The total retail sales of social consumer goods is a comprehensive reflection of a country's consumption capacity, consumption structure and living standard, which is of great significance for evaluating a country's economic vitality and social development level. In recent years, with the continuous expansion of the consumer market and the improvement of consumers' purchasing power, the total retail sales of social consumer goods has continued to grow, and its role in the national economy has gradually increased. However, there are many factors that affect the total retail sales of social consumer goods, including economic environment, policies and regulations, consumer behavior and so on. Under this background, this paper takes Hainan Province as the empirical research object, and selects per capita disposable income, rural residents' per capita disposable income, gross domestic product, resident population at the end of the year and local government's general budget expenditure as explanatory variables to analyze the factors affecting the total retail sales of social consumer goods. The results show that the average disposable income of rural residents and the general budget expenditure of local governments are significant factors affecting the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan Province. Finally, the model is analyzed economically, and some conclusions are drawn, and some policy suggestions are put forward.