Weakening Of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Research Articles

Timescales of AMOC decline in response to fresh water forcing

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is predicted to weaken over the coming century due to warming from greenhouse gases and increased input of fresh water into the North Atlantic, however there is considerable uncertainty as to the amount and rate of AMOC weakening. Understanding what controls the rate and timescale of AMOC weakening may help to reduce this uncertainty and hence reduce the uncertainty surrounding associated impacts. As a first step towards this we consider the timescales associated with weakening in response to idealized freshening scenarios. Here we explore timescales of AMOC weakening in response to a freshening of the North Atlantic in a suite of experiments with an eddy-permitting global climate model (GCM). When the rate of fresh water added to the North Atlantic is small (0.1 Sv; 1 Sv $$=1\times 10^6$$ m $$^3$$ /s), the timescale of AMOC weakening depends mainly on the rate of fresh water input itself and can be longer than a century. When the rate of fresh water added is large ( $$\ge$$ 0.3 Sv) however, the timescale is a few decades and is insensitive to the actual rate of fresh water input. This insensitivity is because with a greater rate of fresh water input the advective feedbacks become more important at exporting fresh anomalies, so the rate of freshening is similar. We find advective feedbacks from: an export of fresh anomalies by the mean flow; less volume import through the Bering Strait; a weakening AMOC transporting less subtropical water northwards; and anomalous subtropical circulations which amplify export of the fresh anomalies. This latter circulation change is driven itself by the presence of fresh anomalies exported from the subpolar gyre through geostrophy. This feedback has not been identified in previous model studies and when the rate of freshening is strong it is found to dominate the total export of fresh anomalies, and hence the timescale of AMOC decline. Although results may be model dependent, qualitatively similar mechanisms are also found in a single experiment with a different GCM.

Responses and mechanisms of East Asian winter and summer monsoons to weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation using the FGOALS‐g2 model

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the responses and mechanisms of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through three perturbation experiments with different intensities of freshwater hosing in the North Atlantic, using the Flexible Global Ocean – Atmosphere – Land System Model, Grid‐point Version 2. These experiments show that a subtle weakening of AMOC does not significantly influence either the EAWM or the EASM. When AMOC weakens more substantially, northerly wind anomalies emerge in East Asia throughout the year, strengthening the EAWM and weakening the EASM. The northerly wind anomalies result from an anomalous westward sea level pressure (SLP) gradient, namely positive SLP anomalies across Eurasia and negative anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP). In winter, negative WNP SLP anomalies are found in mid‐high latitudes. They are caused by anomalous stationary wave activity, which is associated with the Aleutian Iceland seesaw teleconnection. In summer, negative WNP SLP anomalies are present in the subtropics, and are linked with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the north of the Philippian Sea. This cyclonic circulation anomaly is induced by the anomalous warm water in the subsurface of the South China Sea and Philippian Sea through the Gill mechanism.

North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability

The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

Coherent Response of Antarctic Intermediate Water and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation During the Last Deglaciation: Reconciling Contrasting Neodymium Isotope Reconstructions From the Tropical Atlantic

AbstractAntarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) plays important roles in the global climate system and the global ocean nutrient and carbon cycles. However, it is unclear how AAIW responds to global climate changes. In particular, neodymium isotopic composition (εNd) reconstructions from different locations from the tropical Atlantic have led to a debate on the relationship between northward penetration of AAIW into the tropical Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability during the last deglaciation. We resolve this controversy by studying the transient oceanic evolution during the last deglaciation using a neodymium‐enabled ocean model. Our results suggest a coherent response of AAIW and AMOC: when AMOC weakens, the northward penetration and transport of AAIW decrease while its depth and thickness increase. Our study highlights that as part of the return flow of the North Atlantic Deep Water, the northward penetration of AAIW in the Atlantic is determined predominately by AMOC intensity. Moreover, the inconsistency among different tropical Atlantic εNd reconstructions is reconciled by considering their corresponding core locations and depths, which were influenced by different water masses in the past. The very radiogenic water from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, which was previously overlooked in the interpretations of deglacial εNd variability, can be transported to shallow layers during active AMOC and modulates εNd in the tropical Atlantic. Changes in the AAIW core depth must also be considered. Thus, interpretation of εNd reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic is more complicated than suggested in previous studies.

Sensitivity of open-water ice growth and ice concentration evolution in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model

A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model is applied to investigate to what degree the area-thickness distribution of new ice formed in open water affects the ice and ocean properties. Two sensitivity experiments are performed which modify the horizontal-to-vertical aspect ratio of open-water ice growth. The resulting changes in the Arctic sea-ice concentration strongly affect the surface albedo, the ocean heat release to the atmosphere, and the sea-ice production. The changes are further amplified through a positive feedback mechanism among the Arctic sea ice, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the surface air temperature in the Arctic, as the Fram Strait sea ice import influences the freshwater budget in the North Atlantic Ocean. Anomalies in sea-ice transport lead to changes in sea surface properties of the North Atlantic and the strength of AMOC. For the Southern Ocean, the most pronounced change is a warming along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), owing to the interhemispheric bipolar seasaw linked to AMOC weakening. Another insight of this study lies on the improvement of our climate model. The ocean component FESOM is a newly developed ocean-sea ice model with an unstructured mesh and multi-resolution. We find that the subpolar sea-ice boundary in the Northern Hemisphere can be improved by tuning the process of open-water ice growth, which strongly influences the sea ice concentration in the marginal ice zone, the North Atlantic circulation, salinity and Arctic sea ice volume. Since the distribution of new ice on open water relies on many uncertain parameters and the knowledge of the detailed processes is currently too crude, it is a challenge to implement the processes realistically into models. Based on our sensitivity experiments, we conclude a pronounced uncertainty related to open-water sea ice growth which could significantly affect the climate system sensitivity.

Effect of increasing Arctic river runoff on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: a model study

An increasing amount of freshwater has been observed to enter the Arctic Ocean from the six largest Eurasian rivers over the past several decades. The increasing trend is projected to continue in the twenty-first century according to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled models. The present study found that water flux from rivers to the Arctic Ocean at the end of the century will be 1.4 times that in 1950 according to CMIP5 projection results under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The effect of increasing Arctic river runoff on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) was investigated using an ocean-ice coupled model. Results obtained from two numerical experiments show that 100, 150 and 200 years after the start of an increase in the Arctic river runoff at a rate of 0.22%/a, the AMOC will weaken by 0.6 (3%), 1.2 (7%) and 1.8 (11%) Sv. AMOC weakening is mainly caused by freshwater transported from increasing Arctic river runoff inhibiting the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). As the AMOC weakens, the deep seawater age will become older throughout the Atlantic Basin owing to the increasing of Arctic runoff.

Collapse of the North American ice saddle 14,500 years ago caused widespread cooling and reduced ocean overturning circulation

AbstractCollapse of ice sheets can cause significant sea level rise and widespread climate change. We examine the climatic response to meltwater generated by the collapse of the Cordilleran‐Laurentide ice saddle (North America) ~14.5 thousand years ago (ka) using a high‐resolution drainage model coupled to an ocean‐atmosphere‐vegetation general circulation model. Equivalent to 7.26 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years, the meltwater caused a 6 sverdrup weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling of 1–5°C. The greatest cooling is in the Atlantic sector high latitudes during Boreal winter (by 5–10°C), but there is also strong summer warming of 1–3°C over eastern North America. Following recent suggestions that the saddle collapse was triggered by the Bølling warming event at ~14.7–14.5 ka, we conclude that this robust submillennial mechanism may have initiated the end of the warming and/or the Older Dryas cooling through a forced AMOC weakening.

Complementary constraints from carbon (13C) and nitrogen (15N) isotopes on the glacial ocean's soft‐tissue biological pump

AbstractA three‐dimensional, process‐based model of the ocean's carbon and nitrogen cycles, including 13C and 15N isotopes, is used to explore effects of idealized changes in the soft‐tissue biological pump. Results are presented from one preindustrial control run (piCtrl) and six simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with increasing values of the spatially constant maximum phytoplankton growth rate μmax, which accelerates biological nutrient utilization mimicking iron fertilization. The default LGM simulation, without increasing μmax and with a shallower and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and increased sea ice cover, leads to 280 Pg more respired organic carbon (Corg) storage in the deep ocean with respect to piCtrl. Dissolved oxygen concentrations in the colder glacial thermocline increase, which reduces water column denitrification and, with delay, nitrogen fixation, thus increasing the ocean's fixed nitrogen inventory and decreasing δ15NNO3 almost everywhere. This simulation already fits sediment reconstructions of carbon and nitrogen isotopes relatively well, but it overestimates deep ocean δ13CDIC and underestimates δ15NNO3 at high latitudes. Increasing μmax enhances Corg and lowers deep ocean δ13CDIC, improving the agreement with sediment data. In the model's Antarctic and North Pacific Oceans modest increases in μmax result in higher δ15NNO3 due to enhanced local nutrient utilization, improving the agreement with reconstructions there. Models with moderately increased μmax fit both isotope data best, whereas large increases in nutrient utilization are inconsistent with nitrogen isotopes although they still fit the carbon isotopes reasonably well. The best fitting models reproduce major features of the glacial δ13CDIC, δ15N, and oxygen reconstructions while simulating increased Corg by 510–670 Pg compared with the preindustrial ocean. These results are consistent with the idea that the soft‐tissue pump was more efficient during the LGM. Both circulation and biological nutrient utilization could contribute. However, these conclusions are preliminary given our idealized experiments, which do not consider changes in benthic denitrification and spatially inhomogenous changes in aeolian iron fluxes. The analysis illustrates interactions between the carbon and nitrogen cycles as well as the complementary constraints provided by their isotopes. Whereas carbon isotopes are sensitive to circulation changes and indicate well the three‐dimensional Corg distribution, nitrogen isotopes are more sensitive to biological nutrient utilization.

Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of ocean thermohaline circulation. Melting of Greenland's ice sheet is freshening the North Atlantic; however, whether the augmented freshwater flux is disrupting the AMOC is unclear. Dense Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by winter cooling of saline North Atlantic water and subsequent convection, is a key component of the deep southward return flow of the AMOC. Although LSW formation recently decreased, it also reached historically high values in the mid-1990s, making the connection to the freshwater flux unclear. Here we derive a new estimate of the recent freshwater flux from Greenland using updated GRACE satellite data, present new flux estimates for heat and salt from the North Atlantic into the Labrador Sea and explain recent variations in LSW formation. We suggest that changes in LSW can be directly linked to recent freshening, and suggest a possible link to AMOC weakening.

Millennial to orbital-scale variations of drought intensity in the Eastern Mediterranean

Millennial to orbital-scale rainfall changes in the Mediterranean region and corresponding variations in vegetation patterns were the result of large-scale atmospheric reorganizations. In spite of recent efforts to reconstruct this variability using a range of proxy archives, the underlying physical mechanisms have remained elusive. Through the analysis of a new high-resolution sedimentary section from Lake Van (Turkey) along with climate modeling experiments, we identify massive droughts in the Eastern Mediterranean for the past four glacial cycles, which have a pervasive link with known intervals of enhanced North Atlantic glacial iceberg calving, weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Dansgaard-Oeschger cold conditions. On orbital timescales, the topographic effect of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and periods with minimum insolation seasonality further exacerbated drought intensities by suppressing both summer and winter precipitation.

Holocene North Atlantic Overturning in an atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice model compared to proxy‐based reconstructions

AbstractClimate and ocean circulation in the North Atlantic region changed over the course of the Holocene, partly because of disintegrating ice sheets and partly because of an orbital‐induced insolation trend. In the Nordic Seas, this impact was accompanied by a rather small, but significant, amount of Greenland ice sheet melting. We have employed the EMIC LOVECLIM and compared our model simulations with proxy‐based reconstructions of δ13C, sortable silt, and magnetic susceptibility (κ) used to infer changes in past ocean circulation over the last 9000 years. The various reconstructions exhibit different long‐term evolutions suggesting changes in either the overturning of the Atlantic in total or of subcomponents of the ocean circulation, such as the overflow waters across the Greenland‐Scotland ridge. Thus, the question arises whether these reconstructions are consistent with each other or not. A comparison with model results indicates that δ13C, employed as an indicator of overturning, agrees well with the long‐term evolution of the modeled Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The model results suggest that different long‐term trends in subcomponents of the AMOC, such as Iceland‐Scotland overflow water, are consistent with proxy‐based reconstructions and allow some of the reconstructions to be reconciled with the modeled and reconstructed (from δ13C) AMOC evolution. We find a weak early Holocene AMOC, which recovers by 7 kyr B.P. and shows a weak increasing trend of 88 ± 1 mSv/kyr toward present, with relatively low variability on centennial to millennial timescales.

Thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent during Termination 1

Abstract. During Termination 1, millennial-scale weakening events of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) supposedly produced major changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the western South Atlantic, and in mean air temperatures (MATs) over southeastern South America. It has been suggested, for instance, that the Brazil Current (BC) would strengthen (weaken) and the North Brazil Current (NBC) would weaken (strengthen) during slowdown (speed-up) events of the AMOC. This anti-phase pattern was claimed to be a necessary response to the decreased North Atlantic heat piracy during periods of weak AMOC. However, the thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent is so far largely unknown. Here we address this issue, presenting high-temporal-resolution SST and MAT records from the BC and southeastern South America, respectively. We identify a warming in the western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which is followed first by a drop and then by increasing temperatures during the Bølling–Allerød, in phase with an existing SST record from the NBC. Additionally, a similar SST evolution is shown by a southernmost eastern South Atlantic record, suggesting a South Atlantic-wide pattern in SST evolution during most of Termination 1. Over southeastern South America, our MAT record shows a two-step increase during Termination 1, synchronous with atmospheric CO2 rise (i.e., during the second half of HS1 and during the Younger Dryas), and lagging abrupt SST changes by several thousand years. This delay corroborates the notion that the long duration of HS1 was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.

The sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to enhanced freshwater discharge along the entire, eastern and western coast of Greenland

The possible responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to increased freshwater discharge along the Greenland coast has become an issue of growing concern given the increasing rate of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melting. A recent model study suggested a weakened AMOC of about 13–30 % when a freshwater anomaly of 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) was released along the entire Greenland coast during the late twentieth century (1965–2000). In this study we use a fully coupled climate model to examine the sensitivity of AMOC to a similar amount of freshwater forcing, but released separately along the eastern, the western and the entire Greenland coast. Our results show that in all three cases there is a general weakening of the AMOC mainly due to a reduced formation of Labrador Sea Water. Moreover, when additional freshwater is released along the eastern coast of Greenland, the AMOC weakens more compared to the other two cases. The different degree of convective mixing reduction in the Irminger Sea is the main reason for the spread in AMOC responses in the three freshwater-hosing experiments. Compared to the other two experiments, the eastern-coast experiment shows a relative warming in the Labrador Sea and the generation of a negative Greenland tip jet-like wind-pattern anomaly. These anomalies lead to a weaker convective mixing in the southern Irminger Sea, and result subsequently in less formation of the simulated Upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW) in the eastern coast experiment. This study therefore highlights a potential important role for ULSW formation in determining the sensitivity of the AMOC in response to large GrIS melting.

Processes and mechanisms for the model SST biases in the North Atlantic and North Pacific: A link with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

AbstractAlmost all of CMIP5 climate models show cold SST biases in the extratropical North Atlantic (ENA) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) as well as in the North Pacific which are commonly linked with the weak simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). A weak AMOC and its associated reduced northward oceanic heat transport are associated with a cooling of the ENA Ocean, whereas the TNA cooling is attributable to both weak AMOC and surface heat flux. The cold biases in the ENA and TNA have remote impacts on the SST bias in the North Pacific. Here we use coupled ocean‐atmosphere model experiments to show the mechanisms and pathways by which the ENA and TNA affect the North Pacific. The model simulations demonstrate that the cooling SST bias in the North Pacific is largely due to the remote effect of the cooling SST bias in the ENA, while the remote impact of the TNA cooling SST bias is of secondary importance. The ENA cooling bias triggers the circumglobal teleconnection via the Northern Hemisphere annular mode, producing a strengthening of the Aleutian low, an enhancement of the southward Ekman and Oyashio cold advection, and thus a cooling SST in the North Pacific. In contrast, the TNA cooling produces a surface high extending to the eastern tropical North Pacific, inducing the northeasterly wind anomalies north, northerly cross‐equatorial wind anomalies, and northwesterly wind anomalies south of the equator. This C‐shape wind anomaly pattern generates an SST warming in the tropical southeastern Pacific, which eventually leads to an SST warming in the tropical central and western Pacific by the wind‐evaporation‐SST feedback. The tropical Pacific warming in turn leads to an SST cooling in the North Pacific by the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern.

Response of the subtropical North Atlantic surface hydrography on deglacial and Holocene AMOC changes

AbstractThe North Atlantic subtropical gyre (STG) circulates warm waters between 10 and 40°N and is a potential area of heat storage during periods of reduced North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), when warm salt‐rich waters are retained in the subtropics. In this study, we investigated multicentennial to millennial scale changes in subtropical North Atlantic hydrography in response to AMOC changes during the last deglaciation and early Holocene, using sediment cores MD08‐3180 and GEOFAR KF16. The coring site (38°N) is situated near the boundary between transitional eastern North Atlantic waters and STG waters that is formed by the Azores Front. Hydrographic changes are reconstructed using new stable isotope data of benthic and subsurface dwelling planktonic foraminifera, Mg/Ca measurements on planktonic foraminifera, and planktonic foraminifera abundances that are supplemented with published sea surface temperature and stable isotope data. These multiproxy data indicate a close coupling between the latitudinal position of the northern STG boundary and deglacial AMOC modes. During weak AMOC phases (Heinrich event 1, Younger Dryas (YD), 8.2 ka event), Northern Hemisphere subpolar water reached down to the northern STG boundary, displacing the boundary southward. During the Bølling‐Allerød warm period, a strong warming trend of the subtropical region to 19°C is observed. A cooling of the sea surface temperature by 6°C during the YD is accompanied by ongoing northward transport of warm subsurface water that might have contributed to the restart of AMOC.

Subsurface North Atlantic warming as a trigger of rapid cooling events: evidence from the early Pleistocene (MIS 31–19)

Abstract. Subsurface water column dynamics in the subpolar North Atlantic were reconstructed in order to improve the understanding of the cause of abrupt ice-rafted detritus (IRD) events during cold periods of the early Pleistocene. We used paired Mg / Ca and δ18O measurements of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral – sin.), deep-dwelling planktonic foraminifera, to estimate the subsurface temperatures and seawater δ18O from a sediment core from Gardar Drift, in the subpolar North Atlantic. Carbon isotopes of benthic and planktonic foraminifera from the same site provide information about the ventilation and water column nutrient gradient. Mg / Ca-based temperatures and seawater δ18O suggest increased subsurface temperatures and salinities during ice-rafting, likely due to northward subsurface transport of subtropical waters during periods of weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Planktonic carbon isotopes support this suggestion, showing coincident increased subsurface ventilation during deposition of IRD. Subsurface accumulation of warm waters would have resulted in basal warming and break-up of ice-shelves, leading to massive iceberg discharges in the North Atlantic. The release of heat stored at the subsurface to the atmosphere would have helped to restart the AMOC. This mechanism is in agreement with modelling and proxy studies that observe a subsurface warming in the North Atlantic in response to AMOC slowdown during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3.

Contribution of enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation to Antarctic warm events and millennial-scale atmospheric CO2 increase

During Marine Isotope Stage 3, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakened significantly on a millennial time-scale leading to Greenland stadials. Ice core records reveal that each Greenland stadial is associated with a warming over Antarctica, so-called Antarctic Isotope Maximum (AIM), and that atmospheric CO2 increases with Antarctic temperature during the long Greenland stadials. Here we perform transient simulations spanning the period 50–34 ka B.P. with two Earth System Models (LOVECLIM and the UVic ESCM) to understand the possible link between changes in the AMOC, changes in high latitude Southern Hemispheric climate and evolution of atmospheric CO2. We find that oceanic carbon releases due to the AMOC resumption during stadial/interstadial transitions lead to an atmospheric CO2 increase. However, the atmospheric CO2 increases observed during the first parts of AIM12 (∼47.6 ka B.P.) and AIM8 (∼39.8 ka B.P.) occur during periods of weak AMOC (HS5 and HS4 respectively) and could instead be explained by enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water transport. Enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation is shown to effectively ventilate the deep Pacific carbon and lead to CO2 outgassing into the atmosphere. In addition, changes in the AMOC alone are not sufficient to explain the largest Antarctic Isotope Maxima (namely AIM12 and AIM8). Stronger formation of Antarctic Bottom Water during AIM12 and AIM8 would enhance the southern high latitude warming and lead to a better agreement with high southern latitude paleoproxy records. The robustness of this southern warming response is tested using an eddy-permitting coupled ocean sea–ice model. We show that stronger Antarctic Bottom Water formation contributes to Southern Ocean surface warming by increasing the Southern Ocean meridional heat transport.

Multimodel analysis on the response of the AMOC under an increase of radiative forcing and its symmetrical reversal

The response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to an increase of radiative forcing (ramp-up) and a subsequent reversal of radiative forcing (ramp-down) is analyzed for four different global climate models. Due to changes in ocean temperature and hydrological cycle, all models show a weakening of the AMOC during the ramp-up phase. Once the external forcing is reversed, the results become model dependent. For IPSL-CM5A-LR, the AMOC continues its weakening trend for most of the ramp-down experiment. For HadGEM2-ES, the AMOC trend reverses once the external forcing also reverses, without recovering its initial value. For EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-LR the recovery is anomalously strong yielding an AMOC overshoot. A robust linear dependency can be established between AMOC and density difference between North Atlantic (NA) deep water formation region and South Atlantic (SA). In particular, AMOC evolution is primarily controlled by a meridional salinity contrast between these regions. During the warming scenario, the subtropical Atlantic becomes saltier while the NA experiences a net freshening which favours an AMOC weakening. The different behaviour in the models during the ramp-down is dependent on the response of the ocean at the boundaries of NA and SA. The way in which the positive salinity anomaly stored in the subtropical Atlantic during the ramp-up is subsequently released elsewhere, characterizes the recovery. An out-of-phase response of the salinity transport at \(48^{\circ }\hbox {N}\) and \(34^{\circ }\hbox {S}\) boundaries is able to control the meridional density contrast between NA and SA during the transient experiments. Such a non-synchronized response is mainly controlled by changes in gyre salinity transport rather than by changes in overturning transport, thus suggesting a small role of the salt advection feedback in the evolution of the AMOC.

Linear weakening of the AMOC in response to receding glacial ice sheets in CCSM3

AbstractThe transient response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to a deglacial ice sheet retreat is studied using the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), with a focus on orographic effects rather than meltwater discharge. It is found that the AMOC weakens significantly (41%) in response to the deglacial ice sheet retreat. The AMOC weakening follows the decrease of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet volume linearly, with no evidence of abrupt thresholds. A wind‐driven mechanism is proposed to explain the weakening of the AMOC: lowering the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets induces a northward shift of the westerlies, which causes a rapid eastward sea ice transport and expanded sea ice cover over the subpolar North Atlantic; this expanded sea ice insulates the ocean from heat loss and leads to suppressed deep convection and a weakened AMOC. A sea ice‐ocean positive feedback could be further established between the AMOC decrease and sea ice expansion.

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.