Belt Road Initiative Research Articles

China's Belt-Road Initiative and Investment Strategies: A Two Pillar Approach to Afghanistan

China's Belt-Road Initiative and Investment Strategies: A Two Pillar Approach to Afghanistan

BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL ORDER

This study contributes to our understanding about Chinese security policy by providing insights into geopolitical upheavals caused by China's expanding global presence. This article discusses structural problems and geopolitical challenges brought on by the Chinese Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Paper claims that BRI may be legitimately understood as being more than merely a system of economic and military security. By promoting domestic stability and influencing countries outside of Asia, BRI really assists Chinese leaders in bridging internal and external challenges. The responsibility for helping to create a peaceful future still primarily rests with the West

AN ISLAMIC PERSPECTIVES, THE CURRENT STATE OF INDONESIA IN THE GLOBALIZATION ERA

Abstract: Countries must be able to compete due to the high global intensity of trade and agreements. As a first step in dealing with this, many countries employ economic concepts that are tailored to their specific circumstances. The goal of this research is to look at the role of Islamic economics in dealing with the onslaught of economic globalization, such as China's Belt Road Initiative (BRI), and multi-sectoral institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. The literature research approach used in this paper is qualitative using literature review method. The results of this study found that the Indonesian government was in the midst of a powerful wave that required strong captains and ships. In other words, the existence of BRI, IMF and World Bank will be a threat if they are not controlled properly. As a result, the government has to divert this funding to productive areas such as agriculture. Furthermore, given China's concentration on Islamic banking, Indonesia may be able to persuade China to involve the Indonesian people in developing its products. Furthermore, the Indonesian government must be able to read every step taken by BRI, IMF, and World Bank so as not to be trapped in debt investment.
 Keywords: Islamic economic, belt road initiative, IMF, worldbank

AT THE STEP OF A DROMEDARY: INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDY TO INTEGRATE CHINESE AND AFRICAN RELATIONS IN ETHIOPIA BEFORE AND AFTER THE COVID-19

Abstract: The author holds that the aim of this project is to study the Chinese presence in Ethiopia, following the path of the last salt caravans from Danakil to Tigray region in a multidisciplinary documentation. The first part of the research was carried out before Covid-19. In the immediate aftermath there was a civil war that is continuing to rage. New research is currently underway in the post Pandemic to document how Covid-19 and the civil war are changing Ethiopia. The current political situation has made the return to Ethiopia complex. There are two main objectives of the research. The first is based on the sociology of work, which allows monitoring the growth of infrastructure built by Chinese workers and the perception of risk of the Ethiopian population of Tigray in the post-pandemic period and civil war. Thanks to the use of GIS (Geographic Information System) some roads created by Chinese companies that worked in the area have been geo-referenced. The second point is to document the life of the Ethiopian and Chinese population, expanding the discourse of gender anthropology, collecting interviews in situ and online in the post-Covid-19 period. The interviews were made to the Ethiopian population of different ages, genders and social classes. The interviews were also obtained from the Chinese side, to understand the development of their work. A remote interview was conducted in November 2022 which showed the current situation and how much the Chinese presence can affect the restoration of peace between Tigray and the central government in Addis Ababa. Official estimates of the number of Chinese in Africa vary widely; on the African continent there are increasingly heterogeneous groups of Chinese migrants, in terms of: language, dialect, class, education and occupation. On the basis of this and a very general state of the art, it was decided to increase the studies of the development of the Belt Road Initiative and of what surrounds the phenomenon. The civil war started in Tigray in 2020 and still ongoing, makes the project constantly evolving. For the realization of this study, interdisciplinary investigation methods were integrated, such as: landscape archeology, work sociology, gender anthropology and ethnography. Keywords— China, Ethiopia, Work Sociology, Gender Anthropology, Belt Road Initiative

Ініціатива Китаю “Один пояс – один шлях” між недбалістю Обами і песимізмом Трампа

Since the inception of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2014, its relations with the United States have entered into a new phase of rivalry and defiance in an eclectic array of political, economic, and security issues and concerns. In examining the BRI factor in US-China relations, this paper juxtaposes the Barak Obama administration’s mild China policy and its cold response toward BRI as well as Donald Trump’s administration’s harsh China policy and its pessimism toward the initiative. In particular by studying and comparing Obama’s presidency (2009–2017) as a Democrat and his approach to the inception of BRI in 2014 by China to that of the Republican candidate and president Trump (2017–2020) we can observe variant approaches, policies, rhetoric and stance on how to deal and respond to it. It then draws on realist and liberal theoretical frameworks, to identify cooperative and confrontational tendencies in US-China relations, thereby offering an assessment on how the US receives BRI. These two variant approaches are significant in understanding the numerous objectives and justifications of internal and external policies on the overall US response to China’s recent growing political, social, and economic clout and influences. This article, therefore, argues that although Obama and Trump have a united voice against BRI, both presidents represent two variant political and party objectives, policies, and approaches towards BRI and China in general.

CHINA & USA IN INDIAN OCEAN REGION - A FRACTIONAL COLLISION COURSE

Thucydides Trap, in case of USA & China collision highway, true or otherwise in an enactment of Belt Road Initiative (BRI), South China Sea clash of interests and Blue versus Red , and Pakistan in a ‘Golden Chair’ dilemma led to a known fact of interacting as well as overarching clash of interests in global world in general and Asia in particular. However, China has become one of the world’s major powers despite all odds of clash of interests against her strategic, geographic and social or economic competitors evidently displayed after the universal Pandemic of Covid. The fast-paced economic development of China was the narrative foreign policy imbued with economic progress across the globe, with benefits for all humanity. In the same context, China has launched Belt and Road Initiative, in response to the USA’s Pivot Asia policy. On the contrary, changing foreign policy roles and their performances have led to conflicting signals, raising concerns about China’s future role in international politics. This paper argues that, though China’s rise may be projected as benign by China itself, however China under Xi Jinping will be an “Economic Giant” aiming to remodel the global order. Visualizing the discourse of its economic over-arching progress, is it really a collision course that has shaped Belt Road Initiative (BRI), South China Sea’s militarization/weaponization in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and alliances of Blue versus Red or a mature Economic Cooperation in a globalized world, really seems far away from clash of interests as displayed during and after Pandemic Crisis. Recent visit of Speaker of USA Representatives, Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, is a test case in strategic dilemma for IOR that proved fractional to crisis.

The effect of political stability, carbon dioxide emission and economic growth on income inequality: evidence from developing, high income and Belt Road initiative countries.

The reduction of income inequality and environmental frailty are important factors which can help achieve sustainable development. In this context, it is important to investigate the nexus between income inequality and carbon dioxide emission by considering the role of political stability. This paper examines the effect of political stability, economic growth, financial development, and carbon dioxide on income inequality in developing countries, high-income countries, and the Belt Road initiative (BRI) countries from 2002 to 2019. By employing a two-step generalized method of moments and panel quantile regression, the findings show that carbon dioxide emission, financial development, and political stability rise income inequality while economic growth significantly reduces income inequality in developing countries. In the case of high-income countries, political stability and carbon dioxide negatively affect income inequality while financial development rise income inequality. In the case of BRI countries, political stability, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission significantly reduce income inequality. Our findings have considerable policy implications regarding reducing income inequality in the sample countries.

The Intersection between China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Indonesia's Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) after Covid-19

In response to the current condition of political and economic conditions in Southeast Asia, this article will elaborate on the intersection between China’s and Indonesia’s foreign policy on two sides, negative and positive intersection by understanding the foreign policy vision of each country's policy. This study tries to explain the intersection of Belt Road Initiative (BRI) by China with Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) of Indonesia by using qualitative methods and collected data from library research. To deepen the understanding of how both states implemented their foreign policy, media analysis and national interest concept are used. The result indicates that Indonesia needs to respond to the foreign policy of China carefully. Moreover, the COVID-19 outbreak has altered the development of events on how the two missions from each country collide. Although every decision Indonesia has made regarding China’s BRI policy will not harm Indonesia’s national interest in the future, Indonesia will still have to tread carefully and imply wise decisions in its foreign policy, especially during the recovery period of COVID-19 pandemic.

Russia–Ukraine crisis: China’s Belt Road Initiative at the crossroads

China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious programme to connect Asia with Europe, Africa, and Latin America via transport networks on land and sea in hopes of advancing economic integration, increasing trade, and stimulating growth. Ukraine occupies a strategic location in the BRI, near the intersection of Europe and Asia, rendering it a potential “gateway to Europe.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having a disruptive effect and poses numerous challenges for the Initiative, as it has affected some of the pillars and overall goals of the BRI. As it stands, however, infrastructure connectivity is being set back by three developments: fewer funding options, less international cooperation, and geopolitical shocks. Second, unimpeded trade via the BRI is being affected as the war causes disruptions to global value chains, weakens free trade, and sharpens food and energy insecurity. But where there are risks, there are also potential favourable circumstances for the BRI, including opportunities for China to get involved in the reconstruction of a war-ravaged Ukraine.

Does Chinese policy banks' overseas lending favor Belt Road Initiative countries?

AbstractThis paper examines how Chinese policy banks responded to China's Belt Road Initiative (BRI) using transaction‐level international syndicated loan data. Employing a difference‐in‐differences (DID) estimation, we show that Chinese policy banks increased aggregate lending (number of loans and loan amounts) to firms from the BRI countries compared to those from the non‐BRI countries after the initiative. This increase was more pronounced among firms along the continental route and in the infrastructure sectors. We also find that Chinese policy banks' loans to the BRI borrowers were associated with reduced spread, lowered collateral requirement, and extended maturity. Moreover, our results suggest that Chinese policy banks gave more support to firms from the BRI countries with weaker economic performance, more fragile institutional quality, and closer political interests. Overall, our study highlights the supportive role played by Chinese policy banks in implementing a national globalization strategy.

The Spillover Effects of Chinese Shocks on the Belt and Road Initiative Economies: New Evidence Using Panel Vector Autoregression

This paper investigates the spillover effects of Chinese real and monetary sector shocks on the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) economies. The study adopted a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) estimation technique to analyse the dynamic propagation of Chinese shocks in the real sector (gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness (OPEN)) and monetary sector (nominal interest rate (NIR)) for a sample of 50 BRI countries from 2000 to 2017. The main results revealed that Chinese income shocks positively spill over to all macroeconomic variables except BRI countries’ consumer price index (CPI). However, the Chinese trade openness shock only has a temporary positive spillover to BRI international trade and a temporary negative spillover on its monetary policy. In addition, the Chinese monetary policy shock has a negative spillover on GDP and a positive spillover on CPI in BRI economies. Chinese shocks, however, do not constitute a significant source of variation in any interest variable. As explained by the Chinese income shock, the BRI interest rate is the highest percentage of variable variation accumulated over time. Further, the highest variation of Chinese trade shock is BRI trade openness, and lastly, the highest variation of Chinese interest rate shock is CPI in BRI economies. The beggar-thy-neighbour effect may dominate the positive trade effect and is a negative impact of the Chinese shocks. Hence, BRI economies should alleviate the adverse shocks since the upcoming rapid growth from the Chinese has disturbed the BRI economies. Our results reveal the importance of Chinese development on BRI partners’ economies and the significance of Chinese shocks in real and monetary sectors in assisting policymakers in designing international and monetary policy for BRI economies.

Trade values predictive model of Southeast Asia under the Belt-Road Initiative

This research aims to quantitatively evaluate the impact that future logistics development projects may have on Southeast Asia’s trade values (import and export) under the Belt-Road Initiative (BRI) scheme with Logistic Performance Indicators (LPIs) as the medium of evaluation. We investigate the multicollinearity effect, which are typically common for logistics performance indicators. The research adopts a model development technique from the Principal Component Regression (PCR) and integrates it to the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to cope with industry and freight logistics practitioner opinions on various logistics infrastructure developments under the BRI scheme. The predictive model to trade activities of South East Asia under the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor will be proposed. Our predicting model will be weighed under the 8 different scenarios existing BRI logistic projects. This research significantly contributes to solution methodology for building a predictive model of logistic indices to trade activities under the multicollinearity effect.

Impact of Belt Road Initiative on Indonesia‘s Oil and Gas Trade

The development of international trade is important to boost an economy. Economic integration is used by Indonesia to increase trade values. Belt Road Initiative (BRI) is a new integration that is usefull for Indonesia. Under BRI, the most frequently traded commdities are oil and gas. However, Indonesia should consider impacts of the integration on the trade of oil and gas. This study using a gravity model aims to analyse impact of BRI on Indonesia’s oil and gas trade and determinant factors in the trade. The result of this study shows that Indonesia get a trade diversion from BRI. Determinant factors influencing on Indonesia’s trade are GDP, distance, price and consumption. Indonesia should take more benefits of energy sectors particularly oil and gas from BRI.

Understanding China’s Geoeconomic Maneuver Against Ethiopia Through an Energy Geopolitical Perspective

Departing from the need for energy supply which increases every year, China's foreign policy through the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) is trying to maneuver against areas in the world, including Africa. The African region is one of the regions in that China has given various kinds of assistance to trigger economic growth for countries in the region. Where one of the countries that China is aiming for is Ethiopia as a landlocked country, this research will provide an analytical description of China's interests in geoeconomic maneuvering against Ethiopia through the perspective of energy geopolitics. This study uses descriptive qualitative research methods in data collection, the material of which is sourced from the existing literature. Research on China's geoeconomic maneuvers against Ethiopia shows that China needs Ethiopia as an access point for energy transportation to be channeled to the State of Djibouti, where the country has one of the largest ports in the world and is strategically located in the world's trade routes.

China's Belt-Road Initiative and Investment Strategies: A Two Pillar Approach to Afghanistan

China's Belt-Road Initiative and Investment Strategies: A Two Pillar Approach to Afghanistan

STRATEGY OF INDONESIA MARITIME DEFENSE IN THE MIDDLE OF ASIA PACIFIC CONFLICT POTENTIAL IMPLICATION OF AUKUS (AUSTRALIA, UNITED KINGDOM, AND UNITED STATES OF AMERICA) VS PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

Indonesia is a country located in the Asia Pacific Region which geography located in Southeast Asia and bordering direct with People's Republic of China and Australia. With position geographical this , defense strategy Indonesian seas , namely the World Maritime Axis, must noticed return see that People's Republic of China has To do initiation in reach his ambition To use reach hegemony in the Asia Pacific Region through claim nine dash line until formation Belt Road Initiative (BRI) with use silk road. In response Thing here , United States of America with Australia and England then shape alliance defense and security with ensure security of the Asia Pacific Region which then increase tendency conflict in the region. For see defense strategy sea , research this use maritime strategy theory and theory strength sea for see Indonesian capabilities . Study this use method qualitative in composing research . Result of study this namely Indonesia must consider return of the World Maritime Axis as a defense strategy sea see that development territorial water activities in the Asia Pacific Region increase accompanied with tendency increasing conflict _ tall Among People's Republic of China and AUKUS.

Panda bond financing of the Belt and Road Initiative: An analysis of monetary mechanisms and financial risks

We examine the role of China Development Bank (CDB) in the Panda bond financing of the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). We investigate the monetary mechanisms and the financial risks involved in the Panda bond financing of the BRI, especially exchange rate risks and balance of payment crisis risks. Our main findings are that the CDB may reduce its financial risks by acting as an underwriter of the Panda bonds rather than as the direct financer, but it may also have to act as a dealer of last resort. To reduce the risks of both the exchange rate and balance of payment crisis of the Panda bonds, it is important that the real investment projects are export-enhancing for host countries (generate foreign currency) and that the construction and execution of the real investment projects uses local suppliers based in host countries.

Green Logistics and Health in OBRI Economies: Does Social Marketing Matter?

In this study, our primary focus is to capture the impact of green logistics and social marketing on health outcomes in One Belt Road Initiative (OBRI) countries over the time period 2007–2019. Two estimation techniques, i.e., 2SLS and GMM, are employed to get the estimates of our variables. Findings of the 2SLS model confirmed the negative impact of green logistics on infant mortality in OBRI, European, MENA, and Asian countries. On the other side, the relationship between green logistics and life expectancy is positive in all the regions in 2SLS models. The other estimation technique also supports these findings, GMM, which confirmed the negative impact of green logistics on infant mortality and the positive impact of green logistics on life expectancy OBRI, European, MENA, and Asian economies. From these findings, we can conclude that green logistics helps to improve the health status of OBRI economies. Similarly, social marketing also improves the health status in OBRI and other regions in both models. Therefore, the governments and policymakers in respective economies should focus on the development of green infrastructure and logistics that, on one side, promote economic growth. However, on the other side, it helps improve environmental quality, which ultimately improves the OBRI economies' health status.

The battle of the Coral Sea: Australia’s response to the Belt & Road Initiative in the Pacific

ABSTRACT Australia has not been alone in declining the opportunity to take part in China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). Instead, this article contends, Australia launched its own infrastructure initiative in the Pacific that has attempted to reduce the attractiveness of the BRI to the region. The article focuses on Australia’s intervention in the Coral Sea Cable System, an action which vastly reduced the role of Chinese firms such as Huawei in building telecommunications infrastructure in the Pacific. Informed by a postcolonial perspective, we explain Australia’s stance on the BRI in terms of its intimate but at-times problematic relations with Asia and the Pacific. This was reflected in Australia’s unwillingness to acknowledge the legitimacy of the BRI as a foreign policy initiative, in its invocation of the ‘rules-based order’ to justify its intervention in the cable project, and in the design of its regional infrastructure program, which bore some uncanny resemblances to what Australian policymakers have depicted as the worst aspects of the BRI itself.

Is Africa Changing Its Strategic Plan Agaisnt China’s Belt and Road Initiative Because of Covid-19 Pandemic?

The unprecedented Covid-19 global pandemic, hit the world at a time many did not expect with impact not just on health of countries but also on the economy. Efforts to manage the impact of Covid-19 have led to stronger ties with some countries and strain on others. The study investigated the African Relations with China post Covid-19 owing to the growing concerns on Africa’s change of attitude due to the impact of covid-19 and health and economy. Using secondary data, the article assessed the ongoing relations between China and Africa, attitude of African governments to the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) and western perspectives on the BRI in Africa. Findings revealed that there are growing concerns on racist tendencies of China on Africans; while African governments try to maintain diplomatic relations with China, citizens have reservations. It also revealed that Africa and China relations may likely continue however there is a need to look inwards Post Covid-19 to diversify the economy. Findings also revealed that joint partnership with the West will stand a better chance for countries to benefit. Drawing from the findings it was recommended that, Chinese experts and policymakers should work to address African, American (and indeed, global) concerns about the standards and inclusiveness of BRI and be transparent in their dealings. The study also recommends that countries should remain openminded and flexible about BRI and engage with it where it serves their interests rather than viewing the entire initiative through the often simplistic lens of geopolitical competition post Covid-19.