Average Infection Rate Research Articles

Поражение нервной системы, ассоциированное с ВИЧ-инфекцией (клинический случай)

На сегодняшний день только на Восточную Европу приходится не менее 130 тысяч новых случаев заражения ВИЧ, что, несомненно, отражает актуальность данной медицинской проблемы. В нашей стране средний показатель инфицированности вирусом иммунодефицита человека составляет 58 случаев на 100 тыс. человек. Известно, что заболевание вызывает РНК-содержащий вирус иммунодефицита человека. Изучены 2 его типа — ВИЧ-1 и ВИЧ-2, которые имеют множество подтипов. Важной клинической особенностью этого вируса является его тропность к клеткам нервной и иммунной систем человека. Основную группу риска заболевания составляют инъекционные наркоманы, реципиенты крови и лица с низкой социальной ответственностью. Механизм поражения нервной системы при ВИЧ связан с непосредственным действием вируса на функцию нервной клетки, а также нейротоксичным влиянием продуцируемых вирусом токсинов. Следует подчеркнуть, что опосредованное воздействие на нервную систему обусловлено оппортунистическими инфекциями, опухолями, а также токсическим действием антиретровирусной терапии на организм больного. Ведущими путями проникновения вируса в ЦНС и ликвор являются гематогенный и периневральный. Поражение нервной системы при СПИДе представлено комплексом СПИД — деменция, острым асептическим менингитом, ВИЧ-ассоциированной миелопатией, патологией периферической нервной системы, а также влиянием оппортунистических инфекций и новообразований. Отметим, что комплекс СПИД — деменция — это клинический синдром подкорково-лобной деменции, развивающейся на фоне выраженной иммуносупрессии и системных проявлений ВИЧ/СПИДа. В то же время когнитивные нарушения обычно сочетаются с расстройствами эмоционально-поведенческой сферы. В терминальной стадии заболевания развивается акинетический мутизм. Нередко двигательные расстройства дебютируют симптомами паркинсонизма и тремором, миоклоническим гиперкинезом, мозжечковыми и пирамидными симптомами. Расстройство глубокой чувствительности проявляется спастическим парапарезом нижних конечностей с сенситивной атаксией, часто возникают эпилептические припадки. Современная терапия ВИЧ-инфекции представлена высокоактивной антиретровирусной терапией, направленной на блокирование репликации вируса и замедление прогрессирования заболевания (зидовудин, ставудин, абакавир и др.). Проводятся иммунотерапия, лечение оппортунистических инфекций и сопутствующих заболеваний. Первичная профилактика направлена на предупреждение распространения инфекции среди населения половым и парентеральным путями, а также работу с группами риска. В данной статье приведен клинический случай поражения нервной системы, ассоциированный с ВИЧ-инфекцией, а также рассмотрены этиология, патогенез, особенности течения, диагностики и лечения больных нейроСПИДом.

Identification of Spatial Clusters of COVID-19 in Yogyakarta using Moran’s Index

Various studies on the spreading pattern of COVID-19 were carried out because, every day, there are always new progresses from scientists about this virus, including its unique characteristics in each region with different geographical conditions. The objective of this research is to find the spatial distribution pattern of COVID-19 and to identify the climate parameters influencing it in the Yogyakarta. This study used Moran's Index in analyzing COVID-19 distribution pattern. The results of the analysis show that out of 5 regencies/cities in Yogyakarta, Sleman Regency has the highest average spread of COVID-19 or an average infection rate of 1.09, followed by Bantul with 0.75. Kulonprogo is the regency with the lowest number of cases. The result of Moran's index of 0.32 means that there are correlation between cases.The correlation between temperature and infection rate is R2 = 0.05, while the correlation between humidity and infection rate is R2 = 0.003. The spread of COVID-19 in Yogyakarta is more influenced by mobility or interactions between infected and uninfected individuals.

Molecular-Based Detection of Enterocytozoon bieneusi in Farmed Masked Palm Civets (Paguma larvata) in Hainan, China: A High-Prevalence, Specificity, and Zoonotic Potential of ITS Genotypes.

Enterocytozoon bieneusi is a microsporidian and zoonotic species. This study investigated the prevalence and distribution of E. bieneusi genotypes in farmed masked palm civets using nested PCR, as well as assessed their zoonotic potential by phylogenetic analysis of the ITS region of the rRNA region. Here, we collected 251 fecal specimens from farmed masked palm civets (Paguma larvata) from the Hainan Island, China. In total, 128 of 251 samples were positive for E. bieneusi, with an average infection rate of 51.0%. Seventeen genotypes were identified including 12 known genotypes—HNR-VI (n = 56), SHR1 (n = 45), SHW7 (n = 6), KIN-1 (n = 3), D (n = 3), New1 (n = 3), EbpC (n = 2), CHC5 (n = 1), CHG19 (n = 1), CHN4 (n = 1), EbpA (n = 1), and Henan-III (n = 1)—and five novel genotypes (HNPL-I to HNPL-II; one each). Phylogenetic analysis categorized these genotypes into two groups. Thirteen of them were members of the zoonotic group 1, and the remaining four genotypes were in group 12. This study has shown that the infection rates of E. bieneusi in masked palm civets from Hainan were relatively high and provide baseline data to control and prevent microsporidiosis in farm-related communities. Therefore, infections in masked palm civets with zoonotic genotypes D, EbpC, CHN4, EbpA, KIN-1, and Henan-III should be considered potential threats to public health.

Optimal design of building openings to reduce the risk of indoor respiratory epidemic infections.

The design of indoor airflow environments can significantly reduce the risk of respiratory epidemic infections indoors. Some studies have successfully developed theoretical models for calculating the effect of airflow fields on infection rates. However, up until now, studies have primarily focused on simulating and calculating the distribution of viral infection rates in current building scenarios. Due to the lack of a direct influence model for the design parameters and infection rate calculation, the present studies lack a quantitative analysis of the design parameters. This paper investigates the building openings design approach in a medium-sized kindergarten in Germany, intending to explore passive-based design solutions to improve the building’s ability to prevent the virus’ spread. We calculate the infection rate distribution in space by CFD combined with the Wells-Riley model. And then, use the Grasshopper platform to build an optimization model with the design parameters of building openings and infection rate values to discuss the relationship between geometric parameters and infection rate variation. The results show that the building openings’ design parameters in transition spaces significantly affect the indoor infection rate under the condition that the input wind speed at the building openings is stable. We can see that optimizing building openings significantly reduces the average infection rate in space. The infection rate in the area with the largest decrease can be reduced by 18.41%. The distribution of infection rate in space is much more uniform, and the excess area is significantly reduced. This study has implications for future research and practice in designing public buildings under the influence of long-standing and cyclical outbreaks of epidemics.

Intra-wound vancomycin and tobramycin powder for infection prophylaxis in orthopaedic trauma surgery: Economically justifiable?

ObjectivesThere is increasing interest regarding the risks and benefits of intrawound antibiotics applied directly to surgical wounds for the prevention of infection following orthopaedic trauma surgery. The purpose of this study was to investigate the economic justifiability of vancomycin and tobramycin powders for infection prophylaxis in orthopaedic trauma surgery. MethodsThe cost of vancomycin and tobramycin powders, infection rates and costs of treating surgical site infections were obtained from our institution's records and existing literature. A break-even analysis was then performed using vancomycin powder only, tobramycin powder only and combined vancomycin and tobramycin powders to determine the respective absolute risk reduction (ARR) in infection rate needed to make the prophylactic application of each therapy type break-even. ResultsAt our institutional pricing of $20.64 and $75.80 for 1g vancomycin and 1.2g tobramycin, respectively, use of each individually would be economically justified if it reduced an average infection rate of 4.3% by an ARR of 0.02% and 0.07%, respectively. Used in combination for $90.66, the ARR was 0.09%. Varying cost of treating infection from $5,000-$200,000 while maintaining cost of antibiotic powder at $90.66 demonstrated a range in ARR from 1.93% to 0.05%, respectively. At the same cost of $90.66 but varying infection rate from 1% to 25% did not affect ARR, which was constant at 0.09%. ConclusionsConsidering the cost of vancomycin and tobramycin powder at our institution, the application of these powders, whether independently or in combination, appear to be economically justifiable for infection prevention in orthopaedic trauma surgery.

Safety and Efficacy of Achilles Repair Using the Mini-Open Approach in Supine Versus Prone Position: A Retrospective Study.

PurposeSurgical repair of the Achilles tendon is a common procedure in cases of acute rupture. Open Achilles tendon surgery with a traditional extensile approach is most often performed in the prone position, but this can lead to numerous complications. The mini-open approach for repair in the supine position may avoid the risks of the prone position. The purpose of this study is to compare perioperative outcomes and differences in cost between patients undergoing acute Achilles rupture repair with mini-open approach, incision of approximately 3 cm, in the supine position versus traditional approach in the prone position.MethodsPatients who underwent surgical repair of acute Achilles rupture at a single institution were retrospectively identified using Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) code 27650. Complication rates and the total cost charged to the insurance companies of both the supine and prone groups were calculated.ResultsA total of 80 patients were included for analysis, 26 supine and 54 prone. The difference in average total time in the operating room was statistically significant. The prone position took approximately 15% more time (118.7 minutes) compared to the supine position (100 minutes) (p = 0.001). While not statistically significant, the total cost for the supine group ($19,889) was less than the for the prone group ($21,722) (p = 0.153) Average postoperative pain score, infection rate, dehiscence rate, sepsis rate, and deep vein thrombosis (DVT) rate were also similar between the two groups. No patient in either group experienced re-rupture of the Achilles tendon within the first year of primary repair.ConclusionThe mini-open approach in the supine position may be advantageous in the repair of acute Achilles rupture in that it reduces total time in the operating room and total cost while maintaining positive patient outcomes. Prospective clinical studies are warranted to validate these assessments.

Advantages of 3PLs as healthcare supply chain orchestrators

Given the expansion of the COVID-19 cases and the average infection rate globally, constructing a robust healthcare supply chain system for the crisis is highly crucial. The third-party logistics providers (3PLs), who can match the market demand with reliable manufacturers worldwide, have emerged as orchestrators. In addition to the basic transportation and storage services, some 3PLs can also provide procurement assistance to relatively small retailers. To illustrate the value of the above-mentioned business model, we build a game-theoretic model to capture participants’ optimal strategy in a healthcare supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, a 3PL provider, and a retailer. We also investigate the conditions where the performance in this business model outperforms the traditional model. It is concluded that the 3PL’s positive effect appears when the decentralized supply chain is characterized by high logistics outsourcing costs and high-level price sensitivity. We further design an incentive mechanism that can coordinate the supply chain. Finally, a series of numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

AIDS-defining opportunistic illnesses in Qatar, 2000–2016: a cohort study

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains a major health problem since discovery of the virus in 1981 Globally, since the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in 1996, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) related deaths fell by more than 25% between 2005 and 2011. HIV related opportunistic illnesses (OIs) are less common, especially with the use of prophylaxis. This study aims to assess the incidence of HIV infection and related OIs in Qatar over a 17-year period. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of all HIV infected patients registered in Qatar from 2000-2016. Incidence of HIV infection and related OIs were calculated per 100,000 population. Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared between two groups of patients with and without OIs. Results: In 167 cases with HIV infection, 54 (32.3%) had OIs. The average incidence rate of HIV infection over 16 years is 0.69 per 100,000 population, and the incidence rate for OIs is 0.27 per 100,000 population (Figure 1). The most common OIs is pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP), seen in 25% of cases, followed by cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis with 7.2%, tuberculosis 5.4%, toxoplasmosis 4.2%, and less than 2% for Kaposi sarcoma and cryptococcal infection. The treatment outcome of cases with OIs was: cure in 59.3%, failure in 3.7%. Mortality within 3 months of OIs was 3.7%, whereas 33.4% accounted for loss to follow up after starting the treatment due to patients leaving the country. Most patients in both groups were young males. The CD4 lymphocyte count and percentage (CD4%), CD4/CD8 ratio and viral load were statistically significant risk factors in cases with OIs (p < 0.05). Presence of comorbidities was lower in patients with OIs (p = 0.032). Conclusion: Qatar has a low prevalence rate for HIV infection and related opportunistic illness. Early diagnosis and use of antiretroviral therapy are important measures to decrease the rate of opportunistic illness.

Infection density, diversity, and distribution of Wolbachia bacteria in moths (Order Lepidoptera): First systematic report from Thailand

• First systematic report on Wolbachia infections in moths from Thailand. • Surveys in various habitats from 5 provinces in 3 geographic regions of Thailand. • Wolbachia were detected in 28 of 58 moth species and 625 of 1235 individuals. • Some moth species had not been described previously as infected. • Most specimens were collected from the West region of Thailand. Members of the genus Wolbachia are a group of Rickettsia -like, intracellular, maternally inherited bacterial endosymbionts that infect a diverse range of insects and cause reproductive changes in their hosts. Although Wolbachia ’s role in many insects has been extensively studied, only a little of their effects on host’s reproduction and their infection frequencies were reported in Lepidopteran which is one of the most diverse insects. Here, we present the first systematic survey of the Wolbachia infection status in different species of moths from three different geographic regions of Thailand, which was carried out during January to December in 2019 with the screening of 1,235 specimens in total of 58 moth species from 13 families. Specimens were collected from Khao Yai National Park (the Central and the Northeast regions), and Kaeng Krachan National Park (the West region). Infections of Wolbachia were screened by using polymerase chain reaction with 16S rRNA, ftsZ and wsp gene primers which the results indicated high rates of Wolbachia infection in moth populations from Thailand. Wolbachia was found in all different geographically populations in total of 625 individuals in total of 28 moth species from 9 families, including 144 individuals (46 males and 98 females) from the Central, 156 individuals (49 males and 107 females) from the Northeast, and 325 individuals (114 males and 211 females) from the West. The highest infection rate was 90.47% in the West populations and the average infection rate was 61.90%. The detection of Wolbachia in different moth populations from all regions was identical when all primers were used to screen for Wolbachia . The relative densities of Wolbachia within each individual were determined using quantitative real-time PCR and the result showed that there was a low Wolbachia infection density in these moth populations. These findings indicated that Wolbachia are distributed throughout the moth populations from Thailand.

Tibia Nailing Without C-Arm Guidance: Challenges and Successes.

PurposeThere are increased trends in the last two to three decades to operate tibia fractures to ensure acceptable reduction over long period of time and to ensure early mobilization and return to work. This leads to frequent use of C-arm to perform the procedures. The purpose of our study is to reduce the exposure of radiation to the patient and healthcare workers during closed nailing of fractures.Methods and materialsThis is an institute-based retrospective cohort study. Patients operated with tibia interlocking nailing between November 2016 and November 2018 were shortlisted from the OT records. Seventy-six patients were shortlisted and their clinical records were retrieved. Fifty-eight patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included in the study. 28 patients had Tibia interlocking nailing done without using C-arm and 30 patients had tibia interlocking nailing done under C-arm guidance. IBM SPSS software was used to compare data between the groups using Chi-square test and Independent T-test with a 95% confidence interval to determine the significance.ResultsAll the patients progressed to the union by six months of surgery. Average blood loss, Infection rates and time to union in both the groups were comparable. Though the average duration of surgery was significantly higher in non-C-arm group as compared to with C arm group, when the duration of individual surgeries was analysed and plotted sequentially on a chart, we found it was comparable in later cases.ConclusionsWith adequate practice, tibial nailing without C-arm is easy, requires minimal manpower, equipment and can also prove to be a lifesaver in case of equipment failure.

Modeling virus spread on a network using NetLogo for optimum network management

<span>The infections in computer networks are complex. Its spread is analogous to a contagious disease which can cause destruction within a few seconds. Viruses in a computer or computer networks can spread rapidly by various means such as access to online social networking sites like twitter, Facebook, and opening of email attachments. Thus, infections can go from being little dangerous to significantly harmful for a network. This paper proposed a simulation model that can predict the propagation of virus including the trend and the average infection rate using NetLogo software. Observed and simulated data sets were validated using chi-square tests. Results of the experiment have demonstrated accurate performance of the proposed model. The model could be very helpful for network administrators in mitigating the virus propagation and obstruct the spread of computer virus other than the usual prevention scheme particularly the use of antivirus software and inclusion of firewall security. </span>

Role of a corona field application in the physicochemical properties of stored strawberries

Grey mould disease caused by the fungus Botrytis cinerea Pers is widely distributed on strawberries as the dominant postharvest disease. Therefore, fruits have been treated using a pin-to-plate corona electrical field at a high voltage electric field (HVEF) intensity of 3.61, 4.56, and 5.13 kV·cm<sup>–1</sup> for 60 minutes. The result revealed that the corona discharge demolished the B. cinerea growth using 20 kV·cm<sup>–1</sup> for 10 min in the Petri dishes. In addition, the treated strawberries at 4.56 kV·cm<sup>–1</sup> had an average infection rate of 23.33% compared with non-treated samples rate of 45.33%. The HVEF-treated samples showed significantly lower mass losses. The analysis of variance showed that the HVEF did not significantly affect the total soluble solids content, pH, titratable acidity, and softness; however, the lower acidity affected the Botrytis cinerea growth. No significant differences were observed among the mean values in the colour change parameters and colour difference for 4.56 kV·cm<sup>–1</sup> compared with the control, while the lightness was significantly higher. The result show that the corona electrical field was able to demolish the B. cinerea growth, and an electric field intensity at 4.56 kV·cm<sup>–1</sup> was found to extend the strawberries' cold storage and to lead to a lower mass loss.

Resistance Correlations Influence Infection by Foreign Pathogens.

AbstractReciprocal selection promotes the specificity of host-pathogen associations and resistance polymorphisms in response to disease. However, plants and animals also vary in response to pathogen species not previously encountered in nature, with potential effects on new disease emergence. Using anther smut disease, we show that resistance (measured as infection rates) to foreign pathogens can be correlated with standing variation in resistance to an endemic pathogen. In Silene vulgaris, genetic variation in resistance to its endemic anther smut pathogen correlated positively with resistance variation to an anther smut pathogen from another host, but the relationship was negative between anther smut and a necrotrophic pathogen. We present models describing the genetic basis for assessing resistance relationships between endemic and foreign pathogens and for quantifying infection probabilities on foreign pathogen introduction. We show that even when the foreign pathogen has a lower average infection ability than the endemic pathogen, infection outcomes are determined by the sign and strength of the regression of the host's genetic variation in infection rates by a foreign pathogen on variation in infection rates by an endemic pathogen as well as by resistance allele frequencies. Given that preinvasion equilibria of resistance are determined by factors including resistance costs, we show that protection against foreign pathogens afforded by positively correlated resistances can be lessened or even result in elevated infection risk at the population level, depending on local dynamics. Therefore, a pathogen's emergence potential could be influenced not only by its average infection rate but also by resistance variation resulting from prior selection imposed by endemic diseases.

Adding the variable of environmental complexity into the COVID-19 pandemic equation.

In a recently published data-orientedstudyin March 2021, a relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and airborne pollen concentrationswas detected [1]. The studyincluded a data compilation of airborne pollen concentrations and SARS-CoV-2 infection numbers across 31 countries from both hemispheres and all inhabited continents from an inter-disciplinary team consisting of 154 scientists. The salient finding wasa significant and positive correlation between SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and airborne pollen concentrations in the spring of 2020 for the majority of examined countries, in synergy with air temperature and/or relative humidity (Fig. 1).

Infection Rate in the Population of Ticks <em>Hyalomma marginatum</em> in the Territory of the Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever (CHF) Natural Focus and Assessment of the Link with the CHF Incidence in the Stavropol Region

Objective of the study was to assess the infection rate in the population of the main CCHF virus vector Hyalomma marginatum and its impact on the CHF incidence in the Stavropol Region.Materials and methods. The data on spontaneous infection of H. marginatum ticks in the territory of the CHF natural focus in the Stavropol Region for the period 2012–2018 are presented. In total, more than 22.000 H. marginatum specimens pooled in 1546 samples were tested. The indication of CCHF virus was performed by PCR method using the reagent set for detecting RNA of the CCHF virus “AmplySens® CCHFV-FL” (produced by Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russia). To determine the individual infection rate in pools Beklemishev`s method was used. The data on CCHF incidence and amount of tick-bitten persons are taken from official statistics and Annual Epidemiological Report on CHF Incidence provided by the Rospotrebnadzor Administration in the Stavropol Region for the period of 2012–2018.Results and discussion. RNA of CCHF virus was detected in 161 (10.4 %) out of 1546 pooled ticks. The highest infection rate (20 %) was among nymphs. The infection rate for pooled males of H. marginatum was 11 % and for females – 8.5 %. Circulation of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus is confirmed in major part of the Stavropol Region. The average infection rate among H. marginatum population was 1.54 % for the period of 2012–2018, ranging from 0.23 % in 2014 to 2.97 % in 2017. It is established that the level of infection rate among H. marginatum population does not affect the CHF incidence in the Stavropol Region. Probably it is not the number of infected ticks in the population that determines the CHF incidence rate but their abundance.

Microsporidian and fungal infections in Lepidoptera and Orthoptera in Bulgaria

Fourteen hundred and sixty three larvae of 10 lepidopteran species collected from trees and bushes in the spring and summer of 2017, 2018 and 2019 from 5 localities in Northwest and South Bulgaria were investigated for presence of microsporidian and fungal pathogens. Also, 77 grasshopper individuals of Poecilimon thoracicus (Orthoptera, Tettiigoniidae) collected from various shrubs and perennial plants in the spring and summer of 2017 were examined. Conducted microscopic analyses showed the presence of microsporidian infection caused by Endoreticulatis poecilimonae in P. thoracicus and fungal infection in the larvae of mottled umber, Erannis defoliaria caused by Entomophaga auliciae. The studies showed that the average infection rate with the microsporidium E. poecilimonae was 57.1%. The prevalence of the fungus Entomophaga auliciae was 100% during the observed epizootic. E. auliciae is an efficient fungal pathogen which causes strong epizootics and can be used as classical or augmentation biological agent.

Identification of Source of Resistance to Horse Gram Yellow Mosaic Disease (HgYMD) in French Bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

Background: Horse gram yellow mosaic disease (HgYMD) is one of the major limiting factor for legumes production in India as it can cause economic loss up to 100%. Till date, horse gram yellow mosaic virus was rare to infect french bean, but now-a-days, it has become the major causal agent for yellow mosaic epidemics in the southern part of India. Few bush type varieties, resistant to yellow mosaic disease are released but not specifically resistant to HgYMD. So, systemic breeding work has been initiated to identify the resistant source for HgYMD in french bean. Methods: Seventyone genotypes of french bean were screened in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) with three replications under natural epiphytotic as well as artificial condition during Summer, 2018 at ICAR-IIHR, Bengaluru, India. Result: The genotypes varied for percent disease index (PDI), area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) and the apparent rate of infection per unit time period (r). Two varieties i.e., Jade-5058 and Arka Arjun were showing less PDI of 13.33 and 14.44, least average rate of infection of 0.64 and 0.65 and lowest AUDPC value of 350.54 and 359.16 respectively, compared to other genotypes. Average PDI of Arka Arjun and Jade-5058 were 13.33 and 12.22 under artificial screening, which were much lesser than susceptible check Arka Komal (PDI 92.22) and Arka Anoop (PDI 90.00). Resistant genotypes identified from this experiment can be used for breeding HgYMD resistant french bean lines.

Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Across the Provinces of Iraq

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The outbreak was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in January 2020 and a pandemic in March 2020. In this study, a complete statistical analysis for SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in entire Iraq, as well as for each governorate separately, is performed for the first time. The study covers a period that starts from the beginning of the pandemic, in the 24th of February 2020, until the 16th of July 2020. It was clear that, although the average number of the reported infection cases was low during February and March, the average infection rate (R0) was >1 (1.3- 2.1), indicating a high spreading rate. During April, when there was a complete lockdown, there was a slight decrease in the RO when the lockdown was lifted, the RO and the number of new cases started to increase rapidly until the 16th of July, when the average number of new cases for every 6 days reached 2281. The cumulative average number of new cases for every six days since the beginning of the pandemic in Iraq on 16 July was 598.4 ±862.4 (Mean± SD). The higher standard deviation than mean value (SD > mean) for most of the analyzes indicates that the official statistics are not reliable. This may be due to the need to conduct further studies as well as the presence of several cases that were not officially reported. In addition, the overall six-day average RO for entire Iraq was 1.4±0.5, with unstable values after the start of the pandemic and absence of monitoring at any time. On the other hand, this study reflects the variations in average RO, average new cases, average recovery rates, average death rates for every 6 days between the Iraqi provinces. Bagdad reported the highest average number of new cases; Babil and Salah aldin reported the highest RO values (2.8± 7.6, 2.5±7.7, respectively). Erbil and Kurkuk reported the highest average recovery rates (372.3± 1340.8, 158±433%, respectively). Babil and Dhiqar reported the highest average death rates (12.2± 63.3, 10.0± 25.8%, respectively), although Duhock did not record any deaths at the time of the study. The data require the attention of the Ministry of Health and Environment to fill in performance holes, as demonstrated by an out-of-control pandemic in Iraq.

Identification of effective spreaders in contact networks using dynamical influence

Contact networks provide insights on disease spread due to the duration of close proximity interactions. For systems governed by consensus dynamics, network structure is key to optimising the spread of information. For disease spread over contact networks, the structure would be expected to be similarly influential. However, metrics that are essentially agnostic to the network’s structure, such as weighted degree (strength) centrality and its variants, perform near-optimally in selecting effective spreaders. These degree-based metrics outperform eigenvector centrality, despite disease spread over a network being a random walk process. This paper improves eigenvector-based spreader selection by introducing the non-linear relationship between contact time and the probability of disease transmission into the assessment of network dynamics. This approximation of disease spread dynamics is achieved by altering the Laplacian matrix, which in turn highlights why nodes with a high degree are such influential disease spreaders. From this approach, a trichotomy emerges on the definition of an effective spreader where, for susceptible-infected simulations, eigenvector-based selections can either optimise the initial rate of infection, the average rate of infection, or produce the fastest time to full infection of the network. Simulated and real-world human contact networks are examined, with insights also drawn on the effective adaptation of ant colony contact networks to reduce pathogen spread and protect the queen ant.

Infection and Spread of Root Rot Caused by Heterobasidion parviporum in Picea abies Stands after Thinning: Case Studies on Former Pasture and Meadow Lands

Afforestation of former agricultural lands is a common practice in several countries. This is beneficial for avoiding diseases carry-over from previous forest generations and to expand forest areas. However, several biotic and abiotic risks have been reported in such stands, including a higher risk of Heterobasidion root rot after thinning. Therefore, this study investigates the spread of Heterobasidion root rot in three Picea abies (L.) Karst. plantations in Latvia established on former pasture and meadow lands and subjected to forest management practices. Initially, to determine average infection rate, we sampled all standing trees (157 in total) along transects within sampling areas. On the transects, the proportion of trees suffering from Heterobasidion root rot varied from 16 to 33% among stands. Based on those data and observed dieback over all the stands, we established circular sample plots in disease centres where all trees and stumps were analysed. The average infection rate in the circular plots varied from 34 to 41%. Obtained Heterobasidion isolates were analysed with species-specific primers and were all determined to be Heterobasidion parviporum Niemelä & Korhonen. Isolates were paired to detect the number and size of genotypes. Of 141 genets examined, 99 were isolated from only one tree or stump, while 42 formed genets including two or more trees or stumps indicating spread of infection through root contacts. The total number of Heterobasidion genets per hectare in studied stands varied from 72 to 484. The following conclusions were reached: (i) stands on former non-forest lands (pastures and meadows) can be highly susceptible to Heterobasidion infection after thinning, (ii) the pathogen may form expanding territorial clones in both former pasture and meadows and (iii) stump treatment with biological or chemical control agents is recommended to prevent Heterobasidion infections.