ATRIA Score Research Articles

Using machine learning to predict the bleeding risk for patients with cardiac valve replacement treated with warfarin in hospitalized.

Distinguishing warfarin-related bleeding risk at the bedside remains challenging. Studies indicate that warfarin therapy should be suspended when international normalized ratio (INR) ≥ 4.5, or it may sharply increase the risk of bleeding. We aim to develop and validate a model to predict the high bleeding risk in valve replacement patients during hospitalization. Cardiac valve replacement patients from January 2016 to December 2021 across Nanjing First Hospital were collected. Five different machine-learning (ML) models were used to establish the prediction model. High bleeding risk was an INR ≥4.5. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used for evaluating the prediction performance of different models. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used for interpreting the model. We also compared ML with ATRIA score and ORBIT score. A total of 2376 patients were finally enrolled in this model, 131 (5.5%) of whom experienced the high bleeding risk after anticoagulation therapy of warfarin during hospitalization. The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) exhibited the best overall prediction performance (AUC: 0.882, confidence interval [CI] 0.817-0.946, Brier score, 0.158) compared to other prediction models. It also shows superior performance compared with ATRIA score and ORBIT score. The top 5 most influential features in XGBoost model were platelet, thyroid stimulation hormone, body surface area, serum creatinine and white blood cell. A model for predicting high bleeding risk in valve replacement patients who treated with warfarin during hospitalization was successfully developed by using machine learning, which may well assist clinicians to identify patients at high risk of bleeding and allow timely adjust therapeutic strategies in evaluating individual patient.

Evaluation of Relationship between Modified ATRIA Risk Score and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19

Aim: The ATRIA score was developed to assess the probability of an ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The modified ATRIA (M-ATRIA) risk score incorporates predictive risk variables for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As a result, we looked into the association between the M-ATRIA risk score and the risk of in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients.Materials and Methods: The data of 595 inpatients in the COVID-19 research were evaluated retrospectively and separated into three groups based on the M-ATRIA scoring system. The M-ATRIA score used the troponin I level as a parameter in place of the proteinuria criterion in the ATRIA score. Those with a score between 0 and 5 were classified as group 1 (n = 269), those with a score of 6 as group 2 (n = 64), and those with a score of 7 and above were classified as group 3 (n = 162). In-hospital death, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the critical-care unit were all considered adverse clinical events.Results: The M-ATRIA risk score associated with adverse clinical events (all, p < 0.001). An M-ATRIA score of 6, an M-ATRIA score greater than 7, procalcitonin, and C- reactive protein were found to be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the ROC analysis, an M-ATRIA score of 4.5 or above predicted in-hospital mortality with a sensitivity of 90.2% and a specificity of 58.9%. Conclusion: Regardless of the status of AF, the M-ATRIA risk score computed at admission may be a valuable tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Performance of the ATRIA Bleeding Score in Predicting the Risk of In-Hospital Bleeding in Patients with ST-Elevation or Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

A clear assessment of the bleeding risk score in patients presenting with myocardial infarction (MI) is crucial because of its impact on prognosis. The Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA score is a validated risk score to predict bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation (AF), but its predictive value in predicting bleeding after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or non-STEMI (NSTEMI) patients receiving antithrombotic therapy is unknown. Our aim was to investigate the predictive performance of the ATRIA bleeding score in STEMI and NSTEMI patients in comparison to the CRUSADE (Can Rapid risk stratification of Unstable angina patients Suppress ADverse outcomes with Early implementation of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Guidelines) and ACUITY-HORIZONS (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage strategY-Harmonizing Outcomes with Revascularization and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction) bleeding scores. A total of 830 consecutive STEMI and NSTEMI patients who underwent PCI were evaluated retrospectively. The ATRIA, CRUSADE, and ACUITY-HORIZONS risk scores of the patients were calculated. Discrimination of the three risk models was evaluated using C-statistics. Major bleeding occurred in 52 (6.3%) of 830 patients during hospitalization. Bleeding scores were significantly higher in the bleeding patients than in non-bleeding patients (all P<0.001). The discriminatory ability of the ATRIA, CRUSADE, and ACUITY-HORIZONS bleeding scores for bleeding events was similar (C-statistics 0.810, 0.832, and 0.909, respectively). The good predictive value of all three scores for predicting the risk of bleeding was observed in NSTEMI and STEMI patients as well (C-statistics: 0.820, 0.793, and 0.921 and 0.809, 0.854, and 0.905, respectively). This study demonstrated that the ATRIA bleeding score is a useful risk score for predicting major in-hospital bleeding in MI patients. This good predictive value was also present in STEMI and NSTEMI patient subgroups.

The Relationship Between ATRIA Score and CRP/Albumin in Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation

Amaç: Atriyal fibrilasyon (AF) erişkin popülasyonda en sık görülen aritmi olup tromboemboli riskinde önemli artışa sebep olmaktadır. ATRIA risk skorlaması AF hastalarında tromboemboli riskini değerlendirmek için geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmamızda AF saptanan hastalarda, ATRIA risk skoru ile C-reaktif peptid (CRP)/Albumin oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemeyi amaçladık. Materyal ve Metod: Çalışmamıza Aralık 2015-Aralık 2021 tarihleri arasında non-valvüler AF’u olan 240 hasta alındı. Hastaların klinik bilgileri ve tetkik sonuçları hastane bilgi sisteminden retrospektif olarak taranarak ATRIA skorları hesaplandı. Bulgular: Çalışmaya 240 hasta alındı. Hastaların yaş ortalaması 67.35±9.5 olup, %42.9’u erkek idi. Hastaları %27.9’unda diyabetes mellitus, %44.2’sinde hipertansiyon, %24.2’sinde hiperlipidemi, %32.1’inde koroner arter hastalığı mevcuttu. ATRIA skoruna göre yüksek riskli grubun daha yüksek glukoz, kreatinin, CRP ve CRP/Albumin oranına sahip olduğu saptanmıştır. Korelasyon analizinde, ATRIA skoru ve CRP/Albumin oranı arasında pozitif korelasyon tespit edildi (r=0.687; p=0.001; p&amp;lt;0.01). Çok değişkenli lojistik regresyon analizinde, yaş, CRP, CRP/Albumin oranı, diyabet ve hipertansiyonun ATRIA skorunun bağımsız belirleyicileri olarak saptandı. Roc analizinde eğri altında kalan alan trombosit lenfosit oranı için 0.964 (0.941-0.988, p&amp;lt;0.001 ), CRP/Albumin oranının yüksek ATRIA skorunu predikte ettiği kesim değeri %93.8 sensivite, %93.1 spesifite ile 0.093 bulundu. Sonuç: CRP ve albumin düzeyleri kanda kolaylıkla bakılabilen parametrelerdir. Çalışmamızda CRP/Albumin oranının ATRİA risk skoru ile korelasyon gösterdiği bulundu. AF saptanan hastalarda tromboemboli açısından riskli grubun tayininde skorlama sistemine ek olarak ATRIA risk skorunun da kullanılabileceği kanaatindeyiz.

Abstract 15839: Complication and Readmission Outcome of Atrial Fibrillation Catheter Ablation Among Cancer Patients

Introduction: Catheter ablation (CA) has been increasingly utilized among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) as a guideline-supported treatment. However, limited data is available regarding its safety among cancer patients. Hypothesis: Patients with a cancer diagnosis has worse outcome following AF CA Methods: We queried the 2016 to 2019 United State Nationwide Readmission database to identify all patients with (active cancer or a history of cancer) or without cancer diagnosis who underwent AF CA. Hospital outcome and 30 days readmission rate were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression or Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was employed when appropriate adjusting for comorbidities as well as patient and hospital-level factors. Results: A total of 46,461 AF CAs were included in the analysis, among which 800 (1.72%) patients were diagnosed with active cancer and 5,133 (11.04%) patients had a history of cancer. Compared to non-cancer patients, patients with a cancer diagnosis were older and more likely to be female (Table 1). Patient with cancer diagnosis also has a higher burden of comorbidities, stroke risk, and bleeding risk as evidenced by Charlson Comorbidity Index, CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, and ATRIA score (Table1). As a result, patient with active cancer has higher inpatient hospital mortality, procedural complication rate, and all-cause readmission rate. After adjusting for confounders, active cancer diagnosis but not a history of cancer was associated with increased hospital mortality (Odds ratio: 2.72[1.18-6.24] p=0.018 vs noncancer) In contrast, only a history of cancer was associated with a small increased risk of 30 days readmission following CA (Hazard ratio: 1.19 [1.04-1.37) p=0.009 vs noncancer). There was no difference in procedural risk between cancer and non-cancer patients. Conclusions: Active cancer but not a history of cancer was associated with increased in-hospital mortality among AF patients who underwent CA.

Association between CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen Stroke Risk Scores and Functional Outcomes in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients Who Received Endovascular Thrombectomy.

Background: CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen stroke risk scores are used to estimate thromboembolism risk. We aimed to investigate the association between unfavorable outcomes and stroke risk scores in patients who received endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). Methods: This study was performed using data from a nationwide, multicenter registry to explore the selection criteria for patients who would benefit from reperfusion therapies. We calculated pre-admission CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen scores for each patient who received EVT and compared the relationship between these scores and 3-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) records. Results: Among the 404 patients who received EVT, 213 (52.7%) patients had unfavorable outcomes (mRS 3–6). All scores were significantly higher in patients with unfavorable outcomes than in those with favorable outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that CHADS2 and the ATRIA score were positively correlated with unfavorable outcomes after adjusting for body mass index and variables with p < 0.1 in the univariable analysis (CHADS2 score: odds ratio [OR], 1.484; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.290–1.950; p = 0.005, ATRIA score, OR, 1.128; 95% CI, 1.041–1.223; p = 0.004). Conclusions: The CHADS2 and ATRIA scores were positively correlated with unfavorable outcomes and could be used to predict unfavorable outcomes in patients who receive EVT.

A nomogram to predict left atrial appendage thrombus and spontaneous echo contrast in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients

BackgroundNon-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) significantly increases the risk of stroke. Although there is availability of prediction models, their ability to predict the risk of stroke in NVAF patients remains suboptimal. Therefore, there is need to improve prediction of high-risk individuals, which is critical for efficient management of patients with NVAF.ObjectiveThe objective of our paper is to develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT) and spontaneous echo contrast (SEC), thereby replacing the risk of stroke in NVAF patients.DesignThis was a retrospective cohort study that analyzed clinical data and echocardiographic indices of 387 patients with NVAF from October 2018 to June 2021. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate independent factors that were used to construct the prediction nomogram.AnalysisThe discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram to predict LAAT/SEC were tested using C-statistic and calibration plot. The performance of the nomogram was assessed against the CHA2DS2 score, CHA2DS2-VASc score and ATRIA score using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA), integrated discrimination index (IDI) and net reclassification index (NRI).ResultOut of the total 387 patients enrolled in this study, 232 had LAAT/SEC. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), albumin (ALB), LAA ejection fraction (LAAEF) and LAA global peak longitudinal strain (LAA GPLS) were independent predictors of LAAT/SEC. The constructed nomogram had good discriminative (C = 0.886) and calibration (0.876) abilities after bias correction by the C-index. Compared with other models, the decision curve analyses demonstrated that the nomogram had greater net benefits. Besides, the nomogram had significant improvement in predictive performance, sensitivity and reclassification for LAAT/SEC compared with the CHA2DS2 [(c-index: 0.886 vs. 0.576, p < 0.05), (NRI: 0.539, p < 0.05), (IDI: 0.432, p < 0.05)], CHA2DS2-VASc [(c-index: 0.886 vs0.579, p < 0.05), (NRI: 0.513, p < 0.05), (IDI: 0.432, p < 0.05)] or ATRIA [(c-index: 0.886 vs0.583, p < 0.05), (NRI: 0.546, p < 0.05), (IDI: 0.432, p < 0.05)].ConclusionTaken together, our data demonstrated that the developed nomogram was effective and had potential clinical application in the prediction of LAAT/SEC in patients with NVAF.

Validation of HAS-BELD scoring system and risk factors of bleeding with warfarin among non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Objectives This study aimed to validate different bleeding scoring systems including HAS-BELD score and other scores and risks of bleeding in Thai patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Background AF is the most common sustained arrhythmia and associated with an increased risk of embolic stroke. Although warfarin can decrease the risk for thromboembolism, it increases the risk of major bleeding. The use of the bleeding scoring system can predict bleeding risks and guide physicians to decide the benefit and risk ratio before prescribing warfarin to prevent stroke in patients with AF. However, the validation of these scoring systems as well as studies evaluating risk factors associated with bleeding complications in Thai patients are still lacking. Methods A retrospective study was conducted in adult patients diagnosed with AF who received warfarin therapy and were followed at hospital during January 2015 to December 2019. Validation of HAS-BELD score, ATRIA score and ORBIT score were determined using the c-index. Individual factors for bleeding were assessed. Results From medical record review, 200 patients met inclusion criteria, and 27 patients presented with major bleeding events. HAS-BELD score, ATRIA score and ORBIT score had c-index of 0.790 (95%CI0.651-0.865, p &amp;lt; 0.001), 0.708 (95%CI0.615-0.802, p &amp;lt; 0.001) and 0.752 (95%CI0.651-0.853, p &amp;lt; 0.001), respectively. There were no statistical differences among these scores in predicting the bleeding risk (P = 0.089). Notably, risk factors significantly associated with major bleeding in this population in multivariate analysis were anemia (OR3.28, 95%CI1.15-9.38, p = 0.027), bleeding history (OR5.34, 95%CI1.94-14.71, p = 0.001), concomitant NSAIDs (OR8.94, 95%CI1.48-53.83, p = 0.017) and time in therapeutic range &amp;lt; 60% (OR11.57, 95%CI2.51-53.41, p = 0.002) and were incorporated into the new scoring system, ABC-TTR. Conclusion HAS-BELD, ATRIA and ORBIT scores demonstrated diagnostic ability to predict major bleeding events in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patient receiving warfarin. Risk factors associated with bleeding in Thais with AF were identified. Abstract Figure. C-index to predict major bleeding Abstract Figure. The risk factors

Association between CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen Stroke Risk Scores and Unsuccessful Recanalization after Endovascular Thrombectomy in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients.

Background: The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen scores have been developed for predicting vascular outcomes in stroke patients. We investigated the association between these stroke risk scores and unsuccessful recanalization after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). Methods: From the nationwide multicenter registry (Selection Criteria in Endovascular Thrombectomy and Thrombolytic therapy (SECRET)) (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02964052), we consecutively included 501 patients who underwent EVT. We identified pre-admission stroke risk scores in each included patient. Results: Among 501 patients who underwent EVT, 410 (81.8%) patients achieved successful recanalization (mTICI ≥ 2b). Adjusting for body mass index and p < 0.1 in univariable analysis revealed the association between all stroke risk scores and unsuccessful recanalization (CHADS2 score: odds ratio (OR) 1.551, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.198–2.009, p = 0.001; CHA2DS2VASc score: OR 1.269, 95% CI 1.080–1.492, p = 0.004; ATRIA score: OR 1.089, 95% CI 1.011–1.174, p = 0.024; and Essen score: OR 1.469, 95% CI 1.167–1.849, p = 0.001). The CHADS2 score had the highest AUC value and differed significantly only from the Essen score (AUC of CHADS2 score; 0.618, 95% CI 0.554–0.681). Conclusion: All stroke risk scores were associated with unsuccessful recanalization after EVT. Our study suggests that these stroke risk scores could be used to predict recanalization in stroke patients undergoing EVT.

Comparison of bleeding risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation and cancer

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background. Cancer may increase bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation (AF), but the association between cancer type and specific bleeding events has been scarcely investigated. Furthermore, the performance of bleeding risk scores in this high-risk subgroup of patients is unclear. Purpose. To describe the incidence rate (IR) of major (MB), gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) according to cancer types. We also investigated the performance of HAS-BLED, ATRIA and ORBIT scores. Methods Observational retrospective cohort study including 399,344 patients with AF and cancer. Results. Mean age was 77.9 ± 10.2 years and 63.2% were men. During 2.0 years follow-up, the IR of MB was as high as 8.41%/y, GI bleeding was 3.61%/y and ICH 1.33%/y. MBs were more frequent in liver (12.68%/y), leukaemia (12.39%/y), pancreas (11.71%/y), bladder (11.67%/y) and myeloma (11.64%/y). GI bleedings were highest in liver (7.54%/y), pancreas (7.42%/y) and gastric (5.51%/y). ICH was highest in leukaemia (1.89%/y), myeloma (1.52%/y), lymphoma/liver (1.45%/y) and pancreas (1.41%/y) cancer. The Table shows the hazard ratio and AUC values for each bleeding score. All the three scores significantly associated with bleeding outcomes, with the HAS-BLED score performing better than others for ICH prediction, and the ORBIT score predicting MB and GI bleedings (p &amp;lt; 0.0001 for all AUC comparisons). Conclusions. Cancer increases the risk of bleeding in patients with cancer, with specific differences according to each cancer type. HAS-BLED score showed the best predictive value for ICH and the ORBIT score for MB and GI bleeding. MB GI bleeding ICH Hazard Ratio (95%CI) HASBLED score≥3 6.575 (6.390-6.765) 5.735 (5.502-5.978) 5.803 (5.416-6.218) ATRIA score≥5 5.372 (5.241-5.506) 3.617 (3.499-3.739) 1.469 (1.403-1.538) ORBIT score≥4 13.326 (12.977-13.686) 7.453 (7.202-7.712) 2.578 (2.463-2.699) AUC (95%CI) HASBLED score≥3 0.716 (0.714-0.718) 0.702 (0.699-0.704) 0.698 (0.694-0.702) ATRIA score≥5 0.700 (0.698-0.702) 0.662 (0.659-0.665) 0.563 (0.557-0.568) ORBIT score≥4 0.805 (0.804-0.807) 0.756 (0.753-0.758) 0.641 (0.635-0.646) AUC Difference (95% CI) HASBLED≥3 vs ATRIA≥5 0.016 (0.014-0.018) 0.040 (0.037-0.042) 0.136 (0.133-0.138) HASBLED≥3 vs ORBIT≥4 -0.089 (-0.091–0.087) -0.054 (-0.056–0.052) 0.057 (0.055-0.059) ATRIA≥5 vsORBIT≥4 -0.106 (-0.108–0.104) -0.094 (-0.095–0.092) -0.078 (-0.080–0.076)

Abstract P669: Aortic Stenosis and the Risk of Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Introduction: Aortic stenosis (AS) is known to cause mechanical degradation of von Willebrand factor, resulting in an increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding, also known as Heyde syndrome. We hypothesized that AS is also associated with an increased risk of nontraumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries using a 5% sample of inpatient and outpatient claims from1/1/2008-9/30/2015. Based on prior validation, we ascertained AS based on at least one inpatient or two outpatient claims with ICD-9-CM diagnosis code 395.0 in any position. ICH was identified through a validated ICD-9-CM diagnosis code algorithm. We used survival statistics to determine incidence rates and Cox proportional hazard analyses to examine associations. In prespecified models, we controlled for age, gender, race, bleeding risk (HAS-BLED and ATRIA scores), and common indications for antithrombotic treatment (atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, venous thromboembolism). Results: Among 1,785,836 Medicare beneficiaries, the mean age was 73.5 years (SD, 7.7) and 57.0% were women. AS was diagnosed in 6,157 (0.34%) patients. During a mean of 4.7 years (SD, 2.2) of follow-up, 28,309 (1.6%) were hospitalized with ICH. The incidence of ICH was 5.9 (95% CI, 4.9-7.2) per 1,000 person-years in those with AS compared to 3.4 (95% CI, 3.4-3.4) per 1,000 person-years in those without. After adjustment for demographics, AS was associated with an increased risk of ICH (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.09-1.59). This association was not statistically significant after adjusting additionally for HAS-BLED score components (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.95-1.39) or ATRIA score components (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.98-1.43). Effect sizes were further attenuated after adjusting for indications for antithrombotic drugs in addition to the HAS-BLED score (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.74-1.09) and ATRIA score (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.73-1.08). Conclusions: Medicare beneficiaries with AS faced an elevated risk of ICH. However, comorbid conditions that require the use of antithrombotic drugs accounted for the observed association, making an independent association between AS and ICH unlikely.

P4742Evaluation of the HAS-BLED, ATRIA and ORBIT bleeding risk scores in newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation

Abstract Background Several risk scores have been proposed to assess the bleeding risk in patients with Atrial Fibrillation. Purpose To compare the efficacy of HAS-BLED, ATRIA and ORBIT scores to predict major bleedings in newly diagnosed non-valvular AF (NV-AF) treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or new oral anticoagulants (NOACs). Methods We analyzed all consecutive patients with AF at our outpatient clinic from January to December 2017. Only those with new diagnosed NV-AF starting new anticoagulant therapy were enrolled. Major hemorrhagic events were defined according to the ISTH definition in non-surgical patients. Results Out of the 820 patients admitted with AF, 305 were newly diagnosed with NV-AF starting oral anticoagulation. Overall, 51.3% were male with a mean age of 72.6±13.7 years. Thirty-six patients (11.8%) started VKAs whereas 269 (88.2%) patients were treated with NOACs. The median follow-up time was 10.4±3.4 months. During follow-up, 123 (32.2%) bleeding events were recorded, 21 (17,1%) in the VKA group and 102 (82,9%) in the NOAC group. Eleven (2.9%) major bleeding events occurred: 5 (45.5%) in the VKA group and 6 (54.5%) in the NOAC group. Overall, patients with major hemorrhagic events showed a mean value of the scores significantly higher when compared to patients without such bleeding complications (HASBLED 3.4 vs 2.4 p=0.007; ATRIA 5.6 vs 2.4 p&lt;0.001; ORBIT 3.6 vs 1.8 p&lt;0,001). Conversely, when analyzing the VKA subgroup, only the ATRIA score was significantly higher in patients with major adverse events (7.4 vs 3.5 p&lt;0.001; HAS-BLED: 4.4 vs 3.6 p=0.27; ORBIT 4.4 vs 2.9 p=0.13). An ATRIA score ≥4 identified patients at high risk of bleeding (29.4% vs. 0% events. respectively, p=0.04). In the NOAC group, patients with major bleeding events had higher mean values of ATRIA (4.0 vs 2.3 p=0.02) and ORBIT (2.8 vs 1.6 p=0,04) but not the HAS-BLED (2.5 vs 2.3 p=0.57) scores. Similarly, patients on NOACs with an ATRIA score ≥4 had higher rates of major bleedings (8.1% vs. 1.6% p=0,02). Comparing the single elements of the ATRIA score, only glomerular filtration rate &lt;30 ml/min/1.73 mq was associated with major bleedings in the VKA group (p&lt;0.001) whereas, in the NOAC group, anemia was strongly associated with bleeding events (p=0,02). In fact, multivariate analysis in the NOAC group showed that hemoglobin level at admission was an independent predictor for major bleeding events (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.23–0.75, P=0.003). Conversely, in the VKA group, baseline creatinine level was an independent predictor for these events (OR 12.76, 95% CI 1.6–101.7, P=0.016). Conclusions The ATRIA score showed the best efficacy in predicting major bleeding events. Hemoglobin and creatinine levels at admission were independent predictors for major hemorrhagic events in the NOAC and in the VKA groups, respectively. The latter finding might be helpful in stratifying the hemorrhagic risk at the beginning of treatment.

Stroke Risk in Atrial Fibrillation: Beyond the CHA2DS2-VASc Score.

Stroke prevention is the cornerstone of atrial fibrillation (AF) management and the anticoagulation decision is currently based on CHA2DS2-VASc risk score. We discuss several novel risk factors besides those included in CHA2DS2-VASc score and alternative models for stroke prediction. Several clinical markers including obstructive sleep apnea and renal failure, laboratory markers like brain natriuretic peptide, imaging criteria including left atrial appendage morphology, spontaneous echo contrast, and coronary artery calcium score may predict stroke in AF patients. Addition of African American ethnicity to CHA2DS2-VASc score also improves stroke prediction in AF. Finally, novel models including TIMI-AF score, ATRIA score, and GARFIELD-AF scores have potential roles in risk stratification for stroke. While CHA2DS2-VASc score is the currently recommended risk stratification model for stroke prediction in AF, use of additional clinical, laboratory, imaging markers, ethnicity, and novel stroke prediction models may further assist in decision to anticoagulate the AF patient for stroke prevention.

P6243Clinical usefulness of ATRIA score to predict cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting

P6243Clinical usefulness of ATRIA score to predict cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting

Thromboprophylaxis for Patients with High-risk Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter Discharged from the Emergency Department

IntroductionMany patients with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (AF/FL) who are high risk for ischemic stroke are not receiving evidence-based thromboprophylaxis. We examined anticoagulant prescribing within 30 days of receiving dysrhythmia care for non-valvular AF/FL in the emergency department (ED).MethodsThis prospective study included non-anticoagulated adults at high risk for ischemic stroke (ATRIA score ≥7) who received emergency AF/FL care and were discharged home from seven community EDs between May 2011 and August 2012. We characterized oral anticoagulant prescribing patterns and identified predictors of receiving anticoagulants within 30 days of the index ED visit. We also describe documented reasons for withholding anticoagulation.ResultsOf 312 eligible patients, 128 (41.0%) were prescribed anticoagulation at ED discharge or within 30 days. Independent predictors of anticoagulation included age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.89 per year, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.82–0.96); ED cardiology consultation (aOR 1.89, 95% CI [1.10–3.23]); and failure of sinus restoration by time of ED discharge (aOR 2.65, 95% CI [1.35–5.21]). Reasons for withholding anticoagulation at ED discharge were documented in 139 of 227 cases (61.2%), the most common of which were deferring the shared decision-making process to the patient’s outpatient provider, perceived bleeding risk, patient refusal, and restoration of sinus rhythm.ConclusionApproximately 40% of non-anticoagulated AF/FL patients at high risk for stroke who presented for emergency dysrhythmia care were prescribed anticoagulation within 30 days. Physicians were less likely to anticoagulate older patients and those with ED sinus restoration. Opportunities exist to improve rates of thromboprophylaxis in this high-risk population.

Evaluation of the predictive performance of bleeding risk scores in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulants.

Bleeding risk scores (BRSs) aid in the assessment of oral anticoagulant-related bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. Ideally, the applicability of a BRS needs to be assessed, prior to its routine use in a population other than the original derivation cohort. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of 6 established BRSs to predict major or clinically relevant bleeding (CRB) events associated with the use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) among Malaysian patients. The pharmacy supply database and the medical records of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) receiving warfarin, dabigatran or rivaroxaban at two tertiary hospitals were reviewed. Patients who experienced an OAC-associated major or CRB event within 12months of follow-up, or who have received OAC therapy for at least 1year, were identified. The BRSs were fitted separately into patient data. The discrimination and the calibration of these BRSs as well as the factors associated with bleeding events were then assessed. A total of 1017 patients with at least 1-year follow-up period, or those who developed a bleeding event within 1year of OAC use, were recruited. Of which, 23 patients experienced a first major bleeding event, whereas 76 patients, a first CRB event. Multivariate logistic regression results show that age of 75 or older, prior bleeding and male gender are associated with major bleeding events. On the other hand, prior gastrointestinal bleeding, a haematocrit value of less than 30% and renal impairment are independent predictors of CRB events. All the BRSs show a satisfactory calibration for major and CRB events. Among these BRSs, only HEMORR2 HAGES (C-statistic=0.71, 95% CI 0.60-0.82, P<.001) and ATRIA score (C-statistic=0.70, 95% CI 0.58-0.82, P<.001) show acceptable discrimination performance for major bleeding events. All the 6 BRSs, however, lack acceptable predictive performance for CRB events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evaluation study of the predictive performance of these 6 BRSs on clinically relevant bleeding events applied to the same cohort consisting of mainly Asian novel oral anticoagulant users. These BRSs show poor to acceptable predictive performance on OAC-induced major or CRB events. An improvement in the existing BRSs for OAC users is warranted.

Factors associated with antithrombotic treatment decisions for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation in the Stockholm region after the introduction of NOACs

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of patient characteristics such as age and stroke and bleeding risks on decisions for antithrombotic treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).MethodsThis was a retrospective, population-based study including AF patients initiated with either warfarin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, or low-dose aspirin (ASA) between March 2015 and February 2016. Multivariate models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for factors associated with treatment decisions.ResultsA total of 6765 newly initiated patients were included, most with apixaban (46.4%) and least with ASA (6.7%). There were more comorbidities in patients initiated with ASA or warfarin compared to the cohort average. Patients with high stroke risks had higher chances of receiving ASA (CHA2DS2-VASc ≥5 vs 0; aOR 2.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–3.33). Among patients receiving oral anticoagulants, patients with high bleeding risks more often received warfarin (ATRIA score 5–10 vs 0–3; aOR 1.40; CI 1.20–1.64). Among NOACs, apixaban was preferred for patients with higher stroke risks (aOR 1.78; CI 1.31–2.41), high bleeding risks (aOR 1.54; CI 1.26–1.88) and high age (age group ≥85 vs 0–65; aOR 1.84; CI 1.44–2.35). Conversely, dabigatran treatment was associated with lower ages and lower risks.ConclusionsHigh stroke and bleeding risks favored choices of warfarin or ASA. Among patients receiving NOACs, apixaban was favored for elderly and high-risk patients whereas dabigatran was used in lower risk patients. The inadvertent use of ASA, especially among those with high stroke risks, should be further discouraged.

Twelve-month outcome of patients with an established indication for oral anticoagulation undergoing coronary artery stenting and stratified by the baseline risk of bleeding: Insights from the Warfarin and Coronary Stenting (War-Stent) Registry.

To evaluate the outcome of patients with an established indication for oral anticoagulation (OAC) undergoing coronary stent implantation (PCI-S) and stratified by the baseline risk of bleeding. The database of the prospective, multicentre, observational WAR-STENT registry (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00722319) was analyzed and patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, mechanical heart valve, prior cardiac embolism, intra-cardiac thrombus and recent venous thromboembolism who were treated with either triple (warfarin, aspirin and clopidogrel) or dual (warfarin and clopidogrel) or dual antiplatelet (aspirin and clopidogrel) therapy, identified. Patients were then sorted into two groups at non-low and low risk of bleeding, as defined by an ATRIA score >3 and ≤3 respectively, and compared regarding major adverse cardiac and vascular events (MACVE) and bleeding. At 12-month follow up, MACVE were comparable in the two groups, whereas total, major and minor bleeding, as well as combined MACVE and total bleeding, were significantly more frequent in the non-low bleeding risk group. Upon Cox univariate and multivariable analysis, non-low bleeding risk category confirmed as an independent predictor of major bleeding. The choice of antithrombotic therapy however, appeared not to be influenced by the bleeding risk category at baseline. In patients with an established indication for OAC undergoing PCI-S, non-low bleeding risk category is the most potent independent predictor of major bleeding. Stratification of the bleeding risk at baseline should therefore be regarded as an indispensable process to be carried out before selection of the antithrombotic therapy.

Stroke risk reduction outweighed bleeding risk increase from vitamin K antagonist treatment among nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients with high stroke risk and low bleeding risk

Objective: Warfarin is widely used for stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). We compared the rates of stroke and major bleeding in NVAF patients with a high stroke risk and low bleeding risk profile during warfarin treated (W+) and warfarin untreated (W−) periods.Method: Insurance claims from six commercial, Medicaid or Medicare databases were analyzed from 2000 to 2014. NVAF patients treated with warfarin, with a CHADS2/CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, and an ATRIA score ≤3 at baseline were identified. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of stroke and major bleeding were calculated for W + versus W− episodes of person-time, as well as for first 30 days versus beyond 30 days of W + episodes.Results: Among 316,145 patients, anticoagulant prophylaxis with warfarin significantly reduced stroke risk, with IRRs ranging from 0.48 (95% CI: 0.46–0.51) to 0.80 (95% CI: 0.70–0.91), and increased major bleeding risk, with IRRs ranging from 1.13 (95% CI: 1.10–1.15) to 1.95 (95% CI: 1.10–3.45). Stroke and major bleeding rates were higher during the first 30 days of W + than beyond.Conclusion: In NVAF patients at high risk for stroke and low risk for bleeding, our data confirm the effectiveness of anticoagulation for stroke prevention. The decrease in stroke risk of anticoagulation may outweigh the risk of major bleeding events, particularly among elderly patients. Potential risks of warfarin during initiation warrant attention, especially among patients who stop and start therapy repeatedly.

Antithrombotic use and bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation: findings from a multipayer analysis.

To analyze administrative claims data from Medicaid, Medicare and commercial insurance sources to estimate stroke risk, bleeding risk, and the use of antithrombotic treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Included patients were aged ≥18 years with a new or existing diagnosis of AF. Outcomes were assessed over 1 year and included stroke risk (CHADS2/CHA2DS2-VASc score), bleeding risk (ATRIA score) and anticoagulant use. A total of 115,906 patients with AF met inclusion criteria between six databases. Among patients with high stroke risk (CHADS2 ≥2) and low bleeding risk (ATRIA 0-3), 42-82% did not receive an antithrombotic. Levels of thromboprophylaxis for high-risk AF patients in real-world data differ significantly from current medical guidelines for stroke prevention.