Average Annual Rate Of Change Research Articles

Five-year trend analysis of drug use among individuals 16 years of age and older injured in non-fatal motor vehicle crashes in the US

Objective To examine the prevalence of drug use among individuals (age 16+) injured in non-fatal motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) from 2019 to 2023 and assess regional differences based on US Census regions (i.e., West, Midwest, Northeast, and South), and thereby contribute to a comprehensive understanding of drug-related MVCs. Methods We examined emergency medical services data from 19 US states (January 2019 to December 2023) to determine the annual mean drug use prevalence among individuals (age 16+) injured in non-fatal MVCs. Differences in drug use prevalence were assessed using ANOVA with the Tukey-Kramer test for year-to-year comparisons. Adjusted Poisson regression models with random effect for states were used to compare trends to the baseline (i.e., 2019) and to assess regional differences. Results Among individuals (age 16+) injured in non-fatal MVCs, 62,310 had reported drug use. ANOVA results showed significant year-to-year differences in the prevalence of drug use among individuals injured in non-fatal MVCs, with an increase from 2019 to 2020 and a subsequent decrease from 2020 to 2023 (p < 0.05). Compared to the baseline year of 2019, the prevalence in 2020 was 1.34 times (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12, 1.61) the prevalence in 2019. The prevalence in 2022 and 2023 were similar to the 2019 prevalence. Although no significant associations were found between US regions and the overall mean prevalence from 2019 to 2023; there was a difference in the average annual rate of change in prevalence by region, with a 4.0% lower rate in the Midwest compared to the Northeast (p < 0.001). This signifies a need to monitor future trends for potential regional differences. Conclusions Drug use prevalence among individuals (age 16+) injured in non-fatal MVCs increased from 2019 to 2020; then decreased to levels reflecting baseline prevalence in 2019; with no significant regional differences in the overall mean crash-related drug use prevalence. These findings highlight the need for continuous surveillance across the US over an extended period. They also underscore the potential impact of environmental risk factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and the necessity to monitor how drug use prevalence related to non-fatal MVCs changes in the coming years.

Premature mortality trends in 183 countries by cancer type, sex, WHO region, and World Bank income level in 2000-19: a retrospective, cross-sectional, population-based study.

Cancer is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. By 2040, over 30 million new cancers are predicted, with the greatest cancer burden in low-income countries. In 2015, the UN passed the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 (SDG 3.4) to tackle the rising burden of non-communicable diseases, which calls for a reduction by a third in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases, including cancer, by 2030. However, there is a paucity of data on premature mortality rates by cancer type. In this study, we examine annual rates of change for cancer-specific premature mortality and classify whether countries are on track to reach SDG 3.4 targets. This is a retrospective, cross-sectional, population-based study investigating premature mortality trends from 2000-19 using the WHO Global Health Estimates data. All cancers combined and thirteen individual cancers in 183 countries were examined by WHO region, World Bank income level, and sex. The risk of premature mortality was calculated for ages 30-69 years, independent of other competing causes of death, using standard life table methods. The primary objective was to compute average annual rate of change in premature mortality from 2000 to 2019. Secondary objectives assessed whether this annual rate of change would be sufficient to reach SDG 3.4. targets for premature mortality by 2030. This study was conducted using data retrieved for the years 2000-19. Premature mortality rates decreased in 138 (75%) of 183 countries across all World Bank income levels and WHO regions, however only eight (4%) countries are likely to meet the SDG 3.4 targets for all cancers combined. Cancers where early detection strategies exist, such as breast and colorectal cancer, have higher declining premature mortality rates in high-income countries (breast cancer 48 [89%] of 54 and colorectal cancer 45 [83%]) than in low-income countries (seven [24%] of 29 and four [14%]). Cancers with primary prevention programmes, such as cervical cancer, have more countries with declining premature mortality rates (high-income countries 50 [93%] of 54 and low-income countries 26 [90%] of 29). Sex-related disparities in premature mortality rates vary across WHO regions, World Bank income groups, and by cancer type. There is a greater reduction in premature mortality for all cancers combined and for individual cancer types in high-income countries compared with lower-middle-income and low-income countries. However, most countries will not reach the SDG 3.4 target. Cancers with early detection strategies in place, such as breast and colorectal cancers, are performing poorly in premature mortality compared with cancers with primary prevention measures, such as cervical cancer. Investments toward prevention, early detection, and treatment can potentially accelerate declines in premature mortality. WHO.

Levels, trends and inequalities in mortality among 5-19-year-olds in Tanzania: Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Study (1995-2022).

For the past two decades, health priorities in Tanzania have focussed on children under-five, leaving behind the older children and adolescents (5-19 years). Understanding mortality patterns beyond 5 years is important in bridging a healthy gap between childhood to adulthood. We aimed to estimate mortality levels, trends, and inequalities among 5-19-year-olds using population data from the Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Tanzania and further compare the population level estimates with global estimates. Using data from the Magu HDSS from 1995 to 2022, from Kaplan Meir survival probabilities, we computed annual mortality probabilities for ages 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 and determined the average annual rate of change in mortality by fitting the variance weighted least square regression on annual mortality probabilities. We compared 5-19 trends with younger children aged 1-4 years. We further disaggregated mortality by sex, area of residence and wealth tertiles, and we computed age-stratified risk ratios with respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazard model to determine inequalities. We further compared population-level estimates in all-cause mortality with global estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and the Global Burden of Disease study by computing the relative differences to the estimates. Mortality declined steadily among the three age groups from 1995 to 2022, whereby the average annual rate of decline increased with age (2.2%, 2.7%, and 2.9% for 5-9-, 10-14-, and 15-19-year-old age groups, respectively). The pace of this decline was lower than that of younger children aged 1-4 years (4.8% decline). We observed significant mortality inequalities with boys, those residing in rural areas, and those from poorest wealth tertiles lagging behind. While Magu estimates were close to global estimates for the 5-9-year-old age group, we observed divergent results for adolescents (10-19 years), with Magu estimates lying between the global estimates. The pace of mortality decline was lower for the 5-19-year-old age group compared to younger children, with observable inequalities by socio-demographic characteristics. Determining the burden of disease across different strata is important in the development of evidence-based targeted interventions to address the mortality burden and inequalities in this age group, as it is an important transition period to adulthood.

The Influence of Urbanization on the Patterns of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mortality From 1999 to 2020.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related fatalities despite early diagnosis and treatment progress, creating a significant public health issue in the United States. This investigation utilized death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database to investigate HCC mortality patterns and death locations from 1999 to 2020. The objective was to analyze trends in HCC mortality across different population groups, considering the impact of urbanicity. In this study, death certificate data obtained from the CDC WONDER database were utilized to investigate the trends in HCC mortality and location of death between 1999 and 2020. The annual percent change (APC) method was applied to estimate the average annual rate of change during the specified timeframe for the relevant health outcome. Furthermore, including data on the location of death and geographic areas allowed us to gain deeper insights into the patterns and characteristics of HCC and its impact on different regions. Between 1999 and 2020, there were 184,073 reported deaths attributed to HCC, and data on the location of death were available for all cases. Most deaths occurred during inpatient admissions (34.93%) or at home (41.19%). The study also found that the highest age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) for HCC was observed among male patients, particularly among those identified as Asian or Pacific Islander. Variations in AAMR were determined based on the level of urbanization or rurality of the area, with higher rates observed in more densely populated and urbanized regions. In contrast, less urbanized and populated areas experienced a profound increase in AAMR over the past two decades. The HCC-related AAMRs have worsened over time for most ethnic groups, except for Asian or Pacific Islanders, which showed a reduction in APC despite having the worst AAMR. Although rural and less densely populated areas have substantially increased AAMR over the past two decades, more urbanized areas continued to have higher AAMR rates.

Circular manufacturing and Industry 5.0. assessing material flows in the manufacturing process in relation to e-waste streams

Abstract The article aims (1) to evaluate material flows in the manufacturing process reflecting the level of circular manufacturing of European Union countries and (2) to estimate the relationship between the level of circular manufacturing and the volume of e-waste put on the market, illustrating the implementation effect of Industry 5.0 technologies. A systematic country classification was created according to development conditions for environmentally sustainable enterprises and trends in e-waste volumes. Multidimensional data analysis and the linear ordering method were used to achieve the research objectives. The dynamics of changes in the identified variables were analysed using dynamics indexes and the average annual rate of change. Relationships were estimated using Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient. The main research result is the estimated synthetic development measure illustrating the level of circular manufacturing in the context of material flows. Significant differences were observed between the synthetic development measure values representing the level of circular manufacturing in European Union countries. This means countries’ circular manufacturing levels are significantly higher than others. Moreover, the values of correlation coefficients were estimated between the level of circular manufacturing and the volume of e-waste put on the market and between the average annual rate of change of the synthetic development measure and the average annual rate of change of the e-waste volume. The coefficient values do not confirm a statistically significant relationship between the indicated variables. Most countries have average conditions for developing environmentally sustainable businesses, but at the same time, they show negative trends in the volume of e-waste generated.

Smoking Susceptibility and Trends Among Nonsmoking Adolescents: An International Study.

Smoking susceptibility is defined as a lack of firm decision against smoking, usually starts in the preparation and/or initiation stages of smoking behavior, and is a strong predictor of smoking experimentation during adolescence. However, the recent global prevalence and trends in smoking susceptibility among adolescents are not well documented. This study assessed global smoking susceptibility and secular trends among nonsmoking adolescents. Smoking susceptibility was analyzed using the most recent data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey from 129 countries, where the data from each country were drawn from at least 1 survey conducted at any time between 1999 and 2020. Moreover, data from 82 countries were used to assess the average annual rate of change (AARC) in smoking susceptibility over time. Smoking susceptibility among nonsmoking adolescents was 19.6%. A U-shaped relationship was observed between susceptibility and a country's economic level. Most countries showed no changes in susceptibility over time. Countries with a significant upward trend in susceptibility were primarily high-income and upper middle-income countries in the American region. At the World Health Organization regional level, susceptibility significantly decreased in the European region (AARC: -3.5%; 95% confidence interval, -5.8 to -0.8); however, it significantly increased in the American region (AARC: 2.2%; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-3.1). Smoking susceptibility remains a serious public health challenge among adolescents worldwide. More public health policies are needed to reduce susceptibility and to control its upward trend in the American region and high-income countries.

Coverage, Trends, and Inequalities of Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Indicators among the Poor and Non-Poor in the Most Populous Cities from 38 Sub-Saharan African Countries.

Rapid urbanization is likely to be associated with suboptimal access to essential health services. This is especially true in cities from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where urbanization is outpacing improvements in infrastructure. We assessed the current situation in regard to several markers of maternal, newborn, and child health, including indicators of coverage of health interventions (demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods, at least four antenatal care visits (ANC4+), institutional birth, and three doses of DPT vaccine[diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus]) and health status (stunting in children under 5 years, neonatal and under-5 mortality rates) among the poor and non-poor in the most populous cities from 38 SSA countries. We analyzed 136 population-based surveys (year range 2000-2019), contrasting the poorest 40% of households (referred to as poor) with the richest 60% (non-poor). Coverage in the most recent survey was higher for the city non-poor compared to the poor for all interventions in virtually all cities, with the largest median gap observed for ANC4+ (13.5 percentage points higher for the non-poor). Stunting, neonatal, and under-5 mortality rates were higher among the poor (7.6 percentage points, 21.2 and 10.3 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively). The gaps in coverage between the two groups were reducing, except for ANC4, with similar median average annual rate of change in both groups. Similar rates of change were also observed for stunting and the mortality indicators. Continuation of these positive trends is needed to eliminate inequalities in essential health services and child survival in SSA cities.

ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN THE ORGANIC PRODUCTION SEGMENT IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA AND THE REGION

The aim of this paper is to identify the basic characteristics of organic production in the agricultural sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of determining the scope, trends and flows in the selected time period. In terms of competitiveness, special emphasis is placed on the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the region. That is, a comparative review with the countries of the region according to the available indicators of organic production within the data of the Research Institute for Organic Production (FiBL). The analysis is focused on the changes of relevant indicators for Bosnia and Herzegovina and the countries of the region in the period from 2010 to 2020. The analysis was made using methods of dynamic analysis (index numbers, average annual rate of change, trend) and comparison methods. The results of the research can be a starting point for policy makers in support of the development of the agricultural sector.

The Prevalence of Alert Pathogens and Microbial Resistance Mechanisms: A Three-Year Retrospective Study in a General Hospital in Poland.

The development of antibiotic resistance mechanisms hinders the treatment process. So far, there is limited data on the problem of bacterial resistance in hospitals in Central and Eastern Europe. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence of resistance mechanisms and alert pathogens based on reports regarding cultures of samples collected from general hospital patients in Poland in the period 2019-2021. This study examined the prevalence of resistance mechanisms and alert pathogens and the structure of microorganisms, including the type of diagnostic material in the hospital department. The frequency of occurrence and the trends were analysed based on Cochran's Q-test, relative change and the average annual rate of change (AARC). Of all 14,471 cultures, 3875 were positive for bacteria, and 737 were characterised by resistance mechanisms (19.0%). Alert pathogens were identified in 983 cases (24.6%), including pathogens isolated from blood samples. The most commonlyisolated bacteria were Escherichia coli (>20% of positive cultures), Enterococcus faecalis (7%), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (6%) increasing over time; Staphylococcus aureus (13%) was also found, but its proportion was decreasing over time. Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) was the most frequent resistance mechanism in Internal Medicine (IM) (p < 0.001) and the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) (p < 0.01), as well as in ICU-COVID; this increased over the study period (AARC ↑34.9%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) (AARC ↓50.82%) and AmpC beta-lactamase (AARC ↓24.77%) prevalence fell over time. Also, the number of alert pathogens was dominant in the IM (p < 0.01) and ICU (p < 0.001). The most common alert pathogen was ESBL-positive E. coli. Gram-negative rods constitute a significant epidemiological problem in hospitals, especially the growing trend of ESBL in IM and ICU, which calls for increased control of sanitary procedures.

Urban Sprawl and Changes in Landscape Patterns: The Case of Kisangani City and Its Periphery (DR Congo)

The rapid population growth in sub-Saharan Africa requires regular monitoring of the spatial expansion of cities in order to facilitate efficient urban planning. In this study, we quantified the dynamics of urban and peri-urban areas in the city of Kisangani from 1987 to 2021, based on morphological criteria. Results demonstrate continuous urban and peri-urban growth, with respective average annual change rates of 8.2% and 7.6%. The urban core area expanded from 13.49 km2 to 100.49 km2, resulting from an alternating process of diffusion and coalescence. Peri-urbanization indexes developed to assess the trend of the decline in urban densities indicate a phase of urban densification over the period 1987–2010 succeeded by a decline in urban density over the period 2010–2021 that is characterized by a large expansion of the peri-urban area. However, despite this trend observed between 2010 and 2021, the decrease in urban density was not effective between 1987 and 2021 in Kisangani, as the fraction of peri-urban area observed in 1987 remains equivalent to that observed in 2021. This suggests a continuity of urban densification despite increasing peri-urbanization.

Prevalence and changes of intimate partner violence against women aged 15 to 49 years in 53 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2021: a secondary analysis of population-based surveys

In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), intimate partner violence poses a substantial barrier to accomplishing target 5.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals: to eliminate all forms of violence against women and girls. Our study aimed to assess the prevalence and changes of intimate partner violence against women in LMICs. We also explored the association between women's empowerment and intimate partner violence. In this secondary analysis of population-based surveys, we obtained data from the nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in LMICs between 2000 and 2021. We selected countries with available data on the domestic violence module, and women aged 15 to 49 years who currently or formerly had a husband or partner, and who had provided information about intimate partner violence, were included in the analysis. We first estimated the weighted prevalence of intimate partner violence in LMICs with available data, and then we assessed the average annual rate of change using Poisson regression with robust error variance in a subset of countries with at least two surveys. We used multilevel analysis to investigate the association between intimate partner violence and women's empowerment measured at both the country and individual levels. Country-level empowerment was measured by gender inequality index, while individual-level empowerment considered social independence, decision making, and attitude to violence. A total of 359 479 women aged 15 to 49 years were included from 53 LMICs. 336 811 women from 21 countries with two surveys provided data for assessing the trends of intimate partner violence. The weighted prevalence of any type of intimate partner violence was 37·2% (95% CI 36·6 to 37·8). A significant overall decline in the prevalence of any type of intimate partner violence was observed with an average annual rate of change of -0·2% (95% CI -0·4 to -0·03); however six countries showed significant increasing trends, with average annual rates of change ranging from 1·2% (95% CI 0·7 to 1·7) in Nigeria to 6·6% (5·3 to 7·8) in Sierra Leone. Notably, the prevalence of psychological intimate partner violence has risen (average annual rate of change, 2·3% [95% CI 2·1 to 2·6]), reflected in increased rates across eight countries. Higher levels of country-level women's empowerment were associated with a lower risk of intimate partner violence: women from countries with the highest tertile of gender inequality index had an increased odds of any type of intimate partner violence (odds ratio 1·58 [95% CI 1·12 to 2·23]). Similarly, better individual-level women's empowerment also showed significant associations with a lower risk of intimate partner violence. The prevalence of intimate partner violence remains high, and some countries have shown an increasing trend. The strong relationship between both country-level and individual-level women's empowerment and the prevalence of intimate partner violence suggests that accelerating women's empowerment could be one strategy to further reduce intimate partner violence against women. National Natural Science Foundation; Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University; and Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.

Evaluation of types of product reproduction in agricultural organizations

It is emphasized that reproduction in agriculture has its own characteristics, which is due to the decisive influence of the natural biological system, i.e. land, plants, animals. Natural and climatic conditions directly affect cultivated crops in crop production. Agricultural organizations of the autonomy grow wheat, barley, peas, corn, sunflower, rapeseed, fruits and grapes. These crops are leading; they occupy more than 95% of the land in cultivation. In this regard, the article examines the production indicators of these crops over the past 20 years. Calculations to determine the average annual rate of change in the gross harvest of these crops showed that the production of wheat, corn, sunflower, rapeseed and fruits is characterized by expanded reproduction. To substantiate the factors of production growth, calculations were made to determine the average annual growth rates of cultivation areas and yields. When comparing these data, the excess of the growth rate of areas over the increase in productivity indicates an extensive type of reproduction, with the opposite ratio, an intensive type of reproduction takes place.It is noted that the production of wheat and sunflower was carried out mainly in an extensive way, since the average annual growth rate of areas outpaced the growth rate of yields. The production of rapeseed was carried out mainly in an intensive way - the growth rate of productivity outstripped the growth of sown areas. The cultivation of corn and fruits was carried out on an intensive basis: in the face of a decrease in the area of cultivation of crops, an increase in the gross harvest was ensured by increasing the yield of crops. The article used economic-mathematical, abstract-logical and graphic methods of research.

Impacts of vegetation restoration on soil erosion in the Yellow River Basin, China

Soil erosion is a serious and complex environmental problem, which directly leads to soil degradation and reduces land productivity. Analyzing the effect of vegetation restoration on soil erosion is the main way to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of vegetation restoration to soil erosion in semi-arid. This study utilized the RUSLE model and Geodetector method to quantitatively characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of soil erosion and the contribution of FVC to erosion mitigation in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) since the implementation of the Grain for Green Project (GGP). The main findings are concluded as follows: (1) The fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in the YRB showed an overall increasing trend, with an average annual change rate of 0.006 a−1. (2) Soil erosion in YRB increased from 1999 to 2010, with a 10% increase in soil erosion intensity, and from 2010 to 2018, soil erosion improved significantly with a 31% decrease in soil erosion. The severe erosion areas were mainly concentrated in the Loess Plateau (LP) and the source area of the Yellow River (YR), which generally showed northeast-southwest banding changes. (3) FVC has a relatively stronger explanatory power for soil erosion in the YRB. FVC explained 5% of soil erosion, but the combination of FVC and land use, as well as the combination of FVC and slope, collectively explained 47% of soil erosion. The ecology of the YRB greatly benefits from the implementation of the GGP and other water conservation projects. But there are still necessities to formulate targeted soil and water conservation measures base on careful investigation of local conditions.

Trends in Colorectal Cancer Mortality in the United States, 1999 - 2020.

The United States faces a significant public health issue with colorectal cancer (CRC), which remains the third leading cause of cancer-related fatalities despite early diagnosis and treatment progress. This investigation utilized death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging OnLine Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database to investigate trends in CRC mortality and location of death from 1999 to 2020. Additionally, the study utilized the annual percent change (APC) to estimate the average annual rate of change over the specific time period for the given health outcome. Incorporating the location of death in this study served the purpose of identifying patterns related to CRC and offering valuable insights into the specific locations where deaths occurred. Between 1999 and 2020, there were 1,166,158 CRC-related deaths. The age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) for CRC consistently declined from 20.7 in 1999 to 12.5 in 2020. Men had higher AAMR (18.8) than women (13.4) throughout the study. Black or African American patients had the highest AAMR (21.1), followed by White (15.4), Hispanic/Latino (11.8), American Indian or Alaska native (11.4), and Asian or Pacific Islanders (10.2). The location of death varied, with 41.99% at home, 28.16% in medical facilities, 16.6% in nursing homes/long-term care facilities, 7.43% in hospices, and 5.80% at other/unknown places. There has been an overall improvement in AAMR among most ethnic groups, but an increase in AAMR has been observed among white individuals below the age of 55. Notably, over one-quarter of CRC-related deaths occur in medical facilities.

Time trends and projections in the prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus in Queensland, Australia, 2009-2030: Evidence from the Queensland Perinatal Data Collection.

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is the fastest-growing type of diabetes in Australia. We aimed to assess the time trends during 2009-2018 and projections of GDM in Queensland, Australia up to 2030. The study data were from the Queensland Perinatal Data Collection (QPDC) and included data on 606 662 birth events with the births reported from at least 20 weeks gestational age or birth weight at least 400 g. Bayesian regression model was used to assess the trends in the prevalence of GDM. The prevalence of GDM increased from 5.47 to 13.62% from 2009 to 2018 (average annual rate of change, AARC = +10.71%). If the trend remains the same, the projected prevalence will increase to 42.04% (95% uncertainty interval = 34.77-48.96) by 2030. Observing AARC across different subpopulations, we found that the trend of GDM increased markedly among women living in inner regional areas (AARC = +12.49%), were non-Indigenous (AARC = +10.93%), most disadvantaged (AARC = +11.84%), aged either of two age groups (AARC = +18.45% and + 15.17% for <20 years and 20-24 years, respectively), were with obesity (AARC = +11.05%) and smoked during pregnancy (AARC = +12.26%). Overall, the prevalence of GDM has sharply increased in Queensland, and if this trend continues, about 42% of pregnant women will experience GDM by 2030. The trends vary across different subpopulations. Therefore, targeting the most vulnerable subpopulations is vital to prevent the development of GDM.

Study of Time-Frequency Domain Characteristics of the Total Column Ozone in China Based on Wavelet Analysis

Ozone is a very important trace gas in the atmosphere, it is like a “double-edged sword”. Because the ozone in the stratosphere can effectively help the earth’s organisms to avoid the sun’s ultraviolet radiation damage, the ozone near the ground causes pollution. Therefore, it is essential to explore the time-frequency domain variation characteristics of total column ozone and have a better understanding of its cyclic variation. In this paper, based on the monthly scale dataset of total column ozone (TCO) (September 2002 to February 2023) from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) carried by NASA’s Aqua satellite, linear regression, coefficient of variation, Mann-Kendall (M-K) mutation tests, wavelet analysis, and empirical orthogonal function decomposition (EOF) analysis were used to analyze the variation characteristics of the TCO in China from the perspectives of time domain, frequency domain, and spatial characteristics. Finally, this study predicted the future of TCO data based on the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model in the time series algorithm. The results showed the following: (1) From 2003 to 2022, the TCO in China showed a slight downward trend, with an average annual change rate of −0.29 DU/a; the coefficient of variation analysis found that TCO had the smallest intra-year fluctuations in 2008 and the largest intra-year fluctuations in 2005. (2) Using the M-K mutation test, it was found that there was a mutation point in the total amount of column ozone in 2016. (3) Using wavelet analysis to analyze the frequency domain characteristics of the TCO, it was observed that TCO variation in China had a combination of 14-year, 6-year, and 4-year main cycles, where 14 years is the first main cycle with a 10-year cycle and 6 years is the second main cycle with a 4-year cycle. (4) The spatial distribution characteristics of the TCO in China were significantly different in each region, showing a distribution characteristic of being high in the northeast and low in the southwest. (5) Based on the EOF analysis of the TCO in China, it was found that the variance contribution rate of the first mode was as high as 52.85%, and its spatial distribution of eigenvectors showed a “-” distribution. Combined with the trend analysis of the time coefficient, this showed that the TCO in China has declined in the past 20 years. (6) The SARIMA model with the best parameters of (1, 1, 2) × (0, 1, 2, 12) based on the training on the TCO data was used for prediction, and the final model error rate was calculated as 1.34% using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) index, indicating a good model fit.

Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Inputs in China over the Past Three Decades

Global warming has become one of the major threats to the security of human survival, security, and sustainable development. Agricultural production has been widely suspected as one of the main sources of anthropogenic carbon emissions. Analyzing the changing characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions is of great significance for the mitigation of global climate change and the sustainable development in agriculture. Taking China, a large agricultural country, as an example, this study used the empirical model to quantify carbon emissions from agricultural inputs from 1991 to 2019, and analyzed the driving factors using ridge regression. We found that agricultural carbon emissions in China have been on the rise in the past 30 years, but at a markedly slower pace. From 2008 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of agricultural carbon emissions was 1.47%, down significantly from 2.92% between 1991 and 2007. The carbon emissions per unit of planting area showed an overall increasing trend, which grew from 179.35 t ce/km2 to 246.26 t ce/km2, with an average annual growth rate of 1.13%. The carbon emissions per unit of agricultural output mainly showed a decreasing trend, which decreased from 0.52 kg ce/CNY to 0.06 kg ce/CNY, with an average annual rate of change of −7.42%. China’s agricultural carbon emissions were closely related to macro-policies. Fertilizer inputs, agricultural industry structure, and energy use intensity were significantly positively correlated with carbon emission intensity. The degree of urban feedback to rural areas, public investment in agriculture, and large-scale planting were significantly negatively correlated with carbon emission intensity, but the impacts of these factors had a “lag effect”. In order to reduce carbon emissions from agriculture and promote development in green agriculture, we suggest that the government should further increase the degree of urban feedback to rural and public investment in the agricultural sector. In addition, large-scale agricultural production should be encouraged to increase resource efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.

Impacts of National Highway G214 on Vegetation in the Source Area of Yellow and Yangtze Rivers on the Southern Qinghai Plateau, West China

Engineering corridors on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau have substantially modified the regional ecosystem functions and environment, resulting in changes in the alpine ecosystem. In addition, the building and operation of these engineering corridors have led to rapid permafrost degradation, which in turn has impacted local vegetation along these corridors. This study investigated vegetation changes and their driving factors by the methods of coefficient of variation, correlation analysis, and GeoDetector in a 30 km wide buffer zone at each side along the National Highway G214 (G214) at the northern and southern flanks of the Bayan Har Mountains in part of the source area of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers on the southern Qinghai Plateau, West China. The following results were obtained: (1) The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in Growing Season (NDVIgs) rose slightly in 2010–2019, with an average annual change rate of 0.006/a. Patterns of NDVIgs along the G214 exhibited “low at the northern flank and high at the southern flank of the Bayan Har Mountains”. (2) Spatially, average NDVIgs increased from the first buffer zone at the distance of 0–10 km from the highway centerline to the second buffer zone at 20–30 km perpendicularly away from the G214. Furthermore, the first buffer zone had the lowest coefficient of variation, possibly due to a low vegetation recovery as a result of the greatest influence of the G214 on NDVIgs at 0–10 km. (3) Furthermore, annual precipitation (AP) was the dominant factor for significantly (p &lt; 0.01) and positively influencing the variations in NDVIgs (R = 0.75, p &lt; 0.01). Additionally, NDVIgs was more strongly influenced by the two combined factors than any single one, with the highest q-value (0.74) for the interactive influences of AP and annual average air temperature (AAAT) and followed by that of the AP and mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the depth of zero annual amplitude (15 m). Evidently, the construction and operation of the G214 have directly and indirectly affected vegetation through changing environmental variables, with significant impacts on NDVIgs extended at least 20 km outwards from the highway. This study helps better understand the environmental impacts along the engineering corridors in elevational permafrost regions at mid and low latitudes and their management.

Multi-scenario Evolution of Tourism Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi Province under the “Carbon Peak and Neutrality” Target

Regional tourism needs to respond positively to the “carbon peak and neutrality” target, and the key and most difficult aspect is the prediction of carbon emissions. In this paper, the total carbon emissions of the tourism industry in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2019 are calculated by using terminal consumption and the tourism development coefficient. The factors influencing the carbon emissions of the tourism industry are studied by means of logarithmic mean weight Divisia index decomposition (LMDI), and the timing of the tourism industry carbon peak is predicted by combining the extensible random environmental impact assessment model (STIRPAT) and scenario analysis method. The results show three key aspects of this system. (1) In the historical period, the carbon emissions of the tourism industry in Jiangxi Province increased from 71.365×104 t in 2000 to 2342.456×104 t in 2019, with an average annual change rate of 21.09%. The scale of tourism investment was the most important factor affecting the carbon emissions of tourism industry in this period. (2) The main factor that will affect the change of tourism carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province in the future is the carbon emission intensity, and its influence coefficient reaches 0.810. The degrees of influence of tourism income, tourism number and tourism investment follow in sequence. (3) The peak time of carbon emissions from tourism in Jiangxi Province varies under different scenarios. In the baseline scenario, it is estimated to be around 2035, and the average annual change rate will be –0.88%. In the medium- and low-carbon scenarios, the peak carbon emissions will be realized around 2030 and 2025, with the average annual change rates being –1.11% and –1.58%, respectively, indicating that the government's low-carbon policy will have an impact on the carbon emission intensity of tourism and promote the tourism industry in Jiangxi Province to advance by 5 to 10 years. This study provides a theoretical basis for allowing regional tourism to achieve its carbon peak in advance, which supports the prediction of the whole country's “carbon peak and neutrality”, and also provides a measurement basis for the realization of carbon neutralization in tourism.

Time trends, projections, and spatial distribution of low birthweight in Australia, 2009-2030: Evidence from the National Perinatal Data Collection.

Infants with low birthweight (LBW, birthweight <2500 g) have increased in many high-resource countries over the past two decades. This study aimed to investigate the time trends, projections, and spatial distribution of LBW in Australia, 2009-2030. We used standard aggregate data on 3 346 808 births from 2009 to 2019 from Australia's National Perinatal Data Collection. Bayesian linear regression model was used to estimate the trends in the prevalence of LBW in Australia. Wefound that the prevalence of LBW was 6.18% in 2009, which has increased to 6.64% in 2019 (average annual rate of change, AARC=+0.76%). If the national trend remains the same, the projected prevalence of LBW in Australia will increase to 7.34% (95% uncertainty interval, UI=6.99, 7.68) in 2030. Observing AARC across different subpopulations, the trend of LBW was stable among Indigenous mothers, whereas it increased among non-Indigenous mothers (AARC=+0.81%). There is also an increase among the most disadvantaged mothers (AARC=+1.08%), birthing people in either of two extreme age groups (AARC=+1.99% and +1.53% for <20 years and ≥40 years, respectively), and mothers who smoked during pregnancy (AARC=+1.52%). Spatiotemporal maps showed that some of the Statistical Area level 3 (SA3) in Northern Territory and Queensland had consistently higher prevalence for LBW than the national average from 2014 to 2019. Overall, the prevalence of LBW has increased in Australia during 2009-2019; however, the trends vary across different subpopulations. If trends persist, Australia will not achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of a 30% reduction in LBW by 2030. Centering and supporting the most vulnerable subpopulations is vital to progress the SDGs and improves perinatal and infant health in Australia.