Average GDP Growth Research Articles

A Three-stage DEA Study on The Efficiency of Global Intelligent Innovation Based on Big Data

With the global intelligent technology coming, governments and organizations of various countries are speeding up the strategic layout of intelligent technology and competing to occupy the strategic commanding heights in global intelligent innovation. In this study, 101 countries from 18 regions were selected as samples. Based on the spiral collaborative innovation theory, from the perspectives of politics, industry, research, study and application, the number of Top 600 universities in the world majoring in computer science, R&D investment of hightech enterprises, and e-government investment level were selected as the input variables of intelligent innovation. Intelligence number of published papers linked with intelligent innovation, national high-tech exports, the government maturity level of artificial intelligence as the output variables. We use those input and output data to do the first stage DEA. Then, we choose the set up the number of national science and technology award, the average GDP growth rate nearly three years, intelligent technology industry in compensation levels, ICT development level as 4 environment variables, to figure out SFA analysis as the second stage DEA. Next we use three-stage DEA method to research global intelligent innovation efficiency with and without environment variables, and we find intelligent innovation efficiency presents obvious space characteristic: North America, Oceania and other regions to eliminate environment variables before and after the intelligent innovation efficiency is very high, West Africa, South Asia and other regions in the environment variable influences intelligent innovation efficiency improved significantly, and finally this study to provide path for intelligent innovation low efficiency region to improve their innovative efficiency of intelligent innovation development.

Development of Internet Supply Chain Finance Based on Artificial Intelligence under the Enterprise Green Business Model

At present, China’s economic development has made unprecedented progress, but it is also facing a severe situation, and the environmental carrying capacity has almost reached its limit. For this reason, the government vigorously promotes the construction of ecological civilization and advocates green development, circular development, and low-carbon development. Enterprise green operation is a business activity that integrates environmental protection into the whole process of enterprise operation and management. It requires the guiding ideology of business operations and every link of business management to be based on environmental protection. The purpose of this article is to solve the problems between the development of corporate GDP and green protection and analyze the impact of green business development policies on China’s corporate GDP. In order to further clarify the impact of green development on social development of Chinese enterprises, this paper investigates the economic and environmental aspects of green transformation enterprises nationwide. The research results show that China’s green enterprise development has achieved remarkable development achievements. The average growth rate of China’s green development GDP in recent years has begun to significantly exceed the average growth rate of green GDP over the same period. The average annual growth rate of the enterprise’s total economic growth of green environmental protection GDP has reached 11.58%, surpassing the average growth rate of the green GDP economy of the same period of 0.12%. Chinese companies have also achieved impressive corporate achievements following the implementation of the national guidelines for green development. For the first time in 31 inland provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China, chemical companies have achieved green production, and the average GDP growth rate has reached 8.75% for the first time.

Destination development by sport event tourism (SET): a case study of Thailand

Thailand is a canvas of opportunity upon which to design the quintessential pleasure dome of tourism through sports events if the socio-economic and political obstacles can be circumnavigated. Thailand’s economy is expected to reach average GDP growth of 3.2% between 2019 and 2023. However, few studies have examined how Thai sport and sport event tourism (SET) are efficiently or effectively promoted. In particular, it is encouraged to establish a model for a destination’s economic leverage, empirically underscored by industry thinktanks that propose how to utilize events to engender short and long-term benefits for a host destination. Such an approach can help countries such as Thailand to improve their destination development in the long-term. The current study reviewed the existing policy and systems of sport event tourism in Thailand and provided the better way to promote Thai sports and tourism. The results of this study show that the economic impact is significant for a destination by sport event tourism in Thailand. Some critical factors (e.g. government and local community involvement) should be discussed in future study.

Sociopolitical factors drive conservation planning timelines: A Canadian case study with global implications

With global biodiversity declines, government regulations protecting wildlife serve a key role in species persistence. Despite its importance, planning for protection can be a slow process, taking up to several decades. Such delays have led to species declines and extinction. Here, we investigate the factors driving time between conservation listing and the creation of a plan to support species recovery. Using Canada's Species at Risk Act as a case study, we used Cox proportional-hazards models to test how quickly a species designatable unit (DU) would receive a recovery plan given the reasons for its designation, conservation status, taxon, sociopolitical climate, the extent of scientific research, and public awareness. AIC model selection revealed that sociopolitical factors best explained how quickly a DU would receive a plan. We found that the time for a DU to receive a plan decreased the more often a majority government was in power, the fewer environmental bills passed, and the lower average GDP growth rate during planning. Our results highlight the need for greater consistency in species recovery planning based on conservation needs and status, regardless of sociopolitical climate. We recommend further examination of the relationship between time for recovery planning and plan effectiveness to elucidate how planning delays impact species recovery.

Spatiotemporal Simulation of Green Space by Considering Socioeconomic Impacts Based on A SD-CA Model

Green space is an important part of composite urban spatial systems. Therefore, reasonable planning strategies based on scientifically sound predictions of temporal and spatial changes in green space are critical for maintaining urban ecological environments, ensuring the health of residents, and maintaining social stability. However, existing forecasting models discount the impacts of urban social economy on green space. To address this gap, we constructed a system dynamics and cellular automata (SD-CA) coupling model that integrated the socioeconomic system and generated multiple scenarios. The results showed that at the current pace of socioeconomic development, Beijing’s central district will experience an overall reduction in green space and a decline in its integrity and diversity by 2035. If the population of this area reaches 9.29 million by 2035 and the GDP maintains an average growth rate of 6.1%, the areas of various land types will exhibit little change by 2035, and green space will be optimized to a certain extent. However, if the study area’s population decreases to 8.59 million by 2035 and the average GDP growth rate drops to 4.9%, the fragmentation, connectivity, and diversity index of green space will all increase significantly by 2035, and green space will be clearly optimized. We propose scientifically grounded strategies for maximizing the ecological functions and economic benefits of green space through optimized green space patterns, considered from a policy-oriented perspective of promoting socioeconomic development.

Investments in Latvia

The effective attraction of investments to the national economy is a key factor, which provides favourable conditions to perform structural changes in the national economy, regional development as well as promotes technical progress. Therefore, investments in the public and the private sectors conduce development of the national economy and provide conditions to increase the overall competitiveness of a country. The purpose of research is to evaluate investment processes in Latvia before and after the global financial crisis, revealing investment-related problems. Also, to calculate the level of the desired investment, which would ensure the Latvia’s average GDP growth of 5% per year, according to the target set by the NDP. The analysis employs different qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, such as: scientific literature and empirical research analysis, modelling tables, charts and schemes, calculations of average and relative values, grouping, comparison and other. Publications on investment and research by Latvian and international scholars are analysed seeking to define the investment role on the economic growth process. The authors use the data available in the Central Statistical Bureau of the Republic of Latvia and Eurostat data bases, reports by the Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Latvia, the World Bank, the OECD and other studies of international organizations, as well as information provided in the Internet. As a result of research there have been defined the investment policy directions and essential obstacles that delay investment attraction in Latvia.

Javni dug i privredni rast - dva scenarija upravljanja javnim dugom u Crnoj gori

Growing public debt is one of the biggest challenges faced by both developing and developed economies. Available research indicates the negative impact of public debt growth on economic growth. Applying the OLS method to the panel data for the countries of the Western Balkans and the period from 1998 to 2019, we found that one percentage growth in public debt leads to a decrease in the GDP growth rate by 0.036 percentage points. In addition, an increase in public debt by one percentage point leads to a decrease in the productivity growth rate by 0.079 percentage points. The results of the research for Montenegro as a case (two scenarios of fiscal policy and the period 2021-2040), showed that, if expenditures remain intact, due to the small difference between the forecasted average GDP growth rate in the period 2021-2040 and interest rates (assumed constant), such a scenario will lead to a slower change in the public debt-to-GDP ratio (23% decrease in two decades). In addition, the cost of interest in public debt in this scenario over the entire period is higher than 2% of GDP. If the fiscal policy is changed toward a reduction in government spending, the short-term GDP growth rate would be slightly reduced, but both the expenditures for interest (less than 2% of GDP) and public debt (decrease of 63% in two decades) would be reduced significantly. Although reduced government spending will have a negative impact on GDP growth in the short run, the country will benefit in the long run as reduced public debt will have a positive impact on GDP and productivity growth.

Criteria of the optimal currency area: an empirical analysis

Using annual data of 37 countries for 2010-2018, the paper studies the relationship between the average GDP growth rate and several exogenous variables analyzed in the context of the Optimal Currency Area (OCA), such as openness for trade and capital flows, inflation and synchronization of the business cycles, based on the cross-section regression model. Similar relationships are estimated for the quarterly time series of Ukraine’s economy for 2010-2020. The paper argues that the GDP rate is positively related to both the openness to foreign trade and lower inflation, a result in line with the implications of the OCA theory. However, a similar stimulating effect of the capital inflows for Ukraine significantly differs from the opposite outcome obtained in the estimates of the cross-section regression for 37 countries. Our results mean that openness for trade is not excessive in Ukraine. While most countries have experienced a decline in the share of exports and imports in GDP since 2010, an upward trend in Ukraine, similar to the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, can be viewed in a favourable way. As there is an inverse relationship between the average GDP growth rate and initial GDP per capita, it is an argument in support of the neoclassical long-term growth models. It is clear that middle-income countries experience the convergence of income in line with the provisions of the neoclassical theory. However, net capital inflows do not play any role in the convergence process, thus rejecting one of the pillars of the neoclassical theory. For the cross-section estimates, no link between economic growth and business cycle synchronization with the main trade partner is detected. On the other hand, economic growth in Ukraine is closely related to the GDP dynamics in the Eurozone, being an extra argument in favour of the European integration process in general and the OCA theory in particular. It is worth noting that the exchange rate depreciation brings about a GDP slowdown in Ukraine. Such an outcome implies that any efforts to compensate for the worsening of the external conditions with an accommodating exchange rate policy seem to be counterproductive. Also, it argues in favour of stable exchange rate arrangements. In a conventional way, an increase in Ukraine’s lending rate is associated with a decrease in the GDP growth rate.

Applying Bayesian methods for macroeconomic modeling of business cycle phases

In the present research, the features of applying two models for estimating macroeconomic dynamic in the USA are investigated: Bayesian vector autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregression with Markov switching. The research goal is to identify periods, structure of fluctuations and the main directions of interaction of the variables (real US GDP and employment) using Bayesian vector autoregression models. Models with Markov chains include many equations (structures). The switching mechanisms between these structures are controlled by an unobservable variable that follows a first-order Markov process. The analyzed variables were taken from the first quarter of 1953 to the third quarter of 2015. The model parameters were estimated on the basis of a prior for the multivariate normal distribution — the inverse Wishart distribution (a generalization of the Minnesota a priori distribution). Basing on the results of the estimation of the two-dimensional model with Markov Switching the average GDP growth rate and expected duration of phases was calculated. The estimated model is acceptable for describing the US economy and with high accuracy describes the probability of being in a particular phase in different periods of time. On the basis of medium-term forecasts, root mean squared errors of the forecast are calculated and a conclusion is made about the most appropriate model. Within the framework of this paper, impulse response functions are built allowing to evaluate how variables in the model react on fluctuations, shocks.

Is Economic Growth Working for Jobs? An Investigation of the Employment Generating Capacity of the Nigerian Economy

Nigeria has been best with the incidence of concurrent unemployment and a good run of economic growth thus calling to question the efficacy of economic growth to create jobs in the country. In this paper, we examine first whether there exists any relationship between economic growth and employment in the manner espoused by Okun’s law and then interpret the coefficient of the relationship as indicative of the capacity of the economy to translate growth into employment. Due to the unreliability of unemployment data in many developing countries we use the growth rate of employment as the dependent variable and thus expect to find a positive relationship with economic growth. A second model was specified with the growth rate of employment-to-population ratio as the dependent variable. Data were extracted from World Development Indicators and Penn’s World Table for 1961 to 2017. All the variables were level stationary from two different tests of their statistical properties. We thus estimate the Ordinary Least Squares for the short-run coefficients and explore the robustness of the ARDL to different orders of integration for the long-run form. Both establish the application of Okun’s law to Nigeria with the employment elasticity of GDP growth too small to generate discernible growth in employment. We estimated an average GDP growth of 16.22% over the long-run for the economy to keep a steady growth in employment.

Foreign Capital in Africa: Theories, Strategies and Novations

Historically, foreign capital has played a significantly larger role in the functioning of African economies than in other large developing regions. The past 20 years have been a period of rapid economic growth in Africa, accompanied by a dynamic growth in the continent’s investment attractiveness. The purpose of the article is to provide a political and economic analysis and assessment of the impact of foreign capital on the development of African countries, primarily from the point of view of achieving a difficult balance in their state policy between the interests of overcoming backwardness and ensuring economic growth, on the one hand, and overcoming the rudiments of economic dependence that have persisted since colonial times, on the other. The main attention is paid to the current stage of competition between American, Chinese and European capital in Africa For about thirty years, African countries have been pursuing a policy of encouraging the inflow of private direct investment, which, according to the leadership of these states, should contribute to sustainable growth and diversification of local economies. To a certain extent, these hopes were justified. Average annual GDP growth rates of the continent’s countries in the 21st century turned out to be the highest over long time periods for the entire period of independent development. In addition, there are certain achievements in the field of diversification of African economies and modernization of production facilities, including even the creation of separate facilities and technological production facilities (in South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania). that meet the requirements of the 4th industrial revolution. The negative shifts in the global investment climate stemming from the total sanctions and trade war unleashed by the West seriously complicate the conditions for the development of African countries. Objectively, they lead to a narrowing of the possibilities for attracting foreign capital to their economies and deriving structural advantages from the free use of FDI in their own interests. Prospects for improving the situation, it seems, for African countries today depend more on the possibilities of improving the global situation than on the efforts of national governments to create legal and economic conditions in the domestic capital markets. Otherwise, the decisive factors determining the volume and direction of the inflow of foreign capital to Africa will increasingly be the geopolitical decisions of large external players. The author concludes that at the same time, it is likely that in the medium-and long - term perspective, African countries will not only remain attractive but uneasy market for foreign capital to operate, but will gradually bypass many of the modern investment priority countries and regions in Europe, Asia and Latin America in terms of attractiveness.

ASSESSING LONG-RUN GROWTH PROSPECTS FOR THE UK’S REGIONS

The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK’s regions generated by combining a global macroeconometric model and a regional computable general equilibrium of the UK. A central macroeconomic scenario shows a national average annual GDP growth rate of 1.7 per cent to 2044. When the macroeconomic scenario is applied across regions, growth rates range from 1.6 per cent for Cambridge to 2.2 per cent for Pembrokeshire; the standard deviation is low at 0.07 per cent and the coefficient of variation is 0.04 per cent. In contrast, much wider variation is observed in the standard deviation for exports (0.36 per cent), investment (0.11 per cent) and consumption (0.14 per cent). The country results favour Scotland, which grows at an annual rate of 1.8 per cent, whereas Wales is the slowest growing of the countries at 1.7 per cent. Consistent with the macroeconomic analysis, international trade is the most important contributor to the regional variation in growth rates. We also analyse the effects of higher government consumption relative to the forecasts and find most regions are predicted to experience lower economic activity except the handful in which government consumption is a much higher share of GDP than average.

Real GDP growth rates and healthcare spending \u2013 comparison between the G7 and the EM7 countries

BackgroundAccelerated globalisation has substantially contributed to the rise of emerging markets worldwide. The G7 and Emerging Markets Seven (EM7) behaved in significantly different macroeconomic ways before, during, and after the 2008 Global Crisis. Average real GDP growth rates remained substantially higher among the EM7, while unemployment rates changed their patterns after the crisis. Since 2017, however, approximately one half of the worldwide economic growth is attributable to the EM7, and only a quarter to the G7. This paper aims to analyse the association between the health spending and real GDP growth in the G7 and the EM7 countries.ResultsIn terms of GDP growth, the EM7 exhibited a higher degree of resilience during the 2008 crisis, compared to the G7. Unemployment in the G7 nations was rising significantly, compared to pre-recession levels, but, in the EM7, it remained traditionally high. In the G7, the austerity (measured as a percentage of GDP) significantly decreased the public health expenditure, even more so than in the EM7. Out-of-pocket health expenditure grew at a far more concerning pace in the EM7 compared to the G7 during the crisis, exposing the vulnerability of households living close to the poverty line. Regression analysis demonstrated that, in the G7, real GDP growth had a positive impact on out-of-pocket expenditure, measured as a percentage of current health expenditure, expressed as a percentage of GDP (CHE). In the EM7, it negatively affected CHE, CHE per capita, and out-of-pocket expenditure per capita.ConclusionThe EM7 countries demonstrated stronger endurance, withstanding the consequences of the crisis as compared to the G7 economies. Evidence of this was most visible in real growth and unemployment rates, before, during and after the crisis. It influenced health spending patterns in both groups, although they tended to diverge instead of converge in several important areas.

Prospects for Economic Growth in Russia

The dynamics of the development of the Russian economy from 2013 to the first half of 2019 is considered. The potential of future economic growth until 2024 is estimated by an average annual GDP growth rate of 4%. The main drivers of growth are the population’s demand for durable goods, postponed due to lower incomes, as well as investments in fixed assets and human capital, the current level and share of which do not meet Russia’s requirements for joining the world’s top five countries by 2024. It is noted that there are reserves of capacities, increasing the intensity of the use of labor resources, and financing R&D and technological upgrades of production to accelerate dynamics and improve the quality of economic growth in the medium and long term. The internal and external constraints and risks of socioeconomic development are discussed briefly. The key role of science as an instrument for risk reduction and effective economic policy as a whole is emphasized.

Low-carbon development strategy of Russia considering the impact on the economy

The article considers the impact of national climate policy on the development of the Russian economy and energy sector. Implementation of an aggressive scenario (which is aimed at containing at any cost the rise in global temperature within 1.5 °C compared to the pre-industrial era) is unacceptable to Russia from socioeconomic perspective given it leads to lowering the average annual GDP growth rate by 1.8 percentage points by 2050. Effective long-term development strategy with low GHG emissions level should focus on structural and technological modernization of the economy; improve the absorption potential of the LULUCF sector; stimulate only those structural changes in the energy sector that involve production and technological chains within the country and do not provide for excessive price growth. Russia retains a significant potential for energy efficiency growth, and the necessary condition for activating this process is sustainable economic growth as it involves modernization of the production facilities and using available and competitive industrial capacities. The implementation of a reasonable scenario, based on these principles, would allow Russia to fulfil the nationally determined contributions within the Paris Agreement while ensuring economic growth at the rate not less than the global average one.

Стратегия низкоуглеродного развития: перспективы для экономики России

As a party to the Paris Agreement Russia pledged not to exceed the net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions’ level of 70–75% to that existed in 1990. Energy efficiency improvement, structural shifts in production and the increase of Russian forests’ carbon sink capacity were the key contributors to curbing the GHG emissions in Russia during the last 25 years. The decreasing carbon intensity of the GDP was a natural result of economic growth and implementation of voluntary business projects to improve the efficiency of the industrial sector using investments in modernization of the production facilities. Russia disposes significant potential to reduce GHG emissions, but the feasibility and efficiency of respective measures should be evaluated considering the implications to economic growth. Implementation of the socalled aggressive scenario to halt global temperature growth at any cost within 1.5 °C as compared to the pre-industrial era is unacceptable to Russia from socioeconomic perspective given its leading to lowering the average annual GDP growth rate by 1.8 percentage points by 2050. In addition, tough measures to reduce GHG emissions involve energy costs skyrocketing to unprecedented levels – from the current 13% of the GDP to 30% of the GDP by 2040. Such a burden would hardly be compatible with economic growth or, in any case, provide for the economic growth’s providing for improvement of the communities’ standard of living. Russia needs the long-term development strategy with low GHG emissions level focused on improving the quality of living, modernizing and increasing the competitiveness of the national economy. Such a strategy rests on the following principles: 1) Russia has been the world leader in the GHG emissions reduction since 1990, so no solid reason exists for its soonest switching to excessively stringent climate commitments which result in ungrounded additional restrictions to its socio-economic development pace; 2) The core impediment to sustainable development of Russia is not a high level of the GHG emissions, but economic stagnation. Given that the reasonable scenario of the GHG emissions reduction implies the development path that allows the national economy to grow at a rate of 3% average annual GDP as the least; 3) Action priorities in the area of the GHG sinking should involve improvement of the LULUCF sector potential by promoting sound natural resources management policy and voluntary projects to increase carbon sink and reservoir capacity of the forest and wetland ecosystems; 4) Action priorities to reduce GHG emissions assume the imperative and expediency of economic stimulating of the structural change in the energy sector that involves production and technological chains within the country and do not provide for excessive price growth. Such change includes increasing use of natural gas (as the most “clean” fossil fuel) and nuclear energy (given Russia’s leading position in the nuclear technology area), as well as cogeneration of electricity and heat. Pronounced increase in using renewables, energy storage systems and electric vehicles should be acceptable only if production of these is successfully localized and costs are reduced. Sustainable economic growth is a prerequisite for intensifying energy efficiency improvement as it involves modernization of the production facilities and using available and competitive industrial capacities. Specific measures targeted at energy savings will be inefficient given economic stagnation. A reasonable (smart) scenario of the Russia long-term economic development with the low GHG emissions level should comply with the principles above and its driving force propelled by structural and technological modernization of the economy that fully involves economic potential of the energy resource and power sector. The implementation of this development scenario would allow Russia to comply with the Paris Agreement national commitments while ensuring economic growth at the pace not yielding to that of the global average.

Capital Accumulation in the Center and Semiperipheries: A Comparative Analysis of the US, Spain, and Brazil

This paper presents a comparative analysis of capital accumulation in the US, Spain, and Brazil from 1990 to 2014, in order to analyze the peculiarities of the main contemporary economy (US), a developed one with a peripheral integration into the Eurozone (Spain), and a semiperipheral economy within a backward region (Brazil). This period is highlighted, especially for Spain and Brazil, by a neoliberal turn and certain monetary stability. Taking the US economy as a reference, Brazil achieved a higher average gDP and investment growth, but its capital-output ratio shows a relative high level. This economy also suffers from less capacity to produce a surplus in US dollars, and its productivity gap widens. In the case of Spain, its real-estate speculative boom has driven down both the profit rate and the productive efficiency of capital stock. Thus, while lacking an outstanding performance, the USA has kept its productive superiority in relation to Spain and Brazil.

Shadow economy and economic development: a panel cointegration and causality analysis

The main objective of the research is to study the link between the indicators of GDP and shadow economy. In the article the forms of impact of the shadow economy have been analysed. Its main social, political and economic implications have been determined. The analysis results of the indicators of the average GDP growth rates in EU member states in 1960-2016, showed that the current level of economic growth in Ukraine is much lower compared to other countries. Based on the analysis of static indicators of the social and economic stability (standard deviation, coefficient of variation, maximum and minimum value), direct and feedback links between the levels of economy shadowing and GDP have been demonstrated. In this case, the results of Granger test confirm specific hypotheses and determine the vectors of their interaction at different time horizons.

Shadow economy and economic development: a panel cointegration and causality analysis

The main objective of the research is to study the link between the indicators of GDP and shadow economy. In the article the forms of impact of the shadow economy have been analysed. Its main social, political and economic implications have been determined. The analysis results of the indicators of the average GDP growth rates in EU member states in 1960-2016, showed that the current level of economic growth in Ukraine is much lower compared to other countries. Based on the analysis of static indicators of the social and economic stability (standard deviation, coefficient of variation, maximum and minimum value), direct and feedback links between the levels of economy shadowing and GDP have been demonstrated. In this case, the results of Granger test confirm specific hypotheses and determine the vectors of their interaction at different time horizons.

Wyzwania rozwojowe w najszybciej rozwijających się krajach azjatyckich

Development challenges in the fastest growing Asian countriesOver the period from 2001 to 2017, 14 countries in Asia recoded an average annual GDP growth rate of more than 6%. The fastest growing Asian countries experienced rapid economic growth as a result of implementing various development strategies. Besides, to a different extent, they used their economic success to improve the standard of living of their citizens. After 17 years of fast economic growth they still face many development challenges. Among them, the most important are: elimination of extreme poverty among employees, reduction of income inequality in society, improving the standard of living and quality of life of citizens especially in rural areas, ensuring a better access to high quality maternal and child health services, and increasing access to social services for the whole society.