Bank-based Economy Research Articles

The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy

We show that the estimated effect of digital euro news on bank stock valuations and lending depends on the bank’s deposit reliance and the central bank digital currency (CBDC) design features. Using a quantitative DSGE model calibrated to the euro area economy that replicates such evidence, we find that CBDC issuance yields nontrivial welfare trade-offs between, on one side, the positive expansion of liquidity services and the improved stabilization of deposit funding and lending and, on the other side, a negative bank disintermediation effect. The optimal amount of CBDC lies between 15 and 45 percent of quarterly GDP. (JEL E23, E42, E58, F33, G14, G21)

Uncertainty in banking and debt financing of firms in Vietnam.

This study explores the effects of banking uncertainty on firms' debt financing. Employing data from 2007 to 2022 of Vietnam-a bank-based economy, we document that banking uncertainty negatively impacts corporate debt. The impact firmly holds across various debt maturities and sources, with the most predominant driver witnessed in bank debt. We also investigate the potential underlying mechanism linking banking uncertainty to debt financing, thereby validating the working of three crucial channels, including increased costs of debt, substitution of trade credit, and contractions in firm investment. Furthermore, conducting extended analysis, we find that debt financing exhibits more pronounced reactions to banking uncertainty for firms with closer ties to banks or during macroeconomic shocks, as captured by the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings survive after robustness checks by alternative measurement, static and dynamic econometric models, and endogeneity controls.

Audit quality and classification shifting: evidence from UK and Germany

PurposeThe authors examine the impact of audit quality (AQ) on classification shifting (CS) among non-financial firms operating in the UK and Germany.Design/methodology/approachThis paper used various audit committee variables (size, meetings, gender diversity and financial expertise) to measure AQ and its impact on CS. The authors used a total of 2,110 firm-year observations from 2010 to 2019.FindingsThe authors found that the presence of female members on the audit committee and audit committee financial expertise deter the UK and German managers from shifting core expenses and revenue items into special items to inflate core earnings. However, audit committee size is positively related to CS among German firms but has no impact on UK firms. The authors also document evidence that audit committee meetings restrain UK managers from engaging in CS. However, the authors found no impact on CS among German firms. The study results hold even after employing several tests.Research limitations/implicationsOverall, the study findings provide broad support in an international setting for the board to improve its auditing practices and offer essential information to investors to assess how AQ affects the financial reporting process.Originality/valueMost CS studies used market-oriented economies such as the USA and UK and ignored bank-based economies such as Germany, France and Japan. The authors provide a comparison among bank and market-oriented economies on whether the AQ has a similar impact on CS or not among them.

Board characteristics and corporate cash holding: evidence from the UK, France and Germany

PurposePrior studies suggest that corporate cash holding will reflect firms' corporate governance (CG) environment. Consistent with this prediction, this study aims to examine the impact of board characteristics on firms' cash holding in the UK, France and Germany.Design/methodology/approachUsing 2,805 firm-year observations between 2009 and 2019, the authors examine the relationship between board characteristics and corporate cash holding. The authors used two measures of cash holdings as our dependent variables. As independent variables, the authors used CG characteristics relevant to effective board monitoring such as board meetings, outside directors, board size and board gender diversity.FindingsThe authors find that board characteristics influence firms' cash holdings of firms in the UK, France and Germany. However, this study documents evidence of varying impacts of board monitoring on the cash holding of the UK when compared to German and French firms, the countries that are classifiable as bank-based economies. The result of this study is robust to alternative cash-holding measures and endogeneity.Practical implicationsThis study provides evidence supporting the board's impact in mitigating agency conflict in shareholder- and stakeholder-oriented CG environments.Originality/valueThis study contributes to previous works on firms’ financial orientation by showing that the impact of board characteristics on corporate cash holdings varies between bank- and market-based economies.

Cash flow volatility and debt maturity structure: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

This study aims to investigate the impact of cash flow volatility on the debt maturity structure choices of corporations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, a region with large gross domestic products (GDPs), negligible corporate taxes, and bank-based economies. The study uses a four-year rolling standard deviation of cash flows as a proxy for volatility and examines its impact on the use of long-term debt by applying the two-stage least square estimator. In addition, the study constructs a categorical debt maturity variable and applies the ordered probit regression to analyze the impact of volatility on the probability of having long-term debt. The findings of this study show that both the proportion of long-term debt relative to total debt and the probability of having long-term debt decrease significantly with volatility. These findings suggest that volatility limits GCC firms’ use of long-term borrowing which has implications for their private investments. Other findings indicate that firm size, asset tangibility, asset maturity, and leverage have a positive impact on debt maturity while growth opportunities have a negative impact, which suggests that GCC firms use short-term debt to reduce agency and liquidity costs.

BANK REGULATION AND STABILITY: LESSON LEARNED FROM THE INDONESIAN BANKING SECTOR

This study aims to investigate the impact of bank regulations on bank stability. This study holds crucial significance in Indonesia’s long regulation journey within a bank-based economy to maintain stability in various business cycles, including the Asian financial crisis. Additionally, although the capitalization of the Indonesian banking sector is the highest among the G-20 countries, the capitalization of these more than 100 banks varies widely and is concentrated among large banks. Thus, it is necessary to implement the capital requirement policy meticulously. This study examines the impact of bank regulations in terms of capital requirement and bank capitalization on bank stability using a sample of Indonesian commercial banks and employs a dynamic panel regression. We expect to improve from the previous study by using the research period from 2001 to 2019 that captures different business cycles, analyzing three of Indonesia’s bank regulations, and providing further analysis by incorporating the role of bank market power and size in the relationship between bank capital and bank stability. The results show that capital discipline implemented in the capital requirements significantly supports bank stability. Furthermore, the findings show that low-to-middle capitalization banks are associated with weak bank stability in terms of solvency. However, low-capitalized banks tend to be more prudent in granting credit, so exposure to credit risk is low. Moreover, this study reveals that market power and size strengthen the impact of capital on bank stability. However, such an influence should be accompanied by intense supervision to avoid credit risk exposure.

Firm Listing Status, Firm Size, and the Financing of Investment

Abstract How do companies finance their investments? We examine the financing of investments according to firms’ listing status, their size, and the nature of the investments. We show that private firms rely more on bank credit than public firms and less on financial debt, equity, and cash flow. We also show that the contribution of financial debt and equity increases with firm size. Considering both dimensions, we always find an increasing contribution of other financial debt and equity with firm size in both populations. Therefore, even in a bank-based economy, equity plays an important role in the investment of larger private firms. (JEL D25, E22, G21, G30, G31, G32)

Ownership Concentration, Control, and Capital Structure in Family and Non-Family Firms

The objective of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between the firm’s ownership and control structure and its leverage. Capital structure is not only the result of various financial characteristics of the firm but also depends on who is in control. Thus, it is fundamental to understand the influence that certain features of the shareholding structure or the composition of the board, including the potential differences between family and non-family firms, exert on capital structure decisions. The paper uses a sample of wine firms in Portugal, because it helps to capture a business sector where family firms make up a significant portion of the industry. It is used an unbalanced panel data set of 460 firms for the period 2010 to 2018 and applied a random-effects model specification. Our results do not evidence significant differences between family and non-family firms. Still, they indicate that firms with fewer shareholders, smaller boards, and where the main director or member of the board is also a shareholder tend to present higher debt levels. There is no evidence of a non-monotonic relation between the ownership structure and debt, nor the presence of moderating effects on that relation. This paper fills a gap in the literature as the impact that specific characteristics of firms and their leaders have on capital structure decisions is still a topic less studied in the literature, particularly in bank-based economies.

Designing the anti-money laundering supervisor: The governance of the financial intelligence units

Using a unique data set, this paper studies the governance of anti-money laundering (AML) supervisors known as Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs). We start from a theoretical framework that explains any FIU setting as the final outcome of a political choice that combines four governance properties: financial and informative powers, law enforcement and investigative powers, independence and accountability. Then we empirically explore the possible structural drivers of this choice, building up the first quantitative FIU Governance Index and applying this metrics in a cross country analysis of 71 countries. FIUs' financial powers tend to be weaker in bank-based economies and stronger in countries with more affiliations with international AML organizations. FIU's law enforcement powers are more intense in civil law countries, and Islamic culture matters as well on the choice of the FIU type. FIU independence and accountability are stronger in countries with higher-quality governance. The overall FIU Governance Index appears stronger for more developed and transparent countries. Finally, overall FIU governance as well as independence and accountability are found to be weaker in countries with law enforcement FIUs.

The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy

The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy

Reporting quality and financial leverage: Are qualitative characteristics or earnings quality more important? Evidence from an emerging bank-based economy

Drawing on pecking-order theory and agency theory, this study investigates whether financial leverage is affected by financial reporting quality. Financial reporting quality is measured by employing the outcome of the Vietnam Annual Report Awards and earnings quality. I find that firms with higher reporting quality have a lower degree of information asymmetry and lower debt ratios, consistent with pecking-order theory and agency theory. The results also indicate that two aspects of reporting quality, qualitative characteristics and earnings quality, are not substitutes but complementary in explaining the debt ratio. In addition, I find that qualitative characteristics play a more significant role in reducing information asymmetry than earnings quality.

The effect of the number of bank relationships on firm leverage: high-risk shift and the curse of mainstream banks

PurposeFirms prefer to have more than one bank relationship to secure the flow of funds for their operations, particularly in bank-based economies. On the other hand, banks lean toward expanding their customer base with firms already in the credit market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the number of bank relationships as a firm-specific determinant of capital structure and to discuss its impact on the banking sector.Design/methodology/approachA two-step system generalized method of the moments estimation method is used in this study. The sample comprises 213 Turkish non-financial, publicly listed firms with a positive shareholder’s value for the 2012–2017 period.FindingsThe findings show that the number of bank relationships increases the leverage of sample firms while the concentration in the banking sector decreases it. These rather intriguing findings are attributed to an under-the-counter credit policy that causes a high-risk shift and a curse of mainstream banks. Once the mainstream banks allocated credit to the firm, its credibility is consumed by the following banks, which is implied by the significantly negative relationship between bank concentration and firm leverage. This problem is defined as the mainstream bank curse in the study.Originality/valueThe previous literature focuses on the effects of the number of bank relationships on firm profitability, cost of debt and shareholder wealth. However, its impact on the capital structure has not yet been systematically investigated. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to critically analyze the effect of the number of bank relationships on the capital structure. The findings will be of immense benefit to the banking sector and the regulatory bodies.

Board monitoring and capital structure dynamics: evidence from bank-based economies

We examine the impact of board characteristics on the speed of adjustment and the capital structure dynamics of firms in bank-based economies. Using 3927 firm-year observations over a 10-year (2009–2019), we find that board characteristic influences firms' speed of adjustment in a bank-based (stakeholder-oriented) system. We also find some evidence that board characteristics have varying impacts on the capital structure of Japanese, French and German firms. We conclude that firms' capital structure reflects the corporate governance environment they operate. Our results are robust to accounting for endogeneity and alternative leverage measure.

Dynamic interactions between financial cycles, business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances: A panel VAR analysis

We use Bayesian and GMM panel VAR frameworks to study interactions between financial and macroeconomic imbalances based on a global sample of 24 countries spanning the period 1998–2012. We find that financial cycles play an important role in shaping macroeconomic imbalances with expansions inducing economic overheating and a downward pressure on public debt-to-GDP ratios. Financial misalignments invoke deeper and faster response of business cycles in bank-based economies and milder, but more persistent in market-based economies, with greater significance for current account and public debt dynamics. High-public debt countries reveal much stronger effects on fiscal stance and output gap trajectories.

Modelling of Payout Ratio: A Panel Regression Analysis for Indonesian Listed Bank

The Indonesian economy is a bank-based economy, where the economy relies on the existence of the banking sector as a source of financing, so a healthy and efficient banking system is the key to success in the sustainability of national economic development. The company's financial performance can be improved by going public. In companies that go public, dividends are one of the motivations of investors to invest their funds in the capital market, because it is a form of return on investor investment and an increase in wealth. The purpose of this study is determining the best model of the dividend payout ratio (DPR) in the banking sector by predictor variables such as ROI, DER, ROE, PER, and CAR using panel regression analysis. Based on the results of the analysis it was concluded that the factors that influenced the banking sector DPR were ROI and CAR with a good model of 86,7%.

The Financing of Investment: Firm Size, Asset Tangibility and the Size of Investment

How do finance their investment? To what extent does the financing mix depends on the nature or the size of investment? To what extent does the funding mix of investment vary along firm size? Relying on a unique database of covering 72% of the value added in France over three decades, this paper addresses those questions and provides a comprehensive picture of the financial resources used by to finance their investment. We uncover significant cross-sectional heterogeneity in the financing mix of investment along firm size, asset tangibility and investment size. In particular, we show that the commonly held view that firms strongly rely on bank credit in a bank-based economy weakens significantly as we consider larger or when it comes to finance intangible investments or relatively small investments.

Designing the Anti-Money Laundering Supervisor: Theory, Institutions and Empirics

Using a unique data set, this paper studies the governance of anti-money laundering supervisors known as Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs). Starting from a theoretical framework that highlights four key properties of FIU governance – financial powers, law enforcement features, independence and accountability – we build the first quantitative index of FIU governance. The proposed metrics are then applied in an analysis of 71 countries that explores the drivers of FIU governance properties. Our results show that FIUs’ financial powers tend to be weaker in bank-based economies and stronger in countries with more affiliations with international anti-money laundering organizations. FIU independence and FIU accountability are stronger in countries with higher-quality governments and less opacity in the fiscal and legal systems. With regards to the nexus between country fundamentals and our overall FIU Governance Index, the index generally appears stronger for richer and more transparent countries. It is also stronger for countries with civil (rather than common) law. Finally, given the distinction between administrative FIUs and law enforcement FIUs, we find that overall FIU governance as well as independence and accountability are all weaker in countries with law enforcement FIUs.

Cross-impact of leverage and firm performance: developed vs frontier bank-based economies

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the cross-impact of leverage and performance for firms operating in the developed and frontier bank-based economies.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses annual panel data for a sample of 400 firms over a period of 27 years from 1990 to 2016. The sample sample firms consist of developed, Germany, France and Japan, and frontier including Argentina and Sri Lanka bank-based economies firms. The authors employ a simultaneous equation modeling consisting of two equations estimated using the two-stage least squares procedure to examine the cross-relationships between leverage and performance after controlling for other firm-level variables like size, growth and liquidity.FindingsThe empirical results are presented in two sets. First, in the case of firms in the developed bank-based sample, the authors find a negative debt-to-performance relationship and a negative performance-to-debt relationship. This inconsistent negative debt–performance relationship implies that firms operating in these economies use debt beyond a threshold limit, which, in turn, increases agency issues between the managers and debt-holders, thereby influencing firm performance adversely. Second, for frontier economies firms, the authors find a positive debt-to-performance relationship in line with the “trade-off theory.” Furthermore, the authors find a negative performance-to-debt relationship for both sub-samples in line with the “pecking-order theory.”Originality/valueThe study is distinct from earlier empirical studies and contributes largely to the existing literature. First, it emphasizes whether financial leverage influences firm performance in bank-based economies as firms operating in such systems are exposed directly to the strict regulatory environment. Second, it investigates whether any reverse relationship emanating from firm performance to capital structure holds for firms of these countries. This issue, to the best of author knowledge, is unanswered in previous research, more specifically for developed and frontier bank-based economies. Moreover, the results are relevant, as firm managers, analysts and policymakers must consider the importance of such cross-debt-performance relationships, while determining the optimal capital structure, in the bank-based economies.

The relationship between insurance and banking sectors: does financial structure matter?

This paper employs panel data of 36 countries over the period from 1980 to 2015 to investigate whether financial structure matters for the linkage between the insurance and banking sectors. Panel co-integration tests find that the significant relationship varies across different financial structures. Specifically, a developed financial system and market-based structure reinforce their long-run linkage. Panel Granger causality tests show that the market-based structure strengthens the insurance–bank nexus for the financially underdeveloped group of countries and that a financially developed system is conducive to realising a short-run dynamic linkage for a bank-based economy. More importantly, the linkages between insurance and banking sectors can be complementary or substitutive, depending on the relative importance of risk transfer and capital allocation in the insurance market. These findings offer useful insights into achieving the two sectors’ co-evolution and further provide some evidence from the market-based and financial services viewpoints.

Finance–Growth Nexus in Nepal: An Application of the ARDL Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks

Executive Summary A healthy financial system is important for the growth process of an economy. It affects growth by influencing the saving, investment and technological innovations. In fact, researchers argue that low-income countries like Nepal need a much more robust and active financial system when compared to the developed world. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth using annual time series data for Nepal during the period 1984–2014. Because Nepal has a bank-based economy, the study used credit issued by banking and financial institutions to the private sector as the proxy for financial development. The economic growth has been measured using real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and real GDP per capita growth (constant 2005 US$). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to investigate the cointegration among variables in the presence of structural breaks. The study used Zivot and Andrews’ (ZA) unit root test in order to find the structural breaks in the variables. The study finds that the structural change in private credit took place in 2007 when the government of Nepal and Maoists (the then rebels) signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the Maoist rebels joined the interim government, which formally ended the 10 years long civil war in Nepal. Similarly, the study observes break points in real GDP growth and per capita growth in 2001 when the Royal Massacre and a state of emergency took place in Nepal. After allowing for structural breaks, the study finds evidence of a cointegration relationship between financial development and economic growth when economic growth is used as the dependent variable. Thus, it can be argued that the long-run causality is unidirectional from financial development to economic growth in Nepal. The estimates of the ARDL approach suggest that financial development has a significant positive impact on economic growth in both long run and short run. However, the estimates show that gross domestic saving, a control variable, has a negative impact on economic growth in Nepal. It clearly indicates that Nepal has long not been able to utilize the savings in the productive sector. The political instability, poor investment policies and securities and hence the lack of foreign investment and lack of technological innovations could be the causes for Nepal not benefiting from the country’s savings. It is also found that trade openness has a negative relationship with economic growth in the long run: possibly the cause of the persistent trade deficit of Nepal with the rest of the world. However, in the short run, the result shows a positive relationship between trade openness and growth. In fact, it is found that the magnitude of the positive impact of trade openness in the short run is higher than the magnitude of its negative impact in the long run. Thus, the policymakers should give more emphasis on trade and investment policies that could reduce the prolonged trade deficit and help the nation in getting long-term benefits from international trade.