Bowland Shale Research Articles

About this title - The Bowland Shale Formation, UK: Processes and Resources

This volume showcases recent geological, geophysical and geochemical research on the UK Mississippian Bowland Shale Formation. Here, the Bowland Shale and equivalent units are described and interpreted in terms of sedimentary, geochemical, and mechanical properties and processes, basin-forming events, hydrocarbon prospectivity, mineralization, and heat and fluid flow in the subsurface.

An introduction to the Bowland Shale Formation, UK: processes and resources

Abstract This volume showcases recent geological, geophysical and geochemical research on the Carboniferous Bowland Shale Formation. The Bowland Shale is a relatively thick and extensive Palaeozoic black shale unit with a long history of debate and controversy in the UK. The Bowland Shale is proven in many of the key Carboniferous basins in the Midlands, northern England and North Wales, and represents a significant, near-continuous temporal record spanning 16 Myr including the important mid-Carboniferous boundary (Mississippian–Pennsylvanian). Since the first geological surveys in the late nineteenth century, the Bowland Shale has been of interest for a variety of reasons, including the search for Irish-type Pb–Zn base metal mineral deposits, and as a source rock in conventional hydrocarbon systems. In the mid-2000s, attention turned to the Bowland Shale as a target for unconventional hydrocarbon extraction, shale gas, following success in the USA. This placed the Bowland Shale at the centre of a series of interconnected controversies and debates from the local to national scale. The geological credibility of the purported shale gas resource in the UK was – and continues to be – highly contentious. This volume contributes to a more updated view of the Bowland Shale, covering topics such as sedimentary, geochemical and physical properties and processes, basin-forming events, hydrocarbon prospectivity, mineralization and heat and fluid flow in the subsurface. The volume also includes a field guide to some of the key localities in the UK. With the benefit of hindsight offered by the latest generation of research, the early regional shale gas assessments failed to attach sufficient weight to the compositional heterogeneity, structural complexity, compartmentalization and highly variable exhumation, erosion and palaeo-heat flow history of the Bowland Shale. The following topics are identified as promising avenues for future research beyond shale gas: (1) the role of the Bowland Shale in the context of mineral systems; (2) the role of the Bowland Shale as a cap rock in the Lower Carboniferous limestone geothermal play and potentially as an analogue of CO 2 or radioactive waste storage in the UK; and (3) pathways and mechanisms for weathering, alteration and trace element release from the Bowland Shale into the surface and/or subsurface environment.

A review of the Carboniferous shale gas potential of northern England: a data-based analysis of why it won't work

Abstract The recent shale gas revolution originated in the USA in the late 1990s with the exploration of the Carboniferous Barnett Shale in Texas. Success in a number of additional basins in North America, such as the Marcellus, Eagle Ford and Bakken basins, stimulated a search for similar opportunities elsewhere around the world. Among the shales and basins targeted by industry was the Carboniferous Bowland Shale (and equivalents) in northern England. The initial premise that the Barnett Shale represented an excellent analogue for the Bowland Shale led to over-optimistic reserve estimates that have since been shown to be largely incorrect. On the basis of visual inspection of wellbore cores, the Carboniferous Barnett and Bowland shales appear to be very similar. Unfortunately, it is there that the similarity ends. Research carried out for the UK Unconventional Hydrocarbons project has highlighted important differences adversely impacting prospectivity. These can be summarized as basin type/continuity and structural complexity. The total organic carbon, maturity, mineralogy and thickness of the Bowland Shale and equivalents are broadly similar to the successful US examples. Our conclusion is that the Bowland Shale in the UK does not represent a technically significant resource, and in hindsight did not merit the considerable industry and media attention that has been associated with it. One key learning is that fundamental research based on heritage data and modern analytical and modelling techniques should have preceded drilling and fracking operations in northern England.

The Bowland Shale Formation in the Blacon Basin: syngenetic processes, stacking patterns and heat productivity

Abstract We conducted a high-resolution multi-disciplinary analysis of two core sections in the borehole Ellesmere Port-1, Cheshire, UK. Biostratigraphic analysis indicates that the core sections are Kinderscoutian and late Arnsbergian–Chokierian in age, respectively. Both cores are assigned to the Bowland Shale Formation (Holywell Shale). Coupled core scan and discrete geochemical analysis enables interpretation of syngenetic processes at a high stratigraphic resolution. Both cores exhibit the classic cyclicity of limestones, calcareous to non-calcareous mudstones and siltstones, interpreted to represent sediment deposition during fourth-order sea-level fluctuation. Machine learning of the well log data coupled to the core scan data enabled prediction of the key lithofacies through the entire Bowland Shale interval in Ellesmere Port-1. The machine predictions show that the Bowland Shale is interfingered with three turbiditic leaves of the Cefn-y-Fedw Sandstone Formation and contains at least 12 complete fourth-order cycles. The Bowland Shale exhibits high radiogenic heat productivity in comparison with other sedimentary rocks, due primarily to relative U enrichment under intermittently euxinic conditions. Thermal modelling, however, shows that the radiogenic heat productivity of the Bowland Shale contributes a negligible source of additional heat at the scale of hundreds of metres.

The Bowland Shale Formation in the Blacon Basin: palaeoecology and resource potential

Abstract We evaluated the unconventional hydrocarbon potential of the Holywell Shale Formation, a lateral equivalent of the Bowland Shale Formation deposited in the Blacon Basin. Two cores with Arnsbergian–Chokierian and Kinderscoutian (Namurian, Late Mississippian–Early Pennsylvanian) ages from the Ellesmere Port 1 borehole were sampled for palynological, stable isotope, Rock-Eval 6 pyrolysis and ichnofacies analyses. The study was designed to provide boundary conditions for parameters that are under-represented in the public domain and hamper accurate resource assessments: thermal maturity (through mean random vitrinite reflectance, R r ), present-day organic matter content, kerogen type, original hydrogen index and original organic matter content. Our results show that the Arnsbergian Core 2 has been buried to a depth equivalent to the bottom of the oil window to the top of the gas window (% R r = 1.15%–1.29%). The Kinderscoutian Core 1 is too immature to have generated any natural gas (% R r = 0.91–1.03%). Furthermore, kerogen typing and ichnofacies analysis show that the Bowland Shale Formation is very heterogeneous, with organic matter originating from terrestrial and marine sources. Five palynofacies assemblages are described that range in basin setting from proximal and oxic to distal and anoxic with evidence of episodic connections to the open ocean. The combination of heterogeneity and low thermal maturity restricts the thickness of the Bowland Shale Formation in the Blacon Basin that is prospective for unconventional hydrocarbons. Our results show that these Carboniferous mudstones should not be treated as uniform units with uniform composition and maturity in basin modelling and resource estimates. This undoubtedly has repercussions for future exploration because the contrasting composition and density of the materials making up the Bowland Shale Formation may complicate extraction, while the thermal maturity window significantly narrows the prospective interval.

Quantifying the variability in fault density across the UK Bowland Shale with implications for induced seismicity hazard

To date, hydraulic fracturing for shale gas extraction has been used at three wells in the UK. In each case, the resulting microseismicity exceeded the UK’s red-light threshold of magnitude 0.5. The three wells all targeted the Bowland Shale Formation, and all were located within close proximity of each other on the Fylde Peninsula in west Lancashire. Observations of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity (HF-IS) elsewhere shows that the prevalence of induced seismicity is highly spatially variable. Hence, it is by no means clear whether hydraulic fracturing elsewhere in the Bowland Shale would be likely to generate seismicity at similar levels. In this study we examine the geological and geomechanical conditions across the Bowland Shale with respect to their potential controls on induced seismicity. The abundance of pre-existing faults is likely to play an important control on the generation of HF-IS. We use an automated fault detection algorithm to map faults within a selection of 3D reflection seismic datasets across the Bowland Shale play. For the identified faults, we compute the effective stresses acting on these structures in order to identify whether they are likely to be critically stressed. We find that the Bowland Shale within the Fylde Peninsula contains a significant number of critically stressed faults. However, there is significant variation in the density of critically stressed faults across the play, with up to an order of magnitude reduction in fault density from the west (i.e., the Fylde Peninsula) to the east. We use these observations to inform a seismic hazard model for proposed hydraulic fracturing in areas to the east of the Bowland Shale play. We find that the occurrence of felt seismic events cannot be precluded, however their likelihood of occurring is reduced.

Cross-basin Mo and U analysis of the Upper Mississippian Bowland Shale, UK

Abstract The Bowland sub-basin is a target for hydrocarbon exploration, but to a large extent it remains unexplored. To determine the economic potential of the Bowland sub-basin, it is important to identify the oceanographic processes involved in the deposition of the Bowland Shale Formation in the Late Mississippian ( c. 330 Ma). Palaeoceanographic processes are known to be a major control on the development of hydrocarbon source rocks. This study investigates core (Preese Hall-1 and Becconsall-1Z) materials from the Upper Bowland Shale, and makes a comparison with previously published data (outcrop Hind Clough), all from the Bowland sub-basin, Lancashire, UK. The sedimentology and geochemistry of this formation were determined via a multi-technique approach including X-ray fluorescence, sedimentology, gamma-ray spectra, X-ray diffraction and Rock-Eval pyrolysis. Key trace metal abundances and enrichment factors were used to assess sediment provenance and to determine the bottom-water redox conditions during the deposition of the Upper Bowland Shale. Our results support interpretations of contemporaneous anoxia developing in bottom waters in at least three sites in the Bowland sub-basin. In a comparison with the Fort Worth Basin (Barnett Shale, USA), the Bowland sub-basin was apparently less restricted and deposited under a much higher mean sediment accumulation rate. Knowledge from this study will improve future resource estimates of the Bowland Shale Formation, and challenge the early assumptions that the Barnett Shale is an analogue of the Bowland Shale.

Red-light thresholds for induced seismicity in the UK

Induced earthquakes pose a serious hurdle to subsurface energy development. Concerns about induced seismicity led to terminal public opposition of hydraulic fracturing in the UK. Traffic light protocols (TLPs) are typically used to manage these risks, with the red-light designed as the last-possible stopping-point before exceeding a risk tolerance. We simulate trailing earthquake scenarios for the UK, focusing on three risk metrics: nuisance, damage, and local personal risk (LPR) – the likelihood of building collapse fatality for an individual. The severity of these risks can spatially vary (by orders-of-magnitude), depending on exposure. Estimated risks from the Preston New Road earthquakes are used to calibrate our UK earthquake risk tolerances, which we find to be comparable to Albertan (Canadian) tolerances. We find that nuisance and damage concerns supersede those from fatality and that the safest regions for Bowland Shale development would be along the east coast. A retrospective comparison of our TLP result with the Preston New Road case highlights the importance of red-light thresholds that adapt to new information. Overall, our findings provide recommendations for red-light thresholds (ML 2-2.5) and proactive management of induced seismicity – regardless of anthropogenic source.

Infrared spectroscopy and chemometric modelling of organic carbon measured by Rock-Eval pyrolysis of UK shale rock

Abstract Shale rock core from the Bowland Shale Formation, UK, was analysed in the laboratory using Rock-Eval pyrolysis and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). These methods are used to characterize the organic constituents of soil and rock. This research is a proof-of-concept study to investigate whether regression models developed using FTIR and Rock-Eval data for the same length of core can be used to estimate selected Rock-Eval parameters. The accuracy of the regression models was assessed using statistical methods, the results of which were used to choose preferred models for each Rock-Eval parameter. The models produced were shown to have an acceptable level of uncertainty for total organic carbon and S1, S2 and S3 outputs, which led us to conclude that these are potentially suitable for estimating unknown down-core Rock-Eval parameter values. Conversely, the model for the temperature of the maximum rate of hydrocarbon generation ( T max ) had higher variability in the cross-validation data above the acceptable level of uncertainty, which could lead to erroneous estimates. Down-core interpolations of selected Rock-Eval parameters could be practically achieved by modelling FTIR data by maintaining standard sample frequencies for Rock-Eval while supplementing with higher frequencies for FTIR and chemometric analysis.

Calibration of redox thresholds in black shale: Insight from a stratified Mississippian basin with warm saline bottom waters

Depositional models for black shale formation rely on a detailed understanding of redox conditions and how they relate to basin development. Here, we calibrate multiple redox proxies (Fe speciation, U and Mo systematics, and pyrite framboid distributions) in the Bowland Shale, a major hydrocarbon unit in the Mississippian basin of northern England, and develop a depositional model for black shale deposition in basins adjacent to extensive carbonate platforms. The transition from deep ramp carbonates to basinal mudrocks initially occurred under oxic conditions before anoxic conditions began to expand from basin-center locations. By the end of Bowland Shale deposition, ∼10 m.y. later, black shale deposition extended from the basin, where platform-edge carbonates were deposited, into shallow-water settings. By this stage, euxinic conditions were widespread throughout the Bowland Shale. The prolonged persistence of euxinia during younger Bowland Shale deposition, and the sharp transition to fully oxygenated facies at the basin margin, suggest there was a well-developed water-column pycnocline. Black shale development in silled basins is traditionally interpreted to form beneath a halocline with a positive water balance caused by freshwater run-off (estuarine circulation). This model is not considered appropriate in this case. Bowland Shale deposition was terminated by the onset of turbidite deposition supplied by a major deltaic system; but for most of its history, the basin was surrounded by carbonate platforms that are unlikely to have experienced brackish conditions. The encroachment of the clastic system saw the rapid improvement of basinal oxygenation in the uppermost Bowland Shale, and even minor turbidite sandstones within the black shales coincided with a weakening in the intensity of euxinia, which suggests that fresher, sediment-laden waters flushed out and oxygenated the basin. We therefore suggest a warm saline bottom-water model for black shale deposition, with basinal waters generated on the adjacent carbonate platforms due to evaporation. Such a scenario is likely more broadly applicable to basinal black shales that developed adjacent to shallow-water carbonate successions.

Spatial distribution of mineral development in Carboniferous Bowland Shale, UK at 3D micro- to nano- scales

Determination of mineral texture and diagenetic features in mudstones is crucial to reveal the history of their pore systems and provides key information to predict their future sealing ability, reactivity and storage capacity for sequestered CO2, hydrogen storage or nuclear waste disposal. To understand the spatial transport and storage of fluids, it is necessary to map the distribution of minerals and fractures in three dimensions (3D). This study proposes a novel, multi-scale three-dimensional (3D) imaging method, i.e., a combination of synchrotron- sourced micro- x-ray tomography and lab- sourced nano-tomography, to investigate the sedimentology and diagenetic features of the Bowland Shale, one of the most volumetrically important mudstone-dominated systems in the UK. Diagenetic minerals have been identified and characterised, including pyrite, calcite, kaolinite, illite, chlorite, dolomite, ankerite and authigenic quartz (micro-sized quartz and quartz overgrowths). Multi-scale 3D images provide detailed information about dolomite-ankerite zonation and carbonate dissolution pores. These features cannot be observed or quantified by conventional 2D methods, and they have not been reported in this subject area before. Using these results, potential reactions during carbon storage and other subsurface storage applications are predicted.

Trace element release from Bowland Shale into spring water in Lancashire

Abstract A sulfurous spring emerges at an outcrop of Bowland Shale Formation on Crimpton Brook, Lancashire. The spring is marked by the precipitation of white and yellow jarosite. Comparable light sulfur isotope compositions suggest that the jarosite was derived from surface oxidation of pyritic shale. The shale contains anomalous concentrations of selenium and other trace elements, in common with other exposures of the Bowland Shale Formation in the north of England. The selenium is resident in the pyrite, and was released during oxidation and incorporated into the jarosite in Crimpton Brook. The small scale of the water flow at the site and the remote situation pose no environmental problem, but the data exemplify the potential danger of pyrite weathering into groundwater on a larger scale.

New microbiological insights from the Bowland shale highlight heterogeneity of the hydraulically fractured shale microbiome

BackgroundHydraulically fractured shales offer a window into the deep biosphere, where hydraulic fracturing creates new microbial ecosystems kilometers beneath the surface of the Earth. Studying the microbial communities from flowback fluids that are assumed to inhabit these environments provides insights into their ecophysiology, and in particular their ability to survive in these extreme environments as well as their influence on site operation e.g. via problematic biofouling processes and/or biocorrosion. Over the past decade, research on fractured shale microbiology has focused on wells in North America, with a few additional reported studies conducted in China. To extend the knowledge in this area, we characterized the geochemistry and microbial ecology of two exploratory shale gas wells in the Bowland Shale, UK. We then employed a meta-analysis approach to compare geochemical and 16S rRNA gene sequencing data from our study site with previously published research from geographically distinct formations spanning China, Canada and the USA.ResultsOur findings revealed that fluids recovered from exploratory wells in the Bowland are characterized by moderate salinity and high microbial diversity. The microbial community was dominated by lineages known to degrade hydrocarbons, including members of Shewanellaceae, Marinobacteraceae, Halomonadaceae and Pseudomonadaceae. Moreover, UK fractured shale communities lacked the usually dominant Halanaerobium lineages. From our meta-analysis, we infer that chloride concentrations play a dominant role in controlling microbial community composition. Spatio-temporal trends were also apparent, with different shale formations giving rise to communities of distinct diversity and composition.ConclusionsThese findings highlight an unexpected level of compositional heterogeneity across fractured shale formations, which is not only relevant to inform management practices but also provides insight into the ability of diverse microbial consortia to tolerate the extreme conditions characteristic of the engineered deep subsurface.

Guide to key Bowland Shale Formation outcrop localities in the Craven and Edale basins

Abstract This is a guide to the key exposures of the Bowland Shale Formation present within the Craven and Edale basins of England, providing contrasting settings from respectively the northern and southern parts of the Craven Group extent. It provides a description of the evolution of the deposition of the hemipelagic mudstone-dominated components of the Craven Group during the Visean to early Namurian (Mississippian to early Pennsylvanian). It explains the significance of the chosen localities in understanding the development of the Bowland Shale Formation and gives details on the sections visible at the time of compilation, providing useful guidance for field visits.

Thermal evolution and resources of the Bowland Basin (NW England) from apatite fission-track analyses and multidimensional basin modelling

Abstract Once highlighted for having significant shale gas resource potential, the Bowland Basin has been at the centre of both scientific and political controversy over the last decade. Previous shale gas resource estimates range from 10 3 to 10 1 TCF. Repeated events of induced seismicity following hydraulic fracturing operations led to an indefinite government moratorium and abandonment of operations across the mainland UK. We use apatite fission-track analyses to investigate the magnitude and timing of post-Triassic uplift and exhumation. Results indicate that maximum palaeotemperatures of 90–100°C were reached in the stratigraphically younger Sherwood Sandstone. We combine palaeotemperature predictions to constrain palaeo heat flow and erosion in regional basin models for the first time. Our results indicate variable maximum Late Cretaceous palaeo heat flow values of 62.5–80 mW m −2 and the removal of 800–1500 m of post-Triassic strata at wells across the basin. Regional 2D basin modelling indicates a gas-in-place estimate of 131 ± 64 TCF for the Bowland Shale. This reduces to a resource potential of 13.1 ± 6.4 TCF, assuming a recovery factor of 10%. These values are significantly lower than previous resource estimates and reflect the highly complex nature of the Bowland Basin and relatively unknown history of post-Triassic uplift, exhumation and erosion.

EVALUATION OF SHALE GAS EXPLORATION BY MICROSTRUCTURE BEHAVIOR AND SHALE PERMEABILITY BASED ON FRACTAL THEORY AND UNDER MULTI-FIELD EFFECTS

The key to shale gas exploration is the characterization of gas migration under the combination of multiple factors. To address the long-standing energy challenge of rapidly and accurately quantifying the behavior of natural fractures and matrix pores in shale at an engineering scale in interaction with gas migration. This study proposes an interdisciplinary model for shale gas extraction by adopting fractal theory. Five innovative microstructural parameters are developed to characterize the size and scale of natural matrix pores/fractures in shale, so as to investigate the contributions of fractal distributed pores and fractal power-law distributed fractures to shale gas extraction. The present results of the proposed model are consistent with the exploitation state of the UK Bowland Shale #114 well. The evolution of the shale microstructure will lead to changes in gas migration behavior throughout the reservoir and in turn affect shale stress, temperature and gas adsorption–desorption effect, and finally have a significant impact on permeability. It is found that in the present analysis of the entire Bowland Shale, the overall permeability changes by 10.8% with the evolution of fractal distributed pores and by 41.3% with the evolution of fractal power-law fractures. This work provides a new approach for rapidly exploring the behavior of shale fractures and matrix pores at engineering scales. This work also offers a new and practical baseline for shale gas extraction assessment and fossil energy management.

Pore structure–transport relationships in the Bowland Shale

Abstract Shale rocks are highly structurally and chemically heterogeneous, such that the pore structure–transport relationship is complex. Shales typically have porosity over many length-scales from the molecular up to macroscopic fractures. This work utilizes gas overcondensation to probe pore sizes from micropores to very large macropores all in the same experiment without the potential for damage due to high pressures when conducting mercury porosimetry. Indeed, the Bowland Shale samples studied here are generally inaccessible to mercury intrusion. The gas overcondensation method can also be augmented using scanning loops to assess the spatial juxtaposition of very different pore sizes, and this has been used to determine that some large macropores are shielded by pore necks less than 4 nm in size in the Bowland Shale. In addition, the adsorption calorimetry method has been used to assess the accessibility of the void space. It has been found that mass transport is limited by particular ‘hour-glass’-like pore necks that fill at quite low saturation, and thus present a barrier to molecular migration. The shielding of macroporosity by narrow necks was particularly significant for the Above Marine Band sample, with lower shielding observed in the Marine Band and Below Marine Band materials.

Speciation of trace elements in the Bowland Shale

Abstract Samples of the Bowland Shale and equivalents in Ireland that represent a range of thermal maturities from the oil window to gas window contain trace elements distributed through multiple residences. The trace element distribution reflects the depositional environment, and influences subsequent element release. Measurements of Se, Cu, As, U and Mo indicate variable retention in loosely bound and strongly bound forms. The trace elements are especially associated with diagenetic pyrite. Shales from Ireland, at higher thermal maturity, have relatively high proportions of loosely bound Se, Cu and As, which may reflect expulsion from the pyrite during recrystallization. The shale samples consistently contain high organic matter contents, reflecting deposition in an anoxic environment. The Se, Mo and U in particular may be bound to organic matter, which may have adverse environmental impacts upon weathering of the shale.

Guar Gum Stimulates Biogenic Sulfide Production in Microbial Communities Derived from UK Fractured Shale Production Fluids.

Shale gas production fluids offer a window into the engineered deep biosphere. Here, for the first time, we report on the geochemistry and microbiology of production fluids from a UK shale gas well in the Bowland shale formation. The composition of input fluids used to fracture this well were comparatively lean, consisting only of water, sand, and polyacrylamide. This formation therefore represents an interesting comparison to previously explored fractured shales in which more additives were used in the input fluids. Here, we combine cultivation and molecular ecology techniques to explore the microbial community composition of hydraulic fracturing production fluids, with a focus on the potential for common viscosity modifiers to stimulate microbial growth and biogenic sulfide production. Production fluids from a Bowland Shale exploratory well were used as inocula in substrate utilization experiments to test the potential for polyacrylamide and guar gum to stimulate microbial metabolism. We identified a consortium of thiosulfate-reducing bacteria capable of utilizing guar gum (but not polyacrylamide), resulting in the production of corrosive and toxic hydrogen sulfide. Results from this study indicate polyacrylamide is less likely than guar gum to stimulate biogenic sulfide production during shale gas extraction and may guide planning of future hydraulic fracturing operations. IMPORTANCE Shale gas exploitation relies on hydraulic fracturing, which often involves a range of chemical additives in the injection fluid. However, relatively little is known about how these additives influence fractured shale microbial communities. This work offers a first look into the microbial community composition of shale gas production fluids obtained from an exploratory well in the Bowland Shale, United Kingdom. It also seeks to establish the impact of two commonly used viscosity modifiers, polyacrylamide and guar gum, on microbial community dynamics and the potential for microbial sulfide production. Not only does this work offer fascinating insights into the engineered deep biosphere, it could also help guide future hydraulic fracturing operations that seek to minimize the risk of biogenic sulfide production, which could reduce efficiency and increase environmental impacts of shale gas extraction.

Bowland Shale well placement strategy – Part 2: Fracture simulations using a 3D geomechanical model and implications for stratigraphic and spatial horizontal well locations

Hydraulic fracture modelling is a key component of a shale reservoir well placement strategy as it provides an indication of the typical lengths and heights of stimulated fractures and of the changes to the stress environment in which these are propagating. However, spatial and stratigraphic variations in the stress and geomechanical properties of shales make accurate modelling a challenging task. For the UK Bowland Shale, stacked horizontal wells targeting multiple stratigraphic intervals could be used to avoid large offset faults in a geologically complex area. However, it is not known how these intervals may respond to hydraulic fracturing and predicting the height and length of hydraulic fractures is necessary in order to assess the likelihood of vertical fracture interference across landing zones or propagation towards major faults. In the case of the former, intervals of high effective stress may be key to containing fractures within their desired target. Using a planar hydraulic fracture simulator, and a 3D geomechanical model incorporating dipping stratigraphy, the issue of predicting hydraulic fracture geometry in the Bowland Shale was assessed through a series of modelling exercises using well Preese Hall-1 and horizontal pseudo-wells. When pre-defined landing zones were targeted, narrow and long transverse fractures around 1 km from the well were simulated. When the simulation design mimicked perforation clusters placed at 12 m intervals along horizontal pseudo-wells, the effects of stress shadowing were acute and resulted in irregular fracture geometries. Furthermore, high effective stress intervals performed efficiently as barriers to vertical hydraulic fracture propagation, reinforcing the feasibility of using stacked production for the Bowland Shale. The modelling results were then used to discuss the possible placement of horizontal wells in a mapped, 100 km2 region around well Preese Hall-1, where up to 13 sites could be positioned, with a horizontal well length of around 1.5 km. Finally, by drawing on a well-established analogue for the Bowland Shale, it was estimated that up to 195 Bcf of gas could be produced from the 13 locations in the area if three stratigraphic intervals are produced from one location.