AbstractThe use of renewable fuels has emerged as an important method for reducing fossil‐fuel consumption. Different pathway technologies can lead to different fuel products. The feasibility of many such pathways has been analyzed with mixed results but new technologies are being developed continuously. This study uses stochastic analysis to determine the feasibility of producing biofuels from carinata oil using catalytic hydrothermolysis (CH) technology. We perform the analysis with and without government incentive programs. We also address uncertainties in input costs and government incentives. The study analyzes a pioneer greenfield plant. The results show that the mean net present value (NPV) without government incentives is −$924.4 million. Ninety percent of the simulated NPV is between −$1040 million and −$810 million, which indicates a 100% probability of loss. The mean breakeven price of jet fuel is $4.72 gal–1. With government incentives including Renewable Identification Number (RIN) and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), the mean NPV is $62.3, and the probability of loss is reduced to 21%, which makes the process much more financially feasible. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd