and prevention of recontamination of processed products.

The natural history of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Stages of tuberculosis disease can be delineated by radiology, microbiology, and symptoms, but transitions between these stages remain unclear. In a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of individuals with untreated tuberculosis who underwent follow-up (34 cohorts from 24 studies, with a combined sample of 139 063), we aimed to quantify progression and regression across the tuberculosis disease spectrum by extracting summary estimates to align with disease transitions in a conceptual framework of the natural history of tuberculosis. Progression from microbiologically negative to positive disease (based on smear or culture tests) in participants with baseline radiographic evidence of tuberculosis occurred at an annualised rate of 10% (95% CI 6·2-13·3) in those with chest x-rays suggestive of active tuberculosis, and at a rate of 1% (0·3-1·8) in those with chest x-ray changes suggestive of inactive tuberculosis. Reversion from microbiologically positive to undetectable disease in prospective cohorts occurred at an annualised rate of 12% (6·8-18·0). A better understanding of the natural history of pulmonary tuberculosis, including the risk of progression in relation to radiological findings, could improve estimates of the global disease burden and inform the development of clinical guidelines and policies for treatment and prevention.

Race and Ethnicity Reporting and Representation in Pediatric Clinical Trials.

Representative enrollment of racial and ethnic minoritized populations in biomedical research ensures the generalizability of results and equitable access to novel therapies. Previous studies on pediatric clinical trial diversity are limited to subsets of journals or disciplines. We aimed to evaluate race and ethnicity reporting and representation in all US pediatric clinical trials on ClinicalTrials.gov. We performed a cross-sectional study of US-based clinical trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov that enrolled participants aged <18 years old between October 2007 and March 2020. We used descriptive statistics, compound annual growth rates, and multivariable logistic regression for data analysis. Estimates of US population statistics and disease burden were calculated with the US Census, Kids' Inpatient Database, and National Survey of Children's Health. Among 1183 trials encompassing 405 376 participants, race and ethnicity reporting significantly increased from 27% in 2007 to 87% in 2018 (P < .001). The median proportional enrollment of Asian American children was 0.6% (interquartile range [IQR], 0%-3.7%); American Indian, 0% (IQR, 0%-0%); Black, 12% (IQR, 2.9%-28.4%); Hispanic, 7.1% (IQR, 0%-18.6%); and white 66.4% (IQR, 41.5%-81.6%). Asian American, Black, and Hispanic participants were underrepresented relative to US population demographics. Compared with expected proportions based on disease prevalence and hospitalizations, Asian American and Hispanic participants were most consistently underrepresented across diagnoses. While race and ethnicity reporting in pediatric clinical trials has improved, the representative enrollment of minoritized participants remains an ongoing challenge. Evidence-based and policy solutions are needed to address these disparities to advance biomedical innovation for all children.

The effects of exposure to solar radiation on human health

This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) evaluates the effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation on human health within the context of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments. We assess work published since our last comprehensive assessment in 2018. Over the last four years gains have been made in knowledge of the links between sun exposure and health outcomes, mechanisms, and estimates of disease burden, including economic impacts. Of particular note, there is new information about the way in which exposure to UV radiation modulates the immune system, causing both harms and benefits for health. The burden of skin cancer remains high, with many lives lost to melanoma and many more people treated for keratinocyte cancer, but it has been estimated that the Montreal Protocol will prevent 11 million cases of melanoma and 432 million cases of keratinocyte cancer that would otherwise have occurred in the United States in people born between 1890 and 2100. While the incidence of skin cancer continues to rise, rates have stabilised in younger populations in some countries. Mortality has also plateaued, partly due to the use of systemic therapies for advanced disease. However, these therapies are very expensive, contributing to the extremely high economic burden of skin cancer, and emphasising the importance and comparative cost-effectiveness of prevention. Photodermatoses, inflammatory skin conditions induced by exposure to UV radiation, can have a marked detrimental impact on the quality of life of sufferers. More information is emerging about their potential link with commonly used drugs, particularly anti-hypertensives. The eyes are also harmed by over-exposure to UV radiation. The incidence of cataract and pterygium is continuing to rise, and there is now evidence of a link between intraocular melanoma and sun exposure. It has been estimated that the Montreal Protocol will prevent 63 million cases of cataract that would otherwise have occurred in the United States in people born between 1890 and 2100. Despite the clearly established harms, exposure to UV radiation also has benefits for human health. While the best recognised benefit is production of vitamin D, beneficial effects mediated by factors other than vitamin D are emerging. For both sun exposure and vitamin D, there is increasingly convincing evidence of a positive role in diseases related to immune function, including both autoimmune diseases and infection. With its influence on the intensity of UV radiation and global warming, the Montreal Protocol has, and will have, both direct and indirect effects on human health, potentially changing the balance of the risks and benefits of spending time outdoors.Graphical abstract

The burden of gastrointestinal diseases in Japan, 1990-2019, and projections for 2035.

Disease burden estimation allows clinicians and policymakers to plan for future healthcare needs. Although advances have been made in gastroenterology, as Japan has an aging population, disease burden assessment is important. We aimed to report gastrointestinal disease burden in Japan since 1990 and project changes through to 2035. This descriptive study examined the crude and age-standardized rates of prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 22 gastrointestinal diseases between 1990 and 2019. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. We calculated the expected disease burden of gastrointestinal diseases by 2035 using an autoregressive integrated moving average. Since 1990, cancer has accounted for most gastrointestinal disease-related causes of mortality and DALYs in Japan (77.1% and 71.2% in 1990, 79.2% and 73.7% in 2019, respectively). Although cancer-associated age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs have shown a decreasing trend, the crude rates have increased, suggesting that an aging society has a significant impact on the disease burden in Japan. Therefore, the overall gastrointestinal disease burden is expected to increase by 2035. Noncancerous chronic diseases with a high burden included cirrhosis, biliary disease, ileus, gastroesophageal reflux disorder, hernia, inflammatory bowel disease, enteric infections, and vascular intestinal disorders. In cirrhosis, the DALYs for hepatitis C decreased and the prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis increased. In the super-aging Japanese society, the burden of gastrointestinal diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. Colorectal, gastric, pancreatic, and liver cancers are the focus of early detection and treatment.