Average Annual Percentage Research Articles

Characteristics and trend analysis of cancer mortality among residents of the Xizang autonomous region, 2014–2023

BackgroundThe Xizang Autonomous Region, located in China’s southwestern frontier with an average elevation of 4000 m, faces socioeconomic development challenges influenced by its natural environment and regional disparities. Previous studies have indicated that cancer ranks as the fourth leading cause of death among permanent residents in Xizang. However, there is a paucity of research on the trends and characteristics of cancer mortality in this region. This study aims to analyze mortality data from Xizang between 2014 and 2023 to elucidate the characteristics and trends of cancer deaths and to provide a foundation for developing effective cancer prevention and treatment strategies.MethodsMortality data for cancer patients from 2014 to 2023 were extracted from the Death Information Registration and Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The population data for Xizang were obtained from the Basic Information System of the Chinese CDC. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates were computed via SPSS software, and joinpoint regression models were employed to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) in mortality trends.ResultsBetween 2014 and 2023, the crude mortality rate (CMR) for cancer increased from 31.38 per 100,000 to 49.37 per 100,000, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) rose from 50.15 per 100,000 to 66.42 per 100,000, with annual increases of 4.59% and 2.12%, respectively. The leading causes of cancer death are liver cancer, stomach cancer, lung cancer, esophageal cancer, and cervical cancer.ConclusionCancer mortality in Xizang is increasing, with higher rates in men than in women, although the rate of increase is faster in women. Mortality rates increase with age, predominantly affecting middle-aged and elderly populations. Liver and stomach cancers are the primary contributors to cancer mortality. Given the severe cancer control situation, comprehensive prevention strategies and early diagnosis and treatment for high-risk populations are crucial.

Predictive efficacy of different diagnostic criteria for sarcopenia in osteoporosis and fractures

This study aims to compare the predictive efficacy of different diagnostic criteria for sarcopenia in forecasting the occurrence of osteoporosis (OP) and fractures. Utilizing data from the Global Health Data Exchange, the burden of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) was assessed through indicators including incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years. Trends in MSD burden were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percentage change. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on clinical data from 8180 patients who received care at the Endocrinology Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University between April 2008 and June 2024. Patients were categorized into four groups based on sarcopenia diagnostic criteria established by the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP), the International Working Group on Sarcopenia (IWGS), the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia 2019 (AWGS 2019), and the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Sarcopenia Project. We compared demographic data, chronic disease history, body composition, bone mineral density, FRAX fracture risk, and the incidence of osteoporosis to evaluate the predictive validity of each diagnostic criterion for osteoporosis and fracture risk in patients with sarcopenia. (1) The prevalence of sarcopenia, as defined by the IWGS, FNIH, EWGSOP, and AWGS 2019 diagnostic criteria, was 39.2%, 28.3%, 55.0%, and 30.1%, respectively. (2) After adjusting for age, gender, and body mass index (BMI), a significant association between osteoporosis and sarcopenia was observed across all four diagnostic criteria (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, sarcopenia, as determined by the EWGSOP and AWGS 2019 criteria, was associated with a moderate-to-high risk of major osteoporotic fractures and hip fractures within the next 10 years (P < 0.05). (3) Spearman’s correlation coefficients for sarcopenia with Procollagen type I N-terminal propeptide (PINP), appendicular lean mass (ALM), ALM/height squared (Ht2), and ALM/BMI were − 0.034, − 0.308, − 0.261, and − 0.252, respectively. PINP, ALM, ALM/Ht2, and ALM/BMI were identified as significant factors influencing osteoporosis, with odds ratios of 0.996, 0.765, 0.535, and 0.010, respectively. The burden of MSDs is increasing in China and globally, driven primarily by population aging. Sarcopenia is significantly associated with osteoporosis and a moderate-to-high risk of fracture when diagnosed using the FNIH and EWGSOP criteria. PINP and ALM are protective factors against osteoporosis development in patients with sarcopenia.

Global trend and disparity in the burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2049: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundObesity and overweight are increasingly recognized as significant risk factors for the incidence and progression of thyroid cancer (TC). However, its epidemiological investigation including the disease burden and its trends remains insufficiently explored. This research aimed to reveal and predict the disease burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index (TC-HBMI), which would offer significant references for focused prevention and disease management methods.MethodsThe study extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Deaths case, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) case, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were obtained from GBD 2021 to assess the global burden from 1990 to 2021. Decomposition analysis explored the driving factors to TC-HBMI. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in ASMR and ASDR of TC-HBMI was determined to analyze temporal trends by Joinpoint regression analysis. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to project the disease burden untill 2049.ResultsThe global deaths and DALYs of TC-HBMI were 5,255 and 144,955 in 2021, exhibiting a continuous growth trend over the past 32 years. The ASMR and ASDR for males showed faster growth. The disease burden was greatest among middle-aged and older populations, while the rapidly increase in adolescents should not be overlooked. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions and Latin America each recorded the highest disease burden within their respective categories of SDI regions and GBD regions. Additionally, Predictive models indicated a gradual upward trend from 2022 to 2049.ConclusionThe study revealed that the global disease burden of TC-HBMI had continuously increased from 1990 to 2021, and it was predicted to escalate until 2049. The findings emphasize the need for more detailed TC screening and weight loss measures tailored to specific regions and populations, which would benefit efforts to curb the projected rise in TC-HBMI deaths and DALYs.

HIV mortality trends among the United States population, from 1999–2023: a CDC wonder database study

Background Despite the progress made in managing HIV, the mortality trends among general population in the US remains understudied. Our aim is to analyse the trends in HIV-related mortality among US residents by demographic characteristics and association with social vulnerability index (SVI). Methods We abstracted national mortality data from the multiple cause of death files in the CDC WONDER database. The ICD-10 Codes (B20-B24) were used to identify HIV deaths among US population from 1999 to 2023. Trends in age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis. For 10-year increment age-groups, crude mortality rates were reported. Results were expressed as annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and 95% confidence intervals (CI). SVI was obtained from CDC for each county. Results Between 1999 and 2023, a total of 271,932 HIV-infected patients died within the US (AAMR= 3.4 per 100,000; 95% CI: 3.3–3.5). Overall mortality trends decreased at an annual rate of −4.34% (95% CI: −5.25, −3.41) from 1999 through 2023 in the whole population. Specifically, the trends are higher among males age groups 45–54 years (overall rising in age 65 and above), African Americans, South Region and Large metropolitan areas. States in the top 90th percentile included District of Columbia, Florida, Maryland, Louisiana, New York, and Georgia. Union county followed by Miami-Dade are highly affected within Florida State which ranks second after District of Columbia. SVI was independently associated with HIV mortality with strong association throughout the United States counties. Conclusions HIV mortality among US population has decreased overall from 1999 to 2023, but with varying trends by race and ethnicity. This highlights the need for enhanced public health surveillance to better understand the scope of HIV mortality and identify high-risk demographic and regional subgroups for targeted interventions.

Global temporal trends in maternal hypertensive disorders incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2021 based on the global burden of disease study

Maternal hypertensive disorders (MHD) remain a significant global health challenge. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of MHD from 1990 to 2021, focusing on incidence and mortality trends across different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions and age groups. We utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study methodologies to analyze MHD incidence and mortality. Temporal trends were examined using Joinpoint regression to calculate annual percentage changes and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence interval (CI). Age-period-cohort models were applied to analyze trends across different age groups, time periods, and birth cohorts, with particular attention to SDI regions. Globally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of MHD decreased from 554.35 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 461.38t o 675.43) per 100,000 in 1990 to 461.94 (95% UI: 392.73 to 551.65) in 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of − 0.6% (95% CI: −0.67% to − 0.53%). The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) declined from 1.94 (95% UI: 1.71–2.15) per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.97 (95% UI: 0.81–1.18) in 2021 (AAPC − 2.18%; 95% CI: −2.3% to − 2.06%). Low SDI regions faced the highest burden. Age-period-cohort analyses revealed heterogeneous trends across age groups and SDI regions, with younger age groups (particularly ages 15–19 years) showing the most substantial improvements, demonstrated by the steepest declines in both incidence (-1.62% per year) and mortality rates (-2.57% per year). More recent birth cohorts demonstrated greater improvements, with declining risks of both incidence and mortality compared to earlier birth cohorts. Despite global reductions in MHD incidence and mortality over the past three decades, substantial disparities persist across regions and age groups. Targeted interventions, particularly in low SDI regions and among high-risk age groups, are crucial for further reducing the global burden of MHD.

The global, regional, and national burdens of dementia in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021: A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

The global population is aging, and as a consequence, the prevalence of dementia is increasing rapidly. This study aims to analyze trends in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and health inequalities for dementia over the period 1990 to 2021. The incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year rates of dementia in the GBD 2021 database were analyzed at the global, national, and regional levels for the period 1990 to 2021 using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The trends over the period were assessed using a combination of age-standardized rates, average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), and a sociodemographic index. The analysis revealed that, from 1990 to 2021, the global AAPC in dementia incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years amounted to 0.06 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05-0.09), 0.09 (95% CI: 0.08-0.10), and 0.03 (95% CI: 0.01-0.05), respectively. Conversely, the mean AAPC in age-standardized mortality rate remained stable at 0 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.03). The age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of dementia exhibited a positive association with sociodemographic index during the study period. The 3 regions with the highest mean AAPC in age-standardized mortality rate among the 21 GBD regions were South Africa, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings of the study indicate that the burden of dementia increases with age and is projected to remain on an upward trend until 2040. The GBD has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, and the prevention and control of dementia represents a long-term and formidable challenge.

Uterine Rupture Trends in Patients Pursuing Trial of Labor After Cesarean in the United States from 2010 to 2022.

Uterine Rupture Trends in Patients Pursuing Trial of Labor After Cesarean in the United States from 2010 to 2022.

Urticaria in China: incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years compared with G20 countries: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.

Urticaria has become a major public health challenge in China, yet comprehensive national data assessments are lacking. This study analyzes the burden of urticaria in China compared to G20 countries from 1990 to 2021. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we examined the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of urticaria by age and sex in China. Temporal trends were assessed using Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) estimates. We also decomposed the changes in new cases, patient numbers, and urticaria burden in G20 countries and globally from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, China reported 17.30million (95% uncertainty interval, 15.37-19.25) new cases of urticaria, 9.87million (8.72-10.99) existing cases of urticaria, and 0.59million (0.39-0.82) DALYs due to urticaria, ranking second among G20 countries. These metrics peaked in females under 5 years old. Age-standardized rates in China were lower than the global average and remained stable from 1990 to 2021. The under-5 age group showed the fastest growth in prevalence and DALY rates. The number of urticaria patients increased by 8.52%, with population growth contributing 19.86%, aging - 11.31%, and age-specific prevalence - 0.03%. Despite stable age-standardized rates, the absolute burden of urticaria in China has risen, particularly among females under 5 years old, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions. Improving public emergency awareness and response is critical for urticaria patients, who may develop severe systemic diseases and fatal allergic symptoms.

Prevalence and Factors with Potentially Inappropriate Prescribing among Older Surgical Outpatients in China: A Nationwide Cross-sectional Study in 100 Hospitals

BackgroundOlder outpatients face a heightened risk of potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP). However, there is a paucity of evidence evaluating PIP in older outpatients attending surgical outpatient departments in China using Chinese-specific criteria. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of PIP and identify associated factors within this population.MethodsA cross-sectional design was employed, utilizing prescription data from older surgical outpatients across 100 hospitals in seven Chinese cities between January and December 2021. PIP was assessed based on Chinese criteria, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors. Trends were analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC) via joinpoint regression.ResultsA total of 357,135 prescriptions for older surgical outpatients were analyzed. The prevalence of PIP according to Chinese criteria was 13.06%. The five most commonly identified potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) were doxazosin, clopidogrel, tolterodine, estazolam, and the concurrent use of more than two NSAIDs, which together accounted for 52.73% of all PIMs. From January to December, the prevalence of PIP exhibited a slight decrease, from 13.29 to 13.21% (AAPC: -0.278%). Logistic regression revealed that factors such as tertiary-level hospital status, polypharmacy, pain, sleep disorders, hypertension, benign prostatic hyperplasia, and stone disease were positively associated with PIP in older surgical outpatients.ConclusionsThe study found that while the prevalence of PIP among older surgical outpatients in China is relatively low, attention is needed to the widespread use of certain PIMs.

A systematic analysis and prediction of the disease burden of ischemic heart disease caused by hyperglycemia.

This study aims to analyze the disease burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) caused by hyperglycemia and its changing trend, and to construct a visualization platform for disease burden and forecast trends on the Shiny platform. Using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study, we analyzed deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to IHD triggered by hyperglycemia, with detailed analysis by region, gender, and age. The age-period-cohort model was used to assess the impact of age, cohort, and period on age-standardized disease rates across different Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, and decomposition analysis was employed to disentangle the contributions of population, aging, and epidemiological changes. In 2021, approximately 14-15% of IHD's DALYs and deaths were attributed to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), with a nonsignificant decrease in the annual average percentage change of DALYs. In middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions, the age-standardized mortality rates caused by HFPG are increasing, particularly among males. In high-middle and high SDI regions, the effects of aging and epidemiological changes surpass population growth, whereas in low SDI regions, population growth is the main factor. By 2050, the global Age-Standardized Mortality Rate of IHD attributed to HFPG is projected to reach 16.96. More data can be accessed by visiting the disease burden visualization platform. Global HFPG-induced IHD health presents significant imbalances. In low SDI regions with larger populations and more unbalanced healthcare distribution, there is a need to strengthen the construction of medical levels.

Global prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of cataract in 204 countries and territories: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Cataracts, the leading cause of blindness globally, significantly impair vision and quality of life, particularly among the elderly. Despite advancements in cataract surgery, challenges in accessibility and economic disparities hinder the reduction of cataract burden, especially in low-income regions. This study examines the global prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to cataracts from 1990 to 2021, providing insights to inform public health strategies. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, we analysed cataract prevalence and YLDs across 204 countries and territories. The estimates were stratified by age, sex, region, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and compared across different time periods. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to evaluate trends. From 1990 to 2021, the global YLDs due to cataracts increased from 3.42 million to 6.55 million, a 91.8% rise. Most countries exhibited an increase in YLDs, with notable surges in low-SDI regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The AAPC for age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was slightly positive globally, while the age-standardized YLD rate (ASYR) showed a decreasing trend, indicating improved cataract management. High-SDI regions experienced minor ASPR increases but significant ASYR reductions, reflecting effective interventions. Conversely, low-SDI regions saw declines in both ASPR and ASYR, though disparities persisted. The burden of cataracts remains substantial, with significant increases in YLDs driven by aging populations and improved diagnostic capabilities. Effective management strategies have reduced ASYRs, particularly in high-SDI regions. Addressing cataract burden in low-SDI regions requires enhanced healthcare access, targeted public health interventions, and global support. These findings underscore the need for continued investment in cataract prevention and treatment to mitigate the global impact.

EXPRESS: Cancer Mortality in Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is linked with an increased risk of cancers, particularly hematologic malignancies. Cancer mortality among patients with SLE in the United States (U.S.) remains unclear. Our cross-sectional study sought to measure trends in cancer mortality among patients with SLE in the last 2 decades. Cancer deaths among patients with SLE from 1999 to 2020 were analyzed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 1,000,000 individuals were measured. We used joinpoint trend analysis to determine the average annual percent change (AAPC) in AAMR trends. From 1999 to 2020, there were 2,481 cancer deaths with comorbid SLE. Overall, the AAMRs of cancer among patients with SLE increased from 0.71 in 1999 to 1.19 per 1,000,000 individuals 2020 with the AAPC at +1.19. Women had a higher AAMR from cancer death with comorbid SLE than men (1.39 vs. 0.29 per 1,000,000 individuals). The highest AAMR was observed among African Americans (1.23 per 1,000,000 individuals), followed by Hispanics (0.61 per 1,000,000 individuals), Whites (0.58 per 1,000,000 individuals), and Asians (0.36 per 1,000,000 individuals). Those who lived in the West region and the rural region had the highest AAMR respectively (0.69 vs. 0.70 per 1,000,000 individuals). The three most common causes of cancer deaths were lung cancer (28.70%), breast cancer (8.83%), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (4.96%). Cancer mortality in SLE patients has risen, with higher rates among African Americans, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

Comparison of trend analysis of varicella zoster disease burden between China and the world 1990–2021 and disease burden forecast 2030

ObjectivesThis study aims to analyze temporal trends in the age- and sex-specific burdens of varicella zoster virus (VZV), including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the burden of varicella zoster in China for 2030 by comparing the trends with the global burden of the disease.MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease database (1990–2021) were used to analyze the characteristics of varicella zoster virus (VZV) burden in China and globally, including trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated using Joinpoint to assess the VZV burden trends. A comprehensive comparative analysis of the differences in VZV burden between China and the global population was conducted across multiple dimensions, including age, gender, and time period. Additionally, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the VZV trend from 2021 to 2030.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of varicella zoster in China decreased from 1,274.93/100,000 to 1,270.58/100,000, while the global ASIR increased from 1,244.05/100,000 to 1,248.59/100,000. In China, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) decreased slightly from 72.27/100,000 to 72.03/100,000, whereas the global ASPR rose from 66.67/100,000 to 67.16/100,000. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) in China decreased significantly, from 17.68/100,000 to 4.66/100,000, while the global ASDR decreased from 19.28/100,000 to 12.31/100,000. Similarly, China’s age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) declined significantly, from 0.40/100,000 to 0.05/100,000, while the global ASMR decreased from 0.35/100,000 to 0.19/100,000. Over the same period, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR in China was −0.0056, −0.0131%, −6.84%, and −4.24%, respectively, while the global AAPC for these metrics was 0.0119, 0.0183, −1.97%, and −1.42%, respectively. Additionally, age and gender had a significant impact on the burden of varicella zoster. The trends in ASIR and ASPR were notably influenced by age, while ASMR and ASDR exhibited a significant increasing trend with age. Projections indicate that the ASDR of varicella zoster in China will continue to decrease by 2030, while the ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR are expected to remain stable.ConclusionBetween 1990 and 2021, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of VZV in China demonstrated a declining trend, reflecting a relative reduction in the VZV burden. Women are more susceptible to VZV infection and face a higher risk of mortality than men. In contrast, the global disease burden remains higher than that in China. Projections suggest a slight decrease in the VZV burden in China by 2030. However, due to the country’s large and aging population, VZV will continue to pose a significant public health challenge.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of stroke among youths and young adults aged 15–39 years from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021

BackgroundStroke is a leading cause of disability and mortality worldwide, with rising incidence rates among youths and young adults aged 15–39 years. However, comprehensive assessments of stroke burden in this age group at global, regional, and national levels are limited. This study examines trends in stroke incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.MethodsData from the GBD study (1990–2021) were analyzed to assess the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs related to stroke in individuals aged 15–39 years. The relationship between stroke burden and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) was explored across 204 countries and 21 regions. Trends were analyzed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC).ResultsThis study reveals global, regional, and national trends in stroke burden among youths and young adults (15–39 years) from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, the global age-standardized stroke incidence was 757,234.61 cases, with 8.72 million DALYs and 122,742 stroke-related deaths. Although global incidence increased by 19.09%, age-standardized rates (ASRs) declined by 0.67% annually. DALYs and mortality rates also decreased globally. Notably, stroke burden increased in low and low-middle SDI regions. South Asia had the highest number of cases, while Oceania reported the highest mortality rate. These findings underscore regional disparities in stroke trends. Globally, metabolic risks (46.2%) and high systolic blood pressure (37.87%) are major contributors to stroke-related mortality.

Global, regional and national burden and trends of larynx cancer among adults aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021: results from the global burden of disease study 2021.

Laryngeal cancer (LC), as a common head and neck tumor, significantly impacts the quality of life. Utilizing data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we sought to delve deeply into the global LC burden experienced by individuals aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels. This research encompassed three key indicators: incidence rate, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Based on the GBD 2021 database, we selected data from 204 countries and regions covering the period from 1990 to 2021 for individuals aged 55 and above. We analyzed LC's performance in terms of incidence, mortality, and DALYs, calculating the age-standardized rates and the mean average annual percent change (AAPC) at global, regional, and national levels. In our analysis of global trends, we carefully considered multiple variables including age, sex, and the socio-demographic index (SDI). Furthermore, we assessed potential risk factors for LC-associated DALYs and made prospective predictions for the possible scenario by 2035. Globally, the age-standardized DALY rate of LC among adults aged 55 years and older has undergone significant changes. Specifically, this rate dropped sharply from 245.89 cases per 100,000 people in 1990 to 153.76 cases per 100,000 people in 2021, with an AAPC showing a decreasing trend of -2.916. Simultaneously, the age-standardized incidence rate and mortality rate also exhibited a similar downward trend. From a regional perspective, South Asia ranked highest in relevant indicators in 2021, reporting a death toll of 29,258.96, confirmed cases of 34,234.23, and DALYs related to LC reaching 709,622.00. In contrast, the figures in Oceania were the lowest, with only 26.23 deaths, 29.53 incident cases, and 609.09 DALYs. When divided according to the quintiles of the SDI, in 2021, the medium-high SDI led in incidence rates, while the low SDI ranked last. However, in terms of mortality and DALY rates, medium-low SDI topped the list, with high SDI being the lowest. In terms of gender differences, in 2021, the age-standardized DALY rate of LC in males was approximately 7.13 times that of females, with the former reaching 282.12 cases per 100,000 people and the latter only 39.59 cases per 100,000 people. Among all age groups, a notable decrease was observed in the age-specific incidence rate and DALY for adults aged 60-64 years, with AAPC values of -0.123 (95% CI: -0.130 to -0.116) and - 3.553 (95% CI: -3.620 to -3.486), respectively. Similarly, the mortality rate for adults aged 65-69 years also showed a significant decline, with an AAPC of -0.123 (95% CI: -0.127 to -0.118). Additionally, tobacco has been revealed as the most important risk factor affecting the mortality and DALY of LC in adults aged 55 years and older. Looking ahead, it is predicted that by 2035, the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate of LC among people over 55 years old will continue to decline. Despite the current data and future predictions indicating a decline in the global age-standardized incidence rate, the absolute number of estimates continues to increase. Therefore, we advocate that cancer prevention strategies should place greater emphasis on vigorously addressing modifiable risk factors, particularly for the male population, which requires special attention and scientific intervention.

Projections for prevalence of Parkinson’s disease and its driving factors in 195 countries and territories to 2050: modelling study of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

ObjectiveTo predict the global, regional, and national prevalence of Parkinson’s disease by age, sex, year, and Socio-demographic Index to 2050 and quantify the factors driving changes in Parkinson’s disease cases.DesignModelling...

Demographic and regional trends of acute myocardial infarction-related mortality among young adults in the US, 1999–2020

Little is known about how acute myocardial infarction (AMI) mortality has changed over the past two decades in young US adults. We aimed to evaluate the AMI mortality trend among young adults in the US from 1999 to 2020. Data were extracted from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Young adults aged 15–44 years with AMI listed as a contributing or underlying cause of death were included. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in AMI-related age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs). There were 81,272 AMI-related deaths among young adults. The overall AAMR shows a stable trend from 1999 to 2003 (APC 0.2%); a steeper decrease from 2003 to 2009 (APC -4.2%); a steady decrease from 2009 to 2018 (APC -1.8%); and a significant increase from 2018 to 2020 (APC 7.3%); with an AAPC of -1.3% per year (95% CI -2.0% to -0.5%). The AAMR significantly decreased among men (AAPC -1.5%; 95% CI -2.2% to -0.7%), women (AAPC -1.0%; 95% CI -2.4% to -0.4%), non-Hispanic White (AAPC -1.9%; 95% CI -2.6% to -1.1%), and non-Hispanic or African American (AAPC -1.2%; 95% CI -1.8% to -0.6%). Across all geographical regions, the AAMR declined, most significantly in large metropolitan areas (AAPC -1.8%; 95% CI -2.7% to -0.8%). In conclusion, AMI mortality rates among young adults mostly declined from 1999 to 2020, with significant demographic and geographic variation.

Unveiling China’s heart disease challenges: a comprehensive retrospective study on national mortality burden

BackgroundHeart disease has been the leading cause of death in China since 2020. With the development of the aging population, dietary habits changes, and extreme climate conditions, this study aimed to evaluate national and sub-national changes in the heart disease burden from 2013 to 2021 in china, using data from the National Mortality Surveillance System.MethodsThis study was mainly using the National Mortality Surveillance System, which covered 300 million, accounted for 24% of China’s population, with national and provincial representativeness from 2013 to 2021. The data categories were modified in 2013 to contain individual classes for heart disease, and the classifications remained consist until 2021. Permutation test were used to identify the Joinpoints in the data. Trends for the study period were evaluated using the average annual percent change (AAPC) in mortality rates with 95% Confidence interval (CI). A decomposition analysis was used to analyse the drivers of mortality change due to heart disease.ResultsThe total number of heart disease related deaths increased from 277,312(2013) to 463,314(2021). The proportion of deaths due to heart disease increased from 21.81% to 25.45%. And the gender-standardized mortality of heart disease increased from 140.11/100,000 to 180.67/100,000 from 2013 to 2021. The average annual increase (AAI) was 4.46%. since 2020, the heart disease has become the leading cause of death, rising from the third place. Epidemic characteristics were as follows: First, the heart disease-related mortality was higher in males than in females. And the AAPC for males was 3.74% from 2013 to 2021 (AAPC = 3.744, 95% CI: 3.048 ~ 4.528, P < 0.01). The AAPC for females was 4.09% (AAPC = 4.088, 95% CI: 2.962 ~ 5.313, P < 0.01). Second, a rapid increase in heart disease related mortality has been observed among 15–44 years population in recent years. Third, the mortality of rural residents in the past 6 years has increased fast (from 151.19/100,000 to 188.58/100,000). The average annual increase in rural heart disease mortality was 3.49%. Fourth, heart disease mortality in Central China increased fast and reached the highest rate in China. Additionally, ischemic heart disease mortality showed the highest, with a rapidly increasing trend. Finally, most heart disease related deaths occurred from October of the first year to March of the following year, with peaks in January and February. And over 70% of these deaths occured at home or in hospital,.ConclusionsThe deaths due to heart disease indicated a remarkable continues increase in the burden of heart disease. This study results imply escalating healthcare expenses, with projections indicating even greater future challenges. These findings will also help identify gaps in heart disease healthcare and guide the prioritization of health programs dirven by the needs of China.

Temporal trends in prevalence and years of life lived with disability for hearing loss in China from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

Hearing loss (HL) poses a serious threat to the health and quality of life of Chinese population. This study analyzes the burden of HL in China from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends in next 15 years. Data derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were utilized. The join-point regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) of HL. Age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to assess age, period and cohort effects. Decomposition analysis was performed to analyze the impacts of aging, population and epidemiological change. ARIMA model was utilized for forecasting the burden of HL from 2022 to 2036. From 1990 to 2021, the number of prevalence and YLDs of HL in China rose by 125.06 and 135.13%, with an average annual percentage change of 0.19 and 0.28% for age-standardized rate (ASR) of prevalence and YLDs, respectively. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated that the risks associated with ASR of prevalence and YLDs for HL increased with age. The period effects on the ASRs of prevalence and YLDs were generally increasing (relative risk [RR] 0.98-1.06 and 0.96-1.05). Cohort effects on the risk also rising (RR 0.90-1.41 and 0.83-1.26). Aging growth accounted for the largest proportion of the increase of the number of prevalence and YLDs (68.62 and 66.39%, respectively). The prevalence and YLDs rates are expected to stabilize from 2022 to 2036, while the age-standardized prevalence rate remains above 20%. The number of people suffering from HL will reach 573.8 million, while the number of YLDs will reach 16 million. The prevalent cases of HL have risen dramatically in China over the past 32 years, which expected to continue to grow by 2036, additional interventions such as enhancing primary hearing care services and boosting screening rates for HL are essential to alleviate the burden of HL, especially in the older adult population.

The epidemiological trends and prediction of brain and central nervous system cancer incidence and mortality, 1992-2021: Age-period-cohort analysis.

Introduction The study uniquely focuses on the global incidence, mortality, and temporal trends of brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer from 1992 to 2021. It explores the association between the disease burden and factors such as age, period, and birth cohorts, and provides forecasts for future incidence and mortality. Methods Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data from 1992 to 2021, we calculated incidence, and deaths and their age-standardized rates (ASR) and assessed temporal trends using the average annual percent change derived from joinpoint regression analysis. To explore the impacts of age, period, and birth cohort in greater depth, we applied an age-period-cohort model. Additionally, a Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to forecast the global epidemiological trends from 2022 to 2031. Results The global incidence of brain and CNS cancer has increased from 2,831,075 in 1992 to 3,420,786 in 2021, and the number of mortalities has risen by 80.62%. The incidence ASR was highest in high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, and showed an increasing trend. Conversely, the mortality ASR displayed downward trends in high-middle and high SDI regions. Notably, the age-period-cohort model suggests a recent increase in incidence risk, and a decline in mortality. From 2022 to 2031, the global mortality ASR was predicted to decrease whereas the incidence ASR increases slowly. Conclusion The global trends in brain and CNS cancer incidence and mortality generally showed an increasing trend with considerable heterogeneity. Furtherly, high SDI regions where health care systems could conduct earlier and better medical interventions with better outcome for brain and CNS cancer.