Effects Of Atmospheric Pollution Research Articles

Negative association of atmospheric pollutants with semen quality: A cross-sectional study in Taiyuan, China

BackgroundIn recent decades, the quality of male semen has decreased worldwide. Air pollution has been linked to lower semen quality in several studies. However, the effects of atmospheric pollutants on different semen characteristics have not always been consistent. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the Air Quality Index (AQI) and six atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3), semen quality, and their key exposure window periods. MethodsThis study included 1711 semen samples collected at the reproductive clinics of the First Affiliated Hospital of Shanxi Medical University in Taiyuan, Shanxi, China, from October 10, 2021, to September 30, 2022. We evaluated the association of AQI and six atmospheric pollutants with semen quality parameters throughout sperm development and three key exposure windows in men using single-pollutant models, double-pollutant models, and subgroup analyses of semen quality-eligible groups. ResultsBoth the single-pollutant model and subgroup analyses showed that PM, CO, and O3 levels were negatively correlated with total and progressive motility. At 70–90 d before semen collection, CO exposure and semen volume (β =-1.341, 95 % CI: −1.805, −0.877, P <0.001), total motility (β =-2.593, 95 % CI: −3.425, −1.761, P <0.001), and progressive motility (β =-4.658, 95 % CI: −5.556, −3.760, P <0.001) were negatively correlated. At 0–9 days before semen collection, CO was negatively correlated with normal morphology (β =-3.403, 95 % CI: −5.099, −1.708, P <0.001). Additionally, the AQI was adversely associated with total and progressive motility in subgroup analyses of the semen quality-eligible groups. ConclusionsDuring the entire sperm development process, multiple air pollutants were determined to have an adverse correlation with semen quality parameters. AQI was significant marker for the combined effects of various atmospheric pollutants on male reproductive health.

How to Construct a Carbon Asset Management System for Chinese Power Enterprises: A Survey-Based Approach

The greenhouse effect of atmospheric pollution is globally concerning. China is transitioning to market-driven emission reduction from policy-driven efforts. In 2021, key power industry emitters were included in the national carbon trading market. However, many companies lack willingness and understanding of carbon assets, hindering progress. Research on power companies in Beijing, a political and carbon market pilot region, is valuable. This study obtained data on the participation of Beijing’s power generation companies in the carbon market and the construction of their carbon management systems during the first compliance period through the distribution of surveys. The findings revealed that the implementation and preparation of carbon inventory, Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) development, the allocation of carbon management personnel, and training are key factors influencing the actual effectiveness of carbon management within companies. Based on the survey results and the impact pathways, this study outlines the preparatory work, system content, and construction steps for power companies to build a carbon management system. It summarizes five key areas of work for power companies in managing carbon assets: carbon inventory, carbon management personnel and mechanisms, carbon trading, carbon emission reduction, and carbon finance. This provides guidance to help power companies fulfill their obligations smoothly, add value to their carbon assets, and achieve low-carbon development goals. Additionally, it offers a reference for other industry enterprises that are about to enter carbon trading.

Assessment of genotoxicity of air pollution in urban areas using an integrated model of passive biomonitoring

Atmospheric pollution is a major public health issue and has become increasingly critical for human health. Urban atmospheric pollution is typically assessed through physicochemical indicators aligned with environmental legislation parameters, providing data on air quality levels. While the effects of pollution on sensitive organisms serve as a warning for public health decision-makers, there remains a need to explore the interpretation of environmental data on pollutants. The use of species adapted to urban environments as sentinels enables continuous and integrated monitoring of environmental pollution implications on biological systems. In this study, we investigated the use of the plant species Tradescantia pallida as a biomonitor to evaluate the genotoxic effects of atmospheric pollution under diverse vehicular traffic conditions. T. pallida was strategically planted at the leading urban intersections in Uberlândia, Brazil. During COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, we compared indicators such as physical, biological, and traffic data at different intersections in residential and commercial zones. The reduction in vehicular traffic highlighted the sensitivity of plant species to changes in air and soil pollutants. T. pallida showed bioaccumulation of heavy metals Cd and Cr in monitored areas with higher traffic levels. Additionally, we established a multiple linear regression model to estimate genotoxicity using the micronucleus test, with chromium concentration in the soil (X1) and particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere (X2) identified as the primary independent variables. Our findings provide a comprehensive portrait of the impact of vehicular traffic changes on PM and offer valuable insights for refining parameters and models of Environmental Health Surveillance.

Effect of atmospheric pollution on the health of soccer players using generalized additive models

Effect of atmospheric pollution on the health of soccer players using generalized additive models

ОТКРЫТЫЙ ВОПРОС ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО УЩЕРБА

The article touches on the issue of environmental damage and names the main sources of air pollution. Atmospheric pollution is difficult to assess; all calculations determine conditional damage, and this component of the natural environment is a vital element of the existence of humanity itself. Therefore, the degree of industrialization with its anthropogenic interventions in the natural environment began to threaten the parity of the “nature – technology – man” model. An aspect of the domestic regulatory framework of environmental law is considered: the concepts of “pollutant”, “standards of permissible emissions”, “stationary source of environmental pollution” are given - and the interpretation of the categories “ecological damage to the natural environment”, “damage from the effects of atmospheric pollution on the state of the environment and the economy of the regions, as well as individual natural resource users”, “prevented environmental damage from emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere”, “reduced mass of pollutants”. The federal project “Clean Air” of the national project “Ecology” was considered, which will directly update the situation on the open issue of environmental damage in terms of pollution by harmful components of atmospheric air. Also, one of the main components of the openness of the issue: firstly, in theoretical terms, the absence of clear concepts in federal legislation; secondly, insufficient systematization of primary data at the regional level; and thirdly, the difficulty of accurate assessment.

Effects of atmospheric pollution on human health in Port Harcourt: Its implication on urban planning

This study examined the health implication of atmospheric pollution in Port Harcourt. The study adopted both experimental research design and ex-post facto designs. This involved direct field measurements of air pollutants (Sulphur (IV) Oxide, Nitrogen Oxide, Carbon Monoxide, and PM10) and archival medical data of air borne diseases in Port Harcourt. The study area was stratified into four zones using existing land use types. In each of the four zones, three most heavily congested traffic intersections were selected for monitoring the air pollutants. The data generated were analysed using multiple regression statistical tool at 0.05 level of significance. The study revealed that the concentration of air pollutants measured in parts per million for SO2 (0.24), NO2 (0.06), CO (33.1) and PM10 (2.65) in Port Harcourt metropolis exceeded WHO standards for SO2 (±0.00-0.01), NO2 (±0.03-0.06), CO (±3-10) and PM10 (±0.9-1.12). The study revealed that air borne diseases were on the increase in Port Harcourt metropolis. During the rainy season, there was a low prevalence of Air borne diseases in Port Harcourt and this could be attributed to the rainfall which reduces dust and fine particles. At F values of 8.59 and 10.871 respectively, SO2, and PM10 had a significant effect on the occurrence of air borne diseases in Port Harcourt metropolis at P&lt;0.05. As such, SO2, and PM10 gases were responsible for the increase in cardiovascular diseases, reduced lung function, asthma, irritation of the eyes, cough, nausea in Port Harcourt metropolis. To mitigate the effects of atmospheric pollution on human health, urban planning strategies should focus on promoting sustainable transportation options (such as public transit, cycling, and walking), increasing green spaces and planting trees to improve air quality, promoting energy-efficient buildings, and implementing regulations to reduce emissions from industrial sources. Incorporating measures to improve air quality into urban planning decisions can help create healthier and more livable cities for residents.

Environmental strategies to reduce air pollution and their potential impact on heart failure prevention

This research article explores different strategies to reduce air pollution and their potential impact on heart failure prevention. The article reviews current research regarding the effects of atmospheric pollution on cardiovascular health. The authors analyze the role of traffic emissions, industrial processes, and other sources of pollution in the development of heart failure and consider the effectiveness of various environmental strategies in reducing pollution levels. The potential public health benefits of implementing such strategies and possible ways to implement them are also discussed. This article aims to contribute to the development of effective interventions to protect the environment and reduce the risk of heart failure.

Review of the Eco-Environmental Protection Progress in China by the National Pollution Source Census Data Analysis

Based on the results of the first national pollutant source census in 2007 (hereinafter referred to as the first pollutant census) and the second national pollutant source census in 2017 (hereinafter referred to as the second pollutant census) , this paper analyzes the current situation of various pollutants in the past ten years. The differences in the contents of the two censuses, and the comparison of the data from the two censuses, show that China’s ecological and environmental protection work has made positive progress, in which China's ability to comprehensively manage water pollution has been greatly improved, the discharge of water pollutants from industrial sources has been significantly improved, the control effect of atmospheric pollutants has been remarkable, and various environmental indicators have been optimized in a comprehensive manner. However, there are still challenges in environmental protection: the national water pollutant emissions are still huge, of which the contribution of agricultural sources and living sources of water pollutant emissions increased, living sources have become the focus of water pollutant emissions control; the national air pollutant prevention and control potential is huge, industrial sources are still an important source of air pollutant emissions in the country, and mobile sources have become a key focus of air pollution control. At the same time, the changes in the direction of air pollutant control under the background of “carbon peak carbon neutral” are summarized; The disposal and utilization efficiency of solid waste still needs to be strengthened, and the cumulative storage of industrial hazardous waste has increased dramatically. In conclusion, China’s overall pollution prevention and control has made great achievements, and the future ecological environment work has a long way to go. The overall pollution management needs to be based on the "two pollution census", and the precise application of policy.

Seasonal Disparities of Human Health Risk and Particle-Bound Metal Characteristics Associated with Atmospheric Particles in a Fishery Harbor.

The effects of atmospheric pollution from ship emissions have been considered for several harbors worldwide. The health risk assessment and source apportionment of particle-bound metals in a fishery harbor were investigated in this study. The most abundant metal elements in particulate matter (PM) on all sampling days in three seasons were Fe (280.94 ± 136.93 ng/m3), Al (116.40 ± 71.25 ng/m3), and Zn (110.55 ± 26.70 ng/m3). The ratios of V/Ni were 1.44 ± 0.31, 1.48 ± 0.09 and 1.87 ± 0.06 in PM10, PM2.5, and PM1, respectively. Meanwhile, the ratios higher than 1 indicated that fuel oil combustion from ship emission in fishery harbor. The highest deposits of total particle-bound metals in the human respiratory tract were in the head airway (HA), accounting for 76.77 ± 2.29% of the total particle-bound metal concentration, followed by 5.32 ± 0.13% and 2.53 ± 0.15% in the alveolar region (AR) and tracheobronchial (TB) region, respectively. The total cancer risk (CR) of inhalation exposure to local residents exceeded 10-6. Mean total CR values followed the sequence: autumn (1.24 × 10-4) > winter (8.53 × 10-5) > spring (2.77 × 10-6). Source apportionment of related metal emissions was mobile pollution emissions (vehicle/boat) (37.10-48.92%), metal fumes of arc welding exhaust (19.68-34.42%), spray-painting process (12.34-16.24%), combustion emissions (6.32-13.12%), and metal machining processes (9.04-16.31%) in Singda fishing harbor. These results suggest that proper control of heavy metals from each potential source in fishing harbor areas should be carried out to reduce the carcinogenic risk of adverse health effects.

Source-specific health risks of PM2.5-bound toxic metals in Wuhai, a semi-arid city in northwest China

Quantifying the individual impact of each PM2.5-containing source on increasing health risk is essential for mitigating the harmful effects of atmospheric pollutants to human health. However, there remains a limited understanding of these health risks and their association with sources in semi-arid cities. To address this lack of understanding, 20 PM2.5-bound toxic metals (PTMs) were observed at six sampling sites in Wuhai, a typical semi-arid city in northwest China. The spatiotemporal variations, sources, and health risks of PTMs in Wuhai were investigated. Silicon (Si), Ca, Na, Al, Mg, and Fe were the predominant metals, accounting for 90.2 % of total metals. The contents of anthropogenic metals (Cd, Hg, and Pb) were higher during winter and autumn, whereas those of crustal metals (Si, Fe, Cu, Al, and Co) were higher during spring. The sources of PTMs in Wuhai were identified as soil sources (SS, 57.8 %), fugitive dust (FD, 23.3 %), vehicular emissions (VE, 13.4 %), metal smelting (MS, 3.9 %), and coal combustion (CC, 1.7 %). The hazard quotient of Mn and the hazard index of PTMs for children were >1, suggesting a non-carcinogenic health risk for children. The carcinogenic risk of Cr was >1 × 10−6, suggesting a Cr-associated carcinogenic risk for both adults and children in Wuhai. The main sources of non-carcinogenic risk included VE (62.5 %), SS (18.4 %), MS (11.3 %), CC (4.6 %), and FD (3.2 %). Alternatively, the main sources of carcinogenic risks included MS (53.8 %), VE (15.9 %), SS (13.9 %), CC (8.8 %), and FD (7.6 %). Overall, this study suggests that natural sources (SS and FD) are significant contributors to the health risks of PTMs in semi-arid cities. In conclusion, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of PTMs in semi-arid cities and reveals the contribution of each potential source to corresponding health risks.

Air Pollution and Cardiac Diseases: A Review of Experimental Studies.

Air pollution is associated with around 6.5 million premature deaths annually, which are directly related to cardiovascular diseases, and the most dangerous atmospheric pollutants to health are as follows: NO2, SO2, CO, and PM. The mechanisms underlying the observed effects have not yet been clearly defined. This work aims to conduct a narrative review of experimental studies to provide a more comprehensive and multiperspective assessment of how the effect of atmospheric pollutants on cardiac activity can result in the development of cardiac diseases. For this purpose, a review was carried out in databases of experimental studies, excluding clinical trials, and epidemiological and simulation studies. After analyzing the available information, the existence of pathophysiological effects of the different pollutants on cardiac activity from exposure during both short-term and long-term is evident. This narrative review based on experimental studies is a basis for the development of recommendations for public health.

Modeling the impact of cloud seeding to rescind the effect of atmospheric pollutants on natural rainfall

Modeling the impact of cloud seeding to rescind the effect of atmospheric pollutants on natural rainfall

Effect of Atmospheric Deposition of Pollutants on the Concentration of Trace Metals on Some Sun-Dried Food Items Dried at a Non-Vehicular Corridor in Ile-Ife Nigeria

The effect of atmospheric pollution on some sun-dried food items in Ile-Ife, Nigeria was investigated. Six farm produce: cassava (Manihot esculenta), plantain (Musa x paradisiaca), white yam (Dioscorea rotundata), yellow yam (Dioscorea cayenensis), red cocoyam (Xanthosoma sagittifolium) and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) were exposed, for different hours (0 h, 8 h, 20 h, 32 h, 42 h), to the sun at a location far from vehicular activities. Exposed samples were digested and analyzed for Cu, Zn, Ni, Mn, Cd, and Pb using Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). The concentration of Cu, in exposed samples, ranged from mg/kg in sweet potato (32 h exposure) to mg/kg in cocoyam (0 h exposure), while the concentration of Zn ranged from mg/kg in plantain (42 h exposure) to mg/kg in cocoyam (0 h exposure). On the other hand, the concentration of Mn ranged from mg/kg in plantain (42 h exposure) to mg/kg in sweet potato (0 h exposure). Furthermore, the concentration of Ni ranged from mg/kg in yellow yam (32 h exposure) to mg/kg in the plantain (32 h exposure). The concentration of Cd ranged from mg/kg in cassava (32 h exposure) to mg/kg in plantain (20 h exposure). In comparison, the concentration of Pb ranged from mg/kg in cassava (20 h exposure) to mg/kg in plantain (20 h exposure). The study observed that there was no particular pattern in the effect of atmospheric deposition of the pollutants, Cu, Zn, Ni, Mn, Cd, and Pb, on the concentration of these pollutants in the sun-dried farm products, for the different exposure hours. The study believed that the non-uniform pattern could result from differences in the concentrations of the pollutants in the atmosphere. It could also be a result of the different water retention abilities of the respective farm products, which may impact the absorption or evaporation of deposited pollutants on these farm products.

Study of the Immune Status of Kyrgyzstan Population Living Under the Exposure to Atmospheric Air Pollutants

The study of the immune status of the population living in polluted air is relevant, since air pollution caused by transport, industrial facilities adversely affect the state of health and respiratory organs. To conduct a comparative analysis of clinical and instrumental signs of respiratory system disorders in residents of the regions of Kyrgyzstan with varying degrees of air pollution. Research materials and methods: a study was made of the characteristics of atmospheric air in three areas of Kyrgyzstan: in the area of ​​the village. Papan, in the area with. Gulbar of Aravan district and in the area of ​​Osh city in according to GOST17.2.3.01-86. During analysis, dust content, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, formaldehyde, carbon monoxide was determined. Atmospheric pollution significantly affects the human immune system, creating prerequisites for the development of diseases of the respiratory system and the cardiovascular system. Thus, a significant effect of atmospheric pollution on the human immune system has been established, the imbalance of the links of which creates prerequisites for development of respiratory system diseases and the cardiovascular system.

Investigating the Potential Climatic Effects of Atmospheric Pollution across China under the National Clean Air Action Plan

To reduce air pollution, China adopted rigorous control mechanisms and announced the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) in 2013. Here, using OMI satellite, the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Application Center (SEDAC), and Fifth ECMWF (ERA5) data at a 0.25° × 0.25° resolution, we explored changes in NO2, PM, SO2, and O3 and climatology over China in response to the Action Plan between 2004 and 2021. This study attempts to investigate the long term trend analysis of air pollution and climatic variations during two scenarios before (2004–2013) and after (2013–2021) APPCAP. We investigated the climatic effects of air pollution in China before and after APPCAP adoption using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and differential models to assess the contribution of air pollution. The spatial representation analysis demonstrated how air pollution affected climatic factors before and after the APPCAP. Several important findings were derived: (1) the APPCAP significantly influenced air pollution reduction in China post-scenario (2013–2021); (2) the Mann Kendall test investigated that all pollutants showed an increasing trend pre-APPCAP, while they showed a decreasing trend, except for O3, post-APPCAP; (3) for climatic factors, the MK test showed an increasing trend of precipitation and mean minimum air temperature tmin post-APPCAP; (4) innovative trend analysis (ITA) showed a reduction in NO2, SO2, and PM, although O3 showed no trend post-APPCAP; and (5) pre-scenario, NO2 contributed to an increase in the mean maximum air temperature (tmax) by 0.62 °C, PM contributed to raising tmin by 0.41 °C, while O3 reduced the tmax(tmin) by 0.15 °C (0.05 °C). PM increased tmax and precipitation with a magnitude 0.38 °C (7.38 mm), and NO2 contributed to increasing tmin by (0.35 °C), respectively, post-scenario. In particular, post-scenario led to an increase in tmin and precipitation across China. The results and discussion presented in this study can be beneficial for policymakers in China to establish long-term management plans for air pollution and climatological changes.

Spatial aspects of urban air quality management: Estimating the impact of micro-scale urban form on pollution dispersion

Urban planning and design solutions affect urban ventilation conditions, thus mitigating the effects of atmospheric pollution. However, these findings are not being implemented in the planning practice to a sufficient extent, partly due to the lack of specific guidelines. Moreover, many urban air quality monitoring (AQM) sites have low represnentativeness and thus do not provide comprehensive data for effective urban air pollution control with respect to the urban spatial policy. An integrated assessment method based on modelling, simulation, and geospatial data processing tools was used to investigate the impact of micro-scale urban form on the local ventilation conditions and pollution dispersion. The proposed approach combined computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and geographic information system (GIS) tools, and particularly the newly developed Residence Time Index (RTI) - a single CFD-derived parameter quantifying the capabilities of the micro-scale built environment to retain PM10 pollution. Urban segments around monitoring sites in three Polish cities (Gdańsk, Warsaw, and Poznań), characterised by relatively low density and varied urban form typologies, were investigated. The results indicate that in these conditions the following features of the urban form have the strongest correlation with the RTI: plan area density (λP), gross floor area ratio (λGFA), and occlusivity (Oc), making them useful indicators for urban air quality management. On the other hand, PM10 data from the AQM sites are rather poorly linked with urban form indicators, which suggests that in complex urban scenarios a higher spatial resolution of air quality data is required for shaping the spatial policy. The implications from this analysis are useful for the urban planning practice. The developed approach may be also a valuable decision support tool for the assessment of the spatial representativeness of AQM sites.

A simple and precise methodology to determine particulate matter mass in atmospheric filters; validation and application cases

In the past decades, particulate matter (PM) measurements have been used extensively in atmospheric sciences, as it allows studying the evolution of tracers for different atmospheric processes and the effects of atmospheric pollution on human health. However, measuring PM mass requires a constant control of the laboratory conditions due to its capacity to absorb humidity. For this reason, this study was focused on developing a novel, simple and precise methodology to determine the corrections of the filter mass due to humidity changes. The control and corrections are possible using a “control filter”, which is always adapted to the environmental conditions of the laboratory. To check the consistency of this method, it was proved that the mass of any problem filter and that of the control filter behave in a very similar way. This allows quantifying the mass changes of any problem filter by using the control filter, where the problem filters and the control filter must have the same chemical composition and dimensions. To validate this methodology, a comparison was made between the methodology proposed in this study (Method-1) and the one proposed by the EPA (Method-2), which is generally applied. The particulate matter mass (m) was obtained for a problem filter for different weights, achieving similar values using both methods. However, Method-1 still provided reliable mass measurements for relative humidities very different from 50%, even as low as 18%. It was also proved that the adsorption or loss of water by the particulate matter can be neglected, since m is much smaller than the blank filter mass. Method-1 was also employed in several samplings carried out using three PM10 samplers to determine contaminants, such as 7Be and 210Pb, obtaining a good agreement between all particulate masses and activities measured by the three samplers for all samplings.

ELEMENTAL COMPOSITION OF THE PINUS SYLVESTRYS L., P. SIBIRICA DU TOUR AND P. PUMILA (PALL.) RE-GEL POLLEN

This paper presents a study of macro- (potassium, sodium, calcium, magnesium), microelements (copper, zinc, manganese, iron, nickel) and heavy metals (lead, cadmium, mercury) in the pollen of Scots pine, Siberian pine and dwarf pine, growing within the territory of the Republic of Buryatia. The quantitative content of elements in the studied in 2017-2020 samples was determined by the atomic absorption method using a SOLAAR M6 spectrophotometer after acid mineralization in the MARS 6 microwave system. The study of the elemental composition of Siberian pine and dwarf pine pollen is carried out for the first time. It has been shown that pollen, in comparison with needles, contains higher contents of potassium, copper, zinc and lower contents of calcium, which is probably due to the plant organism's need for these elements for normal growth and fertilization. The paper presents a biplot of PCA-analysis, reflecting the effect of atmospheric pollution on the accumulation of heavy metals in Scots pine pollen, which is expressed in an increased content of iron, lead, cadmium, mercury, and a reduced manganese in comparison with the background territories. Biplot also shows the dependence of the studied elements content on the species origin of pine pollen. In general, the content of toxic elements does not exceed the maximum permissible values, and the concentrations of macro- and microelements in pine pollen are within the sufficient or normal limits for the plants vital function. The data obtained can be considered as one of the plant raw materials ecological and sanitary-hygienic safety indicators for indicated plant species of the flora of Buryatia (Russia).

Mapping of the cost of atmospheric corrosion of zinc and galvanised steel due to the effect of atmospheric pollution in the Mexico City Metropolitan area

ABSTRACT The deterioration of materials due to the effect of atmospheric pollution generates a cost to society because the maintenance and replacement of degraded materials. Galvanised steel is used in electrical industry to build electrical transmission towers (ETT). The objective of the study was to estimate the annual maintenance cost of galvanised steel used in the construction of ETT. The maintenance cost for galvanised steel was estimated considering the cost of the material surface area and the difference between the maintenance interval of clean and contaminated areas. Maps of intervals and maintenance costs were obtained for galvanised steel (85 and 100 µm), which are the thicknesses regulated in Mexico for ETT. In addition, an ArcGis geographic information system was used for a spatial representation of data from the anthropogenic environment. The mapping of areas at risk of corrosion shows that in the northwest zone, ETT presents the highest maintenance costs for the year 2019. For galvanised steel thicknesses of 85 and 100 µm, there are annual costs of, respectively, 8.68 and 10.16 USD/m2.

Reducing future air-pollution-related premature mortality over Europe by mitigating emissions from the energy sector: assessing an 80 % renewable energies scenario

Abstract. Overall, European air quality has worsened in recent decades as a consequence of increased anthropogenic emissions, in particular from the power generation sector. The evidence of the effects of atmospheric pollution (and particularly fine particulate matter, PM2.5) on human health is now unquestionable; it is mainly associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, along with morbidity and even mortality. These effects may even strengthen in the future as a consequence of climate penalties and future changes in the projected population. For all these reasons, the main objective of this contribution is the estimation of the annual excess premature deaths (PD) associated with PM2.5 in the present (1991–2010) and future (2031–2050) European population using non-linear exposure–response functions. The endpoints included are lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), low respiratory infections (LRI), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) and other non-communicable diseases (other NCD). PM2.5 concentrations come from coupled chemistry–climate regional simulations under present and future (RCP8.5) scenarios. The cases assessed include the estimation of the present incidence of PD (PRE-P2010), the quantification of the role of a changing climate in PD (FUT-P2010) and the importance of changes in the population projected for the year 2050 in the incidence of excess PD (FUT-P2050). Two additional cases (REN80-P2010 and REN80-P2050) evaluate the impact on premature mortality rates of a mitigation scenario in which 80 % of European energy production comes from renewable sources. The results indicate that PM2.5 accounts for nearly 895 000 (95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 725 000–1 056 000) annual excess PD over Europe, with IHD being the largest contributor to premature mortality associated with fine particles in both present and future scenarios. The case that isolates the effects of a climate penalty (FUT-P2010) estimates a variation of +0.2 % in mortality rates over the whole domain. However, under this scenario, the incidence of PD over central Europe will benefit from a decrease in PM2.5 (−2.2 PD/100 000 inhabitants), while in eastern (+1.3 PD/100 000 inhabitants) and western (+0.4 PD/100 000 inhabitants) Europe, PD will increase due to increased PM2.5 levels. The changes in the projected population (FUT-P2050) will lead to a large increase in annual excess PD (1 540 000, 95 % CI 1 247 000–1 818 000; +71.96 % with respect to PRE-P2010 and +71.67 % with respect to FUT-P2010) due to the ageing of the European population. Last, the mitigation scenario (REN80-P2050) demonstrates that the effects of a mitigation policy of increasing the ratio of renewable sources in the energy mix could lead to a decrease of over 60 000 (95 % CI 48 500–70 900) annual PD for the year 2050 (a decrease of −4 % in comparison with the no-mitigation scenario FUT-P2050). In spite of the uncertainties inherent in future estimations, this contribution reveals the need of governments and public entities to take action and choose air pollution mitigation policies.