Bad Decisions Research Articles

Cognitive effort increases the intensity of rewards.

An important body of literature suggests that exerting intense cognitive effort causes mental fatigue and can lead to unhealthy behaviors such as indulging in high-calorie food and taking drugs. Whereas this effect has been mostly explained in terms of weakening cognitive control, cognitive effort may also bias behavioral choices by amplifying the hedonic and emotional impact of rewards. We report parallel findings with animals and humans supporting this hypothesis. In rats, exerting cognitive effort immediately before access to cocaine self-administration significantly increased drug intake. In addition, exerting cognitive effort increased the psychostimulant effect of cocaine. The effects of cognitive effort on addiction-related behaviors were eliminated and even reversed when animals could rest in their home-cage for 2-4 h before access to cocaine self-administration. Among humans, we found that expending cognitive effort increased consumption of tasty (but unhealthy) food by increasing the hedonic enjoyment of consuming the food. In addition, the effects were specific for emotionally relevant stimuli (i.e. food rewards) and did not generalize to judgment about neutral objects. Altogether these data suggest that intense cognitive effort can increase the perceived intensity of rewards and lead to their overconsumption. This effect may contribute to bad decision making induced by excessive cognitive effort and make people more vulnerable to indulge in unhealthy behaviors such as use of addictive drugs.

Insights into decision‐maker's perceptions of good versus bad decisions in emergency services—A modified Delphi study

AbstractDecision‐making in emergency situations, such as those faced by fire, police, and health service personnel, presents unique challenges due to the high‐stakes and time‐pressured environment. Here we aim to better understand what emergency responders regard as constituting ‘good’ and ‘bad’ decisions in emergency situations. We administered a modified Delphi study, eliciting opinions from decision‐makers across all these sectors towards consensus around the key elements of good and bad decision‐making. Participants were first asked to define what makes a ‘good’ and a ‘bad’ decision, and subsequently to identify the top five most important elements of each. While consensus was not found, important insights were identified that can assist improve the standard of decision making at all levels of emergency response and management. We observed (i) a lack of a common understanding between participants of what a decision is, and how a decision differs from pre‐decision and postdecision components; (ii) responses varied according to whether a free text description or the identification of separate elements was requested; (iii) respondents valued ‘goodness’ across different and at times unrelated components a scaled measure of decision quality as opposed to a binary evaluation of ‘rightness’; and (iv) pre‐ and postdecision elements are considered more important than the decision itself when determining the quality of a decision. To address the issues highlighted by the study we recommend improvements in training, and improvements to organization doctrine related to decision making, risk tolerance, assessment of decision quality and development of intent‐based or principle‐based operational guidance. Ultimately, incident controllers from all services must remain cognizant that they will face considerable scrutiny if they cannot explain how they arrived at the decision they made.

Strategy for strengthening local culture-based character education in class iii students at SDN Menanga 1

Character education based on local culture is values education, character education, moral education, and character education which aims to develop students' abilities to make good and bad decisions, maintain what is good according to their outlook on life and science. This is a challenge for the author to study more deeply. This research was carried out to answer the following problems: The theoretical basis of this research is character education theory by Thomas Lickona, social learning theory by Bandura and behaviourism theory by Burrus Frederic Skinner. The type of research is qualitative research with a phenomenological approach. The technique for determining informants uses purposive sampling. Data collection techniques include observation, interviews, literature study, documentation and using qualitative data analysis, namely data reduction, data presentation and verification or drawing conclusions.

Organizational Conflict Management in the Digital Era Impact on Performance

When a conflict arises within an organization, the cause is always identified as poor communication. Similarly, when a bad decision is made, ineffective communication is always to blame. Conflict management is a series of actions and reactions between actors and external parties in a conflict. This study is to look at the relationship between organizational conflict management in the digital era and its impact on performance. Organizational conflict management theory, digital era theory and performance are studied on an approach oriented to organizational management, communication from actors and external parties and how they affect performance

Only Safe Food is Food

The United Nations defines food security as ability to afford and access food that is safe, nutritious, enough and culturally acceptable. For decades we worried about many world citizens going hungry, and we still do. Increasingly, severe weather events are rendering food inaccessible: stored food and crops in the fields are destroyed by severe weather events while livestock dye under scorching heat or are washed away by floods. Food already harvested also goes bad in unfavorable conditions, even before it is stored. Clearly, food safety becomes a challenge here. And then, if food is not safe, it poses health risks. It becomes poisonous to the human body. Sometimes people feed it to domestic animals, which is a bad decision especially if such animals are meant for human consumption. There are more illnesses that are food borne and water borne than is imagined. Many consumers take a lot of chances with food and sellers know this. As consumers, we trust produce suppliers too much. Knowing where your fresh produce is sourced is very important. Vegetables could look good even when they are full of harmful microorganisms. It is also advisable to establish a regular supplier and let them know your expectations. There are also consumers who might self-poison with food which has gone bad in the refrigerator. Such food might not look or smell spoiled. Yet it might cause problems when consumed. I would recommend one reads extensively on food safety, including how to properly store excess food. And if you have no means to store it, just give it away. And the freezer, will it store food forever? Look in your freezer today and comb through it to see what food you forgot about.

Manajemen Konflik dalam Organisasi

Conflict Management in an organization is meant by someone who is an actor between someone outside and each other in a conflict. Conflict management is an approach based on processes that lead to forms of communication from outsiders and how they influence interests and realize self-interpretation in forming individual attitudes within the organization. In an organization, individuals and groups of workers are interrelated with the work of other parties. When a conflict arises in an organization, the cause is always identified as poor communication. Likewise, when a bad decision is made, poor communication becomes less efficient communication. However, conflict is not always detrimental but can also be beneficial in the long term. Meanwhile, according to the interactionist view, conflict is something that must be stimulated, because conflict can encourage change in the organization. Conflict can change behavior and can make the parties in conflict aware of their mistakes. Awareness of these mistakes will be able to increase productivity in the organization.

Reduction of rejects by combining data from the casting process and automatic X-ray inspection

Automatic inspection of castings with X-rays (radiographic and computed tomography) is widespread for parts that are relevant for safety or have high quality requirements. Examples in the automotive sector are aluminum wheels, chassis parts and new parts within the electric power train. Those parts are automatically inspected, which means that both the image acquisition and the evaluation of the images is done fully automatically. Today, in most industrial implementations, the generated data with a size up to several gigabytes per part is summarized to a simple good or bad decision, according to specification. All other data is dismissed, although this information can be valuable to optimize production processes and thus minimize rejects. This contribution gives an overview about the results of the project Cast Control, which is a collaboration of Fraunhofer Development Center for X-ray Technology EZRT, Fraunhofer Center for Applied Research on Supply Chain Services SCS and industry partner RONAL GROUP. RONAL GROUP is a major aluminum wheel manufacturer, mainly for the OEM market. Within the project we combined serial production data from the low pressure die casting process from a foundry of the RONAL GROUP with the data generated in the automatic X- ray inspection. After collecting a large base of sample data, we were able train a neural network for the prediction of error metrics obtained by X-ray inspection. We apply a combination of layer-wise relevance propagation and dimensionality reduction to find correlations between data of the casting machines (process and sensor) and the characteristics of anomalies detected during X-ray inspection. With this information, it is possible to adjust the casting process in an early stage – even before rejects are produced. This enables the foundry to reduce their rejects rate, which saves costs and energy and results in a better competitiveness.

Hybrid knowledge transfer for MARL based on action advising and experience sharing.

Multiagent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has been well adopted due to its exceptional ability to solve multiagent decision-making problems. To further enhance learning efficiency, knowledge transfer algorithms have been developed, among which experience-sharing-based and action-advising-based transfer strategies share the mainstream. However, it is notable that, although there exist many successful applications of both strategies, they are not flawless. For the long-developed action-advising-based methods (namely KT-AA, short for knowledge transfer based on action advising), their data efficiency and scalability are not satisfactory. As for the newly proposed experience-sharing-based knowledge transfer methods (KT-ES), although the shortcomings of KT-AA have been partially overcome, they are incompetent to correct specific bad decisions in the later learning stage. To leverage the superiority of both KT-AA and KT-ES, this study proposes KT-Hybrid, a hybrid knowledge transfer approach. In the early learning phase, KT-ES methods are employed, expecting better data efficiency from KT-ES to enhance the policy to a basic level as soon as possible. Later, we focus on correcting specific errors made by the basic policy, trying to use KT-AA methods to further improve the performance. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed KT-Hybrid outperforms well-received action-advising- and experience-sharing-based methods.

A case study of BYJU’S failure

Once an education IT pioneer, BYJU'S, failure convoluted startup workers, investors. Byju failed due to financial mismanagement. Bad decisions and inconsistent financing prevented the corporation from paying its obligations. Company disagreements and leadership instability hurt BYJU'S operations. Due to negative press, BYJU'S brand suffers, its reputation suffered from data breaches, false advertising, and forced purchases. When the economy is terrible, earning more is tougher. These issues must be addressed for the future of technology. Businesses must be frugal, transparent, and financially aware. Customise marketing and market segmentation to accommodate everyone. Openness to new ideas and flexibility are needed to compete in a fast-changing market. Innovation, perseverance, and morality help Ed-tech overcome problems and capture opportunities. Businesses may learn from BYJU'S errors to grow sustainably, establish trust, and lead in the fast-paced, competitive educational technology business. Ed-tech must innovate after Byju failed. The company couldn't innovate; therefore, it struggled to compete and survive. Edtech companies must be inventive, customer-focused, and adaptable to compete in a competitive, ever-changing business. Learning from setbacks and encouraging resilience and creativity may help ed-tech companies thrive.

PPS: Fair and efficient black-box scheduling for multi-tenant GPU clusters

Multi-tenant GPU clusters are common, where users purchase GPU quota to run their neural network training jobs. However, strict quota-based scheduling often leads to cluster under-utilization, while allowing quota groups to use excess GPUs improves utilization but results in fairness problems. We propose PPS, a probabilistic prediction based scheduler, which uses job history statistics to predict future cluster status for making good scheduling decisions. Different from existing schedulers that rely on deep learning frameworks to adjust bad scheduling decisions and/or require detailed job information, PPS treats jobs as black boxes in that PPS runs a job to completion without adjustment once scheduled and requires only aggregate job statistics. The black-box feature is favorable due to its good generality, compatibility and security, and made possible by the predictability of aggregate resource utilization statistics of large clusters. Extensive experiments show that PPS achieves high cluster utilization and good fairness simultaneously.

The Meaning of Studying Batik Art to Create Character Education in Cultural History

The aim of writing this article is to analyze the importance of studying Batik art in order to create character in cultural history, which is important to prevent moral degradation in young people. The research method used is a literature study prepared in the same way as other studies; however, data was collected through library sources by reading, taking notes, and analyzing research materials from papers about the variables studied. The results of the research show changes in the use of Batik art in ancient times and now, which in the past was only used by the kings and their families, which is different from now which can be used by all groups and other regions also have batik with their own regional characteristics. Character education includes education on values, manners, morals and character which aims to develop students' ability to make good and bad decisions, maintain the good and realize that goodness in everyday life wholeheartedly, considering how important the scope of character education is, it is a The character education process must include the totality of students' potential, both in cognitive, affective and psychomotor aspects.

An experimental test of whether financial incentives constitute undue inducement in decision-making

Around the world, laws limit the incentives that can be paid for transactions such as human research participation, egg donation or gestational surrogacy. A key reason is concerns about ‘undue inducement’—the influential but empirically untested hypothesis that incentives can cause harm by distorting individual decision-making. Here I present two experiments (n = 671 and n = 406), including one based on a highly visceral transaction (eating insects). Incentives caused biased information search—participants offered a higher incentive to comply more often sought encouragement to do so. However, I demonstrate theoretically that such behaviour does not prove that incentives have harmful effects; it is consistent with Bayesian rationality. Empirically, although a substantial minority of participants made bad decisions, incentives did not magnify them in a way that would suggest allowing a transaction but capping incentives. Under the conditions of this experiment, there was no evidence that higher incentives could undermine welfare for transactions that are permissible at low incentives.

Improving intuitiveness in geoscience hazard maps: a web-based experiment supporting governmental map development

ABSTRACT Changing societal needs means that new or existing maps need to be continuously developed. It is important that these maps are interpreted in the right way, to avoid misinterpretations and bad decision-making. The map design choices are based upon experience and cartographic theory, and in the end, are a product of expert opinions. This in-house research project aims to test and communicate the impact of these design choices to support the development processes for two Norwegian geoscience maps: Possibility of marine clay and the national Radon susceptibility map. Interviews were conducted with the map owners and based on known challenges with the maps, a web-based experiment was set up to measure intuitiveness for a series of map alternatives. A total of 450 participants, from novices to experts, took part in the experiment. By analyzing and visualizing amounts of correct answers, confidence in the map reading tasks and uncertainties, it was possible to conclude about map intuitiveness and how accessible the map is expected to be. The results show that including an experiment like this can improve cartographic work processes, support map design choices with empirical evidence, and that seemingly small improvements in design significantly improve the participant scores.

Mind on the battlefield: what can cognitive science add to the military lessons-learned process?

ABSTRACT In this paper, we demonstrate the advantages of combining the detailed military history of actual battles with contemporary decision-making cognitive theories. Specifically, we analyse two battle decisions made in Israeli-Arab wars, and interpret, through a cognitive lens, some of the decisions that were subsequently deemed “incomprehensible” in the civilian and military literature. This perspective permits analysis of multiple processes – such as risk evaluation, mental completion of unknown information, and estimation of enemy response. Moreover, it predicts that even highly experienced commanders are prone to the effect of cognitive biases, and may therefore make bad decisions with disastrous consequences.

Risk Management Strategies for Financial Derivatives: Addressing Systemic and Operational Challenges

With the increasing prosperity of social and economic construction in the new era, the risk management of financial derivatives is a hot issue in the current financial market. Through in-depth research on this topic, we can better understand and deal with the various risks brought by financial derivatives. Exploring the efficacy of risk management of financial derivatives and proposing corresponding enhancement measures is the aim of this study. To accomplish this objective, the research adopts the literature analysis method, firstly expounds the concept of financial derivatives and analyzes the types of financial derivatives and conducts a comprehensive risk assessment on the risk management of financial derivatives. First, Systemic risk, caused by market volatility and information asymmetry, can have a considerable effect on the whole financial system. Second, operational risk mainly comes from market participants' bad decisions, technical errors and imperfect internal controls, which can trigger a chain reaction in financial markets. To address these issues, this study presents a set of measures aimed at enhancing the situation. This includes strengthening risk management awareness of financial derivatives, establishing a risk management framework, and strengthening monitoring and reporting mechanisms. Adopting the aforementioned prudent strategies can mitigate the vulnerabilities associated with the financial derivatives market, guarantee the smooth functioning of the financial system, and offer investors a more secure and dependable investment milieu.

Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence

Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence

Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence

Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence

Deciding Financial Problem Solution for a Construction Company using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP)

PT X is a construction company with clients spread among Central Java, West Java, Papua, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi. This company experienced financial problem and with the absence of financial bookkeeping, the financial issue was difficult to trace and each manager and also the owner had different perceptions toward the financial problem. One said that it was caused by bad financial investment decision, many said that it is because client late payment, while the other said that it is due to lack of orders and competition. In other word, this problem is still a perceived financial problem. This research was conducted to find the root cause of perceived financial problem in PT X as well as to find the best solution to solve it. By establishing 2 methods that consisted of fault tree analysis (FTA) and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP), employing the thinking framework of value-focused thinking (VFT), the best solution was decided. FTA was used to identify the root cause of the problem which was bad investment decision. After that, reverse brainstorming was conducted to find all possible solutions. Before jumping into alternative solutions, VFT, a thinking framework, identified that control and simplicity was the value that the owner considered. 3 alternative solutions which were asking to financial consultant, hiring financial analyst, and training current financial manager, then analysed using fuzzy AHP with context suitability, sustainability, time needed, and cost as the criterion, and found out that training current financial manager is the best alternative to be chosen.

Improving the knowledge management of marine megafauna strandings

Although the marine megafauna often strands on beaches around the world, such as sea turtles and whales, stranding data are poorly managed and incorporated into management and conservation strategies. Here we use a knowledge value chain framework to call attention for the urgent need to improve our data architecture and knowledge management on marine megafauna strandings. We use Brazil, a continental megadiverse federative republic, as study model. After describing the main components and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the current Brazilian data architecture, we propose 10 practical measures for its improvement involving researchers, companies, non-governmental organizations, legislators, policy makers, public agents, citizen scientists, and local communities. Although Brazil has notable strengths such as comprehensive environmental legislation, hundreds of scientists and dozens of prestigious research institutions, stranding data is not translated into technical-scientific knowledge; technical-scientific knowledge is not transformed into effective public regulations; deficient regulations lead to bad decisions and limited actions, which in turn result in ineffective management and conservation strategies. In light of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), we propose (1) expanding standardized beach monitoring projects to the entire Brazilian coast; (2) creating a governmental database with FAIR principles; (3) encouraging the development of broad citizen science initiatives; (4) funding scientists and research institutions; (5) boosting outreach activities among researchers to popularize the scientific knowledge; (6) raising awareness among legislators and policy makers on the problem of strandings; (7) updating the existing legal provisions on the environmental licensing of activities developed at sea; (8) hiring new environmental analysts and inspectors and improving the infrastructure of executing environmental agencies; (9) strengthening existing conservation networks with multiple stakeholders; and (10) making the results of the management and conservation strategies broadly accessible to society. These recommendations may also apply to other coastal countries around the world.

Failing to Promote Competition: From the Inaction of the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum to the 2018 Brazil Truckers' Strike

This article seeks to clarify the political reasons and behavioral biases that led the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum (ANP) to fail in its institutional mission to promote competition in the refinery sector, which was one of the leading causes of the Brazilian truckers' strike in 2018. Following the steps of Hood (1974), who differentiates internal and external problems in the organization, five hypotheses were formulated to identify the causes of this regulatory failure. These hypotheses allow us to recognize the conflicts that emerge from the relationship between the ANP and its external stakeholders and the internal organizational factors that cause coordination problems and attention bias in the institution's daily decision-making process. Based on interviews conducted with former ANP directors and the application of a questionnaire to employees of that institution, it was found that the agency's lack of independence from the Federal Government made the institution not strive for a more competitive refinery sector. Furthermore, several internal coordination problems and bad decisions by political bureaucrats were also crucial factors in the regulatory inefficiency, making the promotion of competition in the refinery sector outside the institution's priorities. Analyzing the causes of this regulatory failure in Brazil is essential because the global regulatory system has several structural flaws that only become apparent when high-impact events appear. Therefore, this study can provide insights into different regulation domains, allowing countries to assess their regulatory systems to perceive the need for change, preventing their population from suffering from the dysfunctions of public administration.